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KAG
14th May 2012, 13:07
Please note that the auxiliary verb used in the question is "will", not "should".


Easy poll: yes or no.

Ancient Observer
14th May 2012, 13:07
Yes........

Fox3WheresMyBanana
14th May 2012, 13:18
Yes.

Note that Greece has been in default on its international loans for half of its modern history.

gobbledock
14th May 2012, 13:37
I wouldn't worry to much about Greece leaving the Euro.
The Euro was doomed from it's very birth. It is dying friends, thats why they call money 'fiat money'. Greece will wake up to a bank holiday very soon, watch this space. Italy owes over 2 trillion itself. Both Italy and Greece have interest payments due on their loans within the next few months, they can't pay it and nobody has the money to lend to them or bail them out. Add to the mix Spain, Portugal, Ireland and you have a collapsing system.
Germany couldn't bail everybody out even if it wanted too, and it is very wary as it remembers the Reinmark, 1923 and hyperinflation.

Once this finally collapses (as has commenced) the good ol USA will sink. Their debt level now exceeds 16 trillion and is beyond saving. But of course the naughty Yanks are blaming all and sundry in Europe for the problems on American soil, but the truth is that America has done a stellar job at sinking themselves. Their debts are irreversible and extending the debt ceiling has bought them maybe 12 - 18 more months. Just enough time to prepare. Prepare for what? Well look at the Greece and Spain riots and look at what happens when incompetent governments run out of bullshit answers and spin. Don't believe me? Do some research - in the past 6 months the USA government has removed the 4th and 6th amendments, introduced the NDAA rule and been building FEMA camps! The government knows what is coming.
The financial system is collapsing. Greed and capitalism is about to reap what is has sewn.

The house of Rothschild must be laughing....

OFSO
14th May 2012, 13:42
Yes

(With the proviso that the EU doesn't pull the usual fiddle and change the rules so that Greece can stay in)

Andy_S
14th May 2012, 14:12
Yes. But since the answer is so obvious, you’re asking the wrong question.

The question you should be asking is “After Greece, who’s next”??

dead_pan
14th May 2012, 14:35
No. Der powers zat be vil not allow it.

Fox3WheresMyBanana
14th May 2012, 14:38
Interesting piece by Robert Peston today, especially last para.

BBC News - Could the euro survive a Greek exit? (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18058270)

Given the recent Election results in NordRhein-Westphalia, it is possible the German people will be the ones to pull the plug on the others, by refusing further loans.

This could get very messy. Dead Pan is right about the "powers that be" doing everything in (and if Peston is right, outside) their power to prevent it, but they may not "be" much longer.

Storminnorm
14th May 2012, 14:47
Sack 'em all I say !!!!

Sack 'em ALL !!!!

I REALLY miss threepenny bits and sixpences.

onetrack
14th May 2012, 14:55
Greece is simply facing two hard choices.

1. Go broke, exit the EU and the Euro, and do it tough for years, trying to survive by starting from scratch again.
2. Stay with the EU and the Euro, accept the EU bailout, and do it tough for years, trying to cope with unbelievable "austerity" - as well as pay back vast sums to the EU.

The voters seem to be confused. The voters have voted for fringe parties that seem to want to stay in the EU, but don't want to accept the bailout.

The Greek Deputy PM has put some hardener into the coming scenario. "In 6 weeks time, Greece will run out of money".
No wages or pensions will be paid. Debts will be reneged on. Greek banks will go bust. Unemployment will soar to levels of the Great Depression (up to 35%).

Tourist-related businesses will do best, as tourists will bring in hard currency. However, tourists will have to carry wads of cash into Greece with them - because no Greek business will be operating on any form of credit, they will be "cash only" - nor will they be dealing in a new Drachma, until some value for it can be agreed on.

The Greeks are facing a period of turmoil and deprivation unparalleled since WW2. However, from what info I've gleaned, there's a lot of Greeks preparing for it by reverting to a subsistence lifestyle, by growing their own vegetables and bartering.
I've no doubt they will survive admirably, albeit poorly, by our modern consumer society standards. I don't think we'll see as many rotund, plump Greeks, as we used to.

Sunnyjohn
14th May 2012, 15:21
"Who can say?" (from Hitch-hiker's Guide to the Galaxy)

OFSO
14th May 2012, 15:41
A very simple question addressed to all those who say "they" won't let it happen:

WHERE'S THE MONEY GOING TO COME FROM ?

dead_pan
14th May 2012, 15:47
The printers attached to Mr Monti's computer.

radeng
14th May 2012, 17:19
Who was it who said 'Socialism is fine until you run out of other people's money to spend'?

flyingwerks
14th May 2012, 17:28
Scrub everything and start again!

Tableview
14th May 2012, 17:37
It's a choice between the lesser of two massive financial catastrophes. I doubt if it is even possible to calculate whether the cost to the ECB is greater if they stay in and are constantly bailed out, or if the strings are cut and they are allowed to sink.

It's a Greek tragedy for them, whichever way you look at it, because if they'd never been allowed to join the Euro, they'd have carried on muddling along perfectly happily, fiddling and cheating their taxes, as they have for centuries. It's the outside interference that has caused the disaster.

There is, according to my Europhile friend, 'nothing wrong with the Euro'. It is working as it's meant to, he still insists. I honestly don't know how to answer that! The picture belows tell a story, and sterling is not in good shape.

http://i1078.photobucket.com/albums/w497/pprunemike/Euro.jpg

Unixman
14th May 2012, 18:48
Maggie ...

dead_pan
14th May 2012, 20:27
Socialism is fine until you run out of other people's money to spend

And capitalism is fine until the people you've recklessly lent money to turn around and tell you they can't pay it back.

There is once recent example of a large socialist (well communist actually) country lending the world's biggest capitalist economy vast sums of money to spend on all manner of trinkets. Funny that.

stuckgear
14th May 2012, 20:50
There is once recent example of a large socialist (well communist actually) country lending the world's biggest capitalist economy vast sums of money to spend on all manner of trinkets. Funny that.


And there is also a recent example of a socialist government taking a surplus from a previous capitalist government and turning it into crippling debt, and with, well basicially nothing, not even trinkets to show for it.

:hmm:


(UK)

TZ350
14th May 2012, 21:05
An interesting opinion on the Golden Dawn party.........

European Nationalism: Golden Dawn or Old and Gone? - Taki's Magazine (http://takimag.com/article/european_nationalism_golden_dawn_or_old_and_gone_jim_goad/page_2#axzz1ulPx65XP)

Could the UK spawn a version of the Golden Dawn when the manure really hits the fan.................:hmm:

stuckgear
14th May 2012, 21:14
An interesting opinion on the Golden Dawn party.........

European Nationalism: Golden Dawn or Old and Gone? - Taki's Magazine (http://takimag.com/article/european_nationalism_golden_dawn_or_old_and_gone_jim_goad/page_2#axzz1ulPx65XP)

Could the UK spawn a version of the Golden Dawn when the manure really hits the fan.................http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/yeees.gif

going by the standard of UK pollies, it would probably the Golden Shower Party. Pollies have been p1ssing on the electorate for years.

plus ca change, plus ca change.

Brace, brace. Dark times ahead as Greece heads for the exit - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/9265623/Brace-brace.-Dark-times-ahead-as-Greece-heads-for-the-exit.html)

ZeBedie
14th May 2012, 21:53
70% of the Greek people want to stay in the euro. What's to stop Greece defaulting and stubbornly refusing to leave the euro? So Greece gets thrown out of the EU? It could still hang onto the euro.

Montenegro isn't in the EU, but its official and only currency is the euro. The ECB and Brussels have complained, but Montenegro ignores the complaints and happily gets on with it. Greece could do the same?

radeng
14th May 2012, 22:03
Stuckgear,

There was something left - a note saying ' 'there's no money left' or similar.

shalo
14th May 2012, 22:21
Sat in the middle of all this mess is France and its newly elected socialist government.... scary times ahead!!

racedo
14th May 2012, 22:28
Greece is bankrupt and has lied its way through everything........it makes the Italians look like upstanding tax paying citizens.

They need to be kicked out end of story as that is only sanction available.

dead_pan
14th May 2012, 23:00
Montenegro isn't in the EU, but its official and only currency is the euro. The ECB and Brussels have complained, but Montenegro ignores the complaints and happily gets on with it. Greece could do the same? Interesting thought. I suppose there's nothing stopping any country adopting the currency. Not quite sure how they would go about broadening their money supply beyond any hard currency they could earn through trade, tourism etc. It would probably require some mind-bending financial jiggery pokery - I'm sure there are plenty of bankers who would be willing to show them how...

corsair
14th May 2012, 23:30
If you really want to know how things will pan out, have a look at the odds offered by the bookies. I just checked out the odds on Paddy Power first for Greece to be first to exit the Euro. They are offering 8/1 on, that is for those of you ignorant of betting that means you'll need bet 8 units of your favourite currency to win one.

As for the Euro break by 2015 up the odds are an astonishing 1/10:eek:

When bookies offer those kind of odds, they're saying the race is over even before it starts.

The bookies don't get it wrong very often.:uhoh:

G-CPTN
14th May 2012, 23:53
Fred Done (Betfred) was the first ever bookmaker to pay out early, when back in March 1998 he paid out punters who had backed Manchester United to win the Premier League, only for Arsenal to pip United by one point.

During the 2004/05 Premier League season, Fred Done lost £1m to fellow bookmaker Victor Chandler after staking that amount that Manchester United would finish higher than Chelsea.

Betfred also paid out early on Manchester United to win the 2011/12 Premier League title, only for Mancester City to beat them.


From:- Betfred - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betfred)

gobbledock
15th May 2012, 01:01
Tick tock..........
(My bolding)


Greece's deputy prime minister has said the country will run out of money in six weeks unless it honours its bitterly-disputed EU bailout deal.

By Andrew Gilligan (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/journalists/andrew-gilligan/),

Athens
7:00PM BST 12 May
2012

Speaking exclusively to The Sunday Telegraph, Theodoros Pangalos said he was "very much afraid of what is going to happen" after Greek voters rejected the deal in elections last Sunday.
"The majority of the people voted for a very strange mental construction," he said. "We want to be in the EU and the euro, but we don't want to pay anything for the past."
The main beneficiary of the election, the hard-Left Syriza coalition, came a startling second on a promise to tear up the deal, which promises EU loans to keep massively-indebted Greece
afloat, but demands crippling spending cuts in return. Germany, the principal lender, has said it will stop payments if Greece breaks its promises on spending.

Mr Pangalos warned: "There is a school of thought that says the Germans are bluffing. They need Greece and will never throw us out of the eurozone. But what will happen, which is almost certain, is they will not give us the money to pay
our debts.
"We will be in wild bankruptcy, out-of-control bankruptcy. The state will not be able to pay salaries and pensions. This is not recognised by the citizens. We have got until June before we run out of money. "We have been spending the future for half a century. What
[the anti-bailout forces] are really asking from the EU is not just to pay our bills, but also to pay for the deficit which we are still creating.

"I'm sure the Germans don't want Greece to leave the euro. What I don't know is how much they're willing to pay. It depends on the German man on the street. Is he willing to pay his taxes to save Greece? I doubt it."After each of the top three parties at the election failed to form a government, Greece's president, Karolos Papoulias, will on Sunday hold last-ditch talks to cobble together a national unity coalition. The alternative is a fresh election next month which polls show Syriza is likely to win.Mr Pangalos compared Syriza's charismatic leader, Alexis Tsipras, to Venezuela's Hugo Chavez."Are the Germans going to pay for a guy that
wants to imitate Chavez?" he said. "Except that Chavez has oil, and an army."

The deputy prime minister also warned that chaos could boost the neo-fascist Golden
Dawn party, which won an unprecedented seven per cent of the vote, and 21 seats,
in Sunday's election."In the places where the police voted, the fascists got 25 per cent," he said. "They are a serious threat. They have used violence already – you don't know where it
will stop. "You know how it happened in Germany – it started with the Jews, then the Communists, then everybody – it could happen here. This is the country, after the Soviet
Union and Germany itself, with the bigest prcentage of [Second World War] casualties in its population."

Mr Pangalos's Pasok, the Greek Socialist Party, lost three-quarters of its seats at the election after voters blamed it for the bailout deal and the cuts, which have caused enormous hardship
but failed significantly to reduce Greece's debt.
The economy has shrunk by 8.5 per cent in the last year. More than a fifth of the population is out of work and youth unemployment is almost 54 per cent.

Pasok, together with the main conservative party, New Democracy, previously won up to
four-fifths of the vote. Last week, the two established pro-bailout parties were reduced to 32 per cent between them. The streets are calmer since the election. Though Greeks are fearful, thre's also satisfaction at the blow they've dealt to their former rulers.

But the casualties of the bailout are everywhere. On the pavements, junkies openly inject in the middle of the day. And what is striking about Athens beggars is how clean and well-groomed so many are: not sereotypical street-dwellers, but working and professional people deep down on their luck.
As we talked to Mr Pangalos in an upmarket cafe, one man sold lottery tickets wearing
a very decent suit.Yiannis
Bournos, Syriza's European policy spokesman, told The Sunday Telegraph that Greece could afford to reject the bailout deal because European policymakers dared not risk Greece triggering a domino effect – and a potential depression - across Europe."Mr Schaeuble [Germany's finance minister] is pretending to be the fearless cowboy on the radio, saying the euro is secure [against a Greek exit]. But there's no way they will kick us out," he said.

"If we left the euro, the financial markets cold attack Italy. If you owe 3000 euros to the bank and don't pay, they will kill you. If you owe 10 billion euros, they will do everything for you."
He criticised the deputy prime minister's remarks, saying: "Mr Pangalos is in his own sphere. When reality does not agree with him, reality has a problem. It's unbelievable to see the same representatives of the banking interests and of neoliberalism saying that nothing can change. It reminds me of religious fundamentalism. There have been so many changes in Europe in the last two weeks."

Mr Bournos said that even if the EU cut off payments the Greek government could still pay salaries and pensions from its domestic tax revenues. He said the country would seek alternative sources of financing from China, Russia and the Middle East.Left-wingers hope that the election of a new socialist president in France, together with concerns expressed in Italy and the Netherlands about the austerity package, will soften hearts in Berlin. At least in public, however, German officials continued cranking up the pressure yesterday."If Athens doesn't stand by its word, that is a democratic decision," said the Bundesbank chief, Jens Weidmann, in an interview with the Suddeutsche Zeitung newspaper. "But that means the basis for further financial aid falls away."
Mr Weidmann insisted the consquences of Greece leaving the euro "would be more serious for Greece than the rest of the eurozone".It's still possible that everyone could pull back from the
brink. The Germans could soften their demands – next month, Greece is supposed to be outlining further billions in cuts, something which even pro-bailout politicians are starting to balk at. The Greek Left could change it simplistic stand. The can could be kicked down the road some more. But the euro's fundamental problems will remain. And it's equally possible that the EU will merely use the time to erect bigger financial walls around Greece, hoping they can leave it to its fate.

