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modtinbasher
24th Sep 2011, 16:25
OK, we need to travel, however, UK residents contemplating trips to the Eurozone are being "advised" by various pundits to "don't take a lot of euros with you in case it goes down"!

Today, the Maily Dail reveals that "the euro could be bust in 5 weeks."

Is this a load of gobble or what? Just about to get ours for a 3 week trip in 2 weeks time, should we do this or accept that all our learnéd money masters actually have a clue, and just carry on rewardless?

MTB

Capetonian
24th Sep 2011, 16:28
I wonder if the Daily Telegraph know something that the rest of us only suspect. The Saturday edition is priced at £1.90 or €1.80!

Lon More
24th Sep 2011, 16:40
Well if it was in the Mail it must be true.

green granite
24th Sep 2011, 16:41
I could crash out completely I suppose but I think it's very unlikely, but it could loose heavily against the £ so don't buy till the day before you go. BUT forex is a gamble it could go the other way.

What I would like to know is what happens to any credit card transactions if the currency goes totally TU?

SASless
24th Sep 2011, 19:55
If the Euro tanks....and you have a wad of them in yer pocket...the up side is you have Historical items immediately. (I still hang on to my Confederate Dollars just in case we make a comeback!) Does that mean all my "old" European currency might be worth something again?

Checkboard
24th Sep 2011, 20:25
(I still hang on to my Confederate Dollars just in case we make a comeback!)

... and it's a good thing you do! :)

Today, the value of [Confederate] notes is far from worthless. Their prices range from under one hundred dollars for the most common and heavily printed series, to the tens of thousands for the rarest. Most of the heavily printed issues are still readily available to some extent, while the rarer issues are tightly held by collectors, and don't surface that often. One thing is certain though, quality Confederate notes have shown to steadily increase in value over the years, and make a good investment.

mixture
24th Sep 2011, 20:46
Is this a load of gobble or what? Just about to get ours for a 3 week trip in 2 weeks time, should we do this or accept that all our learnéd money masters actually have a clue, and just carry on rewardless?

Forex in itself is a risk.

But then so is keeping you cash in the bank with todays inflation and low interest rates.

You could also get run over by a bus.

Or a nice gentleman could offer to "give you a hand" with the wedge of cash he's just seen you with.

Moral of the story is, if you're going to get cash out of the bank, don't get out more than you can afford to loose. Whether that "loss" is direct, indirect or consequential is irrelevant.

M.Mouse
24th Sep 2011, 21:12
Aaaaaararrrrggghhhhh!

Loose = not tight,
Loose = not tight,
Loose = not tight,
Loose = not tight,
Loose = not tight,
Loose = not tight,
Loose = not tight,
Loose = not tight,
Loose = not tight,
Loose = not tight,
Loose = not tight,
Loose = not tight.

Sorry, I try to ignore spelling and similar errors but that one makes me scream and is so common.

Ah, that feels better, please carry on.

mixture
24th Sep 2011, 21:16
M.Mouse,

Quickfire posting + tired = recipe for disaster.

I bow to your temporary superior intellect dear Sir, until such time as I get some sleep and regain mine. :E

M.Mouse
24th Sep 2011, 21:38
....superior intellect....

How I wish!

I wonder if green garanite was tired too?

I knew I shouldn't have said anything.

Sallyann1234
24th Sep 2011, 21:52
Is this a load of gobble or what? Just about to get ours for a 3 week trip in 2 weeks time, should we do this or accept that all our learnéd money masters actually have a clue, and just carry on rewardless?

Of course it's a load of gobble. The worst that can happen is that the exchange rate may change a few percent either way. Given that you are only talking about travel money and not investing huge capital sums, you will not notice the difference.

stuckgear
24th Sep 2011, 21:55
I wonder if green garanite was tired too?



Aaaaaararrrrggghhhhh!


green granite
green granite
green granite
green granite
green granite

:E;)

Shack37
24th Sep 2011, 22:28
The other question being......if you don't take Euros, what do you take?

corsair
24th Sep 2011, 23:00
Well, I'm effed as my pockets are full of the things. Well not full, more like sparsely populated. In fact with my overdraft being as it is. Do I in fact owe the equivalent of a fiver in real money?

When exactly are the Greeks going to default? It's getting silly now. Let's get this over with.

I'm not too bothered as all I have are debts. No money in the bank which is going to crash anyway.

Jane-DoH
24th Sep 2011, 23:58
Well, if the E.U. fails, every nation in the E.U. will have to bail out all of each other's banks... this would be very beneficial for the banks from the standpoint of money and power.

Um... lifting...
25th Sep 2011, 06:05
Get it from the ATM. Getting furrin cash from a bank in your home country is about the most foolish thing one can do (check the buy/sell spread for one... when you see it's on the order of 10%... well, that's how much you're being ripped off). Of course, Europe being full of usurious banking charges (and for what?, I might add), it maybe appears intelligent at first blush.
Pre-ATM days, one was in Trinidad and went to a kiosk to exchange some dosh. Was informed by the kiosk dweller that the local scrip was going to be devalued hugely the following morning... did not believe him, but went off without cash in hand anyway. Lo and behold, he had been telling the truth! Got a day's worth, and spent it.

stuckgear
25th Sep 2011, 06:50
Well, if the E.U. fails, every nation in the E.U. will have to bail out all of each other's banks... this would be very beneficial for the banks from the standpoint of money and power.


the EU and the EMU are slightly different things Jane. Best not let situational awareness get in the way of a good tinfoil hat alert. :ok:

ORAC
25th Sep 2011, 07:22
£1.75 trillion deal to save the euro (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8786945/1.75-trillion-deal-to-save-the-euro.html)

ccabBm8TxLI&feature=player_embedded

WestWind1950
25th Sep 2011, 08:30
The other question being......if you don't take Euros, what do you take?

when traveling I usually just take enough "emergency" cash with me, the rest I get in country from an ATM using my Master- or Visacard. That usually works quite well. If the € fails, you won't be alone with your troubles anyway, believe me... let the credit card people figure out how to transact it. :cool:

Mike6567
25th Sep 2011, 09:16
I have read you must be wary of accepting euro notes with serial numbers that are prefixed with the letters Y (coming from Greece) or M (from Portugal).
Also steer clear of serial numbers starting with G (Cyprus), S (Italy), V (Spain), T (Ireland) and F (Malta).

