Cathay Seniority System

[migrant]

Hey guys and girls

Since Cx may be reaching a shortage of first officers soon, rumors have recently started to float around about DEFO (direct entry first officers) in the very near future.

The company is planning a big expansion until 2020 (from 131 to 200+ aircraft / 2600 to 4000+ pilots), with the only limitation being the airport itself, so in my humble opinion, progression may come quicker than some might think!

I would basically like to clarify a couple of things:

1) With my experience wich is 4000 hours plus total, 3500 hours on modern commercial multi-engine, multi-crew aircraft jet (A320 and A330/340), would i easily qualify for DEFO;

2) If successful of the interview process and accepted as a first officer, where would i go in the seniority pool in relation to active second officers. Will i be senior to them throughout progression to command or is it the other way around?

I would greatly appreciate your comments
Thanks in advance

[boxerpilot]

be prepared for the comments that is gonna come fast and furious. you will know what I mean

[SloppyJoe]

Of course you will and should be junior, seniority wise to a 0 time cadet who joined a week before you. His shot at command will be before yours.

Your previous experience would have given you a descent chance at DESO previously but not DEFO. On the crappy contract they will offer, you may have a chance at DEFO in the future.

[migrant]

boxerpilot LOL, i figured...:}

[Capt Toss Parker]

1) With my experience wich is 4000 hours plus total, 3500 hours on modern commercial multi-engine, multi-crew aircraft jet (A320 and A330/340), would i easily qualify for DEFO

hmmm probably not young man you see .. "we" like people with space shuttle time or people with "black project" time from Lockheed Skunkworks.

1000hrs minimum on Hypersonic Aircraft above 20 tones .. some Aurora time should do the trick :ugh:

[migrant]

Of course you will and should be junior, seniority wise to a 0 time cadet who joined a week before you.

I´m sorry to insist but I honestly can´t see how it would be so obvious that someone who is totally released to operate the aeroplane, should be less senior to a guy (or girl), who´s only allowed to actually sit on a pilot´s seat above 20000 feet and has got less bars on his/her shoulders... doesn´t seem to make much sense at all, does it now?

[404 Titan]

migrant

If/when DEFO’s start again, your command when comes up in 15-20 years time will be in seniority order. All the iCadets that joined before you will be senior to you and will have a shot at command ahead of you if they meet the grade. That iCadet who can only be in the seat above FL200 when an SO will have been an FO for about 9-14 years when their shot at command comes up. By that stage they will have as much as 10000 hours on A330/340/350, B747/777 type aircraft. By that stage your prior experience will mean nothing in the whole scheme of things.

[flynhigh]

What bars has anything to do with it:ugh:....they were hired before you. Also just so you know some of those 2 bars guys, have more time and more type than you ...Back when CX was hiring DEFO they wouldn't even look your 4000 Total time for DEFO maybe DESO but not DEFO.

Now lets say you were hire as DEFO today, next month they hired me with 5000 Total time would it be fair if I move up in front of you, cause I have more time and more type rating...

[migrant]

404 Titan

Did you not read my initial statement about the expansion plans?

In 2006 Cathay had 100 aircraft. Six years later it´s 2012 and the fleet has only gone up to 131 planes. That´s 31 a/c in 6 years. In the next 8 years the airline will have acquired its 200th a/c...it´s simple maths.

On a broader scale just look at the indicators about the aviation growth forecast in the asian region in the next decade...time to command at cathay will decrease abruptly. Mark my words.

Yours sincerely

[migrant]

flynhigh

I´m sure you´re familiar with the recent (last 4 years) second officer intake experience levels. Let´s just say that i don´t think you´d find a lot of 5000 hr guys as you quoted.

In regards to seniority, obviously an experienced pilot is hired for a FO position because he is EXPERIENCED. Otherwise he would be hired as a second officer. Having said that, it would only be fair that he/she gets a shot at command before that same second officer.

You can also think of it in terms of DEC jobs. It´s happening now at Emirates. A direct entry captain will be placed ahead of a senior first officer. He goes directly into a different pool. How is that different from SO/FO?

