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Loose rivets
16th Sep 2011, 20:48
Oh, F-off! If it falls in my garden, I'm selling it on e-Bay.

BBC News - Nasa satellite UARS nearing Earth 'could land anywhere' (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-14952001)


How many pieces weighing over a tonne? That's potentially a lot of thump.

Loose rivets
16th Sep 2011, 20:56
Ah . . . okay then. Of course I wouldn't dream of hanging on to it.:p

Loose rivets
16th Sep 2011, 20:58
How did that happen? I've traveled back in time.:confused:

OFSO
16th Sep 2011, 20:58
"Fallen out of orbit" ? What happened, BBC, did the string break or maybe the hook came out of the wall ? Pathetic !

Reentry predicts become more accurate the lower (and hence faster) it gets, so if *they* are still saying "it could land anywhere" either it's not THAT near to reentry or the Cousins ain't saying......

Loose rivets
16th Sep 2011, 20:58
What . . . WTF?

Loose rivets
16th Sep 2011, 20:59
Ooo . . . this is good. I'm just off to do yesterday's football pools.

Loose rivets
16th Sep 2011, 21:00
This should be post 8


Sorry con, I seem to be pushing your posts along.

con-pilot
16th Sep 2011, 21:01
If past examples can be used, if a piece of this satellite hit your house or anything else you own. You'll get a bundle of cash for it from NASA.

RegDep
16th Sep 2011, 21:18
How many pieces weighing over a tonne? That's potentially a lot of thump.

Original size 4,500 kg. Biggest single fragment estimated appr. 160 kg (partial screenshot from slide 8).

http://i1103.photobucket.com/albums/g472/RegDep/Bildschirmfoto2011-09-16um232542.png

Link http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/585584main_UARS_Status.pdf

tony draper
16th Sep 2011, 21:27
If any of it lands in the UK NASA better get to it swiftly because it will be on the scrap yard scales before it has even cooled off.
:uhoh:

vulcanised
16th Sep 2011, 21:36
Bet that's excluded from my insurance policy.

Spit161
16th Sep 2011, 21:41
Bet that's excluded from my insurance policy.

Indeed.
Not sure they'd believe it if you told them "A 1 tonne part of a satellite has just wrecked my conservatory!"

cheers,
Jake.

parabellum
16th Sep 2011, 22:55
If past examples can be used, if a piece of this satellite hit your house or anything else you own. You'll get a bundle of cash for it from NASA.


Now that could get the Dale Farm Travellers on the move, keep giving them 'advice' on where it is expected to fall, make up some attractive numbers about compensation and wave them good-bye!

ILS32
17th Sep 2011, 00:12
If you found a piece of this satellite would it have any value on Flog It? Surely more valuable than a Clarice Cliff coffee pot.There must be some collector out there who would want a memento.

onetrack
17th Sep 2011, 03:06
Shades of Skylab?? NASA was fined $400 by the Esperance Shire Council in July 1979 for littering... remember??!! No-one in W.A. has forgotten they never paid that fine, either!! It was left to a Radio Station DJ to raise the money! - almost 30 yrs later!!

I find the statement that... "The station (Skylab) did not burn up as fast as NASA expected, however. Due to a 4% calculation error, debris landed southeast of Perth, Western Australia, and was found between Esperance and Rawlinna, from 31° to 34°S and 122° to 126°E"... extremely disconcerting.

These are supposedly the same people who can reputedly land a spacecraft on a distant planet with unnerring accuracy?? Yet they make 4% miscalculations when figuring re-entry points upon our own crowded planet?? :rolleyes:

Obviously, NASA employees are divided into two distinct work groups. Those who passed their Maths exams with flying colours, and who are allowed to plot the landings on distant planets... and those who consistently failed their Maths exams, and who are then given the job of plotting re-entry points... :eek:

Skylab - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skylab)

ross_M
17th Sep 2011, 04:04
Original size 4,500 kg. Biggest single fragment estimated appr. 160 kg (partial screenshot from slide 8).


What's special abot the "HGA Gimbal"? It's the only part that burns up on reentry. For everything else the Initial Mass and impacting Mass are identical.

:confused:

Members of the public are not allowed to keep pieces of the satellite that may fall to Earth, or sell them on eBay, as they remain the property of the US government.

The arrogance of Uncle Sam never ceases to amaze. American laws don't apply outside America.

sitigeltfel
17th Sep 2011, 06:09
Now that could get the Dale Farm Travellers on the move

Especially if it lands on their heads :E

Flap 5
17th Sep 2011, 08:55
I like the bit where it says:

" ... is expected to crash somewhere on Earth"

Well, would you think?

OFSO
17th Sep 2011, 10:25
When the ESA launched sounding rockets from Kiruna the pieces would frequently come down near a Lap farmer's reindeer herd. Well, "near" isn't true: pieces would ALWAYS be found embedded in a dead reindeer giving rise to compensation claims....which were always paid.

The moral to this is if you have an ailing grandma in your family, keep her alive until next week. With a piece of NASA's finest embedded in her skull she might be worth quite a bit.

DX Wombat
17th Sep 2011, 10:34
I don't fancy having that SSPP landing in my garden. http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v604/DX_Wombat/icon_pale1.gif

BombayDuck
17th Sep 2011, 14:16
However, Nasa told reporters that nobody had ever been hurt by objects re-entering from space.

Wait for WW3 and they won't say that any more....

hellsbrink
17th Sep 2011, 19:39
Personally, I am looking forward to a lump of that thing going through my roof.