Capetonian
25th Sep 2011, 09:18
you must be wary of accepting euro notes with serial numbers that are prefixed with the letters Y (coming from Greece) or M (from Portugal).
Also steer clear of serial numbers starting with G (Cyprus), S (Italy), V (Spain), T (Ireland) and F (Malta).

Thanks, I'll stick to my Swiss ones then prefixed CH!

P.S This is no more senseless than the original comment!

It looks as if this pathetic, unrealistic doomed-to-fail experimental project which was dreamed up ny politicians for ther own glory, and condemned by economists, is about to cost the UK payer £1.75 trillion.
£1.75 trillion deal to save the euro - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8786945/1.75-trillion-deal-to-save-the-euro.html)

Cacophonix
25th Sep 2011, 09:28
Sorry, I try to ignore spelling and similar errors but that one makes me scream and is so common.

Ah, that feels better, please carry on.

Cut loose Mighty M but don't lose it! :)


Caco

sitigeltfel
25th Sep 2011, 09:48
It looks as if this pathetic, unrealistic doomed-to-fail experimental project which was dreamed up ny politicians for ther own glory, and condemned by economists, is about to cost the UK payer £1.75 trillion.
£1.75 trillion deal to save the euro - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8786945/1.75-trillion-deal-to-save-the-euro.html)

You might just want to read that article again...

Most of the money in the new rescue package would come from the EFSF - limiting Britain's involvement.

Capetonian
25th Sep 2011, 10:43
Yes, I did spot that, but didn't want to let the facts get in the way of a good rant! Britain is not even part of the EFSF so it is unclear from the article, despite its sensationalist headline, what Britain's exposure would be but it would surely be substantial. All it says is This could mean British taxpayers paying out more than the £1billion they are already slated to have to contribute under the terms of the first Greek bailout fund.

It goes on to say ..............

Most of the money in the new rescue package would come from the EFSF - limiting Britain's involvement. The fund is currently valued at £350billion, but would need much more cash pumped into it from its members states.

........ so Britain's exposure will still be pretty hefty and as it is not part of the Euro experiment, one could argue that it should not have to contribute to keeping it on life support.

sitigeltfel
25th Sep 2011, 10:56
Although I live in the eurozone I would not be unhappy for the currency to go tits up. France, Germany and a few others would not take long to recover from its meltdown if their people defended their right not to fund the profligate, freeloading countries who expect others to foot their wasteful and corrupt regimes. Nearly every receipt I receive here still has the equivalent value in Francs displayed on it, a switch would not be painless but it is getting close to every man for himself, with politicians wondering how long their voters will put up with it. Interesting times, indeed!

flying lid
25th Sep 2011, 17:58
Can Greece actually leave the euro? – Telegraph Blogs (http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielknowles/100092965/can-greece-actually-leave-the-euro/)

As Greece sits on the edge of collapse, European finance ministers are meeting today. The key question is how can Greece default in an orderly way, without destroying Europe. But here's one thing that Greece definitely can't do – however bad things get, it cannot leave the euro.
Here's why: as the economic historian Barry Eichengreen points out (http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/729), any exit would take time to organise, (unlike an exit from say, the ERM, or the gold standard) and so everyone in Greece would anticipate it. If he has any sense, the first thing the average Greek would then do is take all of his money and move it from Athens to Frankfurt as fast as you can open an internet browser. So within about ten minutes of the announcement of the plans, Greek would not just have a sovereign debt crisis to deal with; it would be in the middle of a bank run, with everyone trying to avoid ending up with devalued drachma.
What would follow would be even worse. If Greece leaves, the speculators will immediately start to wonder whether Ireland, or Portugal, or even Spain, might decide on the same course of action. Few would wait to find out, and so money would soon start moving out of Irish, Spanish and Portuguese banks straight into German ones. There is no risk in moving money after all. So next, Ireland, Spain and Portugal find that they have banking crises. And as the cashpoints in those countries literally run dry, anyone holding their debt (ie: British and German banks) would be next. So the bank run spreads. Within a few weeks, or even days, of Greece leaving the euro, you have a European-wide financial crisis that would make the credit crunch look like a day at the beach.

So while it would be wonderful if the euro could break up easily (as Boris Johnson seems to imply (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/borisjohnson/8585734/The-greatest-gift-to-the-Greeks-might-be-to-let-them-go-it-alone.html)), unfortunately, that's not an option. In fact, the mere threat of default is a gun that Greece is pointing, like a crazed and cornered bank robber, at every other finance minister around the table in Luxembourg today. Democratic mandate or not, we cannot simply leave Greece to get on with it, any more than we could have let the banks fail in 2008. The tragedy is this: the euro is not only broken – it is also irreversible.

Lid

stuckgear
25th Sep 2011, 18:22
Lid,

an interesting concept, however the same could have been the case argument prior to the cessation of the local currencies at the time.

In other words to re-instate the local currencies the printing press plates need to be dusted off, and the printing presses restarted, then as the bills are delivered to the banks, deposits transferred over at a determined rate of euro to local currency...

Lon More
25th Sep 2011, 18:22
Whilst it pains be to believe that the Toryraph may once be correct I think any triumph from the Little Engelanders over the demise of the € will be extremely short-lived before Sterling follows it down the pan.

Me, all transferred to conch shells.

stuckgear
25th Sep 2011, 19:21
Lon,

the conch shell harvest has been good, what with AGW (:hmm:), so as a currency it's been in a state of quantative easing... the smart money is moving into starfish!

sell, shell, shell !

Lon More
25th Sep 2011, 21:59
Stuckgear I have never been accused of being smart.

Dr Jekyll
26th Sep 2011, 05:39
an interesting concept, however the same could have been the case argument prior to the cessation of the local currencies at the time.


