no job for the next 10 years

[poor-pilot]

hello,
my forecast is no job for the next 10 years and there will be no shortage of pilots .
if you are in a JAA course or you want join a JAA school, keep your money and do something else.
I am a student at the university, I have a major in international economy and I want to warn you before you make a big mistake.
Good luck to the other pilots who are still waiting or looking for a flying job.:( :(

[Superpilot]

Come on Ronchonner, you know it'll get better soon :p

[The Boy Lard]

Poor-pilot (good handle methinks)

If you are going to post such gloom and doom please at least substantiate what you are saying, such sweeping statements without facts may well be the final straw for some budding Wannabe who may not take the chance and pursue their dream - would you really want that responsibility?

This whole business of making a decision whether or not to "Go for it" is difficult enough without poor posts like this. I'm sure you are well intentioned, but please, think about what you are typing.

Good luck for YOUR future.

TBL

[DeeTee]

Nope.

I agree it's an excellent plan. Logon to a Professional Pilots Bulletin Board. Find the wannabes section. Claim to be an economist. Tell all other wannabes not to compete. Immediately reduce the competition you face. More chance for you to get a job. Bish Bash Bosh...job done.

Here's one as well. I'm the President of the World Bank, I'm going to call in all BA's debts and bankrupt them. So if I were you I wouldn't apply to BA. Also, all those pilots in BA you should leave, especially those in the pool. And the same goes for virgin. And any pilots flying the 777 for any airline on good wages, I've always fancied a go on them ... oops might have blown my cover there :rolleyes:

[Herc Jerk]

And i believe that every Lamborghini Diablo will crash in the next week so all those drivers/owners should hand their keys over to me now...

If you are going to do something... do it properly. That is a pathetic wind up!!

[Autofly]

DeeTee - you took the words right out of my my mouth.

Poor - pilot - We don't deserve posts like this on our forum. Its a good job there are plenty of us to shoot you down and keep the spirits of of everyone else. PPRuNe is a free site to those who don't contribute to the fund and a valuble resource and some people come along and just annoy us all. Obviously nothing better to do:rolleyes: :rolleyes:

So come on then, give us some reasons for your claims before I start linking all the pros for the market upturn. WWW is normally our guide when it comes to market recovery but at least he cuts us some slack!!!!

AF

[GonvilleBromhead]

Yeah agreed Dee-Tee, spot on.

P1ss Poor Pilot, in the words of the great Jim Royal......well, you all know !

[redsnail]

We have a phrase in Oz that is very appropriate here.

"Come in spinner"
:rolleyes:

[Dutchie]

Better be unemployed while looking for your dreamjob (you live only once so better enjoy it!!) then be an economist and be miserable!! ;)

[UKflyer]

Is there no way we can ban him forever from this forum, his comments are getting very boreing and does not help anyone in the current climate of things. I can't believe how negative one person can be - and even worse, how he can spread this amongst the rest of the community and feel good about it!!

Away forever - i say...!

Cheers for now
Jamie

[SpiralDive]

Hey! Didn't you guys read his post? This guy isn't some ordinary joe pilot, he's a student at the University!!! First year is it? Better pay attention cause he obviously knows his sh*t

Haha

[Sagey]

As an individual with an Economics based degree in the UK I have to firmly disagree, no surprise there then ;)

Go and Easy have just published figures for March and both have witnessed a substantial increase in passenger numbers.

The amount of individuals flying is on the increase.

Job cuts at present are from those airlines that are using out dated economic models, the days of price discrimination, excessive pricing for business travel etc are likely to be reduced or over as modern day businesses continue to compete and tighten belts.

The low costs seem to have got the economic model right at the moment for short haul travel, BA etc are slashing prices to compete on short haul routes.

The problem lies in Long haul travel and as of yet I don't believe that any airline has worked out the correct model to prosper and sustain growth, yes in good times the model works but in bad it crashes spectacularly. No doubt all are working overtime to crack the situation.

Charter and holiday airlines, follow more generally the economcy of the UK, recession and high unemployment results in less holidays and of course the opposite is true. Such airlines imo don't compete head on, it is a case of the travel companies entering into price wars, to get their business and then allocating holiday makers onto their airlines or onto contracted airlines for that company.

Sagey

[rebeccadblake]

10 YEARS!, where on earth did you get reasonable evidence to back that lot of Tripe???

One of the BA capts today was only saying that becuase BA have had to cut soo many jobs becuase of their lack of customers, they will have to start hiring soon becuase customer confidence is coming back.

You really think that for 10 years families are going to stay home for the school holidays, Business men/women will not make that Valueable trip , and sex crazed teens wont be hooping over to Ibiza, Oz, Malta.

