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wings folded
5th Jan 2013, 11:53
So, we read of the wettest or coldest or whatever month/year since records began.

On the day records began, could nobody remember what the weather was like yesterday?

"I have started keeping records, Jim, what was it like yesterday?"

"No idea, Bob, nobody was keeping records."

arcniz
5th Jan 2013, 13:06
Since records began...
So, we read of the wettest or coldest or whatever month/year since records began.

On the day records began, could nobody remember what the weather was like yesterday?

"I have started keeping records, Jim, what was it like yesterday?"

"No idea, Bob, nobody was keeping records."



The distinction is that Records tend to want to be methodical, whereas History inclines toward the anecdotal. And people settle for simple, unvarnished ditzy.

Injection of systematic methodicity into near anything quickly stabilizes the process and normalizes the errors. The data may still be wrong, but it will be systematically wrong, which permits interested parties to work backward, when motivated, to account for some or al of the errors.

As for climate -- and a lot of other things, Mama Nature has been keeping records for a looong time. Now that we have computers to use as filing cabinets, accessing those records becomes easier. Plow through the 1500 pages (online) of the UN Committe on Climate draft report for 2014, if you wish to see how that works.

One predicts that before the end of the current century, someone somewhere will have put together a simulation of everything that has happened on planet Earth since it was cool enough to do rain. Over a thousand years or so going forward, the precision of that simulation will be regularly increased by endlessly churning computers and process-minders, to the point where one will be able to select any 1-second slice inside the last few billion years and for that see a Googlish sort of information gateway that will allow inquiry into the exact (simulated) state of a few hundred billion processes and phenomena at any place specified for exactly that time in history. After a few thousand more years, it will be as near to perfect as the process allows, better than the morning news, and the imagined world of the simulation will merge seamlessly with the real world of what we optimistically call Reality.

sillytwistedboy
5th Jan 2013, 15:11
I bet they still wont know with any certainty, what it's going to do tomorrow, though.

Ancient Observer
5th Jan 2013, 16:33
it is my theory that the UK Met Office has all those super high powered computers to allow the weather folk to visit the gambling sites. They then place bets on what tomorrow's weather will be, and depending on the odds they get, they create tomorrow's weather forecast.
I tried this theory on the Met Office boss one day in Majestic Wine Warehouse, and he didn't know how they did it, but he said that he hoped it wasn't by betting. Not that he would know, as he was a beancounter. His saving grace is that he's ppl.

G-CPTN
5th Jan 2013, 17:46
CDs are old hat nowadays.

B Fraser
5th Jan 2013, 17:57
When they say he have had the warmest summer for 30 years, the lentil knitters scream "Global Warming !" when the facts are that it was warmer 31 years ago.

What is also quietly forgotten is that many of the measuring sites bear no resemblance today to how they were when they were installed. Take the observing site at LHR (or 03772 if memory serves me correctly) which is on the north side half way down 28R (showing my age now :{). It used to be green fields all around and now black tarmac and air conditioning units belching warm air stretch as far as the eye can see in all directions. Add pairs of Trent 700s wafting air across the Stevenson screen every 90 seconds and hey presto, the records show an upward trend in temperature.

:ugh:

Temp Spike
5th Jan 2013, 18:30
Someone scientist from Arizona State told me that the earths poles were canting more to the horizontal in relation to the sun, over the past hundred years or so.

aviate1138
5th Jan 2013, 18:33
Have look at some of these observations........

Not Meterologists but all manner of sailors, priests, scientists of their time.

You can go for centuries back into prehistory.

Frankly the weather we have presently seems quite average..... despite Warmist Doom laden predictions.

1650_1699 (http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1650_1699.htm)

Takan Inchovit
5th Jan 2013, 19:32
I'd heard they had some pretty rough weather around the time of Sodom and Gomorrah.

Apparently there was a bit of a deluge a while back too, it's all so unpredictable.






TI

con-pilot
5th Jan 2013, 19:59
Not Meterologists but all manner of sailors, priests, scientists of their time.



