Thomas Cook financial woes

[Aircrew101]

BBC News - Thomas Cook shares dive on news of bank talks (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/mobile/business-15832438)

[FR-]

Could well be a take over target, its just come out of its 4th auction of the day at 14p, will give it a market cap of 122M, which is very cheap.

fr-

[Buster the Bear]

Thomas Cook has delayed the announcement of its financial results because of a “deterioration of trading” in the last few weeks and is in talks with its banks to ensure it has enough cash to see it through the rest of the year.

To me, that does not sound too good!

[uklad007]

It doesnt sound good (I think they have an $800mn credit facility and a $100mn+ loan as per news reports).
At $122mn market cap it does seem small but i cant see who would come in and buy it as they have to take on the debt.
One news report talked of a collapse of bookings in France, Belgium and Russia (another talked of Egypt crisis is to blame on low winter bookings).
It would be interesting to understand how the UK/Germany is doing - surely its two biggest markets and Scandinavia too - also what impact the recent merging of its uk retail business with Co-op had on its debt pile.
I just cant see it being bought out fully (maybe they may sell of some group companies or pull out of a market) and i cant see it going under, companies often extend / re-negotiate their debt but i do see some sort of restructuring needed to its operations - hopefully with minimal impact on the hardworking employees :(
I think TUI's shares also dropped in value due to Thomas Cooks dropping today too.

[paully]

The share price drop this morning does seem a little overdone, but from the markets point of view it is currently without a CEO, the last one was sacked in August ( long overdue by all accounts), it is busily reducing its fleet size, its locked in a redundancy argument with its cabin crews and now its not publishing its accounts. Its back office arrangements appear haphazard and some of its European offshoots just bleed money.

The price drop probably reflects the fears the markets have had for some time regarding this firm and this latest refinancing requirement is the proverbial straw.

Whilst no one is too big to fail, its an iconic brand going very cheap. Lets hope for the best, the airline crews are fantastic..Great people. Good luck:ok:

[10W]

Thomas Cook don't have a 6% share in NATS though. They are part of an airline consortium who between them own the 6%. Their share is not open to trade in the open market and could only be sold to someone else in the consortium, and requires approval from the Government. Whether any of the other airlines have the appetite, or the spare cash, remains to be seen. It's certainly not a quick hit to help them out of the mire.

[FR-]

I dont see it has an over reaction, its price target has also been dropped to 10p from 42p. Over the last year its share price has dropped from 205 down to just under 10p this morning, 95% in less than 12 months. So this morning share holders got this bad news, and thought sod it im going to cut my loss, or buy more and average down.

My concern is what is this doing for Consumer Confidence? The extra funding should of be sorted months ago. I can only guess from needing the extra funds that forward bookings are low.

Also was it wise to give such a good dividend, 10.75?
fr-

[airvanman]

I can't see the banks chucking more money at them. How will it get/look any better for next year? In the UK Thomson, Monarch, Jet2, EZY & RYR etc I'm sure fill in some of the gaps if TCX go under? The shorthaul market is dead for the old travel company airlines. It will be a sad day if they do go. Very grim times ahead for all I think?

[fmgc]

I can't see them going under.

I have just bought £250 of TCG shares, seem very cheap to me.

[Narrow Runway]

Everyone is far too simplistic.

Thomas Cook is FAR more than just Thomas Cook Airlines, or a UK tour operator.

It has far reaching, tangled, tentacle like reaches and these have got badly wound up in Russia, France, Belgium and all sorts of other exotic markets.

We are in the middle of a perfect storm, and this is just the beginning. Unfortunately, Thomas Cook will not survive this in its current shape.

The only options are:

1) A trade sale and subsequent asset strip;
2) A debt for equity swap (Banks lend more money to repay debt, but assume a MASSIVE equity holding in the company in return thereby wiping out the remaining value for remaining shareholders), or;
3) It is bankrupt.

And seeing as the banks have no money, or appetite for increased lending, I'd say the writing is on the wall.

In my view, it is 1/3 on option 1 and 2/3 on option 3.

Very sad indeed.

[sky9]

So you didn't bet your house on it.

[fmgc]

It's a small house! :}

[Narrow Runway]

Very smart sky9, but I was trying to present likelihoods for 2 scenarios from 3.

I did infer that i think option 2 to be unlikely.

Therefore, I could have bet the house on it, as the "book" is not covered.

However, on hindsight, I actually think it is more likely to be bought by trade than be bankrupt. At least I hope so.

Good luck to everyone there. I enjoyed my 6 years in TCX.

[daz211]

It makes me so mad how the Media can be allowed to report the way they do, I have no link to Thomas cook or its group infact I have only ever booked one holiday with them but what gets me is how can the media show footage of thomas cook check-in desks saying closed and talk about people getting refunds through Abta if things go wrong...:ugh:

THIS IS DEATH BY MEDIA !!!:mad:!!!

[cldrvr]

Sure the media made their share price drop 95%, Sure the media made the banks reconsider lending 100 million to a company that has a Market Capitalisation less then that and already owes them a multiple of that. They owe 900 mill, want to borrow another 100 and as of today are only worth 90 mill, you do the sums. Even at the start of today, they only had a market capitalisation of less then half the money they owe.

TCG is only going to survive if the banks are willing to throw good money after bad and in the current climate that is not going to happen. So the Company either gets stripped of its assets or goes into administration.

The last thing the directors want to do now is trade knowingly insolvent. Let's see when the delayed financial report comes out and see how bad they are really doing, we only know of the tip of the iceberg.

[fmgc]

THIS IS DEATH BY MEDIA

Too true, and it becomes a self-self-fullfilling prophecy.

Narrow Runway, I think that Sky9 was referring to my modest investment. (Or am I being a tad narcissistic?)

[waco]

Ummmmmmmmm

All this happens when the are "reinvesting" and "automatically transfering" my pension funds.

Please goodness they are not using this money.

[FR-]

Dont worry, 250 is a small amount, but well worth a day trade, I picked a few up myself this morning at 9.65 and sold again at lunch time.
fr-

[endofeng]

Let's hope they sort there problems out soon!


Extract taken from today's Guardian:

Thomas Cook: from net cash to debt crisis in four years! Thomas Cook under Manny Fontenla-Novoa shot itself in the foot with an appallingly timed share buy-back and acquisitions


'Here's a startling fact about Thomas Cook: in September 2007, the company had cash of £394m. Today it finds itself begging its banks for an extra £100m to add to a debt that was about £900m in September this year and could reach £1.5bn by the end of December as seasonal outflows hit. What happened?


The rise and rise of budget airlines and the growth of Expedia and other online travel agents didn't help, as is well known. Less appreciated is the extent to which Thomas Cook, under chief executive Manny Fontenla-Novoa, shot itself in the foot via an appallingly timed share buy-back and an acquisition spree.


The annual report for 2008 records the buy-back: 120m shares bought at an average price of 241p each between March and October of that year at a cost of £290m. For the same sum today, you could buy all Thomas Cook's shares three times over.


On the acquisition front, Fontenla-Novoa was busy looking for "opportunities that can accelerate our journey by capturing growth and value through mergers and acquisitions," as the 2010 annual report put it. A flurry of deals in 2008 brought in Jet Tours (£56m), Canada's TriWest Travel (£57m), Hotels4U (£22m) and Gold Medal (in two batches: £25m plus £47m). Öger, a German operator, arrived for €30m (£25.9m) in 2010.


All the while, Thomas Cook was spending heavily internally. Last year's annual report showed a jump from £79m to £266m in net expenditure on fixed assets and intangibles. Some £66m alone was to buy two aircraft which had previously been leased. The main reason for the rest of the increase, said the report, was investment in IT and an "online travel agent proposition".


The steady rise in the debt position over the past three years is startling: net debt was £292m in September 2008, £675m in September 2009 and £804m in September 2010. Moral of the tale: tour operators should be financed conservatively. Given the number of high-profile failures over the years in this industry, you might assume the lesson had been learned. Not at Thomas Cook.'

[Narrow Runway]

On BBC Radio 5 Live, the discussion from an analyst (not to be believed obviously), is that the equity value of TCG is near zero.

His interpretation is that current share price of around 10p is overvalued.

I agree that this becomes an issue of perception. If punters stop booking with TCG because they consider it too risky (even with ABTA/ATOL bonding), the situation will be even worse in a matter of days.

The best thing for TCG is that hopefully when the market opens on Wednesday, some other company or other will have a bigger problem, and hence hog the headlines.

I wouldn't buy the shares at any price until after the results are issued.

[JSCL]

Oh, I bought this morning when shares were cheap. I think if there's a time to buy, it's now.

It's a 'blip' - they won't recover the 75% straight away, but if you hold out 12 months - you might just be on to a winner. Even in the short term, it'll jump back up again once the bank discussions are over and concluded that the credit is more than fine.

[captplaystation]

How many times these last few years I have said to colleagues "if I did my job as well as those in charge of running this company, we would be pulverised on a hillside a long time ago"
A simple but sad observation on this industry, and no doubt many others.

[Tercel]

The Markets always decide and they have decided Thomas Cook is no longer a going concern (hence share price of 10p). It would be extremely foolhardy to bet against market sentiment, there is a very good reason the markets have dumped all their shares at a huge loss - the company is bust.

Now, bad publicity will ensure TC's few remaining customers will be scared away and I am sure the company will fold by year end. Its a shame, and I wish my friends in the company good luck. Unfortunately this will not be the last charter operator to fold in the current storm, the business model is just flawed - I wander who will be left standing, probably just one charter group? TUI, maybe?

[cwatters]

If I remember correctly they made £300m in profit in the last financial year (ending in September?). Real problem is cashflow and the near £1bn debt.

Funny how times change...

Sun shines on Thomas Cook bond issue | Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1266634/Sun-shines-Thomas-Cook-bond-issue.html)

It's a familiar story these days. You can only sustain debt if the market has confidence in your ability to repay it. It doesn't take much to shake confidence and you're doomed. Governments or at least some are starting to understand but I'm not yet convinced the public does.

[cwatters]

Oh, I bought this morning when shares were cheap. I think if there's a time to buy, it's now.

Well you might be right but perhaps you haven't heard the expression "never try to catch a falling knife". Just remember how many people bailed out of Northern Rock even though their money was secure.

The yield on their 7.75% bond has been rising since last april and I think it's around 14% now so the market has been nervous about their ability to repay for some time.

[neil_2008]

I fear TC won't be the last of the 60/70's package tour companies to disappear in the next 10 years. Fundamentally the likes of Thomas Cook and Thompson are now competing with EZY and FR on 2-3hr short haul sun routes for 7/14 day holiday traffic and with their overheads they can't even hope to break even.

