Supply & Demand Forecast PILOT

[DRss]

A recent article "The learning Curve" from the March-April 2012 Australian Flight Safety magazine quotes:

"The big issue is that we're going to be facing another global pilot shortage" says Roger Weeks CASA manager, flying standards branch.

"ICAO's global and regional forecast for pilots, maintenance engineers and ATC predicts the aviation growth rate is going to exceed four per cent per annum for each decade until 2030"

"ICAO says, is a training deficit worldwide of about 8000 pilots"

"A grand total of 560,000 personnel over the next two decades"

"Couple that with the age demographics - 30 per cent of pilots worldwide are aged over 50- in 15 years they'll be in their retirement phase".


What are your views on these statements?

[Superpilot]

Why the Coming Pilot Shortage Isn't Creating Lots of New Pilots . . . Yet | Flying Magazine | The World (http://www.flyingmag.com/blogs/going-direct/why-coming-pilot-shortage-isnt-creating-lots-new-pilots-yet)

[mad_jock]

Its not ICAO though.

Its a boeing report on projected sales.

The training industry then cobbled something together using it and presented it at a ICAO training conference.

After which the training industry have started saying ICAO are saying there is going to be a shortage.


There is no proof out there that any of it is going to happen. Alot of the jobs are going to be in developing markets such as asia, so apart from a tempory shortage of experenced Captains while they grow thier own they will be sourcing directly.

But you won't see a shortage in Europe or any of the developed markets of low houred wannabies.

[BerksFlyer]

Mad jock has it right. The figures used tend to be Boeing's and there is a lot of disagreement about ICAO's view on this matter. The figures haven't taken into account increasing retirement age for pilots or airframe retirement.

There certainly is no shortage in the EU. And there is unlikely to ever be. Flight schools will tell you otherwise though.

Oversupply is the key for airlines to keep cutting pay and conditions.

[Torque Tonight]

Aaah, the mystical pilot shortage. Right up there with the male porn star shortage and the distillery chief taster shortage.

[Cloabp]

It takes 1-2 years to train a pilot.

No requirements regarding education...if you can read and count you are ready for training.

It would be a very different matter if we talked about shortage of engineers for example. These guys takes a long time to educate and not everybody would be able to do it. The education it self is a lot longer and it takes pre qualifications to start the study.

If there would ever be a shortage of pilots, it would be pretty simple to educate a large amount in a very short time. Just think about the MPL. Almost all you need is an FNPTII sim and you could produce huge amounts of pilots in a very short time, especially if the demand where there.

And if there where jobs after training, it would be a lot easier for people to borrow money for flight training.

So, don't expect a shortage of pilots.

[Superpilot]

Aircraft order number announcements by manufacturers and airline CEOs need to be taken with a pinch of salt. In fact, a very large pinch! What's never mentioned is fleet retirement and how that truly impacts "expansion" plans.

As far as airlines should be concerned, there isn't a shortage of people who want this job and that will never be the case. However, and we are possibly seeing this already today, there is a shortage of fools who are happy to spend > £100,000 without a guarantee of a job at the end, poor job security and atrocious terms and conditions.

[power.r]

Well said comments above!!

If there was a real shortage of pilots the cost of training would be half the price of what is is today.

[tarmac12]

I love how the articles about pilot shortages always have a message that if you want to do it you should start now and the names of a few schools are always mentioned. Not directly as advertising but in a comments from aviation proffessionals sort of way.

"CFI from XXX school says the need for pilots will shortly put a strain on instructor resources so act now to secure a place" sort of rubbish.

[Bealzebub]

It is a bit like asking an Estate agent (Realtor) if "now is a bad time to buy?" Of course the answer is that it never is. The market makers put their own spin on things and it is usually one of optimism. For them it needs to be.

This old chestnut comes up with regularity every six months or so. About 18 months ago (Sep 2010) the figure being bandied about was "One million in the next two decades." The reply I gave then was:

5 countries: China, India, Brazil, Indonesia and the USA account for roughly 48% of the worlds population and that is broadly where the main expansion is forecast. Good news if you are a citizen of one of those countries looking to train for one of these careers in the next two decades. However take out a proportional 48% and that million is now down to 520,000.

Pilots and engineers. If you are interested in the former and assuming a rather generous even split, that whittles the figure down by a further 50% to 260,000.

Of the remaining 190 countries (some don't count, and some count more than others in aviation demographic terms,) but for the point of illustration share out the remaining number equally, and you are now down to an average of 1368

Over how many years? 20! That is about 68 a year. Not that stunning really, and these are optimistic figures from a party in whose commercial interest it is to talk up the market.

Of course 68 is no more accurate in any one domain, than a million is as a glitzy number. Rather like winning a million on the lottery being tempered by the fact that you have to share it with 14,706 other winners as well. Statistics are magical versatile things, and rather like beauty, are very much in the eye of the beholder.

My reply is still the same.

[FANS]

Can anyone find a survey from 10 or 20 years ago and see what the demand should be today?!

Someone else made reference to the fact that pilot training is 18 months, not 5-7 years like engineering/medicine etc. Equally, airlines stuggle to know what they're doing this winter so these forecasts are highly questionable.

Either a tagged scheme or forget it is my perspective for now.

[wingreencard]

companies still need pilots even if they don't ...would you refuse someone who give you money for training?

[mad_jock]

Companies need pilots to still continue training in volume.

Otherwise the training system shuts down and it becomes very expensive for them when they do need pilots. Or they can't get the standard that they require coming out of the limited capacity system.

[Adios]

There are and will continue to be regional shortages, but most of these are manageable. Hong Kong lacks general aviation and has only one or two airports, plus there is only one FTO in the world with a blanket Hong Kong approval. This is why a few Hong Kong airlines pay for pilot training.

A few middle east airlines have shortages, but these are probably due to not enough indigenous interest or aptitude. Etihad comes to mind as having recruited international cadets.

I wonder what the effect of raising the minimum hour requirements in the US and Australia to 1,500 will be. In the US, this could become the minimum to fly for a regional airline. This allegedly has to do with the Colgan Air Q-400 crash, but both pilots had over 1,500 hours. I think it will create a shortage of pilots meeting the minimum, though there will be no shortage of pilots in general.

Australia recently added Commercial Pilot to the shortage list, meaning they see the need to import pilots and this is before they raise the airline minimum to 1,500 hours.

[rossiqa]

From the above post, will there be a 1500hr requirement in 2013 for Australia? Or does it just apply to the U.S.A alone?

[Piltdown Man]

If there was a real shortage of pilots the cost of training would be half the price of what is is today.

I disagree. If there was a real shortage, the price of training would be four times greater than what it is today. Today's prices for training are 'fire sale' ones and are only being offered because there is a glut of FTO's and a shortage of victims. I'll suggest that the only area where there will be a real pilot shortage will be, as ever, for experienced captains. And that shortage won't be for a few years yet. I'll predict that we'll have to wait for the PIGS countries to stabilise their economies, for Europe's funny little carbon tax system to fall apart and the middle classes in rising economies to starting spending their money before there will be real growth. Let's say five years.

PM

Oh yes, who's to blame? Let's start with those who should have been regulating the greedy bankers.