War in Iran is clearly inevitable?

[MarkJJ]

Build up of US equipment in the Gulf again, 6 - 12 months perhaps for the next round?

[MarkJJ]

well what's your view anyway?

[MarkJJ]

mhmmm, tar matey.

[Milo Minderbinder]

and another 24 pages here (with other predictions thrown in)

http://www.pprune.org/military-aircrew/470053-15-ton-big-blu.html

more here
http://www.pprune.org/military-aircrew/474314-what-possible-scenarios-re-iran-mid-east.html

[Mach Two]

MarkJJ, it probably is. But I have no idea how it's all going to happen.

KF, again, why so aggressive?

[MarkJJ]

Thanks M2.0, I just wonder how the UK might be able to take part, if they can at all.

[Courtney Mil]

I think our brave politicians might be keen not to expose the damage they have just done to our force projection capability. I think the Foreign Secretary talking on the Today programme on Thursday demonstrated that very well. A million reasons why we shouldn't get involved in Syria or Iran. Maybe we just don't have anything left.

[MarkJJ]

Totally agree lots equipment left damaged from Iraq still not fixed, warrior armoured fighting vehicle for example, key for any play with the US in whatever small part the UK could play. Not much left in the kitty for sure.

[Courtney Mil]

I think it's a case of wanting to be a big actor on the world stage, but unable or unwilling to pay for it. That said, I have to admit that some (and I mean some) of the wild predictions in the threads that Milo and KF have pointed to are valid. Something is going to happen. Israel cannot be happy and the US won't/can't stand for Iran going nuclear.

I'm watching with interest, but I'll leave it to M2 to bring on the good book senario. :ok:

[MarkJJ]

Agree with you again, but what of the Pakistan element, having sworn their allegiance, Pakistan is nuclear..

[Mach Two]

CM, the book plot started going downhill after my ban from the inventive thread. Although I probably deserved it, but that's another story. I'm re-reading Fist of God at the moment and SAM might have been right after all.

KF, still way too aggressive, fella. And I know I must be thick, but I keep missing the point you're trying to make.

Anyway, I don't think we will be visiting Iran anytime soon. What would we do it with? But I agree that the US and Israel will certainly be seeing things differently. Maybe...

[Milo Minderbinder]

Rhetorical question...after bombing Libya, do we actually have bombs left to deploy anywhere else? Does that explain the determined lack of intervention in Syria? I don't just mean the UK, but the whole European Alliance. With reports of some countries having to scrounge bombs to take part in Libya, one wonders just how low the stocks actually are.

[Courtney Mil]

MJJ, Pak is the wildcard, but very keen to get back into the fold. I would think they'll play this quietly for now. Probaly knowing that there are other nations that will take action. Nations that they know they need to regain some form of relationship with. For example, their block on NATO supplies through theit territory is an important gesture, but they really want to patch things up. They are ready for the US to reach out and say sorry. I don't think they want to embark on anything inflamatary when so much else is at risk.

M2, sorry the book plot isn't coming along so well. Fist of God should give you some good material. If not, just PM SAM!

Milo, I wondered about that too. Can't answer the question, but some here may be able to. Although a slightly sensitive issue.

KF, calm down, Dear. It's only a thread.

Off now. See you all tomorow.

[PTT]

Book plot: Total War 2006 is worth a read. Bit early on the predictions, but otherwise not bad.

[walter kennedy]

On the TV news here today, there seems a lot of back peddling re Iran's capability - criticism of the press for hyping up the threat, etc.
We were bull****ted about Iraq - how stupid are we if we join in against Iran with similar lies?
Instead of using military power to smash every potential threat to Israel, perhaps the west could ask Israel to treat the Palestinians a little better (as I believe so many European nations were doing prior to 911) and use some of the money the war would cost to improve the lives of the next generations in the middle east.

[Finningley Boy]

wk,

You're not one of these left liberal types who go round thinking we should spend our tax payers hard earned lolly on Palestinian Riff Raff and the like are you?

FB

[Sir George Cayley]

Just remind me how many died in the Iraq/Iran war?

SGC

[racedo]

Question that is unanswered is whether US build up is a way to support Israel or a way to dissaude them from the folly of such an attack.

Despite the threats made, if US told Israel that attack, ALL support is gone within 24 hours, would Israel attack, knowing it really had no place to go and US would not support it. Bearing in mind an attack will likely close Suez canal and its implications plus Saudi Arabia may have to deal with its own internal issues.

In Total War 2006 it was not Iran which nuked Israel, it was the US after Israel had used nukes on Iran in response to a chemical weapons attack, this was to stop a full nuke war worldwide.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Do US politicians have sufficient support to completely cut off Israel (let alone nuke them)? There's an election coming up.
Do the Pakistani politicians have the support to take any particular side?