Planning for a Greek exit, now seen as likely by many, has stepped up a gear. Vodafone, a major presence in the Greek telecoms market, said it now sends all cash earned in Greece to the UK "every evening."
Andrew Witty, chief executive of Glaxo SmithKline, said no cash was left in Greece or
"most European countries." Several other British multinationals have made similar statements.
Jonathan Tepper, an economist with Variant Perception, said a debt default and Greek euro exit would happen at only moments' notice after weeks of denials by all concerned.
"To avoid immediate runs on banks, it would be done in a 'surprise' announcement over a weekend when markets and banks are closed," he said. "If necessary, Monday and Tuesday would be declared bank holidays as well."
During this period, diplomats in Athens have been told, cash machines would be turned off and all banks closed. Inside, staff would be "redenominating" euro notes into the new drachma, probably by rubber-stamping them. Capital controls would be imposed to stop Greeks transferring money out of the country electronically and border checks would be
reinstated to prevent them taking out unstamped euros in suitcases.
Mr Tepper is one of a growing number of economists who believe that the so-called "Grexit" might actually be better than years and years of EU-mandated misery."In the past century, 69 countries have exited currency areas with little downward volatility," he says. "The experience of emerging-market countries, such as Argentina, Russia and the 'Asian tigers,' shows that the pain of devaluation would be brief, and rapid growth and recovery would follow."

Greece, however, is not Russia, Argentina or the Far East, with massive mineral wealth and untapped human capital. And everyone concedes that exit would, in the short and medium term, cause Greeks even more terrible pain.
Most economists think that a new, free-floating drachma would immediately crash by up
to 50 per cent against the euro and other currencies, effectively halving the value of everyone's savings and spelling catastrophe for those on fixed incomes, like pensioners.
EU diplomats in Athens have been warned to expect substantial disorder during this period, which would, said one, be "a dream moment for Golden Dawn".
The Sunday Telegraph on Saturday joined the neo-fascists on "patrol" – their word – around Attiki, a poor, inner-city Athens neighbourhood which Golden Dawn says it has "cleaned
up". "This square used to be occupied," said the patrol leader, Nassos Rndekakos. "Full of
illegal immigrants. We took it back. We just emptied the square of everyone: Greeks, foreigners, whatever."But what if they refused to leave?"There's a good way and a bad way," said Mr Rendekakos. "We know both ways."They weren't in their black T-shirts on Saturday, but they were still pretty easy to spot. Their hair was shaved at the sides but not at the
top; they wore near-identical sunglasses, plus biker jackets and gloves, though the day was warm and sunny. Certainly the immigrants, not that there are many on these streets just now, knew who they were, and crossed the road or stepped quietly into doorways as they passed.
They weren't Nazis, they insisted, just nationalists."It's not Hitler we like," said Mr Rendekakos. "It's the way he used to make the best for his country. Hitler took a country with so much debt, unemployment, just before the edge, as we are here – and he managed to make that country great."

On Golden Dawn, there are signs of what might be termed buyers' remorse.The Sunday Telegraph found a number of people who'd voted for them but claimed they now regretted it, and their score in the latest post-election polls is down. Many other residents, however, were genuinely grateful to the fascists. "Six months ago, no-one could walk here," said Christos Yiannis, drinking coffee in Attiki's main square. "Last summer, we didn't come out like this at all. The police did nothing. Golden Dawn cleaned up the squares and made them human for people to enjoy, because the state is absent. The state has collapsed."

As two little girls rode pink tricycles round our table, and the
old men sat reading their newspapers in the sun, it was tempting, so tempting,
to believe there are easy answers to tough problems – none tougher than the mess
Greece now finds itself in.

onetrack
15th May 2012, 01:38
Greece is not Germany, and the comparisons are not valid. There is no Greek "leader" like Hitler on the scene, and not one on the horizon. Hitler created wealth amongst Germans in the 1930's by reneging on all "Jewish" debt (i.e. - all Govt borrowings) and commenced huge employment projects via armaments building and autobahn construction.
Greece will not build armaments, they are basically not warriors with aggressive, militaristic expansion plans, unlike the Germans in the first half of the 20th century.

The Greeks will muddle through with a combination of hidden stashes of Euros (most Greeks have already withdrawn all their cash from their local banks and have it socked away under mattresses), tourist currency, and a combination of subsistence living, graft and bartering.

Nothing much will change once Greece reneges on Euro debt and they are booted out of the EU (note that they will be booted out, they won't actually elect to remove themselves).

The greater fear in Brussels - the underlying, heart-palpitating fear that leaves the Euro financiers and the architects of the EU, dry mouthed and waking in screaming fear at night - is that Greece is just the intial domino that will so very promptly lead to the total breakup of the EU.

Given that the EU was basically a political dream, with little long-term sustainability in reality, is it any wonder that the EU would eventually fall apart?

The Mayans were right. Dec 21, 2012 is increasingly looking like the day the great European Dream of a United States of Europe, fell back to earth in a death spiral that resembles the Challenger disaster.

cavortingcheetah
15th May 2012, 02:34
Last June Pimco advised the ECB to establish a $1 trillion safety net and to get rid of Greece for its fraudulent EU entry procedures. The EU derided such sage advice and installed Lucas Papademos as its stooge upon the Hellenic prime ministerial throne. That's the same Papademos who, as Governor of the Bank of Greece, apparently cooked the books which got Greece the entrance into the EU.
What the politicos in Brussels fear the most of all is that, once extricated from the EU and with its own devalued currency reinstated, the country will, in a year or so, make a success of things. This would set such a self evident course of action example to Italy, Spain and Eire as to cause the roots to curl on even the most assiduously nurtured Bonsai tree.

probes
15th May 2012, 04:06
What the politicos in Brussels fear the most of all is that, once extricated from the EU and with its own devalued currency reinstated, the country will, in a year or so, make a success of things.

How? .......................

ORAC
15th May 2012, 04:34
How? . Ask Iceland.

Tableview
15th May 2012, 07:31
70% of the Greek people want to stay in the euro. Of course they do, and oddly enough my Europhile frend sees that as further proof of how wonderful the Euro is and how well it works. It's like a spoilt teenager living off its parents unbounded generosity.

Kicking Greece out of the Euro seems like a tempting option but giving the almost incredibly stupidity, obduracy, and myopia of the political cabal who designed it, is not one that was foreseen. The ECB has lent it so much money that it can't afford to write off the debt, but neither does it have a way of ensuring repayment, whether Greece stays or goes.

If Greece left the Euro, and ended up with no currency of its own, I suppose Euros could circulate as a de facto means of payment, but I am not sure how banking and commerce would operate.

Would it be in the same situation as Zimbabwe where various other currencies circulate as de facto means of payment? I believe there is an official currency (ZWR) which exists only as a 'virtual' currency to justify the existence of a Reserve Bank and various highly paid officials whose political allegiance just happen to be ZANU-PF.

Effluent Man
15th May 2012, 07:42
It's difficult to see any other outcome really.The trouble is that various parties are encouraging the population to behave irresponsibly for their own advantage.The collapse of Greece isn't the problem though,it's if Spain and Italy follow.

ZeBedie
15th May 2012, 08:12
If Greece left the Euro, and ended up with no currency of its own, I suppose Euros could circulate as a de facto means of payment, but I am not sure how banking and commerce would operate.

What if the Greek central bank were to 'create' euros as required? There would be fury in Berlin, but what could they do?

mustpost
15th May 2012, 08:24
Greeks apologise with huge horse (http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/greeks-apologise-with-huge-horse-2012051527146)

Tableview
15th May 2012, 08:29
What if the Greek central bank were to 'create' euros as required?

I don't see how they can as it would be forgery. At least, if you or I did it would, but probably if a government did it, it wouldn't! The real notes have to be backed by a reserve bank, but then I don't think the ECB has much left to back it with anyway.

Flap 5
15th May 2012, 08:45
I voted 'No'. Now why would that happen?

They have already had many 'critical' dates and meetings when the Greek government and euro countries 'had' to make a decision. The blame for problems even often fell on the UK when we are not even in the euro!

On each occasion a decision was fudged. We are talking about politicians here. They will fudge a decision again. That is pretty much guaranteed, whatever else happens.

They may eventually leave the euro but the politicians will drag the problem into 2013, and quite possibly beyond.

stuckgear
15th May 2012, 08:55
as a response to the thread poll, does a euro split count as leaving the euro ?

as tableview points out the problems are damned if greece leaves (italy, spain, portugal, ireland) and damned if they dont.

so if the euro splits into the premier division with say, the scandic countries and a second division with greece, spain, portugal, ireland and france. that may stave off the inevitable for a bit longer.

but then as the europhiles would say, this is all going exactly to plan. so what is the plan? economic suicide ??

AlpineSkier
15th May 2012, 08:58
What if the Greek central bank were to 'create' euros as required? There would be fury in Berlin, but what could they do?

Presumably the situation would be that everybody would be checking the serial numbers on their notes as Greek ones would be worthless outside Greece.

I think I'll dig out that article which tells you the prefix/suffix that denotes Greek notes and start checking mine from now on since everyone agrees that everything will happen with no notice.

AlpineSkier
15th May 2012, 09:02
so if the euro splits into the premier division with say, the scandic countries and a second division with greece, spain, portugal, ireland and france. that may stave off the inevitable for a bit longer.



I don't see how because they have to have different currencies with different "rules" otherwise there is no division and no benefit to the laggards.

stuckgear
15th May 2012, 09:16
personally, i don't think a euro-split would work now, as i said it would only stave off the inevitable a bit longer. a few years ago, possibly a euro-split may have worked, but that ship has sailed.

here is an article about the subject and greek risk dating back to 2008..
Will the euro split? - MoneyWeek (http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/will-the-euro-split)

its now 4 years later and still going around in ever decreasing circles. do i think a split would work now ? no. but then the Eurocrats are so far behind the power curve trying to eke as much out of the trough as possible and extend the dream that is now a nightmare, that they may well 'give it try'.

dead_pan
15th May 2012, 09:19
Greece's deputy prime minister has said the country will run out of money in six weeks unless it honours its bitterly-disputed EU bailout deal.

Ahh the ol' "we'll run out of money in six weeks" ploy. How many times have we heard that one over the past year?

What if the Greek central bank were to 'create' euros as required?

They wouldn't be able to carry on minting Euro notes and coins if they did leave the Eurozone/EU (mind you, it would be hilarious if they did - the Germans would go crazy), but as I said before I'm sure there must be a backdoor way they can conjur electronic Euros. Goldmans is probably in Athens as we speak advising them.

Andy_S
15th May 2012, 09:39
What if the Greek central bank were to 'create' euros as required? There would be fury in Berlin, but what could they do?

If they continue to print their own Euros, then I guess Eurozone member states will simply refuse to accept them, and other countries will only exchange them at a rate independent of the main currency.

If they use non-greek Euros as an official currency then I guess there’s nothing to stop them doing so. But where and how will the government accumulate enough of them to pay wages?

stuckgear
15th May 2012, 09:50
Goldmans is probably in Athens as we speak advising them.


if the vampire squid is, then the only outcome is; it'll cost us big and goddamn sachs will make big out of it.

hval
15th May 2012, 10:39
I voted "No".

The Greeks have been getting much "free" money from the rest of Europe and have avoided paying taxes. They would like this situation to continue.

The European Commission would not like to see Greece leaving the Euro as this would mean that all the money given/ lent to Greece will never be recovered. The Euro experiment would also be perceived as a failure.

Another reason the European Commission would not like Greece to leave is due to reduction in size of their Empire.

ZeBedie
15th May 2012, 10:46
If they use non-greek Euros as an official currency then I guess there’s nothing to stop them doing so. But where and how will the government accumulate enough of them to pay wages?

They could just create electronic money - QE - without the permission of the official eurozone. What could Brussels do? It could destroy the currency, but what has Greece got to loose?

stuckgear
15th May 2012, 11:21
The Greeks have been getting much "free" money from the rest of Europe and have avoided paying taxes. They would like this situation to continue.


who wouldn't but then again, this is exactly what the anti-austerity promises certain political parties are making accross the EU.

however, the 'fault' doesnt lie with the greeks entirely. when they first went for EU membership, they didnt meet the economic criteria, then lo, the vampire squid rides into town and six months later, greece magically makes the euro criteria.

the EU were well aware and assisted in the 'cooking of the books'; they were either crassly negligent in not performing due dilligence on the 'new' financials or complicit by not inspecting the finances; heck the EU has even issued 'exemptions' from the criteria for some countries to join the Eurozone.

the greek economy is dominated by tourism and small holding agriculture, both are seasonal, difficult to tax and are subject to fluctuations large scale public spending projects have different drivers in different economies and as such taxation policies. like for example a tax write down for a german company in a large capital equipment purchase write down maybe a new automated factory every 10 years, but in greece it could be a new tractor for a small holding farmer every 20 years. what works for germany may not work for greece, what works for greece may not work for spain.

its probably best if not just greece but every eurozone member departs the failed currency, but then that is not in the best interests of the eu ideologists with thier everlasting trough.

hval
15th May 2012, 11:51
Stuckgear,

Agreed. After all the rest of Europe has been willing to throw money at Greece, and the tax collection system in Greece is "inefficient" to say the least.

stuckgear
15th May 2012, 12:06
yes it has hval, and in the current scheme, the uk is to throw £7 billion as part of the package, and that's not the lion's share.

but 7 billion (from my post in the Eu politics thread)...


lets just put that into perspective.. that's £1 for every man, woman and child on the face of the planet..

or

... the equivalent of the entire population of the world stumping up £1 for the first 7 billion, instead being shouldered by a tiny island with an economy up the proverbial creek and its own problems to face up to.




and that's only the first 7 billion..


(CNN) -- Eurozone finance ministers sealed a deal Tuesday morning for a second bailout for Greece, including €130 billion ($173 billion) in new financing.
The finance ministers from the 17 nations that use the euro, known as the Eurogroup, gave Greece the funding it needs to avoid a potential default next month

that's what, $24 usd for every man, woman and child on the face of this planet to prop up one country, greece, in the interim, which doesn't even account for the past or future bailouts. and don't forget italy, spain, portugal, ireland and france... they also need cash injections, (if they havnt already)..

lomapaseo
15th May 2012, 12:17
Can we find an example in history?

How was it solved?

I suspect that history will repeat itself.

AlpineSkier
15th May 2012, 12:17
@ZeBedie

They could just create electronic money

But wouldn't this be the simplest of all to detect ? Nobody outside need accept it ( although "smuggling" would be a possibility ) and if it just circulated within Greece - well it wouldn't be any different from an IOU/cigarette card, would it ?

stuckgear
15th May 2012, 12:24
Can we find an example in history?

How was it solved?

I suspect that history will repeat itself.


indeed, however, the brilliant minds, know that the situation has run out of road, like a runaway train on a track heading toward an abyss, but the new solution, throw money at extending the end of the track.

ZeBedie
15th May 2012, 12:34
@AlpineSkier

But wouldn't this be the simplest of all to detect ?

I'm saying they could do it overtly and in defiance of the EU. If their funny money mixed with the genuine euro in circulation and 'contaminated' it, then great for Greece but very damaging for the euro?