Years ago these far away destinations like Span, Greece, Portugal were considered a long way away (dangerous, full of foreigners you know :) ) and you needed the advice of an agent to get there and survive when you are there.

A high street shop in every town, agents on the ground in the resort, dedicated aricraft, helpers at the airport are all hangovers of this past travel era I'm afraid. With an emerging internet population and the incorporation of internet facing booking engines allowing the average joe to book a room for a fortnight pretty much anywhere in the world, what does the future offer for these old agent based travel companies? The under 30's of today with young families are far more worldy than their parents or grandparents and are much less likely to have to rely on an 'agent' for travel advice when they have the wisdom of the internet at their fingertips.

The tour companies recent survival tactic, in my opinion, is to compete with the locos (& their holiday arms) on the short haul holidays at a loss but to massively inflate the costs of long haul holidays to cover the massive overheads these business have. Looking at flights for 6hr + where they face little competition they are really rather expensive, more so than is necessary. The future, again in my view, is the full service carriers stepping into the breach to serve the longer haul destinations in direct competition with the holiday companies. This will be the death nail for the historical 'tour company' which we see hanging on today.

[GROUNDHOG]

Neil pretty much says it all, there will always be though the small independents who can supply something special which no one else can, or, the big boys are just not interested in. That particular villa on the Geek Island or specialist activities as an example.

[lederhosen]

Consolidation in the travel industry and more specifically among the tour operators makes for an interesting case study. The two big players Thomas Cook and TUI have chased the same mirage of industry domination which they expected to be followed by undreamed of levels of profitability.

In reality they have destroyed shareholder value to an extraordinary extent. Thomas Cook have a billion in debt, a massive fixed overhead retail chain, which they keep adding to....a bit like buying sailing ships in the age of steam! I wonder if Intourist and the Co-op have cashed in the TC shares they got in return?

Their airline fleet is in serious need of replacement. But how are they going to finance it? at least cost effectively. They do not have any money and any sensible leasing company is going to demand a punitive premium.

Now they announce they are effectively running out of cash. This is the travel industry equivalent of your doctor telling you he is under investigation for malpractice but not to worry he still has his license.

A big question for all of us indirectly involved is what impact will this have on their business partners. Air Berlin for example is already shaky. If Thomas Cook go down owing them a packet what happens? It could be like a house of cards.

Of course one man's loss is another man's gain and someone will step in like Airtours after the demise of ILG all those years ago. They of course morphed into Mytravel and many shaky years later are part of Thomas Cook. The song remains the same.

[talkpedlar]

Remember that TCG's customers ALL pay in full 8-10 weeks before they depart.. no-one gets credit so there are no bad debts. TGC in turn (if they're like the other bucket n spaders) pay their hotels, typically, 3-12 months after their customers have returned home. How the hell can thay have cashflow issues if the business is run properly? IMHO they will be very lucky indeed to raise additional trading capital. Good luck to many fine employees all the same. TP

[edi_local]

They still exist thanks to people who can't be bothered booking it all themselves or are still duped into believing that a travel agent is always the cheaper way.

I personally haven't booked a package deal for a few years now and have no intention of doing so as a holiday where I stay in one hotel for 2 weeks no longer appeals to me at all. I think that's part of the problem too. As someone else said, many younger people are more adventurous and will put in the effort to go to places which my mum and dad would ahve considered obscure or just of limits in the 80s. While they spent their 20's jetting off to purpose built resorts in Spain or Greece and spending about £30 a week on food and drink, I'm spending mine in the likes of Tallinn, Cape Town or Toronto. These places were somewhat off the radar to most package dealers in those days and with the lack of LCCs, the likes of TCX could charge whatever they wanted to send people off boozing and sunbathing for a fortnight in the Med and rake it in. Low cost short haul and good value Long Haul flights are so abundant now, more people can go further "on their own" so to speak without the need for someone doing it all for them.

I have had a look at a few package deals in recent months just out of interest and all the stuff that used to be part of the package is now often treated as an add on extra, such as a meal on the plane, sitting next to one another, a transfer to/from the resort, even a bag on some package deals isn't included. These kind of things may make people think twice about booking an all inclusive package which actually excludes some basic things.

Add these things on to flight prices which are more expensive than an LCC, flight times which are not always favourable and higher prices in the Eurozone and it's no wonder that the package deal and those who offer them are losing appeal, at least on the short haul destinations.

[munrobagger]

Bet Thomson will be racking up their prices !!

[750XL]

Just to add to the trouble, I hear one of the Condor 753's in the TCX hangar at MAN suffered a nose gear collapsed, it's now resting ontop of a set of steps...

[Dave Gittins]

Sadly, I don't see TC or anybody in a similar position providing a service I need. As neil_2008 says above, the product is outdated.

I book all our holidays by buying the individual elements seperately which gives me a much wider choice of flight time & accomodation and at a better price.

I don't even know how Expedia and the like survive because I can usually beat them and always can match them.

The only person I know that uses a travel agent is a mate of mine who retired from ICI at 50 (15 years ago) and thus never got into the computer age and hasn't got the internet.

Life moves on .....

[BristolScout]

Sadly, I have to agree with the above. In the internet age, travel agents, like High Street estate agents, must be an endangered species. It's not much fun being a pilot these days.

[Alycidon]

and who would be buying assets at the moment?

[MKY661]

Really hope they get out of the crisis. Wont be the same at MAN without TCX!

[rumair999]

The Media bashing and people on here with great views, clearly does not help the big problems they have.
This is the last thing the UK or our European friends need at this moment in time.

[AIRPORT66]

Well said the best comment i have read all day with reference to Thomascook.Give them a chance to see if they can work something out hope they do.

[Sir George Cayley]

One issue, should there be a sudden collapse, is how many holiday makers are currently in their resorts? And of those, how many are covered by the ATOL bonding scheme?

The fund has taken a bashing over the past couple of years starting with Excel so would this be a challenge? (management speak for OMG:eek:)

SGC

[Mr A Tis]

Well, it wasn't that long ago that Airtours was in the doo doo & many on here talked of its imminent collapse. However, it pulled through a tough time. Eventually merging with JMC to form TCX.
If the banks fear to lose more by pulling the rug, then it won't happen.
Thomas Cook is a pretty large organisation & the airline is only a small part. Like Airtours, they have plenty of other assets that could be disposed of first.

[Metro man]

As neil 2008 says, who needs a travel agent these days for anything other than a specialized trip such as an African safari or trekking in the Himalayas ?

A week in Spain was exotic back in the 1970s, now it isn't even worth mentioning down the pub. Anybody can book a "ham, cheese and tomato" holiday on easyJet or Ryanair, hotel, insurance and car hire added with a couple of mouse clicks.

I've just enjoyed a 5* hotel in Bangkok with breakfast for two at only GBP57 night. Booked through agoda.com: Discount Hotel Reservations Worldwide - Smarter Hotel Booking! (http://www.agoda.com) with a 45% last minute discount.

I'm looking at a longer trip next year and Cheap Flights - Compare Airline Tickets with Skyscanner.com (http://www.skyscanner.com) shows me the options, perhaps a connecting flight rather than a direct one is worth a GBP300 saving, pay GBP50 more and a far better airline is available Airline Reviews | Airport Reviews | Seat Reviews | Airline Ranking (http://www.airlinequality.com) gives me a idea of who to avoid btw Thomas Cook are pretty ordinary Thomas Cook Airlines Customer Reviews | SKYTRAX (http://www.airlinequality.com/Forum/thoscook.htm)

Travel agents are going the same way as film cameras, CD shops and book shops. Anyone here remember Butlins ?;)

[Avitor]

MP for Peterborough brought up the subject today at PMQ's Cameron informed him the matter is being looked at as T. Cook is a long standing, well respected tour operator.

[johnnychips]

Anyone here remember Butlins ?


As far as I know, Butlins is doing OK, precisely because they have adjusted their product to changing market conditions, in a way that many contibutors on here think that Thomas Cook et al have not.

Anyone for an Abba tribute band weekend in Skeggy in December? :ok: It might not be to your taste, but events like this are sold out. And as long as that damned flight tax and unfriendly exchange rates continue, they may be so for a long time to come!

[Tinribs]

I am at a loss here so please could one of you finance people explain how a company that is 900m in debt with few visible assetts and a record of loss ever hope to pay back the debt or service the interest payments.

Surely the best that can be hoped for is to sell what assetts are movable, cut the losses and shut down the operation in a controlled manner

[TallestPoppy]

A quick look at the UK CAA's G-info website appears to show that Thomas Cook owns 36 aircraft.

They would appear to own 36 aircraft, including three B767's, five A-330's, five A320's, four A321's, and seventeen B757's.

I couldnt find anything on their B737's.

[xtypeman]

However I dont think you can blame the media for all the hype. The acting CEO was even saying yesterday you are covered by ATOL and suggest you take out travel insurance if flight only. Dose not give confidence either.

[Topspotter]

Thanks to the wave of very negative reporting in the press its clear what going to happen all those people who were thinking of booking with TCX will now be looking at TUI Cosmos ETC instead:ugh:

[leisurelad]

Can someone answer this.
Anyone remember when MyTravel found a 50M black hole in their accounts and ended up being 900 odd million in debt, it was about 8/9yrs ago around this time of year too when the company was saved by the banks.
What the hell has happened to be back in a similar position again. What i can never understand is that after being in business for so many years, wheres the money !!!
I for one hope cook does pull through this but with the current state of the banks, will they chuck more money at a company that doesn't appear to have got out of its debts all those years ago or will they force cook to break up the business and sell it off.

Maybe someone can explain in more detail.

[World of Tweed]

Guys the discussion on the woes of TCX are all very interesting and of course my thoughts are with the guys an girls that work for the second pillar of the leisure travel industry.

In my opinion I think you are assuming alot and over estimating the appetite of the general UK or European public to 'self-package' on their primary holiday. For Weekends/short breaks that's fine but for the two weeks in the summer most still go for the package - it IS generally better value.

Those of you who have discovered that 5 star hotel in Bangkok for $57 per night or fancy your 2 weeks in a secluded greek villa that you get off a mate for nothing - I have to say - are in the minority when you look at the stats. In fact that greek villa on samos that you get for tuppence? How would get there if not with the either TCX or TOM?

Take the Sharm route for example: a great case study in the neich that the package tour still holds and does extremely well.

Until 2005 only big charters operated on the route feeding tourists to the packaged(and odd diver on a seat only) to the resorts in Sharm. GB Airways started offering the upmarket BA service once a week. Continued today as Easyjet it caters for the seat only clientel and self packagers - one aircraft with a very low utilisation rate and infact operating contrary to the low cost model by flying for longer than 3hrs.