Globalization has definitely opened the markets but the seniority system is a disease that unfortunately is constantly used by management to manipulate pilots and worsen our working conditions. It is actually very comparable to a shepherd tending his flock.

Yours sincerely.

[migrant]

Dan Buster

That is exactly the mentality which i was referring to. So what if your command course is delayed for another year or so because of DEC. Try getting sacked in the US, for instance, as a 45 year old captain and you´ll see where all of your experience will take you. It´s worth nothing... You´d better start praying that some airline accepts you at the bottom again next to guys with acne on their face. I don´t consider that to be fair but that´s only me. Any other skilled professional such as a doctor, lawyer, executive, engineer, etc etc etc, would certenately have a lot more mobility than a pilot and all of that thanks to the seniority system that you so much praise.

Anyway, regardless of the debate we ended up getting into, i truly appreciate the information you guys have given me! Wish you all good luck in your careers and the best landings! :ok:

[404 Titan]

migrant

You sound like you have mistaken me for some wannabe. WRONG. If you want a lesson in CX’s expansion plans and cockpit crew progression times I suggest sunshine you listen up to the people like me who have been here for some time. For the record progression times at CX have not come down since the early 1990’s. In that time CX has gone from about 25 aircraft to 130+. Command times have gone from about 2½ years from DOJ to 12 years. The majority of the 90 odd aircraft on order are replacements for the A340/B744 fleet and older A330’s/B777's. The net effect is that over the next 10 years the fleet will expand by about 40 aircraft based on today’s orders. When you also take into account that CX raised the retirement age 2 years ago from 55 to 65 the upgrades required to crew these 40 odd net new aircraft is significantly reduced. So when people like me tell you time to command will be about 15-20 years we are telling you this from a point of significant inside knowledge.

You also don’t need to lecture to me and others like Dan Buster about the pro’s and con’s of the airline seniority system. Irrespective of my personal views on this subject, the unfortunately reality for you is that CX is a seniority based airline and you will have to wait your turn behind more senior pilots for your command. In 15-20 years time when your command comes up, your previous experience will mean jack sh*t in the whole scheme of things. If you meet the grade you will get a course. If you don’t you won’t. It’s as simple as that.:ugh:

[pill]

Migrant, At 29 its not to late for a career change. Maybe be doctor, lawyer, executive or engineer. I'd go with executive, as with that fcuk everyone else mindset of yours, you'd fit right in, at cathay anyway. Maybe that list is one of the few protections we have, hand cuffs also,but thats what we signed up for.

[migrant]

404 Titan

I don´t really intend or plan to actually go to cathay since i´m quite happy where i am. The reason why i posted this thread was merely out of curiosity.

Unfortunately, with all due respect, you once again just contradicted yourself on your calculations. 100 a/c in approximately 20 years (early 90´s to 2012) is completely different than 70 a/c in 8 years (the plan is 200 a/c in 2020 from reliable sources, notwithstanding the retiring ones).

Even with the retirement age raised up to 65, the market will pick up like crazy in the years to come...it´s all about supply and demand. Time has shown us that the aviation business as cyclical as they come. Don´t forget that `what goes up, must come down´, and the other way around!

Cheers

[404 Titan]

migrant
Unfortunately, with all due respect, you once again just contradicted yourself on your calculations. 100 a/c in approximately 20 years (early 90´s to 2012) is completely different than 70 a/c in 8 yearsYeh it’s chalk and cheese isn’t it? Between 1990 and 2012 CX increased its fleet size from 25 to 131 aircraft or by 424% or if averaged out over 22 years by just over 19% per annum. In the next eight years the net increase in the fleet based on today’s order of 97 aircraft minus 59 retirements of older aircraft i.e. 21 B744’s, 6 B744 BCF’s, 11 A340’s, 5 B772’s, 6 B773, and 10 A330’s will be 29% or about 3¾% per year. Even if we do have 200 aircraft by 2020, that still only represents a 53% increase in fleet size by the end of the decade or about 6½% per year. Or to put it even more simply for you, our expansion over the last 22 years has been 3x faster than the best case scenario will be over the next 8 years. Even with such expansion over the last 22 years commands have gone from 2½ years to 12 years from DOJ.
Even with the retirement age raised up to 65, the market will pick up like crazy in the years to come
That comment is based on nothing more than your personal opinion. Most would argue the next 20 years will be the toughest for the world economy since the great depression. As someone who has studied the Great Depression in detail I suggest you do the same. The events of 1929-1938 are repeating themselves to a "T".