Do any of them, or us, know what I'madinnerjacket and his cronies have planned for the putative nukes? I'm not sure even he knows what he's doing.

Build a few, deny it and wait would seem to be their best all-round option. The Israelis reckon it's less than a year away. Netan-yahoo! said 3 years two years ago.

Far too many variables here at the mo, I think.

[green granite]

Call me Dave said a couple or so weeks ago "Our troops would not be invoked in a war against Iran" So presumably heavy planning sessions are going on in Whitehall right now to involve the Navy and the RAF or am I being cynical. :hmm:

[tonker]

Why on earth are people talking about UK involvement. We are not local, or a world power and are on our knees financially. Its none of our business.

Stay at home, mind own business.

[Whenurhappy]

Oh dear, I think some of you need to check your medication!

Israel is a free agent but benefits from a huge political support base in the US- not just the 'jewish lobby' but also from the Christian Right. Moreover US defence export regulations also require Israel to maintain a 'qualitative edge' over its neighbours, and this has a large impact on UK sales in the region, the new Defence Trade Treaty notwithstanding. There will be political rhetoric from DC,n but that's it.

Speaking to a number of regional experts, it is thought that KSA would assist IDF is launching attacks against Iran, on the basis that 'my enemy's enemy is my friend'. Strange bedfellows, eh?

[green granite]

I suspect who wins the Presidential election in the States will also have an influence on things.

[glojo]

This should be good

http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQZl3_KpCvz1cNuSM7Yd3nZjFM_OPrVjkPFJlJRKSo vFvIuYGF4_g

All I will say is that as far as I am aware Great Britain has had most of its Mine Counter Measures assets deployed in that area for some significant time.. I now sit back

[Mach Two]

Ah, good. The plot for my book's on the move again.

[green granite]

NO country will use nuclear weapons for fear of the Chinese/Pakistan reaction/response.

I somehow doubt China would get involved to any great extent and certainly not in a nuclear attack against Israel as they would have far too much too lose and nothing to gain by helping Iran that way. Pakistan however is a different matter but they too would, hopefully, realise that the Israeli Jericho intercontinental ballistic missiles, buried in very deep silos would probably be more than capable of annihilating Pakistan in very short order leaving India to move in and pick up the pieces.

[Out Of Trim]

9. A toothless UK Government offers a couple of naval minesweepers to the US - but it will take several days to get them there - & several months to clear the mines

I believe the RN have 4 mine sweepers in place permanently. :D

[Wannabe Flyer]

SAMXXV (http://www.pprune.org/members/361833-samxxv)

wow sounds like doomsday. My money is that this heavy posturing will carry on as the Iranian president tries to drum up an election manifest and a re appointment by the ayatollah.

In a matter of months all will go quiet and the World will go back to bailing out bust economies

[Courtney Mil]

SAM,

Another very specific set of predictions and some of that may well come to pass. I'm not convinced anyone's going to go nuclear in the Mid East either and I agree that it's doubtful that Israel is likely to stand by and do nothing for much longer. I like the earlier point about "my enemy's enemy" and KSA. China is unlikely to do much, as GG says.

M2, mate. Glad the plot's been freed up again.

[Telstar]

BBC News - Analysis: How Israel might strike at Iran (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17115643)

Some journalists having fun playing arm chair generals.

[teeteringhead]

SAM ... two questions:

1. Are you making any bets this time on your geopolitical forecasts?

2. Did you ever pay up on the last ones you lost?

:ugh:

[waco]

I am quite certain that various attempts to quietly dispose of appropriate scientists in Iran will continue.

I am equally certain that considerable ciber attepts to thwart the bomb making attempts will continue and I hope these are sucessful.

If however someone tries to lob bombs in an Iranian direction this:ugh: will result in a three or fourfold increase in the price of fuel instantly. Just the same as when the Shah was over-thrown in the 1970's.

With the western world presently at the precipse still of Economic melt down. Such turmoil in the oil markets would render an economic collapse in the western world that would make the 1930's look like a prosperous period.

Result, Iran destroys the western world economically without firing a single bullet.

I really hope there are some sensible "grown ups" on the planet somewhere.

Oh and before I go. If anyone is going to be stupid enough to lob anything at anyone, could you please wait until after my summer hols........ta

[500N]

teeteringhead

Re your post

"SAM ... two questions:
1. Are you making any bets this time on your geopolitical forecasts?
2. Did you ever pay up on the last ones you lost?"

1. Here we go again ?:O

2. SAM said he paid out on my bet to the charity, not sure which one but
he posted a few days before the bet deadline that he admitted he had
lost my bet and paid up.

[minigundiplomat]

Israeli Jericho intercontinental ballistic missiles, buried in very deep silos would probably be more than capable of annihilating Pakistan in very short order leaving India to move in and pick up the pieces.



