Right time to train (Merged 2011)

[KAG]

We have been speaking a while back about the difficulties to get a pilot job for a new CPL (I know you like to call it "frozen ATPL"...) when entering the market.

I have been saying, after the 2008 huge recession, that some opportunities would pop up, and that even if I didn't beleive in this career choice for the next half century (fuel and other reasons), I was quite optimistic for the very short term. I use to say a year or two back that "times seem to be hard, but that's the best we will get from now on".
Somebody who started training in 2008, in the middle of the recession, would have made a smart move, as 2010 and 2011 have seen real opportunities coming up around, not for everybody, sure, but still... That's what I was thinking back then, and that's what I still think.

-First we had Susi air and their crash a few days back (one possibility to get your first job if you want to cross the world and fly real airplanes) .
-AA then got into some difficulties.
-India and China economy are slowing down.
-We are experiencing in the west a tricky debt crisis (I know some people think it is convenient to call it Euro crisis, but don't be fooled, that's really a whole werstern world debt crisis)
-Fuel doesn't want to go bellow $100 a baril.

Individualy, those are only signs, but as a whole that's a clear message which could be, for the ones who have to pay for their CPL:

TIME TO SAVE YOUR MONEY AND AVOID TRAINING.

You have been warned.

[bluearrow]

Thanks KAG i won't be adhering to your advice but others might. The problem for me is that i am too far along however if i was starting out now i definitely wouldn't start.

:ugh:

[goldenman]

KAG is right, except, avoid training in aviation, not in other fields...

the world still need mechanic, doctor, cashiers, .....get a training where you don't need to pay huge loan back.
Pilot is not a profession but a hobby, you just need to see the line of desperate pilots ready to give their money just for a few miserable hours to fill their empty logbook(well,I was like them).:{

[Poeli]

As a wannabe for already 5 years it's hard but it most probably is true. It makes me angry and sad at the same time realising I probably never fly as a daily job. I just can't deny that there is a huge problem in the (airline) world.

But hey, we still have the PPL and maybe even IFR we can go for:cool:

[ShyTorque]

I get the idea. Everyone else cancels their training. KAG gets the job. Nice try :ok:

[bluearrow]

I get the idea. Everyone else cancels their training. KAG gets the job. Nice try http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/thumbs.gif

sssshhhhhh ;)

[CharlieTangoZulu]

is it really that hard?! i mean, i'm in australia right now sweating my *** off to get money and i'll start at the end of next year the licenses, somewhere, it doesn't matter now, but the point is that i'm so impressed that KAG warned us NOT to start the training and apart all the passionate people in this forum they still keep saying not do it!

it's a little sad but quite sure it's true, never mind. have you got a dream? just follow it

[Obi_Wan]

The fuel costs mentioned here are nothing like the fuel crisis of the 70s. The automotive and combustion engine industries are barely recognisable from what they were 10/15 years ago, the aviation industry will and is following suit in terms of focus on economy, efficiency and profitability.

The Chinese economy is slowing, yes, but only now that it is the second largest in the world, and is due to pass the US in the next decade, so no surprise it's slowing,

We will continue to need pilots as much as the mechanics and doctors mentioned in a previous post. Western companies are investing millions of dollars in China and India on a weekly basis. These companies spend thousands of dollars every month flying their people to/from China and India, and products will continue to pour out of these countries too.

The fat lady hasn’t even got dressed, let alone drawn breath to start her song.

[KAG]

ShyTorque: I get the idea. Everyone else cancels their training. KAG gets the job. Nice try
I appreciate the humor ;)

However to be clear: I am not sure a new CPL holder could be in the situation I am right now, but who knows...

You wrote: "cancel their training", well I have not said exactly that, the word "project" is missing. Project means you haven't started yet, and you are still at the decision making process step.

And this is a general statement I am doing, of course many exceptions apply.

We are supposed to be free, not to be blind.


My young padawan: tell me more about China, it would be interesting to learn some more from you...

You said:The Chinese economy is slowing, yes, but only now that it is the second largest in the world, and is due to pass the US in the next decade, so no surprise it's slowing.
Whatever the reason, it is still slowing down.

The fuel costs mentioned here are nothing like the fuel crisis of the 70s. Nothing like the 70s... Except we are in 2011. In 41 years maybe something have changed? What do you think? More or less fuel reserve than 41 years ago?

