View Full Version : Arab-Israeli Powder Keg.

Moritz Suter
7th Apr 2002, 11:14
It’s amusing, in a perverse sort of way. The United Nations evidently believes that in passing Resolutions 1402 and 1403 it may make a meaningful contribution toward the latest Israeli crimes in Palestine since resolutions 242 and 338 have been comprehensively ignored by Israel for decades.

The situation is fascinating, however, and being very careful not to embrace value judgments that may perhaps contravene the rules of no politics or religion, I thought perhaps it might be topical to plot a strategic scenario from this point forward given the current climate. There are a great many of my fellow Ppruners conversant in the fundamentals of diplomacy and military efficacy, and so I though an hypothetical might prove interesting.

Saturday night in the United Kingdom saw the broadcast of a 24 hour old interview of President GW Bush by British television journalist Trevor Macdonald. In it, the President, in his cringingly inarticulate, ‘good ole boy’ style, peppered with more grabs than a ride on the Tokyo Metro, said that it was the policy of his government to remove Sadaam Hussein from power in Iraq. When pressed on how and when, the President responded with “wait and see.”

Sadaam considers himself a messianic Arab figure, and knows that he’s soon to be moved against. The peace initiative of Crown Prince Abdullah has been ignored by Israel, as have the ‘instructions’ of both President Bush and Colin Powell, the United States Secretary of State, to withdraw from the occupied lands “without delay”.

It is a widely held fact that Sadaam possess WMD (weapons of mass destruction), of a chemical/biological variety along with the means to deliver them. http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/iraq/

Should he seize the day and lob, say, an al Tammuz-2 filled with Agent 15 or Anthrax (Iraq currently has the capability of producing around 350 litres of weapons grade Anthrax each week) into Israel, what would be a likely Israeli response? I believe they would deploy a nuclear weapon at Baghdad in retaliation, after which not even an Army of Jordan's King Abdullah’s, Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah’s or President Mubarak’s of Egypt could hold back the storm of Arab revenge.

Add to this heady brew the fact that the US cannot allow the flow of Saudi Oil to be compromised, and that an early objective of any organized Arab response to the Israeli attack on Iraq would be to secure the Holy sites of Mecca and Medina, we have the makings of a rather large ‘situation’.

Over to you, keyboard militarist and seated strategists.

What happens next?

7th Apr 2002, 11:33
Hello M.S.
Not long ago I took you serious and posted in the Bomber Harris thread. Even defended the swiss if I recall it correctly.
This time I prefer to remain a keyboard militarist, mouth shut. ;)

Moritz Suter
7th Apr 2002, 11:39
Yes Captain104,

I remember you well. Your contribution was well conceived, if a little too openly conciliatory for my liking. I respect your decision to observe from a safe distance, but I in particular, along with many others would, I'm sure, value your current thinking.


7th Apr 2002, 14:09
My two penn'orth:-

It ill-behoves the USA and UK to go after Iraq and Saddam Hussein when Israel is in such a state of turmoil that the whole of the Middle East is being destabilised. King Abdullah of Jordan is being threatened by it and, if he falls, opening the way for more extremism, worse will follow, quite possibly in the Kingdom of the Sauds. What price oil then?

Bush and Blair's first priority has to be to encourage a settlement of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict. Furthermore, it has to be an equitable settlement, in which both Israel feels her borders are secure, and the Palestinians no longer feel like second-class citizens in their own country. (NB I'm not saying they ARE - I'm saying they feel like that.)

The discussion, I suspect, will have to include the Gaza Strip and the Golan Heights as well as the West Bank.

I am by no means anti-Israel. I am anti-Sharon. Had Begin not been assassinated by right-wing extremists I think the entire region would have been in a much more peaceful, productive and happy state now than it is.

7th Apr 2002, 15:39
Snore-sleep-mouth shut.
Wakeup call!
Begin assassinated? Hhmmm. Menachim Begin died peacefully in 1992.
Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated in 1995.

Back to snore-sleep-mouth shut. :D

7th Apr 2002, 15:42
Oops - quite correct. Fingers going faster than brain would carry them.

Moritz Suter
7th Apr 2002, 18:35
One thing I can promise you, Huggy, on the long list of things that should be returned to the Palestinians...protection of International Law, self determination, absence of torture, return of fundamental human rights, obeisance of United Nations resolutions 242 and 338, compensation for EU funded development projects like their airport and others, wantonly destroyed by Israel for no other reason than projection of terror (YES terror), the Golan Heights ain't gunna be one of them.

The Golan Heights are strategically non-negotiable to the Israelis, and the location of VERY high-tech espionage, ESM ESSM ECM, and signals monitoring equipment. Golan will need to be taken back.

Perhaps an alternate course of action would be to provide Palestine with equivalence of funding from around the world, in much the same way as Israel obtains it. At least then the conflict would be fair.


7th Apr 2002, 20:05
Are not the Americans relatively relaxed about the oil weapon because Russia has underwritten their supplies for the future?

The Israelis hear the rhetoric from Washington, but they know the reality. Evan as the tanks roll in the West Bank and Gaza the first of a fleet of Blackhawks has been handed over. The US will continue to arm Israel because it has no domestic political choice. If they turned off the arms and the money, Israel would come to heel - but it won't happen.

7th Apr 2002, 22:25
Moritz, I am quite aware that the Israelis have all sorts of reasons for wanting to hang on to all sorts of bits and pieces. No shortage of quality research.

You may, however, be aware that the proposals put forward by Abdullah include a withdrawal of Israel to pre-1967 positions in return for recognition by all Arab states and assurances of security. This would include withdrawal from the Golan Heights, the West Bank and Gaza.

Sick Squid
7th Apr 2002, 23:09
Wakes up from the corner...

Errr, hello. Ehmm, lets see. No Politics or Religion. OK. Lets look for something that can be misinterpreted in there. Ehhhmmm..... nope. Nothing. Not even given a clever posting style, facing the statement head-on in the initial post; been done before. I can't see the hole whereby one can insert an interpretion of the statement...

Look. If you really want to discuss these topics, go do them somewhere else. There's some site, (called Newsmax I think,) that caters to all this.. OK, it's overwhelmed by one-issue merchants, but Hey! so's PPRuNe so give it a break, keep the politics and the religion and the hypotheses derived thereof for elsewhere.


Drifts back into slumber....