Airline Industry: what are the prospects?

[TheFirstDohrnPilot]

Hey everyone. OK so, I have done a lot of research into which FTO I would like to attend. And it turns out that the more expensive ones pretty much guarantee you a place with an airline. And I don't know if they are being truthful about the airline industry, but they claim that the demand for airline pilots is set to soar over the next decade and beyond... When doing some research on Google, I found the same picture...

What I would like to know is what you guys think? Is it even worth while (and money) to start my training now? Keep in mind it would take me quite a few years to get to the airline stage, if at all :}

[FlyingSportsman]

Exact same position as you, quite daunting am I right?

pretty much guarantee you a place with an airline.
You have summed it up it right there, pretty much. They have no obligation to find you a job and at the end of the day its up to you to impress employers. Sure, people like OAA will have contacts, and even contracts with airlines, but don't expect to have a job 100%.


demand for airline pilots is set to soar over the next decade and beyond

Think about the term airline pilots- second officers, first officers, captains, training captains. Sure, there is going to be a demand for airline pilots- circulation will always happen, people retiring, moving company e.t.c but it is exaggerated in the news. Take a look at BA, 800 new pilots over the next 5 years. In the capacity you will apply, 400 places over 5 years. That's already chances halved, now consider the number of applicants. Essentially what I'm saying is, the demand for 'Cadet' pilots will always be filled. There is so many us wanting to fulfill our dreams, and airlines will milk that. The real demand will be for experienced senior FO's & Captains, so take these reports with a pinch of salt.

What I would like to know is what you guys think?

Being on here for a while, i have asked questions like this many times (my last thread maybe just a week ago) but really, the answer has to come from you. If you can truly say you are willing to spend around £90000 (assuming integrated) face the prospect of having a huge loan to pay back with no airline job, being forced to far away places to find a job (god forbid P2F)
and still enjoy it then I can't question your motivation.

Having said all this, you may get lucky and walk into a job a day out of training- I'm not trying to put you off. Plan for the worst, not for the best. Only a quick browse on here reveals a few who I'm sure will tell you not to, and those who will tell you to do it. Some people on here have a chip on their shoulder, take this only as a chat with a friend if you will. We're not airline HR, we're not god, we can't tell you how to plan your life.

Would like to wish you the best of luck, and maybe see you in a crew room somtime :E

[TheFirstDohrnPilot]

Hey. Ye, you're right it is daunting! :sad:

I guess I would go the modular route, as it is cheaper. And also, I forgot to say on first thread - the demand for pilots is set to rise mainly because of airlines expanding their fleets of aircraft. I know that isn't much to go on, but it does give a bit more hope...right? haha
And yes, I am willing to spend a lot of money (I'm not rich lol) and leave home to find a job. This is because it's better than staying here, and you see, I don't really enjoy living where I do now so travelling wouldn't really be that big a problem for me.
Appreciate your response, and yes, maybe we will meet in a crew room - or perhaps on the flight deck of a Boeing 747 :}

[Reverserbucket]

FirstDohrn,

No FTO can guarantee you a job. Even in the days of full sponsorship the sponsoring airlines did not guarantee a position on completion of training. That said, your chances of successfully finding that illusive first job can be helped by training with an established FTO with a proven record of good quality and standards; indeed recruiters have been known to recruit from schools that they themselves trained at. As far as the market is concerned, there has always been talk of an impending shortage of flightcrew for as long as I've been in the industry. I was discussing this with a former colleague currently working for a large European carrier and he remarked that in the country his airline is based there are approximately 3000 Professional Licence holders who are not working as pilots at the moment. And that number is going up every day. I know a sizeable FTO where not one graduate has found a flying job in over 2 years which certainly says something about the current market.

My advice would be not to go down the modular path if you want the best chance of success. Integrated or better still a sponsored MPL course (they have to be in any event). If I was embarking on this today I would be focussing on BA and if that doesn't work then a structured path to Ryanair or Easyjet via an integrated course. The only people I know who have found work recently have done so by the latter means. It costs money but will greatly enhance your chances. I would also think long and hard about a degree. You don't have to look very far in this industry before you find pilots who have lost their jobs and often more than once in their careers with little by the way of valuable skills or meaningful qualifications to take elsewhere outside of flying. Not having something recognisable and useful to fall back on is something a number of my colleagues regret.

[FlyingSportsman]

haha, its like talking to myself! Thinking exactly the same to you- except I definitely want to go an integrated- OAA probably.

