Aviation Boom Coming Up...???

[svm94]

I joined PPRune last year in hopes of meeting pilots who were living my dream. Unfortunately, after reading through a few posts I realized that things were not going so well. I realized that unless you were an IGRUAn or the son of a pilot, there is really no hope. So within a week of joining the site, my dream was killed. But just recently I came across an article that gave me some hope. Demand for airline pilots set to soar - USATODAY.com (http://travel.usatoday.com/flights/story/2011/06/Demand-for-airline-pilots-set-to-soar/48661596/1)

After reading words like "soar" and "shortage" I was suddenly the happiest 12th grader/wannabe pilot in the world. But coming back to reality...does anyone here think that this will actually happen or its all just stupid propaganda?

[martinque]

Hi SVM94,

My reply to this is, yes there are a shortage of pilots specially now that the regional flights' in boom. But before devouring yourself into being a pilot there are certain things you should ask yourself.
1. Do I really want to be a Pilot? (being a pilot is not that easy)
2. Is it really my passion to fly or just to earn big money? (I asked this myself, and I haven't earned anything, but still I became one)
3. Can I deal with the cost of Flight school?
and then ask yourself again
4. Is this what I really want?

I quit my job just to pursue the career in flying. Here comes the saying "the grass always seem greener on the other side" here I am now after 2years of studying desperately looking for work. But what's stopping me? Nothing, because this is what I really want and it has become a passion. Wether I take the General Aviation phase or being a Flight Instructor just to gain experience and hoping someday that I will be in the cockpit of one of those Airlines flying above me. Cheers to you! And hope that you can make your decision wisely!

[AmateurAviatorAlways]

"yeah its gonna be an up-surge for the deserving" :ok::ok:

Hey if you are only willing to fly just because you think you will get to enjoy a big moolah when you are a pilot, then please give a vehement thought to it...
If you really wanna be a pilot for it being the sole passion in your life, then go on..take wings..and live your dream!

I dont think being an IGRUAn matters..what matters is the knowledge and skills that you possess..yet of course it is the best flight school in India.. you must definitely go to IGRUA if you wish to be a pilot..

Listen to everyone, whether admiration or critisism, and decide what you "really" wanna do in your life..All the best :ok:

Fly Safe and Land Happy,
AAA

[B737NG]

As long as there are Pilots paying for flying as long as you can dream of making a living out of Aviation. Sorry but I just crossed recently a path of a few guy´s again they and theire families payed so much money to get the licence that now there is only one way for the next 10 years: Minimum wage.

In the past Airlines denied to serious foundation of building solid expirience for the next generation of Pilots. The shareholder value was valued higher then the People who work for them, all ranks. 10 Years ago the real income of most Pilots was higher then today. Until you come to a range that you are paid what you are worth it takes a while, mostly two decades in our days.

If you see other branches they developed faster the problem: The view of the people how they look at it. A Plumber get´s more money after 10 Years in the business then some Pilots after 10 Years of the first solo. People look at the Pilot with some respect and wondering "what he does to make the Airplane fly"? The Plumber covered with grease and dust but most people cannot imagine that the Plumber has more in the paycheck then some Pilots.

I know for a fact that last Winter some Pilots in the UK had a second Job to pay the bills.... My deepest respect to those who need to feed a family and have the support from the wifes and children for the passion of flying.

Flying became too cheap..... inside and outside. Glory is long time over. The direction remains the same in General descending. Read Letters from fellow Aviators who ask the Chairman of theire Airline why they are treated like a enemy and not as a asset. Accountants are running the show. I seen Pilots got punished because they took too often or too much Extra Fuel instead of educating them to give them the knowledge how to manage Fuel. Education is a cost factor, light Airplane saves expenses.

Years ago People who joined the Industry got selected carefully. Today a Flight Attendant is ready to go on line after 3 months. Years ago Passengers worn theire Sunday Suit to travel, today you must be lucky if they show up dressed at all.

Times where Airlines sustained on the Market for a long time and gave you a stable income and you could relay on a seniority where in the last century. Today you can look for the next season and then all of a sudden you get laid off or even worse, the company folds completly and you accumulated a debt on your side again. The pension fund is gone as well as it was attached to the company and not secured externaly.

So if you want to make your Parents proud and want to have a better life then some passionate Aviators who are good Pilots but bad earners look for some alternatives, just that at the end you can say: I compared and I choosen flying at the end because that was my only love.

Fly safe and land happy

NG

[captbisdak]

Being a 12th grader, you have time on your side. Get a pencil and paper and list the positives and negatives of the job and look back at the trend the past 10-15yrs just so you can paint a picture of the industry. I suggest in the next 12months, read everything you can about aviation and DO NOT FOCUS ON THE ROSY DETAILS ONLY, note the moans and groans of those already in the industry. It would be better if you spent a great time at this stage rather than facing heartaches later on, it is not an easy industry.

