AJ gets the boot end year/JQ to be floated?

[qantel]

HUH?

Keep hearing word on the street is:

AJ to get the boot end of year
JQ to be floated

Is it wishful thinking or more serious sinister stuff?
:eek:

[73to91]

And QF will hold what % of that company?

What direction will the board want the new CEO to head in?

Is Fyfe free?

[QFinsider]

It is clear that the script to deliver 'de-unionise' the workforce via industrial leverage has had limited success. The problem now faced by the board is that the business cycle has moved on. No longer is there a large yield premium in aviation. Indeed demand remains very elastic. To that end the "leisure market" is the most elastic and delivers very little yield. It relies on volume, something that is flat at present.

When one looks at the path DJ have embarked on, it is the exact opposite to the direction Qantas continue to take. This path directed by Oldmeadow and BCG is delivering nothing of value to the shareholder. It does however richly rewards the executives and the consultants...A classic agency problem.

Where to from here? It will take a big board to change direction, however the poor performanc eof J* is clear cause for concern. THe ASK growth now highlights just how poorly it performs, particular interntionally. Poor little Allan is a a method actor with limited scope. He merely follows the script delivered by the industrial barons including Dixon and Clifford.

Unfortunately in the end it will cost him his job. Buchanan will turn very quickly on his little emperor, but ultimately he only knows the same script. The conundrum is that Clifford nearly killed Rio Tinto before parachuting out 18 months earlier, leaving the mess for his successor to clean up. Time will tell, however the investors are asking questions because ultimately the creatively accounted J* only will remain opaque for so long..

Interestingly enough the talk of mergers and acquistions from most analysts has to date focused on premium or so called legacy airlines..It would appear that a spun off J* would fit nicely into the plans of a Tiger or even an Air Asia. Given the incredible profit result Cathay is likely to deliver, it would appear that the premium airline is better suited to return it's cost of capital than an underperforming leisure carrier with dubious stand alone viability..

[QAN_Shareholder]

QFinsider,

No longer is there a large yield premium in aviation

it would appear that the premium airline is better suited to return it's cost of capital

These two comments look contradictory to me, can you explain why they aren't?

When one looks at the path DJ have embarked on, it is the exact opposite to the direction Qantas continue to take.

DJ have no choice, they aren't competitive at the low end, and their share price isn't exactly rewarding them for it.

however the poor performanc eof J* is clear cause for concern

Surely the poor performance of QF international is more of a cause for concern given that it has far more capital invested and has continually disappointed.

The conundrum is that Clifford nearly killed Rio Tinto before parachuting out 18 months earlier

I think it was the GFC that nearly killed Rio, If Clifford knew this was coming he must be pretty smart.

Given the incredible profit result Cathay is likely to deliver, it would appear that the premium airline is better suited to return it's cost of capital

If Cathay are the role model then wouldn't that mean introducing B scales for pilots? Also why just focus on Cathay, looking at the biggest LCCs globally, Southwest, RyanAir, Easyjet, AirAsia they appear to be doing somewhat better than their premium peers.

[hotnhigh]

And the qantas share price reflects a dream corporate strategy?:ugh:
One can only hope that the thread title becomes reality. Unfortunately and sadly, this wont be the case unless there is a dramatic change of heart from the big shareholders.

Shall leave the last word from Alan, from four corners the other night.....
ALAN JOYCE: Our investor relations people who were with me at the time said our share price is collapsing. We then did a ring around to find out why. Some of the shareholders had picked up from social media, and that was being reported, that a Qantas aircraft had crashed in Indonesia.

So we can gleen from that, that Alan has his finger on the pulse when it comes to the minute by minute movement of the share price. Says it all really.:suspect:

[gordonfvckingramsay]

This just in from Reuters;

SYDNEY, March 30 (Reuters) - Australia's Qantas Airways <QAN.AX> plans to axe capacity and management jobs and retire some aircraft early under cost-cutting measures aimed at offsetting soaring fuel prices and the impact of natural disasters in Japan, New Zealand and Australia.
Qantas shares rose almost 2 percent after the airline announced a string of cost cuts, including the suspension of some services from Australia to Japan and New Zealand.
Chief executive Alan Joyce said he was reviewing the airline's manpower costs with the aim of cutting management headcount and annual and long-service leave balances.
"We want to limit redundancies wherever possible and will be using a range of initiatives to manage the reduction in capacity including annual and long service leave. At this stage only management positions will be made redundant," Joyce said in a statement.
Qantas shares were trading 1.9 percent firmer at A$2.19 shortly after the market opened. Some investors had been expecting an earnings downgrade after rival Virgin Blue <VBA.AX> cut its forecasts a week earlier.
Qantas did not give full-year earnings guidance but said a string of recent natural disasters would impact its underlying pretax earnings by about A$140 million ($144 million)in the second-half of the financial year ending June 30, 2011.
This included a A$45 million impact from the Japan earthquake and tsunami, A$60 million from flooding in Australia's Queensland state, A$20 million from cyclones in Queensland and A$15 million from last month's earthquake in New Zealand.
Qantas said it planned to cut domestic capacity growth in the second-half of the current financial year from 14 percent to 8 percent and international capacity growth from 10 percent to 7 percent.
Qantas and other airlines globally have been raising fares and introducing fuel surcharges to try and offset rising oil prices.