Up til now I had seen war with Iran as a bad thing. There again.......

[Lonewolf_50]

SAM
1. Iran will immediately use fast patrol boats & possibly their tiny submarine force to mine the Strait & as much of the Persian Gulf as they are able to. I have no doubt that remotely armed Chinese anti-shipping mines are already in place.

Decent probability of that. Some mine laying will likely be done by fishing boats and dhows. Fast patrol boats give off a particular signature that gives them away. The mine laying being more covert is a better way to proceed if you want to lay the mines without interference.
2. Any US/NATO warships will effectively trapped in the Persian Gulf for several weeks, at the mercy of the MASSIVE number of mobile Iranian shore to ship missiles (shooting gallery?).
Not quite. The missile shooters still have to find them, target them, and all the while the land based air and ISR assets go into play. This is a combined arms fight, not a battle in a bathtub. There are MPA and other air assets that can assist in location and prosecution of fast missile boats.
3. Iran (like Iraq did) will launch multiple high yield (probably chemical warhead) attacks on Israel, Turkey (Incirklic) & several Gulf States (certainly Bahrain & Saudi Arabia).
This looks mostly wrong. Not gonna shoot Turkey, and probably won't waste ammon on your entire menu of Arabs. Might hit the Saudis if they can show Israelis went with Saudi help. Leaving the rest alone reduces the Iranian political problem. Shooting any of the rest makes their political problem more difficult.

Note: A few locals are likely to have some TBM assets appear from Uncle Sugar. (If that hasn't happened already ... )
4. NO country will use nuclear weapons for fear of the Chinese/Pakistan reaction/response.
Write the sentence like this "NO country will use nuclear weapons" and you might be right. The rest is wind. Pakistan is a bit of a cypher, and I think even they don't know what they might do.
5. Iranian "sleeper cells" in virtually every Western nation will suicide bomb many countries.
Probably so. The era of 4th Generation Warfare began decades ago.
6. Israel will fail to destroy Iranian underground centrifuge facilities without US help with "Bunker busting bombs" & may consider using air dropped tactical nuclear bombs within 48 hours of the first attack.

That's a bit of a lottery, depends on how Iran starts anything, if they start anything. If the Israelis start all this, I am not so sure Uncle Sugar will be in on the initial strike. As to this: may consider using air dropped tactical nuclear bombs within 48 hours of the first attack. Gimme a break.
7. When the US & Israel realise after some 3 days that they have a trapped carrier group & they have taken many losses (especially Israel with the need to AAR) a re-think will occur.
That I doubt.

At this point many NATO nations (Germany, Italy etc come to mind) will have decided to pull out - as the USA did in Libya.
They weren't in in the first place, Sam, based on your narrative.

I am not convinced you understand how combined arms fighting works.
8. "Joe Public" USA decide that the overnight increase in their cost of petrol (which dictates the US economy) doubles or even triples decide to create mayhem on the US streets.
Doubles or triples overnight? I think it will take about a week.
Mayhem in the streets? Hell, SAM, we do that when an NCAA team wins a championship. Water off a duck's back.
9. A toothless UK Government offers a couple of naval minesweepers to the US - but it will take several days to get them there - & several months to clear the mines.
They already have some in the area.

10. In the meantime, since the initial attack by Israel, the Saudi Royal Family have had a lengthy "Pow-Wow" & decided that despite spending several BILLION £'s over the last 30 odd years on Western High Tech A/C, their fighter/bomber pilots are not up to the job - so they will sit tight & do nothing - despite being the only capable air force in the region.

Likely, a load of wankers they are.

So they load their private 747's en-masse & decamp via Malaga airport to their "White House" in Marbella to watch & wait.
Also likely.

11. Israel cannot possibly put ground troops onto Iranian soil. Neither can the US. NATO refuses. It is then up to Iran's neighbours to attack - which they won't
What's the point of putting boots on the ground?
Nobody wants to conquer Iran, Sam, just blow up selected bits and maybe drop a warhead on the forehead of the odd Ayatollah and one windbreaker-but-no-tie wearing president.

Your script doesn't even make a good movie.

[SASless]

Do US politicians have sufficient support to completely cut off Israel (let alone nuke them)? There's an election coming up.


The American People.....strongly support Israel. We do that because of a number of very important reasons. Primarily, we see them as being targeted by Islamic Terrorists and Islamic Fundamentalist regimes....just as we Americans are. That alone will see to it our Politicians do not abandon Israel.

Also....if Israel were to removed the Iranian Nuclear threat...that would benefit our National Security goals likewise if the Israeli's do so it would surely upset the Apple Cart in the Middle East and amongst the many Islamic and Arab nations around the World.

