OK So who's step is faltering??

[Desk-pilot]

Anyone else out there about to embark on ab-initio training only to get a case of the jitters over the job prospects??

Desk-pilot

[sydneyc]

Desk-pilot,

Yes, as you know!

Am replying to your post to kick start this a little. My view is that it is just impossible to call most employment markets, especially aviation.

There are convincing arguments either way. Whilst BA shed jobs, there is no doubt the Euro low cost operators are eating into their routes, so arguably, BA's loss is easyJet's (plus others) gain. This is only an example, but it highlights one possible development - many agree that there will be an overall expansion of air traffic, although the market may continue to fragment with carriers becoming more and more route/price specific. The impact on this development for employment depends upon where you stand. Overall, the logic would state that there will be a need for more pilots overall, but individual carriers may well need to trim heads to exploit their increasingly niche markets.

As to what it may mean for low time newly qualified's, who knows? I'm an economist by training but not by profession so am happy to be shot down in flames over this theory.

Reading it back, I'm not even sure if I've given any sort of answer.

sydneyc

[Nishko]

You and everybody else!

Either do it or don't do it, but you won't do yourself and favours by hovering in the 'pain zone'!

If you really want it, I don't need to tell you what to do. Dive in and ask questions later.

Good luck Sir.

Nish (With lots of debt, but happy!)

[EGDR]

Better to regret what you did than you did not.

Remember , in the words of an old master, - 'Do or do not there is no dithering'

[bow5]

work hard and play hard and hope to hell that you make it.

I know what you mean though. :eek:

[Desk-pilot]

Thanks for the replies guys - I'm almost certainly going to confirm my SFT place in the next week or so - it is after all the only job I have ever wanted to do and I certainly don't want to spend the rest of my working life not enjoying my career as I have the past 10 years.

I suppose it's only natural to have a moments trepidation when about to take the plunge and I have a number of personal issues which are proving difficult to sort out at present.

Desk-pilot - on the hold for departure...

[sydneyc]

People really think about this. The more I read, the more I think many people have a romantic view of flying. This is a business like any other and is prone to economic factors. In fact more so than many - aviation is a service industry and severely cyclical.

Great, go chase your dream, after all you've only one life etc, but for God's sake don't go careering into something with your head stuck in the sand with regards to post-training opp's.

Desk Pilot has posted an interesting subject and Rich Tea seems to agree. It would be good to gather some more educated and realistic opinions rather than this constant "chase dreams at all costs" theme.

[FlyingGiraffe]

Deskpilot, from your last post:
not enjoying my career as I have the past 10 years
it seems as though you do have another skill to fall back on should the worst happen. Personally, I think this is vital and there are still too many people out there selling their soul at HSBC for a career in the clouds.

There's been much written about the current economic climate and I'm certainly the first to admit that I'm no expert; but simply from my own experience (currently redundant, albeit voluntarily) I know there's no assurance in anything.

Flying is seen as a romantic career and that's a view that's not going away soon. The harsh reality is that there are real, commercial, money-making corporations out there who's first line of cutbacks is the workforce. It's encouraging to see BA has specifically not cut back from the flight crew, but one can one speculate at how much longer they can justify 56000 worldwide employees in these hard times. (Incidentally, what's the percentage of those that are flight crew... I've heard about 3000, so that's about 5%..?)

Having said all that, I'm about to head off to Jerez to start an ab-initio course with BAe. I've had 8 years in the IT industry, my own house for 6 years (no prizes for guessing where the funding's coming from!) and a very supportive family. Who knows what state the airline industry will be in at the end of '02, but I'd like to think I'm well prepared for the worst... obviously I'm hoping it won't come to that and I'm gonna work damn hard to make sure it doesn't, but I'm under no illusions of "falling into" a right-hand seat in 15 months' time.

Just my 2¢ worth...

[Desk-pilot]

This is turning into a very interesting thread - it is fascinating to get a feel for how others are approaching this.

I agree wholeheartedly it is reassuring to have another skill to fall back on should the whole thing go belly up - in my case IT and Project Management, I'm just not sure how favourably exercising that option after a few months unemployment would be seen by prospective pilot recruiters. I also suspect the disappointment of having to re-enter 'civvy street' would be a bit much to take. Personally I'd rather try to eek out a living as a flying instructor I think for a year or so after my course. If I'm still not getting anywhere then I think I'd try and get a job as an IT contractor to pay off all the debt!