Before I took my first flying lessons many years ago, I was on the jumpseat of a jumbo (with one of the highest paying airlines back then) talking to the senior captain. I had just quit my job after saving up. Excited, I chatted with the crew the next 2 hrs regarding the upcoming flying. I was surprised with the feedback of the pilots, the captain always wanted the job I held at that point saying he joined the airforce because his dad. The FO was on his second divorce due to the job's lifestyle. Despite this, I went on with my flight training and found that aviation is indeed going downhill and being more cut throat at lower returns. If a cushy income is what you are after, go start a business. Another close friend of mine (after 26yrs flying with an airline), says it has become tedious because of the automation, rarely any hands on flying.

I am not discouraging you but the fact is (according to an old FAA report), less that 5% of PPL upstarts make it to an airline cockpit. Like I said, immerse yourself into the all that you can learn of the industry and hopefully in the end you will make a very informed decision. Hope this helps.

[niksmathew24]

"If we admit that human life can be ruled by reason, the possibility of life is destroyed." Leo Tolstoy, War And Peace

I'd suggest you replace life with becoming a pilot..

[risk]

Do I need to say more?

Boeing's Market Outlook 2011-2030 (http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/pdf/Boeing_Current_Market_Outlook_2011_to_2030.pdf)

[AmateurAviatorAlways]

nice one dude.. :ok::ok::ok:

[AmateurAviatorAlways]

now nobody needs say more..:D

[pilotbaba]

Pls read this......

Only thing, is it is written for USA pilots & there are some sections which may not apply & also there are other countries, which are growing in aviation.

But overall, a very good source of REALITY CHECK........

The Truth About the Profession - Home (http://thetruthabouttheprofession.weebly.com/)

Pilot shortage......

There will NEVER be a shortage of fresh CPL holders.....

There will always be a shortage of EXPERIENCED CAPTAINS.........

[CaptainProp]

It should be mandatory for ALL prospect pilots to read EVERYTHING on the website / link pilotbaba has provided, BEFORE you fork out all your family savings and sign the credit with the bank.

[Chocks Away]

Pilotbaba, there is a shortage and it's global, for CPL holders too... but obviously not where you are looking or want. Think about where communities NEED smaller aircraft to live/survive/travel longer distances roads can't go.

Good advice Yes, read all you can in order to make a informed decision (http://www.centreforaviation.com/analysis/pilots-and-engineers-in-high-demand-in-asia-to-meet-surging-traffic-and-fleet-growth-59243?utm_source=Aviation+Analyst&utm_campaign=5860ee3086-Aviation_Analyst_22_September_20119_22_2011&utm_medium=email)!

There is SO MUCH out there and it's so much easier to obtain, you just have to want it strong enough!

[mach5]

All the airlines will never give a chance to fresh pilots and after 5yrs , they will complain that they are short of experience pilots and they are not able too expand
:ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh:

[Capt.Morrgan]

Most people that post on this website are not airline pilots and wish they were. Don't become one of them.

I guess that makes you one of them now, doesn't it. :rolleyes:

[svm94]

"Do you REALLY want to be a pilot?"
That seems to be the recurring question here...
Well I've always dreamt of flying. I'm absolutely sure that I want to do this for the rest of my life...IF I am able to get a job(a good one). In India(as far as I know) all the employed pilots make a lot of money and the ones that don't have a job are miserable... The thing is that I love planes but not enough to risk my whole career in hopes that I'll get a job within 5 years of receiving my license. If I don't get a job...its over...horrible low wage job...horrible life. Thats what scares me the most. And besides if this drought continues, there is no way my parents will send me to a flight school instead of college. Why can't there be any assurance in this field:sad:? :ugh: :ugh:

Anyways thanks for all the replies...appreciate your advice :)

[estranged soul]

Dear Kids, read the following news articles circulated not so long back ... around 2006 ...

Reading crap like this, we now have more than 8000 unemployed CPL holders (and more to come !!) ...

Decide for yourself !

Pilots turn younger, pockets get deeper - Economic Times (http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2007-01-05/news/28484506_1_gandhi-rashtriya-uran-akademi-commercial-pilot-dgca)

High-flyer teens get the hot seat in cockpit - Economic Times (http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2007-01-06/news/28415872_1_gandhi-rashtriya-uran-akademi-pilots-air-india)

India's pilot shortage just got worse (http://www.rediff.com/money/2007/dec/18pilot.htm)

Pilot shortage to intensify (http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/pilot-shortage-to-intensify/306245/)


Also, note that you also routinely hear BS from this guy Kapil Kaul from some center for asia pacific aviation company.

Beware, all the frauds and scamsters are already cooking up new stories about the next major pilot shortage "crisis".