BA started a 777 from LGW in 2009 twice a week with club world etc... it fell flat on its face. Why? Because it didn't have the onward sales of the hotels and there was simply not enough traffic density the support the aircraft on its cost basis.

Today Thomson operate about 50 services a week to Sharm el sheikh from around 13 UK airports. For Thomson alone it represents a huge market with almost daily flights to MAN and LGW. Most are packaged but with a service density like that it can offer more timings and holiday durations than any scheduled/low-co can. Its also building premium exclusive resorts for its customers differentiating itself from the mass market (which it still embraces but just not entirely).

Not to mention protection for uncertainties just as what we are seeing now with TCX. Have you forgotten Excel? The public outcry from individuals who had given self-packaging at go and got seriously let down.

Package holidays are perceived to be old fashioned, uncool, trashy and little bit naff. In some respects they are but they still represent extremely good value for the 2.4 Children families that make up the bulk of the UK customer base. I'm not saying they'll do for all as it once was but not everyone is an adventurer and most people today are savvy enough to look on the net do the math and yet still end up with a package. And the numbers seem to stack up to support that - £13bn revenue and over £400million profit in 2010 for TUI.

So whilst TCX is in trouble - in my opinion because of mis-management - The package holiday isn't dead - it's just changing shape and unfortunately for TCX they haven't changed fast enough.

[cwatters]

I'm sure TC knew what effect this announcement would have on the day to day income of the business - so you can bet they have been working like crazy behind the scenes for months to sort out funding before they were forced to make this statement.

[JSCL]

I tend to self package on other sites, then give TCX a call and they at usually able to do the same flights, hotels etc and on the phone have often price matched and it included protection. I've done that a number of times recently, even though I never flew a TCX plane on them. I've flown TCX twice in the past to Catania, wonderful experience and great people.

But I think I'm not the only one preferring the protection these days. One three things gained in a hurry - babies, black eyes and ruined holidays.

[TCX69]

Eventually merging with JMC to form TCX

Airtours never merged with JMC to form Thomas Cook. Thomas Cook was already established when MyTravel merged into them several years after JMC.

A quick look at the UK CAA's G-info website appears to show that Thomas Cook owns 36 aircraft.

They would appear to own 36 aircraft, including three B767's, five A-330's, five A320's, four A321's, and seventeen B757's.

I couldnt find anything on their B737's.

Thomas Cook don't operate B737's & only currently have 4 A330's, soon to be 3.
TCX don't own all of them A|C, the majority are leased.

[lederhosen]

The package holiday may not be dead, but it does not appear to be a very attractive business. Thomas Cook is a company on the ropes. I would be very surprised if the banks close them down as that would reduce the residual value of the business even more.

The accountants appear to have said that they could not sign off that the company was a going concern in its present form. Expect an orderly disposal of what can be sold. Condor would look like a prime candidate. But what is it worth without the german tour operating business feeding it?

[travel57]

Dear Rumaaair999
When did they pay 15 and 20% commission, take the rose tinted glasses off and live in the real world.
Clearly you do not have to deal with some of the idiotic replies we have to endure time and time again from staff who either can not be bothered to reply correctly to a situation or plainly cant read the complaint.
At the end of the day some even 18 months down the line we still await a correct reply to complaints, with clients who have paid good money for a service they do not receive, then have the audasity to make a complaint to TC, who, in some way have they not in part paid for staffs wages by booking and paying for a holiday with them.
We have evetion where whilst we are still fighting for a reply,TC have advised ABTA its all sorted, what planed are these people on.
Yes I do have some sympathy for the few staff who know and do the job professionally, unfortuatly from experience they are the minority rather than the norm. We are forever getting told its our fauld that they have not procided the holiday as booked and paid for. How, all we have done is provide them with customers. like the retail trade have done for years, then TC Managemnet see fit to cut commissions yet again but expect us to do more admin and work for less. whilst their own staff it appears get away with no more than murder.
Clearly you either work for them or do not have to deal with the idiotic replies and stupit situations we do, caused by obviously staff who care not a penny

[Topspotter]

Bit of topic but IMO yeterdays newspaper headlines were shameful, one paper in particular was sounding like the company had already failed, do they not realise the very serious effect this will now have on next years bookings ? those headlines could very well have been the final nail for the company and the thousands of jobs that depend on it ..disgusting.

[deepknight]

Travel57

You say that "most" pax with TCX suffer rudeness from the crew who, you suggest, couldn't give a flying f***. That's several million people you're talking about. Exactly what do you base this assertion on? Is it the questionaires that invariably praise the cabin crew for going the extra mile to sort out the screw-ups that seem part of every charter airline's operations? Is it the smiles and praise I witness almost everytime I watch the passengers disembark? Yes we have cock-ups. But for almost every one of them, its the crews who turn the disaster around. That's what cabin crew do.

[pee]

those headlines could very well have been the final nail for the company and the thousands of jobs that depend on it ..disgusting.
That's why you never should allow your company to drift beyond the critical point (economically). After it happens, you can only blame yourself.

[lplsprog]

Just heard insurers for Global travel group have withdrawn cover from Thomas Cook Airlines and are removed from the ATOL permitted list with immediate effect.:uhoh:

[leisurelad]

You can view the same article on the travel trade press websites

Not the most encouraging and i believe that Ernst and Young have been brought in by the banks to help seek some kind of restructure !!

[ncleflights]

well if anyone was going to have an advert in bad taste it could only be Ryanair!!

It must be a worrying time for all the staff and I wish them well however the media hype must be driving potential customers to the competition in droves and that only makes a bad situation worse. I do fear for the future business.

Whilst the banks came to the rescue of Airtours when the black hole in their finances was discovered a decade ago the situation is completely different now we are in a credit squeeze and doubt those same banks would take the risk now.

I have also heard the 'too big to fail' argument. Well although not exactly the same but very similar, two words spring to mind PAN AM, airline of course, but also owned hotels, tour companies, travel agents. This was also a large travel group with a long history also.

[Cleared For A Coffee]

All sounds very worrying. Have a holiday booked for March with TCX, ATOL protected and all but I wouldn't mind actually getting to go!

I suppose we'll have to wait and see what happens in the next few weeks/months...

As some have already mentioned, TCX got themselves into this mess, but the media certainly don't help in times like these.

[deepknight]

Lederhosen: you suggested the accountants wouldn't sign off the results. Not true. The company itself delayed the publication because the costs of the required added headroom could impact on the numbers. The company confirmed its profits for the year would be in line with expectations: around 320mil gross. All stated by TC. And lets be clear: the company has not asked for extra cash because its struggling to stay afloat, its to give it headroom on the overdraft. Hardly surprising given the present economic conditions. How much did BMI lose this year? How much loss has Comet announced today? Remember not so long ago when BA was worth less than Ryanair because of its share price?
But hey, its a package holiday firm, and if there's one thing the media loves more than a shagging footballer, its a story about 'holiday horrors'.

[RoyHudd]

Correct. The rotten-to-the-core UK press will try to demolish TCX, forgetting the millions of £ of advertising placed on their pages by the same company. Let's hope the Daily Mail, Express, and Sun all fold soon. Pity we cannot help them with some nasty publicity. That is sadly their domain. As it is with the BBC.

[travel57]

Thomas cook have for a long time been a nightmare to deal with, as a retail agent we do at times have to deal with them. We receive more complaints from customers about standards, thats after attempting to get correct full documentation, then just to rub faces in it some more the customer service staff are all but useless, I am sure most can not even read a letter corrrectly.
Then if they travel with the airline most endure rudeness from aircrew, thats if they can be bothered in the first place.
It would do the likes of Thomas Cook to look back at when they needed the independent agents as large retail groups did not exist as they do today, and remember without us, they would not be who they are today, the same goes to others who feel they are big enough to turn the the back. I for one feel Cooks staff have made the bed by rudeness and being unhelpful, now its time to pay the bill.
Tipical od the level of TC staff, one of my staff attended a via canada training day some years ago, where the manager of a TC office not only expressed surprised at finding Niagra was in Canada, but then asked the representative from VIA RAIL why they only operate in Canada.

[rumair999]

Travel57 - how can you not feel for the staff? with this media bashing - how do you think the staff feel with silly comments.
I'm sure as a travel agent you took the 15/20% commission on offer years ago?
Once again let's stop the Thomas Cook bashing and show the support needed.
By the way share price up today :ok:

[Towerman]

With Ernst and Young appointed as advsier it is a short step to Administration.

[JSCL]

Towerman, don't be stupid. It's clear passengers are googling and finding themselves reading threads like this on here, so let's not stir more crap and be factful.

If I had £800m credited to TCX and I have two options:
1) Don't allow any more and reclaim once the administrator is in.
2) Add an additional £100m credit line and see the ongoing payback

Less risk in #2 right now. Sure, it'll reach a point where enough is enough. But I hear Suisse financing discussions are remaining positive.

[lederhosen]

Interesting first post deepknight, you seem closer to all this than I am and I found your explanation interesting. So the company decided to pull the final results presentation at the last moment because the cost of future borrowing will impact on last year's results? I need to get my head round that one. The accountants played no role in all of this. TC just decided unilaterally that they would be comfortable with a bit more headroom on their overdraft. There is no problem everything is fine. It is not struggling to keep afloat it just needs to borrow more money. I agree with the last poster about the refinancing by the way.

[JSCL]

Deepknight is on the right lines, for sure. If this had of happened say, 5 months ago, it would be just another business decision as part of the results due at the moment. But the issue is timing. Failure to provide full results and discussion of more finance, sends out "stupid" signals. But the mention of "we need a further £100m" is not a bad thing. Sure it'll affect results ongoing, new interest payments on the accounts and newly found expenses. But it is nothing more than a buffer. TCX is struggling in some sides of the business, but the actual flying of the planes (basics) is profitable for them. With the bad signs in the industry and various "lower than expectations" announcements from other airlines, TCX is taking the right move to protect itself and creditors are more than understanding of that. Easier to finance a profitable company fromthe future, than a losing company for the past, present and future.

[750XL]

Advert in todays paper... Unbelievable

http://i43.tinypic.com/f1mjk.jpg

[JSCL]

Il bet Ryanairs credit reserve is made up of Creditors/financing that exceeds TCX's, I'd guess anyway.

[A4]

TCX went to the banks six weeks ago to "restructure their financing arrangements" i.e. extend credit facilities and covenants. Now they're back asking for more - doesn't exactly inspire confidence in the management that they could get it sooooo wrong with results imminent. Perhaps when they did renegotiate a few weeks back, they got as much as the banks were prepared to give (at the time).