I'm getting into the realms of fantasy, but I can't see why the Greeks wouldn't do it?

hval
15th May 2012, 12:34
Stuckgear,

Then there is all money provided by the IMF on top of that, along with the banks.

€28 Billion from the IMF in March alone.

April 30, 2012 (http://www.imf.org/external/np/fin/tad/exporta.aspx?memberkey1=360&date1key=2012-04-30&category=EXC&dateyear=2012&exportal_flag=Y) 18,940,900,000
December 31, 2011 (http://www.imf.org/external/np/fin/tad/exporta.aspx?memberkey1=360&date1key=2012-04-30&category=EXC&dateyear=2011&exportal_flag=Y) 17,541,800,000
December 31, 2010 (http://www.imf.org/external/np/fin/tad/exporta.aspx?memberkey1=360&date1key=2012-04-30&category=EXC&dateyear=2010&exportal_flag=Y) 9,131,300,000

KAG
15th May 2012, 14:18
Breaking news
greece heading to new elections, venizelos says

onetrack
15th May 2012, 14:54
I don't think there's any example in history where a number of wealthy nations have poured so much money into a few poorer ones, in a great dream of an economic empire - held together by so little glue - and with nothing to show for it after 25 or 30 years, except worthless IOU's for the wealthy nations.

What has definitely never happened, is that nowhere in recorded history, have a few wealthy nations continued to throw vast amounts of good money after bad, in the pursuit of an idealogical dream.

One has to wonder at just how much more money the bankers and bureaucrats in Brussels will continue to throw into this pit, before they start to realise that they have no more money to throw in - and in addition, that the pits sides where they're standing, are collapsing as well!

Storminnorm
15th May 2012, 15:04
I was idly watching the telly the other day, as usual, and there was
an item on about the situation in Greece, and how Germany is doing
what it can to sort out the situation financially.
I was totally amazed to find out that the Germans have NOT had a pay
rise for 10 years. 10 Bl**dy Years!!!! There would be RIOTS here if that
was to apply to our Tanker Drivers etc....

Andy_S
15th May 2012, 15:06
They could just create electronic money - QE - without the permission of the official eurozone. What could Brussels do? It could destroy the currency, but what has Greece got to loose?

It’s an interesting idea. I suppose, following the same logic, Greece could create ‘electronic’ US Dollars or Swiss Francs, and while I’m sure there’s a fatal flaw in the plan I can’t quite work out what…… All I can think is that since no reputable or sane government, bank or business beyond Greece’s borders would conduct business or accept cross border payment in IGE’s (Imaginary Greek Euro’s) they would effectively become, in financial terms, a pariah state. And of course, within their own borders the idea only works insofar as no-one ever wants or needs to convert IGE’s to hard cash……

Tableview
15th May 2012, 16:03
The Euro experiment would also be perceived as a failure.
Err, you mean it isn't already?

The problem with Greece printing its own Euro notes is that they would be worthless as they wouldn't be backed by the ECB, nor by Greece's own central bank, since the latter has nothing with which to back it apart from the Elgin Marbles and they're in the UK!

Most of this article from today's Independent is drivel but it makes some valid points. It could have been entitled 'Beware of Greeks bearing Euros!'

Check the serial numbers on your euro notes or you could be left with "funny money", a leading British travel company warned yesterday in response to the deepening crisis involving the single currency.
DialAFlight told customers: "Although nobody is quite sure what will happen if Greece is ejected from the euro, we think it is possible that Greek euro notes would have to be used as a temporary currency."
The company urged people to check their euro currency to look for the country of origin: Greek notes begin with the letter "Y" and Spanish notes with the letter "V".
The process of any exit from the euro has been widely discussed in financial circles. Rumours abound of vaults full of "new drachmas" in Athens in preparation for such an eventuality. It is thought more likely, however, that notes held by Greek banks would be officially overstamped before being issued, making them legal tender only in Greece. The value of "Greek euros" would fall sharply against the "real" currency.
This is the process that accompanied the break-up of the Soviet Union; the transition from the rouble to individual currencies involved overprinting existing notes before new bills were printed. But DialAFlight is going beyond this scenario, by suggesting that euros currently in circulation could be suspect.
The managing director of DialAFlight, Peter Stephens, said the warning on its website did not arise from any official advice, but from speculation within the country. "We have been taking about what happens if Greek defaults," he added. "It looks increasingly obvious that Greece will have to bail out. Whether the rest of the eurozone would accept notes issued in Greece, I don't know."
Mr Stephens suggested that holidaymakers could either spend such notes locally or "take Greek euros to banks in another country and swap them there".



Prefix letters for Euro notes :
Z Belgium
Y Greece
X Germany
V Spain
U France
T Ireland
S Italy
P Netherlands
N Austria
M Portugal
L Finland
H Slovenia
G Cyprus
F Malta
E Slovakia
D Estonia

dazdaz1
15th May 2012, 16:22
Any country where one could not put loo paper down the loo/toilet and flush should be castrated from civilised society. I've experienced the peddle bin.

Daz

Jump Complete
15th May 2012, 16:29
Having just come back from a holiday in Rhodes, my fiancee and I were left wondering, when exactly (with the exception of the hospitality industries) work? Office hours appeared to be 11.00-13.00, with a two hour lunch break, three days a week.:rolleyes:

Storminnorm
15th May 2012, 16:35
At least I still have a Swiss Army knife that I found on the Apron
at Athens airport many years ago.

OFSO
15th May 2012, 16:42
I was totally amazed to find out that the Germans have NOT had a pay
rise for 10 years.

Cordinated Organisations pensioners had a pension REDUCTION last year. We are not talking about fat cats from Brussels either but - e.g. - the non-military blokes who used to work in NATO.

The town councillors at my local town hall here in Spain are getting expenses only, no wages, been like that for 12 months.

KAG
15th May 2012, 17:02
Greek President Proposes Government of Non-Politicians

Greece will hold new elections after President Karolos Papoulias failed to broker a governing coalition following an inconclusive May 6 vote, raising concern it may exit the euro. The currency and euro-area stocks fell.

“The country is once again headed to elections in a few days under adverse conditions,” Evangelos Venizelos, the leader of the socialist Pasok party said. “The Greek people told us they didn’t want elections but a coalition government, that they want Greece in the euro.”

Venizelos spoke after he and other party leaders met Papoulias today in Athens. A second election in less than two months threatens to extend the political gridlock that has left the country without a government since the last vote.

Greece’s political impasse means elections will probably be held next month, with polls showing that could boost the anti- bailout Syriza party to the top spot. The country may run out of money by early July.

The standoff has reignited concern the country will renege on pledges to cut spending as required by the terms of its two bailouts worth 240 billion euros ($307 billion) negotiated since May 2010, and, ultimately, leave the euro area.



‘Exit the Euro’
“A second vote means Greece is edging closer to the point where it’s inevitable they have to exit the euro,” Fredrik Erixon, head of the European Centre for International Political Economy in Brussels, said in a phone interview. “No other course of events is now likely.”

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Greece must elect a government that sticks to the terms of its international bailout in order to stay in the euro.

The announcement of new elections “doesn’t change the situation,” Schaeuble told reporters at a meeting of European Union finance ministers in Brussels today. “The program is agreed. We need a government that’s capable of making decisions.”

European stocks fell for a second day. Greece’s benchmark ASE Index dropped 3.6 percent to 562.88 as of 5:11 p.m. in Athens, its lowest level since November 1992. The ASE has fallen 18 percent since the May 6 vote. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 0.6 percent. The euro weakened 0.3 percent to $1.2786.





President Calls Meeting
The Greek presidency called a meeting of political party leaders for 1 p.m. in Athens tomorrow to form a caretaker government to steer the country to elections. Under the Greek constitution, if the meeting tomorrow can’t agree on a caretaker government, a mandate to form a temporary government of the widest possible consensus will be given to the Council of State or Supreme Court with the sole remit of dissolving Parliament and holding elections.

Elections must be held within four weeks at the latest meaning the vote would probably be on June 10 or June 17.

Greece must be part of the euro area and it would be a “catastrophe” for the nation to revert to its own currency, a move that threatens a run on banks, former Greek Prime Minister Costas Simitis said.

“There’s no question we must belong to the euro zone,” Simitis, who led Greece when it joined the euro in 2001, said at a forum in Beijing today. “The idea of coming back to the drachma is an idea that cannot function.”





Austerity has ‘Failed’
Europe must reexamine its policy of austerity and acknowledge it has failed, Alexis Tsipras, who heads the anti- bailout Syriza party, said yesterday in an interview broadcast on state-run Athens News Agency’s website.

“We ask that our country remain in the euro without the catastrophic policy of austerity and we have the solidarity of Europe,” Tsipras said. “I can’t guarantee that the euro area itself and the euro will be united and exist.”

Opinion polls conducted since the elections suggest that Syriza would come in first in a rerun, though short of an outright majority. Syriza would have 20.5 percent of the vote if elections were held now, according to a survey of 1,002 people by Rass SA for the newspaper Eleftheros Typos yesterday, the fourth poll to show the party with such a lead.

That survey showed support for New Democracy, which placed first in the May 6 election, at 19.4 percent and Pasok dropping to 11.8 percent from 13.2 percent. More than eight in 10 said they wanted Greece to remain in the euro area. The poll was conducted on May 10 and May 11. No margin of error was given.

KAG
15th May 2012, 17:05
As we speak the new french president Mr Francois Hollande airplane has just been struck by lightening.

He took off in order to meet Mrs Merkel and speak about Greece and Eurozone...

The airplane turned back to his departure airport...


---------------------------------------------------
EDIT:

Just heard that Mr Francois Hollande is not giving up: he is taking an other airplane and will meet Mrs Merkel tonight anyway...
Well, Eurozone deserves some determination one might think...

KAG
15th May 2012, 17:32
http://s1.lemde.fr/image/2012/05/15/644x322/1701724_3_cc2d_francois-hollande-embarque-dans-un-avion-a_6ff735670fbe83c5b0545410574fca97.jpg

vulcanised
15th May 2012, 17:58
Did a booming voice shout 'Bugger ! Missed' ?

chksix
15th May 2012, 18:27
Isn't that Kissinger to the left of the stairs?

hellsbrink
15th May 2012, 18:31
As we speak the new french president Mr Francois Hollande airplane has just been struck by lightening.

Did a booming voice shout 'Bugger ! Missed' ?

Naah, all they heard was Merkel saying "Do vot ve tell yo to do, or next time ve vill not be so lenient."

Fox3WheresMyBanana
15th May 2012, 18:39
The current impasse in Greece is due to the 'bonus 50 seats' for the most successful party. The anti-austerity lot will be the most successful party in the next election, gain the bonus seats and Greece will be out of the Euro by August.

If this is most people's thinking, then expect a run on the Greek banks by Thursday, which will mean Greece will be out of the Euro by end June.

Once one domino goes, investors will be taking (their money out of) the PIIS.

stuckgear
15th May 2012, 19:27
Once one domino goes, investors will be taking (their money out of) the PIIS.


And France too, so that would be PIFIS, or PFIIS or SPIFI. It would be a while before La Marseillaise is sung with any pride (by some). :hmm:

probes
15th May 2012, 20:15
I haven't followed the economy-stuff much, or maybe I wouldn't understand even if I had - but where's the logic when a country has no money and still declares: we do not want to spend less. :confused:

Fox3WheresMyBanana
15th May 2012, 20:53
To a certain extent, almost no countries "have any money". Only Macau, Taiwan and Liechtenstein have no external debt. A few others like China and Luxembourg are owed more than they owe. A few more, like Norway, would have no trouble paying off their debts and are currently running a surplus. Lastly, a few others like Canada could be self-sufficient if necessary (though with a reduced standard of living). The other 95% of countries are in it, it's just the depth that varies, and their likelihood of being able to get out of it. Think of the USA as deep in it but a very strong swimmer.

The problem is that the stable, well financed countries issue bonds at low rates precisely because they are stable, so banks and investors cannot make much money by either long or short term strategies.


p.s. SPIFI gets my vote!

lomapaseo
15th May 2012, 22:04
No doubt that after the exit from the EU, borders will be sealed, trade will fall and the domino effect will create a new zone without states.

The only question is how long?

I'm betting that there will be no war, but that countries like greece, spain and perhaps Italy will be owned by other than their citizens. The biggest risk is that the richest country will get richer and richer until such time that a great leveler called insurrection of the poorer masses brings us back to square one only with a lot less people to feed.

Worrals in the wilds
16th May 2012, 00:27
Any likelihood of another military dictatorship? They had one in the sixties, didn't they?

Davaar
16th May 2012, 01:10
Hi Worrals! Two quotations, without comment, from current reading:

1. For forms of government let fools contest;
Whate'er is best administered is best

Alexander Pope, An Essay on Man. Ep. iii. 1, 303

2. One is sometimes tempted to believe that the Greeks do not want a stable government

Leader from the "Manchester Guardian", 1931, quoted in "Malcolm Muggeridge -- A Life", 1980, p.71, by Ian Hunter, Thomas Nelson Publishers, Nashville, ISBN 0-8407-4084-0, in a selection from that paper's then pomposities. How it is now I know not.

Over to you!

Fox3WheresMyBanana
16th May 2012, 01:41
Pope
How much should we rely on the views on public life of a man who spent none of his life in it?

Muggeridge
Hammered religion all this life then converted to Christianity. I think it is easy to understand his desire for stability whatever the cost. Besides, as Michael Palin said after working with him: "He was just being Muggeridge, preferring to have a very strong contrary opinion as opposed to none at all."

KAG
16th May 2012, 03:15
Let's finish the little story with the Falcon 7X struck by lightening last night:

Finally Mr Hollande met Mrs Merkel and spoke about Greece.
It was in the french news paper, I don't believe you need much translation as the vocabulary used here has been adopted by english a long time ago:

Merkel et Hollande : harmonie sur la Grèce, moins sur la croissance

http://s2.lemde.fr/image/2012/05/15/540x270/1701809_3_a99c_le-president-francais-qui-souhaite-avec-la_17fa652c05f208b31bd8a0a439404ba8.jpg

Au cours d'une conférence de presse durant la visite de François Hollande à Berlin, la chancelière allemande, Angela Merkel, et le président français ont eu à cœur, mardi 15 mai, d'afficher leur convergence de vues sur la crise grecque.

"Nous voulons que la Grèce reste dans la zone euro", a ainsi déclaré Mme Merkel. "Je souhaite, comme Mme Merkel, que la Grèce reste dans la zone euro", a renchéri M. Hollande.

Reste means stay.

"We want Greece to stay in Eurozone" both Mrs Merkel and Mr Hollande announced.

hellsbrink
16th May 2012, 05:00
of course they do, KAG, anything else means the failure that was talked of from the conception of the Euro

KAG
16th May 2012, 05:26
Hellsbrink: not wrong.

On bloomberg:

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande said they would consider measures to spur economic growth in Greece as long as voters there committed to the austerity demanded to stay in the euro.

