Non-stop Europe - Australia flights a reality?

[jabird]

I have just seen an Australian city offered as a destination by a fairly prominent European airline.

I can't get confirmation yet that the route is a reality (or that it is non-stop, but no reason why it wouldn't be), as it isn't in the timetable, nor can I book it, but if it does materialise, it would be a fascinating route, both in its own right, and because it would be the first non-stopper to Australia from any airport in Europe.

Anyone guess the airline, European and Oz airports involved?

[JSCL]

My opinion is that there's 4 airlines in good stance to potentially do this.

Lufthansa
air Berlin
Swiss
Turkish

[jabird]

One of those

[fa2fi]

But I've read so many posts on why non stop ( I'm assuming it's non stop you are talking about?) from Europe to Oz won't work. At best Perth would perhaps work but it lacks the premium loads from Sydney. Be interesting if it happens.

I would guess LH with a 748, FRA-PER. Or the same with AB on the 787 when they come. Or a one stop via the Far East to Sydney on LH.

[JSCL]

Non-stop is fine, but I feel that many of the EU carriers lack the level of service the middle-eastern carriers thrive upon. Ultimately if you're outside of origin country, you may as well go via the UAE, same number of stops.

[jabird]

fa2fi,

As I said - the destination was on the destinations page of a prominent European airline, who I believe have the equipment to make the route work on a non stop basis.

However, the destination was surprising, and it wasn't PER, which would make sense as it is much further west. The origin was not surprising, considering the destination - now I could say you'll find lots of kebab shops there, but that would apply to all four airlines, so let's just say you won't hear much German being spoken ;)

[JSCL]

Turk has some serious expansion planned for the next few years. So I'd take a punt at Turk being the airline for the job....

Edit:

Does indeed seem to be Turk:

Turkish Airlines - Sydney: . (http://www.turkishairlines.com/en-uk/travel-information/turkish-airlines-london-sydney-flight-ticket-online-booking/flight-destinations-travel-guide)

[fa2fi]

Ah well this may be cool. One thing that puts me off goin to Oz (well apart from the money) is the trip. If I could fly a few hours to Turkey ten get settled in or the long haul down under I think it would be bearable. They must feel confident that they can provide the route along with the big three MidEast carriers. I wish them well. Would this possibly be the longest non stop flight if it is indeed nonstop?

[jabird]

JCSL - correct, although the destination I'd seen was Brisbane, under flight destinations. I see now if says 'BMS', so if you click M you will also get MEL.

Now I have 14690k as max range for a 777-300ER, and BNE is 14765. MEL is less than this distance, SYD over it.

I don't know what seating configurations give this figure - so, are THY pushing their fleet to the max on this, or will there be a stop somewhere, in which case nothing to get all flapped up (excuse the pun) about really.

[Cyrano]

Would this possibly be the longest non stop flight if it is indeed nonstop?

I think SQ's SIN-JFK (18 h 40 min! :eek:) is some 200 nm (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=Ist-syd%2C+sin-jfk&MS=wls&DU=nm) longer.

[jabird]

Cyrano, I believe that is true, but

1) TK only have A343's - is this route not done with a -600?
2) Afaik, this route is biz class only - I can't imagine much biz traffic on IST-Oz as a direct service (paying the best premiums), so it would need to be a mix of all classes. Isn't MEL the biggest Greek city outside ATH? Not sure how many of them would relish a transit through IST either?

[Cyrano]

Cyrano, I believe that is true, but

1) TK only have A343's - is this route not done with a -600?
2) Afaik, this route is biz class only - I can't imagine much biz traffic on IST-Oz as a direct service (paying the best premiums), so it would need to be a mix of all classes. Isn't MEL the biggest Greek city outside ATH? Not sure how many of them would relish a transit through IST either?

SQ use an A340-500 with a premium configuration - I can't see that much premium demand for IST-SYD, especially as for all points behind IST, it'd be competing with one-stop service via DXB.