I live on the middle floor, so it'll take out my upstairs neighbours first. I can sell the bit of the satellite on EBay AND sell what is left of them upstairs as dog food AND claim a heck of a lot of money off mine and their house insurance.



Definitely a win-win situation as far as I'm concerned.

tony draper
17th Sep 2011, 20:28
"However, Nasa told reporters that nobody had ever been hurt by objects re-entering from space".
Oh yer, try sayingl that to a dinosaur.
:uhoh:

Katamarino
17th Sep 2011, 21:02
Oh yer, try saying that to a dinosaur.

Surely that wasn't re-entering ;)

racedo
17th Sep 2011, 21:32
Lands in the back garden then can have Elvis and Jimmy Hoffa come and collect it................otherwise its Ebay.

racedo
17th Sep 2011, 21:34
Oh, okay . . . but why has it got central American time?Atomic clock getting screwed up by some big object in Space.

I am wondering how posting a reply in advance of original post !!!!!!!!

Loose rivets
17th Sep 2011, 21:40
Testing, testing, where my post will pop up next.:8


Oh, okay . . . but why has it got central American time?

Yep, computer clock shows BST

Takan Inchovit
18th Sep 2011, 09:20
I'm picking PNG will collect the debris.

Lon More
18th Sep 2011, 12:08
Fecking 'Murricans, bad as pikeys, dumping their rubbish everywhere. Hope it lands on Washington, no intelligent life there.

radeng
18th Sep 2011, 12:12
I suppose the answer is to whop a summons on them and ask the court to declare a particular lien so that they have to pay before they can have it back.

Mr Optimistic
18th Sep 2011, 13:03
Have I missed something - is a big bit of space stuff due back ? I'll be annoyed it it hits the greenhouse.

SpringHeeledJack
18th Sep 2011, 13:54
Not half as annoyed as you'll be when you discover that they want it back :mad:


SHJ

racedo
18th Sep 2011, 22:21
Have I missed something - is a big bit of space stuff due back ? I'll be annoyed it it hits the greenhouse.

Pretty much a guarantee where it will hit now.

Mr Optimistic
20th Sep 2011, 21:09
Time to implement my fallback plan then. Drink lots and fallback. I'll miss that greenhouse.

Exascot
21st Sep 2011, 09:25
NASA satellite to fall to Earth on Friday: Start looking to the skies | Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2038719/NASA-satellite-fall-Earth-Friday-Start-looking-skies.html)

Excuse me but 1:3,200 chance of being hit. So what are the chances of it landing in your garden then? This can't be right. Any statisticians out there - never could stand the subject.

tony draper
21st Sep 2011, 09:56
What about this much vaunted anti missile shield? surely a few Patriots could turn the thing into tin confetti?
:rolleyes:

Keef
21st Sep 2011, 10:09
Just found a large stainless steel bolt on the back lawn. Who should I send it to?

G-CPTN
21st Sep 2011, 10:12
Was that a bolt out of the blue?

Takan Inchovit
21st Sep 2011, 10:27
Stainless? Could be a bolt out of the loo!

gas path
21st Sep 2011, 12:02
@ KEEF
I've got the nut and washers for that bolt. I knew after I left work yesterday I'd forgotten somat.:ooh::uhoh:

El Grifo
22nd Sep 2011, 11:02
Update #7
‎21 ‎September ‎2011, ‏‎23:35:54
As of 1:30 p.m. EDT Sept. 21, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 120 mi by 130 mi (190 km by 205 km). Re-entry is expected sometime during the afternoon of Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time. The satellite will not be passing over North America during that time period. It is still too early to predict the time and location of re-entry with any more certainty, but predictions will become more refined in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Well that's alright then :ugh:

tony draper
22nd Sep 2011, 11:04
What's Eastern daylight time in English money?:confused:

El Grifo
22nd Sep 2011, 11:21
Can do it in Euros, but not Half-Crowns. Sorry !

tony draper
22nd Sep 2011, 11:32
That's no good as I have never ever seen a Euro dunno whos head is on em,prolly a furriner anyway.
:uhoh:

ShyTorque
22nd Sep 2011, 11:33
Not over the USA?

I think I'll leave washing the car and mowing the lawns until this heap of scrap has landed. Knowing my luck....direct hit. :rolleyes:

green granite
22nd Sep 2011, 11:47
It's UTC - 4 hours Mr D, so it'll be evening over here, could be spectacular.

corsair
22nd Sep 2011, 12:05
Latest update hot of the presses:‎22 ‎September ‎2011, ‏‎12:44:51
As of 7 a.m. EDT Sept. 22, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 115 mi by 120 mi (185 km by 195 km). Re-entry is expected sometime during the afternoon of Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time. The satellite will not be passing over North America during that time period. It is still too early to predict the time and location of re-entry with any more certainty, but predictions will become more refined in the next 24 to 36 hours.

Just an update of yesterday's piece. Am I paranoid but it seems to me that if they're confident it won't be passing over North America. Then they must have a fair idea where it will actually fall. If it was over the sea or the arctic, I'm sure they would say that. Which by a process of elimination they think it will be overland and possibly a populated area. They have to be running a computer model.

If you run with that line of thought. You have to ask why we're not being told. The obvious answer being that they don't want to cause unneccessary panic in the target area, given the slim chance of it actually landing on someone's head.

I could be completely wrong but we'll soon know. Tomorrow afternoon the die will be cast.

