Where are the official statistics?

[ba038]

I have been browsing PPRuNe for many years now as a wannabe pilot. Waiting for a chance to go through an integrated scheme and actually have a solid chance of gaining a job. All I come across are those people who are having a rant about pay to fly. Those within the industry complain about eroding of terms and conditions. Also those people who fight and say xyz people have got a job at x airline (!) and yet again that evolves into another ping-pong game.

Are there no facts? Statistics? Distributed by official organizations on how many licenses got distributed /revoked and a link to those whom are in employment using their licenses.

Why is it that the top flying schools do not show official statistics? I know Oxford do, however, they seem to be cheating the system one way or another.

For those wannabes out there isn’t it about time we looked at facts and figures? and demanded these before investing vast amounts of money on training.

Another crucial point I would like to point out is, if you look at the right side of a thread you will see many thousands have viewed it. However, only a minority get involved and actually contribute to the discussion. And its usually the familiar names that come up.

To those wannabes who may view this, why is it that you do not leave your thoughts and comments?
Having said this I would also like to give a huge thanks to the moderators and those who set up the forum. It has provided me with a huge insight to the industry and has given me a platform to deeply think and given me vast amounts of information.

Thank you!

[welliewanger]

I sympathise with your predicament as I remember when I was about to take the plunge that I was hesitant without knowing about any statistics. Unfortunately, since there is no body overseeing pilot careers from when they graduate it would be very hard to compile such information.

The most reliable sourse is going to be from each of the schools which you visit. Many of the larger ones will have such information available pertaining to their own success. However it should, of course, be taken with a pinch of salt. The stats may be "How many graduates now have jobs as pilots." That, would include the ones that spent two years in McDonalds and then paid for an instructor rating out of desperation and now work part time as an instructor on the days that they're not in McD.

Good luck in your search.

[KAG]

Are there no facts? Statistics?

Excellent question.

Welliewonger is right in saying the flight schools will give the numbers they want (perhaps the ones that will make you choose to spend your money with them?), I don't beleive they have accurate datas over the years and follow 100% of their graduate. I even beleive most of the schools don't even try. So to try to have a general view is almost impossible, you can only guess.

No survey exist on the matter I am afraid so, and most people who gave up or "failed" are not even posting on pprune.

I personnaly would be very cautious with this career, and would have a reachable goal step by step that doesn't involve money I don't have.

First step (3-5 years): When at high school and /or university, or while working, become an ultra light or glider instructor (part time most likely, obviously...). It will give you the basics, challenge your motivation, and assess your skills. It won't be easy and this is an excellent test.
If you are a good glider instructor at 22 years old, there is no reason why you won't be a good airline pilot at 34.

Now that you have the basics, and that you know your personal skills do match what is required to fly an airplane, I would start networking with your students/colleagues. The glider instructor might do his PPL and start towing gliders for example. The ultra light instructor might teach on more evolved ultra lights, should begin to network too, and get his PPL.

Next step is to get an instructor rating (2-3 years) ,with a basic CPL, no IFR, no multi, but a strong flight and instructor background, this step could be done outside of EU (Africa, US, Canada, Australia...) because travelling for a pilot should be one of his motivations. At that step it might be possible to do it full time, providing you have no debts. Finding an instructor job with your previous networking and experience shouldn't be a problem.

Third step is to build your flight time, and meanwhile get your IR, multi, and maybe your MCC (2/3 years) then get a job as a multi IR instructor, or get a job with a small company using small airplanes (most likely abroad?).

At that step (2/3 years) , you might have around 3500 hours, and should focus to find a job that will allow you to become turboprop captain. You ll be able to make some money , and pursue your training concerning skills and decision making.

Finally with around 5000 hours of quality time, including PIC, you'll have to work on finding either an airline job (turbofan), either change company (with turboprop/jet fleet) to fly on a turboprop with the opportunity to access to their turbofan fleet after a few years. You may have to change country for that...