.......and the investors love it! :uhoh:

[illusion]

"Nothing is so good for the moral of the troops as to occasionally see a dead general".




Field Marshall Slim

[gobbledock]

Investors are getting what they paid for....Put your money into a high risk/low return portrfolio and this is what you get. QF has minimal fat left to trim these days. The greatest two expenses are an incompetent senior executive gravy train and fuel.

To QAN Shareholder to you I say 'stiff sh*t'. No matter how much you try to pump up the airline with your fantasy style comments and wishful thinking the facts are larger than life - middle east crises (in fact a Dictator farting into the air will cause mass panic with the oil cartels which conveniently then jack up prices),greedy execs, natural disasters, economic downturns plus a deteriorating product in all areas from service to aircraft will ensure the precious share price will never return big money whether you put your cash in to either short term or long term portfolio's. These issues will ALWAYS exist in aviation.

It is very sad but very true that QF is on a path to nowhere as far as a 'decent investment opportunity' is concerned. Who cares if Allan is around at the years end or not - the airline is a lemon. Virgin is a lemon also, Borghetti the master illusionist, the hope of all hope, the man to create a Prohart work of art out of the dregs that Godfrey left behind has also managed to achieve no stem to the loss making. Why ? Because airlines rarely make money. As for Jitstar ? Please, they will be another dead end investment. Yes they will float, Boston Bruce and an assortment of leaches will make millions for themselves, move on when the smoke settles and leave behind nothing less than a wothless shell, yet the investor will be dazzled by mathematical wizardry, glossy brochures and top investment ratings by the very accounting firms who helped to bring you the GFC and world bankrupcy, but go for it and waste your precious pennies on making a group of executives even richer..........
Enjoy

[33 Disengage]

Surely the poor performance of QF international is more of a cause for concern given that it has far more capital invested and has continually disappointed.I know you are just parroting Alan's message but look at the facts.

1) For Feb QF International increased seat revenue %, Jet* International -5%
2) Jet* will continue to loose money in an expensive fuel environment
3) Jet* continues to use QF capital equipment / facilities for no / little cost

as for another of your statements

I think it was the GFC that nearly killed RioI would suggest it was RIO's company plan , and hence, it's investment decisions, signed off by Clifford, prior to the GFC that nearly killed RIO. Similarly, Qantas' company plan and it's investment decisions, signed off by Clifford, are leading Qantas down a very dangerous path.

[QAN_Shareholder]

gobbledock,

It is very sad but very true that QF is on a path to nowhere as far as a 'decent investment opportunity' is concerned.

So maybe we agree on one thing, cut the size of the international network since it is the least decent part of a company you claim is not a 'decent investment opportunity'?


33,

I know you are just parroting Alan's message but look at the facts.

1) For Feb QF International increased seat revenue %, Jet* International -5%
2) Jet* will continue to loose money in an expensive fuel environment
3) Jet* continues to use QF capital equipment / facilities for no / little cost


So your point is that QF international is better than J* international? Possibly but isn't that irrelevant? The issue for me is whether many of the QF international routes can ever make a decent return.

[The Green Goblin]

What Joyce and co fail to realize when they crunch their outsourcing mathematics and foreign basing statistics, is that the passengers don't want/like it!

Passengers can overlook an 80s interior, old IFE systems and faded paint if the service is good, and the staff are Australian and happy. What they can't overlook is foreign staff, and bastardization of an icon by mis-management.

Nothing used to anger me more than JQ62/63 to Melbourne/Darwin. :ugh: I was forced to fly on it as Qantas did not fly DRW to MEL, and my duty travel was stretched with an Adelaide/Brisbane or Sydney stopover.

You could barely understand the PA briefings, the emergency exit safety briefings were a garbled mess, and the cabin crew spent most of their time hiding behind a curtain. The only saving grace was the Aussie voice behind the reinforced door on the PA after transition.

If this style of crew is presented on Qantas services, then the Australian public will vote with their feet. As I said, the only reason why many passengers still persist with Qantas is the staff. Remove that from the equation and they may as well fly with Singapore Airlines.

[73to91]

The issue for me is whether many of the QF international routes can ever make a decent return.


