Airborne Radiation Threat

[Air Profit]

...probably time for the question to be raised: is there a threat to operating aircraft on the Japan/North Pacific routes with the obvious threat from radiation that seems to be developing? Thoughts? :ooh:

[Captian Desi]

If one of the reactors blows up or there is a massive leak in one of them , it is guranteed it will fry your ass even above FL350. :mad: :mad: wont be pretty !!! , I am not going anywhere near it :=:=:=:=:=:=:=

[turnandburn]

it was reported the No 2 reactor contain vessel pressure dropped from 3 atmosphere to 1 atmosphere and there was an internal explosion more than half off fuel rods exposed and melting.
US carrier group detected higher than normal radiation levels 160 km off shore and has moved further north.

Sadly it would appear the containment vessel is now breached and significant radiation could be leaking.

A northerly wind is blowing from the site so narita an tokyo in drirect path of any potential fallout.
If you have any friends rostered for narita I would strongly suggest reporting UF. As the inept corporate safety have no clue as to the potential damage to the health of crew particularly the younger crew members.

[Air Profit]

Gentlemen. It is now becoming rapidly more dangerous to be anywhere near this area....or downwind. It appears highly likely that the reactor core has been breached. This will now introduce highly dangerous radioactive particles into the air. At the very least CX should consider stopping any further crews heading to Japan. This could prove to be as catastrophic as Chernobyl. There is news being released minute by minute...and none of it is good. If you have friends in Japan, it would be wise to get them out. This will not end well...

[turnandburn]

recommend monitoring now tv channel 710
NHK is now broadcasitng predominantly in english and has the most up to date info.

[Tornado Ali]

NHK reporting higher levels of cesium in Tokyo. 22 x usual level...and that a no fly zone over Fukushima and a 30km radius around it is being imposed, according to the Japanese government. That is not a good sign at all.

[N1 Vibes]

According to Reuters Air China have cancelled flights to Tokyo today....Cathay is "closely monitoring" this as an opportunity to make more obscene profits....:}

[nitpicker330]

According to other threads in Downunder JQ have stopped overnights in NRT and all US carriers have stopped flying to Japan?

Come on AOA, this is what we really need you for.

[nitpicker330]

Also, shouldn't every CX KA A/C that's flown through Japanese airspace be checked for contamination? Just as a precaution. The USS Ronald Regan and some of it's helo's were contaminated and needed a wash down, now they've moved further away!!

[Beta Light]

Come on AOA, this is what we really need you for.

Get a "no fly zone" in place for the union members, let the non members negotiate for themselves. So tired of carrying the spineless jelly fish along.

[N1 Vibes]

CX in true conservative style:

so far there has been no authoritative suggestion that flight operations to Japan are likely to be affected. We will continue to comply fully with guidelines from relevant aviation authorities

Rathern than taking there own lead, waiting for somebody else to make the decision......I mean didn't anybody notice that the Japanese government is too busy right now to talk to foreign airlines?

[nitpicker330]

IAEA Update on Japan Earthquake (http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/tsunamiupdate01.html)


Reactors 1, 2 and 3 are now cold. (safe)

Reactor 4's fire is now out BUT they are still working to reduce the temp and presumably stop the earlier reported Radiation leaks.

Mmmm

[Freehills]

Crew union refusing to even do transit flights, abandoning thousands of passengers wanting to escape the situation. Probably not the best PR move...

[chards]

And I have 3 rostered flights to Tokyo in the next 2 weeks, can't wait :bored:

[Inigo Montoya]

Looking over the link, there seems to be two Fukushima locations. From the article linked by Nitpicker (I added the bold):

All units at the Fukushima Daini, Onagawa, and Tokai nuclear power plants are in a safe and stable condition (i.e. cold shutdown).

The IAEA remains concerned over the status of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, where sea water injections to cool the reactors in Units 1, 2 and 3 are continuing. Attempts to return power to the entire Daiichi site are also continuing.

The one that has had the explosions, is still causing issues, and not cool, but both locations do have ongoing evacuation warnings, in addition to the no-fly zone.