Another factor here is the name. TC is huge well known brand. When Airtours (as the holiday group was known) changed its name to MyTravel it, purely by chance, probably saved the company. The reason was that there were still HUGE numbers of the public who had no idea that MyTravel was in fact Aitrtours. The public were still going into "GoingPlaces" travel agencies and booking and I even heard of anecdotal stories of customers saying "I'm not going to book with that MyTravel outfit -they're about to go bust!"

Unfortunately this is a luxury that TC don't have this time - everyone's heard of them.

Certain elements of the media seem to revel in this. I remember when MYT were in the $hit a certain Daily tabloid appeared to be going out of its way to run as many damaging stories as it could - it was almost like it was personal :confused:

Been there, done it and my thoughts and best wishes are with all the staff who day in day out do their job and now have that knotted feeling in their gut. My thoughts are NOT with the incompetents who have (again!) driven a great company to the brink but will (again!) no doubt leave with pockets bulging with "compensation" for a job well done :yuk::yuk::yuk:

Good luck Kestral!

A4

[cldrvr]

Why is everybody here once again blaming the media? TCG has been paying over 14% on their bonds for a long time, their creditline has been a multiple of their market capitalisation for quite a while, they themselves announced a delay of their annual reports as they were trying to increase that credit line by another 100Mn, only having done so by 200 Mn a little over a month ago.

The media didn't "cause" the problems TGC find themselves in, they have been an overleveraged, debt ridden company for quite some time. I am surprised the media took this long to report on it.

There comes a point in a companies life when the banks are saying, enough is enough

[deepknight]

I'm not suggesting everything is rosey at TC. Far from it. But questions about how could the management get it so wrong, needing another 100m only a month after the last 100m are not suported by the facts. When the company announced the earlier deal, it also told the city it would update the banks on a regular basis incase further deterioration in trading occurred. That's exactly what has happened. The present CEO made that clear in his interview with Robert Peston.
And while the cost of the borrowing may look high, remember TC brings in almost 9 billion pounds in sales. (from it's company report.) Yes, the present coverage will do little to encourage bookings, but the downturn (Egyptian troubles, floods in Thailand putting off the French and the Russians...) will affect TUI too.

[TURIN]

For all those who bought at 10p.

As of 10:00hrs 25Nov11

You just doubled your money, now trading at over 20p. :ok:



Why this is showing as posted inthe early hours I do not know.

[FANS]

As matters stand, TCX probably can't pay its December wage bill (amongst many other creditors), and hence is in a questionable position.

Will it survive in one shape or another? Yes, it's still got many good parts to the company.

Would anyone book a holiday with them now? No and hence its cash position will be getting much worse on a daily basis.

The banks won't pull the plug due to the political environment but it will be subject to some significant restructuring.

[cldrvr]

Il bet Ryanairs credit reserve is made up of Creditors/financing that exceeds TCX's, I'd guess anyway.

No comparison.

I know it is thread drift but they are sitting on a cash pile of 3.5Bn, have 8.5Bn in assets and only 3.6Bn in debt as of the last reporting cycle.

MOL is a joker and I for one don't like his antics and constant attention seeking, but he does run a tidy ship and Ryanair will be around for a long time yet.

[Towerman]

Dont think I am stupid JCSL. Let's look at the facts:

Thomas Cook share price falls by 75%

Thomas Cook relies on Dec to Feb early booking season when it takes deposits. As a family - would you want to risk your holiday been affected by booking 7 months in advance? A shift to TUI holidays is inevitable.
Jobs in the current climate are uncertain - there will be a general industry slowdown that will affect all tour operators.
There will be a growing move to booking low cost flights at the last minute and do it yourself car hire and hotel bookings - that way you are not tieing up package holiday payment 12 weeks before travel as required by Thomas Cook TUI and others.
Thomas Cook traditional high yield business markets in Egypt, Thailand and North AFrica have been badly affected.
Thomas Cook carries higher overheads than TUI with its branch network and bureaux in many countries. Closing 200+ shops will affect morale across the network in an industry where staff salaries are low and where 7 day shifts and short staffed branches are a common occurrence.

I am not certainly not wishing that TC goes into Administration, but it would appear likely unless the 17 banks that make up the £1billion pound facility are willing to be exposed. Such further lending would not only take into account market conditions, credit card receivables, forecast results and profits but also the underlying asset value of the non leased aircraft and the liabilities associated with managing, operating and returing their ageing leased aircraft fleet. Certainly my view is shared by some folk close to the core.

A restructuring would allow a leaner more streamlined Thomas Cook to emerge.

[crewmeal]

I'm not surprised by Ryanair's tactics. They prey on businesses that are in trouble and exploit it by their bad taste in jokes. What do they get out of it? I don't know, but it's shameful.

[Capetonian]

What a cheap shot from a 'cheap' airline.

That advert from Ryanair deserves the widest possible publicity. It exposes their despicable attitude and lack of ethics and is another reason to boycott them. It's in the worst possible taste and I would like to think that even some of their loyal customers and supporters would be disgusted by such a tactic and decide to boycott them. But as MoL says the type of people who travel with him only care about (what seems to be) cheap.

Now if Ryanair were to go bust - sadly that would make a lot of people redundant - but it would wipe the smirk off O'Leary's face and that would be worth seeing.

[cwatters]

Correct. The rotten-to-the-core UK press will try to demolish TCX, forgetting the millions of £ of advertising placed on their pages by the same company. Let's hope the Daily Mail, Express, and Sun all fold soon. Pity we cannot help them with some nasty publicity. That is sadly their domain. As it is with the BBC.

Check out this graph..

THOMAS COOK GROUP PLC 7.75% GTD NTS 22/06/17 (BR) £ Share Price - Shares - London Stock Exchange (http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary.html?fourWayKey=XS0504306001ZZGBPCWTR)

It suggests the potential problem at TC has been know since at least end June. The media could have stuck the knife in before TC made their press release.

[HH6702]

hi

Been reading this over last few days.
With the high cost of fual and maintence costs do you think that Thomas cook may close all the groups airline down and bring in the likes of Ryanair/Easyjet/BMIBaby to do the flying programme?

Would this save the group money long term??

Over winter the group has to find flying for the 50+ aircraft.
some go to canada others may do 1 flight per day.

If the group looses money more in the winter time this makes sence.

sorry i know this will upset some cabin crew but thomas cook needs to act now and getting more money from banks isnt the anwser all it does is delay getting rid of the debt and increasing what they owe....

[Too Low Terrain]

The low market capitalization of TCX makes it very difficult to raise fresh money. Remember, an investor will ask for securities and assets to cover his financial risk apart from a high interest rate. It would not surprise me if major financial partners/banks already have their hands on the profitable sisters in Scandinavia and Germany.

TCX´s last 2010 bonds were issued with beween 6% and 7.5% rates (google), so if you assume this is the average rate for the £1bn debt they apparently have, we speak of interest payable of £60m minimum per year.

Air Berlin in Germany, in a similar situation, recently issued a €100m bond with a coupon of 11.5% (!) in dire need of fresh capital.

The interest rates payable for TCX to raise new capital will increase.
If they really had such big assets as owned planes etc, there would be no reason for the shareprice to plummet to a market capitalization of just £96m.
This is the price of a single A330 and they operate some 40 or so aircraft of which for sure they own a few...

Guess some people know a bit more already...

[IainB]

First one was a holiday a couple of years ago where we wanted a certain hotel in a certain location. Could only be booked through TC, so got our local TOM shop to do it for us - and got a good price match on the tinternet price. All went swimmingly until the pick-up from hotel for our journey home. Despite being the nearest hotel and resort to the airport, we were picked up a couple of hours before departure time. Massive queues at check-in and passport control which meant the flight was called as the bloke was glaring at my picture on the passport, leading to a bit of a sprint once we cleared the desk. I e-mailed TC to suggest that a reschedule on the bus times might be a good idea and got a snotty reply stating that because it was booked through TOM, it was down to them to sort out and not TC. OK, technically, my contract was with TOM, but TC were the service provider and realistically couldn't give two about the standard of service provided. I asked at our local TOM shop about taking it further and was advised that it wasn't worth it as Head Office would take great pains to ignore me.

The palaver I went through in buying some vouchers for a friends wedding present at the Thomas Cook shop had to be seen to be believed. Photo ID required and all sorts, could only pay in cash not card, plus they wanted the address of the person who was going to receive the vouchers. They couldn't find the address either on the search system and claimed it didn't exist, which was strange as I'd been there numerous times.

Final one is the weird exchange rate fiasco where you only get the advertised rate if you have booked a holiday with them and cash a certain amount. Standard rate is substantially less than the advertised one, I can tell you.

Is it any wonder the company is going Tango Uniform?

[cldrvr]

Guess some people know a bit more already... Their biggest shareholder cuts its stake in half 2 days ago, from almost 9% to less then 5, at a significant loss to them, and guess what, they are one of the 17 banks providing their credit line. They have been steadily reducing their stake for the last 2 months

Thomas Cook Group PLC - Holding(s) in Company (http://www.thomascookgroup.com/news-item?item=844405602790512)
Thomas Cook Group PLC - Holding(s) in Company (http://www.thomascookgroup.com/news-item?item=808263452984393)

IF a company renegotiates their creditline upwards by 25% and then comes back a few weeks later for another 100Mn, that does not look good.

Furthermore TCG themselves abandoned a 400Mn rights issue this week, not surprising when your company is barely worth 100Mn

Manny stepped down as CEO only 2 months ago after the third consecutive profit warning in a year.

I am fully aware that there are some 30,000 employees involved in this saga, but let's not jump on the Thomas Cook bandwagon and go blaming the press here, they brought it upon themselves.

Let's see their financial report when it finally gets released and see how their forward bookings are fairing, a drop of 20-25% year on year would not surprise me, if the appointment of administrators does not beat the release of the report first.

The banks have already appointed a debt advisor:

Thomas Cook's banks appoint adviser: sources | Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/23/us-thomascook-idUSTRE7AL1OD20111123)

But heh, let's blame the media for this mess, I am surprised how well behaved the media has been, they showed up a bit late to the party. TCG's problems didn't start this week when the media finally reported it, there has been months worth of trouble leading up to it.

The largest shareholders are bailing out, their debt has been valued down to 57%, we have seen profit warnings all year, why should the media not warn potential customers of the trouble the company is in.

[TURIN]

But heh, let's blame the media for this mess,

Yes, of course TCG got in to this themselves but it doesn't help their position when the general public read crass adverts and hyped up headlines proclaiming the company is a dead duck.

If this story stayed within the confines of the business pages most of us would be none the wiser and would have continued to book our holidays based on face values of the product. As it is now even the most die hard TC supporters amongst are going to find it difficult to put hand in pocket and part with hard cash after reading some of the guff in the press. Result is that instead of the banks attempting to support the company knowing well that bookings are returning they now know everyone is running scared, completely bonkers!
I'm not saying the public should be kept in the dark but the press has a duty to give accurate factual information without hyperboly (sp?).