[Bealzebub]

Well here is some news to cheer you up a bit.

At least one major UK training provider is sending people who only 15 months ago had little or no flying experience at all, for interviews with at least 2 major UK airlines and a one major Middle Eastern carrier.

In some cases those pilots may only have 14 days between completing their I.R's and attending for interviews for job placements on airliners starting early in the new year.

The number of placements is significant.

You see, and as I have been saying for quite a long time, it is all about what you as a customer want, and what the end goal employers want. Only by understanding these factors can you realistically come up with a game plan that stands a good chance of success.

If you have gone about this in a format that the employers are demanding, then now is in fact a very good time to be graduating from the right establishments. Whether that will be the case in 2 or 3 years time, I couldn't predict, but I would still suggest that is the where the smart money goes.

[KAG]

Yeah Bealzebub, it shows exactly the post-recession opportunities I was talking about in my first post just above. Please allow me to quote myself, the post #1, at the very top of this thread:Somebody who started training in 2008, in the middle of the recession, would have made a smart move, as 2010 and 2011 have seen real opportunities coming up around, not for everybody, sure, but still...



Those pilot students haven't started training after the first of december 2011 right? Because that's about those kind of person we are talking about in this thread.

Cheer up future pilot students? The training industry is already doing it, I don't beleive this is the pprune task.

[Bealzebub]

Those pilot students haven't started training after the first of december 2011 right?
No, the ones I am referring to, all started in the second half of 2010 (last year). However I am aware of at least 14 from the same source who are just about to start training (December 2011) and have already been pre-selected for placement in early 2013. Then of course there are the BA FPP cadets who within a few months, will follow a similar route.

[goldenman]

have already been pre-selected for placement in early 2013. it doesn't mean they will have a job, and doesn't mean they will be paid.

This job, I think, it's not worth any more.Better stay at home and let them kill eachover for their dream job.

I spent a lot of money and what I see is more guys ready to pay to work, fly for peanuts, and just willing to be screwed, and they all bend over and over just for a jet position(push button job).

I let you know that I have spent some times in Asia, paid the airline for line training, and now I am back from the begining looking for my first paid job, and need to maintain this stupid Airbus rating, and no one want me, because my license is old of 3 months, and I am sick to pay and I can not even fly something smaller, because my SEP and multi are expired. I can not renew all ratings plus medical,...

Have fun losing your money.!!if you train now, you will be sorry in 2 years.
believe me, it s much better to learn a real job like carpenter, mechanic, office work, IT, plumbing, doctor, vet, lawyer,... than trying to be a pilot and feel sorry when the entire market aviation industry will be very low cost, or pay to fly, or out of business like astreus and others.

There is simply no future, and no return on investment really.
Just look at bloomberg and TV once a day, and you will understand what I am talking about..

[bluearrow]

because my SEP ar multi are expiredWhy don't you renew them so you can fly the something smaller?

Get a job even if it's stocking shelves at your local supermarket and keep current. Something will turn up! ;)

[goldenman]

because I have no job, no money, and I am sick to pay for a job which pay nothing!!

[CPL]

:ugh: :ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh:

[Bealzebub]

it doesn't mean they will have a job, and doesn't mean they will be paid.

Whilst it is certainly true that there are no absolute guarantees, it is also very likely that they will have a job and they will be paid. Luck certainly plays a big part, but it is also about the choices you make.

Far too many people fail to adapt to the realities of the market, believing that they can save a buck here and there and the market will adapt to suit them.

Buying type ratings and line training from some dodgy outfit in a country whose airlines are normally internationally blacklisted, may well be an option for some, however It is not a resource that many companies are likely to find attractive.

People are taking a very significant risk, and they need to research what they want from their own goals. They need to look where their target employers are recruiting from. They then need to consider how they might set about entering those markets.

These are "wannabe" forums. It is a very difficult marketplace. There are far too many would be aspirants for the number of realistic placements available, always are and always have been. It is an expensive pursuit, and always has been. It is a marketplace that expands and contracts with the seasons. It is an evolving marketplace no matter how unattractive some may find that evolution.

For the resourceful, adaptable, intelligent, and lucky, there are routes into airline flying. Those pilots are paid and they have careers that do enable them to repay their training investments in a relatively short time. That I can be sure of, because I work with them. however it is small section of the overall market.