[mach5]

There wont be any shoratge of fresh pilots for the rest of Indian Aviation industry in future, all those estimates are worthless and created just to fool around with young chaps careers :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

[vdaff]

the numbers are already alarming at 10 000+ with 1000s+ still doing their training
Most of us will never make it as career pilots

[atpcliff]

In the summer of 2008, when the shortage of warm bodies available to be new hires was the worst in the US, some regional (low paying, small jets-mostly) airlines were hiring pilots WITHOUT a CPL. And, some were hiring pilots with a CPL, but who had Total Time less than 200 hours.

It is heading that way now, until 1 Aug, 2013, when ALL -121 (airline) pilots in the US will need a FULL ATP. So, new hire FOs, just like their captains, will need a Capt ATP. No one knows what will happen then, but the US airlines are basically doing nothing to prepare for that hiring scenario.

cliff
KGRB

[mach5]

dont worry dude , those guys will tackle that situation very easily and even if they require pilots they have a lot in their own country

[mach5]

Now this is to put an end of people who speak about shortage of pilots , of course the article is not mine just search through pprune you will get it

Personally I take these kinds of articles, hyping this so called “pilot shortage” with a grain of salt as I have seen stuff like this for many years. Back in the mid 90’s when I went to Embry-Riddle, their freshman recruiting pamphlets were filled with graphs and projections of how fast the aviation sector would grow and how many pilots the airlines would need. If you read some of this stuff, you would get the sense that all the airlines would need pilots so bad, they would send recruiters to ERAU’s graduation ceremony and “pluck” them as they walk off with a degree.

The reality is, there was never a real “pilot shortage”. It seems something always happened; 9/11, bankruptcies of the big carriers, rise in fuel costs, Lehman, AIG etc etc. I believe there are still a lot of challenges ahead which may not make this “pilot shortage” happen ever. For one, with the military (US) winding down coupled with more use of drone aircraft, they will need less pilots (in cockpit) and hence there will be larger pool of highly qualified pilots coming into the commercial market as the military downsizes. There will be lower growth in the economies of US, Europe and even Asia (to include China and India) in the coming years. IATA just predicted a 29% drop in revenue in global air travel in 2012 due to the global economic slow down. It seems the average consensus from economists believe the US and EU will not recover until 2015 at best. I also believe that in the distant future (maybe next 15-30 years) it maybe very likely we will see the cockpit crew reduced to one from the current two. This may sound outrageous but if you think about it, back just 10 years ago, there were quite a few planes flying around the world with a crew of three, 30 years ago, there were commercial airliners still flying with as many five (pilot, co-pilot, engineer, navigator and radio operator). Also, I am sure eventually the technology you find in military drones, will make its way into civil aircraft just like the many other technology before it (ie fly-by wire). It is amazing what automation can do at the expense of humans. Lastly, there are still pilots on furlough, unemployed pilots and tons of pilots who forked out a pretty penny so they can earn a CPL. Active pilots in US alone, 125,738 have CPL, 144,600 with ATP, I would think that is a large pool of candidates.

Now, this whole China and India and how they will need thousands of aircraft and tens of thousands of pilots a year just to fill those cockpit… The truth is, they can find the pilots they need through their military (like most countries in Asia) and they are sending their own nationals overseas for flight training and building their own flight schools/programs as well. What they will need for the time being are experienced pilots, particularly captains, people with tons of PIC time. I can assure you, once these countries fill their cockpits with the right experience and talent with their own nationals, they will no longer need any expat pilots and the expats will be the first to be let go if there are any downsizing. So basically, unless if you are a mainland Chinese or an Indian or a captain with tons of PIC times, you will not be able to enjoy the boom in their pilot hiring.

So with all this, my conclusion is, although a pilot shortage would be nice, don’t expect it to automatically happen. The airline is a very cyclical industry. In good times, the airlines make billions, but bad times they lose billions. I have a very good friend who worked as a vice president for various departments in Lockheed in past 30 years on some very neat projects (and some highly top secret and he would only give me bits and pieces of info as teaser). He said after the L-1011 flop, they did market analysis to determine if it was feasible to design and market more commercial aircraft. He ordered a study of the airline profitability through a span of a couple of decades and found that the net profit within the time frame for all the major airline was slightly negative. Another words, in simplistic terms, the study added up all the profits and minus all the losses of all major carriers within so many years and found they actually lost money overall, as opposed to many other industries (manufacturing, services, IT etc) that had an overall profit. Keep in mind too that this study was done around early 80’s when airlines had a better margin not the cut throat environment it is now. So even if you do see some signs of a pilot shortage, pilots being hired at a “record” pace, remember, the bad times will come for the airlines like it always has. It is a matter of when, and when it does, this “pilot shortage” will never matter. :D :D :D :D