Except that there wasn't a widespread expectation that the Euro would plummet in value after the changeover.

tony draper
26th Sep 2011, 07:49
Why dont they make it illegal to trade buy sell/speculate on money itself ie the basic means of exchange itself,never saw the benifit to the general population of this,how does this betting shop benifit us?
:confused:

garp
26th Sep 2011, 07:52
^^^ Perhaps the dollar and euro will be linked to each other at some stage. Still a bit of downward movement for the euro first (parity?) and then they can link them as far as I am concerned.

Just a spotter
26th Sep 2011, 11:14
As someone else quite succinctly put it "calm down dear".

It's unlikely that the Euro is going anywhere, or that it will become necessary to scrutinise the heads of coins and the serial numbers of notes to determine which flavour of the currency you have in your pocket.

Greece's debt is so small as to be insignificant in the context of the EuroZone economy and even if it does default, which will elevate the pressure, moves are already afoot to compensate the exposed banks ; Ireland is behaving itself, taking its medicine and getting on with its austerity; Italy runs a primary budgetary surplus, and only has a deficit because of its massive historical debts, the main reason it won't default is becuase much of its sovereign debt is held by Italians; Spain has some banking issues, but the fall out from its property bubble aside, it's manageable; which just leave Portugal, no biggie either.

The markets are looking for weaknesses and have found a number of stress points. But are ignoring the problems within the US economy, the fact that much of the market does not believe the Chinese economic figures (despite cheering them when they're released) and then there's the small problems within the UK, most of the growth around London and the 3rd largest economic region of the Union (Scotland) has drafted legislation to facilitate leaving, with a stated aim of then joining the Euro.

JAS

Capetonian
26th Sep 2011, 11:30
Why dont they make it illegal to trade buy sell/speculate on money itself ie the basic means of exchange itself,never saw the benifit to the general population of this,how does this betting shop benifit us?

Because that is what capitalism allows and encourages. Whether it's right or wrong depends on one's perspective, and on whether one is a winner or loser.

Shack37
26th Sep 2011, 15:49
Dr. Jekyll


Except that there wasn't a widespread expectation that the Euro would plummet in value after the changeover.


The Euro didn't exactly "plummet" against the £. In fact the reverse,

Capetonian
26th Sep 2011, 16:10
The great euro swindle | The Spectator (http://www.spectator.co.uk/essays/all/7256618/the-great-euro-swindle.thtml)



The great euro swindle

Peter Oborne and Frances Weaver

24 September 2011



Finally, the Eurosceptics have been vindicated. But will their dishonest opponents ever be held to account?

Very rarely in political history has any faction or movement enjoyed such a complete and crushing victory as the Conservative Eurosceptics. The field is theirs. They were not merely right about the single currency, the greatest economic issue of our age — they were right for the right reasons. They foresaw with lucid, prophetic accuracy exactly how and why the euro would bring with it financial devastation and social collapse.

Meanwhile the pro-Europeans find themselves in the same situation as appeasers in 1940, or communists after the fall of the Berlin Wall. They are utterly busted. Let’s examine the case of the Financial Times, which claims to be Britain’s premier economic publication. About 25 years ago something went very wrong with the FT. It ceased to be the dry, rigorous journal of economic record that was so respected under its great postwar editor Sir Gordon Newton.

Turning its back on its readers, it was captured by a clique of left-wing journalists. An early sign that something was going wrong came when the FT came out against the Falklands invasion. Naturally it supported Britain’s entry to the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1990. In 1992, under the slow-witted editorship of Richard Lambert (in a later incarnation, as director general of the Confederation of British Industry, Sir Richard was to become one of the most sycophantic apologists for Gordon Brown’s premiership), it endorsed Neil Kinnock as prime minister. It has been wrong on every single major economic judgment over the past quarter century.

The central historical error of the modern Financial Times concerns the euro. The FT flung itself headlong into the pro-euro camp, embracing the cause with an almost religious passion. Doubts were dismissed. Here is the paper’s supposedly sceptical and contrarian Lex column on 8 January 2001, on the subject of Greek entry to the eurozone. ‘With Greece now trading in euros,’ reflected Lex, ‘few will mourn the death of the drachma. Membership of the eurozone offers the prospect of long-term economic stability.’ The FT offered a similar warm welcome to Ireland.

The paper waged a vendetta against those who warned that the euro would not work. Its chief political columnist Philip Stephens consistently mocked the Eurosceptics. ‘Immaturity is the kind explanation,’ sneered Stephens as Tory leader William Hague came out against the single currency.

Even as late as May 2008, when the fatal booms in Ireland and elsewhere were very obviously beginning to falter, the paper retained its faith: ‘European monetary union is a bumble bee that has taken flight,’ asserted the newspaper’s leader column. ‘However improbable the celestial design, it has succeeded in real life.’ For a paper with the FT’s pretensions to authority in financial matters, its coverage of the single currency can be regarded as nothing short of a disaster.

Just as bad was the CBI, whose claims to represent British industry as a whole have always been dubious at best. By the mid-1990s a small clique of large corporations were firmly in control, and they had the director general they wanted in the shape of the impeccably well connected Adair (now Lord) Turner, later to become chairman of the disastrous Financial Services Authority and chairman of the Government’s Committee on Climate Change. Few pieces of conventional wisdom are ever too conventional for Lord Turner. His corporate bosses (Niall FitzGerald of Unilever, David Simon of BP, British Airways’ Colin Marshall) claimed that an overwhelming majority of British businessmen backed the single currency — a vital propaganda tool for pro-euro campaigners. The figures used to support these claims were, however, very flimsy indeed: they could only be sustained by ignoring the views of small businessmen, and in due course they were exposed — a crucial early defeat for the pro-euro cause.

Now let’s turn to the BBC. In our Centre for Policy Studies pamphlet, Guilty Men, we expose in detail how the BBC betrayed its charter commitment, lost its sense of fair-mindedness and became in effect a partisan player in a great national debate — all the more insidious because of its pretence at neutrality.

There is only space here to deal with a small amount of our evidence, but this is one example of BBC bias. In the nine weeks leading to 21 July 2000, when the argument over the euro was at its height, the Today programme featured 121 speakers on the topic. Some 87 were pro-euro compared to 34 who were anti. The case for the euro was represented by twice as many figures, interviews and soundbites as the case against. BBC broadcasters tended to present the pro-euro position itself as centre ground, thus defining even moderately Eurosceptic voices as extreme, meaning that they were defeated even before they had entered the debate.

