Pilot shortage in Asia

[DauphinDude]

The Asian Pilot Shortage Is Intensifying As Airlines Order Hundreds of New Planes (http://www.businessinsider.com/asian-pilot-shortage-2011-12)

Though it seems like a LOT of expats are still looking for work, experienced ones at that. So what will happen now?

[B767PL]

Everyone keeps whistling the pilot shortage tune, but yet the reality seems much different.

All these airlines have very experienced applicants applying, and seem to be able to pick and choose from the huge supply pool of typed applicants.

Just look at the middle east and the types of guys that are getting picked up there, with thousands of hours on jets of all sizes.. not even going to mention all the unemployed European guys in that market looking for work. Asia it doesn't seem too much different. At least as far as expats go.. there is not shortage. There is hiring, but no shortage.

Yea you can say, well just wait another few years until the supply dries up... but that is the same thing they said 10 years ago.

[DauphinDude]

I´m not saying anything, I´m on fling wing, but at some point there has to be a shortage? Like the article says, 2 billion people rising up to the middle class. The pool of type rated people can´t possible cover it all, can it? As a European myself, I know a lot of people who want a job, but few of them are in a position to work all around the globe. Some are spoilt and refuses to go to a place where the standard of living are lower, while others have families they don´t wanna leave. Not to mention that while a lot of europeans could afford to buy themselves a typerating, while many (most?) in Asia cannot.

[B767PL]

Didn't mean you were saying it, meant it in a general sense. :ok:

That is true that many cannot have such flexible life styles. And one side of me says that with all the news of orders of aircraft etc. that there has to be good times ahead. The other side says, that they have been talking about this for years now, and it has never happened. There will always be a recession, spike in fuel prices, etc. that will curve pilot hiring and allow time for the flight schools to pump out a few more hopefuls. Times won't be bad with all the deliveries etc. But at the same time I don't think it will be as great as they say. Flight schools in China and India are pumping out hundreds of their own pilots every year in an attempt to keep up with expansion. Time will tell I guess.

[Tee Emm]

Flight schools in China and India are pumping out hundreds of their own pilots every year in an attempt to keep up with expansion. Time will tell I guess.
http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/statusicon/user_offline.gif http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/buttons/report.gif (http://www.pprune.org/report.php?p=6837956) http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/buttons/reply_small.gif (http://www.pprune.org/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=6837956&noquote=1)Which means in the future we can expect Loss of Control accidents in airliners to stay on the increase:sad:

[Kilo Bravo 1]

That's a very reckless and silly statement. when the United states and Europeans are also pumping out even more pilots with equal if not more incidents, you8 probably overlook that. If pilots a being trained else where, you feel you they are more incident prone. Sorry but look within first.:=

[Metro man]

A pilot shortage simply means that employers can't get the people they want at the price they want to pay. Solution is to reduce requirements and/or increase pay. You can only go so far in these areas before it starts to hurt.

Advertise B777 pilot positions with a nice base, good pay, free rating and low experience requirements, you will be snowed under with applicants.

Reduce the pay and increase the experience requirements, watch the applications thin out.

When you run out of people you'd want to employ at the price you can afford, you've got a shortage.

[A380driver]

This idiotic article should serve as the occasional sweetener for the young and naive, but ambitious self funded Gen Y. They have ruined the whole equation by agreeing P2F.
Can't stop them, will be accused that we don't have the right to criticize since we already achieved our goal in our present jobs.
Just open your eyes and look at all the clear signs, everybody talks about shortages, there is none. You will not see any aircraft parked. All the big boys have ways to manipulate their routes to avoid parking their shiny tubes. No one wants to break the silently agreed average pay package. Nobody wants to pay more, if Chinese company appears to be paying more, why aren't the experienced pilots from the south east asian carriers going? The answer is simple, because right now, most experienced pilots are contended with the pay.
So back to starting point, don't dream any further. Just accept the fact that pay will stay where it is, fresh CPL holders will be jobless and forced to pay more (or paid less in salary) to gain experience, and retirement age will be raised to 70 very very soon with requirements lowered to counter lack of experienced left seat drivers.
Tell me that I'm wrong in 10 years, and I'll be happy to buy a round of beers.