Ryanair? :mad::yuk:

[PPRuNe Pop]

We know about the posting times and WE can do nothing about it. The owners are also aware. As to when it will be fixed - your guess is as good as mine.

Just keep posting time is only time which only goes one way.

PPP

[PPRuNe Pop]

I posted a comment that should have been been as 100 but instead dropped back to 89. See what I mean. The owners have not addressed this problem - yet.

God knows where this post will end up!


PPP

[cldrvr]

Yes, of course TCG got in to this themselves but it doesn't help their position when the general public read crass adverts and hyped up headlines proclaiming the company is a dead duck. The company is a dead duck by their own admission, they ran out of cash and are worth peanuts.

this story stayed within the confines of the business pages most of us would be none the wiser and would have continued to book our holidays based on face values of the productTCG as it stands is not going to survive in its current form, so you want the media to keep quiet so that the uninformed punter can continue booking a holiday that he/she would never get to enjoy.

TCG maybe ATOL protected and the punter will get his money back, however he will not be able to book another holiday at that time.

But you prefer to keep the trouble the company is in a secret from the masses so they can use the booking fees to get through the winter when the banks are unwilling to keep them afloat?

Result is that instead of the banks attempting to support the company knowing well that bookings are returningThe banks tried that a few weeks ago when they negotiated an increase to TCG's creditline to get them through the winter, here we are only a few weeks later and TCG once more is out of cash, so you want 17 banks to throw good money after bad? Wouldn't you prefer the banks to use that money instead on viable and profitable companies?

We don't know that bookings are returning, TCG delayed their financial report. But would they really need another 100Mn so soon if they were?

the press has a duty to give accurate factual information without hyperbolyThe press are only reporting what TCG themselves released to the public, not based on rumours, just on facts. TCG is out of money, the banks won't lend, the shareholders are bailing out, their existing debt facevalue is being written down.

But your solution is to keep quiet, take as much money as you can from unsuspecting punters and hope the company is going to survive?

Ryanair? http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/censored.gifhttp://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/pukey.gifRyanair's ad may be bad taste, but again, they are not wrong and Ryanair only has an obligation to extract as much value as they can for their own shareholders, not participate in what you want, a massban on reporting the trouble TCG is in.

The genie is out of the bottle, TCG themselves let it out, you can of course wish it back in, but that is not going to happen.

[Narrow Runway]

Hang on a moment everyone.

I don't recall anyone saying that TCG had run out of money, or that all the extra £100mn facility that was negotiated about 5 weeks ago has been spent.

What TCG said is that they have had a significant downturn in trading in recent times and that they are going to their lenders in order to renegotiate loans and terms - perhaps seeking further funding.

If they had "run out of cash", then that would make them technically insolvent I believe. It is an offence for Directors to knowingly trade whilst insolvent.

I don't think it looks brilliant, but I don't think it is quite over yet.

Despite a bounce from 10p to about 18p, I'd not be a buyer of the shares until further details are divulged in the accounts announcement.

I would however book a holiday with them even now, because you'll get your money back if it all goes belly up.

[cldrvr]

Hang on a moment everyone.

I don't recall anyone saying that TCG had run out of moneyHere you go:

Thomas Cook Group plc announces that as a result of deterioration of trading in some areas of the business in the current quarter, and of its cash and liquidity position since its year end, the Company is in discussions with its principal lending banks with regard to its facilities during the seasonal low period of cash in the business.Thomas Cook Group PLC - Update (http://www.thomascookgroup.com/news-item?item=844405602786449)

Are they out of cash today? Probably not, as you say it would be illegal to continue trading when insolvent.

Do they have enough cash to get through Christmas? No, they most likely don't or else they would not have released the above statement.

I would however book a holiday with them even now, because you'll get your money back if it all goes belly up. Granted you would get your money back, eventually, you would however not get to enjoy your holiday and would be hard pressed to find an alternative.

I don't think it looks brilliant, but I don't think it is quite over yet.I agree, something will arise out of this mess. The banks will do their best to get at least part of their original investment back, hence the appointment of a debt advisor today.

[paully]

Things are on the up, the banks will bail them out, albeit with strings attached ,the Government has arm twisted the banks who seem to have realised they have more to lose by flushing TC away, as a result their share price has started to rise, albeit from a low base. Must be good news for their employees.

Re the media, sorry they are the ones to blame. Doom and gloom from every crack and orifice of the gutter press. Just look at the world around you, the shops are busy, people are spending (and this well before the Xmas rush), there are still millions in work and will continue to be. What will happen now is that spending will be lower and sustainable, pretty much what it should have been instead of the `years of excess`..Now if they could be forced to shut up about it and the BBC dismantled (:D:D) we would sort ourselves out over the next few years in a steadier way.

Instead we will still have stories about declining sales of Gucci handbags and how we are in a slump due to not having 3 jollies a year etc etc ...To:mad:rs

Best of luck to all those at Tommy Cook I hope you have a better Christmas :ok:

[FANS]

MODS - what is going on with this thread? Posting times are all wrong.

This is a key thread at the moment.

[El Grifo]

You tell the Feckers Jock :ugh: They just love the Gloom and Doom scenarios

Thomas Cook agrees £200m loan deal with banks - www.travelweekly.co.uk (http://www.travelweekly.co.uk/Articles/2011/11/25/38896/thomas-cook-agrees-200m-loan-deal-with-banks.html)

This is crap ! I posted this at 22.58 and it appears now. Bad, bad and double bad :ugh:

[El Grifo]

sdjnf;ukdsnv;jsn;kj\cnv;\kn;uj\is

22.30 friday night. What is going on ?????

[PPRuNe Pop]

I am closing the thread until early a.m. tomorrow to see if the problems with time lapses gets cleared or is cleared. At the moment people who post may see their posts with up to 6 hours before the time they actually posted.

PPP

See you in the morning.

[rumair999]

Maybe the thread should be closed down, stop the papers taking qoutes from all the experts talking rubbish on here.

I repeat this is the last thing the UK and Europe needs at the moment,

They are not going anywhere and people should you start supporting not knifing :=

[FANS]

These things can be self fulfilling, but who would book anything with TCX now?

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

This discussion is not a matter of choosing whether to "support" or "knife" TCG. Put emotion aside; we are talking about the financial viability of a troubled business here. The issue is that a publicly listed company has issued a news release to the London Stock Exchange which indicates a very grave financial situation. And it is the latest in a series of such news releases from this company. I'm sure most of us reading this thread would like to see TCG survive and prosper, but it is not reprehensible to report and appraise the prospects for the company going forward in an honest manner. The media's role is that of messenger in this situation ("don't shoot etc.") and it is fulfilling its duty to keep its readers / viewers informed. If blame is to be apportioned, then it lies with some who made management-level decisions at TCG, and not with any newspaper editor.

Personally, I wish all staff at TCG well. I sincerely hope that the bulk of the group can be sold on to a financially strong player in the travel industry if it cannot be saved as a standalone operation. Thomas Cook is an iconic brand, and I hope to see it around still ten years from now ... albeit (most likely) under new ownership.

[paully]

``The media's role is that of messenger in this situation ("don't shoot etc.") and it is fulfilling its duty to keep its readers / viewers informed. ``

You obviously havent read the Daily Mail recently then :}

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

OK. Guilty as charged, Paully! The Daily Fail has passed me by ...

[PPRuNe Pop]

All logic has left PPRuNe - and there is little we can do.

My posts above informing you of the difficulties are 6 hours out - which is the time in LA. Other parts of PPRuNe are ocassionaly OK.

EDIT: This post is now correct in time and position. For how long is in the laps of those charged with maintaining the site.

PPP

[Ernest Lanc's]

Personally, I wish all staff at TCG well. I sincerely hope that the bulk of the group can be sold on to a financially strong player in the travel industry if it cannot be saved as a standalone operation. Thomas Cook is an iconic brand, and I hope to see it around still ten years from now ... albeit (most likely) under new ownership.

Well put shed!!
Truth is the fate of TCG is in the lap of the gods - Sorry bankers.

Fact is that David Cameron seems very keen on TCG not to go under.

IF TCG does go under, then the banks get nothing.

If TCG is restructured - The banks will get some, if not all of their Wonga back..

I reckon that TC will survive is some form, I also reckon peoples holidays already booked are safe..reason I say that is TCG is still trading, and could not take any new bookings is they where (bankrupt).
The press is right to report the facts - it's then up to Joe Public to make up their own minds whether to book Thomas Cook or not. So long as the facts are published in a fair and none sensational manner.

My guess is some won't, but most will as their money is protected.

I wish Thomas Cook well and hope they do survive.

[TSR2]

So long as the facts are published in a fair and none sensational manner.

And unfortunately, therein lies the problem.

[763 jock]

Some good news for all Kestrels:

25 November 2011
Thomas Cook Group Plc
Amendment to existing bank facilities and new £200m bank facility signed
Thomas Cook Group is pleased to announce that we have reached agreement with our banking group to provide the Group with a new facility that significantly improves the robustness of the Group’s financial position.
Our banks, led by Barclays, HSBC, RBS and UniCredit, have agreed to provide a new £200m facility available until 30 April 2013, which replaces the £100m short-term facility announced on 21 October 2011. In addition, they have agreed a further relaxation of the financial covenants under the existing facilities. This provides the Group with much increased headroom to deal with unexpected events and the effects of an uncertain economic environment.
As previously announced, the Board is taking steps to reduce the Group’s debt and reach a more appropriate capital structure over time. The Group will also undertake a strategic review.
The Group will announce its preliminary results for the twelve months ended 30 September 2011 during the week commencing 12 December 2011.
Sam Weihagen, Group Chief Executive, Thomas Cook Group plc said:
“I am absolutely delighted that we have reached agreement and I would like to thank the banks for acting so swiftly. Over the last few days, we have been overwhelmed by the messages of support from our holidaymakers, suppliers and partners and I would like to thank them for their good wishes and our employees for their hard work and dedication. For over 170 years Thomas Cook has provided customers across the world with fantastic travel experiences. Today they can look forward confidently to holidays with us for many years to come.”

[lederhosen]

Congratulations are due to TC and the banks in sorting out the financing at least in the short term. It remains to be seen whether the iceberg has just scuffed the paintwork.

I am reminded of the old saying 'owe the bank ten pounds and you are a criminal, owe them ten thousand and you are one of their best customers!'...except these days you have to add a few zeros to the total.

[PPRuNe Pop]

OK. Let us see how the site is working now.