DX Wombat
22nd Sep 2011, 12:10
I might just venture forth with the camera tomorrow evening.

Checkboard
22nd Sep 2011, 12:34
Then they must have a fair idea where it will actually fall.

I think the problem is that they know the orbit accurately, but the satellite is tumbling - and thus the drag it will have as in enters the upper atmosphere is variable enough to make the touchdown point "somewhere not over North America".

I might just venture forth with the camera tomorrow evening.
Take a good, solid, umbrella. :E

beaufort1
22nd Sep 2011, 12:34
Pictures of it taken by an amateur astronomer in Gaul.

BBC News - UARS satellite: New images of tumbling US spacecraft (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15009337)

corsair
22nd Sep 2011, 14:16
After a bit of digging, I came across this graphic depicting the orbit. Uh oh:uhoh: Look where all the yellow lines converge! The yellow lines are the possible paths after re-entry. It looks like that we in these islands are very much in the firing line. If nothing else we might get a nice light show.

http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.jpgFor clarity, ground track plot is limited to ± 6 hours

Legend
Yellow Icon - location of object at predicted reentry time
Orange Line - area of visibility at the predicted reentry time for a ground observer
Blue Line - ground track uncertainty prior to predicted reentry time (ticks at 5-minute intervals)
Yellow Line - ground track uncertainty after predicted reentry time (ticks at 5-minute intervals)
White Line - day/night divider at predicted reentry time (Sun location shown by White Icon)
Note: Possible reentry locations lie anywhere along the blue and yellow ground track.

lomapaseo
22nd Sep 2011, 14:36
With all he yellow line intersections making a track. what risk would there be if a supersonic plane managed to fly along the same track?

Considering that the dropped part trajectories are parabolic in nature and that the vehicle is moving much faster along the track. What altitude of the chase plane would be optimum to increase its chances of being struck.

Storminnorm
22nd Sep 2011, 14:45
It's my Birthday on Sunday too!!!
Don't want that thing as a present. Thank you!!!

CATIII-NDB
22nd Sep 2011, 15:10
You share a birthday with my younger sibling: She whitnessed a failed IBM intercept test from V'Burg a few years ago. - They say lightining does not strike twice but it has here in Cambs -

Watching and waiting - I bet it will be cloudy in the UK so no light show me thinks - I don't trust the Weather Bureau.

CAT III ( potential high value metal dealer).

Lonewolf_50
22nd Sep 2011, 15:20
corsair, your plot suggests to me that it will be first seen somewhere between Ecuador and Peru (if anyone is having a look up) and will then descend toward the equator and thence toward Europe, or maybe more toward the Middle East, depending upon time and angle of penetration.

Me? I hope it hits Mecca square on the black stone. :p That would really get the Imams in an uproar, would it not?

"Fiendish American plot do desecrate our holy rock ..." and all that. Good fun to be had for weeks afterwards as the great pissing and moaning game gets played out.

My assumption is that those tracks flow left to right across the page. Am I right about that?

(Of is it heading out to the Pacific Ocean, on the blue track, right to left?)

11Fan
22nd Sep 2011, 16:36
amateur astronomer in Gaul.

Methinks not enough credit given to that lad. That's some elaborate gear to get those shots. I fancy myself as an amateur astronomer but I am a novice compared to that fella.

MadsDad
22nd Sep 2011, 16:49
Well I suspect I have more chance of being hit by bits of the satellite than of winning the next lottery.

(Although if I were to buy a ticket for the next lottery, that might change the odds).

Nemrytter
22nd Sep 2011, 17:20
The rather excellent "heavensabove.com" home page has a current location plot of UARS where it usually has the ISS.
Not sure how much I'd trust them for a reentry. As far as I remember they use the NORAD elements, which are only updated every 6 hours. Good if you log in just after an update, not so good if you're 5 hours late ;)

G-CPTN
22nd Sep 2011, 17:24
Agreed - they showed the Shuttle still orbiting after it had already landed!

Wodrick
22nd Sep 2011, 17:28
I only put it up outof interest not gospel, and certainly not for any suggestion of re-entry prediction

Deleted

Nemrytter
22nd Sep 2011, 17:30
Yeah, sorry if you thought I was being critical - I simply wanted to point out that it might not be too useful for satellite spotting :)

corsair
22nd Sep 2011, 17:50
I notice the graphic is updating, when I posted the suggested re-entry point was somewhere North of Australia, now it's off the coast of South America. It'll be interesting to watch.

El Grifo
22nd Sep 2011, 18:00
Interesting. Not sure how a graphic which you posted is capable of updating, which it undoubtedly is ??

Mr Optimistic
22nd Sep 2011, 21:13
I am ready.

corsair
22nd Sep 2011, 22:24
I have a odd feeling about this. Tinfoil hat on, I think. I can't help wondering if NASA has already contacted certain governments with a warning.

Eventually one of these things will have to hit a populated area.

shalo
22nd Sep 2011, 23:17
Le satellite de la Nasa pourrait retomber sur l'Italie (http://www.maxisciences.com/espace/le-satellite-de-la-nasa-pourrait-retomber-sur-l-039-italie_art17175.html)

According to this (found on Yahoo.fr) its heading for Italy....... meaning that I might yet see the re-entry :ok:

jcjeant
23rd Sep 2011, 00:27
Hi,

Nasa has warned members of the public not to touch any pieces of the spacecraft which may survive the re-entry, urging them to contact local law enforcement authorities.What cynicism!
They does not care about the fate of humans endangering by the fall of those pieces
They do care only of their precious waste ...
Amazing US of A
BTW some countries laws apply for material found in private properties and also for littering waste illegaly
If USA want their waste .. they must made fall them on their land :ok:

Corrected:

Nasa has warned the spacecraft to not to touch any members of the public which may survive the medias hype .....