[migrant]

That comment is based on nothing more than your opinion. Most will argue the next 20 years will be the toughest for the world economy since the great depression. As someone who has studied the Great Depression in detail I suggest you do the same. The events of 1929-1938 are repeating themselves to a "T".

It´s good you mention that since I´ve studied technical analysis and charting in university. Those indicators should only be used for short term predictions (i.e. daytrading, swingtrading). I´m basing my opinion on fundamental analysis.

However look up elliot waves (one of the most reliable long term indicators) and you´ll see that a third wave (the most extreme one) in the present series is imminent (prob happening somewhere mid 2012). First downward wave was in 2008 second was soon after. These three are similar to the 1929-1932 series. Therefore we´ll be experiencing rock bottom really soon and from then on there should be a steady continuous upward movement which obviously will be most severe in promising markets, BRIC contries - Brasil, Russia, India and CHINA (Hong Kong included).

I rest my case about my thoughts for growth and quicker progressions, i think you´re wayyyyy offcourse on your "15-20 year upgrade" predictions for a new joiner. No way...it will be more like 7-8. However once again only time will tell us!

[404 Titan]

migrant

The more you talk the less you answer the questions. You sound like you’re from the third floor. How about you debunk my figures rather than dribble on about some economic theory. I could tell you why Elliot Wave is both right and wrong until the cows come home but this isn’t the time or the place. You need to explain to us why you think commands will come down over the next 8 years with approximately 6½% growth per annum when over the last 22 years with about 19% per annum growth we have seen commands go from 2½ years to 12 years from DOJ. “PLEASE EXPLAIN”.

[711]

http://www.pprune.org/fragrant-harbour/473028-f-o-life.html

Migrant, your predictions are so flawed, I wouldn't know where to start..

[migrant]

Migrant, your predictions are so flawed, I wouldn't know where to start..

I do..you can start by thinking outside the box and doing some research instead of just looking up prune..aviation is not a forum...

[404 Titan]

migrant

How about you answer my question I asked you in post #20. You have taken a very adamant position but have produced absolutely no evidence to back it up. You need to tell us why commands will come down over the next 8 years with growth forecast to be no more than 6½% per annum when over the last 22 years with growth just over 19% per annum commands have gone from 2½ years to 12 years from DOJ?

[Roger Greendeck]

I'm curious as to why Cathay, as a seniority based airline, introduced DEFO a few years back. Am I right in thinking that it was because they did not have enough SO's suitable for upgrade? If so what are the minimums required for a SO to be eligible for progression to FO?

[404 Titan]

Roger Greendeck
Am I right in thinking that it was because they did not have enough SO's suitable for upgrade?
In a nut shell, yes, that is the reason the company used for DEFO’s. It was immaterial to the company that a considerable number of the DEFO’s had less experience than the DESO’s they were bypassing. The only reason the SO’s weren’t “suitable” for upgrade was because they hadn’t been assessed by the company not because they were unsuitable. Unfortunately there was and still is a provision in out COS which allows the company to employ DEFO’s when there aren’t any “suitable” SO’s for upgrade. The company used this provision about six years ago during a period of rapid expansion but also cynically to try and fill the bases. There is though no provision in our COS to employ DEC. In the past though the company got around this by having a separate CX freighter company and offering commands out of seniority on the freighter fleet but on considerably inferior COS. The company as far as I recall would offer these positions first internally and if there was still positions available they then employed people externally. The freighter fleet has now though been brought back into the rest of the CX fleet so rapid commands and DEC on the CX freighter fleet now isn’t possible. They can and have used the joint venture Air China Cargo and Air Hong Kong as a vehicle for DEC.