I am pretty certain however that as a Graduate of an intensive flying course you are at your most marketable in the first few/6 months after Graduation when your skills are still highly tuned. The only way to maintain that level of currency is to get a flying job of one sort or another.

If you accept the argument above then timing your exit from college to coincide with the next upswing in the market affords you the best chance of being hired.

However domestic considerations also influence the decision such as age/future plans on kids etc.

Desk pilot
TOWER "Desk-pilot 903 will you move off the God-dammed hold and line up for 27L?"

[sydneyc]

I agree with you DP, there are some interesting posts coming out. It can only be a good thing that people are being honest.

FlyingG you say that the romanticism of flying will not go away and I agree with you, but I've a question to ask that may ruffle a few feathers:

How many people out there on this forum are seeing training for a CPL/IR as a substitute for not securing fastjet training with the RAF? I know they all have 2 wings and go up and down pretty much the same way, but the other similarities are few and far between. I know there a lot of ex-mil pilots now flying commercially who frequent this website so they are prefectly placed to kick me into touch. But my family has had 2 ex fastjet pilots move into commercial flying. And the both hated it.

My point here is that whilst they both did chase their dream to hare down a Welsh Valley at X00knts and then stop on a sixpence (yes, both Harrier pilots) they saw commercial flying in the airlines as a meal ticket. Nothing more. It was not chasing a dream. There people on this site who liken comm' training to some sort of Top Gun programme, but I think you are all going to be disappointed. People have to realistic as to what this career means. It is as much about a certain lifestyle than about the actual job of flying. The continuing motivating forces for many are the money, relative security, not pushing paper around a desk and not having to commute into town on the 0720 service.

As my family members say, pushing the envelope and tolerances of a civil a/c doesn't go down well with the businessman in 4c who promptly spills his coffee and gets clocked on in the head by a bottle of Drambuie.

All that said, if your dream is to steer a considerable piece of hardware through increasingly busy skies and ensure that pax don't notice the flying, then get in a nice car and head back to your home that is bigger than all your friends' who still have to live in London or the big cities, then this may well be your dream.

[bow5]

Just read my last post on here and it seems to be one of the 'cloud in the sky' posts. Don't really know why I said it.

The 'pilot shortage' that is banded around so often seems to be yesterdays news. Most of the literature concerning this shortage was produced in 1997 and 1998. If there was such a desparate shortage as some sources would have you believe, then why are airlines stopping sponsorship and why are some cutting back on recruitment?

In my opinion, for people in our position it is decision time. I read in the paper this morning yet more bad news about the US and Japanese economies. It doesn't need saying that commercial aviation depends upon a strong econonmy. When you are looking at spending x amount of money on training for a career with no guarentee of employment then a downturn in world economic fortunes and forecast is not what you want to hear.

Going back to answer the basis of this thread.....While aviation does have a certain romantic side to it, it is at the end of the day, an industry that suffers like anything else. If the economy goes t**ts up then those of us who borrowed 50k+ from a bank could find ourselves in a whole world of trouble. If the aviation industry is hit then it is more than likely the economy would be in deep trouble. 50k could suddenly look like a 100k when people are trying to pay it back in a struggling economy.

I think everyone who does ATPL training must have trepidations about spending that kind of money. If they didn't they must be either very rich or totally mad. Everyone on here wants to be an airline pilot but to go blindly into something like this without the proper sense of perspective would be utterly disasterous.

bow5.

[scroggs]

I have never subscribed to the notion of a 'pilot shortage', ether in the past, now, or in the future. Such shortages as there are, or will be, are of experienced, type-rated jet pilots. There is no liklihood of there being a demand for all the 200-hour fATPLs the system can churn out - and that's when all is well!
The next 12-24 months are likely to be very hard for any industry that offers a luxury product - that is, something that most people don't need. Holidays and foreign travel most certainly come under that banner, and that's probably 50% of all the air traffic out of UK. The rest is business travel, much of which is not strictly necessary and a lot of which is more expensive than it needs to be (at the choice of the businessman, it has to be said). Businesses are already retrenching, and the business travel sector has shrunk and moved down-market as a result. Consumers haven't yet been seriously worried by the prospects of unemployment, so the holiday market has held up well, but that won't last. With the unremitting cries of 'RECESSION' from all the media, consumers will start to rein in their spending and the service industries will start to hurt - and aviation will be in serious pain!
If the underlying world economy is in fact fairly sound, and I think for the most part it is, then businesses will soon realise that they can actully afford to invest to chase future profits and the seige mentality will lift in a relatively short time - say 8-12 months. Business travel will pick up again in the same timescale. The consumer will allow another 6 months or so of improving news to go by before he/she starts loosening the purse-strings, and we start getting the leisure customers back. So I think we're looking at a 12-18 month slowdown, during which jobs will be scarce.
However, God help us all if they start discovering fundamental problems with major economies (like they have in Japan - they've been in recession or stagnation for 10 years!). Keep your fingers crossed!