[Pomerian]

Actually Lufthansa has diverted flights from Tokyo to Nagoya and Osaka

Swiss International Air Lines has interim stop to Hong Kong on its route to Tokyo in order to shorten turnaround times in the Japanese capital

Austrian Airlines said its NRT-Vienna flights would make a stop at Seoul Incheon to allow crews to layover in South Korea instead of Japan.

HOWEVER, Hong Kong's flagship airline Cathay Pacific said Tuesday it would keep flying to and from Tokyo

[Air Profit]

...and of course, on CX's home page, there is now a notice telling us that there is 'much misunderstanding about nuclear radiation' (implying that of course we don't know what's good for our own health). Only those sitting on top of the reactor are in any danger...the rest of us should just stop complaining and get on with it..... :mad:

[Pomerian]

o... yea... then why not those sitting at the office operate the flights and proof to us that is sooooooo safe to operate and stay there?!

[u3k bus driver]

The United Airlines ALPA leaders sent out a message today to their pilots stating the union's position. For brevity, I have cut out a small section of it:

If you believe that your safety and welfare will be at risk by flying to Narita, you should advise the company (your flight office) of this fact and refuse the assignment. Further, the Association will support, to its fullest extent, any pilot who refuses an assignment to Narita under the current conditions and it is the vehement position of the Association that no pilot be disciplined or penalized for exercising what they believe to be the protection their health.

[arse]

"Meanwhile, Cathay Pacific Airways Flight Attendants Union urged the management to stop requiring crew members of Japan bound fights to stay overnight amind fears of radiation contamination. A spokesman for the carrier said it is safe to continue normal operations, including letting cabin crew stay overnight in Tokyo, but it will make changes if required."

Yeah right!

The article is headed by a photo of a radiation detector in Tokyo showing what looks like a 0.6 milliseverts reading.

How are the aftershocks affecting Tokyo? Are overnighting crews getting decent rest?

Safety first! :rolleyes:

[jed_thrust]

I cannot personally speak for the veracity of this site, but then I think all politicians are liars as well. Perhaps the truth lies in-between?

#1 Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan is urging all people living within 30 kilometers of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear facility to stay indoors.

#2 Andre-Claude Lacoste, the head of France's Nuclear Safety Authority, says that the containment vessel surrounding the No. 2 reactor at Japan's Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear complex is "no longer sealed".

#3 Radiation levels in Tokyo are already 10 times above normal levels.

#4 Reuters is reporting that some residents of Tokyo are already starting to flee the city.

#5 Radiation levels in one city north of Tokyo, Utsunomiya, were recently reported to be 33 times above normal levels.

#6 Radiation levels in the city of Saitama have been reported to be 40 times above normal levels.

#7 According to Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan, the "possibility of further radioactive leakage is heightening."

#8 The Japanese government is admitting that radiation levels near the Fukushima Dai-ichi complex are very harmful to human health.

#9 According to the World Nuclear Association, exposure to over 100 millisieverts of radiation a year can lead to cancer. At this point the level of radiation being measured right outside the number 4 reactor at the Fukushima Dai-ichi complex is 400 millisieverts per hour.

#10 A U.S. Navy crew that was assisting in relief efforts was exposed to a month’s worth of nuclear radiation in just a single hour.

#11 According to the U.S. Navy, low levels of radiation have been detected at their bases in Yokosuka and Atsugi.

#12 The USS Ronald Reagan recently detected significant levels of radiation 100 miles off the Japanese coast.

#13 The operator of the Fukushima Dai-ichi complex has pulled out 750 of the 800 workers that were working at the facility.

#14 The French embassy in Tokyo is advising French citizens to leave the city.

#15 The German embassy in Tokyo is advising all German citizens to leave the country entirely.

#16 German technology company SAP is evacuating their offices in Tokyo.

#17 Austria has announced that it is moving its embassy from Tokyo to Osaka due to fears about the radiation.

#18 Finland is urging all of their citizens to leave Tokyo.

#19 The Czech military is sending planes to Japan specifically to evacuate the Czech Philharmonic Orchestra.

#20 Air China is canceling many flights to Tokyo.

#21 The Chinese Embassy has announced that it will be evacuating all Chinese citizens from the Miyagi, Fukushima, Ibaraki and Iwate prefectures.

#22 Russia is making preparations to evacuate civilians and military units from the Kuril Islands.