Get a life and stop scaremongering.

Cheshire cat. EGHH

[G-SPOTs Lost]

Nurse...........

Poor Pilots out of bed again.........

:rolleyes:

[Lucifer]

Sagey, I think you'll find that price discrimination is central to the low-cost model. Very few flights have every seat at the same, low advertised price!

[poor-pilot]

hello,
I am sorry to not to give you better news for the futur in the aviation market.
I am a 4th year degree and I have chosen to write a paper on the economic situation in the airline market.
this downturn is based on several factors you know already, but when I ad the numbers, I can tell you there will be no shortage of pilots for the next 8-12 years.
Look at sabena, swissair, AOM...other airlines are going to kick out hundred of pilots.
I am really affected by this situation, but I do not want to lie.I am not a dreamer and if I had to pay a flight training, I would think twice before to do such mistake.
I suggest you before to pay a school, to look with an economist.

[Sagey]

Lucifer I agree, can't remember exactly my point on price discrimination, think it related more to Business and First Class as a form of price discrimination that the low cost model. Yes when RyanAir etc say 99p a flight not all the seats are 99p lol, but at times with low costs airlines the more you pay the more you get (ie flexibility rather than have to travel back on certain flight).

Interesting to think whether one price for all seats would work, at least you would know how much the git sitting next to you pays ;)

Sagey

[Irish Flyer]

Poor-pilot, I hope your final papers aren't in english because if your predictions are as good as your spelling then they aren't very accurate. ;)

[FRIDAY]

YOUR A F***KIN SPACE CADET, Trust me I added up the figures and it's now gospel truth. ;)

[PanicButton]

Poor-Pilot
Is that prediction based on passenger flying, cargo flying or both because I think most people only think of passenger flying. People are sending freight more and more by plane and there is all sorts of essential flying like medivac, which I don't really know how is doing. More and more companys are buying private jets after sept. 11. Security is tightening and people are bound to start flying again. :p

[Evo7]

Hello again, Ronchonner (http://www.flashheaven.co.uk/ronchonner/). Bored again....? ;)

[UKflyer]

poor-pilot (or whoever you are)

I hope your mentor realises what a poor-student you are, and sees that your paper will not get you anywhere in trying to explain the long-term economic future of the airline industry. It is so very unpredictable as is most of the world's industry's as anything can happen in such as SHORT period of time.

Your paper will not justify anything, and will be based purely on speculation. Do not think you will be getting honours with your degree - because i would not read (or try to read) your paper with a barge pole!!

Have a nice day

[G SXTY]

Careful chaps. If Poor-pilot is who I think he is, he’s current on at least 5 different jet transports, the FA-18, and Tom Cruise’s Learjet.

He also knows all about the JAA, WWW’s job at Burger King in LHR, and yellow willy tattoos. In short, you’d better listen to him.
:D:D

[Easy Glider]

As blunt as Poor-Pilot is, there is an element of truth to what he/she is saying.

The collapse of the many carriers Swiss, Sabena etc. are going to create a huge glut of pilots on the market for many years to come. Exactly how many years however is anyones guess.

I have been in this industry for over twelve years now and during all of those years I have been reading about a supposed pilot shortage apparently just around the corner- It hasn't happened yet. My only conclusion now can be that it never will! Don't get me wrong, I seriously hope it does as it will hopefully greatly inflate my salary which is my only real interest in this game anymore!!!

[poor-pilot]

Easy glider is right.In 1994, I spoke with a military pilot. he told me the story about the shortage of pilots is effectively a story.
to answer to panic button, effectively we speak only about passenger planes, but the hiring process come from the top(the airlines) A captain takes is retirement, a copi takes his place, a new copi coming from a corporate takes his place and an instructor goes work as a corporate pilot and so on.
As long pilots keep their job, there will be no free place for guys coming from under...and there are so many pilots trained since 1992 still waiting for a job, that airlines have a pool of pilots for the next 8-12 years.I dont want to speak about fresh pilots with no experience...it makes me sad!:(
Look at ryanair, do you think they need pilots?why do they charge 50euros?what do you expect?do you thing airline are begging for pilots?look around you, pilots pay to work.
200 hours on a boeing 737, 45000 dollars.this is what you have TO PAY TO WORK!or 30000 US dollars to work on a lear for Ameriflight in the USA. This is what you have to PAY to work.
yes, aviation becomes like this: if you want work as a pilot, pay!

[regional guy]

Hey Poor-Pilot,

I don't know too much about the job situation in Europe, but I do know that you are more or less full of **** if you say that you have to pay to fly in the US. Ok, after 9/11 it is harder to find jobs, but they are still out there, no doubt. Lots of regionals are hiring, and there is always corporate jobs if you are lucky enough. The majors are slowing down, but don't tell me that you have to pay to work over here!!! :mad: And if nothing else works, the flight-schools are always looking for an instructor or two.