In my example it took between 9/14 years to access a "jet" (turbofan), it could be longer, it could be shorter. To get an idea in my country it takes 12 years to become a medecine specialist... Never beleive it is the rule to get an airline job with 180 hours total of training and expecting a 4/7000 Euro salary to start with as a F/O. To get a starting salary around 4/7000, the medecine specialist has to wait 12 years of training, so does the new airline pilot.

If you are stuck anytime during the process I describe, you still have a job and you are no bankrupt.
During the process you'll get skills and experience that should be a must for an airline pilot.

There is many details and even options I didn't even mention, my point is more to give you a general idea on how to go step by step,
*without having to be covered by debts with no future,
*with the possibility to assess your skills immediately, without taking the risk to spend 150 000 Euros including pay to work to find out you have a behaviour problem or skill problem that won't allow you to have a career in this industry,
*with the possibility to be stucked at any level without too much damage to your wallet and ego and a nice experience to tell your grand kids later.

I hope I have provided you with some ideas to deal with your career safely despite the lack of survey and statistics in the field.

[Poeli]

Nice post KAG, gives me some things to think about and plan some more!

[Bearcat F8F]

KAG, the timescales are slightly laughable. You just made becoming an airline pilot an 11 year routine!

There's many ways of doing it obviously. You've named one of many.

As for the OP, I've never come across any decent statistics other than what CTC, OAA will tell you, and they could easily be bias.

[redsnail]

If you only define "airline pilot" as one who's LHS in a turbofan....
An airline pilot can be a turboprop FO.

[KAG]

If you only define "airline pilot" as one who's LHS in a turbofan....
An airline pilot can be a turboprop FO.Indeed. The exact and correct name could be LHS in a turbofan, agreed. But in this website, I assumed everybody understood the airline pilot job meaning in my post. However we have to be accurate with vocabulary, you are right.



Timescale are only an idea (to counteract the "I want it now!" phenomenon), based on my own experience and my student's. Of course it can vary a lot. Personnaly it took me 7 years, during which I have flown glider, single piston, then multi piston, then multi turbine, then small jet, (Including PIC at each steps) to then get an airline job (LHS turbofan job like the very well known B737 or the A320 as a reference).
It could take 1 day for some (cadet are an example) or never for some others.

Point is to give the information it takes some time to get there, the travel is worth it concerning the experience, the comitment, and the pleasure to think you deserve what you've reached, without paying to work, with a set of skills that might give a safe ride to your passengers and a fast captain upgrade in some airlines that value previous captain experience.

Poeli: I am happy it gives you some ideas... Many options are possible, I didn't, obviously, wrote them all. But the examples I have given are a safe for your walet: depending the authority that will deliver your CPL, glider time, ultra light time count towards your CPL, and towing gliders count towards your CPL PIC time... Many details we cannot mention in a single post.
It's a win win option for the ones who are not in a hurry to get to the top of the mountain and rent an helicopter to do so.

[tarmac12]

Most CAA's around the world publish facts on how many CPL's/ATPL's they issue in a year and usually have trend graphs to show how many issued in previous years. Most will also have statistics on how many active CPL/ATPL licence's are out there and how many have lapsed.

They will also have stats on how many instructor ratings are active and how many instrument ratings get renewed every year. If you know how many people are roughly in the airlines then you can get a rough picture of how many people have acquired a licence in the last 20 years versus how many IR's get renewed and how many instructors are current. This will probably work out to about 30% of people issued with a licence in the last 20 years are actually working in the industry still.

These numbers can be skewed by the amount of foreign nationals getting UK licences and never working in the UK and also the UK pilots who fly overseas and don't keep the UK licence current.

[Bealzebub]

If you have the aptitude, resource and luck.

1. Apply to join a full time integrated course of training with a programme that is affilated to a number of airlines.

2. Work hard, putting in the necessary effort and determination for the next 16 months.

3. Get placement flying Airbus A320 for 6-8 months.

4. Get offer of part or full time contract on conclusion of placement.

Time from start to finish a little over 2 years!