#23 Physicist Frank von Hippel recently told the New York Times the following about this disaster: "It’s way past Three Mile Island already".

#24 The president of France's nuclear safety authority says that this crisis is now almost as bad as Chernobyl was....

"It's clear we are at Level 6, that's to say we're at a level in between what happened at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl."

#25 There have been reports of extremely high radiation at another nuclear facility in Japan. It has been reported that at the Onagawa nuclear plant radiation that is 700 times the normal level was detected at one point.

#26 One anonymous senior nuclear industry executive told The Times Of India that Japanese power industry managers are "basically in a full-scale panic" and that "they don't know what to do".

#27 It is also being reported that there were over 600,000 spent fuel rods stored at the Fukushima Dai-ichi complex. Most of these rods were apparently stored near the top of the 6 reactor buildings. There have already been major explosions at three of those buildings. It is now feared that there is now nothing to prevent many of these spent fuel rods from releasing radiation into the atmosphere. That is really, really bad news.

From: 27 Signs That The Nuclear Crisis In Japan Is Much Worse Than Either The Mainstream Media Or The Japanese Government Have Been Telling Us (http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/27-signs-that-the-nuclear-crisis-in-japan-is-much-worse-than-either-the-mainstream-media-or-the-japanese-government-have-been-telling-us)

[CokeZero]

I love the latest news letter from the GMO dated 16 March 2011.

"We have been in contact with Airbus and Boeing in regards to radioactive contamination of an airframe; we have been advised that any contamination results in the aircraft effectively having to be retired from service. We take this advice very seriously."

Only now after being advised with no insurance on planes do they make the decision to suspend overnights.

Go figure

[nitpicker330]

Somebody in the Nuclear Reactor world must know how to fix the problem surely??????

I guess NRT overnights will be a thing of the past for say .......100 years?

[Freehills]

But meanwhile it is OK for the Japanese ground staff to continue working in Tokyo, the engineers, check in staff, ramp crew etc.

[superfrozo]

JedThrust, with respect - that website you referenced appears to be the "New York Post" of websites.

Quotes like:

- "We are not just talking about a repeat of Chernobyl.
We are possibly talking about "many Chernobyls", and...
- "Why would they be evacuating if there was no threat?"
(er, as a basic precaution and in the interests of duty-of-care perhaps??)

...are the very definition of scare mongering. I'm not trying to downplay the seriousness - any nuclear incident/accident is serious, but let's be honest: the subject matter on this issue is basically too complex for the lay person to understand.

I would rather listen to the IAEA's updates on the issue, they might just have a little more credibility than a guy who runs a blog on the upcoming global "Economic Collapse" and includes links to where you can buy gold and silver coins (& iPads?!?) on eBay!

:)

[CokeZero]

Do they have enough speed-tape to fix this one?

[EXEZY]

A lot of info out there, I think CX will have to cancel flights eventually.

Radioactive Winds chase evacuees in Japan; Hawaii threatened by Fukushima fallout (http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=23719)

Japan's nuclear emergency prompts panic buying in Tokyo | World news | The Guardian (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/15/japan-nuclear-emergency-panic-buying)

[Pomerian]

they have already changed the Tokyo layover pattern to turnaround pattern!
heard that lots of cabin crew has reported sick last few days for these used to be "golden flights" for them

[Frogman1484]

Well all I can say is...I'm not going to Tokyo until it is all sorted out!

I do not care if the Dr says it is safe...no radiation is good for you!!! What is going o happen it the plant blows while you are there!

I think let Richard H go!

[EXEZY]

There is more to this than meets the eye!


YouTube - Japan's Nuclear Crisis Is "Completely Out Of Control!" (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yar3KRBsBjA&feature=player_embedded#at=183)

Japan earthquake and tsunami: French claim full scale of nuclear disaster being hidden | Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1366670/Japan-earthquake-tsunami-French-claim-scale-nuclear-disaster-hidden.html)

Nuclear Plant Operator: Water in Pool Storing Spent Nuclear Fuel Rods May Be Boiling, an Ominous Sign for Release of Radioactivity | zero hedge (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/nuclear-plant-operator-water-pool-storing-spent-nuclear-fuel-rods-may-be-boiling-ominous-sig)

