Pilot shortage - wall street journal

[Sunfish]

The wall street journal is reporting a future shortage of pilots. Don't the airlines have no one to blame but themselves?

Or does the wsj opine about a shortage at the price airlines are willing to pay?



Airlines Face Acute Shortage of Pilots - WSJ.com (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203937004578079391643223634.html#articleTabs %3Darticle)

[bavarian-buddy]

:zzz::zzz::zzz::zzz::zzz::zzz::zzz::zzz::zzz::zzz:

[Globalstream]

:ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh:

[break_break]

Or does the wsj opine about a shortage at the price airlines are willing to pay?

Well said, Sunfish, well said indeed. Bunch of imbeciles looking for idiots self paid self sponsored to fuel the supply chain.

Sadly, this is gonna serve as a "credible source" to all the ignorant individuals going P2F and crying foul 100K short couple of years down the road.

[boocs]

Another one!! I'm losing count how many of these I've seen....

[MrHorgy]

ALPA, BALPA, IALPA, and all the other Unions need to get together and put some money in a pot and design an advert to go into the press really that there is NO pilot shortage, just a shortage of idiots who aren't wiling to whore themselves out to the industry.

I lament at the advert in todays Airliner World from BA opening the door for cadet recruitment - when they have just slung out a load of guys from bmibaby! The whole system is backwards.

[A37575]

Rminds me of the Asian newspaper journalist claiming that Australia is one of many countries experiencing a shortage of airline pilots. What absolute rubbish. Each of the regional and major domestic carriers have hundreds of pilot applications on their books as do many small general aviation charter operators. And in most cases they require the candidates to fund their own type ratings.

[Guy of Gisborne]

Lets hope the UK CAA follow the FAA and up the min hour requirement here in the UK.
What are the chances of a Brit with over 2000 hours and command on a medium jet, getting an airline job in the US when the new rules kick in?

[sevenstrokeroll]

to the brit...unless you have a legal right to work in the USA for other reasons than being a pilot (EG...married to a US citizen, etc)...zero

Sully was on CBS saying that the whole thing was rubish and it was the airlines and MONEY causing the problem.

now...the sad thing is this..if som3eone spends the money and becomes an airline pilot you will have a decent job if you are about 30 years old and are willing to suffer for a bout 10 years

[Fair_Weather_Flyer]

The US has come very close to real pilot shortages in 2000-2001 and 2006-2007. Both times, recession in the industry was the only reason that the wheels kept turning. Some of the guys I trained with back in 2004-2005 joined regional airlines on RJ's with 1000hrs and were in the left seat 18 months down the line. In 2006, 250hr pilots were being hired over the phone without even having there CPL issued. It all sounds like a paradise but.....many of the jobs were ultra low pay and those who got fast left seats were often bumped back to the right when the economy slowed.

The US has also come very close to hiring foreigners on occasions. If you have a degree and the employer is desperate enough, they can sponsor you for a H-1 visa. The fly in the ointment is that the fact that the employer is desperate means the job is probably not a good one. So 2000hrs of medium jet time, with some command would probably get you a job flying all night, single crew in a autopilotless Metroliner for $15,000pa. The good jobs (Fedex, Southwest etc) will all be reserved for the locals.

[fireflybob]

Guy of Gisborne, I don't think the CAA will up the hours until we have our Colgan and anyway aren't they bound to follow EASA until we leave the EU?

[captjns]

The US has also come very close to hiring foreigners on occasions.

An ab-initio operation, Gulfstream Aviation catered to foriegn students from zero to hero. They would be given right seat time on the Beech 1900 and Cessna 402 with Gulfstream International Airlines, then a Continental Airlines feeder, operating from South Florida. Of course they had to obtain work visas, which they did. Some even matriculated to Continental main line too.

[LLuCCiFeR]

More evidence that you have to take everything that is spewed out by the Main Stream Media (MSM) with a huge pinch of salt.

The only things that the MSM spews out is propaganda for the established elite; the politicians, the bankers and the heads of large corporations.