Requests for measures to bolster growth will be “considered” and the European Union may also “approach Greece with proposals,” Merkel said late yesterday at a joint press conference with Hollande during his first official visit to Berlin. “Greece can stay in the euro area,” and “Greek citizens will be voting on exactly that.”

Their encounter, the first meeting between the chiefs of Europe’s two biggest economies, came after Greece announced a return to the ballot box following the collapse of talks on forming a government. The euro and stocks fell as investors speculated that Greece may drop out of the single currency more than two years after its budget-deficit blowout triggered a financial crisis across Europe that continues to rage.

Hollande saw Merkel less than 12 hours after being sworn in as president and an arrival that was delayed by a lighting strike on his plane from Paris. With Greece in its fifth year of recession, the French Socialist returned to a theme he pressed throughout his election campaign, saying policy makers must offer the prospect of something more than austerity.

“I’ll respect the vote of the Greeks whatever it is,” Hollande said. “Yet my responsibility is to give Greece a signal. I see the suffering and challenges that the Greeks feel. The Greeks need to know we’ll come with growth measures that will allow them to stay in the euro zone.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/image/iHUek7Aja15s.jpg

stuckgear
16th May 2012, 06:34
"We want Greece to stay in Eurozone" both Mrs Merkel and Mr Hollande announced.


what you want, and what you can afford are two different things.

Of course having what is wanted but not what can be paid for is what got the EU states into the structural debt problems to start with.

So more debt to pay down more debt. ! brilliant!

Frau Merkel and Monsieur Hollande can't afford to keep Greece in the Eurozone, also they cant afford for it to leave either.

stuckgear
16th May 2012, 08:35
Latest

08.20 Another major upset is the news that Greeks are pulling their euros from the country's banks, afraid of their savings being rapidly devalued if the country does leave the single currency.

Central bank head George Provopoulos told President Karolos Papoulias that savers withdrew at least €700m on Monday.

"Mr Provopoulos told me there was no panic, but there was great fear that could develop into a panic," the minutes of a meeting with political party leaders quote the president as saying.

"Withdrawals and outflows by 4:00 pm when I called him exceeded €600m and reached €700m," the President said. "He expects total outflows of about €800m."

There are no signs of a full-on run on the banks yet, no queues outside banks in Athens or anything like that, but the situation is being closely watched...
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01929/Greece__Drachma_1929829c.jpg

08.10 What has hit sentiment so hard this morning?
Well, comments from IMF boss Christine Lagarde that she is “technically prepared for anything” (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9268573/Global-lenders-face-killer-losses-on-Greek-debt.html)and that the utmost effort must be made to ensure any Greek exit is orderly seem to have spooked investors.
Ms Lagarde has been a champion of Greece staying in the single currency thoughout the last two years of bailout negotiations. She must also be wondering whether her oft-used claim that the IMF has never lost money on any of its loans will hold good in the case of Greece...

AlpineSkier
16th May 2012, 08:57
I've modified Hollande's words to reflect what I am convinced will be much nearer the truth


. The Greeks need to know we’ll talk at length and issue press communiques about proposed growth measures that will allow them to stay in the euro zone.”

stuckgear
16th May 2012, 09:01
Alpine Skier..


:D:D:D

stuckgear
16th May 2012, 09:05
Hollande saw Merkel less than 12 hours after being sworn in as president and an arrival that was delayed by a lighting strike on his plane from Paris. With Greece in its fifth year of recession, the French Socialist returned to a theme he pressed throughout his election campaign, saying policy makers must offer the prospect of something more than austerity.

“I’ll respect the vote of the Greeks whatever it is,” Hollande said. “Yet my responsibility is to give Greece a signal. I see the suffering and challenges that the Greeks feel. The Greeks need to know we’ll come with growth measures that will allow them to stay in the euro zone.”


so, within 12 hours of taking office, the most important thing to do is go see Merkel.

it kind of gives you the understanding of where the control actually is and the risk that greece plays to the french economy !

hmmmmmmmm.

so in brief, france is screwed with greek debt and needs merkel to shell out for the greeks to prevent france going down the tubes if the greeks default or exit.

Tableview
16th May 2012, 09:16
I've just enjoyed a cup of Greek coffee and a lovely chat with a friend of mine who is of Greek/South African origin.

He said : "Look at it this way, Greece has contributed enormously over the centuries to world civilisation and culture. Now it's payback time."

I'm not sure I agree but it's a lovely sentiment (and he paid for my breakfast!)

OFSO
16th May 2012, 10:23
he paid for my breakfast

In drachma ?

:)

stuckgear
16th May 2012, 10:59
so, within 12 hours of taking office, the most important thing to do is go see Merkel.

it kind of gives you the understanding of where the control actually is and the risk that greece plays to the french economy !

hmmmmmmmm.

so in brief, france is screwed with greek debt and needs merkel to shell out for the greeks to prevent france going down the tubes if the greeks default or exit.

Appetiser cost of Greek exit is (http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100017148/appetiser-cost-of-greek-exit-is-e155bn-for-germany-france-trillions-for-meat-course/)


Eric Dor's team at the IESEG School of Management in Lille has put together a table on the direct costs to Germany and France if Greece is pushed out of the euro.

These assume that relations between Europe and Greece break down in acrimony, with a full-fledged "stuff-you" default on euro liabilities. It assumes a drachma devaluation of 50pc

They conclude:
The total losses could reach €66.4bn for France and €89.8bn for Germany. These are upper bounds, but even in the case of a partial default, the losses would be huge.

Assuming that the new national currency would depreciate by 50 per cent against the euro, which is realistic, the losses for French banks would reach €19.8bn. They would reach €4.5bn for German banks.


actions speak louder than platitudes !

Tableview
16th May 2012, 11:07
It's my fault that the Euro has dropped further. I had to buy quite a large quantity and decided to do it yesterday on the basis that at almost 1.25 to sterling it was a fat lot better than it would have been a few months ago. Anyway if it drops more I'll buy more ...... so I can't lose unless it goes T U!

KAG
16th May 2012, 11:22
200 voters already!

pprune should make some business and sell opinion polls...
Great contribution from the ppruners here.

It seems, after I read some of the posts, that many voted "yes" because that's what they believe (or wish) to be the best option.

I remind you that the question is in fact much more simple:
Do you actually see Greece out of Eurozone this year?

Storminnorm
16th May 2012, 11:34
Kicking the Greeks out of the Euro would just be the start of it all.
You would then have to kick out all the others that are finding the
situation "tense" in a Fiscal sense.
eg, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, etc, etc.

OFSO
16th May 2012, 12:56
We just have to rename the "EURO" the "KAG".

The optimism will keep it afloat.

(Sorry KAG, couldn't resist a joke at the expensise of your optimistic views, which are a refreshing change from the pessimism expressed here, even if it's more likely to be true)

Fox3WheresMyBanana
16th May 2012, 12:57
Well KAG, my post #74 from yesterday was right about the run on the banks. Greece will be out of the Euro when the bills become due, which I think is sometime towards the end of June.

dead_pan
16th May 2012, 13:06
Do you actually see Greece out of Eurozone this year?

Thats why I voted no. I really can't see it happening anytime soon - the EU, ECB, IMF etc have plenty more tricks up their sleeves. They can potentially spin this out for years.

The majority of Greeks want in, the powers in Brussels, Frankfurt, Berlin etc want them in. Some elements of the financial markets are trying to force them out, but this is countered by some pretty weighty players whose very survival depends on Greece staying in.

dead_pan
16th May 2012, 13:22
200 voters already!

Its a shame you can't see a list of voters and how they voted. We could bump the thread up just before New Year and award those who were correct full 'I told you so' bragging rights.

Andy_S
16th May 2012, 13:27
the EU, ECB, IMF etc have plenty more tricks up their sleeves. They can potentially spin this out for years.

Possibly, but in the meantime someone needs to pay the bills. So who's stumping up the cash? I think Angela Merkel's wriggle room on this one is limited.

AlpineSkier
16th May 2012, 14:00
Greece remains a middle income country with a substantial productive sector that could recapture the domestic market once imports became more expensive. There is plenty of productive potential in Greece, evidenced by the technological component of its exports


Quote in The Guardian by Costas Lapavitsas, professor of economics, SOAS, University of London.

Does this show that all Greeks are delusional or that they have a thriving (technological ??)manufacturing sector that is kept very quiet ?

I'm only aware of shipping services, cheese, olives, dips and some dodgy alcohols as exports. Can anyone tell me about significant exports that do not fall in these fields, particularly the technological ones ( or is this the cement to Bulgaria that used to be big ?) ?

lomapaseo
16th May 2012, 14:15
Assuming that the Greeks will go to a seriously devalued currency and descend into an impovershed nation, what would be a good investment value to send money into that country that will pay back and when should I invest?

Fox3WheresMyBanana
16th May 2012, 14:21
Go study Greek economic history; they have gone into default about 5 times before. This is routine stuff for them. Invest in about 5 years I would guess.

dead_pan
16th May 2012, 14:34
Can anyone tell me about significant exports that do not fall in these fields, particularly the technological ones ( or is this the cement to Bulgaria that used to be big ?) ?There's quite a big pharma sector in Greece. Not sure what they make.

Their economy is by no means a basket case. Tourism is a big money earner of course.

Like other Med countries they receive sizeable remittances from their citizens living outside the country. They have a large diaspora in Europe in beyond, a fair number of whom send money home to mama every month, or own properties in the country etc.

Tableview
16th May 2012, 15:03
.......... and they would have muddled on quite happily as they have done for centuries if that bunch if pr1cks in the city of the Pissing Mannekin hadn't interfered.

Juzir
16th May 2012, 15:13
Hi guys,

I know that this post belong to "training"-section but I thought that because of the topic and the people talking about it (I assume that at least some of you are involved in flying at some level) this would be a good channel for my question.

I've planned going to Egnatia Aviation in June, for starting my 0-fATPL training. Well, it seems that greek politicians are not going to set anything up and there's now coming new elections on June 17th.

If Greece will fall out from euro, would it be still considerable choice for me? The economical chaos would be, well, chaotic. I'm not sure how smart it would be to start training there, in middle of crisis. What you guys think? My plan B is to apply on Intercockpit in Germany if inevitable happens and I have to change the school :rolleyes:

onetrack
16th May 2012, 15:51
I most certainly see the exit of Greece from the EU this calendar year, and I voted accordingly. The thing is, when it comes, it will hit like lightning out of a blue sky.

No-one will get any warning, and most certainly not the Greeks. The banks will suddenly close without warning, and people will be attacking banks and bankers in an attempt to get their life savings out.
They won't be able to. Their savings will be gone.
The country will go into a "lockdown mode" for a few days and the military will be given free rein to keep public order.

The Govt will install tight border security to prevent any currency (cash in notes, in any form) from being smuggled out.
The Govt will hastily recall all Greek Euros and overstamp the notes with a Drachma overstamp.
The Govt will then try to set an exchange value for the New Drachma - but whether anyone accepts the New Drachmas outside Greece would be extremely doubtful - certainly not for an extended period, anyway.
The currency will be devalued to the extent that probably a 100 Drachma Greek note, would only be equivalent to one Euro - representing the true value of Greek assets, and the ability of Greece to repay debt.

The country would not be able to incur any new overseas borrowings without horrendous interest rates. Some shrewd Chinese bankers would probably step in with loans - provided they were given major Greek assets, as collateral.
Thus the Chinese would end up as majority owners of Greece (and all its assets), by subtle means.

The French and Germans would probably then wished they'd thought of that scheme, instead of just lending money to a Greek Govt with no real collateral as security for their Euro loans.

Tableview
16th May 2012, 16:04
the military will be given free rein to keep public order.
Which translates to 'there will be blood'. Exactly that the 'Union' was meant to avoid.

AlpineSkier
16th May 2012, 17:21
The French and Germans would probably then wished they'd thought of that scheme, instead of just lending money to a Greek Govt with no real collateral as security for their Euro loans

Well The Finns certainly thought of it and asked for it too in late 2011. Don't remember the final outcome but either the Commission or The Germans objected that this would disadvantage the other lenders or alternatively kill that particular loan as the Greeks didn't have enough security for all.

Would also have made the Brussels sleight-of-hand - where they just create assets ( and debts ) and shuffle them around to further their power games - much more difficult if there had to be real security to back up their little machinations.

flying lid
16th May 2012, 17:36
I think you will find most of the big money departed long ago. Been happening for well over a year. As usual the top 1% (Bankers, Politicians, the "Elite") will be little affected, it's the "poor" 99% who will suffer.

It's a whole bag of shit, which will affect us all one way or another.

And the Juggernaut of Globalisation rolls on.

Lid

probes
16th May 2012, 18:13
OK, but what if the voters realise what youknowwhat they're in and don't vote for the... whatsthenameof the party that didn't even join the discussions?

what you want, and what you can afford are two different things.

P.S some of my friends who have been in Greece have said the 'common people' are ok and living as usual outside Athens.
That was a month ago, though.

AlpineSkier
16th May 2012, 18:31
@JUZIR

I've planned going to Egnatia Aviation in June, for starting my 0-fATPL training. Well, it seems that greek politicians are not going to set anything up and there's now coming new elections on June 17th.


If you are seriously asking if you should pay large sums of money to a Greek outfit in the current circumstances, then I think you need to re-think becoming a pilot as your risk-assessment capacity seems seriously deficient IMO.

With the existing situation and in a country like Greece I think all kinds of totally improbable scenarios could happen and shut down otherwise healthy organisations - especially in an area like aviation which presumably has to all kinds of support services - fire/ambulance etc. Might get all the fuel-tanker drivers going on strike again

Not a flyer, just interested in politics and economics.

EDIT

If there are otherwise very good reasons to go there, suppose you could always propose paying them weekly by credit-card which would limit your financial risk but presumably you couldn't just hop across to Germany and start the alternative course in just a couple of days.

G&T ice n slice
16th May 2012, 18:49
sheesh

see "another thread" item 906 (i think) date 12th feb 2012
Only and really truly awful posibility for Greece is to

(a) declare martial law at midnight on friday
(b) seal off & shut down all the banks & install military personel in all newspapers, radio & TV stations, & garrison all government offices with troops. Seal of all ports & airports with troops, shut down all border crossings.
(c) declare that the Euro is no longer the Greek currency & is replaced by the drachma
(d) that all bank deposits are converted from Euro to Drachma at the euro joing-rate of 340.750 Dr. = 1 Euro.
(e) that all liabilities to banks are also coverted to Drachma at the same rate
(f) that all government liabilities are converted to Dr. at the same rate
(g) that all salaries, outstanding unpaid invoices etc etc are now denominated in Dr converted at the euro-joing rate.
(h) that no greek citizen may hold foreign currency, which must be surrendered at a rate equivalent to the DR-Euro joining rate.
(i) re-open the banks on the 2nd monday (i.e. keep them all shut & protected for 1 working week.
(j) watch the drachma drop in value from 340.75 to closer to 34,075 to the euro before recovering to about 20,000
(k) pay off all outstanding greek government debt (now Dr denominated debt) by converting a small amount of the foreign-currency & gold holdings of the greek central bank.

dead_pan
16th May 2012, 18:59
The Govt will hastily recall all Greek Euros and overstamp the notes with a Drachma overstamp.