When All Else Fails, Change The Rules: Japan Increases Maximum "Safe" Radiation Dose Allowed For Nuclear Workers By 150% To Near-Chernobyl Levels | zero hedge (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/when-all-else-fails-change-rules-japan-doubles-maximum-dose-allowed-nuclear-workers)

Superfrozo, with all due respect I will have to politely disagree with you. You must understand that you cannot trust the mainstream media. Reading the BBC is like reading the Beano. They will not tell you how bad it is until it's far, far too late. Why take any chance with you're life and you're health.
It seems strange, as aviation professionals one would assume we have a fairly good handle on risk, we counter potential threats every day of our flying lives, now suddenly a threat looms large on the horizon and instead of giving yourself a personal CTWO+ brief, emphasis on the + mind you, you are going to let some irresponsible international agency take responsibility for you!
If a fraction of what is being reported by alternative news sources is correct, then we have absolutely no business being anywhere near Tokyo.

[Michael Hunt]

Holy **** ladies sounds like the kind of uninformed crap that we all had to endure during SARS and the bird flu panic.
Let me guess, you are the same "guys" who refuse to push back until your gluten free meal is loaded.
You are probably copping a bigger dose going over the pole every month than any potential threat from a Tokyo turnaround as it stands right now.
Now turn off FOX news, toughen up and spare a thought for the Japanese on the ground who are dealing with this catastrophe in their usual dignified manner.

[CokeZero]

If CX suspend operations to Tokyo and/or Japan then how are they going to afford the tea and biscuits for Friday afternoon? After all they are jacking up the prices of airfares to Japan at the moment because nobody else is flying there. I'm surprised "The Management" hasn't been on to talk about his bonus!

[betpump5]

Michael Hunt

Hear Hear....

Finally someone with a bit of sense on the forum. Can't believe I fly with some of these numbnuts

[nitpicker330]

Mr Hunt...... I have never said we shouldn't be flying to NRT, in view of the ever changing situation with regards to the power plant, the number of people wanting to leave Tokyo ( and the ensuring pandemonium in the airport environs ) the threat of further earthquakes etc etc it would be prudent not to overnight there at this stage especially since we don't really have to whilst maintaining a full schedule. It's best to keep the crew in the Aircraft in transit.
It seems logic has prevailed and CX finally have seen the light too.

[FlexibleResponse]

I really don't think it comes down to an argument such as, "you don't have the balls to crew a flight to Tokyo".

If we knew who was telling the truth, the complete truth and even if the actual truth can be known at this stage...then we might be able to make a value judgment based on real facts.

If you live and work in Tokyo then you may not have the opportunity to leave. In that case your chances of radiation illness or other health related repercussions in the next few weeks/months, are a lot higher than just about every other person in the world. As one of the female Tokyo residents said on the news today words to the effect that "I am scared, but I am still going to work as I must face my destiny".

But, if you don't live in Tokyo, the advice of many educated and industrialized country's Governments is to get the heck out of "Dodge City".

It doesn't matter for old people like me to go to Tokyo as I am probably more likely to die of old age than from radiation related health issues.

But, for young crew with healthy balls and ovaries and still in and at the breeding age, I would suggest the risk of exposure and the financial reward for such exposure to be weighed very carefully indeed. Any damage will last their whole lifetime (and possibly their offspring).

EXEZY has given us a good link (above). Even if you don't read the words, the pictures tell a very sobering story which even the most technically inept of us can draw reasonable conclusions as to the situation of the reactors and therefore the personal risk involved in visiting Tokyo in the near future.

Japan earthquake and tsunami: French claim full scale of nuclear disaster being hidden | Mail Online (http://go.redirectingat.com/?id=42X487496&xs=1&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailymail.co.uk%2Fnews%2Farticle-1366670%2FJapan-earthquake-tsunami-French-claim-scale-nuclear-disaster-hidden.html&sref=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pprune.org%2Fnewreply.php%3Fdo%3Dnewre ply%26noquote%3D1%26p%3D6311722)

Your call of course... :(

[Flap10]

Michael Hunt and betbump5, it's nice to see the cx spirit is alive and well, could you kindly inform crew control of your preference to do nothing but NRT turns...saves me from going there :E

[Michael Hunt]

Would have absolutely no qualms about operating an aircraft into Tokyo with regards to the current situation.
As far as I can tell after sifting through all the worst case scenario and doomsday predictions on the net and ratings driven 24 hr cable news stations is that there has been no harmful radiation detected anywhere in the tokyo area.
Obviously this is a very fluid situation and vigilance is warranted but to get involved in the media hype is ridiculous.