Personally, I don't care if people habit these forums to fulfill a fantasy. I don't care if they train, don't train, waste money, fail or succeed. From a position of experience within the industry, I can tell you the way it is in this segment of that industry. The advice is free, so take it or leave it. I would however aver that it is correct.

[bluearrow]

Smart choice Taylor you'll go far :ok:

[kelly.richie]

i have wanted to be a pilot now for 2 years but i was an apprentice electrician so i thought i would stick out my apprenticeship and get qualified. Now that i am qualified i am looking back into getting my CPL but many posts i have read have stated not to take it up as a career and after i went for my first introductory flight today and my flight instructor even said he no longer fly's full time as he said it was too hard to get a job. I now don't know what to do as i do not want to be an electrician for rest of my life.

[compressor stall]

Kelly, your instructor is a goose. Times have never been so good for newbies getting a job in aviation in Australia.

[Guru8904]

i have wanted to be a pilot now for 2 years but i was an apprentice electrician so i thought i would stick out my apprenticeship and get qualified. Now that i am qualified i am looking back into getting my CPL but many posts i have read have stated not to take it up as a career and after i went for my first introductory flight today and my flight instructor even said he no longer fly's full time as he said it was too hard to get a job. I now don't know what to do as i do not want to be an electrician for rest of my life.
Listen to the inner voice of your heart and follow it. At the same time, tell your mind to start working on how to fulfill your heart's desire while taking calculated risks. That's what life is all about and that's what most of us have done before you. Be brave but not stupid, be passionate but not illogical, be crazy but not mad, be firm but not blind and if you can do all that, then you'd achieve whatever you desire............be a pilot, not an electrician.

Good luck.

[kelly.richie]

cheers for the advice as i will be doing it part time i am looking at starting my ppl part time early new years :)

[KAG]

Bealzebub: Personally, I don't care if people habit these forums to fulfill a fantasy. I don't care if they train, don't train, waste money, fail or succeed. From a position of experience within the industry, I can tell you the way it is in this segment of that industry. The advice is free, so take it or leave it. I would however aver that it is correct.
You don't care but you care giving advice? What is clearly your advice here?

And about the 14 students or so you know they found a job (great for them!), do you have any position available for the future pilot students reading this thread? You gave them some hope afterall, it would be good to deliver.


I beleive today is the perfect time to save some money and find a job. Because I can feel the economic times ahead of us won't care if you have a CPL or not, your financial situation will be important.
Let's say that you make a huge loan with you parent's help, and your father then lose his job (a scenario possible today and tomorrow), and on top of that: no job for yourself.

That's why I spoke about the ones who have to pay for their CPL only in the first post of this thread.

Further more, the oil price (we forgot about it due to the government debt crisis, but the price is still hurting the airline in some ways) didn't go down. Even now with the west close to a recession, the oil remains expansive. Not even to mention that for the long term (20 years maybe less according to some, so before your retirement) the oil reserve are beleived to be not enough to continue the way we are living now energy wise.

Somebody wrote: "follow your dreams". Do you honestly beleive that this "image" have not been used enough by the training industry for YEARS so that you have to remind it to some young person that may have forgotten it or not seen it?
This is the difference between being a kid/teenager and adult: an adult is free, he is not his dream's slave. That's a psychological condition. You dream to marry Nicole Kidman, you end up marrying your highschool sweet heart, who might be at the end not a bad choice, pretenting you had the choice.

Of course we have to do our best. Of course we have to reach some goals in our life. Of course we have to be positive. In order to do it, we have to adapt and accept the reality to avoid a financial bankrupt that might put down many of the others opportunities you have in the realistic and real life.

Thousands of CPL holders (you call it "frozen ATPL") are without job right now (and will never find one). Times ahead don't look good for the airline industry, especially in the western world (when I say don't look good, my meaning is: not as good as today, today's being already quite messed up already).

I won't even discuss the fact that some are paying to work, it has become so terrible for some pilot that it's not even healthy anymore to speak about it.

Point is: if you start your training today, of course you might find a job in the future! But most likely not, so investing a huge amount of money in it looks like a gamble. Is that what future pilots became, money gambler? It doesn't make sense right? So when it doesn't make sense, better to avoid it if possible, that's common sense ;)


Where I work (not in a western country), we have hired people for years, but mostly local people, or foreigner captain who like adventure, not really the definition of the standard newly CPL holder.

