Time to give up?

[Cruise Alt]

After todays events in the US does anyone else have that bad feeling that Airline recruitment will dry up? Having been looking for a first commercial job since April with all the struggling and heartache of endless PFO's and we want 1000 hours, I thought if I persisted succes would come. I have even invested in an instructors rating to build these hours. But, at 32 not only can I remember the situation of trying to get a pilot job (well sponsorship or military) in the early 90's, I also think that if I have to wait 3 years for the industry to recover from the fallout I will be too old to be considered. Is it worth spending yet more cash on renewing my IR? I would be interested to hear any other opinions on our future careers. :( :( :( :( :(

[Murray_NN]

At 2pm today I finished work at LHR as a Security Guard for BAA.

It was shocking to hear that 4 planes can be hijacked at the same time, in the USA.

US flight crew are always reluctant to go through our search procedures at LHR.

And me, I will be back to work tomorrow at 7am and I still wanna become a commercial pilot. There is no question. If I die in the air then at least I die where I loved to spend my time.

Take care!

[Pilot Pete]

Cruise Alt

The world will go on, and people will still fly, and barring all out war I think the industry will continue. Western governments won't give in to terrorism and will back their banks to prevent economic collapse.

Time will heal the US economy and aviation industry, but I feel pretty sure ours will continue as normally as possible fairly quickly.

Don't give up just yet.

Regards

PP

[mdieker]

The people who did this, their aim is to disrupt society. If you give-up you'll let these people succeed. We are all concerned about the consequences these events will have on the aviation industry. Problably the public will be reserved to take the plane and crew hiring will dry up. On the medium/long term confidence in aviation safety of the public will recover. I think the world will never be the same (for me) after what has happened today, but we have to continue with our lives. Remember Cruise alt: you can only fail when you give up.

Wish you all the best

regards

Regional

[scroggs]

Commercial aviation has survived and even thrived through wars and other crises over the last 100 years; this event will have many repercussions, but the death of commercial aviation is not one of them.
Military aviation, however, is likely to have a brief resurgence!

[sydneyc]

Yesterday was an horrific day and from someone who used to work in one of those buildings, there are people all over the world, not just in the US, who are on tenterhooks waiting for news re' casualties.

But this is not going to destroy commercial aviation. Purely from this point of viewthis was a series of extraorindary events that are almost impossible to factor into standard procedures. An innocent flight deck visit may have been all it took to present the opportunities required. And Fundementalism has a different value system to our own - in radical forms, self preservation is not important. My point is that if these aircraft had crashed through severe navigational problems, design faults, engine issues then the repercussions for commercial operationswould be worse. But in this case, aviation was a victim.

Of course this will dent the psyche of many nations, but flight is an integral part of modern life. It will recover.

However, Cruise Alt' you mention that you are worried that at 35 you will be unemployable? Surely you are worrying unecessarily about your age? Think twice before calling it a day.

sydneyc

[Bluebaron]

i see you've only been looking for a job for 5 months.

It took me 3 years 3 months and 24 days to get my first airline job. (3 years 6 months and 20 days to start date). Incidently i have approx 1100 hours.

Keep trying though it will come together in the end. I blame the schools for all the crap they feed you about jobs being availible on jets days after getting your IR.

If people on this forum know that they will have a 50K bill and several years of job-hunting ahead of them then at least they can't complain when the jobs don't come flooding in.

That said if their dedication and commitment to the job is such that they don't mind then those are the kind of people that we want to see fly for the airlines.

Remember people this is the reality, if you still think it's for you then go for it, damn what everyone else said, HOWEVER if want a cushy ride then do something else with your 50K.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
good luck with the job hunting

[Meeb]

Cruise Alt is not asking if 'commercial aviation' is finished, he is asking if recuitment will stop, read the question, or maybe that should be RTFQ!

I got my first commercial licence only a few months before the Gulf War hit, that took many years to recover from and I fear this will be similiar. If the American public stop flying, the rest of the world suffers closely behind.

I feel anyone who has a job will hold onto it and not look around to move as much as they might have if this event had'nt happened.

Cruise Alt, at least you have a FI ticket, it took me 2 years to save enough to get that after I got my 'useless' commercial licence. Continue instructing, gaining hours, one thing I did was never to give up, it will gte better, and when it does you will be well placed to succeed, and your age is not against you. Good luck.

