Storm clouds on the horizon

[3pointlanding]

What's going on here.

World cargo shipments down 10%
747-800's being cancelled by Atlas and Cargolux
FedEx outlook lowered
Europe's collapsing economies
China's drop in manufacturing shipments
And a general lowering of the world economy

Not exactly a tsunami but a definite trend seems to be emerging. Just when the airlines are predicting a future pilot shortage and new equipment finally starting to arrive. It is going to be one heck of a ride again.:ugh:

[onetrack]

You're looking at GFC, Mark II, nothing surer. Ever heard of the "dead cat bounce"? You've watched the dead cat bounce in 2010. Tighten your seatbelts, we're in for a rough ride in 2012, as the EU continues it's irrecoverable flat spin; as the US struggles to get off the ground again, weighed down by a MTOW exceeded by a large margin, in the form of 10+% unemployment; and as China's unsustainable climb is clipped, by engines that are throttled back by reduced world demand, and no longer running at full power.
The politicians like to brag about how they have control. As they say, there are 3 types of people in the world - those who make things happen, those who watch things happen; and those who wondered what happened. The political leadership of most countries falls into the 2nd and 3rd groupings.

[despegue]

Wow. Hold your horses here...

the EU in general is not hurting economically. Belgium for example is seing a healthy increase in economy, lower unemployment rates ( it is becoming problematic as companies do not find suitable people) and lower than expected deficits.
Same for Germany, France, Austria, Scandinavia, etc.

I guess you guys watch too much FOX propaganda and focus on Greece, a country that should never have joined the Euro anyhow.

Doomday scenarios are only good for criminal speculants. these posts are just fueling them.:mad:

[dusk2dawn]

3pointlanding, my loadsheets contradicts your wx-rdr.

[GlueBall]

First class has few empty seats; business class even fewer. No shortage of pax who are forking over $7000 for sleeper seats. . . now, if that's any economic indicator, then doomsday hasn't arrived just yet. :ooh:

[lexxie747]

prozac consumption has slumped.....

[PrettyBoy]

The storm clouds might not be here yet but according to many they are gathering strength not too far away. Says who? Well, I don't know what FOX News are saying but if you read WSJ and FT it sure looks bleak. I guess we can agree to disagree on this point but I left the stock market a while back ago. Time will tell.

[Jetaim]

Take it as you want ..just a suggestion:

Buy green tech stocks..NOW !!

[Tank2Engine]

3pointlanding, my loadsheets contradicts your wx-rdr.
Full and heavy is no guarantee for profitability.

[3pointlanding]

Just to clear the record, I get my information from the Air Cargo World, Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, and the FedEx filing reports. They all add up to something I would rather not see. For all my friends still flying, I hope I am wrong.

[Intruder]

Yep! Better panic! FedEx is predicting a dime a share less profit this year (out of over $6/share)!

Cargolux hasn't cancelled anything yet, AFAIK. They refused delivery on 19 and 21 Sep of 2 airplanes, but they really have until the end of the month to take them. Sure sounds like posturing to me...

[Tank2Engine]

...but they really have until the end of the month to take them.Really?

Yep! Better panic!I don't think he's really panicking, but merely trying to assess what might be coming.

Plan & prepare for the worst, hope for the best. It has always worked well in aviation! :ok:

[GlueBall]

Don't Worry In Advance. :{

[PrettyBoy]

Intruder wrote:

"Yep! Better panic! FedEx is predicting a dime a share less profit this year (out of over $6/share)!"

I think some of us are talking about storm clouds on the horizon (i.e the future) not in the rear view mirror. However, pilots making comments on economic issues are perhaps worth the same as accountants discussing aviation related issues :ok:

One of these days I will learn how to quote properly!

[Intruder]

It's an example of current panic over those perceived storm clouds, even though they're really nothing more than a few showers...

[PrettyBoy]

I guess I'm a "glass half empty" kind of guy! Request 50 nm right of track to avoid...

[asmak]

Where did you get this info???

[555orange]

Dimwit:

Your load factor on any given day is not any measure of economical condition. If your booked pax are only 100, but you fly 747 on the route, it doesn't mean contagion. Rather an increase or decrease in RSM (revenue seat miles) is a reliable indication.

Case in point- don't take financial advise from a pilot.

[3pointlanding]

Just another article onthe storms clouds. This one from the EPOCH Times an Asian financial paper.

[/URL]

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/mambots/content/multithumb/thumbs/575.0.1.0.16777215.0.stories.large.2011.10.04.120773206.jpg (http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/component/option,com_banners/task,click/bid,7/) Cathay Pacific executives answer questions during a press conference regarding the airline's half-year results in Hong Kong, Aug. 10. Industrywide, air travel growth is slowing and air cargo volume is plummeting. (Laurent Fievet/AFP/Getty Images)




Business in the international aviation industry is showing a continual downward trend, with air travel growth slowing and freight activity plummeting due to the pullback in the global economy and consumer confidence.

“The industry has shifted gears downward,” said International Air Transport Association (IATA) chief executive Tony Tyler in a statement. “With business and consumer confidence continuing to slump there is not a lot of optimism for improved conditions anytime soon.”

According to the IATA, the air-freight market dropped by 3.8 percent in August compared to a year ago, as well as a drop of 1.8 percent compared with the prior month. The airline industry’s leading trade body announced that global air cargo has fallen by more than half. Concerns about U.S. and European consumer spending and the possibility of slipping back into recession continue, and the impact of the higher cost of exports from Asian manufacturers due to rising wages is exacerbating the problem.


http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/mambots/content/multithumb/thumbs/200.0.1.0.16777215.0.stories.large.2011.10.04.122090087.jpg (http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/images/stories/large/2011/10/04/122090087.jpg) A Cathay Pacific 747 passenger plane taxis upon landing at Hong Kong's international airport, Aug. 16. (Laurent Fievet/AFP/Getty Images)

Tyler, the former head of Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific, also said, "The cargo trends are certainly inauspicious and if cargo is again playing the role of leading indicator, then economies—and by extension airlines—are in for a difficult time."

Given that the Asian market accounts for more than 50 percent of the freight market, a fall in Asia of 5.4 percent in August was substantial for the industry.

"[Asia’s] cargo numbers are driven by consumption in Europe and North America, so if their numbers are weak it is because people in Europe and North America are not buying products."

Passenger statistics appear to be stronger than freight, but still show a decline. Growth in July was around 5 percent, whereas August traffic increased by only 4.5 percent year-over-year.

The membership of IATA consists of 230 airlines, such as British Airways, Virgin Atlantic, and American Airlines. Low budget European airlines such as Ryanair and easyJet are not included, so their contributed travel growth could increase the calculated profit in air travel.

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The IATA predicts projected airline industry net income to fall from an estimated $6.9 billion in 2011 to $4.9 billion in 2012.

“Airlines are bracing for tough times ahead,” Tyler said in the statement. “Economic uncertainty owing to the European sovereign debt crisis and the growing likelihood of a protracted period of slow growth in developed economies mean the industry will be even more focused on reducing costs.”



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