It has been said many a time on this site, give them the right equipment and they can. Sounds like 'build it and they will come'.

e.g.
The right equipment to HNL,
Only QF to HNL,
Return Intn'l destinations to QF, e.g. SYD/MEL/PER - DPS and AUS - Japan.

[The Bunglerat]

Return Intn'l destinations to QF, e.g. SYD/MEL/PER - DPS

Judging by the "quality" of the punters I see travelling to/from DPS on both JQ & DJ, I would suggest a QF premium service would be wasted on them.

"Anuvver bundy-&-coke, thanks 'luv. Waddya think of my Bintang singlet, huh? Beewdy! Buuuurrrpp!!!" :E

[Mstr Caution]

Bunglerat

My cashed up & conservative in-laws go to Bali twice a year on Garuda, they only ever flew on Ansett or Qantas previously.

Like 73 to 91 said, put QF mainline back to Bali & they'll be back on board.

[33 Disengage]

The issue for me is whether many of the QF international routes can ever make a decent return.Two schools of thought:-

1) You will never make "a decent return" from aviation. Sell your shares now and buy RIO now that Clifford has left.
2) Making money from aviation (poor returns, but still making money) depends on your network. To get people flying on your high yield sectors you need to feed them from other sectors that might only be breaking even.

P.S. The public will stop travelling with you when you sell them a QF ticket and put them on a JQ service.

[1a sound asleep]

Fact is they have too much capacity and insufficient demand. They expanded before the GFC when things were effectively a boom time (DJ, QF and JQ all sucked in) and now they are wondering why they have to see MEL-AKL for $99.

Now they are crying poor with higher fuel costs, reduced demand. They still have the excess fleet/capacity costing them huge losses.

Bring back partial regulation of the industry.... you may laugh

[airtags]

JQ must remain "a majority owned subsidiary" otherwise they cannot use the QF flexed route approvals. - that us they would need to apply for and in some cases compete for capacity approvals.

Wishful thinking at the start of the thread

AT

[standard unit]

metrosmoker, [who has deleted his post :hmm:]

allow me to provide you with some concrete and accurate information about Qantas's recent passenger satisfaction levels.

Management have advised Longhaul cabin crew that passenger satisfaction with the service CC provide on our aircraft is at the highest levels the airline has ever measured, in it's history.

Sorry to rain on your parade...........

Oh BTW a very recent LA direct 744 flight had passengers commenting to me at the door as they left in this fashion.

SYD-LAX- " Qantas is the best airline in the world" repeated three time to me in case I didn't get it.

LAX-SYD- " I just want to say that I was an absolute bitch to the crew down the back and they have been absolutely outstanding. I have flown 9 sectors in 20 days and I have a bad back and they did everything they could to assist me. I only fly airlines other than Qantas when I have no alternative and this crew has been outstanding"

These comments are not unusual and the very senior crew that I had the pleasure of working with on this trip were quite frankly, as good as it gets.

[vigi-one]

Was travelling back from Sydney recently and sat next to a retired Medical Specialist who had just returned from oversees. The first comments made to me was about the state of the aircraft and how old it was (767). The good doctor had just returned from overseas with Singapore and raved about the condition of their aircraft and what a great trip she had had and continued to bag QANTAS management for allowing the airline to decline to where it had.

We asked where she lived she explained on the Gold Coast and she and plenty others couldnt wait until Virgin starts operating business class into the Gold Coast when they would leave QANTAS "in droves".

Towrads the end of the flight she asked me what i did for a living. I dont know who was more embarrassed.

[astroboy55]

Bring back partial regulation of the industry....

I agree completely. People need to be educated!!!:ugh:

[Flogged Horse]

I agree that something has to be done re regulation but not with this bucket of slop Gillard government having anything to do with it.

I have never really followed the QF fleet thing closely but can someone remind why QF never went down the 777 route? Seems all the big boys that want to make money have them with orders spilling out of Boeing's door. I don't wish to start a rumble about it just looking for facts as to why the 'tripler' was turned down.

Cheers,

FH

[runesta]

everyone knows the 767s are old... what can you do when the 787 is late by 4 years? :ugh:

still think Joyce is better than Dixon. Dixon's segmentation idea was like a cancer within Qantas which created unnecessary duplication and top-heavy management structures.

The fact of the matter is airline shares are worthless.
"I've never invested in any airline. I'm an airline manager. I don't invest in airlines. And I always said to the employees of American, 'This is not an appropriate investment. It's a great place to work and it's a great company that does important work. But airlines are not an investment.'"
- Robert Crandall, former president and chairman of American Airlines

[1a sound asleep]

have never really followed the QF fleet thing closely but can someone remind why QF never went down the 777 route?