[mechantloup]

it took me 6 years for my first "well paid" airline job.And it doesn't worth the money.If I have to restart I would certainly NOT consider a career in Aviation.
It's expensive, risky, and it's a high stress job, requiring lot of sacrifices.I like to fly but view the situation in europe, I suggest you to do something else unless you like to lose time and money.
I warn anybody that : 1 .there is no pilot shortage and there will be not a pilot shortage in the futur.2.a minimum of 200h is not enough to apply in any airline , their minimums are 1500h, 200 h of jet time. 3.there is no way to reach these minimums cuz nobody is going to hire you.4.you licence are issued for a short period of time and it's very expensive to renew it.5. Europe is a territory where discrimination is not banished like in the States 6.Airlines hire 40% of his pilots from military pilots or they sponsor cadet pilots.7. self sponsore or self education are not well "seen"by airline due to "bad habits".
8.JAR license are still not recognized by the 15 countries of Europe.9.CAA doesn't know what they want.10. Only flight Schools make money.

the result is: THEY DON'T WANT YOU!

[DeltaTango]

On the comtrary....I hear from credible sources that AA have some Positines in the flight deck-recently vacated...

:rolleyes:

DT

[flite idol]

DT I hope you have a good explanation for that comment matey.!

[Right Way Up]

DeltaTango.......Foxtrot Oscar

[Delta Wun-Wun]

Mechantloup....Not today there`s a good boy..Give it a rest.
Delta T .....Well words fail me!!!

[ 12 September 2001: Message edited by: Delta Wun-Wun ]

[scroggs]

MerchantLoup, just shut up boy.
DeltaTango, that kind of idiotic bad taste 'joke' may go down well in your local pub after 10 beers, but it is totally inappropriate on a website dedicated to aviation. Many, many people have died and you want to get a snide laugh out of it. Please apologise, or cease posting.
People, please do not go off the deep end of despair about your job prospects. Yes, there will be a fallout from this as the public's confidence in flying is affected. But the public has a very short collective memory, and they will very soon be looking for their next break in the sun, or whatever. The business world will have to carry on regardless, although we already, and will continue to, see a reduction in travel due to the economic slowdown. That may well get worse in the short term, but we will recover.
It may well be that the minimum acceptable qualifications rise to 1000-1500 hours, with some jet time, to get an airline job. I can tell you that most of the airline operators and their passengers will welcome that. You may, as did many before you, have to spend time on an apprenticeship on airtaxi work or similar.
But you think you've got it tough? In the States (and many other places) it was already commonplace to need 3000+ hours before a 'real' airline job came your way. The effect on US wannabes of the failure of Midway and the crisis in the domestic sector, and the very real problems that AA and United in particular will face as their customers desert them in droves after yesterday, will make your problems getting a job in UK seem trivial.

[ 13 September 2001: Message edited by: Scroggs ]

[foghorn]

Anyone spotted the similarity between mechantloup and Ronch?

Strip out a few of Ronch's more deranged rantings, sort out the spelling a bit, underneath you've got the same boring single-subject diatribes.

Step forward, Ronchonner. With your ever-changing usernames you too have a "yellow tattoo on your d**k" (sorry folks, couldn't resist it).

[Cruise Alt]

Many thanks to all of you for your support. Meeb is right that I know commercial aviation will survive, it is just the short to middle term that concerns me. An IR is an expensive thing to renew and my FI pay doesn't cover the rent. I am wondering if I can cope with another 3 or so years before getting a job that pays enough for me to go to the pub without my friends feeling that they have to subsidise me.

My girlfriend returned from Europe last night on a flight with only 50 PAX of the 150 capacity. It was supposedly fully booked. Can airlines continue to operate with this much drop in trade? This came on the same day that all BA Flight crew were sent a letter describing the dire financial position of the company and comparing it to the similar positions of it's competitors and it was written before the US tragedy.

My dilemma is whether to continue trying or to come back to it when the market recovers.

PS Please do not use this as another ‘JAA Vs Ronchonner thread. And my sympathies go out to anyone reading this who knew anyone in Tuesdays disasters. The thoughts of DeltaTango are totally tasteless and I am sorry they have been attached to my thread
:( :( :( :(

[RVR800]

My main concern is for all those suffering
in New York - a place where I have flown and
visited.

I just feel sad for them

But on a purely selfish career point..

Sad to say it aint looking good..

I try to be positive but today even I am
feeling a tad nervous.

Things can only get better?

Oil prices are escalating as well
nearly $30 now

BBCs 'Blackest day' Report

BA shares have gone down 20% today!

The BBCs report follows and it is not pretty

Losses are mounting for airlines around the world, and the bankruptcy of some carriers is looking increasingly likely, following the terrorist attacks on the US.
And the European Union said on Friday that it feared the attacks could have serious consequences for the air transport sector, adding that it will monitor events to avoid a crisis in the sector.

What has happened will almost certainly push us over the edge

Professor Rigas Doganis
Share prices of airlines have fallen sharply since the attacks as brokerages and credit agencies have cut their the financial outlook for the firms.