The resulting spike in Oil prices would put the Western economies back into Recession.

Everything argues finding Diplomatic solutions to the problem. Even our CIA and other Intelligence Agencies are saying there is no proof of the Iranians actually building a Nuclear Weapon. That view is challenged by other sources however.

I see this as a case of Willy Waving and Sword Waving.....and in the end....there shall be some sort of peaceful resolution of the crisis. Either Army Dnner Jacket gets the boot by the Ayatollahs, the Iranian People rise up again in protest to the hardships caused by the Sanctions, or it becomes known with certainty there is no Nuclear Weapon program.

If we find there is really a Nuclear Weapon program and it is able to...or very close to being able to field a delivery system....then all bets are off as the repercussions of Iran with a Nuke just does not bear thinking about. The Arab countries in the Middle East will gladly support any effort to remove that threat....and will do whatever is required to mitigate the Oil Price/Supply issue.

The Israelis will get to sit this one out as well.....as they did the Gulf War and it will be Western Powers that eliminate the Iranian Nuclear Weapon Program.

[glad rag]

Personally sasless, I think we'd be better off supporting a Persian regime change and stuff the Arabs....

[Lonewolf_50]

SASless, I have some reservations about the term you use: Western Powers.

It's the second word that poses a problem.
It is plural, which I think is a mistake.

I rather like glad rag's idea about backing a Persian regime change, seeing as it worked so well last time.

Uh, wait a sec ... :}

[racedo]

Personally better off supporting the Persians, getting them to make peace with Israel and tell the Saudi's to go stuff themselves and they on their own and any harm to any Shia's in Saudi will be acted upon.

[TEEEJ]

Sam wrote,

Conclusion?

Sam,
The conclusion is that you would fit right in with all the other conspiracy chaps over at

AboveTopSecret.com - Conspiracy Theories, UFOs, Paranormal, Political Madness, and other "Alternative Topics" (http://www.abovetopsecret.com/)

I think you would like it over there! Enter at your own risk. The place is a madhouse!

You really think that the US pulled out of Libya? Were you following the conflict?

AFRICOM: U.S. Aircraft Still Flying Libya Missions | Defense News | defensenews.com (http://www.defensenews.com/article/20110630/DEFSECT01/106300307/AFRICOM-U-S-Aircraft-Still-Flying-Libya-Missions)

Did you check the Royal Navy website?

NATO exercises | Royal Navy (http://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/The-Fleet/Ships/Patrol-and-Minehunters/Hunt-Class/HMS-Middleton/Diary/NATO-exercises)

[glojo]

Excellent link regarding US contribution and it might suggest how we would NOT have coped without those supporting aircraft. Unfortunately that debate should take place on any of the threads regarding that conflict.

[Lonewolf_50]

I enjoyed the article on the NATO mine hunting exercise, but noted with disappointement that the Turks were not listed as particpants. (Probably due to the Greeks being involved, the usual crap, but may due to local politics with Iran being on their border).

[Thelma Viaduct]

The US&A government and 'world's banking bods are full of Jews, they basically run the show and have more than their fair share of God fearing idealogical religious lunatics/ fanatics. There's no way the spams would leave Israel to fight without their help, let alone nuke one of their own. But beyond all that, the US&A just can't help themselves from bombing the **** out of nations that can't fight back. It's a question of when, not if.

[Hedge36]

The US&A government and 'world's banking bods are full of Jews, they basically run the show and have more than their fair share of God fearing idealogical religious lunatics/ fanatics. There's no way the spams would leave Israel to fight without their help, let alone nuke one of their own. But beyond all that, the US&A just can't help themselves from bombing the **** out of nations that can't fight back. It's a question of when, not if.


Very pious of you. Have you polished up your tinfoil hat lately?

[Heathrow Harry]

hope the mods don't remove that post from Pious

reminds us all that maybe the Zionists aren't as demented as they sometimes seem - he'll be on about the protocols of the Elders of Zion next I guess

[Thelma Viaduct]

Hardly mate, I'm happy to get on with anyone so long as their beliefs don't infringe on me.
I'd say most people in the UK feel the same, not sure wher the Zionist BS is derived from, obviously a bit self concious. The Jews are as much to blame as the Arabs in regards with being able to let their BS religions get in the way of living with others. Arseholes the lot of them and just made worse by US&A backing, much like how they backed the IRA and Afghans, look where it gets them..... The spams have so many friends that they feel the need to have a 'defence' budget greater than the next 99 nations combined, says it all to me.

[Hedge36]

...with being able to let their BS religions get in the way of living with others



Arseholes the lot of them and just made worse by US&A backing



Not that you have any issues with playing nicely with others or anything :D

[Lonewolf_50]

Methinks the pious pilot feeds a lot upon sour grapes.