But this was not the worst of the unfairness. The Eurosceptics were too rarely given time to state their reasons for favouring sterling. Their position was too often covered through a paradigm of deep, ‘explosive’, splits within the Conservative party rather than the merits of the policy argument. Again and again the BBC would lead its news coverage on scare stories that failure to join the euro would lead to economic or industrial disaster. When those reports turned out to be false, it failed to correct them. In fact Britain was enjoying record levels of foreign investment: but when Office for National Statistics figures showed this, the BBC made very little of it.

This is not to say that the BBC was consciously biased. It was simply that the high-minded attitudes of many BBC reporters and producers meshed only too well with the pressure groups. But this bias went very deep indeed. As Rod Liddle, then editor of the Radio 4’s Today programme, said: ‘The whole ethos of the BBC and all the staff was that Eurosceptics were xenophobes and there was an end to it. The euro would come up at a meeting and everybody would just burst out laughing about the Eurosceptics.’ Liddle recalls one meeting with a very senior figure at the BBC to deal with Eurosceptic complaints of bias. ‘Rod, the thing you have to understand is that these people are mad. They are mad.’

In truth the Eurosceptics were only too sane. Politicians like Margaret Thatcher, John Redwood, David Owen, William Hague and Bill Cash were mocked — often very cruelly — at the time. But they grasped with stunning clarity the problems the euro would bring. They deserve full credit for their courage and foresight today, and our gratitude too.

•••

Speaking in the House of Commons in 1936, Winston Churchill — then himself a marginal and widely scorned figure — uttered the following words: ‘the use of recriminating about the past is to enforce effective action at the present’. So what are the lessons we should learn from the British argument over the euro?

First, we should cherish that very British trait, eccentricity. Study of the public discourse at the height of the euro debate shows how often pro-euro propagandists isolated their critics by labelling them cranks. Here’s just one example, taken from the Observer columnist Andrew Rawnsley’s column on 31 January 1999: ‘On the pro-euro side, a grand coalition of business, the unions and the substantial, sane, front rank political figures. On the other side, a menagerie of has-beens, never-have-beens and loony tunes.’

Most of Mr Rawnsley’s ‘substantial, sane, front-rank political figures’ came together 12 years ago at the launch of the Britain in Europe campaign to take us into the euro — Tony Blair, Peter Mandelson, Michael Heseltine, Ken Clarke, Charles Kennedy, Danny Alexander. So here’s another lesson: be wary of cross-party alliances. Again and again it is the lonely and cussed figures who stand outside the establishment orthodoxy who are vindicated over time.

One urgent lesson concerns the BBC. The corporation’s twisted coverage of the European Union is a serious problem, because the economic collapse of the eurozone means that a new treaty may be needed very soon — plunging the EU right back into the heart of our national politics.

The problem is that the BBC’s record is dreadful. It simply cannot be trusted not to become part of a partisan propaganda operation: just look at the membership of the BBC Trust. Both its chairman, Lord Patten, and the vice chairman, Diane Coyle, took a heavily partisan position in the euro debate.

The facts concerning Lord Patten are well enough known, but we have unearthed very troubling evidence of bias and misrepresentation concerning Ms Coyle in her role as economics writer for the Independent ten years ago. Here’s an example of her prejudicial analysis: ‘The defenders of sterling are, in the main, a group of elderly men with more stake in their past than in our future. They clothe their gut anti-Europeanism and Little Englandism in the language of rational economic argument.’

Of course Ms Coyle is welcome to voice whatever unfounded and insulting assumptions she wants about the motivations of Eurosceptics — but they call into question her membership of the BBC Trust. The presence of Lord Patten and Ms Coyle as the two most senior figures of the BBC Trust, with a statutory duty to enforce impartiality, is unacceptable, all the more so because of the BBC’s disastrous past record of bias and prejudice.

Finally, it remains essential for our democracy that the pro-euro point of view should be heard. But first of all the euro supporters need to tell us why they tried to put Britain on the calamitous path of joining the single currency. Let’s consider the remark made by Danny Alexander, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, that those he labelled as anti-European isolationists or nationalists were ‘enemies of growth’.

For five years Mr Alexander ran the pro-euro campaign, and had he had his way would have steered Britain directly to economic catastrophe. How dare he denounce Eurosceptics in this way? It’s way past time for the pro-euro supporters to be called to account.

Guilty Men, by Peter Oborne and Frances Weaver, will soon be published by the Centre for Policy Studies with a foreword by Peter Jay. Frances Weaver is a freelance writer and researcher.

vulcanised
26th Sep 2011, 17:07
Thanks for that Cape.

It helps to explain why I found the FT somewhat confusing in its attitude all those years ago.

green granite
26th Sep 2011, 17:46
An interesting article Capetonian, the bit about the BBC also applies to their current attitude to AGW, so they haven't changed their spots.

stuckgear
26th Sep 2011, 19:39
Why dont they make it illegal to trade buy sell/speculate on money itself ie the basic means of exchange itself,never saw the benifit to the general population of this,how does this betting shop benifit us?



Well it's part and parcel of trade.

Take for example a company make a capital equipment purchase for say a factory production line system, that may say cost a few million, but will take a couple of months or even years to deliver, the currency fluctuations could well make a substantial delivery cost on that purchase if one currency rises, or the other falls. So, the ability to hedge on currency fluctuations allows international trade to determine a price with a currency figured hedged at a rate.

The same thing can and does happen with aircraft purchases which not only can involve tens of millions, but multiples of that with future delivery dates.

so in order for currency to hedged, spotted and forwarded you now have currency speculation and the currency market. It can also happen in the way large retail outlets purchase large amounts of consumer goods from overseas.