We don't actually know this is proposed as non-stop, do we? It could be a one-stop, or indeed something as prosaic as an SQ code share beyond SIN (though TK seems imperially minded enough to want to conquer the world by itself).

[jabird]

We don't actually know this is proposed as non-stop, do we?

No, it is entirely guesswork, based on IST being so far east, but just within Europe, hence my speculation.

It would be odd though to launch 3 new routes without some sort of niche in the market place. Then again, we have put a lot of focus on the Gulf carriers having cost advantages, would TK also not have some advantages in terms of the salaries it pays?

[PAXboy]

Many carriers do not list tech stops or intermediates. They like the punter to see the start and finish. I recall learning this the hard way over 24 years ago and had not checked my info correctly (no Internet of course!) and we had an intermediate stop at BDA, twixt LGW and MBJ and KIN on the way back.

I recall a thread in Pax forum about this last year, where the airline says' here is the start and stop points and this is how long it takes'. Then up to pax to work out it that is more time than needed (inc clock changes) and then search for the flight details.

So they might be going for non-stop but they might have a tech stop.

[jabird]

Paxboy,

Yes, that is a fair point, but I think the first question people will ask - assuming these routes are about to be launched - is - are they non stop?

Maybe first stop will be MEL, then contuation to SYD or BNE, alternating - either way, BNE is an odd choice of destination anyway, but it would be a welcome one.

Given the internet, there is usually a way of telling, and most airlines will tell you if there is a stop, but not always where. I tend to find Expedia is good for getting the real info - and certain other sites out there don't list any flight with a tech stop as 'direct', when it still us, just not 'non-stop'.

With Flybe's connections, I've noticed they label GLA-CDG as non-stop, which is completely wrong as it goes via CWL, but I think that's just an info glitch.

[Mr R Sole]

I recall reading that TK held a press conference last year to formally announce they will be expanding into the Oz market. The initial offering was tipped to stop at CGK.

[jabird]

Mr Sole,

I looked through their news stories, couldn't see anything, but that might make more sense, as even with IST being so far east, Oz is a stretch without offloading some (or most?) cheap seats - can anyone suggest config needed to reach MEL?

But why CGK? Wouldn't they be keener to plug into a fellow Star hub? I know Turkey and Indonesia are large Muslim countries, but how much traffic would there be between them - a stop at DPS could scoop up pax at both ends of the Kangaroo route though.

[Groundloop]

So a new thread opened based on pure guesswork - a guess which will no doubt eventually prove totally wrong.

And a guess which the OP then decided to keep mysterious by not given the actual details of the guess!

Jeez!

[Fairdealfrank]

Groundloop, you don't sound too impressed with this thread!

Surely the only criticism, if there is one, is the fact that, despite the efforts of the EU, the EBU, the Eurovision song contest, etc. etc., Turkey is Asia Minor, it isn't geographically part of Europe.

If this too pedantic, forgive me.

[Mr R Sole]

The press release I saw originated from an Austrailian newspaper article after a travel related conference in Sydney. I am sure TK will only publish anything official once the route is confirmed as being operational. I can imagine their reservations staff would soon face chaos if TK published a press release for each new route that they intend to operate but have yet to formally announce!!! :}

The current CGK route stops at SIN so one would suspect that SIN would get its own dedicated aircraft, thus creating extra capacity to a key Star hub and travellers going to CGK will no longer need to endure the tech stop en route.

As an aside, I looked at going to CGK last year and TK were offering eyewateringly cheap fares in Y and J, when compared to the rest of the competition.

[davidjohnson6]

I;m slightly puzzled by all the excitement over this.
Is there really that much of a desire for a non-stop Europe-Australia route ?

Yes, short haul passengers insist on high frequency conveniently timed flights. But if you're gonna fly to the other side of the world, is it really such a bad thing to stop somewhere in the southern half of Asia for 2 or 3 hours, and will passengers pay a big premium to skip the fuel stop to cover the increased fuel cost to the operating airline of ultra-long haul flying ?