Will check Ebay Italy in a while :)

Checkboard
23rd Sep 2011, 01:24
How about - don't touch it, because the fuel remains it may contain is very chemically toxic, and some of the power cells may be radioactive. :hmm: :rolleyes:

11Fan
23rd Sep 2011, 01:40
http://i108.photobucket.com/albums/n32/Dr_Zoidberg71/thePoint.jpg

tony draper
23rd Sep 2011, 07:00
Surely any bits that fall on your land would be classed the same way as flotsam and jesam,if it lands on you it's yours and NASA can go forth and multiply itself.
:rolleyes:

Exascot
23rd Sep 2011, 08:20
Should at least get salvage rights.

El Grifo
23rd Sep 2011, 09:30
Corsair, is your graphic still updating or do you have an external link ?

Am I reading this right. Is this not crazy ? This of course is from NASA.

Fri, 23 Sep 2011 03:01:35 AM UTC+0100


As of 9:30 p.m. EDT Sept. 22, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 110 mi by 115 mi (175 km by 185 km). Re-entry is possible sometime during the afternoon or early evening of Sept. 23, Eastern Daylight Time. The satellite will not be passing over North America during that time period. It is still too early to predict the time and location of re-entry with any more certainty, but predictions will become more refined in the next 24 hours.



Like when there is a splash in the ocean or some smoking holes in the ground.

green granite
23rd Sep 2011, 10:57
UARS (http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html) re-entry info.

tony draper
23rd Sep 2011, 11:01
Buggah by my calculation in 45 minutes twill be right over me noggin.:uhoh:

MagnusP
23rd Sep 2011, 11:02
If they don't know when it's coming down, and they don't know where it's coming down, how are they going to know you kept a bit?

handsfree
23rd Sep 2011, 11:03
Over yer noggin is ok Mr D.
It's in yer noggin you want to avoid.

Storminnorm
23rd Sep 2011, 11:04
I'm off down to the cellar.

Let me know when it's landed.

Will NASA pay for any damage?
Chimney pots, TV aerials, etc?

I've put some corrugated iron sheets over the fish pond.

MagnusP
23rd Sep 2011, 11:06
Over the oggin is to preferred, Drapes.

green granite
23rd Sep 2011, 12:00
Looking at the current prediction, it will in fact pass over North America after re-entry and to the NE of the UK and then down to Egypt.

El Grifo
23rd Sep 2011, 14:22
After 9 successive updates from NASA starting on Sept 12 including today's earlier one stating catagorically that UARS would not be passing over North America at the time of re-entry, we now get No 10 :-

‎23 ‎September ‎2011, ‏‎15:45:08
As of 10:30 a.m. EDT on Sept. 23, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 100 miles by 105 miles (160 km by 170 km). Re-entry is expected late Friday, Sept. 23, or early Saturday, Sept. 24, Eastern Daylight Time. Solar activity is no longer the major factor in the satellite’s rate of descent. The satellite’s orientation or configuration apparently has changed, and that is now slowing its descent. There is a low probability any debris that survives re-entry will land in the United States, but the possibility cannot be discounted because of this changing rate of descent. It is still too early to predict the time and location of re-entry with any certainty, but predictions will become more refined in the next 12 to 18 hours

onetrack
23rd Sep 2011, 15:07
I reckon you'd make a motza out of any good pics of the bits burning up. Should be a good spectacular show of sparklers for those lucky enough to see it.

El Grifo
23rd Sep 2011, 15:19
Being vaguely handy with the old point and shoot, that fact had not escaped me.
For a while, amongst multiple choice options, our area was within snapping range :confused:

Oh hang on, its back to Africa again UARS (http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html)

mixture
23rd Sep 2011, 15:35
Oh hang on, its back to Africa again UARS

Well, as usual, the scientists are playing it safe, see the following note below the graphic...

Note: Possible reentry locations lie anywhere along the blue and yellow ground track.


And the blue and yellow tracks appear to conveniently cover most of the earth's surface. Surely they could be a bit more accurate than that !

Whilst I'm at it, given that they spend many millions on building these things and sending them into orbit, surely it wouldn't do anyone any harm to spend an extra few $$$ to ensure they get fitted with appropriate gadgets/substances to ensure they are correctly disposed of at end of life ?

El Grifo
23rd Sep 2011, 15:40
Like politicians who make dubious and often destructive decisions, the NASA guys who put the satellites up there, are generally well retired and out of it by the time the negative aspects of the exercise come back to haunt :ugh:

PukinDog
23rd Sep 2011, 15:59
mixture
... surely it wouldn't do anyone any harm to spend an extra few $$$ to ensure they get fitted with appropriate gadgets/substances to ensure they are correctly disposed of at end of life ?


I'd get on board with this idea if that gadget/substance is a 5-10 megaton warhead that will be detonated in low earth orbit above us for our entertaiment.


EL Grifo
Like politicians who make dubious and often destructive decisions, the NASA guys who put the satellites up there, are generally well retired and out of it by the time the negative aspects of the exercise come back to haunt


I've always found NASA rocket scientists to be some of the most short-sighted, self-absorbed, "me me me" people I've ever met. Are any of them not out to feather their own nest by voting themselves raises over in Houston?