One certainly has a vivid imagination. Countries default all the time without such dramatic consequences. If it ever comes to this I'm sure the ever imaginative Greek people will quickly pick themselves up and move on, much like the Icelanders.

Incidentally I can't see why a default will necessarily result in Greece having to drop the Euro. Sure, they will remain shut out from sovereign bond markets but the ECB will continue to bankroll them via the back-door.

probes
16th May 2012, 19:00
holding an edge like no other and standing up to eight years of constant use and promising to last another hundred years.
so that's you who sealed it... how on Earth is their economy going to recover if the things last for centuries?? :E

flying lid
16th May 2012, 20:29
Rumours that Greece banks are allowing only 50 euro withdrawal limit at ATM's.

'Grexit': Are Greece's euro fears causing a $1-billion bank run? - latimes.com (http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-greece-banks-20120516,0,2374245.story)

The Hun have commenced operations

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The European Central Bank has stopped monetary policy operations with some Greek banks as they have not been successfully recapitalized, euro zone central bank sources said on Wednesday

News Headlines (http://www.cnbc.com/id/47447292)

Greek President Told Banks Anxious as Deposits Pulled - Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-15/greek-president-told-banks-anxious-as-deposits-pulled.html)

I'll give Greece a week or two. I'm not celebrating, as the fall out from all this will be paid by you, me, our children, our grandchildren, our great grandchildren -------------.

Lid

AlpineSkier
16th May 2012, 20:47
The risk of a run on Greek banks is “a very serious problem,” Yannis Ioannides, professor of economics at Tufts University in Massachusetts, told Bloomberg Television. He said the European Central Bank needs to guarantee deposits held by the region’s lenders to guard against contagion. “That’s the only way to kill a bank run: not words but deeds

This is a quote from Mr Lid's Bloomberg link above.

I don't honestly know how much money this could potentially cost but I'm guessing that the Greek banks have been flipping any deposits several times over to bring in as much money as possible.

Just how many more black holes are there that must be filled ( by Other Peoples Money ) before this failed state is declared a total wreck and either abandoned or sunk ?

Juzir
16th May 2012, 21:06
@ AlpineSkier

Don't worry mate, my money is safe and no, I haven't pay anything yet. Just came here to ask people's views about possible changes of aviation industry and training in Greece. You're right, there are too many line of industries which could cause serious damage and affect negatively to my progress.

And it isn't just about aviation, I don't want to live few years with a thumb up in my ass worrying about local economical things when I really should concentrate in studying.

stuckgear
16th May 2012, 21:28
roll, pitch, yaw...

Debt crisis: Greek euro exit looms closer as banks crumble - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9270884/Debt-crisis-Greek-euro-exit-looms-closer-as-banks-crumble.html)

Economists warned that the Greek financial system could crumble within weeks or days unless the European Central Bank steps up support.

President Karolos Papoulias told party leaders that banks had lost €700m in withdrawals on Monday alone as citizens rush to pre-empt capital controls and a much-feared return to the Drachma.

He cited central bank warnings that "great fear" might soon escalate to panic. The leaked details lend credence to claims that capital flight by both savers and firms have reached €4bn a week since the triumph of anti-bailout parties on May 6.

Steen Jakobsen from Danske Bank said outflows are becoming unstoppable, not helped by open talk in EU circles of `technical’ plans for Greek withdrawal.

afhelipilot
17th May 2012, 09:24
No, not this year.

I do not know anything about Greece, but following the recent news perhaps Greece might live. Looking at a situation further on their citizens had been already cut off from the various benefits out of their country.

OFSO
17th May 2012, 10:28
I do not know anything about Greece

Not a good basis on which to base an opinion, then

following the recent news

How often do I have to state it: the media are NOT in business to tell the truth, the media are in business to stay in business. Telling a happy story, more often a sad one, and best of all a disasterous one, sells the newspaper/magazine/channel.

The only opinions worth considering are the markets: the bourses and the exchange rates because they average out what thousands of professionals think.

onetrack
17th May 2012, 11:20
G&T ice n slice - I don't read every single post on PRRUNE, so I'm afraid I didn't come across your post. As a result, the appearance of "plagiarism" was completely unintentional.

It's interesting to note that the poll voting is hanging fairly steady around 84%, "in favour of". That's a serious majority, by anyones measure.
It appears that there's also a general acceptance appearing in the EU, amongst the traders, and amongst the bankers, that Greece will renege on their debt and depart the Union - despite every last-ditch effort to avoid this.

I would expect the current round of crisis meetings in Brussels will be centred around precisely what damage-control mode method it will be best to indulge in.
This will no doubt result in many soothing noises coming from that area, that the Union can still function as planned, without Greece. :suspect:

Fox3WheresMyBanana
17th May 2012, 11:38
Good points OFSO

To be more precise, most of the media are in the advertising business, in that they will do whatever it takes to sell more advertising, as this is the main source of their profits. The media wants you wound up, under-confident, and a little bit scared. That way you buy more stuff.

The markets are not a good predictor of the future however. You will not spot sudden crashes by watching the market trends. Partly because not all investors are good, partly because their economic models are not suited for spotting critical events, partly because the information fed into the models may be wrong (or more commonly, a pack of lies) and partly because world events are difficult to predict, such as the Arab Spring.

Slasher
17th May 2012, 11:53
Speaking of the mass media, I saw a report recently that the
Greek Communist Party demonstrating in Athena for Greece
to leave the EU. While all good commies in the West will take
advantage of any opportunity presented during any time of
chaos, nonetheless it appears to me they have the right idea.

Leave the EU and create a Democratic Peoples Republic. The
billions of Euro lost becomes the headache of the moronic EU
"leaders" who approved the entry of Greece 13 odd years ago,
the country becomes another NK - offering pita, salads, and
views of ancient rockpiles to attract the imperial tourists, and
virtually stays in the level of poo they've been used to for the
next 50 years.

AlpineSkier
17th May 2012, 12:14
Hey Slash


and
virtually stays in the level of poo they've been used to for the
next 50 years.

Unfortunately they have now been introduced to a lifestyle of dramatically enriched EC-subsidised poo which is so much warmer and more nourishing and they are loath to give it up.

tony draper
17th May 2012, 12:17
They could ask Putin to take them into the Russian Federation.:uhoh:

Slasher
17th May 2012, 12:24
Drapes just answered your comment Alpine. Pute will sort out
their nonsense pronto, and create a higher level of poo under
a RF treaty. All that'll be needed then is a Greek comrade Kim
Jong XX who will get bitch-slapped by the Kremlin now and
then.

dead_pan
17th May 2012, 13:49
I recall that Putin did offer help to Iceland in their hour of need a few years back. They politely declined.

Re the media, it is hard to find truly balanced reporting nowadays. Even the once reliable BBC is ever more prone to sensationalist reporting. I often find the best plan is to avoid any TV news and instead scan a cross-section of online news sites, and even then treat any story they are running re the Eurozone with a healthy dose of scepticism.

lomapaseo
17th May 2012, 15:07
Re the media, it is hard to find truly balanced reporting nowadays. Even the once reliable BBC is ever more prone to sensationalist reporting. I often find the best plan is to avoid any TV news and instead scan a cross-section of online news sites, and even then treat any story they are running re the Eurozone with a healthy dose of scepticism.

I read PPRuNe for balanced viewpoints by the unbalanced

KAG
17th May 2012, 15:59
Paul Krugman, Noble Prize, said May 13th, 2012:

Greek euro exit, very possibly next month.

Oracle or serious economist?
Time will tell, and fast...

Eurodämmerung - NYTimes.com (http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/13/eurodammerung-2/)

Groundbased
18th May 2012, 06:33
It seems the cash outflows from the banking system may mean it is now beyond the control of the politicos, wherever they are from.

It seems possible that we may not even get to the 13th of June. On a smaller scale, once queues had formed outside Northern Rock branches it was nationalised within 24 hours.

Exascot
18th May 2012, 06:37
Looks as if the Spi... sorry, the Spanish are taking the pressure off us. Just relocated funds held in Greece now our funds in the RBS (Santander) in the UK are a worry. Actually I see that you are protected for up to £85,000.

Latest polls here (if you believe them) indicate that we may be OK with a possible Pasok and New Democracy coalition outcome after the elections 17th June.

mixture
18th May 2012, 07:11
Partly because not all investors are good

You do realise that the actions of individual investors on the markets no longer rules the roost these days don't you ?

The volume of trades submitted on the world's markets by automated algorithmic trading is said to be in the region of min. 70% of volume. Individual investors only account for around max. 15% of market volume, the remaining 15% are institutional trades and hedge funds.

Therefore, watching the markets on a short-term basis these days is a mugs game because you are merely trying to second guess why a bunch of computers traded the way they did. The algorithms being programmed by clever mathematicians rather than people with any great in-depth knowledge or experience of the stockmarket (I've met one or two... they're weird !)

stuckgear
18th May 2012, 10:11
Greek euro exit: what the economists say - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9273786/Greek-euro-exit-what-the-economists-say.html)


Most forecasters brave enough to predict the likelihood of a eurozone break-up say the chance of a "Grexit" is now between 50pc and 75pc. Here's what some economists have been saying over the past week.

dead_pan
18th May 2012, 10:29
Anyone catch Robert Peston's programme on the BBC yesterday? Check it out on iPlayer if you didn't. There was some intriguing commentary on the gestation of the Euro, also the UK's deep reservations on the venture (those Tory Euroseptics will feel vindicated). Also noteworthy was the discussion about the ECB's recent LTRO activity - another example of a back-door funding for sovereigns. I'm always amazed when these central bankers say that it is up to the banks to decide how they use the money they borrow from them. Surely its not beyond the wit of man to require banks to lend at least a proportion to worthy businesses, rather than pee it up the wall on sovereign bonds, speculation etc.

tony draper
18th May 2012, 10:53
Yer watched it,eye opening it was ,a lot of shify eyed EU scumbags shuffling uncomfortably in their seats whilst being interviewed, the entire commision should be looking at the world from behind bars today for their insane lust to create a micky mouse US of E and some of the rat bastards still advocating it.
:suspect:

Tableview
18th May 2012, 10:55
Yer watched it,eye opening it was ,a lot of shify eyed EU scumbags shuffling uncomfortably in their seats whilst being interviewed, the entire commision should be looking at the world from behind bars today for their insane lust to create a micky mouse US of E and some of the rat bastards still advocating it.

So I take it you're not in favour of it, Tony!

Couldn't have put it better meself!

corsair
18th May 2012, 11:21
Would never have been called a Euroskeptic, more a lukewarm Euromaybe or just neutral. I have to say I'm drifting further into the Euroskepetic camp by the day. Here in Ireland we have to vote on the austerity treaty, sorry fiscal treaty at the end of the month. I'm voting no, this is despite relentless propaganda from the government that we will get no more bailout money if we vote no. This is despite them telling us we will be going back to the markets next year and won't need any more bailouts. Really I don't know which lie to believe anymore.:confused: This government when elected promised to tell the truth unlike previous governments. Inevitably that was the first lie.

So I find myself on the same side as Sinn Fein and other assorted looney left parties.

The irony is that as we go to vote on the treaty, they're already about to change it. It's becoming farcical.

But overall it's becoming clearer that the whole greater EU experiment is failing, particularly the whole United States of Europe idea, with tax harmonisation and one currency et al.

The EU was a good idea when it remained a trading block of nations. It worked brilliantly when it was all that. This attempt into broadening it into a something bigger is a mistake.

Greece should hever have entered the Euro and it certainly looks like it's about to bring it down. Perhaps it shouldn't even be in the EU.

stuckgear
18th May 2012, 11:28
corsair, be careful on claiming to be a eurosceptique, you have the resident blue flag waver accusing you of hating the EU (even though you are a EU member state and Eurozone member)

though equally your citation of Greece could equally be levied at Ireland, as well as Italy, Spain, Portugal and well it may be turn out, France too !

OFSO
18th May 2012, 11:28
Greece should hever have entered the Euro and it certainly looks like it's about to bring it down. Perhaps it shouldn't even be in the EU.

Greece should have remained the lazy detached paradise attached the the lower end of Europe with wonderful weather, super al-fresco meals in the open, excellent red wine, good music, and friendly people (outside of Athens that is) that it was when I visited it in the 1970's and 1980's.

Like most people I have fond memories of Greece and the Greeks and resent what the woman with a face like a three-day-old soufflé and the ex grining jackanapes have done to it in the name of the euro. And please, remember who fiddled the figures in the first place.

probes
18th May 2012, 12:11
remember who fiddled the figures in the first place
who did? (again, pardon me ignorance :sad:).

Fox3WheresMyBanana
18th May 2012, 12:21
Well, the Greeks did at the behest of the Eurocrats, who then turned a blind eye, and nobody else complained, so...

ALL of them!

911slf
18th May 2012, 14:37
Arguably, modern Greece has yet to come into existence as a viable, stable state.

It has existed as a collection of city states from 3000 years back, but the borders of modern Greece have existed in their present form for less than a century, during which time it has experienced a civil war and a period of military government.

Give them another thousand years and they might get their act together. I admire their culture and like the Greeks I have met, but I would no more trust them to run an economy than [insert your favourite artist here]

Andy_S
18th May 2012, 15:28
You could almost say the same about Europe as a whole.

Watching Robert Peston’s documentary on the BBC yesterday, it occurred to me that there’s no fundamental reason why we couldn’t have political union in Europe. It’s only an issue of timing. Given a few hundred years or so the electorate of the member states may eventually feel first and foremost like Europeans and accept the idea of shared sovereignty. Unfortunately, through hubris, arrogance and overambition, the European establishment has decided that the process should be completed in little more than a generation whether we’re ready or not, and have plotted, bribed, bullied and lied with almost fascistic zeal in pursuit of that aim.

Does anyone think that any of the smug, arrogant perps will have the courage to take responsibility?

Storminnorm
18th May 2012, 16:07
POLITICAL UNION IN EUROPE ???

That would make WW 1 and WW 2 rather pointless wouldn't it??

OFSO
18th May 2012, 17:12
I have just returned home from a delightful birthday lunch for friends of ours. A lot of people at the restaurant, predominantly German pensioners but other nationalities and workers as well.

I floated the idea - when we'd all had enough wine - of "how to save the euro". Every one there, no exceptions, said the only hope of keeping the euro going was for Greece to leave the monetary union, and perhaps later, Spain as well. And maybe Portugal. And Italy, later.

Remember, this is ordinary people; no politicians, no economists, no "leaders", nobody with "vested interests". Just plain folk who are dealing with life in the eurozone on a day-to-day basis-

stuckgear
19th May 2012, 16:40
Europe admits Greece exit preparation - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9276204/Europe-admits-Greece-exit-preparation.html)

Brussels is preparing plans for Greece to quit the euro, a senior official has revealed, as analysts warned that the country’s exit would cost European taxpayers at least €225bn (£180bn).


and again, to put that figure into perspective, that's the equivalent £26 for every man, woman and child on the planet.

dazdaz1
19th May 2012, 16:57
One must take in to account political ties with other counties in the area. For example, if Turkey was attacked from the rear (Armenia) would Greece help?