[A37575]

If you have a degree and the employer is desperate enough

Why on earth do you need a degree to fly an aeroplane? And in what discipline? Bachelor of Underwater Photography maybe. How about a Diploma of Exotic Pole Dancing for female pilots? Will the airline accept that? :D

[No RYR for me]

Interesting that a well written piece gets this reception by the ignorant. I think the article and the sources used have a better view on what is happening than the anecdotal responses on Pprune.

Yes Europe has a surplus but if you see what is happening in the US the WILL have a shortage. But at the same time it is of their own making. For the money the regionals offer you don't want to start training to become a pilot... $26K p.a. as start pay at a regional will not get people to spend $100k+ That is one of the main problems. Top that with the pathetic 1500 hour rule by politicians that value hours over quality of training and you get what you pay for: a shortage of skilled professionals

Oh and @A37575 on Ozzie country... Remember 2008? Just before the crisis:
Australia's Rex suspends more services citing pilot shortage (http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/australias-rex-suspends-more-services-citing-pilot-shortage-221459/)
Qantas' regional arm suffering pilot shortage (http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/qantas-regional-arm-suffering-pilot-shortage-221863/)

So cr@p when you don't have a job and you cannot get one but no reason not to look at the bigger picture that WSJ is painting! On a positive note: less supply of pilots and higher demand=better pay :)

[RMC]

Yes ...another one. It is not difficult there will be a massive worldwide shortage of experienced pilots in the medium term. I used to work for Airbus Industries Market Research Department and would explain the process of the worlds most sophisticated prediction tool. However most of the people who have replied here have made up their own minds.. so rather than open myself up to a load of ill informed abuse...I'll go for a beer!

[Piltdown Man]

There is not and probably never will be shortage of pilots. The article, and I quote:
"This is going to come to a crisis," said Bob Reding, recently retired executive vice president of operations at AMR Corp.'s American Airlines and now a consultant to FlightSafety International Inc., an aviation training provider.

Added Kit Darby, a consultant on pilot-hiring trends: "We are about four years from a solution, but we are only about six months away from a problem."
Bob Reding has to have what you might describe as a vested interest. And Kit Darby appears to suggest that the US will be short in six months. But he has to be wrong. If the US is anything like the rest of the world there is an enormous glut of unemployed pilots. And even if there was local supply problem, that would be fixed in an instant by allowing short term visas for foreign pilots.

How will we know who's right? Well, if the starting pay for First Officer in a US regional airline rises to more $50K, it will show there is a shortage! Because this is the salary that will have to be paid to attract new entrants and qualified pilots from other operators. And we'll also see non-US nationals flying on short term contracts (at significantly higher rates). And obviously, well managed regional airlines will be making arrangements with FTOs to guarantee a continuous supply of F/Os. But they are not. And come June next year, every airline will still be fully crewed, F/O's will still be screwed and there'll be no aliens! Though we'll still see articles (from training organisations) saying there's a shortage coming... in six months!

[EMB-145LR]

How many of you are actually flying in the airlines in the USA? I am, and I've flown in the UK previously too. The markets are so far removed from each other that even I couldn't believe it when I first moved here.

There is already a pilot shortage at the regional airlines and it's just going to get worse. American Eagle (currently in chapter 11) and Republic Holdings are both offering $5,000 signing bonuses in addition to their meagre first year pay. People simply aren't turning up to classes or interviews. Hell, when I moved to the USA after getting married two years ago I was hired instantly at the first job fair I attended. The interview was a joke, but as I met ATP mins, had jet and turboprop experience and had a pulse, that was good enough for them. I ended up with five job offers at various regionals within the next two weeks. My current airline is considered to be one of the best regionals out there, although that really is an oxymoron. We can't fill our classes. Management have openly told us that they are concerned about what they are going to do next year when the majors start hiring.

Don't be fooled, there is no shortage at the major level, but down here in the regionals it's already well underway and over the next five years it will spread up to the majors. The USA is facing the perfect storm, the 1,500 hours rule, age 65 retirements and new rest rules requiring 20% more pilots all come into force next year.

I doubt the country will open it's boarders to foreign pilots unless it's through marriage or other legitimate family means, but there is a shortage coming.

I see no hope of returning to Europe in the medium term for myself and my wife, no matter how much we want to. The industry is as DOA there at the moment.