Just as with every other route, I am afraid there is no guarantee of anything. Timing and luck needs to be very much on your side. This is what I am watching happen now. It might not be the case in 6 months time. It might be better or it might be worse. As it says underneath this forums title: Do ya feel lucky, Punk? Well do ya?

The problem with statistics is I suspect a bit like mapping a beach. There isn't much to be gained because the landscape changes with every tide. If you know where you want to go, and you have the resources (not just the money) to get there, then there are various routes you might follow. Some will prove better than others.

[KAG]

Bealzebub: If you have the aptitude, resource and luck.

After having drawn a nice circle around the subject, we come back right on topic: luck, that we also call statistics.

[Bealzebub]

Yes. If you want to scroll back over my posts on this subject for the last 13 years you will find luck is an ingredient I rarely fail to mention. However don't draw a circle around it in order to exclude the other requisites. That would be a mistake.

"Statistics", do not define "luck", they are an abstract, or at best, an art form that are often used alongside a science. Often used to provide an interpretive quantum, they can be whatever you want them to be. By one definition they are: a branch of applied mathematics concerned with the collection and interpretation of quantitative data and the use of probability theory to estimate numerical parameters.

[KAG]

It's alright, statistics happen to be the subject of the thread, that's all.
Whatever scientific definition we want to give to statistics, I think what every wannabe not already (luckily?) hired by a cadet schem and similar want to know about their luck to find a job later... Thank you to bring us back on topic.

I think Tarmac12 have some ideas...

[pudoc]

I once asked a similar question, my response was something along the lines of "the statistics mean nothing". Something to do with these stats are made to look nicer and they don't include things like world growth and the economy which obviously have an affect.

It is luck as mentioned above, but you have to make your own luck by putting yourself out there.

[mad_jock]

http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/175/Flight%20Crew%20Licensing%20Transactions%20April%202009%20to %20March%202010.pdf

Is this what your sort of after?

You won't get useful statistics because the CAA say they are commercially sensitive. Which means if they did produce useful stuff it would mean the training industry would go into a nose dive when students could actually realise about what the chances of them getting employed are.

Over 1200 CPL's issued in 2010 ouch!!!

[tarmac12]

We still haven't seen the 2010/11 stats and I would say that there will be another 1200 CPL's issued on that one as well. Are there alot of foreign students getting licences at the moment? Say 200 are issued to people who will never fly in the UK thats still about 1000 CPL's a year for how many jobs? Maybe 150 entry level jet and turbo prop jobs and mybe 150 instructor gigs? Those sorts of figures would scare the life out of any flying school!

Can you imagine if the schools had to tell all potential students that the odds of getting job were less than 30%?

[ba038]

Ummm very interesting indeed(!). I have read many mixed reply's on this issue on statistics. Thank you for all those who have contributed.

I just take it that there simply are no official statistics between licenses issued and airline employment.

Blimey! over thousand licenses issued. That is enough to get my head spinning.

[KAG]

tarmac12:
pilot has became a global job. There are some airlines in the world that have more "foreigner" pilots than "locals"! Not saying this is the rule, in my airline there are more "locals" than "foreigners" (whatever it means), still...

You would need numbers at the EU scale, I think that in the US ( and Canada) the datas are much more accurate and easy to get, but because the multiple of levels and variety of aviation there, you have a good change to get a pilot job of some kind if you have your CPL. That's not very easy there neither however...

Around the world pilots are moving, this is even more true within EU, the most accurate would be to count all jobs that are created every year, and how many EU licence are delivered the same year.

I would love to know those numbers, but I am sure many schools wouldn't like this kind of survey to take place...

However I beleive that with the help of some ppruners here you should be able (at UK or EU level) to get some datas concerning new jobs per year (let's start with 2011?) and the total number of job created.
Make the list of the different airlines, ask how many, roughly, job has been created in each of them. I beleive PPrune is the perfect place to ask for those datas and be provided with estimates, and/or links towrds official datas.

Gettin the total number of new licence shouldn't be a big problem neither...

That's a job for the pprune community, definitely.