[Luke SkyToddler]

Spot on Metro Man -

When they say "pilot shortage" what they actually mean is "shortage of experienced captains, who are type rated and current on modern equipment, who are willing to drop everything at a moment's notice and move to a far flung third world sh!t hole, sign a contract with a disreputable sleazebag agency, and work for a startup airline with zero job security, zero benefits and pathetically low pay" :hmm:

And when that sleazeball agency finds it mysteriously can't get enough people applying for its wonderful jobs, it starts crying "pilot shortage".

There will never ever ever be a shortage of people at the entry level and don't kid yourselves into thinking there is.

[mach5]

What you said is totally true. The airlines will never spend in training pilots and they would claim there is shortage of pilots in the market.

[dragstar]

Not to forget this claimed pilot shortage is over a period of almost two decades.

Breaking it down to per month requirement, its not too huge a figure, given the fact that the industry will hit rock bottom atleast 5 times if not more in the next two decades.
Since 2005 we've been reading about pilot shortage, about to touch 2012, 6 years no airline has claimed shortage.

Articles like these should be taken with a pinch of salth, as they have adverse effects on young minds. barely in class 10, they start to think they'll match the demand and supply equation and pump in alot of money and time with starry eyes, only to realize at a later stage, the reality is not as bright as it seems.

[B737NG]

Shortage of money in the pott to train the local Pilots up to standarts and english language. Spending money on translating manuals into local language seems to be normal but for the newcomers?? nothing left. The people who make it into the Industry today have not the same T&C´s like 20 years ago. Sorry, there is no shortage of Pilots, there is a short sight only and not enough commitment to a long term plan. That would cost money and with the Managers from today the "Share holder value" and in a short time maximising profit to stuff the bucks into the pocket and not reinvesting enough back into the company, the shortage is exactly self induced. No mercy. There are enough enthusiastic people who want to fly and cannot afford the cost of licence and training. Get them, train them, use them and then there will be enough supply in the chain.

[atpcliff]

Carriers:
Emirates has lowered their mins, and increased the benefits relating to their recruiting at least 5 times since they started re-hiring in 2009. At the US road shows, they originally got larger-airplane capts, then regional jet capts. Now the road shows are almost all regional jet FOs. I heard that their -777 fleet will not have enough crews by 2014, and this was BEFORE their 50 ship -777 orders.

I heard that KAL will not meet their recruiting goals as of 2001. The recruiter said this about 5 months ago...and said that there was nothing HR could do to achieve the needed amount of pilots.

Atlas Air (a US carrier, and a very nice job for US pilots, I believe), has dropped their minimums twice in the last 1.5 years. They are flying 747s and 767s, and the mins are down to 2000 Total Time/500 Turbine Total Time (no jet and no PIC required). Initially they were getting wide-body international capts, then a mix of smaller jets/wide body capts, and now they are getting may directly from the US regional airlines, and starting to get pilots without any turbine PIC.

US Pilot Training Situation:
The US has produced less pilots every year since about 2000. Many, many flight schools have shut down. Some have stayed open, by switching from almost 100% US students to 100% foreign students. The US military now produces a huge percentage of UAV pilots, who will leave the military never having flown a manned plane.

And, starting in 2013:
1-LARGE numbers of US pilots will start retiring, after a 5 year hiatus. The age 60 rule was changed in Dec, 2007, to age 65, so the US has had an artificial no-retirement window of 5 years, ending in late 2012.
2-ALL US -121 (Delta, United, SkyWest, Pinnacle, etc.) pilots will need a full ATP, even to start out as a First Officer.

The above situation in the US will DRASTICALLY reduce the amount of trained pilots available, which will reduce the numbers of US pilots going overseas, which will mean more pilots will be needed from Europe, Asia, S. America, Africa, Australia, and Canada. It will definitely help those pilots out a lot, with a lot less pilots chasing a lot less jobs.

[JotaJota]

FINALLY! :ok::E

[assanick]

Cliff :ok::ok::ok:

[Luke SkyToddler]

American Airlines gone bust this week ... so almost certainly a couple thousand more Yanks are about to go on "furlough" and they will be flooding the asian contract world and the mid east in the next few months ...

Astraeus airlines in England also bankrupt this week, and Thomas Cook will not survive the winter - so that's several hundred highly experienced Brits also about to hit the market.