[Poeli]

KAG, how are you looking at modular training with a degree (engineering) next to it? I mean if I make sure I have the money before starting flight training (PPL in a local flying club) it can't be that bad.
If I feel after some hour building (easily can take a year of two) I want to go on and go for it I still can do it. Without debts. Off course it's money I would give to flight schools and never see it back. But at the same time, if you take flight training it should be something you love. If it doesn't work out I'd have lost a lot of money, but without being in red. And with quite secure job opportunities as an engineer (don't have any loans of debts to get this degree). It would have been a very expensive hobby.

I also had the chance to start integrated flight training and also cancelled it. It was a hard but right decision.
For the last 5 years I've been looking for which path I have to follow. Having a degree (and also very important: work expierence with this degree) is the way to go for me imo. But it's not that I can snap my fingers and put the flying out of my head. Surely, it's probably not the wisest thing to do. But why not try it... Some people spend €50 k on a nice Porsche in their life, some on flight training. As long as they can live and pay everything (whether it's the porsche or flying, living and ect) I don't see the problem.

[goldenman]

Hello,

There no way to make money in this biz, even paid, you can not pay back your loan, debts, and have a life.

most airlines now pay 2000E max, based near an international airport, you can not survive unless to live with your parents or in a caravan.

Even a flight instructor in UK, doesn't make enough, can barely survive in summer, but in winter time, there are no much flight going on, and I know many FIs who have simply given up because they told me they can not live with 1000 euro a month.

The problems in this business are: training is too expensive, too many pilots looking, low paid salary, and now pilots have to pay for everything.

I think in 5 years, they will hire pilot with a PPL only and a type rating , Commercial pilot is not a profession anymore, but a hobby.

I think the CAA should review their license and erase the world CPL, and replace by something like MPL for monkey pilot license, ...

[KAG]

Poeli: Without debts.
At least you are gambling with the money you have.
In addition you can get a nice job in an other field (which is good, but might prevent you to go abroad and/or start on small airplanes with low salaries for example).

We cannot speak about all different cases with one sentence, I was making a general statement in this thread, it doesn't apply to EVERYBODY, but to MOST of them.

I would say your situation looks ok, in addition if you are smart, courageous and lucky, well...

[Bealzebub]

And about the 14 students or so you know they found a job (great for them!), do you have any position available for the future pilot students reading this thread? You gave them some hope afterall, it would be good to deliver.

Perhaps you didn't understand. These 14 are students just about to start training. To repeat what I said:
However I am aware of at least 14 from the same source who are just about to start training (December 2011) and have already been pre-selected for placement in early 2013. Then of course there are the BA FPP cadets who within a few months, will follow a similar route.

There are jobs and there are placements. Success can be very dependent on your goals and the methods used to achieve them.

[Sassy91]

Stop bringing "fuel crisis" into every thread people. Yes the fuel is depleting but I am almost sure that there is another fuel source out there. Can you imagine if some company came out and said "hey we have got a factory which makes fuel out of sea water and it costs 5c a litre"? Can you imagine the HUGE economical MELTDOWN that its going to create???

The world economy is RUN by oil companies/governments.

If fuel becomes so expensive that airlines cant afford it, trust me you being a lawyer or doctor isn't going isn't going to help you in terms of job security because there is NOT going to be a civilized world out there. Everyone is going to be fighting to try and survive. The proportions of such crisis will be BIBLICAL.

So don't make a decision just because the world may running out of oil.

[KAG]

Bealzebub:Perhaps you didn't understand. These 14 are students just about to start training.
Sorry I don't understand your point, neither what you have to offer.
What do you want us to do for your 14 student pilots? Congratulates them here? What else?



Success can be very dependent on your goals and the methods used to achieve them.

Yeah right. We haven't thought about that one. Thanks. It gets clearer suddenly.

If you have a job offer, please don't restrain yourself, go ahead, thousands of CPL holder would love to get a job from you.


Sassy91: So don't make a decision just because the world may running out of oil.
True. Rather make a decision because the airline industry might run out of opportunities.

[Bealzebub]

Kag,

I appreciate that English probably isn't your first language, but you are arguing simply for the sake of arguing, rather than reading what is written both in its entirety and in full context.