And what I hate is they way they make me worry about pieces of a satellite falling on my head once every 30 years. Enough is enough!

11Fan
23rd Sep 2011, 16:14
Enough is enough!

Strip them of their Pocket Protectors !

PukinDog
23rd Sep 2011, 16:33
Strip them of their Pocket Protectors !

And stomp on their calculators that have buttons with squiggly lines and symbols on them that I don't understand!

ShyTorque
23rd Sep 2011, 16:43
Dale Farm, Essex......

While Tony Blair is visiting....

If only......

Nemrytter
23rd Sep 2011, 17:13
Are any of them not out to feather their own nest by voting themselves raises over in Houston?
Be glad you're not dealing with the ESA then, salaries at ESA are about twice those at NASA.:}

El Grifo
23rd Sep 2011, 17:23
Still nothing new information-wise.

NASA is fudging the issue and UARS (http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html) are backing Africa.

Anyone in Ppruneland have any better sources ??

El G.

maliyahsdad2
23rd Sep 2011, 17:26
Dale Farm, Essex......

While Tony Blair is visiting....

If only......

Carlsberg don't make falling space junk predictions, but if they did..........

tony draper
23rd Sep 2011, 17:42
According to the local news there is a even bigger German satellite due to re enter next month,well that's ok, my generation are used to German stuff falling on us.
:rolleyes:

PukinDog
23rd Sep 2011, 18:10
NASA is fudging the issue and UARS (http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html) are backing Africa.

NASA revising best estimates working with probabilities in a high-velocity, dynamic environment containing multiple unknowns = "fudging"

Those morons!


According to the local news there is a even bigger German satellite due to re enter next month,well that's ok, my generation are used to German stuff falling on us.



We let them have satellites?

El Grifo
23rd Sep 2011, 18:24
NASA revising best estimates working with probabilities in a high-velocity, dynamic environment containing multiple unknowns

Spill the beans NASA !

Last update 10.30 EDT. Predictions will become more refined in the next 12 to 18 hours !

Nice :ugh:

PukinDog
23rd Sep 2011, 18:30
Last update 10.30 EDT. Predictions will become more refined in the next 12 to 18 hours !

Nice

How well is your satellite shelter stocked? Should we have pizza sent? Pampers?

PukinDog
23rd Sep 2011, 18:50
As we near zero hour, I've quickly scribbled out an amendment to my will stating that NASA is free to use any and all data gathered from having white-hot fragments of re-entry scrap metal slice through my skull at 18,000 mph.

There, I've done my bit for science.

El Grifo
23rd Sep 2011, 18:53
Satellite Shelter my rot-box !

I am off down the marina for a cerveza and a chinky, followed by wine and prolly rum just to complete the nautical theme !

It is FRIDAY after all.

Yep, I am well scared :}

iws
23rd Sep 2011, 20:01
It is interesting that NASA TV seems to have replaced its normal programming with a continuous loop with announcements of the re-entry, and old tapes of the launch.

Does this mean they are worried?

The announcement suggests that the satellite is presenting a lower drag profile, either because bits have broken of or it is "shuttlecocking", so re-entry is likely delayed until very early Saturday morning UK time.

Should be well p**sed by that time...

Edited to add - Nasa TV seems to be back to normal programming now after showing the UARS loop several times.

con-pilot
23rd Sep 2011, 20:08
so re-entry is likely delayed until very early Saturday morning UK time


That would be during Happy Hour here, hmm, perhaps one should have cocktails on the patio this evening as to keep a wary eye out for the bits as they fall. :p

Low Flier
23rd Sep 2011, 21:02
** SPECIAL NOTICE ** EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY UNTIL 1109252359 UTC. AIRCRAFT ARE ADVISED THAT A POTENTIAL HAZARD MAY OCCUR DUE TO REENTRY OF SATELLITE UARS INTO THE EARTH apos;S ATMOSPHERE. FAA IS WORKING WITH THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE AND NASA TO ENSURE THE MOST CURRENT RE-ENTRY INFORMATION IS PROVIDED TO OPERATORS AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE. FURTHER NOTAMS WILL BE ISSUED IF SPECIFIC INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE INDICATING A UNITED STATES AIRSPACE
IMPACT. IN THE INTEREST OF FLIGHT SAFETY, IT IS CRITICAL THAT ALL
PILOTS/FLIGHT CREW MEMBERS REPORT ANY OBSERVED FALLING SPACE DEBRIS TO THE APPROPRIATE ATC FACILITY AND INCLUDE POSITION, ALTITUDE, TIME, AND DIRECTION OF DEBRIS OBSERVED. THE DOMESTIC EVENTS NETWORK /DEN/ TELEPHONE 202-493-5107, IS THE FAA COORDINATION FACILITY. WIE UNTIL UFN. CREATED: 23
SEP 18:33 2011
:cool:

Loose rivets
23rd Sep 2011, 21:04
JUST SEEN WHAT MUST HAVE BEEN A HUNK OF IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!


YES, I'M SHOUTING!

Calm down, Neddy.

21:55 BST Standing in the garden talking to my mate. Looking appx west from Walton on the Naze - Not far from the CLN VOR.

Blue white, intense meteor-like line in the sky. But, it wasn't quite like a meteor. Very fast, very sudden burn out.