[Evo7]

Don't feed the trolls!

[donpizmeov]

Wow Poor Pilot, if you can make predictions like this while still a student, just imagine the doom and gloom you will be able to cause when you grow up and gain some experience!
Now be a nice little boy and get back to bed before your mother finds out you have been on the internet again.

[Dutchie]

Dear poor pilot,

Thank you for leaving our industry and leaving your spot to motivated people. We will not miss you.

Kind regards:D

[poor-pilot]

well gentlemen, the truth hurts...
I would like to reply to the US guys.Effectively, there are some jobs in the USA.But the US are not ready to let foreigners to take their job.it s why if EU pilots want work in the US , they have to pay for a work permit.Check with Eagle jet intl in florida, they have a special training for 45'000 US dollars, 200 hours on the B737.
There is a guy in Nordway, who charges 30'000 US dollars to fly a Lear.Once again, my friends, I am very sorry for all these young guys who paid so much for their license and who will probably never find a flying job.It's my job to tell the truth.
I would like to say that 3 years ago, an economist of swiss air group warned Swissair,Instead to listen, do you know what they did? he was fired! Now you see the result!

[redsnail]

Gees, I hope you lot don't come back as fish. You'll be hooked in seconds flat!

[regional guy]

Poor-pilot,

You are right that it is hard to get a visa or green-card in order to work legally in the States, but there is always other places in the world to go besides Europe and North-America....
BUT, instead of coming over here to the states and buying jet-time with Eagle jet intl or similar companies, and undermining all other hard-working professional pilots, you can usually instruct on a visa without too many problems. I can't see how you can say that people starting flight-training now will never get a job, there will always be jobs out there for pilots that are willing to work hard and relocate.

[Evo7]

They're not listening Reddo... :)

[The Boy Lard]

I hate to bring this back to the top by posting, again, but as I said in my first post:

"Where are the facts to back up your claims?"

If your are said expert Economist please furnish us with FACTS, that way each and everyone of us can go off and make up our own minds without being constantly wound up by someone who pretends to know what he/she is talking about.

If you cant supply facts please go and play somewhere else.

TBL

[redsnail]

Evo,
Guess not... ;)

[MAX]

10 YEARS!! Is that all?? Wow rapid stream to the top in aviation huh? Now lets see....

It was four years to get qualified from my first ever lesson. Been qualified a year. Only 5 years till left hand seat, responsible for multi million pound a/c. FANTASTIC! It will take me at least 30 years to be MD of my current employer.

Thanks Poor Pilot, sorry to hear about your job at ENRON.:rolleyes:

MAX:cool:

[andy.reohorn]

poor-pilot certainly got a response

is it really worth further discussion

try try try again.......................and then start all over again:rolleyes:

[MachOverspeed]

Poor Pilot,

Quit your bitchin'.

It took me eight hard years just to get my CFI. Then I had to compete with Euro's who came to the States, with a pocket full of cash, and who got all the choice multi engine instruction.

Then I got a freight job (there weren't any others...) and had to compete with Euro's, who saw fit to pad their log books by a thousand hours, and who would fly a Baron all night for free. Not to mention over staying their Visas for a couple of years. Meanwhile, I was trying to raise a family on less than a thousand bucks a month.

Then I had to deal with all the low timer females gettin' an airline job by virtue of their gender. Long live equal opportunity....

All the while I kept the faith....

You know, there's always some namby city boy who wants everything RIGHT NOW, and thinks he deserves it. Who ain't got the balls to do the hard work and pay his dues. Who thinks that the world owes him a living.

Shut the @#$% up and put your nose to the grindstone. If you really want to fly, you'll find a way. If you're not prepared to do that, then get out of the way of those who are dedicated to the profession, and who are ready to put up with all the bull****, and make the necessary sacrifices.

Or go be a used car dealer!

MachOverspeed

[regional guy]

MachOverspeed,

Well said!! Except, don't give ALL us Europeans that work in the States a bad reputation now. Some of us actually work here legally. :D I've been working my ass of here, and so far I've not noticed any favoritism at all....

[Easy Glider]

Its obvious that this is an extremely hot subject. What Poor Pilot is saying is still true to a point, even though he does seem to enjoy winding you all up.

As I said in my previous post, I have been in this industry for over 12 years and this promised pilot shortage has never happened. I however have been relatively lucky, right time, right place etc. and have landed some reasonable jobs in this industry. I am currently flying the B757/B767.