I appreciate that you seem to do this on a number of threads, but if you can put sarcasm and silly comment aside for a moment, what is it you are asking?

[KAG]

I appreciate that English probably isn't your first language

I was waiting that one... When there is nothing else to say, one still want to answer something.

There is no sarcasm, I just don't understand your comments in this thread.
You tell us there are jobs, but don't want to give any.

Some people are in terrible situation already, it might be even worse in the next future the way I see it (of course I could be wrong, let's hope it) so that you don't need to come here and explain us some new pilot have a job. Good for them!

But we are sure some people got and will get jobs, everybody is convinced about that, I don't even think there is a doubt about it, so what is your advice and what do you have to offer? Because we don't speak about jobs to wannabes (among them more and more who cannot find a pilot job, with a more and more expensive training) like that without something to offer. Otherwise that's unhealthy teasing.

[Bealzebub]

Ok, I will try.

You have started a thread that is summed up by telling wanabees that:
Individualy, those are only signs, but as a whole that's a clear message which could be, for the ones who have to pay for their CPL:

TIME TO SAVE YOUR MONEY AND AVOID TRAINING.

You have been warned.

Almost everybody has to pay for their CPL, and despite your experiences and the many, many cautionary statements we make on these forums, there are airline jobs for a few of those that follow the right routes.

I have provided actual examples of which I am aware, in order to substantiate that point, rather than provide anecdotal evidence or simply reel off cliches. Clearly for the people who are finding placement or opportunities it isn't a case of:
TIME TO SAVE YOUR MONEY AND AVOID TRAINING. You have been warned.

That may well be your viewpoint, and it may well be good advice for many people, however it simply isn't the whole picture.

By presenting another snapshot of where jobs and placements are actually occuring, doesn't to anybody of average intelligence, even suggest it is me gifting those jobs or placements, but simply reporting them.

But we are sure some people got and will get jobs, everybody is convinced about that, I don't even think there is a doubt about it, so what is your advice and what do you have to offer? Because we don't speak about jobs to wannabes (among them more and more who cannot find a pilot job, with a more and more expensive training) like that without something to offer. Otherwise that's unhealthy teasing.

What I have said many times on these forums is that there are opportunities for low houred pilots, but the end goal determines the best route to that goal. Regular readers of these forums will probably be aware of both the specifics and the generalities. From a quick search, I can see that you generally restrict yourself to the "hamsterwheel" type threads in the Jetblast forum. That helps in understanding your postings on this thread. If you do a little research of your own, you might better understand why I am challenging your assertion to a limited degree, within the the context of this thread.

These are wannabe forums, for wannabe pilots. Whether they should be wannabe plumbers or wannabe anything else, isn't what brought them here to this forum. It is a very difficult industry to break into, and most would be aspirants will fall by the wayside. That has been the case for decades. In the last 15 years, the airline industry has metamorphosised into a different animal for wannabes. Couple that with the economic changes that are always a cyclical factor, and you have the present day situation, where the "breaks" only really exist if you have followed the right routes into the industry. It is not a reality many people are happy to accept, but it is a reality nonetheless.

There are jobs and there are openings for low houred pilots. This as one of the wannabes forums is where those pilots might reside. The jobs and placements are relatively few compared to the number of would be hopefuls. I have said it many times on these forums, but research the options very carefully. You might want to do that yourself, before embarking on your next tirade.

[KAG]

If we speak about recent times, then I would say in 2008 in the middle of recession (like I have been advocating since the begining here on pprune).

And saying "good time" is a bit too much I beleive, giving a bit more chances would be more accurate.

During 2003/2004, it was a good time to train to, when everything was at its lowest.

If you speak about time during the year, that's different.

If you want to be instructor, you should finish your training during the winter to be able to start with the spring.
Too many instructor student found themselves ready at the end of the summer with no job, they gave up afterwards, timing can be tricky sometimes.

I would wait a bit, save money. If we get in an other recession next year, I would start my training at that time, because I beleive recession always stop. Right now we are, I believe, just before a recession, or at least big economic problems.
Wait to be in the middle of it to start. In addition your training will be cheaper and the instructor more available (I am not saying this is booming right now...).

[Bealzebub]

It is not as simple as that.

It depends what you want to achieve and in what timescale, and with what ability and budget.