[The Islander]

Does the prospect of recession tip the balance in favour of modular training plus FI rating if money is tight? I could just about afford the integrated course at SFT, but not the FI rating as well if a job was not forthcoming. I would then be well and truly stuck. Would it be better to spend my money on modular + FI and have the option of deferring the IR and MCC if the airlines suspend recruitment?

If there are no or few opportunities available in the next 12 - 18 months is it also likley that what opportunities do appear will require a bucketful of hours?

Perhaps the moderators could help here. For a cadet starting training in the next few months and planning to qualify approx. 12 months later, do the current economic circumstances favour the cheaper modular route plus FI rating, for the reasons I've mentioned? It seems to me that if you can secure good passes in ground exams and flight tests, the choice between modular and integrated becomes academic, in which case might as well pick the cheaper/flexible option?? Of course, it all becomes academic if there are no jobs.

Having written this I still say good luck D-P. If I could afford to do an integrated course and have some cash left over I would, but there you go! You're in good position D-P if you can afford both the integrated course & FIC. Whatever happens, don't look back mate, it's the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end :)

Cheers

[ 09 September 2001: Message edited by: The Islander ]

[scroggs]

Inevitably as the market tightens up, the employers will be more choosy about who they employ. At the bottom of the market, where you guys are trying to get in, relevant hours will become the deciding factor. I don't mean 1500 C152 hours, but those guys with significant complex single or twin time, current IFR experience etc. You get the drift. Obviously, the nearer a new employee is to the required finished article on hiring, the better.
You may have a point in saying that a modular, flexible approach might be more appropriate in these circumstances. Do remember, however, that we are speculating. The jobs aren't turned off instantly, and the airline requirements don't get tougher overnight - these things take a little time. It's an evolutionary thing - but keep your eyes open and watch the ads carefully.

[bruce88]

Well guys & gals, I'm in the fortunate position where I hate my job that much that I don't worry about leaving it and the associated uncertainties.

As the saying goes, If you want something badly enough you'll get it.
I personaly think that's crap.

But you only live once and you don't want to live the rest of your short, sorry life, thinking.. What If?....
If it all goes belly up , at least you can justify to yourself that you had a go .. Then go do something else.

Onward and upward.
Goodbye house. Hello debt and unemployment.

Jim

(I appreciate the above may not be factualy very useful)

[bow5]

Going off on a slight tangent (but not too much), i'd be very interested to know how many people here have some form of self-funding for an ATPL. Obviously, by self-funding I mean a tangible asset such as a house or the required money saved in the bank. If so, how old are you?

Obviously, if the job market does go for a burton then the people who are largely self-funded will in a far more favourable position than those, like me (and I know there are plenty of us), who are currently looking largely towards the HSBC for solice.

If there are more people getting the money first and then doing the training then maybe the rest of us should re-consider our plans.

[skysoarer]

I think what it comes down to is:
If your seriously going to start training now then hope that you ride out the economic storm while you are training and hope the job market is promising for graduates when you finish; and hope that your FTO doesn't fold while you are training IF things get rough...

I must admit I don't fancy the idea of being sponsored at the moment with the knowledge that your course maybe cancelled if anything serious happens with this slowdown. After all it happened overnight with the Gulf War. That said, if offered, I still wouldn't turn down a place. Prepared to crash & burn if justified or you think I'm wrong, I'm uncertain at the moment.

SS

[The Greener Grass]

I say you should neither be too negative nor too positive about job prospects. Really it is as much to do with the person you see in the mirror in the morning that ultimately decides your fate.

I do agree with Scroggs that this pilot shortage thing is a bit of a myth. There will never be a shortage of 200hr fAtpl holders whilst people are prepared to spend up to 70k on their own training. Then it is supply and demand, and obviously the former would be far greater than the latter (in the short term) if the recessional pressure bites hard.