PPP

[42psi]

Airtours never merged with JMC to form Thomas Cook. Thomas Cook was already established when MyTravel merged into them several years after JMC.

You are indeed correct ....

with the slight clarification that JMC was already actually Thomas Cook.

They decided to use the name JMC and the bright colours as their market research told them that the name Thomas Cook was seen as "old & staid" and not attractive to the younger generations they were trying to attract.


The name JMC stood for John Mason Cook

..........


I see that the new line of credit has been approved, now begins the just as hard task of overcoming the recent publicity to try and get sales in over the next few months

[El Grifo]

Sadly, hard to argue waco :(

[waco]

Are TCG going to go out of business in the next couple of months.....

No

Can TCG trade their way out of the current situation with Europe economically on its Knees and the situation set to get much, much worse shortly.

No

I can only see one of three possible outcomes in the next year.

AA/Massive (and I mean massive) reduction in capacity and quickly.

BB/ Take over by TUI (the charter market IS OVER).

CC/ Tut, tut Tootsie.....


Me? I,m just trying to get my pension money out. I just pray they have not spent it all in their pension "reinvestment" process.............

[ScottyDawg]

It's great news to hear that there has been a bit of common sense in the banking fraternity... just for once

My best wishes to all at Tommy Cook

As an ex-Airtours...(aka MyTravel)... driver..
I wish Dave Parsons.. and Jack Brown had a bit to play in future strategy

Best Flt Op's gaffers in the business... and sorely missed

Cheers
Scotty D

[Pin Head]

when was the latest announcement released? After close of play at the stock exchange???

[PPRuNe Pop]

The details are in post #107 and further repeated twice.

[waco]

According to the business setion of todays Sunday Times.

TCX are overcrewed and their aircraft utilisation figures are noticeably poorer than TUI.

Oh and I agree about messers Parsons and Brown. I was always impressed by them both.

[Bernoulli]

I'm a pilot flying for TCX and the last few days have been awful. After the realisation about just how rotten the PLC management have been (remember, we have to pay the best 'compensation' and bonuses to get the very best people.....) what has been particularly sickening are the advertising campaigns being run by TUI and Ryanair.

The Ryanair stuff is disingenuous but no real surprise. They are not a nice company and their corporate culture is despicable.

It is the material put out by TUI that really shocks. To claim that 'You're in safe hands' implying that with TCX you're not, simply does not bear examination. Are the advertising people unaware of Girona? Of Bournemouth? Of Paphos? I sincerely hope this 'angle' does not come back to haunt them one day. Even if one were to take the view that the advert refers to the security of the individuals booked holiday it doesn't hold water; that's what ATOL protection is all about.

I'd like some TUI pilots to declare themselves on this thread and tell me what they think and feel about the advertising campaign being run by their Company. If the tables were turned I'd be ashamed if we did something similar.

[CabinCrewe]

I think youre reading too much into it. These adverts are aimed at the financial security/safety. Noone is suggesting the mechanical flying safety of TCX is compromised, and it would need to be a very gullable public to fall for it so I wouldnt lose any sleep over that particular issue.

[nigel osborne]

Read the TUI advert and yes below the belt..however sure Thomas Cook would have been tempted to do the same thing in a similar situation.:hmm:

Sadly nobody says businesses are nice..they just do anything to snatch business off their rivals,has always been that ruthless Im afraid.:sad:

Nigel

[Topspotter]

Actually i dont think TCX would have run a advert in a similiar vein, and i dont think there really was any need to , people are not stupid, they know only to well now the state of the companies finances and will sadly im sure act accordingly when booking next years holiday, very hard to see how TCX will bounce back from this avalance of negative reporting but i really hope they do .

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

Unfortunately, one of the problems here is a matter of brand recognition. There are a surprising number of people out there (amongst the general public) who get Thomson and Thomas Cook mixed up. Some actually believe they are the same company.

Only recently, some friends suggested to me that I had directed them to the wrong terminal at MAN for their "Thomson" flight. Upon checking, it turned out they had been booked with Thomas Cook. And they still didn't twig it was a different airline until I spelled it out!

In summary, I believe that Thomson is aiming to reassure clients who think it is THEY who have experienced these recent difficulties.

[Mr @ Spotty M]

I do not like what TUI & especially Ryanair have done, but you are incorrect with your statement about ATOL protection.
The so called experts l watched on TV, SC on the BBC for example got it wrong and could have done TC a lot more damage if they had told the facts correctly.
Your holiday was not safe if TC failed or any other operator for that matter, your money would have been, but not your holiday.
If you were going to book a honeymoon trip, would you have risked it, l would not have.
Now if l were booking just a holiday and it did not matter to much to me if my holiday had to change, or l would have to pay for a replacement before my refund arrived, then l would have booked with TC, no problem.
All l can say is good luck to all at TCX, in my opinion especially those in the maintenance/engineering part of the company, because l think you are going to need it l am afraid.

[Cazza_fly]

m a pilot flying for TCX and the last few days have been awful. After the realisation about just how rotten the PLC management have been (remember, we have to pay the best 'compensation' and bonuses to get the very best people.....) what has been particularly sickening are the advertising campaigns being run by TUI and Ryanair.

Thomson and Thomas Cook despite being competitor companies rely on each other to a great extend in many different ways. I very much doubt anyone at TUI would like to see anything happen to Thomas Cook.

I think youre reading too much into it. These adverts are aimed at the financial security/safety. Noone is suggesting the mechanical flying safety of TCX is compromised, and it would need to be a very gullable public to fall for it so I wouldnt lose any sleep over that particular issue.

I understand how Bernoulli must be feeling right now aswell as thousands of other staff members but I have agree with you Cabincrew. Thomas Cook is a well known, well established company known throughout the travel industry for it's standards and as an iconic British brand. However, unfortunately at these tough times each company has to look after itself and this advert is a way for TUI to reassure its customers about their holiday commitment/safety.

Believe it or not as Shed-on-a-pole has mentioned, some people dont know the different between Thomson and Thomas Cook despite them being such popular household names. When Thomas Cook show their ads on TV Thomson' bookings surge. I guess this could be said likewise for Thomas Cook when a Thomson ad is shown.

[Pin Head]

Bernolli

""""""""""""""Are the advertising people unaware of Girona? Of Bournemouth? Of Paphos? I sincerely hope this 'angle' does not come back to haunt them one day""""""""""""""

you idiot. i do hope your not a pilot. if so, resign.

Girona - massive stroke of bad luck. read the report
Bournemouth - it happens
Paphos - we are human and all make mistakes (if that is the case, wait for report_

with remarks l8ke that i do hope that TCX goes down the drain and you can go on join the job queue. while i get your pax and make even more money.

[EPRman]

Steady on Pin Head.

[Mr @ Spotty M]

The reason l mention it is because TC are going to be looking very closely to all its divisions to reduce its debt.
My guess is it is costing the TC group a lot of money to keep it going, with all its overheads.
When was the last airline in the UK to set up its own maintenance/engineering division, EZY l would say and they did not set that up to the size it is now until they had a very large fleet.
Both First Choice & TCX never set up a large maintenance/engineering division, they only used 3rd parties for hangar checks.
It is a lot cheaper to get MRO companies fighting for your business and l am sure if TOM, TCX and MON were starting up all over again, the last thing they would do is build a hangar. :{

[stormin norman]

I fear TC is another company that is suffering from the effect of APD and higher Uk taxes.

The current costs and retrictions being imposed by the present and past governments are strangling the UK airline industry.

Higher Taxes do not create jobs - spending passengers do.

[AlpineSkier]

Higher Taxes do not create jobs - spending passengers do

norman

I wouldn't think that the salaries paid to airline/airport -related personnel came anywhere close to the money spent overseas by the holiday-makers.

To that extent APD may be seen to benefit the Treasury twice.

[fireflybob]

The current costs and retrictions being imposed by the present and past governments are strangling the UK airline industry.

norman, how I agree!

Roll on the revolution!

[Mr @ Spotty M]

The reason MAEL are making money at the moment, is that they carry out the bigger checks, 4C on Boeing & 5/6 or 10/12 year checks on Airbus types.
The profit comes from the high man hours generated by these checks, TC at MAN do not carry out those checks.
They send all the bigger checks to an outside MRO in the middle east. :{

[Sussex Kestrel]

Pin Head,

Your ripost to Bernolli resembles one of a 5 year old. Whilst he/she could have paraphrased slightly better,your last paragraph is, in my opinion, completely abhorrent.

Sussex Kestrel, still Flying high.
:ok:

[Pin Head]

mocking of our fellow airmates is not the right thing to do my friend. Is that what they teach you at CRM every year???

[beamer]

Relax dear it was only a commercial............that being said, some of the responses are out of order, yes PinHead that's you ! A pal of mine at TCX tells me that the merger four years ago should have seen a great more cost saving synergy ( yuk ) than actually took place and which did take place at TUI. Market share is not the key anymore, what is important is a profitable product and if that means down-sizing and allowing loco's to carry the bucket and spade brigade then so be it.

[Sussex Kestrel]

Pin Head "mocking of our fellow airmates is not the right thing to do my friend. Is that what they teach you at CRM every year???"

Exactly, pinner, me old. So i'll refer you back to post #124. :ugh:

[FANS]

Still struggling to see who would book a holiday with TCX, unless it's much cheaper (which brings another range of problems).

There will be unfortunate radical restructuring ahead.

The concern is how badly the brand is damaged.

[Topspotter]

Its a huge problem, doubtless many people who were going to book with TCX will now be looking to book with a perceived "safer" operator thanks to the recent press feeding frenzy

[RoyHudd]

Apparently the website problem has been solved, and orders are recovering quickly. This from contacts inside the compan.

[waco]

....and the moon is made of cream cheese.

Sorry.....
Arab spring......
Waisted western economies....
Economic desert to come.....
Advent of low cost carriers....
High cost of holidays abroad.....
Advent of Expedia and similar.....
Massive unemployment......

(plus others) all equal pretty much the end of the charter market.....sorry but there it is.

Add poor aircraft utilisation and over crewing (source, this weeks Sunday Times) mean the end is in sight. question is will TUI save it with a purchase/merger?

Otherwise its a slow death.

Sorry but no other result is possible.

ps please let me get my pension money out first.

pps why are they completly restructing the pension portfolio?

ppps is there any corrolation between pension restructure and the current financial situation occuring at the same time?

[BRAKES HOT]

The reason MAEL are making money at the moment, is that they carry out the bigger checks, 4C on Boeing & 5/6 or 10/12 year checks on Airbus types.
The profit comes from the high man hours generated by these checks, TC at MAN do not carry out those checks.
They send all the bigger checks to an outside MRO in the middle east.