What I have seen however, is that it does appear harder to land what I would call decent jobs as pilots terms and conditions have been badly eroded during the last 10 years. In other words, the days of large salaries are over especially for newcomers who are now often employed on lower pay scales than the older chaps.

If I was in the position of starting a career now, I must say that personally, - and this is just my personal opinion, - I would not enter this industry and if I could go back and do it all again I would also probably do something different.

I would just like to add that I am not trying to influence anyones thinking, and as I said before, theese are all jusy my personal opinions.

[Dutchie]

He Poor English,

If you read your flight internnational 3 years ago at the same time as your SR prediction you would have found an ad for Eagle jet selling ratings from small to 737's. If you looked back 10 years you would have found ads for Eagle jet or similar companies. Ever saw the name of Gulfstream? They have been selling ratings and flight time for years.. You are just a single minded person so ****** off..

:mad:

[poor-pilot]

regional guy,
you are correct, it's possible to work in the states if you find someone ready to sponsore you and with the approbation by the DOL (Department of labor)and the INS. A Flight instructor in the USA can log up to 2000 h of C152 and light multi-engine, and after? after everybody will laugh at you and no regional airlines will hire an european pilot cuz Regional airline pilots have Union which means:" green card or go home with your 2000h".I know what I am talking about, I have several european friends stuck in the states, making 800 US dollars per month and no futur.If it was easy, everybody would go to the states!!!
I know an airline pilot, told me one day :"I do not understand why pilots fight like this ".Apparently it's a dream job, but when you fly commercialy everyday, can be a pain in the butt to fly".
I will tell you later why there will be no job for the next 10 years.I am just worried than flight schools will try to threat me.

[regional guy]

Poor-Pilot,

you are without any doubt so full of S*** it's gotta be coming out of your ears!!!! :mad:

"I will tell you later why there will be no job for the next 10 years.I am just worried than flight schools will try to threat me."

You know what, please spare us!!!!
About working in a US regional, I never said you can do that on a visa, you do need a green-card. BUT, I have several friends that worked here as instructors, and are now flying in airlines, or corporate, in Europe and Asia. Do NOT tell me it it's impossible, it might be hard, but FAR from impossible. Maybe people like you that expect everything to fall into their lap won't cut it in the aviation industry, but for people that are willing to work hard, there will always be a way! So, as I said, you DO NOT know what the f*** you are talking about.
To everyone else, I'm sorry for bringing this losers thread up to the top again, but I had to let some steam out....

[Empty Cruise]

The forecast need for economists...

..at our company is looking extremely bleak. We have watched all sorts of companies employing economists go down the drain. We saw Swissair, who employed some geniuss & later his replacement. And a lot of other companies along those lines. So, no way, sir - none of those economists for us!

As we are in the segment of business growing, and based on the assumption that our competitors are just as smart as us (or have had their economists drag them under), I expect that the entire industry will soon have made economists obsolete.

Soon, everybody else will discover how we make money without any economists, while those that employ such @rses go down the drain. We will be a leading beacon for all other economic sectors, causing:

EVERLASTING UNEMPLOYMENT!!!
for
ALL ECONOMISTS!!!

And all the torements of hell will descend upon your sorry little heads! :mad: Forever! And Ever! :eek: Ha-ha-haaaaaaaaaaah!!!

:D AMEN! :D

[Jinkster]

What a load of flipping rubbish :mad: :mad: :mad:

[Nano 763]

Poor pilot
Poor student
Poor economist
Poor loser

With that attitude, is there any doubt about your future?

You will be poor.

I pity you.

[SkyGuy]

I have to agree with most of you Poor Pilot is talking complete rubbish BUT i do get the impression that most of you are kidding yourself and will be very lucky to see employment within the next 18-24 months. I think its great to keep your spirits up and is prob the only thing to do but i think most of you need to be realistic. Go for it and Good Luck.....:)

[gabu]

Well Mr. economist,

I'm about to set off for flight training in the states very shortly, sure I know its going to be a hell of a struggle , but just having spend the last 5 years working to get to this point having worked proffesionally in the gas fields of the middle east to Nuclear Engineering companies I'm not deterred & I'm going to tell you why. All those jobs where crap, Been there got the T shirts, every one I met in those jobs telling me of christ I wish I was your age and doing what your thinking of doing. If you want something enough and your prepared to make sacrifices theres nothing you can't do.

You gotta have a dream, and you gotta go for no point looking into to the future, the economics don't stack up etc.etc. Gawd almighty fella lifes a risk, crossing the roads a risk, Driving your cars a risk, its all one big gamble.

Don't think, just do! Looking around at what everyone else is doing isnt going to help focus on what you want, having belief in yourself will and hell you'll enjoy it.