Without the ability to do so that TV or MP3 player could be next month be 30% cheaper than the price you paid for it last month or 30% mores in two months time. In terms of things like aircraft, it could simply mean an airline going bust on a capital equipment purchase that it committed to 2 years ago and due for delivery next year because the currency change may put 30, 40 or even 50% on the cost of aircraft that it comiitted to purchase and spread that across a multiple order of say 10 aircraft, the financial difference could be immense.

so in a way, it does benefit us all at all levels.

tony draper
26th Sep 2011, 20:20
Surely if the exchange rate was fixed by international agreement and not treated like something up on a board at Ladbrokes by a bunch pinstripped spivs at canary wharf people would know what things would cost,incidentlyI would do away with stock markets world wide as well,if you wish to buy stock in aparticular company you buy it off said company and if you wish to sell it you are obliged to sell it back to the same company,yoiu buy stocks with the hope they will earn a dividend as I suspect was origionally intended and not treat em like a nag in the 3.30 at Kempton
These are just suggestions of course but something is obviously drastically wrong with the way things are done now.
:rolleyes:

vee-tail-1
26th Sep 2011, 20:53
This link gives a different take on money and how it is misused.

A Simple Solution to the Debt Crisis | Positive Money (http://www.positivemoney.org.uk/)

Dr Jekyll
27th Sep 2011, 08:02
Surely if the exchange rate was fixed by international agreement and not treated like something up on a board at Ladbrokes by a bunch pinstripped spivs at canary wharf people would know what things would cost

It's trying to have a fixed exchange rate between Greece and (for example) Germany that mainly caused this mess.

ORAC
27th Sep 2011, 10:27
German turmoil over EU bail-outs as top judge calls for referendum (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8790785/German-turmoil-over-EU-bail-outs-as-top-judge-calls-for-referendum.html)

Germany's top judge has issued a blunt warning that no further fiscal powers may be surrendered to Europe without a new constitution and a popular referendum, vastly complicating plans to boost the EU's rescue machinery to €2 trillion (£1.7 trillion).

Capetonian
27th Sep 2011, 10:29
Surely if the exchange rate was fixed by international agreement and not treated like something up on a board at Ladbrokes by a bunch pinstripped spivs at canary wharf people would know what things would cost,incidentlyI would do away with stock markets world wide as well,if you wish to buy stock in aparticular company you buy it off said company and if you wish to sell it you are obliged to sell it back to the same company,yoiu buy stocks with the hope they will earn a dividend as I suspect was origionally intended and not treat em like a nag in the 3.30 at Kempton

Tony, why re-invent the wheel? It's called communism and it has proved itself to be a failure. Admittedly what we have now may not be a lot better.

Lon More
27th Sep 2011, 10:33
Maybe if the world leaders banned currency speculation for a period of six months the situation might stabilise.

Be a few bwankers having to do without their Columbian Marching Powder and Porsches though.

Alternatively, just toss the Greeks/Irish/Italians out and let them fend for themselves

tony draper
27th Sep 2011, 10:44
Currency speculation is one of the biggest spiv enterprizes ever dreamt up,manipulating the basic means of exchange itself benefits few but the golden monkeys in the square mile.
Perhaps it's time we gave Fascism another spin Mr C.:E

Capetonian
27th Sep 2011, 11:02
Or perhaps you need to join the other side, Tony! Go and have a look and see what communism did and then come and bleat about how great it is!

tony draper
27th Sep 2011, 11:10
As everything else appears to have been tried perhaps we should go back to a barter economy.
"I shall give you three flint arrow heads for that bag of cabbages my good man"
:E
I reckon our fundamental problem is there are 5.5 billion to many of us talking monkies wandering the Earth,something has to give,a great cull is coming.
:uhoh:

pvmw
27th Sep 2011, 11:14
"I shall give you three flint arrow heads for that bag of cabbages my good man"
Wouldn't be long before someone is dealing in arrow head futures.

Lon More
27th Sep 2011, 11:43
or it becomes, "give me that bag of cabbages before I insert these three flint arrow heads into your scrawny body."

I reckon it'll all kick off in Africa, sooner rather than later with the bwankers still treating it as a place to make a quick buck. One morning the locals will wake up and remember that white man tastes just like chicken.

Just a spotter
27th Sep 2011, 11:59
Currency speculation is one of the biggest spiv enterprizes ever dreamt up,manipulating the basic means of exchange itself benefits few but the golden monkeys in the square mile.Perhaps, but the entire current banking and monetary system is something of a confidence trick.

pEAjOk_UY9I

KyDU4X8GSmE

Both clips are from a certain 'perspective', but aren't too far from the actual workings of the system

JAS

ORAC
27th Sep 2011, 12:00
One morning the locals will wake up and remember that white man tastes just like chicken. Bacon. IIRC the term was "Long Pig".

tony draper
27th Sep 2011, 12:10
Only smoked long pig Mr ORAC the general concensus was pork like I believe.
:)

Storminnorm
27th Sep 2011, 14:10
Any volunteers for the pot?
The cannibals got into deep trouble for boiling the monk.
The big chief told them he wasn't a broiler, he was a Friar...

tony draper
27th Sep 2011, 14:39
With the world human population reaching the insane number it has perhaps canibalism should be encouraged,just among they furriners of course.
:rolleyes:

Lon More
27th Sep 2011, 15:43
http://www.crackajack.de/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/soylentgreen.jpghttp://www.foodiggity.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/soylent.png

stuckgear
27th Sep 2011, 17:09
I reckon it'll all kick off in Africa, sooner rather than later with the bwankers still treating it as a place to make a quick buck.


No longer..

The chinese, what with their foward planning have been active for the past few years buying up huge swathes of Africa. Mineral deposit fields/mines, agricultural land. etc etc..


why re-invent the wheel? It's called communism and it has proved itself to be a failure. Admittedly what we have now may not be a lot better.


Ahh and there lies a problem.. what we don't have is capitalism. where reward is determined by results and where failures both companies and people are kicked into the long grass, what we have is socialist based capitalism where failure is rewarded with promotion and huge financial rewards. Socialist party politics and ideologies dictate financial investment and taxpayer funds (eg. wind farms, climate changes, emissions trading etc etc), not economic viability and rational financial decision making. Where, national currencies and accounts are cooked to meet the EU demands and policy is dictated by pushing through an agenda, seeing countries lose control of their economic controls and hiding the facts until its too late and bail outs are required to keep the ideology in place despite it going down the tubes.