From roughly NNE to WSW. Does that tally with the known angle.

There was an aircraft heading towards AMS that may well have got a front row view. Totally stunning.

TURIN
23rd Sep 2011, 21:07
Does this mean I can have a lie in tomorrow? :)

iws
23rd Sep 2011, 21:15
Loose Rivets:

Sorry, but unlikely. The direction of travel is wrong. The satellite is travelling in an easterly direction, as most do to use the Earth's rotation to save fuel.

More likely to be one of the 10,000 tons of natural rock that fall out of the sky every year!

Might also have been an Iridium flare.

shalo
23rd Sep 2011, 21:17
Unlikely... according to http://www.n2yo.com/ it was over Madagascar at the time you spotted something.
PS : good luck getting on the live site... seems to be overloaded at the mo...

Loose rivets
23rd Sep 2011, 21:21
Yeh, I added the question about the angle afterwards, but there was no sign of it going up. Very, very big meteor, and exceedingly white.

Mind you, I'll feel a total Wally, if the aforementioned aircraft had fired a flare.

I know, can't open the windows in these newfangled airplanes, but we used to have flares . . . and a big light with a Morse code trigger. :rolleyes:

Low Flier
23rd Sep 2011, 21:36
According to the electric calculating machine chez Chateau LF the re-entry time for UARS is likely to be sometime during the orbit of 05:23z tomorrow (Sat) morning.

Not possible to be more definite than an orbit or so, but there's a 50:50 chance that the burnup will be on the dark side of the planet.

AS a very rough rule of thumb, the plus/minus of the calculated ETA is about a fifth of the time between the time of calc and the calculated ETA, so my guesstimate which was based on an orbital observation made at around 17:20 has a +/- of more than a whole orbit.

The main variable is the solar radiation pressure. There will be a measurement of that available at around midnight UTC, so we'll have a better handle on the rate of decay after we get that data.

Low Flier
23rd Sep 2011, 21:40
LR's observation sounds like a sporadic meteor.

Certainly not UARS, as the satellite is still 'airborne' (OK OK, but you know what I mean!)

Iridium flares move quite slowly.

vulcanised
23rd Sep 2011, 21:43
Wonder how many are panicing at the sight of a chinese lantern tonight?

Mr Optimistic
23rd Sep 2011, 21:45
Things are getting quite tense here. Earlier false alarm turned out to be the wife having an argument with the garage door. Sky news think I'm a fool. Admit to feeling a tad embarrassed about it all.

ChristiaanJ
23rd Sep 2011, 21:47
Just checked my garden (less than 45°N ), but no luck.

CJ

El Grifo
23rd Sep 2011, 21:50
perhaps one should have cocktails on the patio this evening

Exactly what one was doing prior to popping in for an update !

When I say "cocktails" what I really mean is Arehucas and Cola :}

Eyes peeled (not)

Rwy in Sight
23rd Sep 2011, 23:17
I was out for a bier or two with a friend and I am at home now. I don't trust the roof much though. And I am off to the local airport shortly to pick up a friend.

I will keep an eye although it seems it is not coming.

Rwy in Sight

onetrack
24th Sep 2011, 01:51
It's interesting that the warning has gone out to A/C to watch out for falling chunks of satellite slicing through your fuselage when you've just settled back in your seat at cruising level and flicked on the A/P.
I would have thought the bookies would have been on a dead set certainty to make billions, taking bets on whether an aircraft in the air would be hit by debris.
I would have thought the chances of an A/C moving at 800kmh, being hit by re-entry debris, seems like a longer shot, than me winning Thursdays Powerball... which is an 18,000,000 to 1 chance, at last count. :{

PukinDog
24th Sep 2011, 01:53
If the latest on that website showing the re-entry estimate icon well out over an uninhabited area in the Pacific is correct, it'll be such a rip-off.

Exascot
24th Sep 2011, 05:48
Stayed in the office suite over night just to be sure. It is under two floors of hotel rooms full of Germans. They are more used to having these sort of things flung at them. They are sitting here in the restaurant having breakfast now so guess it didn't land here. Haven't checked our garden yet though.

green granite
24th Sep 2011, 07:10
So much for NASA's "It wont be over North America" UARS (http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html)

sitigeltfel
24th Sep 2011, 07:13
BBC are saying NASA reckons it has come down, but cannot be sure :confused:

Anyone hear a bump?

ORAC
24th Sep 2011, 07:15
CAPE CANAVERAL: A six-tonnes Nasa science satellite plunged through the atmosphere early on Saturday, breaking up and possibly scattering debris in Canada, NASA said.

There were reports on Tw***r of debris falling over Okotoks, a town south of Calgary in western Canada, most likely the remains of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite, or UARS, which had been in orbit for 20 years.....

wings folded
24th Sep 2011, 07:20
Can't say that I am reassured that Tweeter knows where it crashed but NASA doesn't.

Perhaps NASA should sell off all its kit and open a Tweeter account instead. Might save a few dollars.

ORAC
24th Sep 2011, 07:29
Second giant chunk of space junk heading for Earth (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/8785878/Second-giant-chunk-of-space-junk-heading-for-Earth.html)

A defunct German space telescope is set to collide with Earth less than five weeks after a satellite the size of a bus hits the planet.

The 2.4-ton Röntgensatellit, or ROSAT, has been spinning aimlessly through space for 12 years after it was switched off in 1999 after its guidance system broke. With its orbit bringing it inexorably closer to Earth, the authorities initially thought it would burn up entirely on re-entry. However, it is now believed that pieces of space junk weighing up to 400kg could smash into the planet’s surface as early as the end of October.........