Not quite true there are a number of C's next year, the hanger is quite a busy place from what I hear, although most of the work is on group a/c. Otherwise correct, anything bigger is contracted out etc... (seems perfectly reasonable to me - surely it's difficult to beat the labour rates abroad for the 10 year checks, and not to mention it would jam up the floor space).

[BRAKES HOT]

Still struggling to see who would book a holiday with TCX, unless it's much cheaper (which brings another range of problems).

There will be unfortunate radical restructuring ahead.

The concern is how badly the brand is damaged.


It's hard to believe, brand damage or not and I know it's glaring obvious to ourselves (and already mentioned earlier in the thread) - a surprisingly large number of people get tui and tcx readily confused. It doesn't help that they both sell each others holidays through the agents. I don't understand why but my neighbours can't even remember the difference, it doesn't matter how many times I tell them......

[Sussex Kestrel]

Waco,

Not sure that poor aircraft utilisation and over crewing are the problem. Our route structure now is far different to that say of the JMC days of 3 rotations per day.... Not many IBZ, PMI, AGP's but more Egypt, Turkey, Canaries etc.... And the airline have probably got it spot on with crew utilisation (it hurts to say)- ask most guys and they'll probably say they've been strapped into an aircraft for most of last summer. The airline continues to be a flying shop- the figures are there for all to see. And that, in part, is thanks to the cabin crew.

As for the group- unfortunately, the problems have been staring at all of us for a couple of years now- though the directors seemingly haven't spotted them. Website, high street, product (arguably) ...... Feedback offered to the company(group) by experienced employees has fallen on deaf ears.

Brakes Hot

You're right about the hanger - c checks only. But condor booked in for next summer and other work offering around £3m apparently so seems they're getting that one right.

SK

[waco]

SK

Interesting input thanks. Info was as published by this weeks Sunday Times in comparisson with Thompson.

As an insider can you give me a heads up why they are playing around with my pension?????

[Sussex Kestrel]

Waco,

Final salary? You saw the light before the DB to DC transfer?

SK

[Mr @ Spotty M]

I did not say TCX were not carrying out "C" checks at MAN, l know they are, but not the larger "C" checks.
I think they are carrying out "1C" and maybe "2C" checks, but that is about that, not even sure if they have CAA approval for any thing bigger.

[deepknight]

Has anyone noticed a bit of a disjoint here? Whenever the media gets the aircraft type wrong in a story, or fails to understand some other detail, we scream at them for their inaccuracy. Yet we're perfectly happy to accept pronouncements on financial or operational issues when a company's having a hard time without question. If you look at the recent press covergage of TC, most of it is recycled stories based on a handful of quotes from analysts - and we know how infalable they are. I'm not saying TC doesn't face a hard road ahead, of course it does. But if you seriously study the coverage, you will see most of it is reporting someone else's view. The only people who know the true state of TC are the board and the bankers. At the moment they both seem agreed on a strategy for survival. The old group management has been ruthlessly culled, the disposals are already underway and sometime around the 12 Dec the group will announce its profits...yes PROFITS...and its plans for the future. Today the company began its fightback with full page press adverts. If you seriously think the investers and their bankers will casually allow almost £9 BILLION in world-wide sales to slip through their fingers...

[FANS]

Deepnight – as you say yourself, they’re working on survival and why forward book with a company that’s even talking of survival when there are plenty of others out there. The only reason would be price, and that leads to other problems.

TCX will survive in one shape or another, as it’s still a great brand but the group will look very different to today.

The concern is that the investors and bankers did allow the Group to get one month away from running out of cash, so I’d take little comfort from what they allow nor not! Equally, most Boards are great on big picture strategy but haven’t got a clue what’s going on operationally and I doubt they have the real-time information required to help with any short-term decision making anyway.

This is another group that has been knackered by bad acquisitions and a board disjointed from reality.

[Topspotter]

SK...are condor still on board after the disaster that befell their A/C last week in the TCX hanger ?

[beamer]

Waco

I cannot see TUI wanting a merger unless on terms so beneficial that it would be a non-starter anyway; for that matter would the prospect of a State holiday company be accepted by the powers that be ? Competition is a good thing and I expect that TC will indeed survive although in a very different form than that which exists at the moment. TUI will be a winner to some extent insomuch that they will pick up additional custom on the high street and they may well fly more TC customers on certain routes than they do already.

Old mates in TC - I have no desire to see them out of a job:ok:

[waco]

Fair point Beamer.

But how do you trade out of a 1.1 billion deficit in a market that is completly unfavourable to your buisness and will undoubtedly get much,much worse next year ??

[Sussex Kestrel]

Topspotter,

I'm guessing so- although that a/c might be extending its stay due 'unscheduled maintenance' :rolleyes:

SK

[deepknight]

WACO, you do exactly what the company says it's doing: you sell non-core assets to reduce the debt, cut costs and take action to improve the margins. Lets remember this is not a figure of 1billion in bright red on the profit and loss account at the end of each year. And this debt pile was approved by the group's banks. It consists of several factors: aquisitions, share-buybacks, leases etc... (Some of them now seen to be highly unwise, I accept, but they may well have looked like a good prospect at the time.) Yes, in the current trading environment and the collapse of the share price, that bebt now looks way too big. But the company has already announced it's taking action to reduce it. (If you don't believe it, ask the ladies and gentlemen who are presently at threat of demotion, relocation and redundancy.) And we should also remember that outside the UK the group is doing pretty well in the current climate. (And making a projected gross profit in the UK of some hundreds of millions in the worst trading conditions ever, isn't exactly a mark of a doomed company, is it?)

[cjuk28]

Cabin Crew redundancy letters doing the rounds by the sounds of it at the moment!!!!

[HH6702]

Hi
Does anybody know the plans of where the aircraft is going for next summer?
Reports in press of 6 less aircraft is this for the summer or is that 6 aircraft which every winter gets leased out?

My local airport is ncl
Last year we had 4 aircraft based but 2 aircraft were from other airlines flying on behalf of TCX.

With booking across the board down +30% and more unemployment around the uk was wondering what will be the plan around the uk

The website had shown certain flights at ncl for next summer to be operated by AEU and mint but AEU are now no more plus that information from TCX seems to have now gone.
Does that mean ncl is now 4 in house based TCX aircraft?

[Topspotter]

Heard today monarch have been approached to see if they can operate a number of TCX flights next summer from some regional airports

[deepknight]

HH6702
Six aircraft out of the fleet. But the 30% drop was UK only in the aftermath of the spectacularly ill-timed announcement. I'm told it's beginning to recover and TC will clearly want to push bookings in the peak booking period after Christmas. Other posts have pointed to the current press campaign.

[SilverSleuth]

Anyone heard the rumour that TC are selling their A330 aircraft to Virgin Australia?

[SFCC]

Interesting.
How does one sell a leased aircraft?

[SilverSleuth]

Ok smart arse, :D how about taking over their lease then? Can one take over a lease?

[The Grey Man]

Hi all just wanting to know whats the latest at , Thomas cook and how the future is looking ?

[Jonty]

No one knows at the moment. The situation has stabilised, and we are awaiting the results of a review of the UK business. This is due to be communicated along with the year end result on Wednesday. We will know more then.

[The Grey Man]

Do you know what their plan is for the future?

[goldeneye]

@The Grey Man
TC is reviewing there whole UK business just now, The financial results are due out soon, I would assume there will be information released then about the groups strategy for the UK and beyond. TCX fleet changes have already been discussed on here. As an employee of the business i feel that massive changes are coming, I believe the UK business will be totally different in the next couple of years. but that is just my opinion.

[sunshine79]

Not to buy companies left right and centre, like Manny did. There is a 5 year plan in place of how we want to go ahead but as of yet, nothing has been revealed. Rumour has it that a majority of long haul will be axed, probably only leaving SFB and CUN. There's no point in having two products when one will do (Mainstream holidays and Signature) but nothing has been said at the moment.

[Fernanjet]

with all the redundancies on offer...surely its a good time to jump rather than collapse.....

leave with a payout i say and leave them to try and get out of trouble....

the public perception is far too bad to try and save them at the moment

[paarmo]

Flew EMA ACE on a A321 in November with 60 passengers. Returned in Dec with 53 passengers. Do you think that this might have something to do with their financial difficulties? Our fares couldn't have paid for the fuel let alone anything else.

[mart901]

I flew TOM last yr BHX - ACE in mId Dec and it was about 3/4 empty outbound and was still not full returning despite being combined with EMA due to the weather. Its a dire time prior to Christmas and coupled with the fact charter airlines now have LCC competition on the routes.

[paully]

Well we are if this story is anything to go by, but in fact its just another play on words by a lazy journo...Listen to the words of Theo Paphitis (dragons Den)..some of these firms would have gone under in good times, the management is crap, they havent restructured and dont know what to do.......At least Thomas Cook fired its CEO

A large out of town shopping centre near Leeds had to nearly close its car parks for 3 days this week due to volume of shoppers...and dont tell me they were all just looking.

Thomas Cook will survive, because although many are unemployed there are many more millions in work and for most a holiday is now what keeps them going.

[macdo]

pretty standard for flights to be half empty or less at certain times of the year, been that way for years, I did half a dozen TCX flights in the run up to Xmas with no seats available on the flight. Neither of these things means anything, the key for IT is turning a profit on the package, not putting just bums on seats. That policy bankrupted MyTravel, basically not knowing what their profit margin was. In actuality, the margin was non-existent and each holiday was actually sold at a loss. TCGroup are a bit smarter than that, but have been stuffed by greed and arrogance in the boardroom. Hmm, heard that before. The question is now, whether the rest of the profitable group can sustain the loss making UK while we take our pain, then (if) when we recover, can the UK operation support the storm approaching the currently profitable European Operations, whose turn it will be as sure as night follows day when the Euro implodes.
Definately a year to keep the CV up to date! GL all for 2012.:ok:

[mart901]

Also the news about TCX financials only broke relatively recently, I would have thought a large number of package holidays are sold in advance on low deposits etc.
I do agree paully, I think TCX will survive and may even be better off long term for trimming fat and being humbled a bit. Despite what people say about the need to diversify I think its bread and butter is sunshine holidays, maybe more upmarket but maybe not.

[Capt Scribble]

Might all be down to what happens in Europe. Most of the profitable bits of TCXplc are in continental Europe and are carrying the UK business at the moment. If Europe goes down the tube in a banking crisis then that will seriousy impact the Company. Of course, in the longer term, if the PIGS were to revert back to their own currencies, then we could turn the clock back 20 years and all go to Spain and the Greek Isles for a cheap holidays again. Interesting times.