[Capt Toss Parker]

Jolly good show Mr. Hunt!

Some of these lady boys need to get four spoonfuls of concrete a dash of super glue 500ml of water .... mix it up .... drink it

AND HARDEN THE HELL UP!

Ohhh the center pedestal is filthy I cant work like this ... delay the flight and get the cleaners back ...the sandwiches are stale ....cry me a Yangtze River

unkIVvjZc9Y

[freightdog188]

Whilst I am fully aware of the fact that the events at Fukushima may lead to a rapid deterioration of the situation - right now there is no reason to worry in Tokyo:

Tokyo radiation levels are 10 times the normal value. Scary scary, eh?
But what does it mean in reality?
0.809 micro sieverts/hour were recorded in central Tokyo at 10.00 a.m. local time on the 15th.

Now how does that relate to other sources of radiation?

How about an hour of flight time?: Gives you about 5.5 micro sieverts
Eating a banana? Gives you 0.1 micro sieverts ...

you get my drift?

there is no reason to worry (not yet, anyways)

[superfrozo]

Freightdoggie, that is the most ridiculous post I have ever seen.

I mean, WHO brings facts and balanced perspective onto PPRuNe..?! :confused:

[yokebearer]

So if I eat more than 8 bananas I should not do a Tokyo flight?

[hongkongfooey]

Sorry, this just cracks me the fark up.
You sit here in HKG breathing in sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, heavy metals, ozone, and particulate matter that is anywhere from 4 to 60 times the WHO limit more than 50% of the year and you are worried about radiation that coud make a mosquito mildly ill after 4 years of exposure to it.
Really ???? cuckoo cuckoo :}

[jed_thrust]

0.809 micro sieverts/hour were recorded in central Tokyo

I agree, that's fine. If it's true.

The problem is that everyone and every organisation has a vested interest, from the IAEA (promotion of nuclear power), to the BBC (continued funding from the Govt), to airlines (appeasement of shareholder requirments).

Even I have a vested interest: to keep safe by reducing risks.

[Argus Tuffit]

http://www.powergenworldwide.com/index/display/wire-news-display/1379823380.html

Phew, I'll sleep better now after reading that. NOT. :ugh:

[jed_thrust]

From this morning's The Australian:

THE government has warned Australians not to travel to Tokyo or to anywhere on Honshu Island, north of the Japanese capital, because of uncertainty over the nuclear power stations battered by the earthquake and tsunami.

After a meeting of the National Security Committee of Cabinet in Canberra last night, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade raised its travel warning for northern Honshu to its highest level: "Do not travel."

"Australians should not travel to Tokyo and northern Honshu unless their presence in Japan is essential," said the advice issued at about 11pm. "Australians in these areas should leave unless their presence in Japan is essential."

The overall level of the advice for Japan has increased to: "Exercise a high degree of caution."

[FlexibleResponse]

Argus Tuffit's link to the story about Daya Bay Nuclear Power Station being safer than the Fukishima Facility brought a wry smile to my face.

For those of us who were in Hong Kong during the construction stage of Daya Bay will remember SCMP reports of serious construction errors and finally the revelation that the facility was built almost on top of a seismically active fault line...safer indeed...my fat butt!

Some eerily familiar and somewhat chilling information in this link:

Information Bridge: DOE Scientific and Technical Information - Sponsored by OSTI (http://www.osti.gov/bridge/servlets/purl/5823192-g8XUCb/)

(Apologies for thread creep)

[EXEZY]

I don't care what all of you macho buffoons say but there is no safe exposure to radiation, period. We are not talking about comparable levels to that experienced whilst flying, that is ludicrous, if that was the case why is half of Tokyo getting "out of Dodge".
I think we've been spoon fed to much bull**** by the BBC and CX for that matter, there are far too many vested interests here, since when did corporations care about anyones health? Pity those poor buggers pissing into the wind trying in vain to extinguish 40 years worth of spent nuclear rods, lambs to the slaughter, all in the hope of painting a picture of everything being under control.