When they looked at the 777 at the time they ordered the 747ER the 777 was actually more expensive. On the surface buying 777 would have been a huge financial cost (in the short term) with parts, training, sim etc. They never looked at long term fuel costs or the advantages of moving away from the 747 addiction.

[33 Disengage]

have never really followed the QF fleet thing closely but can someone remind why QF never went down the 777 route? Just one of the reasons GD will go down in history as the worst CEO. Mind you, AJ looks like he might want to try and steal the title.

[TIMA9X]

GD will go down in history as the worst CEO. Mind you, AJ looks like he might want to try and steal the title. It's a toss up!

-_4aYW9VFFU


dedicated to all front line staff on here at DG & P, many thanks. Trust it will get a few laughs! :):ok:

[The Kelpie]

PMSL

Well Done Tima9x

The Kelpie

[moa999]

re QF and the 777...
just look at how successful the 777 was on the jnb route for Virgin.
australia's geographic position is not great for the tripler and you can't just buy it for a single route and introduce yet another type

[Keg]

The 777 would go gangbusters on SYD-SFO, BNE-SFO, somewhere-SIN-FRA, somewhere-SIN-CDG, somewhere- SIN/BKK- Vienna, Amsterdam, etc. There are plenty of routes for it, Qantas just doesn't fly to any of them. The reason we don't fly to any of them is because we don't have 777s. :ugh:

As to the original post, I don't believe AJ will be gone. I reckon he's performing precisely as authorised by the Chairman and the board. The problems that Qantas have start higher than the CEO and that's why all QF employees should be worried about the direction we're going. :suspect:

[AlphaLord]

Joyce was given the CEO position because he would be both grateful and compliant.
Borghetti is anything but compliant.
Qantas' loss Virgin's Gain

[xjt]

what Keg said.........:D

[StallBoy]

Good to see QANTAS is returning to it's core business :DYes Australia to NewZealand the dearest piece of water to cross in the world :ok:but the best returns. All we need now is for the government to re-regulate the airline industry:eek:

[hbomb]

I returned from SFO on QF 74 last week and was very disappointed to discover that the route is being axed (again) in favour of DFW. Not enough equipment to service both I was told. Similarly, not enough equipment for more than LHR and FRA in Europe. Europe's worst airports if you are in transit. If only there were a few spare 777s around. Of course I haven't seen the numbers but it is hard to believe that SFO wouldn't generate a 777 load if it operated daily. Especially since QF doesn't operate anywhere in northern north america. And now that Air Berlin is joining Oneworld, ditching its loco origins and developing a hub in VIE, it would be good if QF could join up there. If only it had a few 777s. If only...

[newsensation]

What about more Qantas services to London via Bangkok???

[Mud Skipper]

What about a Qantas service from Melbourne to Bangkok:}:}:}

[skybed]

with the new curfew in FRA later this year, QF is actively looking for an alternate airport in Europa.Given that Air Berlin is joining the one world alliance next year one of their hubs in Berlin, Munich or Vienna might be a possibility.:ok:

[Taildragger67]

What is it, 5 new A380 hulls joining this year? Plus one being returned after getting the splinters out; each to co-incide with a 744 getting pensioned off.

So would there not be capacity if the Jumbos were retained? At least until some Triplers arrived... :E

[TIMA9X]

Crying poor again?
jsyiy5WqSTM

[Kangaroo Court]

Freakin' awesome dude!

[TIMA9X]

UKX9ARRaGC4

Part-4 J&W, a few of the guys I have worked with for years put a song together, towards the cause, ie; Keep aviation jobs in Oz!

Song Who's Driving from Blakhatz Sydney.

Enjoy. :) update, fixed sound streaming and link problem.

[adsyj]

Just in regards to the original post and headline of this thread.

Could it be that the plan to sell off Jetstar and then reinvent Qantas as a premium carrier is not totally without merit.

Unfotuanetly I am not a business expert and would be happy to hear from the more informed on this subject.

I see it this way:

Jetstar being sold would stop the drain on Qantas finances.
Qantas effectively leaves the very competitive LCC market and uses the funds from the sale to ramp up its international and profitable business domestic market.
I imagine a sale of Jetstar would result in solid bonuses for the QF Board and Management and we know how they love that.

I'm sure there are many other valid reasons.

I throw this open to discussion and would love to hear from the more knowledgeable amongst us.

[Howard Hughes]

What about the routes that Qantas handed to Jetstar? Would they then re-enter those routes? Would they have the spare capacity?

In my opinion low cost carriers are all 'smoke and mirrors'. If you compare prices on the various websites, apart from a few high profile specials prices are very similar. Personally given a choice I would still fly Qantas everytime!:ok:

PS: Only ever flown Jetstar once, but never again.

[TIMA9X]

My monthly weekend J & W, enjoy
hgBGwa41C1o:)