To fill in a box while at university, I took a course in meteorology, as in the history of. From about the time the first railroads, telegraph lines were laid until really the mid 1930s, nearly all temperature reading were not taken by weathermen/meteorologists, but by the railroad station masters or their assistants, at least in the US.

They walked outside, look at a thermometer hanging on an outside wall, then send the report in via the telegraph. Hell, the first proper thermometer wasn't invented until around 1640 if I remember correctly.

No one back then reported in tenths or hundreds of degrees, they just reported it in rounded off temperatures. And if is was really cold and windy, they just ran out, glanced at the thermometer and reported what they thought it read. What the hell was the difference between 19 below zero or 21 degrees below, it was still too damn cold to be wasting time trying to get an accurate reading while freezing their butts off. :p

G-CPTN
5th Jan 2013, 21:13
When you consider the variations of temperatures across the country (UK, never mind the United States), actual temperatures can be misleading.

It was interesting to read accounts of the 'great floods' (which followed periods of heavy rain or melting snow).

1771 was notable as our bridge was the sole survivor of the floods which scourged our valley.

The present seven arched bridge was completed in 1674 and is the sole bridge from source to mouth of the Tyne to remain standing after the severe floods of 1771.

16th November 1771:- Heavy rains flooded the rivers Tyne, Wear and Tees, washing away most bridges.
From:- 1750_1799 (http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1750_1799.htm)

G-CPTN
5th Jan 2013, 21:49
The Central England Temperature (CET) record is a meteorological dataset originally published by Professor Gordon Manley in 1953 and subsequently extended and updated in 1974, following many decades of painstaking work. The monthly mean surface air temperatures, for the Midlands region of England, are given (in degrees Celsius) from the year 1659 to the present.
This record represents the longest series of monthly temperature observations in existence. It is a valuable dataset for meteorologists and climate scientists. It is monthly from 1659, and a daily version has been produced from 1772. The monthly means from November 1722 onwards are given to a precision of 0.1C. The earliest years of the series, from 1659 to October 1722 inclusive, for the most part only have monthly means given to the nearest degree or half a degree, though there is a small 'window' of 0.1 degree precision from 1699 to 1706 inclusive. This reflects the number, accuracy, reliability and geographical spread of the temperature records that were available for the years in question.Trends revealed by the series.
During the 18th and 19th centuries, a cool period which coincided with snowy winters and generally cool summers, the temperatures fluctuated widely but with little trend.
From 1910, temperatures increased slightly until about 1950 when they flattened before a sharp rising trend began in about 1975.
Temperatures in the most recent decade (years 2001-2010) were slightly higher in all seasons than the long-term average.Extremes click here (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_England_temperature#Extrema).

Coldest:-


The coldest year was 1740 at a mean 6.84 C.
The coldest ever month was January 1795 with a mean temperature of -3.1C.
60 years have passed since the last time a coldest month record was broken, the coldest February in 1947 (mean temperature -1.9C), breaking a record set in 1895.
The coldest winter (December, January, February) was in 1684 with a mean of -1.17C. The devastating winter centred on January 1963 was the 3rd coldest (mean -0.33C).
The coolest summer was in 1725 with a mean of 13.10C.
Four months' (March, May, June and September) record coldest temperatures were set in the 17th century.

Donkey497
5th Jan 2013, 22:04
Can someone explain to me the reason why we, Homo Sapiens, as a species are arrogant enough to assume that the current climate MUST remain constant as time moves on?

Historical (physical) record in rock,ice & trees clearly illustrates that the ball of molten Iron thinly covered by a scab of rock that we all live on like mites on an elephant has gone through many periods of both high and low global temperatures, so why should these no longer be allowed to take place?

What makes us so special that natural events should be interrupted solely for our comfort and convenieince?

Perhaps the climate changing is just the planet's method of self regulation to limit the amount of parasitic interruption to it's own (much longer) life cycle, or maybe our time, as a species, to end is approaching.


I'm not suggesting that controlling our energy use, or developing new sources of energy or even improving transport systems is a bad thing, but I am questioning why the topic gets rammed down our collective throats on an hourly basis.