Capitalism hasnt caused the economic problems, ideologies have. The media tend to confuse ideologies and methods, they are not the same thing and cannot, must not, be construed as such, becase then the facts are hidden and the rot sets in.

stuckgear
27th Sep 2011, 20:59
Ironically, the most enthusiastic capitalist country in the world today is China. Meanwhile, the former free world encumbers itself ever more with the shibboleths of the left.



And Russia is another.

Perhaps the truth lays in the fact that both these countries that cover between them a large portion of the world's landmass and have bitter experience of teh failures of ideologies, whereas the 'west' has generated through capital growth, technology progress and financial capabilit; it also has had the freedoms for those with utopian ideals to have a platform to indulge socialist ideologies with the financial ability from capital growth to fund them... and basically it's bankrupted the west, while those who have endured the opression and destitution and broken into free markets don't want to ever to return to it.

go figure.

ideologies are the biggest enemy for the human race.

ORAC
27th Sep 2011, 21:39
Germany slams 'stupid' US plans to boost EU rescue fund (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8793010/Germany-slams-stupid-US-plans-to-boost-EU-rescue-fund.html)

Germany and America were on a collision course on Tuesday night over the handling of Europe's debt crisis after Berlin savaged plans to boost the EU rescue fund as a "stupid idea" and told the White House to sort out its own mess before giving gratuitous advice to others.

German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble said it would be a folly to boost the EU's bail-out machinery (EFSF) beyond its €440bn lending limit by deploying leverage to up to €2 trillion, perhaps by raising funds from the European Central Bank.
"I don't understand how anyone in the European Commission can have such a stupid idea. The result would be to endanger the AAA sovereign debt ratings of other member states. It makes no sense," he said.

Mr Schauble told Washington to mind its own businesss after President Barack Obama rebuked EU leaders for failing to recapitalise banks and allowing the debt crisis to escalate to the point where it is "scaring the world".

"It's always much easier to give advice to others than to decide for yourself. I am well prepared to give advice to the US government," he said.

OFSO
28th Sep 2011, 17:46
Scenarios:

Greece defaults, leaves eurozone, freed from encumbrance of Dodgy Drachma the euro soars in value, result, Germany can't sell anything to rest of world, chaos results.

Germany leaves eurozone, reintroduces Deutschmark, freed from the encumbrance of Dodgy Euro the neue DM soars in value, result, Germany can't sell anything to rest of the world, chaos results.

Lets have a few more scenarios:

Capetonian
28th Sep 2011, 18:08
Euro a Burning Building With No Exits, Hague Tells Spectator!



By Robert Hutton

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. Foreign Secretary William Hague said his 1998 comment that the euro area was “a burning building with no exits” has been proved right and that member countries will have to live with the consequences for decades.

Hague first described the euro in those terms when he was leading the Conservative Party in opposition and Prime Minister Tony Blair favored joining the single currency. In a 1998 speech in Fontainebleau, near Paris, Hague warned that the single currency could damage the stability of Europe by tying together economies that were too different.

In an interview with the Spectator magazine to be published tomorrow, the foreign secretary said the sovereign-debt crisis in Greece and other euro-region nations shows he was right and that the single currency “will be written about for centuries as a kind of historical monument to collective folly.” His comments reflect the U.K. government’s hostility to being involved in any rescue and may rile other European ministers trying to persuade their own voters to back bailout programs.

“I described the euro as a burning building with no exits and so it has proved for some of the countries in it,” Hague told the Spectator. His comments were confirmed by the Foreign Office in London. “Greeks or Italians or Portuguese have to accept some very big changes in what happens in their country, even bigger than if they weren’t in the euro, and Germans will have to accept that they are going to subsidize those countries for a long time to come really, for the rest of their lifetimes.”

In the interview, Hague continued the comparison. “You can have burning buildings where they manage to put out the fire or control it or get more room or something,” he said. “I might take the analogy too far but the euro wasn’t built with exits so it is very difficult to leave it.”

Former Polish Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski, who’s seeking to regain power in elections Oct. 9, said in an interview two weeks ago that Poland shouldn’t aim to join the euro area in the foreseeable future.

“It would only make our lives more difficult,” Kaczynski said. “To a great extent the floating zloty saved us. Poland will be in need of a shield like this for a long time to come.

Unfortunately we don’t have an opt-out clause from the euro.”

Experts from the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund will return to Athens tomorrow as officials race to put in place a package of measures aimed at insulating the rest of the euro area from Greece. Euro-area finance ministers will hold an extra meeting about the country’s finances in October amid international concerns that a default could plunge the global economy into recession.

Greece won’t repay all of its debt and will have to leave the euro area, Otmar Issing, the ECB’s former chief economist, was quoted as saying by Stern magazine in an interview published today.

In his interview, Hague also made clear his party’s view that Britain should scale back its involvement in the European Union.

“The EU does have too much power,” he said. “I haven’t changed that view since being in government, in fact if anything, being in government has reinforced that view. There should be powers that are returned to this country. I think we should be clear in the Conservative Party that that is where we are heading.”

While such moves may be blocked at present by the Conservatives’ pro-European Liberal Democrat coalition partners, Hague told the Spectator he viewed this as a possible dividing line between the two parties in the next election, scheduled for 2015.

Capetonian
28th Sep 2011, 19:00
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/7593647/estonia-edited-11.jpg

ORAC
29th Sep 2011, 07:05
The dangerous subversion of Germany's democracy (http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100012245/the-dangerous-subversion-of-germany-democracy/)

stuckgear
29th Sep 2011, 07:36
Eurozone's dangerous lurch towards protectionism – Telegraph Blogs (http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100012267/eurozones-dangerous-lurch-towards-protectionism/)



[...] It scarcely needs saying that the chances of global agreement on a financial transaction tax any time soon are about zero.

What's so odd about this is that Barroso's own research has shown that the tax would cost far more in lost growth than it is ever likely to raise in revenues, so far from helping to repair public balance sheets, it would only damage them further. [...]