Daz

Fox3WheresMyBanana
19th May 2012, 17:05
Not everyone on the planet is a European taxpayer. Some of us are no longer European taxpayers because we saw this coming a mile off...

..and not many children pay significant taxes.

So those of you who still pay European taxes are in it for a lot more than 26 quid. My sympathies.

hellsbrink
19th May 2012, 17:14
Tell me about it, Fox3, I reckon it's time to start stockpiling

Fox3WheresMyBanana
19th May 2012, 17:27
Dilbert.com - The Official Dilbert Website with Scott Adams' color strips, Dilbert animation, mashups and more! (http://www.dilbert.com/fast/2011-07-31/)

http://www.dilbert.com/dyn/str_strip/000000000/00000000/0000000/100000/20000/6000/100/126195/126195.strip.print.gif

dead_pan
19th May 2012, 17:37
Brussels is preparing plans for Greece to quit the euro, a senior official has revealed, as analysts warned that the country’s exit would cost European taxpayers at least €225bn (£180bn).


Is that all?? It seems like an absolute bargain compared to some of the numbers which have been bandied around of late. Make's one wonder what all the fuss is about - just get on and do it.

Dedalus
19th May 2012, 17:45
I follow this forum for years and I never expected that my first post in the pprune forum would be on politics rather than aviation. However, as a Greek living in Greece, I am obliged to mention few things on this heated topic.

As you may know there must be more than one factor to contribute to an aviation accident. In our case, one factor is the PIIGS (Greece particularly since I am Greek, others may speak for their country) and the other is the Eurozone itself.

Greece

Sociologists and psychologists tend to say: "Pay attention to the childhood in order to find the seeds of the success or failure of a particular individual or social trend". The same logic can be applied to countries as well.

Not all countries share the same culture, especially in the EU. In case of Greece there are some unique cultural features that are shaped partly due to the enormous historical background and partly due to geography. To make a long story short, the average Greek is -in economic terms- left oriented because he is highly socialized. Greeks tend to gather together, dance together (almost all greek dances are hand held) and share things together. A Greek must always buy the breakfast, dinner, you name it of the others in the same table, otherwise he is offended. Hardly you'll find situations where Greeks share the bill. Similarly reasoning, there are few psychologists or shrinks in Greece. Nobody needs them due to socializing. Coupled this cultural fact with the greek geography and the mediterranean weather and you'll have an idea of how the average Greek views economics on a broader way.

Secondly, we have the political and historical aspects of this tale. After the end of WW2 when most european countries tried to settle themselves down, a civil war started in Greece between communists and nationalists. This war devestated the country and to some extend set the rythm for the future Cold War between the USSR and the USA. At the end, the nationalists won the war and the communists were marginalized and stigmatized in the country. During the late 60's, when the Cold War was at its peak, Greece's northen neighbours were all in the Communist Block. This situation forced the US to pressure Greece to crack every communist in the country, since there was fear that a leftist greek government might rise to power. This led to a US sponsored military coup that chase all communists and further marginalized them.

After the fall of the dictatorship in 1974, a newly formed socialist party (PASOK) won the elections whith his leader Andreas Papandreou promised to restore the unity of the greek society. That is to bring back to the society the marginalized communists. He managed to do that by hiring almost all of them to the public sector, thus giving them a permament job and a hope for the future. Whilst Papandreou did a great job in terms of erasing the memories of the past, he damaged the economy badly. His ambitious plan, demanded lots of subsidies to state owned companies and the public debt was increasing year by year. What was started with good intentions had been transformed into a vicious cycle of interdepedence. The political parties needed those public sector voters and the voters wanted those parties that promised them a secure job.

As for the tax evading culture of the average Greek, this can be traced back in the medieval history. During the times of the Byzantine Empire first and the Ottoman empire later, the Greeks were the wealthiest citizens of both empires. They owned the biggest merchant fleets and the biggest farms and land. This situation forced the then governments to highly tax them, even the poor ones. Since every action brings counteraction, year by year this led to the birth and formation of a tax evading culture that is persistant even today. The average Greek sees every state as a coercive beast that wants to control his freedom.

I will make a pause here about Greece and perhaps I will come in details later on if someone wants to learn more.


Eurozone

The second factor that contributed to this "aviation" accident is eurozone itself. Whilst it started with good intentions it transformed itself into a bureaucratic beast in Brussels. The eurozone experiment is failing partly because it never became a United States of Europe and partly because there isnt any surplus redistribution system within the EU. To give you an example I will compare the situation in Greece before and after the euro.

Before the euro currency, Greece had a stable industry and a relative competitive economy due to devaluations in the drachma. In other words, it had both the fiscal and monetary policies in its hand. After the euro currency was introduced in 2001, dynamic changes took place. Suddenly, the greek banks and the state were able to get loans with low interest rates. This flood of cheap money erased the local industry and the local businesses, because everyone was able to get a loan and buy for instance german goods in the same currency. At the same time, a strong euro made greek stuff expensive. Nobody cared, because cheap loans ment that people were able to get "free" money. This was happening in all med countries as well. Out of this situation, Germany was the biggest beneficial and to less extend the Netherlands. Germany produces brand name goods that are less susceptible to exchange rate fluctuations. Someone who wants a Mercedes or a BMW will buy it whether the euro is strong or weak. Someone who wants a spanish SEAT for example will think twice if the euro is strong. To keep a long story short, the EURO spoiled the Med people first and secondly damaged their economy.

As long as things went well, everyone was happy. German goods were flooded all over the eurozone. These goods were bought by loans granted from mostly german and french banks to other EU banks, which in turn gave loans to private firms and individuals to buy those goods or houses. Things went so well that Germany and France were the first countries to breach the strict Maastricht Treaty rules regarding fiscal discipline. Imagine what the other eurozone countries did then...

But the biggest problem was the lack of a surplus redistribution mechanism. To put it differently, in the US the state of Arizona will always be in deficit vis-a-vis New York for example. What the White House do is to take some surpluses and invest them in Arizona in terms of military bases for example. Similarly, in the UK, Newcastle for example will always be in deficit vis-a-vis London. In this case, London will invest some money surpluses in Newcastle or in other rural areas to balance things out.

This mechanism never happened in the Eurozone. Germany was gathering huge surpluses that were not re-invested in the "rural" eurozone countries.


Today

And then we had the 2008 Lehman Brothers crisis. You know the rest. Outside the US, it spreaded first to Iceland, then to Ireland and then to Greece. Suddenly, the world realised that there was a debt crisis.

The problem in Greece right now is that people are fed of accusing them of being responsible for the EU mess. The situation resembles to a great extend the Germany of the 1920s. The Germans of the Versailles Treaty and the Weimar Republic were humiliated by the other western countries and marginalized. The german economy was in deep recession and the political instablity that followed gave rise to the Nazi party.

This is exactly what happening in Greece right now. Greeks are proud people and given the current climate, they are forced to opt for the far left and far right political spectrum as a mean to diffuse their anger towards the mainstream Greek politicans and to punish the Brussels because they know that the EU officials despise both far left and far right. This behaviour is justified partly due to the "reverse psychology" syndrome (i.e. people smoke because of the "do not smoke" warnings on the tobacco).


I am tired of typing, hence I will stop here.

JAKL
19th May 2012, 17:50
If we all chipped in £26, could Dave and Nick get us out of Europe too?

Or have we given every hope to Hector Pascals and his European pals!

G-CPTN
19th May 2012, 18:28
Pundits have suggested that the solution would be for Germany to leave the Euro and return to the Deutschmark as Germany is being hampered by the 'weak' Euro.

How would that work?

Greece (and Spain) would still be in need of financial support, would they not?

dazdaz1
19th May 2012, 18:34
It's the voters back in the 70s when Ted Heath 'pulled a fast one' who were conned. It was a market in those days, trading between each country in their own monitory system.

Then over the years the EU was created, and our country powers and financial holdings were amalgamated in to this monster we have now.

Jezz, it's been years since the books (financial) have been 'signed off' in audits. I ponder why? Something sucks in Brussels. It's us mugs who don't stand up and ask WHY??

Daz

stuckgear
19th May 2012, 18:34
Pundits have suggested that the solution would be for Germany to leave the Euro and return to the Deutschmark as Germany is being hampered by the 'weak' Euro.

How would that work?

Greece (and Spain) would still be in need of financial support, would they not?


Now that would be something from left field ! the Euro-drivers turning their back on it ! i think that would definately cause an immediate implosion of the Euro.

hellsbrink
19th May 2012, 18:36
Pundits have suggested that the solution would be for Germany to leave the Euro and return to the Deutschmark as Germany is being hampered by the 'weak' Euro.

How would that work?

Greece (and Spain) would still be in need of financial support, would they not?

It's the equivalent of saying "Screw you guys, we're going home". The rest would need the financial support, but Germany wouldn't be paying it.

hellsbrink
19th May 2012, 18:42
i think that would definately cause an immediate implosion of the Euro.

And the end of the EU as others do the same.


We're waiting to see who blinks first. If Greece (under whatever government appears after the next election, if one appears) bluffs and wins, the slo-mo train crash goes on. If their bluff is called, they could pull out voluntarily and that could lead Spain to do the same leading to a chain reaction. If they kick out Greece, then Spain, et al, pull out before they suffer the same fate. Doesn't matter what the cause is, the result is meltdown.

If Germany blinks, it all happens faster.



I don't think these people in charge actually know what they are doing.........

Tableview
19th May 2012, 18:51
The Euro was destined to self-destruct from its inception. What was unknown was the time scale and the extent of the collateral damage. Of course initially nobody discussed these inconvenient and unpalatable truths, but now they are being openly discussed and quantified.

I don't think these people in charge actually know what they are doing.........
They do, but they are politicians with noses deeply into the trough and are continuing in the direction that benefits them. If the Euro had been conceived by economists and accountants rather than politicians, it would never have happened!

All that's happening now is that they are talking about papering over the cracks, delaying the inevitable and ensuring that when it does happen, it will be worse.

flying lid
19th May 2012, 19:37
Euro in Greece, just a few weeks left.

Greek Crisis: British Money Printer De La Rue 'Draws Up Plans' To Print Drachma Banknotes (http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/05/18/greek-crisis-british-money-drachma_n_1526903.html?ref=uk&ref=uk)

Lid

hellsbrink
19th May 2012, 19:42
Ain't they been gearing up to print all sorts of currencies for months, lid?

probes
20th May 2012, 06:32
Thank you, Dedalus, it was interesting.
Although I do not think it's that much 'people' that are being accused.
people are fed of accusing them of being responsible for the EU mess

Tableview
20th May 2012, 09:31
BBC News - A Point of View: The European Dream Has Become A Nightmare (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-18119242)

If you can read through the waffle and the history lessons, there are a couple of valid points int his rather lengthy and academic article.

Richard Taylor
20th May 2012, 10:14
Greece should get the hell out of the discredited Euro & return to the Drachma & save itself. All other countries that are struggling to cope with trying to remain in the Euro should return to previous own currencies.

Attention to be turned to & action taken against those stock market, money market & credit rating speculators & spivs that have hugely contributed to the mess the Euro Zone - & therefore most of the rest of the economic world - is now in. It's almost like they are creating the uncertainty & volatility - deliberately, in some cases? It feels like it!

Those incompetent, impotent yet dangerous Euro policitians that are still trying to peddle the Euro should be drummed out of Strasbourg/Brussels, arrested & sent for trial in the Hague - then locked up for a very very long time. The Belgian Guy Verhoftstadt for one, who seems to be one of the greatest enthusiasts. The former Commie Barosso for another.

What people like Farage & Hannan have been saying has been proved 100% correct.

What a mess! :ugh:

Storminnorm
20th May 2012, 11:06
They can all do what they want as far as I'm concerned.

Just as long as I have a few Bank notes with our Dear Queen
smiling at me on them, I don't care.

arcniz
20th May 2012, 14:26
I'm thinking the Greeks will surprise us all by pulling some sort of Trojan Rabbit out of a hat at the critical moment of the crisis.

My best guess is that they'll arrange to sell off a few relatively unimportant islands -- for enough to settle their accounts in the EU and have a nice party on-top -- to the willing Chinese, who love a good joke, have lots of dollars they'd just as soon flog off, and might be able to profit quite handsomely from having a large bought-and-paid-for in perpetuity air-and-naval base, shipping depot, and free-trade zone smack in the veritable navel of the Mediterranean.

Colonialism isn't dead. Just changing languages.....

Arfica, of course, is the real prize.

stuckgear
20th May 2012, 14:39
My best guess is that they'll arrange to sell off a few relatively unimportant islands -- for enough to settle their accounts in the EU and have a nice party on-top -- to the willing Chinese, who love a good joke, have lots of dollars they'd just as soon flog off, and might be able to profit quite handsomely from having a large bought-and-paid-for in perpetuity air-and-naval base, shipping depot, and free-trade zone smack in the veritable navel of the Mediterranean.

Colonialism isn't dead. Just changing languages.....

Arfica, of course, is the real prize.

well the chinese have been buying up large swathes of Africa for a few years now. Agriculture, oil, gas, mines, mining rights, shopping centers etc etc.

Tableview
20th May 2012, 16:31
To which I would add that what the Chinese are doing in Africa will make the 'evils' of colonialism look like a Sunday school tea party. They are ruthlessly efficient, self-interested, and mercenary.

Fareastdriver
20th May 2012, 16:48
-----and very deep pockets.

Shack37
20th May 2012, 16:52
To which I would add that what the Chinese are doing in Africa will make the 'evils' of colonialism look like a Sunday school tea party. They are ruthlessly efficient, self-interested, and mercenary.



As were the Brits, French, Spanish, Dutch, Portuguese etc. etc.

Tableview
20th May 2012, 17:16
Not to the same extent as the Chinese. I have seen some of it with my own eyes.

Tableview
20th May 2012, 20:51
What happens next if Greece leaves the eurozone?



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/world/europe/12/greece_leaves/img/greece_leaves_624_2-01.gif

Sovereign debt crisis
Sovereign debt is the money a government borrows from its own citizens or from investors around the world. But if Greece leaves the eurozone, investors will become very nervous about lending to struggling countries.
This could leave the governments of Spain and Italy short of money and in need of a bailout. These two huge countries together account for 28% of the eurozone's total economy, but the EU's bailout fund currently doesn't have enough money to prop both of them up. Even France's government could get into trouble if it needed to bail out its enormous banking sector.


Greek meltdown
Greece's banks would be facing collapse. People's savings would be frozen. Many businesses would go bankrupt. The cost of imports - which in Greece includes a lot of its food and medicine - could double, triple or even quadruple as the new drachma currency plummets in value.
With their banks bust, Greeks would find it impossible to borrow, making it impossible for a while to finance the import of some goods. One of Greece's biggest industries, tourism, could be disrupted by political and social turmoil. In the longer run, Greece's economy should benefit from having a much more competitive exchange rate. But its underlying problems, including the government's overspending problem, may not go away.