[Chidken Sangwich]

Cook confirms Manny's £1.17m payoff - www.travelweekly.co.uk (http://www.travelweekly.co.uk/Articles/2012/01/04/39205/cook+confirms+mannys+1.17m+payoff.html)

[Mr @ Spotty M]

Sorry we are all in the wrong jobs.
For all you pilots, if you :mad: up as he has done, you would not be collecting a big pay off as he has.
However your next of kin might get a fair size insurance pay out, if you know what l mean. :E

[Topspotter]

Hardly unexpected was it....
BBC News - Thomas Cook summer package bookings dive (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16679669)

[monarchnew]

I'm no expert on matters like these but I would imagine that it doesn't take a genius to work out TCXs strategy at the moment.

Bookings may be down 33% year on year, but they've got 8% less holidays to sell. Combine this with the fact their margins are much better than last year I would say they are in quite a good position to start making a bit more profit.

Effectively they've got less to sell and what they have go to sell they are selling it at a higher price.

Perhaps it would be more useful if someone gifted with maths factored in the 8% cut in capacity then worked out how its comparing with the previous year.

I've got a soft spot for Thomas Cook, really wishing them luck!!!!

[Penworth]

I'm no expert either, but I'm not sure how a 33% drop in bookings can be explained away by an 8% reduction in capacity :confused:

[monarchnew]

I'm not saying it completely explains it, I was just saying that although bookings as a whole are down 33% year on year, with the 8% cut in capacity along with the margins being a LOT better when compared to previous years they are still in a better position than it looks at face value.

[waco]

lets face it...its just a matter of time...........

[monarchnew]

Yes the company is in a pretty bad way but I'd be willing to wager my house on Thomas Cook still being around in ten years time.

Although bookings are reported to be down looking at a 2 week snap shop compared to last year, bookings for the summer had been ahead of schedule in October, November and December. Combine that with the fact they have reduced the number of holidays they had to sell they are pretty much in line with last year in terms of the percentage of holidays they have left to sell.

Having been made redundant twice in the last 9 years it really aggravates me when people seem to revel at the prospect of the demise of a company and the fact that thousands of people will lose their jobs.

I really fail to see how a comment like "its only a matter of time" is even worth posting. Its hardly constructive is it?!

[Topspotter]

Its a rumour website mate, if someone thinks TCX will not be around in ten years they can say so, the fact you dont consider it "constructive" matters not a jot

I too hope they survive, however TBH the way the public now perceive them to be in the last chance saloon does not help, why would jo public book with TCX when he can get the same deal with a company he deems to be safe, if you have one summer holiday to look forward to are you really going to risk it?.

[waco]

monarchnew

I posess a number of the "redundancy" tee shirts thank you.

The whole market has changed. The charter market is deminishing especially in the UK as witnesses by how many UK charter airlines are no longer with us.

I have no doubt what-so-ever that TCX will survive as they remain profitable in Germany and Scandanavia.

However, TCX performance in the UK is lamentable and getting worse, fact.

The question is how long the UK operation will be allowed to operate on this basis.

Oh and just for the record. They have a very large portion of my pension and it is not in my interest to see this buisness disappear.

We are seeing many famous names in high street disappear. The same I fear will happen to TCX UK........it is...a matter of time especially when you factor in the perilous state of the UK economy alongside many of its European counterparts.

No, its not good. But lets not pretend. This is a very real possibility.

[macdo]

I do wish people would stop posting cr*P like that above about TCX, for a start this is a PILOTS forum so its about FLYING the problems with TCX are about the TOUR OPERATOR, so post stuff like this on a TOURISIM FORUM. At least look at whats around and be even handed about it, see below!
Should I buy shares in Thomas Cook? | Interactive Investor (http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/23986/should-i-buy-shares-thomas-cook)
I'll leave now..........:}

[Topspotter]

It think you may well find old chap that the fortunes of the tour operator will have a direct impact upon the airline, therefore id say these posts are very relevant, and strictly speaking this is not a exclusive pilots forum

[macdo]

PROFESSIONAL PILOTS RUMOR NETWORK, the name is kind of a giveaway, but this is a public forum, so post away. BUT, if you re-hash garbage from the press about my airline and are so lazy that you can't even put up a bit of reasoned argument as to why you think this article might be accurate, then I'll feel free to get agitated when I'm told I might be made UNEMPLOYED by the end of the year. There were several articles refuting the original Financial Times garbage had the poster bothered to check.:ugh:

[monarchnew]

Makes for interesting reading.

Thomas Cook dismisses reports of 'slump' - www.travelweekly.co.uk (http://www.travelweekly.co.uk/Articles/2012/01/24/39380/thomas+cook+dismisses+reports+of+slump.html)

[Topspotter]

"Garbage from the press"?? ...The companies going down the pan mate, if you wish to do a ostrich impersonation carry on, but dont castigate people for saying it as it actually is.

[Jonty]

How do you work that one out then Topspotter? May be you could enlighten us with your extensive knowledge of Tomas Cook. Especially the part about how one inaccurate article in the FT relating to a 2 week booking period for a business that accounts for only 10% of the group as a whole means that Thomas Cook is going down the pan.

[Chidken Sangwich]

Jonty - would it be anything to do with the close on £1bn worth of debt that need re-financing???

[Jonty]

Now THAT is the problem. Not the inaccurate press reports.

[pug]

I had a meeting with a couple of Thomas Cook managers last month; and while they clearly anticipating tough trading conditions this year, they were relatively upbeat about the future and have made capacity cuts (among other things) to ensure they make it out the other end. Hopefully stronger.

"Garbage from the press"?? ...The companies going down the pan mate, if you wish to do a ostrich impersonation carry on, but dont castigate people for saying it as it actually is.

I dont know why you would want to post such a thing on a forum that you know employees visit?

[JSCL]

To top it all off, anybody buying anything via Co-operative Travel will no longer receive points contributing towards their dividend.

[chuzwuza]

Bravo macdo. Well said!

[tinyflyerBHX]

With regards booking being down! All I can say is a 2 week period is not reflective enough of the entire situation bookings for summer 2012 were ahead where they were expected to be at the end of last year incidacting people had booked earlier than usual? Another thing spend per head is higher meaning bookings being made are of a higher value and shops are discounting less this means that the yield is much better and that is what is needed going forward! It's alright having having full planes and high volumes but only if you are making a profit on what is sold! When press are looking at bookings they are not looking At the yield just bums on seats :=

With the co-operative travel and membership points. You can still earn membership points in all co-operative branded shops and staff will happily help become a member if you are not already one just ask. :)

Going forward things maybe hard but it's certainly going in the right direction moving away from low yield low profit to high yield high profit packages. :)

[JSCL]

tinyflyerBHX,

Considering The Co-operative have expressed their issues in the matter to TCX, your statement is false. You can no longer earn co-op points in the Co-operative Travel stores nor receive a dividend on those purchases. Additionally, Co-Op staff members no longer receive their 5% discount, but instead a less appealing deal from TCX.

[tinyflyerBHX]

Please provide evidence to back up what you are saying!

Certainly in the area where I live you can still earn membership on purchases in The co-operative, midlands co-operative and Ilkeston co-op branded travel shops! I got asked for for my card yesterday when paying a balance. I have just checked both the co-operative group and midlands co-operative websites and its states you earn 1point for every £2 spent in travel!

I also know some one who works for Midlands co-op and they got 5% staff discount off there holiday when they booked at last minute deal on Saturday!

I don't know where your getting your info from but please check your sources.

Kind regards


tinyflyerBHX

[JSCL]

Oh my information comes from a lady who is a close personal friend of mine whose surname is Barr.

TCX are instead wanting to push their 'Friends and Families' scheme vs the original 5% co-op staff discount scheme. I'm unsure if this is a current situation or that the Co-op have been notified of TCx's intention to create such a situation. Either way, this news arrived to the Co-op on Tuesday.

[tinyflyerBHX]

As far as membership is concerned I've just spoken to a friend who is branch manager on the co-operative side and memebership is still very much being promoted in shops and people are still earning points and dividend on said points.

Staff discount maybe about to change but nothing communicated yet. still the old scheme in place.

Now back to aviation.

Kind regards

tinyflyerBHX

[waco]

Ummmmmmm

Now its probably me......but

AA/ Massive debt to restructure.

BB/ Despite plenty of cut backs and redundancies bookings are well down according to various sources.

CC/ The IT market in the UK is in decline and has been for some time.

DD/ TCX board does not seem to have had a happy time of things.

EE/ Uk economy looks like having its double dip recession. To be confirmed in due course.

FF/ The Euro Zone dangling on a precipice and the IMF warning of "1930" type conditions.

GG/ Iran situation pointing towards a potential fuel price hike of historic proportions.

Yep TCX is in a great position.

Best of luck to them....we might all need it in the comming months.......

[deepknight]

AsTopspotter clearly knows how TC is doing far better than the board, the city, or the media, perhaps he'd be kind enough to advise me: should I put my house on the market now? Should I go for that contract captain's job in China and tell my wife she won't be seeing me for four weeks out of six, should I think of selling my golf clubs on e-bay because by the end of the winter I'll have eaten through my savings trying to keep my head above water in the wonderful world of the unemployed? Because that's what happens Topspotter "mate" when our employers go down that "pan" of yours. There's a whole bunch of us on this site who've been through just that situation before, and we don't need you to remind us of what can happen to a struggling company.
No, of course things aren't great at TC at the moment. But there are some good people trying very hard to recover. Bookings were going to be down because of the declared move from volume to margin, and the endless bad press. No one has yet substantiated that 30% slide. It came from a rumour in the travel press. One monitoring company has already refuted that they were the source. But hey, since when did the media feel the need to apply balance? We'll know the truth on 8 Feb with the latest city up-date. And as matter of detail, that debt doesn't need restructuring, it needs reducing. Which is why the group is selling non-core assets.
So, Topspotter, next time you come across someone lying injured in the street, maybe you'd like to wish the victim and the paramedics the very best of luck, because telling them "you're going down the pan mate" will not reflect well upon your generosity.

[Topspotter]

No need to lecture me about the realities of the free market im afraid as with most in this game ive been surplus to requirements a few times .
Actually even though the company in the UK is indeed going down the pan at present it will im sure survive in a smaller form if the board have the courage to take the required action.
As for the airline i think more and more work will be farmed out indeed thats already happening, and i can see more of the aircraft maintenance work being done out of house in fact it may go altogether TCX can no longer IMO afford the luxury of its own engineering business

[Topspotter]

Im afraid the engineering side is far from profitable, in fact it made a large loss last year.
The only way that huge hanger over at man is ever going to make a profit is when its generating large amounts of man hours and that means big labour intensive maintenance checks year round, not being used as it is currently with the massive overheads incurred, i think this time next year all that will reamain is possibly a line engineering operation