By the way, Gulfstream Academy did take on foreign pilots for their line training course in the past, but none were ever offered visas or employment, and certainly none of their foreign pay to play pilots ever made it to CAL or any other major without having a green card or citizenship. Thankfully Gulfstream are now Silver Airways and no longer offer that programme.

[Piltdown Man]

...both offering $5,000 signing bonuses in addition to their meagre first year pay. People simply aren't turning up to classes or interviews.

You said it - meagre! The pay is still not enough to persuade people to jump. The regionals will have to improve their terms and conditions, which in turn will increase those enjoyed by the big boys. I really hope there is a shortage because this allow ALPA to claw back some of the ground they have lost over the past few decades. Time to settle some scores with the bean counters!

Best of luck!

PM

[No RYR for me]

If the US is anything like the rest of the world there is an enormous glut of unemployed pilots.

@Pit: that is the whole point of the article and every training conference I have been to in the US there is NOT an enormous glut and as EMB points out is happening now. Even if they do increase the salary at the regionals it still does not solve the problem nopw as it will take a year to train new pilots... And this is before the pathetic 1500 hour rule kicks in.

I expect the following to happen:
-The shortage in the US will get bigger
-Salary goes up (as it should!)
-Still aircraft parked
-1500 Minimum hour rule goes out of the window (as it should!)
-Foreigners are allowed in...(least likely)

In short the costcutters and politicians ate getting what they ehh didn't pay for
:E

The sad thing is that in the above scenario the lessons of ColganAir and the quality improvements required in US training go out of the window first..... :mad:

[greenedgejet]

"Unfortunately, your application cannot be taken any further as you exceed the maximum level of flying experience for the Future Pilot Programme.

There may be other roles on our website British Airways (http://www.ba.com/careers) that might be of interest to you. Please visit our website to find out more.

Thank you for your interest in this role."

Less is more in EU/UK - JAR CPL/IR not short enough lets give poor (they will be after licence financing) cadets 70 to 90h flying then sim with tie in through MPL !

Thankfully US Public not looking that way - they still appreciate the grey hairs like Sullenberger.

[Moonwalker]

Dunno what's wrong with the 1500 hrs regulation? I think it is one of the best things that has happened in the industry for a long time. I fly with low hour guys every second day and I must say I'm tired of people that fly big aircraft and struggle with a 5 knots crosswind landing. Perhaps because it force me to work :} We've all been there but come on, 5 knots... what's happened with the standard lately?

[South Prince]

Check the African thread on Air Namibia and you'll see what is out there

[Fonz121]

Dunno what's wrong with the 1500 hrs regulation?

I've got to say I agree. Anything that makes me a more valuable commodity is just dandy in my books.

[B767PL]

There is no shortage of pilots in the USA, and there will be none, either.

There may be less then desired amounts of applicants for low-paying regional jobs, but none of this will affect the majors, which should have no problems finding bodies.

About 50% of all US airline flying is done by regional carriers. The majority of its pilots strive to get to the majors, therefore the majors should experience no problems finding pilots and a steady supply from the regionals.

The regionals however may have a harder time finding willing people to work for 20,000$ a year under a crap contract when the majors start taking more people in.

Aside from a few decent gigs out there, this "career" is as good as dead in the Western world.

[20driver]

The math in the article does not add up:

60,000 pilots retire by 2025 is 5000 pilots a year.
34,000 ATPL's in 8 years equals 4,500 a year.
A 10 percent increase in supply would cover the shortfall, an issue, but not the end of the world.

There have been shortages before and the airlines dealt with it by doing doing ab intio direct hires. A neighbor's father was an AC pilot. He was a baggage handler in the 50's when they came around asking who want to be a pilot.

The real issue is raising the pay. A few years back I walked into an FBO in Mobile and there were adds taped to the window looking for regional pilots,
250 hrs and an CPL were the listed minimums. But for 18K why would anyone bother?

The 1500 hr rule is the typical "Megans Law" response to the Colgan crash where parents/spouses/siblings feel that unless they get a new law passed they are not dissing the memories of the departed.

Things really get tight regionals will pay more and the majors will start cadet programs, which miraculously will qualify for some sort of waiver.

The new law is good for flight schools etc as it means the can abuse their employees for longer without worrying they will be poached.