Reactor #4 Breached, In Full Meltdown, Releasing Lethal Radiation | Alexander Higgins Blog (http://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/2011/03/16/japan-nuclear-reactor-4-breached-full-meltdown-releasing-lethal-radiation-expands-evacuation-area-50-miles-8629/)

[EXEZY]

Three Mile Island nuclear expert: I'm taking potassium iodine tablets against radiation.
Update: a nuclear industry veteran explains why Japan's disaster could take a year to unfold, and contaminate for decades.

David CaseMarch 15, 2011 14:04
PrintEmail0digg

Firefighters join search and rescue efforrts on the northeast coast of Japan on March 14, 2011. (Patrick Fuller/Japanese Red Cross/Getty Images)
UPDATE: A cascading nuclear disaster at the the Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in Fukushima still eludes control. By Wednesday morning in Japan, explosions had occurred in three reactors, and a fire had broken out in a fourth. At least one reactor containment has apparently been damaged, releasing a significant dose of radiation. In the Nos. 5 and 6 plants — previously thought to be of no concern — authorities detected a rise in temperature levels, leading them to report that they were keeping an eye on these reactors as well, according to the Wall Street Journal.

For several days, authorities have attempted to reassure the public. Now, they are pleading for help.

To get independent answers about the risks faced by people, GlobalPost turned to Arnold Gundersen, a 39-year veteran of the nuclear industry. Now chief engineer at Fairwinds Associates, he has worked as a nuclear plant operator and he served as an expert witness in the investigation into the Three Mile Island accident.

GlobalPost: Officials have said the possibility of a large-scale radiation release is small. Do you agree?

Arnold Gundersen: I think that the probability of a large scale release is about 50-50, and I don’t call that small.

GlobalPost: Why do you think that?

Gundersen: For several reasons. One, you’ve got three reactors involved. Two, you’re already picking up radiation on aircraft carriers a hundred miles away at sea, on helicopters 60 miles to the north, and in town. So clearly, as these plants become more and more difficult to control, it becomes quite likely that a containment now will have a gross failure. And a gross failure will release enormous amounts of radiation quickly.

GlobalPost: The New York Times is reporting that radioactive releases could go on for weeks or months. How concerned should we be about that? At what point does a reactor like this becomes less menacing?

Gundersen: The chain reaction has stopped. That happened in two seconds. But the radioactive isotopes are still decaying away. They’ll decay for at least a year. So you have to release the pressure from that containment pretty much every day. With releasing the pressure will come releasing radioactive isotopes as well.


So yes, the Times is right that every plant — there are now three or four of them — will be opening up valves every day to make sure the pressure is down. And there will be releases from these plants for at least a year.

GlobalPost: How much of a health threat is that?

Gundersen: Within 90 days, the iodine health risks will disappear, because that will decay away. But the nasty isotopes — the cesium and strontium will remain for 30 years. And they’re volatile.

After Three Mile Island, strontium was detected 150 miles away from the reactor. That ends up in cow’s milk and doesn’t go away for 300 years. The releases from these plants will last for a year, and will contain elements that will remain in the environment for 300 years, even in the best case.

If we have a meltdown, it will be even worse than that.

GlobalPost: The ultimate risk in any nuclear accident is that the heat can grow so intense that the steel containment vessel is ruptured, releasing a large amount of radiation. You say there’s a 50-50 chance of this happening. What kind of health effects can we expect?

Gundersen: First, it’s important to know that this steel containment is about an inch thick. It’s not some massive battleship of steel. The reactor is already open, because the pressure relief valves have to stay open.

On top of that, these containments have already breached. We saw iodine and cesium in the environment before the first unit exploded. When you see that, that’s clearly an indication that the containment has breached.

Now, is it leaking 1 percent a day? Probably. Is it leaking 100 percent a day? No. I think for the neighboring towns out to 2 miles, they won’t have anybody back in them for five years. Out to 15 miles, I doubt you’re going to see anyone back for six months. And that’s in the best case, without a meltdown.

If we have a meltdown, I don’t think anyone will be back within 20 miles for 10 or 15 years.

GlobalPost: What would happen if they did return?