If the Euro goes belly up, which I reckon is about 75% certainty at this time of posting, the resulting downturn will take out quite a few of the highly indebted European airlines - Alitalia, Olympic, TAP, Aer Lingus, Iberia - I will eat my hat if all those airlines are still around this time next year without massive pilot redundancies / restructuring.

Sorry atpcliff but I just dont share your optimism

[pilotbaba]

@Luke SkyToddler

You may not agree with what others have said but look at it this way.

Those airlines who are failing & going belly up, are going BK due to mis-calculations & wrong management decisions . These airlines are not going Belly Up because they have no passengers & their A/C are flying empty, They still fly a lot of passengers ...

Some airline is going to fly those passengers.......

If one company goes under, another company is most likely already in place to replace that out-going company, either by growing or starting a new one.....

American Airlines filed a Chapter 11 BK protection, but it is a strategic decision to re-organise the company, basically in simple words, to get rid of the unwanted monkeys off their back, debt is just one of it. Pensions & employee benefits & unwanted leases is another big cause.

Yes there will be a lot of experienced pilots available from US & Europe when they see their retirement funds & pensions vaporise. They will move & come over to Asia & Middle East & that will create a vaccum in US & Europe. Who's going to fly those planes......

Look around, all across Asia & Middle east, Mid-level carriers like Jet Airways, Indigo, All the Chinese carriers, Fly Dubai, Air Arabia, Gulf Etc Etc, all of them are desperate for 737 & 320 Captains & TRE/TRI's.

It takes only 9-12 months to train a fresher from Zero to CPL, another 3 - 6 months to train a First Officer, BUT it takes Lots & LOTS of years to become a Captain.......

The demand is increasing everyday, with more & more new A/C hitting the Tarmac, & new routes being added; you see the same Job vacancy ADs being repeated everyweek & every month with better pay & improved conditions; the supply is limited & reducing, more older captains either retiring or losing their Medicals everyday........

It is only the begining, it is going to get much worse.....

The Pilot Shortage which everyone keeps referring to, in reality, is an "EXPERIENCED CAPTAIN'S SHORTAGE"...

Infact, Nowadays, a properly qualified Captain can choose which country & company they want to work for, what kind of commuting or fixed base options they want. The companies are offering huge joining bonuses & contract copmpletion bonuses. The Captains are now finally being paid, the compensation what they deserve for such a huge responsibillity......

Maybe it's just another Cycle in Aviation, And it really doesn't matter how long it lasts, because these senior captains wll make their money in 3-5 years & then can easily & comfortably retire, they will just leave behind a job with that kind of pay & benefits for the next generation......

Well, an experienced captain, is technically, still a Pilot.......

[Bindair Dundat]

pilotbaba...what do you consider good money? I don't know of ANY contracts for captains with high time on heavy equipment that equates to signing bonuses and retiring in 3 - 4 years. Honestly, contracts right now are borderline. EK offers tax free but you work like a sweaty dog for the Arabs...ok for a few years but not forever. The Middle East is mind-numbingly expensive now so you ain't retiring in 3 - 4 years. Air China contract is a big miss at best right now and KAL which offers a good commuting contract is underpaid by at least 20%...

What airline am I missing here????? I know heaps of guys that will sign on the dotted line

[LindbergB767]

I am sorry guys but i have been flying since 1973,, heard about pilot shortage about 4 to 5 time since then and never saw one yet
And i think Sky is correct so far there is no pilot shortage
When pilot are paying their type rating, with no salary, no accomodation ( Vietnam airlines, Jetstar Pacific, Tiger, Singapore Airlines (Scoot) ect ect) THERE is NO PILOT Shortage
When the airlines will really need pilots they will hire pilots ,and pay for the type rating, as well as pay a normal salary and accomodation while on training
So far, only the Japanese are doing that, and it is not because of a pilot shortage because they have always did it (Maybe they still respect the profession)

[WYOMINGPILOT]

"The Pilot Shortage which everyone keeps referring to, in reality, is an "EXPERIENCED CAPTAIN'S SHORTAGE"..."