ORAC
4th Oct 2011, 13:15
Financial Times: Eurozone fix a con trick for the desperate (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9a6d727e-eb57-11e0-9a41-00144feab49a.html#axzz1ZomoP3vh)

We are now in the stage of the crisis where people get truly desperate. The latest crazy idea, which is being pursued by officials, is to turn the eurozone’s rescue fund into an insurance company, or worse, a collateralised debt obligation, the financial instrument of choice during the credit bubble. This is the equivalent of putting explosives into a can, before kicking it down the road.

To illustrate the danger of the CDOs as a solution to the eurozone crisis, it is important to recall a few facts about what happened during the credit bubble. CDOs lured investors to put money into mortgages. The CDOs themselves had triple-A credit ratings, even though they invested in bad assets. What at first appeared to be a violation of the laws of economics, physics and logic, ultimately had a simple explanation. The overall risk of the CDO was lower than the sum of its parts. When the bubble burst, governments stepped in and prevented a catastrophe.

So why use such a toxic instrument to construct a product to save the eurozone? The current lending size of the European financial stability facility (EFSF) is €440bn, which is equal to the guarantees given by the 17 eurozone member states. If you want to leverage the CDO without increasing the liabilities of governments, then this €440bn would become the equity tranche of the new CDO. The equity holders in the CDO are supposed to be the ultimate risk-bearers. You can leverage the structure by creating more senior tranches of bonds that would be open to outside investors. You could expand the structure further through a mezzanine layer – which carries less risk than that of the equity tranche but more than that of the senior bonds. You could look at those senior tranches as eurozone bonds.

The big difference between a eurozone CDO and a subprime CDO is the the nature of the backstop. When the eurozone CDO fails, there are no governments that can bail it out because the governments themselves are already the equity holders of the system. This leaves the European Central Bank as the last man standing.

But the whole idea of setting up a eurozone CDO is to avoid this outcome. If you wanted an ECB-backed solution, you could simply grant a banking licence to the EFSF, which would make it eligible as an official central bank counterparty. I also like George Soros’ idea to focus the eurozone rescue fund solely on bank recapitalisation, in addition to a mechanism that allows eurozone countries to issue short-dated discount bonds at low interest rates. Both solutions rely heavily on active co-operation by the ECB. Unfortunately, Europe’s central bank may not accept such a role because of the way it interprets its mandate, as described by the Maastricht Treaty and its own statutes.

The real reason why European officials are pursuing the CDO option is to get round this technical obstacle. Remember that one of the main reasons why banks created CDOs in the first place was “regulatory arbitrage”, as it was euphemistically known at the time. In that case, the idea was to circumvent capital adequacy rules. CDOs allowed banks to push risky assets off their balance sheet, which gave more room to make further loans.

In the case of eurobonds, the idea is also to circumvent Article 123 of the European Treaties (which says that the ECB must not monetise debt); the ECB’s governing council; the German Constitutional Court; as well as the Bundestag and other national parliaments. What better instrument than a opaque CDO to get round those inconvenient obstacles of democratic opposition, constitutional law and international treaties.

Do not get me wrong: I am in favour of an enhanced EFSF. The current mechanism is not big enough to protect Italy and Spain, and inject fresh capital into eurozone banks. That would require a lending ceiling three of four times the current size. But we cannot get there through dirty financing tricks that have demonstrably failed in the past. If this CDO were to collapse, the eurozone might face an imminent break-up that could trigger a global financial crash.

If you accept the political and legal constraints as a given, there are no easy policy options left. There exist only two categories of solutions to the crisis: a fiscal solution or a monetary one. Politics blocks the first, European law blocks the latter. The CDO is an alluring idea from the perspective of a technocrat who has to come up with something that satisfies current political preferences and that respects perceived or actual legal constraints. On the surface, it appears as if a CDO was a third category in itself. But that is not the case because it ultimately dumps the burden on the ECB, just as the subprime mortgage CDOs became a liability for governments.

As I have argued previously, European laws and current political preference are inconsistent with the survival of the eurozone. Something will have to give. A CDO is not a solution to the crisis. It is the last confidence trick in the toolbox of the truly desperate. The eurozone is about to kick the can a final time.

Slasher
4th Oct 2011, 13:54
Germany and America were on a collision course on Tuesday
night over the handling of Europe's debt crisis after Berlin
savaged plans to boost the EU rescue fund as a "stupid idea"
and told the White House to sort out its own mess before
giving gratuitous advice to others.

I agree - its like one drunk bum telling another drunk bum
how he should moderate and control his alcohol intake.

Rengineer
4th Oct 2011, 14:49
ORAC, I agree that idea was never going to take off. One should think that the 12-digit sum currently agreed was enough to help the PIIGS out, though, at least if as an additional measure, the rates for their next bonds can be kept in a reasonable range through political pressure (or brute legislation). In any case, given that those are all in fact sovereign countries with considerable money-raising capabilities, the current crisis is more of a trust thing than truly threatening bankruptcy. If you ask me, what's needed at this point is more political guarantees of the sort "we'll raise our taxes even if it means strangling our economies and losing the next elections" from the debtors, a clear commitment to raising income, so the pressure will be relieved long enough to restructure the whole Euro zone more towards a common monetary and economic policy. Not nice but then, most of those countries have enjoyed far above-average growth since the Euro introduction, this is just the price to pay.

Jane-DoH
5th Oct 2011, 00:41
The beauty of the E.U. and various other unions of this type is that it makes it easier for one nation's economic problems to drag everybody's economies down producing a crisis. And the bankers and economists who instituted these unions are now able to exploit these crises and resulting misery to advance their agendas, which almost always include a world government run by bankers.

Ironically, their agenda requires greater (eventually total) economic centralization: Each time they centralize things, the crises which occur (whether through happenstance, or deliberate action or inaction) cause exponentially bigger crises, which they can use to further their agenda even faster.

It is, in effect, a positive feedback-loop.

cavortingcheetah
5th Oct 2011, 01:26
The delicious irony in all of this is that the creation of the Common Market from which the EU developed, although an old idea, was motivated to a very large extent by a political desire to retaliate against US commercial success and market domination following the end of WWII. It's sad that those at the cutting edge of European political engineering, De Gaulle,Wilson, Heath et al., didn't look a little more closely at the process of change in the United States that marked the development there of Territories into States. It is the commonality of the currency that prevents a Euro country from devaluing its own currency; thus usually extricating itself, albeit at the risk of inflation, from the alligator pond.