ROSAT’s pieces are almost three times heavier than the biggest chunk of UARS, the US satellite which is expected to strike within the next 24 hours. Nasa experts have calculated that ROSAT is more than 50% more likely to cause death, injury or property damage on Earth than UARS, although the chance is still 2,000 to one......

The space telescope was built by the German firm DLR. A spokesman for the firm told New Scientist magazine that the telescope’s huge mirrors were the objects most likely to survive re-entry. Heiner Klinkrad, the head of the space debris office at the European Space Agency, also told the magazine: “ROSAT has a large mirror structure that survives high re-entry temperatures."

tony draper
24th Sep 2011, 07:30
According to the BBC News the buggas down,I repeat the BBC, so it must be true,
:)

onetrack
24th Sep 2011, 07:40
NASA has officially confirmed on Tw**ter, 18 minutes ago, that the UARS satellite has come down. No indication where, or if any large chunks actually reached the ground.

https://twitter.com/intent/user?screen_name=NASA&original_referer=http://inagist.com/VirtualAstro/117360516623646720/UARS_will_approach_from_the_West_North_West_and_will_be_low_ in_the_Northern_Sky.

PukinDog
24th Sep 2011, 08:55
Canada? What a rip-off. It may as well have gone down in the remotest corner of the South and vaporized Happy Feet, the other most over-hyped non-story we've been fed recently.

DX Wombat
24th Sep 2011, 09:34
:( I suppose that means I'm not going to make a fortune returning lost bits to NASA. :(

radeng
24th Sep 2011, 09:45
Does seem strange to me that something that sort of size can land in Canada and NORAD haven't got a clue where.

DX Wombat
24th Sep 2011, 09:52
Probably because NORAD has much more important matters (http://www.noradsanta.org/)to attend to than searching for bits of scrap metal that the neighbours threw over their fence and now want returning. ;)
Looks like the Germans are trying the "Anything you can do I can do better" thing. (http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,748107,00.html):(

tony draper
24th Sep 2011, 09:56
Probably like someone falling off the top of the Empire State Building, the bits are spread thin over a wide area.
:uhoh:
Hmmm,just out of general interest has anyone ever fallen from the top of the Empire State Building?

DX Wombat
24th Sep 2011, 10:08
I haven't.

Floppy Link
24th Sep 2011, 10:30
Almost crashed this morning on the way into work when the BBC newsreader on Radio 4 said:

"It is expected to come down on ground or in the sea" :ok:

Since NASA already said that chunks would reach the surface, what other option is there?

radeng
24th Sep 2011, 10:37
About as bad as Wombat's Speigel link..

'Will German Satellite Crash Into Earth?'

No, watch out Alpha Centauri.

Quizling
24th Sep 2011, 10:41
According to the BBC News the buggas down,I repeat the BBC, so it must be true,

So it came down in India then. Otherwise the BBC wouldn't have bothered mentioning it !

numbnut
24th Sep 2011, 11:02
Large convoy of unmarked white transit vans have just left Dale farm, do they know something we don't???? ;)

tony draper
24th Sep 2011, 11:29
Double decker bus just went up my street,big as a satellite it were.:rolleyes:

ShyTorque
24th Sep 2011, 11:35
I reckon those who need to know, know exactly where it's come down...... They are just keeping schtum about it and hoping no-one complains.

After all, they reckoned they had the ability to track MIRVs (multi-headed nuclear missiles) from "the other side" forty years ago.

visibility3miles
24th Sep 2011, 12:09
Is it there yet?
Is it there yet?
Is it there yet?

Is it where yet?
Is it where yet?
Is it where yet?

Sorry, thinking of long car rides with young children.

So much for selling it on EBought unless Somali pirates snagged a few bits.

El Grifo
24th Sep 2011, 12:26
My thoughts entirely Shyt ! It is inconceivable that the have no abilty to track.
Who knows what they are up to !!!

DX Wombat
24th Sep 2011, 12:59
Most likely hoping to collect up as many bits as they can before the souvenir hunters get to them. ;)

westhawk
24th Sep 2011, 15:59
It is inconceivable that the have no abilty to track.

Agreed! With all the "assets" orbiting the Earth, you just KNOW the thing was tracked all the way down.

ZOOKER
24th Sep 2011, 16:15
quite appropriate it was called UARS really.
'YOU ARSE' seems an apt critisism of the numpty tasked with mapping it's re-entry trajectory.

ChristiaanJ
24th Sep 2011, 16:21
Agreed! With all the "assets" orbiting the Earth, you just KNOW the thing was tracked all the way down.Hum....
If the re-entry "footprint" as published was anywhere over the Central or South Pacific, it would have been below the radar/radio horizon of any tracking stations in the area.
The only indication of "UARS Down" would be that it didn't turn up for its next orbit.

Does anybody here know if it was still being tracked by any kind of beacon, or whether it was all "skin paint" by radar and visuals?

CJ

Low Flier
24th Sep 2011, 18:04
Anyone found it yet?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgTyiaDmytw

Um... lifting...
24th Sep 2011, 19:13
One has heard that Mr. Draper has calculated the trajectory of the satellite into his shed, removing the roof in anticipation.

11Fan
24th Sep 2011, 19:18
Excellent Low Flier. :D

lomapaseo
25th Sep 2011, 00:19
anything on E-bay yet?