Classic quote from the rolling stones

'You can't Always get what you want, but if you try real hard you may bet what you need'


What else you going to do in life, count money? sit behind a computer all your life, 2 a penny for people wanting to that. I've done that & its a redundant life.


You've let the ******s get you down.

My Regards

P.S. My father said to me when he was dying (I was only 17 at the time) its better to have tried & failed than never tried at all.

[UKflyer]

Well said Gabu. Good luck with your training, i'll be joining you soon!

[Broken Wings]

Well said Gabu.

I was in the RAF until 2000 when I was medically grounded after 23 years flying due to the negligence of some numpties in a foreign land. In 2001 the RAF said they'd probably made the wrong decision and I managed to get a restricted Class 1. After 3 years on the ground I managed to get my CPL/IR in Feb this year - with impecable timing for the job market! I was offered a single pilot job last week with a charter company but couldn't take it beacuse I have to fly as or with a co-pilot.

The reason I went through the ground exams and retraining (which despite my experience was bloody hard) is because I believe that flying for a living is the best job there is. The job market WILL recover its simply WHEN. You have to remain positive otherwise you'd go up the wall.

Best of luck with your training and keep your posistive attitude.

PS. If ever you get a bit down during your training read
Jonathan Livingston Seagull (http://www.homebuilt.org/vendors/info/bookstore/bach/jonathan.html) it will help keep the dream alive.

[Easy Glider]

It never ceases to amaze me how naive many of the individuals on this forum actually are. You seem to look througu rose tinted spectacles at the world of aviation.

This is not a dream job. I know - I do it for a living. It is the same as any other job, it has its plus points and its minus points. As the years go by however, the minus points seem to out weigh the plus points. If the truth be told, I am trying very hard to get out completely and do something different.

I don't understand why so many of you are so desperate to become glorified taxi drivers as least that's what you'll be regarded as by any company that employs you. And for those of you who think that there is still substantial money to be made in this industry......... there isn't that evaporated over ten years ago.

[GonvilleBromhead]

Easey Glider the point you make about management, which in fairness is often quoted by pilots as one of the banes of their lives, surely can be just as valid in any industry, anywhere across the globe.

With all due respect to you and other pilots who often quote this, this is never mentioned as a counterbalance point of view. I've worked in industry for several years and yes, we grumbled about management, pay and conditions, bonuses etc etc.....as do pilots, doctors, nurses, engineers etc etc...

I do see your point that a fair amount of wannabes do seem a tad blinkered at times and that flying after some time is a job, nothing more, nothing less, but in fairness (yes I am just a wannabe too nothing more, although family and friends are commercial pilots so a small insight into the industry), I can't think of anything I'd rather be doing for a living (yes if I won the lottery, I could think of stack loads I'd rather be doing), but as far as employment is concerned, flying is what I have chosen for various reasons.

It's always good to see (constructive) opinions from all sides and particulary one like yours having been there and lived it (as opposed to the "opinion" of the chap who started this thread, wind up one thinks), sometimes such a perspective is needed to provide some balance.

But I'd also say give folks the chance to discover for themselves what they are in for, the good and the bad.

All the best,

GB.

[Broken Wings]

Easy Glider

I feel sorry that you have lost the enthusiasm for flying and as you are keen "to get out completely and do something different" I for one would appreciate your job.

It is not naive to have a dream in life. I agree that there is no perfect job but there are loads that are a lot worse than being a pilot however, to keep the interest up in professional aviation I would advise all wannabees to try the RAF first.

As for pay I personally think £60K starting salary for a Jet Captain is a good salary.

[Easy Glider]

Broken Wings, Yes £60,000 is a reasonable salary but if you were a captain 20 - 30 years ago in todays terms you would be earning closer to £85,000 - £90,000!!!!

If you follow this trend to its logical conclusion, in 20 - 30 years time you will be earning more like £25,000 - £30,000 as an entry level captain. Does this still seem as good to you? I wonder what bus and train drivers will be earning at this point.

[cleartoland04]

Hi everyone,

Sorry to add my opinion to this thread as it seems to have calmed down a bit.

I'd just like to say that flying is not the only job where you have to pay to work if you think about it. In the States or Europe, you pay to go to the university and private schools and most of the time a bloody amount of money...what for? to get a descent job I guess! It probably sounds simplistic but it's exactly the same to me...people try to get as many qualifications/diplomas as they can, and as sad as it can be it's all a matter of money!