I used to think along the lines of yes it would be good to walk into a job with 200 hours. HELLO WAKE UP!!! Yes we have all read the people posting here who have walked into their 737’s on low hours, but they are the exceptions to the rule. They do show that it can be done, if a whole lot of circumstances happen to be right. Of course nobody bothers every time they get the PFO, as these would rapidly become dull to read. The only luck involved for them is that they have timed their training to perfection to coincide with a marketplace desperate for good low hour candidates. This will not be the case for much longer many people say.

I suggest anybody contemplating this venture need to plan for, as a minimum, a year’s worth of instruction after licence issue and if you cannot tolerate this do not get involved, as you will be taking a huge risk.
I appreciate that not every commercial pilot wants to step back into a light aircraft during his or her time off, but personally I feel that this is an excellent way to maintain the raw seat of the pants flying experience. My attitude may change in due course, but I can see PPL instruction being a very enjoyable activity as an aside to commercial flying, which offers a completely different set of challenges. A modern pilot’s role is becoming more and more a logistics manager, and I would also like to keep the raw skills honed. Let’s face it you can’t do stall turns in a 737!

So don’t knock instruction. Have a think about what you want to achieve. I used to be of the walk straight into job attitude. I now am really looking forward to doing instruction; think how rewarding it will be to teach your skills to others.

You cannot control the world economy. You can make sure you are suitable for the job you are going for. Why not try the sponsorships if you are young enough – if nothing else you will find out how you fare in the world of psychometrics, which you will end up needing to be good at if your are to get ahead of Joe Average. If not then consider Gapan. Remember 50k is a great commitment. Do you have a desk job you could do maybe even part time, or work as a consultant, when you have qualified to bolster the finances? If you have passed through all these checks then you are going to be in a far better position than many.

World aviation will continue to grow. Long-term prospects are excellent. Ride through the (hopefully) short-term recession, and endeavour to be one of the best candidates out there, not just another.

Bow5, in short I will be more self-funded than I will borrow, as I was saving up for an imaginary house. I don’t see any reason why borrowing the money should disadvantage you except maybe a few more sleepless nights. I assume that you are able to borrow as much money as you would need? I do admire you courage though – it is a hell of a burden to take on. Not being airline material will be a far bigger hindrance IMHO.

I leave you with this.
“A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty”. (Sir Winston Churchill)

Happy flying.

[skysoarer]

TGG; I agree with you. Personally I quite fancy the prospect of being an instructor, originally in gliders but if the needs must I would, given the chance, instruct in power. It'd be something I'd think about once had finalised a training plan, etc etc... I guess its all a risk anyway so, as you say, you can't be too optimistic or pesimistic.

SS

[RVR800]

Its not as bad now as when Debonair went bust a year ago - many unemployed type rated pilot desperate for a job oh and AB airlines

This jam yesterday thing is tosh.
There is no jam and there never was.

I am not an economist but Britain is nowhere near a recession according to the experts
and we are well placed for the future.

The biggest danger is we all talk ourselves into one (SCROGGS)

IMF and Ecomomists agree..

Read this Sunday Times extract if you dont believe me

Forecasters are still generally upbeat about Britain. While the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised down its prediction for growth this year to 2%, and forecasters in general have come down to about that level from 2.5% or 2.6% a year ago, this is in the context of a halving of world growth. Britain is expected to outperform America, Japan and euroland.

Next year, if anything, is even more surprising. Consensus expectations for growth in Britain have been edging higher, while those for the world have slumped. The IMF has Britain growing by 2.4% next year.

If it is right, Gordon Brown will be able to chalk up another victory on the "no more boom and bust" slate.

As for Japan its very sad their post war boom
seems to have come to an end. Remember the
70s and 80s they were doing so well and we were doing badly now its OUR TURN to do
well

..Just keep clear of the euro..
The French could elect to join the
'sterling zone' - sorry
couldnt resist that

[ 10 September 2001: Message edited by: RVR800 ]

[bow5]

I'd be more than happy to be a flying instructor after doing ATPL training. Obviously the pay's pants but as a job it still beats the living hell out of an office. The problem, as far as I see it, is that airlines, in the majority of cases, regard 152 and PA28 hours as worthless and irrelevant.
I know instructors who have amassed 1500 hours instructing and airlines have said it's no good for them.
As far as my situation goes, I can borrow upto about 20k from family (for which I count myself damn lucky) so depending upon where I decide to train i'll be looking to borrow in the region of 20-30k.

It's a toughie.