Political backlash
As eurozone governments and the European Central Bank face enormous losses on the loans they gave to Greece, public opinion in Germany may turn against providing the even larger bailouts probably now needed by big countries like Italy and Spain. The ECB's role in quietly providing rescue loans to these countries would be exposed and could become politically explosive, making it harder for the ECB to continue to prop up their economies.
However, the threat of a meltdown might push Europe's or the eurozone's governments to agree a comprehensive solution - either dissolution of the single currency, or more integration, perhaps through a democratically-elected European presidency tasked with overseeing a massive round of bank rescues, government guarantees and growth-stimulating infrastructure investment.

Metro man
21st May 2012, 01:48
Basically Greece is a third world country which used borrowed money to have a first world living standard. Now the party is over and the bill needs to be paid.

Just like a household which is in debt up to its eyes from living beyond it's means and nobody is willing to give up the nights out, latest clothes, electronic toys and new car.

It's not rocket science, spend less than you earn and only borrow what is needed for sensible purposes and is within your means to repay. Borrowing to pay for a home extension which adds value to your house and has repayments which can be met from your surplus income makes sense. Borrowing to pay for the weeks groceries can't go on forever.

The Americans are going down the same road, refusing stop spending beyond their ability to repay because it would be unpopular with the electorate.

US economy can't be hostage to debt crisis White House - Channel NewsAsia (http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/1201779/1/.html)

Matari
21st May 2012, 03:06
The Americans are going down the same road, refusing stop spending beyond their ability to repay because it would be unpopular with the electorate.

No, it's a big country with many different constituents.

Look to the State governors to see the true mood of the country, not the Federal government. The whole "tea party" movement, painted in UK and Europe as bunch of racist neanderthals, was instead spurred by Obama's massive government spending and uncontrollable debt.

Scott Walker in Wisconsin made massive budget cuts, but is now up against a brutal public union-funded recall vote, but he might just pull it off. Chris Christie in New Jersey has done the same. Ditto for Bobby Jindal, Sarah Palin (I know, just the name sends our lefty friends into fits of rage), and Susan Martinez.

Let's see in November if your statement pans out.

Slasher
21st May 2012, 03:40
Just like a household which is in debt up to its eyes from
living beyond it's means and nobody is willing to give up the
nights out, latest clothes, electronic toys and new car.

The missus pulled out the old Married With Children episodes
recently and I can't help but compare Peg Bundy with Greek
politicians - the similarities are glaring. But that's where the
sameness ends - Greece doesn't have an Al Bundy doing all
the bloody work to pay off her credit cards.

Metro man
21st May 2012, 06:12
No, it's a big country with many different constituents.

$15 TRILLION in debt and borrowing to pay the interest.
No credible plan or schedule to repay.
Too many powerful groups with vested interests who oppose taking the necessary medicine to cure the patient if they're going to be affected.

No problem though as to quote Paul Krugman "U.S. debt is, to a large extent, money we owe to ourselves."

And, unlike Greece the USA is "too big to fail" :rolleyes:

Load Toad
21st May 2012, 07:26
'Not to the same extent as the Chinese. I have seen some of it with my own eyes.'

Are you old enough to have seen what the Belgians & the Germans did in Africa with your own eyes?

pvmw
21st May 2012, 08:35
:
'Not to the same extent as the Chinese. I have seen some of it with my own eyes.'

Are you old enough to have seen what the Belgians & the Germans did in Africa with your own eyes?

Presumably you are ?????

stuckgear
21st May 2012, 09:20
Basically Greece is a third world country which used borrowed money to have a first world living standard.


well, yes and no.

Initially, Greece did not meet the conversion criteria to join the EU while the EUrocrats were ever keen to expand the socialist dream.

Off Greece went to the Vampire Squid (Goldman Sachs) and magically 6-9 months later, Greece 'magically' meets the convergence criteria and is admitted into the EU.

By accruing more debt on top of it's already existing debt (as many countries have) it made the criteria. The Eurocrats were complicit in this. If they were not any modicum of due dilligence would have uncovered the sudden change. The most simple of accounting concepts would expose such changes. Either the EU was complicit or crassly negligent.

So more debt on existing debt...

For the past 100 years, Greece has been a weak economy. prior to WWII it was a sleepy backwater of Europe, after WWII it's been subject to being a sleepy backwater of Europe recovering from the war, socialist, military coups and has had periods of growth with the tourist trade development of the 70's, 80's and 90's but a strong economy ? no.

th cause of the greek economic problems are not due to the greeks not paying taxes with Niky and Mihalakis pocketing some of the tourists resteraunt bill paid in cash, but by an unworkable ideological structure that was deemed workable from Liverpool to Lublijana.

from post here: http://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/471033-eu-politics-hamsterwheel-65.html#post7200424


What has made the project unworkable is the insistence that the EU be a vehicle for democratic socialism: the impossible dream was not European unity but universal “social solidarity” stretching across a continent, for which the single market was simply a milch cow to produce the funds.

Unfeasibly enormous social security and entitlement promises were made on the basis that the free market would always provide. Nobody bothered to ask what would happen when the market faltered or fluctuated (as genuinely free markets do) or when the sense of entitlement outgrew the wealth that could be created.


So Greece's debt was amassed on idelogical principles that a common currency of Europe could absorb debt from weak countries and pay it down from stronger economies.

And that debt could be paid down by amassing more of it:

When the crisis burst out in 2010, Greece had €300bn of debt, held overwhelmingly by private creditors and governed by Greek law. It would have been a painful but fairly straightforward exercise to default, putting the country back on its feet. Instead, the EU advanced expensive bailout loans, imposed ferocious austerity, and created the worst depression in Greek history.

The result was that by early 2012 Greek debt had risen to €370bn. Of that, however, only about €200bn remained in private hands. In less than two years, the EU had saddled Greece with a massive official debt, much of which had been used to retire old debt, allowing large private creditors to exit without losses.


If fresh borrowing by the Greek state to finance the deal is taken into account, the actual reduction of Greek debt in 2012 will be less than 10%. Even worse, Greek debt will become largely official and governed by British law. More than €40bn will be owed to the IMF, which has absolute seniority in repayment.

EU policy has thus succeeded in transforming a debt problem between a state and its private lenders into a debt problem among states and bilateral organisations.
Greece is heading for hell, thanks to the EU's botched handling of the crisis | Costas Lapavitsas | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk (http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/mar/19/greece-heading-for-hell-eu-crisis)

Greece has been sacrificed on the altar of EU ideology with debt being the knife, the Eurocrats the high priests and the socialists & Europhiles, whipping themselves into a frenzy of Europhilia, the congregation, screaming for more.

Load Toad
21st May 2012, 12:26
Quote:
Quote:
:
'Not to the same extent as the Chinese. I have seen some of it with my own eyes.'
Are you old enough to have seen what the Belgians & the Germans did in Africa with your own eyes?
Presumably you are ?????

How old do you have to be to read decent history books?

dead_pan
21st May 2012, 12:52
allowing large private creditors to exit without losses

But what about the much-lauded haircuts? I thought most were compelled to accept large write-downs.

stuckgear
21st May 2012, 13:07
good point dead pan, quite possibly the inference is the retired 'old debt' investors losses, not the new debt [sic] investors losses.

In less than two years, the EU had saddled Greece with a massive official debt, much of which had been used to retire old debt, allowing large private creditors to exit without losses.

IE the new debt, the massive official debt has been used to pay down or 'retire' the old debt, thus allowing large private creditors to exit without losses. the new debt, however, investors have had to take a 'haircut' on, and lets be honest about that haircut, for it's euphemisms of sounding like a clean and freshen up, the reality is those banks (who use our money) and investors, pensions funds etc, taking cents on the dollar of their original investment instead of getting zip all.

the 'new', 'new', debt will probably get written off as unrecoverable.

so, in summary:

- old debt, has new debt to pay it off

- the new debt, taken on to pay down or retire the old debt.. investors have a choice of nothing or cents on the dollar of their old investment.

- the new, new debt taken on to pay down investors getting minus returns and the potential losses to investors; everything ??

This is the farce that EU believed in and the economic 'unfeasibility' that has been denied for some 5 years making the situation not only worse but now cataclysmic.

Matari
21st May 2012, 14:18
Metro Man,

Well you've missed the point entirely. You said the US electorate was not willing to make the tough changes to reduce the debt. You are wrong. I pointed to several examples where State governments were doing exactly that, and the Governors of those States are popular. And so you responded with a Paul Krugman reference.

Paul Krugman, unions, the Greeks and Spaniards want more spending and more debt. The American public, the average hard-working, non-union guy and gal wants less spending and less debt. Debt reduction is a winning position with the electorate, not a losing position, as we will see in November (and in Scott Walker's upcoming recall election).

OFSO
21st May 2012, 14:21
Just heard some expert being interviewed on the beeb say that in the event of Greece leaving the euro, the 'first priority' (presumably of Germany, sorry make that the EU) will be to prevent a run on banks in Spain and Italy to prevent the complete collapse of the currency.

"Preventing a run on banks" can only mean stopping people withdrawing their hard-earned money, what else ?

If there was ever a time when people in those two countries (and maybe more - Ireland ? Portugal ?) should be withdrawing their cash and storing it under the bed, it's now.

Fellow dwellers in the PIIGS, you have been warned.

Fox3WheresMyBanana
21st May 2012, 14:26
In short, the debt has been transferred from a few rich people to a lot of taxpayers, i.e. poor people.

One day, the poor people might notice. It happened in France in 1789. Quite a lot of "haircuts" followed.

Metro man
21st May 2012, 14:42
The American public, the average hard-working, non-union guy and gal wants less spending and less debt.

True, but they are out numbered by those living off the government who would bear the brunt of the necessary cut backs. No political party will be elected with promises of major cuts to welfare and the government gravy train, just like most western countries.

A country is doomed when there are more people living off the treasury than paying into it. A major problem with democracy is that people can keep on voting for benefits well beyond the country's means to pay for them.

Is there a credible plan to pay back all this money ?

Matari
21st May 2012, 15:03
True, but they are out numbered

I agree with you, and your quote above seems to be the only part we are quibbling about.

The Congressional elections in 2010 showed there were plenty (a majority) of voters who were fed up with the uncontrolled spending. Keep an eye on 5 June, when Wisconsin's voters will choose (http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/Walker-Wisconsin-recall-polls/2012/05/19/id/439628) to keep the cost-cutting Scott Walker as Governor. That will be a true bellweather for the November elections.

Mac the Knife
21st May 2012, 15:07
"To which I would add that what the Chinese are doing in Africa will make the 'evils' of colonialism look like a Sunday school tea party. They are ruthlessly efficient, self-interested, and mercenary."

China has zero interest in Africa except as a source of raw materials and as another market for exports.

China will not set up any local labour-intensive industries because (for lots of reasons) they don't want to have to deal with the local labour supply.

If ensuring that it has another large overseas market means nudging/coercing Africa into some kind of stable sanity then they'll do that too.

So it may not be too bad.

:E

con-pilot
21st May 2012, 15:11
Keep an eye on 5 June, when Wisconsin's voters will choose to keep the cost-cutting Scott Walker as Governor. That will be a true bellweather for the November elections.

Very true, when one considers the tens of millions of dollars the unions and the Democratic Party has poured into Wisconsin forcing the recall vote.

stuckgear
21st May 2012, 16:24
Just heard some expert being interviewed on the beeb say that in the event of Greece leaving the euro, the 'first priority' (presumably of Germany, sorry make that the EU) will be to prevent a run on banks in Spain and Italy to prevent the complete collapse of the currency.

"Preventing a run on banks" can only mean stopping people withdrawing their hard-earned money, what else ?



in other words, preventing or restricting people from having access to their own assets.

Socialist Ideals are great huh !

OFSO
21st May 2012, 17:05
Indeed, Stuckgear. It will be interesting to see how it's done. Since all bills are paid by direct debit here, one presumes those will be allowed, as will credit card transactions for purchases. But not withdrawals of cash.

However there are still a couple of weeks to go until that happens, methinks, with the eiserne Kanzlerin still insisting nothing is wrong.

dead_pan
21st May 2012, 17:18
I don't think it will come to that - as happened with Bankia the week before last, the authorities will step in as soon as a bank is in trouble to prevent panic. They will all be closely monitoring the money markets etc to see if any of their charges are having problems raising money, always a sure-fire indicator that there's trouble ahead.

Depositors tend to be the last to hear their bank is in trouble.

stuckgear
21st May 2012, 21:10
possible solution to save Greece and the Euro.


Greece defaults, then reinvents itself with low corporate tax to become an business haven a la Monaco / certain Caribbean islands. located in close proximity to Europe, with low corporate taxes it would prove a good company base for European organisations, especially with taxes on the rise in Europe to pay down the structural debt problems.

of course, it would mightily piss the eurocrats off.

Fox3WheresMyBanana
21st May 2012, 23:37
Good idea for Greece, though I don't see how it saves the Euro if a wodge of Eurozone jobs disappear to Greece, and tax revenues disappear into Directors' pockets. I doubt they'll all buy Range Rovers and Ferraris with it. Superyachts more like, which they will probably get made in Greece too.\.

corsair
22nd May 2012, 00:36
If there was ever a time when people in those two countries (and maybe more - Ireland ? Portugal ?) should be withdrawing their cash and storing it under the bed, it's now.Not that worrying for me. All I have is an overdraft. I'm a human PIIG.:ok:

Tableview
22nd May 2012, 07:37
From John Cleese - British writer, actor and tall person.

A thought..............

Greece is collapsing, the Iranians, formerely Persians, are getting aggressive
and Rome is in disarray.

Welcome back to 430 BC.

tony draper
22nd May 2012, 07:50
Hmmm, perhaps we could pay the Greeks to sort out the Persians they have past experience at this sort of thing.
:rolleyes:

Tableview
22nd May 2012, 07:54
How old do you have to be to read decent history books?

What is a 'decent' history book? History is re-written by each successive regime to reflect its own agenda and I would contend that there is no such thing as ahistory book which is purely factual and unbiased. The history of South Africa that I learned is very different to that being taught now. I wouldn't define either of them as accurate. Decent? That depends on your perspective.

Load Toad
22nd May 2012, 09:24
Find me a history book that praises the humanitarian actions of the Belgians & the Germans in Africa....

Mac the Knife
22nd May 2012, 10:01
In "Tintin in the Congo" the White Father (missionary, presumably Belgian) is a goodie, Muller (identifiably German) and his white trash assistant (presumably Belgian) are the baddies.

The boozy extravagance of the baddie Chief looks pretty much like all their leaders since the end of colonialism.

Mac :ok:

[This isn't to say that Leopold's Congo wasn't a nightmare, far from it]

Tableview
22nd May 2012, 10:07
Find me a history book that praises the humanitarian actions of the Belgians & the Germans in Africa....
Silly comment, we all know there isn't one and I never claimed there was, nor as far as I know did anyone else indicate the same sentiment.

....what the Chinese are doing in Africa will make the 'evils' of colonialism look like a Sunday school tea party. They are ruthlessly efficient, self-interested, and mercenary."

