got some time on your hands?

[grumpytroll]

http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation/aerospace_forecasts/2010-2030/media/2010%20Forecast%20Doc.pdf

Cheers

[rotorfan]

Well, I decided to bite, Doug. Sitting here with a cool one (not a GT unfortunately, as that was gone soon after OSH), I had time on my hands (and greasy salt from cashews). I only made Page 3 and decided "this is obsolete." It's dated 2009 and signed by Randy Babbitt, Administrator. :E

[Epiphany]

Wan't he the one who had his old feller traumatically amputated by his wife, had it reattached and went on to become a porn star?

[Gordy]

Nope----did he not just get a DUI and resign....

[topendtorque]

Wan't he the one who had his old feller traumatically amputated by his wife, had it reattached and went on to become a porn star?


Heard of entities under administration before but this takes the cake. Hope it was lengthy administration, for his sake and not a bangtailed one. Never heard the bit about his after profession, you must have just made that up?

Ah yes, wise Mr. Google has informed me all about it. A turbulent time had by all, by all accounts.

[grumpytroll]

This report represents the forecast for aviation as seen by the FAA for the years 2010-2030. I read through it for a class I am taking. Other than the introduction and a review, I doubt Babbit had much to do with this report beyond sprucing it up for political purposes. Couple of things I found interesting:

1. The report describes in detail the bashing the industry has taken for the past 8-10 years both U.S. and globally.

2. Reports in detail the growth in the low cost carrier industry both large aircraft (over 90 seats) and the regional carriers. (90 seats and under) What is not said of course is the corresponding erosion in pay and benefits for pilots as a result. (Virgin America has lost 680 billion since inception but deep pockets allow it to show no signs of letting up)

3. Flight training in the U.S. is extremely slow for all of the reasons you can imagine.

4. Average age of a U.S. licensed pilot is 45.7 and growing.

5. The report, like most written for the consumption of congress paints an icredibly rosy picture for growth thru 2030. (job justification for the writers)

6. One interesting aspect of the report is its mention of the H1N1 scare and having done some further research, how it is considered a hoax by most medical organizations around the globe pushed by big pharma through the WHO. Result for the airlines, billions in lost revenue over a reletively small flu outbreak as compared to historical averages. The media pours gas on these as well. (Recall CNN's Dr. Gupta in his mask in downtown Mexico City forecasting the end of us all)

7. At the end of the report a discussion about how the forecast data is probably too positive and then goes on the show most of the charts in the main report with a less ambitious outcome. (CYA) For example the main report forecasts a GDP for 2011 of 3.0 percent but later in the supplemental section of the report that percent is lowered to 1.7-2.7 which is where the US GDP is actually sitting as of yesterday.

8. The problem with using percentages in your forecast is if the very first year is off by a percent, (we are talking some big numbers here) all of the following data is skewed and the error gets bigger with each passing year.

9. I think I saw the word "rotorcraft" once in the report and I don't recall seeing "helicopter" anywhere.

Looking at the brief history of aviation in the U.S. and the unpredictability of world events, I don't know why they write these 20 year forecasts. WWI, Great Depression, WWII, Korea, VietNam, The jet age, deregulation, oil embargos, strikes, 9-11, Wars, SARS, H1N1, Mad Cow, bankrupcy, mergers.......... None of these events show up in any forecasts yet these are the very things that drive the industry to a great extent.

Cheers