[The SSK]

Turkey is Asia Minor, it isn't geographically part of Europe.

If this too pedantic, forgive me.

Istanbul is in Europe, at least on my planet.

In answer to the original question – could non-stop Europe-Australia flights become reality, I believe the answer is no, for a very simple reason – flight time limitation (FTL) rules.

The airlines, the European safety regulator EASA and the pilot unions are locked in a more or less constant battle over flight and duty time rules. It sometimes surfaces here in PPRuNe. The original national rules, the current set which are half-harmonised and an eventual set which are fully harmonised, have evolved to fit the industry’s needs. And the industry’s needs are for non-stop flights to destinations like Beijing, HK, Tokyo, Singapore, US West Coast and Buenos Aires. Some of these can only be flown with very expensive four-pilot crews, dedicated bunk rest areas etc.

There is no incentive for the airlines to tinker with the rules to seek an extra hour or so on the duty limit – that would not bring any interesting destinations within the perimeter. Australia non-stop would be a big extra step and to achieve it would be to involve subjecting the rule book to a major revision. That would reignite the whole fatigue debate and invite legislation which could well turn out worse than what the airlines have currently.

Consider also which airlines we are talking about. There are only two European carriers currently serving Australia – BA and Virgin (arguably also Air Austral). All the others – Lufthansa, KLM, Air France etc – pulled out of the market long ago. They will not return. Europe-Australia is nowadays dominated by Emirates and Etihad and by definition they have to make an intermediate stop at their hubs – if ever they were to achieve seventh-freedom rights in some future Open Skies a condition would be that they followed EU safety rules, including FTL.

Maybe Turkish could, theoretically, develop national FTL rules that would allow 20 hour nonstops – until such time, which might be very soon indeed, that Turkey joins the Single European Aviation Market.

So that only leaves Qantas or another Australian airline. I have no idea what Australian FTL rules are but I assume they are closer to European then Asian or Middle Eastern standards.

[jabird]

SSK,

Yes, those are excellent points. First consideration when looking at this kind of route is naturally whether or not the aircraft has such performance capabilities, but there are a whole load of other human factors as you say.

I had merely seen these routes as an extension of what is already offered from DXB, AUH etc - hadn't done the maths on the crewing. I know we discussed some of this on the optimum flights thread a few weeks ago.

David,

I;m slightly puzzled by all the excitement over this.
Is there really that much of a desire for a non-stop Europe-Australia route ?

If only because it is one of the unreached frontiers of long haul aviation. Personally, I'd rather have as many stops as possible, but some passengers, especially at the premium end, just want to get there.

As mentioned, a route from IST to Oz would be a bit of a cheat anyay - not so much because of the question of whether or not it is in Europe (IST is, SAW is in Asia), but more because the biggest market for the Kangaroo route is from the UK.

But if it happened, it would still get press attention, it would still be a step forward, if not a giant leap, so I think it is still worthy of a pprune thread which has had, what - 20 odd replies in 4 days? Hardly that much fuss :ugh::ugh::ugh:

[Peter47]

LHR - PER should be possible, SYD could possibly be done eastbound with a 345 but would probably require a tech stop westbound. (Like LHR - SIN in the days of 743s.) When I checked the International Passenger Survey a couple of years back the UK - Oz market was just over 3m p.a. but only 7% were on business say 250,000 p.a. The UK is the most important Europe - Oz business market. Maybe half will be SYD (I don't have any data). So if you captured the bulk of it you could justify a daily 345. You might get some transfer traffic. But a lot of pax would still travel with middle east airlines.

Virgin I think have suggested a non stop PER - LHR which could be sense with a 77L or 345. You would need to carry leisure traffic for it to make sense.

[jabird]

Virgin I think have suggested a non stop PER - LHR which could be sense with a 77L or 345. You would need to carry leisure traffic for it to make sense.

I think that's V Oz rather than Atlantic, so not sure if they'd get slots @LHR - so LGW might shave another 10 miles off :D