The Future of Aviation?

[Kite23]

I would like to ask members for their opinion of how aviation will develop over the next century?

It seems to me, and I am no expert, that both racing down a runway to create enough lift for take-off and landing at such high speeds is a dangerous exercise and if VTOL could be incorporated into heavy aircraft then it would be significently safer. Not only that but the vast spaces taken up by runways would be released which would be good for the environment.

I fully accept that at present there is no answer to the power to weight ratio of lifting huge heavy aircraft into the sky but when you consider how much progress has been made in aviation since inception it surely is not beyond reason to imagine that one day the principle will be resolved?

Your thoughts please?

[Rollingthunder]

There will be continual bickering over whether XL aircraft flying point to point, long-range or Medium range dreamliner types doing intermediate stops will be the way to go. Boeing will throw in updated B744s once in a while. There will be no supersonic or hypersonic aircraft. DC-3's will still be flying.

[barit1]

One answer may be found in the ill-fated, eventually abandoned LearFan (http://www.aviastar.org/air/usa/learavia_learfan.php). Brilliant concept - twin engines driving a single pusher prop - not unlike a multi-engine helo in this respect.

But the FAA COULD NOT BRING THEMSELVES TO CERTIFY IT as a twin because of the common gearbox and prop. Thus it died on the vine - and probably brought about its inventor's death as well.

Hidebound, unimaginative, CYA regulators and regulations have and always will determine aviation's future.

[Albert Driver]

Aviation progress is driven, not by airframes, but by engines.

It will not change fundamentally until the next radically new propulsion system comes along. There are ideas out there but whether any of them will ever translate into viable designs is impossible to predict.

The fact is the jet engine is incredibly efficient and reliable compared to anything which went before and it represents a very high standard for any new propulsion system to match.

I personally think it could be many decades before it is replaced. While it remains, commercial aviation will continue much as it is now (larger, more efficient, more automated, but recognisably late twentieth century) , and VTOL on everyday passenger flights will remain a complete non-starter on economic grounds.
Basic physics, unfortunately.

[stepwilk]

the FAA COULD NOT BRING THEMSELVES TO CERTIFY IT as a twin because of the common gearbox and prop.

Smart of them.

[barit1]

But how then can they certify a twin-engine helo? :rolleyes: I daresay a gearbox failure might be a flight safety item...