That's all. Let's not have a pointless confrontation on this.

probes
23rd May 2012, 15:38
Debt crisis: live - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9283848/Debt-crisis-live.html)


Eurozone nations are reportedly told to prepare for a Greek euro exit, and markets fall ahead of key meeting of European leaders in Brussels, as hopes fade that new measures will be agreed.

dazdaz1
23rd May 2012, 17:37
I've most of my money in a UK bank account (Live in UK) and understand the Gov will compensate/guarantee to 85k if bank goes tits up.

What signs on the International markets would you consider (UK) withdrawing your cash?

Daz

AlpineSkier
23rd May 2012, 18:58
First, that's 85K per banking license so you can have 1,000 K guaranteed without much trouble.

Secondly, since the UK via the BOE vouches for its own money, I don't think there would be much point in taking your money out of a government-guaranteed scheme because you thought the government would not honour its promises and then hope that other countries would put much value in this money/government.

I keep any major cash with HSBC which is a huge, diversified international bank with not much investment banking activity. Also being partly domiciled in China/HK probably means that both the bank and the Chinese overseers are careful not to make themselves look stupid on the world stage.

probes
23rd May 2012, 19:42
another poll from the Telegraph :)

Should eurozone nations create Grexit contingency plan? (poll 6254335) (http://polldaddy.com/poll/6254335/)

hellsbrink
23rd May 2012, 19:54
Going by some of the reports out there, I think it's now a foregone conclusion.

Time to stockpile a bit

stuckgear
23rd May 2012, 20:38
Going by some of the reports out there, I think it's now a foregone conclusion.

Time to stockpile a bit

I've already started stockpiling Greeks, i now have enough to open three restaurants and 2 barber shops.

Fox3WheresMyBanana
23rd May 2012, 22:56
For those with Cyprus time, this really is 'Keo'* economics.

The recession will be dismal - smashing paper plates is no fun at all.




* and for those who haven't, Keo brew Carlsberg (and other things) under licence in Cyprus, and it's so bad that adding Keo as a prefix to anything is a quick way of say "it's crap"

stuckgear
24th May 2012, 08:41
and the hangover will be worse than an industrial size bottle of metaxa.

KAG
25th May 2012, 13:14
85% of JB believe Greece will leave Eurozone this year, in 2012.
7 months to go, and counting down.
The poll is closed, and we do really have a nice opinion poll here, thanks to the great participation, but the thread remains open, let's meet again right here January the first, 2013.

I almost forgot: I have voted too, and I am among the 15% few...

Thanks to the JB mod for setting up this poll.

Cheers.

Storminnorm
25th May 2012, 14:51
HSBC for me.
Been with them since they were Midland Bank in the 60's.

Never had any problems.

I HOPE that Greece don't exit the Euro.
It COULD bring the whole house of cards down.

Disastrous for everyone.

Groundbased
25th May 2012, 15:12
I'm surprised that some economists are predicting January 2013 as the point when Greece will exit the Euro.

Natuarally anybody's "prediction" is nothing more than a guess, but this seems a strange one to me.

1. If the Greek's form a non-austerity government in June the bailout taps will be turned off. I don't see how they can stay in on that basis
2. If they get a pro asuterity government one assumes that the bailouts will keep coming, therefore why is January 2013 likely to be a point where they can't go on
3.Perhaps they think this is the extent of the northern european economies political will to throw more money down the pan.

I'm genuinely curious as to how many of the Euro champions believe that full political and monetary union of the Eurozone countries is an acceptable way to save the currency? It celarly can't work as currently structured.

stuckgear
25th May 2012, 15:20
I'm surprised that some economists are predicting January 2013 as the point when Greece will exit the Euro.



no doubt if Greece does depart the Euro on 1st January 2012, KAG will claim that as a 'win' that he was right and everyone else is wrong and the Euro is working exactly as it should.

:E

side note: i'm surprised too on the projected date of january 2013, in the mean time, there's months more pain for the population of the EU to bear and billions more to thrown into a black hole of debt that will never be recovered further damaging economies.

it simply is beyond criminal !

Storminnorm
25th May 2012, 15:51
Couldn't the EU simply sell off the Greeks to anyone in Euroland
that needs a gardener or cleaner?
There must be a multitude of fairly simple tasks that they could
undertake.
I'd buy one if they weren't TOO expensive.

stuckgear
25th May 2012, 15:57
Couldn't the EU simply sell off the Greeks to anyone in Euroland
that needs a gardener or cleaner?
There must be a multitude of fairly simple tasks that they could
undertake.
I'd buy one if they weren't TOO expensive.

like i said...

I've already started stockpiling Greeks, i now have enough to open three restaurants and 2 barber shops.

Storminnorm
25th May 2012, 16:01
Sorry Stuckgear. I must get in the habit of reading back a bit
before I open my Gob.
I hope the Barbershop ones don't Effin SING !!!!

stuckgear
25th May 2012, 16:13
sing! hell no.. i'm going for 'Bouzouki Barbers' ©®

mixture
25th May 2012, 16:53
Greece....

Apparently running low on houmous and taramasalata

Definitely a double dip.

Tableview
25th May 2012, 23:49
However, there are growing concerns that if Greece was forced to leave the euro, it would effectively go bankrupt and millions could lose their jobs and consider looking for work abroad.

Very true. There are probably more Greeks out of Greece than in it, and those who've left are hard working people. The ones left in Greece are either unwilling to work, unwilling to pay taxes, crooks, or all of those things. The thought that they might flood out is worrying. The EU has no way of stopping it.

probes
28th May 2012, 16:26
Grexit - June 18.
Greece to Leave Euro Zone on June 18: Wealth Manager - CNBC (http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000092714)

OFSO
28th May 2012, 19:45
Mrs OFSO just called me from London to say a report on TV says bookings by British tourists for holidays in Greece are up double on what they were last year. They will be onto a damn good thing if probes' post above is correct !

Best Outcome for Greece is 'Status Quo of Recession': Strategist (http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000092427)

So not only do they get out of the euro and regain control of their economy, they get the best rock band in the world, too. Although I'm not sure whether "Whatever You Want" or "You're in the Army Now" will be more appropriate.......

vulcanised
28th May 2012, 20:48
Think Dire Straits would be more appropriate.

No, they can't have them.

dead_pan
28th May 2012, 21:06
Grexit - June 18.
Greece to Leave Euro Zone on June 18: Wealth Manager - CNBC (http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000092714)

So who's going to call time on Greece's membership? The pro-bailout parties are making headway in the polls, so its unlikely we'll see the Greek turkeys voting for Christmas. The EU-ECB-IMF troika can't really do anything beyond issuing stern warnings to those in charge - they certainly aren't going to kick Greece out. As for those hedgies and other speculators, they're unwilling to go the whole hog and force Greece out (a la George Soros and the UK in '92) as they like the rest of us don't really know what the consequences will be. The word impasse comes to mind.

KAG
29th May 2012, 03:12
June 18th?

It happens to be 1 day after the next Greek election...
Greeks have their destiny in their hands... Their choice.

hellsbrink
29th May 2012, 05:25
If it was only their own destiny, then I wouldn't mind.

probes
29th May 2012, 06:31
as he said in the interview - are the Germans willing to retire at 67 instead of 65 so that the Greek could do it at 50?
Actually I wonder how true the stories about multiple well-paid helpers for the parliament members, early generous pensions and free meals in the universities are.
Or would it be better not to know? :suspect:

OFSO
29th May 2012, 17:26
A friend has just called from London to say he's seen the drachma up on the boards in the currency futures trading market. Positions were being offered after mid-June.

Either this is a wind-up (quite likely !) or we can close this poll right now.

AlpineSkier
29th May 2012, 17:33
OFSO

These "futures boards", are they up in travel agents per your previous post ?

Otherwise can you say where the "currency futures trading market " is located ? I know the location of several markets, but not familiar with this one .

stuckgear
29th May 2012, 18:26
:oh::oh:

http://www.exchangerate.com/CurrencyRatesLineGraph?last30=30;cid=239;currency=92;date_fr om=04-29-2012;date_to=05-29-2012

OFSO
30th May 2012, 11:10
I asked my bank manager this morning if I could invest in the drachma futures market (could, as in "is it possible" not as in "I want to".) When he finished laughing, he made a phone call and said "yes, it is possible".

Tableview
31st May 2012, 11:19
For anybody who doesn't fully understand the Euro situation , it is explained in the picture below . . . .
http://i1078.photobucket.com/albums/w497/pprunemike/Euro-1.jpg

Tableview
31st May 2012, 12:05
KAG :

:ok:

KAG
31st May 2012, 12:06
Well, I would lie if I said it didn't make me laugh.

But this pic was funnier in its original version with comments on top and at the bottom of it:

When top level guys look down they see only sh*t.


When bottom level guys look up they see only @ssh*les.

Tableview
31st May 2012, 15:57
Eurozone set-up unsustainable, says Draghi

European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi says that eurozone leaders must decide what they want the bloc to look like in the future, because the current set-up is "unsustainable".

Talk about stating the BFO! And he gets paid for it.

G&T ice n slice
31st May 2012, 16:24
door, horse, stable, closing, bolted, the, after, the, has

let's see if anyone can arrange the abose "into a well know phrase or saying"

SHEESH it's taken over 2 years for someone in the Eurozone to state the complete bleedin' obvious innit.

Storminnorm
31st May 2012, 16:27
Don't count your chickens before they're hatched?

probes
31st May 2012, 16:28
More like: count the ones you never had?

stuckgear
31st May 2012, 17:16
or count other peoples.

Tableview
31st May 2012, 17:18
Nothing wrong with counting other peoples' money, it when these 'socialist' tossers start using it.

oxenos
31st May 2012, 17:42
""it's taken over 2 years for someone in the Eurozone to state the complete bleedin' obvious innit. ""
13 years is nearer the mark.

Lonewolf_50
31st May 2012, 20:57
oxenos, agreed.

While all of the Euro Hype was going on in the 90's, I was one of them skeptics pointing out that one more tool of government, the occasional choice to devalue or float currency, had been removed to be replaced by the authority of the Bundesbank. This was me, an American talking, in the late 90's.

I kept pointing out that, among political scientists and such, one of the tests of sovereignity was Do You Have Your Own Currency?

Nobody wanted to hear it.

There are some who took my argument a step further, and suggested that the Bundesbank was trying to establish the Fourth Reich via economic means. See Clausewitz: war is policy by "other" means. Well, attempting to establish the Fourth Reich via conquest, economic, etc, looks a lot like Clausewitz meeting both Sun Tzu and Metternich and trying to have tea.

G&T ice n slice
31st May 2012, 21:56
13 years is nearer the mark.

yeah, wurl, I was trying to be nice...

I never cease to be utterly perplexed by them upstairs wot know stuff.

In 1996 I prepared a report about Asia. I looked at lots of numbers and came to the conclusion that they were so heavily in debt the whole shebang would go bang. I was told to take that out of the repport because it wouldn;t happen.
Ummm then along came 1997 & wot happened??

In early 1999 I produced a little something that said, effectively, that "Irrational Exuberance" probably meant that everything would go bang, and the dot-com thing would implode & all the technological goodies we were filling our aircraft with would no longer be needed and we would have to be prepared to fly our airyplanes to the desert store. I was not flavour of the month.
Ummmm then along came 2000 and wot happened?

During the run-up to the Euro introduction I wrote 2 pieces, - 1 suggesting that the transition to the new currency would probably see a bit of a surge in inflation in several countries. I wasn't popular.... the other piece suggested that there wre some strange arrangements, or lack of arrangements regarding the way the Euro would work... I wasn;t popular...

I was given lots of money & told to "spend more time with the family"

I don;t suppose for 1 minute that there was a surge in inflation and I expect the Euto is trotting along quite happily.

stuckgear
31st May 2012, 21:57
Nothing wrong with counting other peoples' money, it when these 'socialist' tossers start using it.


isn't that the truth ! and they never consider that at some point it will run out and the ponzi scheme, that is socialism, has led to implosion.

Tableview
2nd Jun 2012, 10:33
Europe should ditch euro, says minister who forced UK out - Mail & Guardian Online (http://mg.co.za/article/2012-06-01-europe-should-ditch-euro-says-minister-who-forced-uk-out)

An insightful article by Norman Lamont, who took the UK out of the ERM and foresaw the demise of the Euro.

Phalconphixer
2nd Jun 2012, 22:38
Baldrick: "What I want to know, Sir is, before there was a Euro there were lots of different types of money that different people used. And now there's only one type of money that the foreign people use. And what I want to know is, how did we get from one state of affairs to the other state of affairs"

Blackadder: "Baldrick. Do you mean, how did the Euro start?"

Baldrick: "Yes Sir"

Blackadder: "Well, you see Baldrick, back in the 1980s there were many different countries all running their own finances and using different types of money. On one side you had the major economies of France, Belgium, Holland and Germany, and on the other, the weaker nations of Spain, Greece, Ireland, Italy and Portugal. They got together and decided that it would be much easier for everyone if they could all use the same money, have one Central Bank, and belong to one large club where everyone would be happy. This meant that there could never be a situation whereby financial meltdown would lead to social unrest, wars and crises".

Baldrick: "But this is sort of a crisis, isn't it Sir?".

Blackadder: "That's right Baldrick. You see, there was only one slight flaw with the plan".

Baldrick: "What was that then, Sir?"


Blackadder: "It was bo---ks".

garp
2nd Jun 2012, 22:42
Slightly different view. :confused:
http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/3078/schermafbeelding2012060.png
http://img684.imageshack.us/img684/3078/schermafbeelding2012060.png

OFSO
3rd Jun 2012, 20:23
Gentlemen: I have just today come back from attending a couple of meetings in Paris and I can assure you that based on what I heard nothing is more unlikely that Greece (or any other country) will leave the Eurozone. The euro is on solid grounds, there are no fiscal problems attaining to any member of the eurozone whatsoever, and everything is just fine, couldn't be better, and top-top. Etc.

So there.

G&T ice n slice
3rd Jun 2012, 20:35
"I have in my hand a piece of paper, signed by Mr. Hitler"

Tableview
3rd Jun 2012, 20:38
Gentlemen: I have just today come back from attending a couple of meetings in Paris and I can assure you that based on what I heard nothing is more unlikely that Greece (or any other country) will leave the Eurozone. The euro is on solid grounds, there are no fiscal problems attaining to any member of the eurozone whatsoever, and everything is just fine, couldn't be better, and top-top. Etc.

And on that fine bottle of wine you enjoyed on the TGV, was there a label that said : "A consommer avec moderation"?

stuckgear
3rd Jun 2012, 20:42
Gentlemen: I have just today come back from attending a couple of meetings in Paris and I can assure you that based on what I heard nothing is more unlikely that Greece (or any other country) will leave the Eurozone. The euro is on solid grounds, there are no fiscal problems attaining to any member of the eurozone whatsoever, and everything is just fine, couldn't be better, and top-top. Etc.

So there.


I trust, OFSO, that you passed my warmest regards to KAG ?

;)

Howard Hughes
4th Jun 2012, 01:50
I'm a bit late to this thread, but my tip would be early 2013...