[redsnail]

When I started flying way back in the 1980's Australia's civil aviation authority would send you a letter congratulating you on becoming a pilot (this was just at the student pilot stage). However, they would warn you that there are more pilots than jobs so don't believe the flight school hype.

I don't think they do that any more which is a pity.

In Australia, the CPL to good well paying job ratio is something like 100 to 10. Yes, for every 100 CPL's issued, only 10 will get a decent jet job.

Food for thought.

[stuckgear]

you've answered your own question


Why is it that the top flying schools do not show official statistics? I know Oxford do, however, they seem to be cheating the system one way or another.



And there you have it, right there.

[Cloabp]

Hi guys,

I think this is a very interesting thread. It is a good question why there doesn’t exist more accessible statistics regarding the issuing of certificates and the employment of pilots.

Talk:
Well I guess that the only ones that really would benefit from these statistics would be those who is thinking about becoming a pilot. And maybe those guys who have finished their flight training and are now considering changing career due to the lack of jobs.

It will not benefit the flying schools and neither will it benefit the CAA's which is also basing part of their economy on the fee's collected from new certificates and renewals. At the same time these are the guys sitting on the figures and statistics.

The CAA will probably be much more helpful when it comes to providing the figures they can provide, contrary to the flight schools. The flight schools of course have a much greater interest in painting an often misleading picture and selling their training.
Mad Jock already posted a link that are showing some interesting figures from the UK CAA.

Point:
I think there need to bee some kind of resource to counterbalance the picture painted by the flight schools. It should be based on facts and figures like the license transactions provided by the UK CAA, and as far as possible be collected from as many local CAA's as possible, air lines etc.
It could also help to shoot down some of the classic flight school clichés that cannot be backed up. Like the ”big retirement” coming soon story etc.

The only resource/channel, that I can think of, to reach pilots considering flight training is the internet. With good SEO you should be able to reach a good amount of people considering a career as a pilot.

I think they deserve to have a better chance of getting relevant information about the job-situation in the industry they are about to enter. And it could in the end help create a more balanced situation in the industry as well.

If you think this is a good idea and are willing to help then send med a PM.

[tarmac12]

I recently saw a TV show on an American public TV station about some US Universities mis-representing the opportunities available to law school graduates and the salary expectations on completion of the course.

One University guaranteed a job placement within 12 months. The only problem was that it didn't have to be in a law related field. This was only found out after reading the pages of fine print in the University admission papers everyone had to sign before starting the course.

These Universities now have class action law suits against them!

I take the position of thinking that anyone wanting money from me for goods and services should be viewed as used car salesman. This means he will tell you almost anything to get you to buy it. He will sail very close to legal wind whilst doing it as well. The saleman know what he can and can't say and can make very matter of fact comments sound like he is making a statement the he would have to back up legally.

"In my opinion this car is perfect" When you drive it out of the yard and the wheels fall off you will get a reply of "that was only my opinion", It wasn't binding statement.

The problem with aviation is that the general public view anyone doing pilot training as very well off and if they get ripped off well they can afford it.

[PPRuNe Towers]

Fee paying school results and rankings in the UK:

Best Schools : League Tables (http://www.best-schools.co.uk/best-schools.aspx)

And what are the compulsary punctuality performance results for airlines if not commercially sensitive?

I can find thousand of websites detailing free school results but nothing for very expensive aviation courses?

[ba038]

PPRuNe Towers - You are on the same track as me. It’s a pity that this area of aviation does not get looked at.

Would this be because the whole training to become a pilot is not viewed as a professional qualification?

Perhaps it is about time that training to become a pilot should be subject to scrutiny and be included as a professional qualification of some sort. Like a degree is. Where the flight schools get ranked and scrutinized according to their standards. And perhaps have system like an Ofsted report.

Food for thought.

[RVR800]

It would be useful for the CAA to track successful conversions fATPL to ATPL - they of course will have that data but it is sadly deficient on their website.

I wonder why? :=

[Cloabp]

Good point about the fATPL to ATPL.