A full time course of ab-initio training to a CPL/IR takes the best part of two years. However your experience level at that point is of precious little interest to most airlines. Even if that were not the reality, the market at this level is super-saturated.

If airline flying at the fATPL 200 hour level is your goal. The best shot at the very limited number of opportunities would be through a cadet pilot programme pursuant to, or affiliated with one of the major integrated training schools.

Look at where you want to be. Then look at where those airlines actually recruit their pilots from, and at what minimum experience levels, bearing in mind that the intense competition in the marketplace is likely to result in recruitment at substantially higher levels than simply the minimum requirements. Do those airlines have cadet programmes? Who do they operate them in conjunction with?

There are likely to be people who will start their training this month who will be flying for an airline in 20 months time. There are also likely to be many many more who will not be.

The economy is an important factor in all forms of employment opportunity, but don't become singularly focused on it being the only one. It is a very complex, dynamic and evolving industry at the ab-initio level, and it needs to be researched very carefully indeed.

[KAG]

Well... I agree.

But who wouldn't right? What did you say that nobody else aready know?
It's fine. We learnt nothing reading you, but at least we speak about the subject.

I say this is not the time to spend money for a CPL, I still don't understand what's your clear position about that, the only thing I am sure is that you have no job to offer to the readers here.

Cheers.

[Bealzebub]

Well, no clearly you didn't.

However my inbox would suggest that plenty of people do, and as this is the wannabes forum, that is the target group, not you.

I can't keep repeating myself simply because you prefer to argue rather than research. If you don't understand, that is unfortunate.

[ShyTorque]

I was previously warned off trying to achieve an aviation career. All sorts of people said I would never make it, for all sorts of reasons, including the financial downturn, the "fuel crisis" and the competition being too fierce. I did make it.

That was in 1973. I've been flying for a living since 1977. I did once have to relocate when jobs in my my part of the world were hard to find and I didn't have sufficient experience for the ones that were available. I took my family of five 6,000 miles to a place where a job was available to me. When that job finished, we relocated again.

[KAG]

Bealzebub: I understand your point in fact, sorry for being an a*shole.


Shytorque I was previously warned off trying to achieve an aviation career. All sorts of people said I would never make it, for all sorts of reasons, including the financial downturn, the "fuel crisis" and the competition being too fierce. I did make it.

That was in 1973. I've been flying for a living since 1977. I did once have to relocate when jobs in my my part of the world were hard to find and I didn't have sufficient experience for the ones that were available. I took my family of five 6,000 miles to a place where a job was available to me. When that job finished, we relocated again.
As long as I can see in the past we can read advertisement and articles concerning PILOT SHORTAGE and how much great it is to become an airline pilot.
Anyway, 1973, interesting. This is true we had an oil crisis, then everything came back to normal, it has to be taken into account. However there is the debt crisis in addition today...
What is your advice in 2011 for a 20 years old or so person who might have a plan to become a pilot?



-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EDITED: got rid of the irrelevant question to bealzebub.

[BUGS/BEARINGS/BOXES]

KAG - these people who have in your opinion wasted money on a CPL are getting jobs in Qatar for one. And with a new wide body every 28 days, that's a lot of recruiting.

Not every person holding a piece of paper issued by a licensing authority will get a job. They simply won't meet the companies requirements or culture. Rather be turned down then get a job only to be miserable. Companies need pilots to become type rated and signed off on line by a specific date. Recruitment is a risk management exercise for the recruiting company. No one is owed a job just because they paid for a course and license.

Oil price a driver for recruitment???? No. Passenger demand? Yes. Thus the economy is the main concern for companies who wish to expand. Will they recoup the cost from planes full of pax or cargo. Aircraft need pilots and as we get older we have a nasty habit of becoming somewhat dead, or past it to hold a medical. Natural attrition drives recruitment also. No wannabe or airline has a crystal ball to tell when the world will recover, if at all. However the longer airlines stay idle with their plans, the quicker their Market share reduces and they go under. Just my opinion.

Oh and as to whichever hell hole you are in that has made you bitter, a lack of ICAO level 6 English might prevent a return to the western world. Spend more time with English then ranting on pprune eh?

[pudoc]

I'm probably going to be shot for this but what I don't understand is this:

Gulf Daily News » World News » PILOT CRISIS HITS AIRLINES (http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/NewsDetails.aspx?storyid=318970)

Ok it's one source, but it's not the only place I've read things like this. I read something similar from an article published by ICAO.