Rengineer
5th Oct 2011, 07:41
Cheetah: Never mind the missing inflation, that will come for sure. Haven't you seen the storm clouds on the horizon? Good thing is, the air smells much fresher after a storm.

OFSO and all those predicting crash and doom: It's not going to happen that way, same as it never happend to Germany. It's going to be rising inflation, couple of years of no or little growth, bit of rising unemployment, and then back to normal in maybe five years, similar to most recent so-called crisis. Nothing to worry about.

stuckgear
9th Oct 2011, 07:57
France pushes Germany on EU bank rescue deal - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8815802/France-pushes-Germany-on-EU-bank-rescue-deal.html#disqus_thread)

in the comments section from damicol:


The fact is that JP Morgan in Asia is moving now over 50 billion Euros every month for French depositors withdrawing at record rates from French banks.

Virtiually every millionaire in France has already moved their deposits that were in french banks offshore, tantamount to a run on all the french banks.

This is the real thing sickcosy is desperate to cover up, as its his his own bunch of supportrs who put him there that are the ones doing the main offshoring of their wealth. And he cant afford to or has the ability to stop them.

He is stuffed.

Either he rapes the french people and steals their assets and taxes them to death, and he knows that kills him stone dead at the election, or he tries to steal german money with the connivance of the fat witch merkel.
She is up the creek without a paddle too so its now a question of who is going to get the best chance to get reelected, the witch or the dwarf.

If sickosy wins, then the witch is out on her ear, If the witch wins, then watch the french banks, because they will only have a few old coins and a pile of dusty deposit slips left over.

And the dwarf is toast.

I will bet on the witch on this one, and that means ultimately just one thing.

France tries to shore up its utterly bankrupt banks then becomes next in line even ahead of Italy for a bail out . Then the whole stinking ponzi sheme rapidly goes down the toilet.

It always was france that was the big bogeyman, in europe, and it was always the biggest parasite on the whole mess.

It has no chance whatsoever, because as every one knows, when the going gets tough the french always flee.
And never since the second world war have the french fled as they are doing now.
At least their money is.

stuckgear
9th Oct 2011, 08:04
Dexia...

from the FT..


Dexia poses setback for EBA stress tests - FT.com (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0f638a80-ef6a-11e0-bc88-00144feab49a.html#ixzz1aGlu51BV)


When regulators ran stress-tests on European banks in July (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5dcca268-b15f-11e0-9444-00144feab49a.html#axzz1ZdVg4VZl), Dexia (http://markets.ft.com/tearsheets/performance.asp?s=be:DEXB), the Franco-Belgian lender, not only passed the exercise, it emerged as one of the safest banks in Europe.

Out of 91 institutions scrutinised by the European Banking Authority, Dexia came joint 12th, with a forecast consolidated core tier one ratio – a key measure of financial strength – of 10.4 per cent in 2012.

It was more than double the 5 per cent mark required to pass the test, designed to replicate an “adverse scenario” including an extended shock to the financial system.
Yet less than three months after the results were published, Dexia is in the midst of a break-up (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1eabef1c-ee5e-11e0-a2ed-00144feab49a.html#axzz1ZdVg4VZl)which will likely include a “bad bank” structure with state guarantees from France and Belgium.

Dexia’s plight marks an earlier-than-expected setback for the EBA’s stress tests, a cornerstone of European banking supervision which is due to become an annual exercise. For the regulator, it is a nightmarish echo of a year ago, when the EBA’s predecessor body, Cebs, gave a ringing endorsement of Ireland’s banking system (http://www.ft.com/intl/indepth/ireland-fiscal-crisis)barely four months before it collapsed into the arms of the government.



and from SMH

Dexia's troubles highlight stress-test failings (http://www.smh.com.au/business/dexias-troubles-highlight-stresstest-failings-20111007-1ldwz.html)


ONCE upon a time, Dexia, the French-Belgian bank, was stable. By the measures global regulators deem important, its capital ratio stood at 11.4 per cent of risk-weighted assets.
That's well above the 10 per cent regulators plan to require of the world's largest banks under new international rules.
What a difference a summer makes. The Belgian and French governments now have a complicated mess on their hands. Dexia, which received a government bailout in 2008, saw its shares plummet after Moody's Investors Service put its main units on review for a downgrade on Monday

stuckgear
11th Oct 2011, 13:29
Reuters..



Oct 11 (Reuters) - A junior partner in Slovakia's ruling coalition said on Tuesday it would abstain in a vote to ratify a euro zone debt rescue plan, forcing the government to turn to the opposition to get the package through.
Tuesday's vote has been made into a vote of confidence in the government which will now fall short of votes to force the package through this time round.

The plan to give more powers to the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) may be approved, with the help of opposition votes, in a subsequent vote.

"Joining these two votes is a definitive waste of a chance to approve the euro rescue fund," Chairman Richard Sulik of the liberal Freedom and Solidarity Party (SaS) told reporters.


However, another article in Reuters today claiming:

“EU diplomats expressed confidence that the EFSF agreement approved by the 16 other euro zone countries would eventually be ratified, noting that the Slovak parliament can hold a second vote if ratification is rejected at the first attempt. However, it may bring down the government in Bratislava.”

The EU seems to have a problem with 'Democracy'. No matter if the electorate or the National Governments say "No" to the EU, the answer is always the same:

Wrong answer; So go away and vote again, and keep voting until you give the answer your EU Masters want.

Shack37
11th Oct 2011, 14:15
The EU seems to have a problem with 'Democracy'. No matter if the electorate or the National Governments say "No" to the EU, the answer is always the same:

Wrong answer; So go away and vote again, and keep voting until you give the answer your EU Masters want.



Absolutely nothing new there then. While this thread continues to consist mainly of "cut and paste" contributions from various "expert sources" and links to others which can be and are, read personally, is there a point?

stuckgear
11th Oct 2011, 14:32
is there a point to any thread then ? is there a point to getting up in the morning?

maybe just pull the euros over your head and expire quietly ?