The highest paying jobs in the world for ex Pats are now the narrow body fleets in China and not the widebodies. Many of them pay over $17K per month. The training going on is absolutely staggering. The Chinese don't really want the Ex Pats but they need the experienced Captains. Very few Chinese airlines hire Foreign FOs. The time for a young Chinese recruit from 0 hours to 737 NG Captain is right at 4 years at my airline here in China. If the economy burps in China the Ex Pats will be the first to go. There will be a need for at least another 5 years for ex Pat Captains in China but many outside factors could influence this.

[A380driver]

The time for a young Chinese recruit from 0 hours to 737 NG Captain is right at 4 years at my airline here in China.

Anyone still has any question about the supply of low cost PICs? (if the above holds any truth)

[Patty747400]

"The time for a young Chinese recruit from 0 hours to 737 NG Captain is right at 4 years at my airline here in China"

If this is true, wear a helmet because there will be a lot of aluminium falling out of the sky soon...

[pilotbaba]

@Bindair Dundat

Pls look at Jet Airways & Indigo In India & Chinese airlines ADs for the 737 & 320 Captains. They are all paying high salaries plus signing bonuses & contract completion bonuses.... The compensation for that catagory is about 25%to 40% more when you compare anywhere in US or Europe because of the terms....

The website called latestpilotjobs dot com, lists all these jobs for free...

These jobs are of course not for everone, not for people who are comfortably employed with a decent seniority & definitely not for those who can't bear to live in that part of the world.
But those who are in the 55+ yrs age bracket & have very few years left for flying & have been forced to leave their lifelong carrer due to their airline go belly up or due to BK & have seen their retirement funds & pensions vaporise...

Those are the guys who can suck it up for a few years & put a decent chunk of money into their retirement savings by flying for a few years in India & China & Middle east....

Like I said, It is the shortage of Well Qualified Experienced Captains.....

[Bindair Dundat]

pilotbaba...all is not what it seems with these contracts. Everything looks good on paper HOWEVER, a lot changes on the ground once you are there. Are you flying at any of these places? Have you lived in India or China? Even as single expat that is tough going. T&C's change at a moments notice....bonuses are suspect...completion...hmmmm probably will not have to honor that as will likely layoff before needing to pay that one up. Sorry but you are giving a rosy picture to an industry that is completely slaughtering this professsion. It is a race to the bottom at the moment at most airlines. Costs go up and the first cost centre that management attack are the highest salaries (excluding themselves of course).
If there was a decent (medium term) contract out there that offered very good compensation and a reliable commuting contract from a home base in Europe or N.A. there would be absolutely no shortage at this level. I can think of dozens of guys from the Middle East that would jump ship yesterday. However, this contract does not exist at the moment.

[Soab]

No pilot shortage.
Their are too many experienced Capts unemployed.

Airlines advertising are very specific on their requirements

600-1000 PIC on type, current flying (not just Sim).
None of these airlines are willing to train you at all (except one maybe).
If there was a shortage they would take these experienced Capts get them current on type, or endorse / train them on a different aircraft type.

Thats not happening.

Every time there is talk of a pilot shortage something global happens, Iraq wars, Oil shortage, Iran, 911, SARS, Bird flu, Recession, Stock market crash, large airlines going into chapter 11 and lays off / furloughs pilots, countries go bust.

At least thats what has happened in my 25 year career and as a result my pay over my career has been relatively low (compared to what I histoircally expected when starting out).
Low cost carriers, what a joke, that just means pay all your staff less for doing the same job. (ceos excepted of coarse).

Im still waitng for the pilot shortage that will give me a reasonable pay for reasonable hours worked and job security.
Then I may be treated as a professional pilot and not someone management begrudgingly have to pay a small salary to. (compared to their salary)

If your waiting for that elusive pilot shortage, you may well be dissappointed, I know I am.

[JotaJota]

The highest paying jobs in the world for ex Pats are now the narrow body fleets in China and not the widebodies. Many of them pay over $17K per month. The training going on is absolutely staggering. The Chinese don't really want the Ex Pats but they need the experienced Captains. Very few Chinese airlines hire Foreign FOs. The time for a young Chinese recruit from 0 hours to 737 NG Captain is right at 4 years at my airline here in China. If the economy burps in China the Ex Pats will be the first to go. There will be a need for at least another 5 years for ex Pat Captains in China but many outside factors could influence this.AGREE!!! :ok:

[Gligg]

Never was. Never is. Never shall be. Amen ;)