I may be naive but I do see the shortage coming in the next 5 to 10 years as the babyboomers start to retire. I recently spoke with both an Air Canada and an Air France captain. The first one told me the average age of flying crews at AC is around 45 yr old and as people don't fly until 70 it means that there're not that many young pilots in the company. Air France is currently recruiting 250 pilots a year and they plan to do so for the next 5 years...they say it's inevitable if they want to cover both the natural growth of the industry and the massive departures for retirement. What it all basically means is that there will be jobs for motivated and qualified people, I have no doubt about it.
Now not all of us may find the job we exactly want or some of us might struggle more but that isn't a characteristic of the airline industry, it's the same in everywhere. I found my current job in less than a month and it took some of my friends from the same year way more time, it's just a question of luck and personality.

Finally, I'm very sad to hear that you've lost all of it easy glider. Please don't tell me you're looking at going back to an office job, seating behind a computer from 9 to 5, tell me you have much more interesting projects to quit the flying! You know we all have up and downs in our jobs and I can easily understand that you get exhausted and don't want to see another a/c after a whole day of flying...but damn how can you totally lose it??!
The flying of today is certainly not the same than 20 yrs ago when nothing was automatic but the job has evolved towards other responsabilities than just flying the bird and I can assure you that there's more than you think in that job...
As for the money....I'm even more sorry to hear that you fly for the big bucks...I'm not saying that we have to accept everything and be treated like dogs but come on, if you're not happy with £60,000 never turn your TV on again to watch the news!!

Hope the english wasn't too bad and the content not too full of rubish! :D

Good luck everyone and happy flying!

Clear

[simon brown]

Poor Pilot

....Anyone noticed the banner at the top of this forum page indicating Ryan Air's expansion and 800 jobs Pilots.etc, says it all really.....which means people move up the ladder leaving positions at the bottom for freshly qualifieds to get their feet on the bottom run of the career ladder.

People have a lot of diposable income these days, which means they go on holiday a lot which means they fly, which means there is more competition, which means more airlines which means more jobs for pilots.,Though to a point. Look around you at the expansion of aviation, the fact that existing increasing air traffic cannot be handled by NATS etc, etc

Most airlines go bust thro p1ss poor management and a lack of market awareness.(What where BA thinking when they decided they didnt want to attract the "backpacker " class of passanger)
My worry is that its such an uphill struggle to become a professional pilot , whether people will bother taking up a career in aviation at all. I'm certainly having second thoughts, and im lucky the money isnt an issue, its the old "will I get a job at the end of it all"

I think there will be a shortage of Pilots though, unless the airlines address the issue of direct entry pilots coming straight from school/university and increase the age limit of DEPs to 40 or so as people whom have "been there, done that" and whom may have managerial skills in other walks of life still have a lot to offer.

As a 36 year old whom is looking at a career in Aviation, reading various forums in this web site is begining to dishearten me somewhat, but as others say, you might well be a stooge wishing to reduce competition. I shall be observing what goes on around me and ignore so called junior econonists and trust common sense

Short of inventing the "teleporter" as a mode of transport, the future of aviation is bright (Or orange if you work for Easyjet)

A year ago, according to so called experts, the housing market would be on its arse and prices would be falling as recession bites deeper..........anyones house dropped by 10k in the last year.. i think not. In fact its the boom in the house market that may well finance my future career.Just as well I didnt sell up last year after hearing what the the gloom and doom merchants had to say isnt it.

Suggest Poor Pilot you do something more constructive and join that happy band of economists with their mindless pessimistic drivel and write for the FT before someone shoots you down in flames STICK TO BEAN COUNTING

SB

[piperindian]

REALITY CHECK ! :eek:
i got a JAR ATPL, 500 TT, have been waiting already almost 2 years for an interview, sent lotz of cvs. Know many guys in the same boat.
I have not tried the US (cfi..) so i dont know the situation there, i just can speak for UK and Europe.
So this 10 years of poor pilot is not so unrealistical after all...
Many wannabes are burying their head in the sand .

Most developed countries experience negative gdp growth at the moment.
Whats more, there is a strong risk of stagflation now that oil prices have rised. We are maybe heading towards a situation like 1981

[Red Minx]

It's not the fact that the airlines won't be hiring but that there will be a glut of pilots chasing those jobs.Now that the minimum 700 ruling has been removed it appears that everyman and his dog who has a PPL is going for the ATPL's.I have never seen so many people sitting the examninations and it was unheard of under the national exams to end up in Glasgow instead of Gatwick.PPL holders were quite happy just being that under the old system which meant there were probably only 300 a year coming through the self improver route. Now you even need the exams to become a flight instructor these pilots who normally would have remained so will be applying for airline jobs when advertised without the need for exra training.It was bad enough getting into the airlines 10 years ago when BA were hiring and only about 150 pilots unemployed,I wonder how many there will be in 3 yrs time?I've been there and done it,I know what it is like to be out of work for 5 yrs and the competition wasnt half as bad as it is now.My advice to you guys is go into it because you will always wonder 'what if' later on in life ,but dont be too dissapointed if it all goes pear shaped .:eek:

[scroggs]

Since 11th September last year there have been, are now, and will continue to be jobs for pilots. Somewhere in excess of 100,000 pilots are employed by the airlines of the western world, and God knows how many more in Russia and Asia. In the US and Europe, around about 10% of those employed prior to 11th September were furloughed or made unemployed. Many of those are now back at work; many, equally, are not.