And carriers themselves have begun to issue initial statements of their expected losses.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has estimated that this week's flight cancellations will cost the air industry $10bn.

On top of the cost of at least a week of severe disruptions, airlines are likely to face a sharp decline in passenger numbers over the next months.

The air industry was already under financial pressure before the attacks, because of a slump in demand due to the economic downturn and high jet fuel prices.

'High instability'

"The airline industry is cyclical," Professor Rigas Doganis, former head of Olympic Airways, told the BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

The air industry in five years time will look very different

Professor Doganis

"It seemed as though we were on the edge of a downturn. What has happened will almost certainly push us over the edge.

"Airlines have been losing money in the last few months and it now seems these losses will increase dramatically."

The short-term losses springing from the severe disruption and cancellations over the past week could eventually seem small in comparison with the losses from dwindling demand for tickets.

"We will see a period of high instability, a number of airlines will probably collapse, there will be a period of consolidation and the air industry in four to five years time will look very different to how it does today," Professor Doganis said.

Series of downgrades

The outlook for the US industry looked sufficiently bleak for credit agency Standard and Poor's to downgrade its ratings of the corporate credit and loans of all US airlines.

Higher security will add to airlines costs

The agency has also placed Air Canada and British Airways on credit watch because of these companies' substantial dependence on traffic to the US.

Between the end of trade on Monday and 1100 GMT on Friday, the price of British Airways shares fell by 35%.

The stock lost 11% of its value on Friday morning alone.

Schroder Salomon Smith Barney has downgraded the entire European airline sector, saying the terror attacks were likely to have a "catastrophic effect" on airline profitability.

US airlines are planning for falls in demand of 30-50% during the next six months, Chris Avery, aviation analyst at JP Morgan told the Financial Times.

And grounding aeroplanes, rather than flying empty seats around the world, may be one of the ways which airlines can try and save costs.

Asia hard hit

Asian airlines - which were already in financial difficulty and who fly a heavy proportion of transatlantic flights - are also expected to be hard hit.

Friday share losses for Asian airlines
Korean Air down 6%
Asiana down 11%
China airlines down 7%
Singapore Airlines down 6%

US routes account for as much as 25% of all business of many Asian carriers, and All Nippon Airways has said that it is losing 60m yen ($502,200) a day on the cancellations.

Korean Airlines said its immediate revenue loss stemming from attacks was 15bn won ($11.5m) while the country's second-ranked Asiana Airlines put its losses at about five billion won.

Korean Air shares fell 6% at the close on Friday and Asiana dropped 11%.

Taiwan's largest carrier China Airlines, which derives 20% of its revenues from Taiwan-US routes, fell 7%.

And Asia's biggest listed airline, Singapore Airlines, shed nearly 6% of its value.

Security costs

Tighter security measure will hike costs for the airlines and deter passengers.

In the near term US airports will be near paralysed, because they will go overboard on security

Peter Harbison
Aviation analyst

The US has already introduced new measures including strict screening, a ban of checking in baggage outside the airport, and a total ban on knives and scissors.

And even tighter measures are likely to follow, with America's IATA saying it would like to see as many airlines as possible to introduce scanning systems which identify passengers by palm-prints or the iris of the eye.

Delays in processing passengers will slash terminal capacity, probably forcing the busiest airports to scale down their peak-hour operations, according to analysts.

Studies have shown that even a one-minute delay for the average passenger could significantly cut terminal capacity.

"I think in the near term you are going to see US airports will be near paralysed, because they will go overboard on security," said Peter Harbison, an analyst at the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation.

'Blackest day'

One industry expert dubbed the attack "the blackest day aviation has had," with other catastrophes, such as the 1988 Lockerbie bomb, paling in comparison.

The attacks will affect both bookings to and from the US.

While there is expected to be a dramatic decline in passengers to the US, American tourists are expected to cut back on their international holidays.

As seen during the Gulf War, US tourists are likely to be concerned about becoming targets of terrorists when travelling outside their home country.

[ 14 September 2001: Message edited by: RVR800 ]

[E-Fizz]

You know, I wouldn't worry about your age or about the peaks and troughs in airline recruitment. The world does not stop functioning in times of recession and airline travel will be on the increase in future years. Of course, you have to worry about the expense and keeping current but there are always ways of solving these issues - with the will you'll find the way.

You must adopt the correct frame of mind and then focus yourself - realise the consequences of losing and then concentrate on winning.

[ 14 September 2001: Message edited by: E-Fizz ]

[AH64 APACHE]

All I can say is that if anyone knows what is going to happen to them in a years time then they should be playing the stockmarket not the pilots game. Try and see what you get - you never know. I am in debt but enjoying it - who knows what you will find - condolences to all those who suffered.

AH64 APACHE :(