Mr Optimistic
25th Sep 2011, 12:29
Did it come down in the East Pacific or Canada ? Don't see how you can do both without straddling the NW USA. The BBC have gone indifferent now there is no chance of a calamity. Not all is lost though; once bitten twice shy. I believe there is another satellite due back soon so I will take the opportunity to move the greenhouse further away from where I park my car.

tony draper
25th Sep 2011, 12:44
Apparently the German Satellite has a large British telescope aboard,so you int going to know who to sue if part of it squishes your car or your house or indeed you
:uhoh:

surely not
25th Sep 2011, 13:50
Well obviously the bit on top of your car/house that is lying on the beach towel will be the German piece of the satellite.

Low Flier
25th Sep 2011, 15:02
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02008/240911-MATT-web_2008027a.jpg

G-CPTN
28th Sep 2011, 00:24
Tracking stations will typically witness the uncontrolled return of at least one piece of space debris every day; and on average, one intact defunct spacecraft or old rocket body will come back into the atmosphere every week.

Rollingthunder
30th Sep 2011, 21:43
The world was gripped by the Nasa UARS satellite that fell back to Earth last Saturday – and now there’s another that’s plummeting back from orbit.

In late October or early November a Germany astronomy satellite – called ROSAT- will plunge uncontrolled back to Earth.

While slightly smaller than UARS, the German satellite is expected to have more pieces survive re-entry. The German space agency estimated that it has a 1-in-2000 chance of hitting someone - higher than the 1-in-3,200 odds NASA gave for UARS.

Heavens above: An artist's impression of the ROSAT satellite, which is expected to plunge to Earth in the near future
The German ROSAT satellite was launched in 1990, 'died' in 1998 and weighs two and a half tonnes.

The German space agency estimates that 30 pieces weighing less than two tons will survive re-entry. Debris may include sharp mirror shards.

The German space agency puts the odds of somebody somewhere on Earth being hurt by its satellite at 1-in-2,000 — a slightly higher level of risk than was calculated for the Nasa satellite.

Again, it seems certain that information on when - or where - the satellite might land will be scant.

11Fan
30th Sep 2011, 23:42
Funny hearing about the German Satelite after reading jcjeant's (from Germany) rant on post 67.

Ah, a snippet for your reading pleasure.

They does not care about the fate of humans endangering by the fall of those pieces
They do care only of their precious waste ...
Amazing US of A
BTW some countries laws apply for material found in private properties and also for littering waste illegaly
If USA want their waste .. they must made fall them on their land

visibility3miles
1st Oct 2011, 03:07
China blew one of their satellites to bits a while back, so that'll keep lighting up the skies as tiny shooting stars for a while, along with any other satellite it interferes with in its role of (unnecessary) space junk.

At least NASA tells you what's going on.

There are astronomy websites that track satellites in orbit, even "stealth" ones, so they don't confound observations, but I don't have the links.

Low Flier
22nd Oct 2011, 14:40
SPECIAL NOTICE .. ..........EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY UNTIL 1110252359 UTC. AIRCRAFT ARE ADVISED THAT A POTENTIAL HAZARD MAY OCCUR DUE TO REENTRY OF THE SATELLITE ROSAT INTO THE EARTH'S ATMOSPHERE. THE FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION (FAA) IS WORKING WITH THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE (DOD) AND THE NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION (NASA) TO ENSURE THAT THE MOST CURRENT RE-ENTRY INFORMATION IS PROVIDED TO OPERATORS AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE. FURTHER NOTAMS WILL BE ISSUED IF SPECIFIC INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE INDICATING A UNITED STATES (US) AIRSPACE IMPACT. IN THE INTEREST OF FLIGHT SAFETY, IT IS CRITICAL THAT ALL PILOTS/FLIGHT CREW MEMBERS REPORT ANY OBSERVED FALLING SPACE DEBRIS TO THE APPROPRIATE ATC FACILITY AND INCLUDE POSITION, ALTITUDE, TIME, AND DIRECTION OF DEBRIS OBSERVED. THE DOMESTIC EVENTS NETWORK /DEN/ TELEPHONE 202-493-5107, IS THE FAA COORDINATION FACILITY.

Currently Rosat is expected to re-enter some time around 05:00z on the morning of the 23rd.

It's too soon to predict exactly which orbit will be the final one, let alone predict where it will come down during that orbit.

mustpost
22nd Oct 2011, 14:50
Hmm, BBC reports


What makes the redundant German craft's return interesting is that much more debris this time is likely to survive all the way to the Earth's surface.
Experts calculate that perhaps as much as 1.6 tonnes of wreckage - more than half the spacecraft's launch mass - could ride out the destructive forces of re-entry and hit the planet.

Mr Optimistic
22nd Oct 2011, 15:22
It's a disgrace...where's the BBC ?

OFSO
22nd Oct 2011, 16:04
redundant German craft's return interesting is that much more debris this time is likely to survive all the way to the Earth's surface.

But of course it is ! Ve are about ze finest vorkmanship of die Vaterland talking, Nein ? None of zhat veeble tinfoil NASA strukture hier. Zink of a Grösser Mercedes fallink to earth und you the idea vill be getting. For you (insert name of destination country hier) ze var is over !

Low Flier
22nd Oct 2011, 16:22
So, it's Poland then.

ChristiaanJ
22nd Oct 2011, 16:38
Over-engineered and over-weight, just like the Merc....

CJ