Of those 100,000, in any one year about 10-15% will retire from aviation for a variety of reasons, which means that around 10-15,000 new pilots a year continue to be needed in the western economies. Given that civilian aviation is expected to continue expanding at around 5% annually for the forseeable future, that 10-15,000 will increase by 500-750 every year.

Right now there are a lot of pilots in the system without jobs. There are also a lot of people who would like to become pilots. There aren't as many jobs as there are would-be candidates for them, as is also true of many other professions. But many of those would-be candidates are simply not good enough to be placed in charge of a large commercial airliner, and many others will disqualify themselves from selection by their poor attitude, or their assumption that the industry owes them a job because they've got the basic minimum qualifications.

Be in no doubt, the talented, hard-working, realistic, unselfish and generally decent people amongst you will succeed, given time. If that description doesn't fit you, what are you doing in this field of endeavour?

[ILS27R]

I always believed that under the JAR system there were actually fewer people training for PPLs and subsequently ATPLs due to the higher costs, compared to the old national system.

Scroggs, I agree about there being other professions where there are more candidates than jobs but can you name another profession where the high-school dumbo or dropout can train along side someone whos read astrophysics at Cambridge? In any other profession you need some sort of educational achievement even before you gain entry into that profession. Being an airline pilot it would appear is more a matter of money!!:rolleyes:

[The Boy Lard]

ILS,

I hear what you are saying, however the way I read Scroggs post I believe he is saying that plenty of people gain the coveted FATPl but go no further due to lack of aptitude for a modern jet, poor attitude, arrogance etc...

No matter how much money you throw at it the high school dumbo will stay just that.

Cheers and good luck all.

TBL

edited for spelling, hope its not me who's the school dumbo!

[regional guy]

piperindian,

"i got a JAR ATPL, 500 TT, have been waiting already almost 2 years for an interview, sent lotz of cvs. Know many guys in the same boat"

Well, with only 500 hours you can't really expect to get your dream-job right of the bat... If you wanted this really bad, why don't you try and build some hours, working as an instructor etc.?????

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Yes but in the UK 500hrs is quite a lot comparatively. There are no instructor jobs available. As an illustration the UK's largest school has put all Instructors on notice for redundancy - amongst them a range of highly experienced and qualified professional instructors...

The upturn in recruitment is coming. I reckon 2 years from now the airlines will be scratching around a bit and low time will no longer be a problem as it wasn't pre Sept 11th.

In the meantime its tricky to know what to do with your new CPL. There are very few Air Taxi type positions, the large airlines don't need staff and the low costs are seeking either an Unfrozen ATPL, Boeing 737 experience or membership of a particular school on the continent and a wheelbarrow full of cash... :(

The trick is not to get rusty. Preferably this is done by graduating at the time that things are picking up for low time guys. Otherwise its connections, flexibility and the ability to work for very very little. Perhaps returning to a previous profession and using the money to keep curency is the only viable option for many. Heartbreaking as that move is.

WWW

[regional guy]

WWW,

Point taken. :) But what about moving outside the UK? If a person is able to relocate then I would consider instructing in the US for a year or two while waiting for the marked in Europe to pick up. A person could easily build up 1000-2000 hours, and be better qualified for jobs back home. I know of a few people that moved to Africa and flew there for a short period of time, before returning to Europe...

[ILS27R]

Lard,

Point taken. I realise that it takes buckets of skill, intelligence, hard work and not to mention luck to become an airline pilot.:)
Just seems sometimes to be the case; although we really know its not!!

It would be interesting to find out some numbers (oh no talking about statistics again:) ) to see how many CPLs/IRs are issued each year compared to airline jobs (in a good year).

[scroggs]

As things stand, I believe the UK may well be the best place to be over the next couple of years. The US airlines were far harder hit by the post-Sep 11th fallout than we were, and that means there are many, many airline pilots over there trying to get employment wherever they can - obviously including flight schools, for the appropriately qualified. Europe was also hit badly by the failures of Sabena and Swissair, and the generally less-encouraging economic picture on the continent will delay recovery longer than here.