I have decided that I may be developing grumpy tendencies......

Sunnyjohn
5th Jan 2013, 22:16
CDs are old hat nowadays.
I tried making my CD's into old hats but none of 'em fitted.
Incidentally, they said the same thing about vinyl and its selling better than ever. No doubt books will disappear because of Kindle. Any more prophesies for 2013?

Krystal n chips
6th Jan 2013, 05:43
" Take the observing site at LHR "

True, up to a point but with the criteria you mention hardly a representative location.... so now, back to the rest of the UK.

As another poster has kindly pointed out, nature has provided a data bank covering several millenium regarding variations in the climate.

What nature didn't provide however, was detailed scientific analysis and observations as to why these changes were induced globally.

Back to the present. Whilst there have always been exceptional adverse weather occurences "since records began" etc, only the most myopic would have failed to notice the changes in our weather here in the UK.

The seasons no longer have a definitive, or rather a marked definitive change from one to the next and haven't had since the 80's at least..forget the so called "events" therfore.

The flora and fauna also give a clue..the cycles are beginning much earlier and ending much later than in the not too distant past. Nature ,in this respect, is usually ahead of the game when it comes to adapting..unlike humans.

Given the numerous statements from so many sources, some credible, some with their own agenda, and some that have more than a grain of truth within them, allied to media coverage, then for the layman ( which most of us are in purely scientific terms ) it's hard to sort the wheat frm the chaff to be honest.

But when the Arctic ice cap starts to do a vanishing act, when Antartica does the same, when chunks of Greenland start to appear from under the ice and when you can see and experience the changes with your own eyes, then it's patently obvious the climate is, and has been, changing.

ORAC
6th Jan 2013, 07:02
.......Old Weather (http://www.oldweather.org/why_scientists_need_you)

Old Weather, a site belonging to the Zooniverse network of citizen science projects, allows visitors to actively participate in transcribing naval ship records from bygone eras in order to gain a deeper understanding arctic warming and current alterations in climate patterns.

Slate reports that Old Weather visitors have already helped the sites scientists transcribe more than 1.6 million weather observations from Great Britains Royal Navy logbooks. Now that Old Weather has uploaded 150 years worth of Arctic-related records from the U.S. Navy and Coast Guard― all hand written, much of it without a thought towards good penmanship― the site is hoping its weather geek users will devote their time to accomplishing a similar goal........

ORAC
6th Jan 2013, 07:11
Grand Solar Minima (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_minimum#Grand_solar_minima_and_maxima)

Maunder Minima (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum)

And in particular response to the BBCs recent campaign to associate the recent year and jetstream movement to AGW and Atlantic warming, I refer to their own article 2 years ago reporting the scientific research forecasting the event based on research into past minima. One of the only times I have seen a successful forecast on their behalf. Shame they feel unable to claim it....

Low solar activity link to cold UK winters (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8615789.stm)

B Fraser
6th Jan 2013, 08:46
True, up to a point but with the criteria you mention hardly a representative location...

My point entirely but a site that is often quoted. With a few exceptions such as Cape Wrath, many other reporting points have undergone similar transformations to some degree. The measurements of sea temperature have changed over the years too starting with a thermometer dipped into a bucket that had been thrown over the side. We now sometimes use automated recordings of engine cooling water intake temperatures.

Scientists are rarely known to let the facts get in the way of the funding for their next research programme.

OFSO
6th Jan 2013, 09:49
I measure things wot happened in my lifetime or during a set period. For example here in my part of Catalunia, the past few days have been the hottest* in any winter since I moved here twenty years ago.


17c at night, 25c during the day.

Blacksheep
6th Jan 2013, 15:08
Watching a programme asking questions about the weather, it eventually moved into the usual gloom and doom that mankind is responsible for global warming by producing excessive "greenhouse gas". The chief evidence is that ice cores from Antarctica show that for millennia the CO2 content of the atmosphere was a constant. I immediately wondered how it was that atmospheric CO2 levels were not correlated with all previous global climate changes, but that the current climate change definitely is?