[Red Snake]

Don't knock the instructor route. It's way better than doing no flying at all - it'll keep you current, build hours (may be not the best hours, but better than staying stuck at 285 total). It will also help keep you in the network - the single most important factor in getting that first job. Most flying & gliding clubs are frequented by airline pilots - get to know them!

I spent many years as an instructor in the recession-laden early 90s. And every job I've had since then has been through contacts, not mass CV mailings (but do that too!). I got my first airline job with 1500 hours, almost all instructing hours in C152, PA28 etc. It's still much better than 285 total & no longer current.

[scroggs]

RVR,
I'm sorry, I'm not going to take all the blame for the recession, if it happens! However, a few quid says my prognosis is closer to the eventual outcome than yours. Unless there is some positive economic news in the next few weeks, consumer spending will reduce markedly, and a recession is then pretty much inevitable - for a while. The IMFs growth predictions seem to be based on 20-20 hindsight, rather than any intelligent analysis of economic activity. OK, I'm a pilot, not an economist, but it's spooky how the IMF reduces its growth predictions each time a new set of bad results are announced - and these are for accounting periods that ended some months ago. My own airline was in profit for the year April '00 to April '01, but we were almost certainly losing money by the end of that period, and it's got worse since. BA's results, announced quaterly, reflect the same trend.
The fact is that trading conditions for the service industries, which have held up well previously, are now very difficult. Consumer confidence is being affected. Industrial confidence is lower than it's been for many years. No-one's investing, thus few supplier companies can expect to make a profit. Therefore they will cut their costs - by reducing workforces, among other things, and consumer confidence will take another hit. It's a pattern that's been played out many times before, and it's reasonably well understood - although no-one seems to know how to stop it!
Inflation and interest rates are low, so it's unlikely that there will be many large company failures - they will be able to afford to reschedule debts without them becoming unmanagable, and the banks are likely to be fairly benevolent in these conditions.
The most worrying aspect of this slowdown is that the US, Europe, Asia and Japan are all suffering in synch. That's very unusual; normally as one part of the world slows, another grows, and opportunities continue. This time it's going to be difficult for companies to make money anywhere in the world for a while.
But it will recover, probably sooner rather than later, but it'll be a fairly tentative recovery because of the lack of bright spots in the world economy. I don't subscribe to the '5 years of gloom' philosphy, which seems to me to be as irrational as the caims for the 'new world economy' were 2 years ago.

[FMC=MC2]

Here's my tuppence worth,

What else do I want to do.....nowt.

Will I get a job..................?

Shall I try...............oh yes!

Good luck all.

[The Greener Grass]

Bow5, roger what you say. Ideally you would want to graduate to IMC/IR/Multi instructing after you have done many hours of PPL instructing. Obviously more difficult to come by. Do any current/past instructors care to comment, e.g. WWW et al? I am not sure of the minima for IR instructing e.t.c?

Usually the person is as relevant a factor as what quality of hours they have, else why do high hour on type captains get turned away from jobs?

I do therefore agree with Red Snake, that any hours are better than nothing, and you must put yourself at the top of the desirable pile.

[ 11 September 2001: Message edited by: The Greener Grass ]

[The Greener Grass]

Oh dear oh dear. Have just reread my last post, after returning from the pub on Monday 10th September. I thought rather than obsolescing this thread it may be best to resurrect it and try and band around some ideas for debate.

I have noted the contents of WWW's 'Sticky' thread and this does make for some pretty scary reading. At present, clearly the north Atlantic operators will bear the brunt of the pain. BA may well follow suit with job losses. When it will become desperate for us wannabes is when (if) the domestic and European operators begin to shed jobs. This is the 4-year or whatever scenario that WWW envisages, and I have to say for all the optimism in the world, this may become the case.

So what does Joe Wannabe do? There is no point burying one's head in the sand and pushing on regardless.

Those of you who really want to fly now as a career, because you 'hate your job that much' need to find another one for the time being. :( :( Sorry, but with no sponsorships going ahead now, and little chance of a full time job after a 1 year ab-initio course this must be your best option?

I suggest (and this is not the place for that time old argument) that the balance has swung firmly in favour of the modular student for those brave souls wishing to start a course. Why? 2K for ground school taking a good year or so (distance learning). This buys time to see whether the suspension of your dream is the only option. You then have time to wait until you commit to CPL/IR etc., which is what hurts. I have heard conflicting figures for timescale for this, perhaps somebody can provide the definite answer, but after finishing ground school it is in the several year domain I believe. Somebody please??