And quoting:

To keep up with growth and replace retiring pilots, the International Civil Aviation Organisation forecasts Asia will need 229,676 pilots over the next two decades, up from 50,344 last year.

So if this true. Why stop this pilot training? What am I missing?

Surely this desperation is going to cause airlines in the ME and Asia to try an attract as many pilots as possible by better T&Cs and lowering pilot requirements?

[goldenman]

forecasts Asia will need 229,676 pilots over the next two decadesand how they come to this exact number when they don't know what the future will be?


this is for asia and ME, not for EU citizen.

same thing happens with China, they shout everywhere that they need pilots, then they train chinese cadets pilots from 0 hours to A320 for Schenzen Airline and others, where do you see EU copilots in china with a JAA CPL flying in china?

Immigration will never let you fly there unless you are captain with lot of experience. All these stories about guys working at qatar after 500h jet , is just a rumor, or it' s just for guys having double nationalities.

Do you know why captains go to china or ME? because we have no job in Europe for them.:ouch:

Definitively they are not interested by us,and in 2 years, it will be the same.
There is no pilot shortage in this world;it's a fact proven since these last 30 years.

You will probably finish like me, jobless, type rating with 500h on type, and nobody want you.

And for the one who don't belive me, where do you see they need pilots with just a cpl...? look at the magazines or on the net, there is absolutely no demand for pilots unless you are a US citizen or captain with lot of experience.

[goldenman]

2025!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[zondaracer]

Billywhu, don't Believe everything the media says, especially when it comes to aviation. I think those numbers are based on Boeing's future predictions from half a year ago, and Boeing are trying to sell airplanes.

http://www.pprune.org/terms-endearment/470749-pilot-crisis-hits-airlines.html#post6841531

There was an article in USA Today about the "future pilot shortage" and the people they interviewed were from the flying schools. Don't you think that they also benefit from articles like that?

http://www.pprune.org/interviews-jobs-sponsorship/458393-demand-airline-pilots-set-soar.html


Also, these predictions were based on the rate of growth around the world, assuming that growth would never slow down. It is assuming that oil prices dont increase, assuming there will never be a large disruption of air travel on the scale of an icelandic volcano or September 11 event. We are already seeing a slow down in the economy.

[KAG]

BugsBearing/boxes:Oh and as to whichever hell hole you are in that has made you bitter, a lack of ICAO level 6 English might prevent a return to the western world. Spend more time with English then ranting on PPRuNe eh?

I have flown for companies based on 3 different continents, one being north america, and ferried airplanes around the world. I today work for an airline in Asia.
I am able and entitled to do the radio communications in 3 different languages, one of them being the first spoken language in the world: chinese, what about you?

I agree with the 2 posters above, goldenman and zondaracer.


Billywhu: I have posted in the thread you gave us, I am flying in Asia, you will have my viewpoint if you read the first page of the thread.

[Citationcj2]

Times are very hard indeed. plenty of fully qualifed pilots out there now working in supermarkets unable to got a job in the industry:(

[pudoc]

Thanks guys. Your explanations make sense. I didn't think the articles were right after reading info on here but I couldn't put a reason on it.

Glad I'm not eager to fly a jet, but even so looks like I'm going to pause my training for a while.

[KAG]

No problems.

We regularly hire foreigner (expat) captains though. But more than 80% fail either the sim check, either the medical.
If you are captain, your chance are increasing dramatically, for a first officer to be hired in some part of Asia, it's really more difficult (at least mainland, Hongkong, Macau that's an other story) and you really need to make the difference.

[Sassy91]

Times are very hard indeed. plenty of fully qualifed pilots out there now working in supermarkets unable to got a job in the industry

I don't think people with freshly minted CPL's should be calling themselves fully qualified pilots until they get a job.

[DauphinDude]

Goldenman: You are wrong. Expats ARE flying all over the globe, and so will I within the next 2 months. I am from a rather small European country, but I know A LOT of people whom have sought work outside Europe, and found it! I myself are a low timer and I got a gig in China as a copilot on a twin turbine AC, typerating payed and a very reasonable paycheck.

It is all about networking.