Gundersen: There would be higher incidence of cancer. The groundwater would be contaminated. With a meltdown, you’re worried about surface contamination of everything within miles of the plant, and groundwater contamination as well.

GlobalPost: How far would the ground water contamination spread?

Gundersen: Chernobyl had a meltdown, and that groundwater wedge is gradually working its way toward Kiev, which is a very large city [about 80 miles away]. That groundwater contamination lingers for 300 years. It’s not something that’s easy to mitigate.

GlobalPost: That’s a serious issue in a country like Japan with a large population and a small land area.

Gundersen: That’s right.

GlobalPost: You mentioned that the containment vessels have already been damaged. It appears that officials are reporting the opposite. How do you know you’re right?

Gundersen: We’re seeing iodine and cesium in the environment. That’s an indication that the containments are leaking. Exactly how much they’re leaking it’s hard to say.

I can’t understand how officials can say that the releases are low, when they don’t have any instruments that are working. Their batteries have failed, and when the batteries fail, all of the instruments stop working. So it’s hard to determine what the radiation levels are, and what the pressure levels are.

The Japanese and the nuclear industry are heavily, heavily financially invested in this. My experience is that, after Three Mile Island and after Chernobyl, everybody said there wasn’t a problem, until there was a problem. So I really don’t put much faith in official pronouncements the first week of an accident.

GlobalPost: So the people who have access to information have a self interest in making that information look as benign as possible?

Gundersen: Yes. On top of that, the officials don’t want to provoke a panic. So there’s a financial long term interest to try to minimize the impact. The flip side of that is that in the process you lose transparency. There is no transparency right now. We’re dealing with second hand information.

I understand from one source that the second unit cannot be vented, because the vent is jammed. I don’t know if that’s true or not. I have one source, and I like to have two. But this accident hasn’t played out yet. It could clearly get worse before it gets better.

GlobalPost: When you say the venting system is jammed, does that mean that pressure will keep building up until something catastrophic happens?

Gundersen: Yes.

GlobalPost: That sounds bad. There have been explosions at two of the buildings where the reactors are housed. You used to operate nuclear reactors. Would the control rooms be affected by these explosions? And how do they continue controlling the reactors under these circumstances?




Gundersen: Yes. The control rooms have become almost uninhabitable. The operators would have to be in Scott air packs, because the ventilation failed. Otherwise they would be breathing contaminated air. The control room is very close to these reactors. Probably 200 feet away. I doubt there’s much being done in the control rooms. They’re contaminated, and the air is unfit to breathe. It’s very difficult to get anything done if you’re wearing an air pack and a bubble suit.

GlobalPost: So how do they release the pressure? Are they sending people to the reactor to manually do these things?

Gundersen: They’ll send someone out to manually open a valve. And then that person will go back out to manually close a valve. In a high radiation field, there are only so many trips you can make before you’ve exceeded what they call emergency limits. So these people are picking up very large doses in very short periods of time. For their personal health, you can’t send them out again.

So they’re running through the available number of operators to do these high risk maneuvers.

GlobalPost: Is it highly skilled work?

Gundersen: Yes.

GlobalPost: Do these doses endanger their health, or are they below thresholds that would cause a problem?

Gundersen: The probability of these workers getting cancer is dramatically increasing, because the doses they receive in a day are higher than what they get in a year. For every 250 rem received, there will be a cancer. That’s pretty well defined. So if one person picks up 2.5 rem, for every hundred people, one of them will get a cancer. That’s just a statistical crapshoot.

GlobalPost: How safe is Tokyo at this point?

Gundersen: The radiation is being diluted by the wind and spread out. Tokyo is a long way away. Germany is a long way from Chernobyl, and the ground in Germany is so contaminated that they are still prohibiting the hunting of wild boars, 25 years later.

But we don’t have a lot of accurate measures. There’s a U.S. aircraft carrier 100 miles away, and the workers on that aircraft carrier received in one hour the dose they would normally get in one month.

GlobalPost: Is there any risk that the radiation would reach American shores?

Gundersen: Oh it will. Chernobyl reached the U.S. The question is how much radiation? There’s not a lot of data to make that determination right now.

GlobalPost: Should people be concerned about food contamination?

Gundersen: Certainly in Japan they should.