It does give us some hope, only problem is the people willing to do P2F and pay for their own TR's e.t.c. Makes it harder for those with less funds :}

[TheFirstDohrnPilot]

You're right, Reverserbucket, it depends on yourself and the contacts the FTO has. Such a shame that the industry seems to be doing rather poorly.
That said, were you referring to the UK industry or European or global?
And FlyingSportsman, I'm glad to hear we're in a similar situation. There are many of us young folk out there, experiencing the same dilemma as us two haha real shame :(

[Reverserbucket]

UK and near Europe. You have youth on your side - plan carefully.

[TheFirstDohrnPilot]

I see, Reversebucket. But do you think if I do my PPL and then gradually progress through the stages (CPL, fAtPL, IR, ME, MCC, etc) that it's possible to find a job with a large airline? Because a lot of people say that the integrated courses are the only way to have a chance at getting a job, but I think (and I've heard this from some other people too) that going the modular route has its benefits...when it comes to finding a job. Do you agree?

Or are you sticking with your previous statement about MPL?

And yes, youth is on our side - thank god :)

[Reverserbucket]

FirstDohrn,

PPL through modular CPL/IR/MCC is certainly an option - cheaper and perhaps more suitable depending on your circumstances. I have plenty of colleagues who instruct and examine on B747-400s and A340's who worked their way up through the traditional 'self-improver' route. Don't let anyone tell you integrated is the only way however it does provide a relatively fast track means to achieving your goal. Remember that the objective has to be to get a job as soon as possible after you complete training both from a currency perspective (the more current you are the better your prospects securing a job) and from the point of view of repaying your training loan (unless fortune has blessed you with a lottery win or a sizeable inheritance). The truth is that the well trodden path of the self improver usually required time spent as an instructor and then flying something smaller than an A320/B737 - an apprenticeship if you will. There just aren't the number of right-hand seats in the U.K. any longer to support this as there are relatively few turboprop jobs these days available to the low houred guy's - the FTO's have been busy providing those left with steely eyed, square jawed graduates from their integrated courses for the past number of years. Sadly, the days of AirUK and the like have largely gone away.

You are taught early in aviation how to mitigate risk and although there are options available to you in your training I would suggest that providing you have the aptitude, integrated offers less risk in terms of securing employment as an entry level First Officer over modular. My point about your relative youth was that right now the market is pretty poor and with E.U. carriers going bust fairly regularly at the moment I would look towards university and preferably one with a UAS squadron attached to it until things settle down. Alternatively, try and get some work experience in a flying club or a weekend job at an airfield in ops - an early demonstration of interest will go a long way in an interview.

Good Luck!

[TheFirstDohrnPilot]

OK, thanks for that! Very helpful indeed :ok:

[BerksFlyer]

Take everything FTOs say with a huge pinch of salt. Remember that they need people to train as it keeps them in business. They will tell you exactly what you want to hear. The fact is, now is simply not the time to train. I know it's not what you want to hear, but that is the truth of the matter.

A question to ask yourself is 'do I want to fly' or 'do I want to be an airline pilot'. Because that will greatly affect what mode of training you should persue. It is true that integrated is more likely to get you an FO gig on an airliner. That said, there is way more to flying than just airliners. If you were to train modular it is likely to take longer to become an airline FO, though you can get there in the end.

It does give us some hope, only problem is the people willing to do P2F and pay for their own TR's e.t.c. Makes it harder for those with less funds

One could argue that going to an expensive integrated school is P2F. Afterall, you're paying a huge premium to have a better chance of getting a job.

Personally, unless it's an airline tagged scheme, I would forget about training integrated. Especially now.

[Ollie23]

One could argue that going to an expensive integrated school is P2F. Afterall, you're paying a huge premium to have a better chance of getting a job.

Personally, unless it's an airline tagged scheme, I would forget about training integrated. Especially now.

Most sensible thing I've read on here for a while.

I would suggest that the pre requisite for embarking on a speculative self sponsored integrated course these days would be the full course cost and the price of a type rating, so circa £120k. If you can't afford to write off that sort of money (or pay it back via another income source if you borrow it) then you shouldn't even be contemplating it.

However if you have the money I don't think it's ever been easier to fast track yourself to a jet job.

[TheFirstDohrnPilot]

You're right Berks, that isn't great news :sad: But, on the other hand, that is why I would do modular (I know it isn't as quick to a job, as you guys have stated) because you can stop training at any time, meaning that I could do my basic licences and then when the industry gets better jump back into the game and hit the ground running (or crawling). Nonetheless, I feel it would be an advantage to do modular at a time like this.