[Valmont]

Speaking for myself (FAA Commercial low timer), i started training in 2010 and i'm done right now. I can say that i wouldn't have done it unless i had a great opportunity. To backup KAG's thoughts, most of my friends that i met during my training are out of job (both FAA & JAA CPL's) since they're done, only one of them got a job and he's almost in the same case as I am. If you got a green card or are an american citizen, that's something else..

[Luke SkyToddler]

1) It is highly highly highly unlikely that there will ever be a "shortage" of 200 hour pilots in the western world. If such a situation did arise, it would be extremely short term. There may indeed be a shortage of F/Os in places like China but they'll still train their own nationals, hire high time type rated F/Os, or even hire expat captains to sit in the RHS, before they'll take inexperienced guys from outside.

2) It is absolutely impossible for a wannabe or even an airline itself, to look 18 months / two or more years into the future and predict what's going to happen with pilot hiring.

3) Therefore, there is no "best time" to train. You're better to just pile in and get the license but for Gods sake set aside some money to keep yourself current after training complete, possibly even for several years. Hope for the best, but plan for the worst.

[KAG]

Good point Luke.

3) Therefore, there is no "best time" to train. "Best time" to train could not exist like you affirm, this is highly possible, however worst time to train might be right now...

[KAG]

Dauphin Dude: smart move. I have been flying in china for many years, it has its interesting parts...
Have you passed the medical yet?
Anyway, you go were the job and good conditions are, good decision.

However let's not fool the thousands of wannabes here, the middle east and Asia won't hire you all, you can be sure about that.

Were I work most of the captain fail the hiring process, and we accept no F/O... In addition for the ones up to speed: the economy in India and China are slowing down right now... Hope it doesn't mean hard time ahead in Asia, but who knows...

Valmont: my thread is precisely for guys like you and your flight school mate, and not for the ones finding a way that is more an exception than the general rule. I am sorry to hear about your situation, and I hope you have no loan. Stay positive, try to get a bush job in some country, or maybe get an instructor rating to teach in an economic-booming country... But I realise that's not easy and most of the new CPL holders won't have any job.

What I can see right now it that the situation is getting worse, escpecially in the west, so tomorrow might be even more difficult, let's hope I am wrong.

[Da-20 monkey]

Does anyone have a working crystal ball for sale? I need one! :E

I had to cancel my integrated course because I could not get a loan. Now I am without debt, first pass on ATPL subjects, 30 or so flight hours and no idea what's a good thing to do now:confused:

Trying to become a trainee ATC'er is one idea, but not many pass the selection for this I think:rolleyes:

Ah well, we'll see what happens..

[bluearrow]

I would say now is because this is when some flight schools are in greatest need of your business. I just negotiated a fantastic training deal ;)

Do your own research and make the call :ok:

[G CEXO]

I remember back in 2005 when I was looking into starting my training and someone said to me:

" G CEXO, yes it's true, planning is everything and luck does play a big part in being successful. However, if you don't have the license then you can't get the job "


Sometimes in life, you eventually have to bite the bullet.

[KAG]

Blue arrow: I just negotiated a fantastic training deal
What do you call a fantastic deal exactly? How much for your CPL?

Anyway, that's what I was saying in my first post in this thread, last sentence: Right now we are, I believe, just before a recession, or at least big economic problems.
Wait to be in the middle of it to start. In addition your training will be cheaper and the instructor more available (I am not saying this is booming right now...).

Hard times are ahead it seems, the best deals are ahead too. Right now is still uncertainty for everybody.


G CEXO: " G CEXO, yes it's true, planning is everything and luck does play a big part in being successful. However, if you don't have the license then you can't get the job "
Where I come from, this is the same way the national lottery advertize: it you don't buy your ticket, you cannot win.

In a way this is true. True but sad that we reached that point and way of thinking concerning a career.

[goldenman]

it you don't buy your ticket, you cannot win.yes, except a lottery ticket costs 2-3 euro and you can make 25 millions euro,
in aviation you pay 150'000 euro and you make no money at the end.

Pilots are just a bunch of desperate dreamers, they will do anything just to get a few hours on a jet, sacrifice their life, family,and all their saving ...so many bankrupt pilots already, and airlines receiving thousand of CV they don't want.
They think by paying hundred of thousand of euro, airlines will be interested by them, they don't, they are just interested to buy more fuel with your money.



my God, what they teach you at school?just spend money? I mean some of you have worked in their life?