Those about to commit to an ab-initio course, then at least wait 6 months for the dust to settle and reassess the world. It just may not end up as bad as the 'expert analysts' are talking up. OR THEY MAY BE SPOT ON.

I had written 'a year's worth of instruction'. Hopelessly inadequate now. My suggestion is to plan on part time instructing for as long as it takes the industry to brighten up. I hope somewhere in that period to enter (full time) commercial instruction, although of course the demand there will be minimal as well. The hours gained instructing will not be as important as the time elapsing whilst gaining the hours, as the aviation industry bounces back.

As the search facility (indeed all of Pprune access) is difficult at present, I would once again ask WWW and other instructors to comment on especially their stories for PPL and commercial instructing. I.e. what hours you had when you changed to commercial e.t.c. and how difficult the job was to come by (then)!

Any other thoughts on this are welcome. Sorry not to be my usual optimistic self. :(

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Well as you ask.

I got my PPL instructors job with 400hrs in April 1999 and I was replacing a chap who died in a CFIT incident. I was local and had been hassling for a job some 2 years prior to getting the rating.

I got my Commercial instructing job about 9 months later with just over 1,000 hrs and a newly minted IR.

12 months later I got the airline job.

The problem at the moment is that potentially all the self sponsored cadets graduating will not find work. About 75% will get instructor ratings after 6 - 9 months of fruitless searching for work. Which means then end of paid PPL flight instruction.

It then comes down to who lives closest to th airfield an is willing to wash the bosses car.

Harsh but true.

WWW

[The Greener Grass]

In answer to the original thread title - mine is beginning to a little bit. Well at least the timescale is rapidly increasing!, but I will not let it break me.

So in summary then it appears you need to be able to do virtually full time instruction for nothing, and have a handsomely paid job for working 2 days a week. That should be easy to arrange! :(

Thanks for your honesty anyway WWW. As I said before it may look a little less suicidal in the medium term. Let's all hope so.

[Desk-pilot]

As the starter of the thread I thought I'd just chuck my four-penneth in again.

I've decided not to go for an integrated in the short term but to keep the situation under review and carry on working in my utterly boring desk job for the time being!

I might consider doing a PPL over the next year gradually because at least then I will be flying even if it's only 2 hours a month!

I can't believe that a few crazies in the Middle East have scuppered my chances again! I got to final stage with BA in 1991 and then the Gulf War broke. Wish my eyesight was better - if it was I'd apply for the RAF and teach them a lesson!

Sincerest condolences to all affected.

Desk-pilot

[aged]

There are a lot of us in the Sh*t. I am currently working my 3 months notice that I handed in about 2 weeks ago. That had been on the basis of full time training from January. Ah well.

In the immediate future, the biggest question is probably what is going to happen re. WW3. Whether I go fly in January can wait a wee while.

And I'm writing this from the Middle East. Good time to be an expat earning the cash to learn to fly!

[scroggs]

All bets are off, at least for the forseeable future. Predictions are very difficult in these conditions, as the industry's never suffered such a sudden and catastrophic loss of customer confidence. But I'll have a go! However, I'm as in the dark as everyone else, so any or all of my thought might be rubbish.
There will be a loss of more than 50% of traffic on the North Atlantic and Middle East routes in the short term. That will last as long as there is uncertainty about the US's intentions about going to war. If they actually do go to war, look for traffic to reduce further in those markets.
There is already a jobs fallout from the US and trans-atlantic airlines. Something like 2000 highly-qualified pilots will be released back into the European jobs market, maybe more if the domestic and low-cost sectors start to hurt badly. I'd guess that 2-300 of those pilots will be from the UK, and will be looking for jobs here.
There is unlikely to be any significant airline recruiting for two years; even replacement of retirees is probably out. With a recession now virtually inevitable, there are few prospects for solid airline recovery within 3 to 4 years. In good times, the UK industry hires about 150 pilots a year. In these somewhat unusual circumstances, how long will it take to re-absorb those 2-300 pilots? Many will leave the profession entirely, but I'd guess that these guys (including me) will fill the airlines' needs for the next 18 months or more.
So would I start training now if I were you? No, I'd wait a year or so.
But I could be wrong.

[Red_Devil]

Scroggs and WWW,

Thanks for your opinion. I had already decided to take a breather and wait and see what happens over the next few months. Your advice and observations have confirmed that it is the right thing to do.

Thanks again.

RD