Actually I think that it is just a matter of calling them. I don't think that they intentionally keeps these figures a secret.

I called my local CAA couple of days ago, and they where very helpful providing me the figures that they had at hand...interesting I think. The figures does say a lot about how the job situation is developing...or degrading when you compare to the number of jobs in the country. It should be mandatory reading for every one who thinks about a career as a pilot.

[mad_jock]

In the UK I doudt very much they would know how many folk have cpl/IR and MCC mainly because MCC isn't recorded and as such is just a tick in the box course which the person has to present a cert for.

As for the how many ATPL's issued it is already listed.

The stuff to me that would be interesting is.

1.Number of intial class 1 medicals.

2.Number of 14 theory passes complete

3. Number of CPL's issued

4. Number of intial multiengine IR's issued (not the current number of post license, the whole lot on one year)

5. Number of intial type ratings issued.


Would someone like to contact their MP and see ifthey can get them to extract such information?

[Cloabp]

You are right about MCC, but from frozen ATPL to ATPL they would probably have the figures.

Can you explain why you think these figures are interesting?

I think that almost everyone who obtain their CPL will go on and get their MEIR and frozen ATPL. The interesting thing is how many get their professional licenses per year. That is the picture, as I see it, of the amount of new pilots per year that needs to be absorbed by the job-marked. I realize that it is different in the UK due to the amount of foreigners training there.

And yes, type ratings issued would also be interesting.

[mad_jock]

There isn't such a license as frozen ATPL.

It is used to denote Cpl/IR ATPL theory passed and MCC done.

But as such it doesn't actually excist.

Every one gets a blue CPL license. Be it they pay 30 grand for the training or 80k for the training.

[Cloabp]

Okay. Well, the interesting thing is how many of those who get a CPL MEIR licenses goes on and gets a full ATPL. Even just the amount of CPL's issued are very interesting. But you need the figures for more countries to make it real interesting. And also the number of jobs in the corresponding country...or maybe the amount of commercial planes operated by that country.

Scratchingthesky:
If you where able to live for the money you earned from your instructor job, I think it's fine to list you as employed.
The school's are definitely bending the truth often. I have even heard direct lies from my own school when they where trying to recruit new students. That's why it is unfortunate that there doesn’t exist an alternate source of information/statistics regarding employment/unemployment etc. I don't think that you have a really good chance of estimating the chances of getting a job at the end of your training, before you start. Everybody knows that it is not easy...but the actual desperate situation is most often not known. If it where known, I think people would give it a little more thought - both parents and the young guys considering flight training.

[Cloabp]

No, I'm not joking.

You got yourself a job which makes you employed. But I understand that it's hard or impossible to live and pay of debt on that salary. Sure, the schools makes it sound way easier than it is to get a job. And in the end there is not a job for everyone. Maybe half, maybe more or less. It's all guessing and that is why I think we should try to gather information from local CAA's regarding the amount of CPL's etc. issued each year. These figures can then be compared to the amount of pilot jobs in each country. Maybe start with the JAA-area.

[Cloabp]

It is just a matter of using a bit of time on collecting the figures, they seem to be available if you just call your local CAA.

I don't think that the flight schools will have no one to train, but they would have less to train if people really understood the job-situation that follows when you finish flight training. And that is only fair, in my opinion, since today they train much more people than needed.
When people have invested time and money in a professional flying certificate, they are very dedicated to getting all the way to a job. This means paying more money for type ratings, FI ratings, line training etc on their way.

In the end there is not a job for everyone and the ones who did not get a job will have lost a lot of money and that's a shame. It would be alright if it was just a small percentage of people finishing flight training, that would in some way be natural. But in this industry it seems to be a very big percentage who ends up having to find another career.

Again it is hard to say for sure when there is no data available to judge from. You can only judge from your personal experience. That is what everybody do and even though they are often right when complaining about the missing jobs, it's a little hard to base any decisions on. Specially if your are new to the game.

Some real numbers and figures collected from the CAA's and other reliable sources would make a big difference.