In UK, the low-cost sector is absolutely on a roll, and looking to expand both here and in mainland Europe. As they are based, and recruit, in UK (or Eire), this is probably the best place o be to catch the recovery. The IT and long-haul airlines here are also beginning to look beyond the immediate horizon towards future expansion.

It's not here yet, but recovery throughout the UK industry isn't that far away. As WWW says, in two years' time the UK airlines may be struggling to fill their pilot seats!

[no sponsor]

What I do not understand is the following.

I have flown on the following trips recently:

BA to Bangkok - Aircraft full
BA to Sydney, return via Singapore - Aircraft full to Singapore 75% load to Sydney
BA to Johanessburg - Aircraft full
BA to Bahrain - Aircraft 90%
BA to Cairo - Full

Buzz to Paris - Full
BA to Munich - Full
GO to Edinburgh - Full

So what's all this nonesense about people not travelling anymore, or business class travellers not doing business (the above were all in business or first, so I had a good indication)? At the end of day, you still need to meet customers/potential customers face-to-face.

Business is picking up, there's no doubt about it - my industry is beginning to recover. We had the last 12 months being pretty bad, but since Feb, things have picked up dramatically.

I have not gone back on the Atlantic recently, but I believe BA loads are farily respectable.

Add to this the coming summer months, and things should be well back on track for many.

;)

[redsnail]

People are travelling but they aren't paying what they used to. There fore the airlines aren't making as much money. It's called yield management. At the moment, the airlines are trying to stimulate demand to get people moving. In the retail game, it's known as a "loss leader".

[scroggs]

no sponsor

The problem is that the cabins are full of passengers on promotional fares, which don't make money but fill seats(and, remember, there are considerably fewer aeroplanes - thus seats - than there were last summer). Business and first class full-fare passengers are conspicuously absent at the moment, but those seats are being filled with economy upgrades. So, while the aeroplanes are full, there's no profit - yet. You'll start to see fares edging up as the bookings increase - in fact that's already happening. Once yields (ie profit) are getting close to where they were in 2001, you'll see capacity increases on the routes affected after 9/11. Indeed, BA and Virgin have announced some service re-introductions to take place later in the year, but it's a slower proces than you might think.

[El Desperado]

From a charter/IT point of view, I can see things picking up towards the end of the year or the beginning of 2003.

Currently, we are short of Airbus crew and, despite management saying so, short of Boeing crew. Our working lives are pretty miserable in terms of quality of life because, although the jobs are there, the company is just not prepared to make the financial investment in training at the moment. We are, simply, understaffed.

As we all reach our allotted monthly and yearly hours, the airline is going to be in a bind, notice that all the flights are full and we're doing pretty well thankyouverymuch, and the hiring will begin.

Not on a mammoth scale, but heavy jet seats attract turbo-prop pilots who in turn leave jobs for newly qualified CPLs. Most charter companies train in the quiet(er) winter season, so keep chipping away at them.

I don't know anything about scheduled carriers, and from the snippets I pick up, it always seems as though they're in some restructuring/downsizing/expanding/whatever program ! More difficult to predict, for me anyway.

There are (nearly) always jobs for experienced pilots with a type-rating. Unfortunately, the ratio of jobs available to those who want them for 500 hour CPLs is much, much lower.

Only a guess, but a positive one - I wouldn't be surprised if the sponsorships started appearing again slowly next year. Sponsorships are generally a good deal for an airline but I also wouldn't be surprised if you needed a bit more than zero hours and a lot of enthusiam. (see Astreus !)

As always, good luck.

[no sponsor]

I somewhat disagree, when I look at my own circumstances.

I travel full fare in business, since promotional fares are pretty useless, as you don't have the flexibility you need when meetings change, or you need to catch different flights due to unforeseen circumstances, which is a must on nearly all trips I do.

Sure, BA offer some promotional offers, but usually I get deals when I've committed to so much business full fare travel. Upgrades happen very rarely to people, and only occur when a class is full. I have often travelled in Economy when on holiday, praying that the flight is full, so I can get upgraded, only to find economy has too many spare seats for them to upgrade you, (and I am considered a pretty valuable customer to BA).

Just pop into a business lounge at LHR on a Monday morning to see the amount of business travellers on Club tickets.

At the end of the day, the "there are no premium travellers anymore" story is more fiction than fact.

[Meeb]

Its true that BA have cut fares on their domestic network, but not on their long haul flights. I have been checking out tickets for a trip to Oz and they are not any cheaper than normal, so economy yield is not an issue, and as others have said, business yield is improving. They have cut back on flights though which I guess is making the existing flights more busy, but they will have to increase flights sooner or later, lets hope sooner.