I’ve gone out and bought potassium iodine pills, and I plan to take potassium iodine starting in about 10 days, just because I’m concerned about food contamination. That’s a personal choice right now. My experience says that it would be prudent to get potassium iodine pills and take them, to avoid any of the iodine that might come over. But there’s not a lot of data to support whether or not potassium iodine really helps.

GlobalPost: Is that something that you can buy in a health food store?

Gundersen: Yes, you can get these pills in health food stores and online, although I hear that they’re selling out.

Business & Tech Science

[superfrozo]

They're "getting out of dodge" because ill-informed scare-mongering speculators are filling the airwaves & sucking up bandwidth with trite nonsense, based on little more than (a complete lack of) armchair expertise and an unhealthy obsession with the latest "update" from some imbecilic blogger.

Statements such as "No such thing as a healthy dose of radiation..." are a prime example of just the sort ignorance that is leading to panicked and ultimately pointless salt & potassium iodine tablet sales.

So you're happy to sit in a veritable sea of RF everyday of your life?!?
Surely you don't use wi-fi or go where there is any?? Of course, you may know the difference between ionising & non-ionising radiation, but then...
Never turn on the weather radar I hope...??
After all, you're intimately familiar with the propagation of sidelobes from planar and phased array T/Rs right?!?!
Perhaps you understand the fundamentals of alpha/beta/gamma/x-ray radiation and their respective differences?
Well, at least you refuse to do polar flights?
TELL me you don't eat bananas??

Fark me, being "macho" has nothing to do with it. It's about opening a book once in a while and learning something. People need to put down their "People" magazines and open a ^&*king science book. The world will thank you for it. It prevents us from becoming panicked SARs-esque screaming, sky-is-falling chicken littles.

The ONLY reason people are lemming(-ing?!) their way to Narita is because of the basic human emotion of FEAR overriding their rational decision making. There is the potential for deaths from this incident, but at the moment they're more than likely to come from hysterical stampeding caused by fear mongering morons.

We're just lucky the Japanese are calm and know how to queue.

[EXEZY]

I see that you've been brushing up on your ATPL theory there superfrozo, I took that exam, I believe it was Radioaids under the JAR system.

Not that Chenobile was ever downplayed was it? I understand we face radiation from multiple aviation sources, but how does that compare to cesium and other radioactive nasties? Not in the same ball park I would hazard a guess.


Anyway on the same theme:

Tokyo Passengers Set Off O'Hare Radiation Detectors | zero hedge (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tokyo-passengers-set-ohare-radiation-detectors)

[Traffic]

ATIS for Niigata yesterday indicated caution concerning radioactive cloud.

Half a dozen Chinese airliners there along with an extremely large Russian heavylift helicopter.

I'm with Tossco, Master Hunt and FR. Our humanity is not defined by our pay check and the fact that management are a bunch of avaricious nimrods.

7 in and out of NRT and 2 HND today. Good work.

[Algol]

7 in and out of NRT and 2 HND today. Good work.

**** man - sounds like they want rid of you!

[BusyB]

A Glowing Report on Radiation - HUMAN EVENTS (http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=42347)
:}

[404 Titan]

BusyB

I found that article interesting reading until I saw who wrote it. She is a regular on that bastion of informed media, Fox News.:yuk:

[BusyB]

Thanks for that 404, I wouldn't recognise anyone on FOX as I never watch it. I am a little dubious about the article but thought it was of interest.:ok:

[BusyB]

Just found that New York Times originally published this in 2001.

[freightdog188]

I am not sure about everything that was mentioned in this article, however I do know that Chernobyl - contrary to public perception - did not cause any public health problems in Poland or Germany, the first being only 300 km away from ground zero.
No increase in leukemia or thyroid cancer or any other form of cancer anywhere along the track of the radioactive cloud.
The only cancer cases that developed - and each of these would have been preventable with Iodide treatment and screening of agricultural products- were in some areas of the former Soviet Union, where a) children did not get treated with potassium iodide and b) were given milk from cows that grazed on contaminated soil for a long time.

This can all be read in WHO publications.
As superfrozo said... put away the newspapers, magazines et cetera and grab a science publication.

[Dan Winterland]

''I don't care what all of you macho buffoons say but there is no safe exposure to radiation, period.''

Actually, scientists are now suggesting that a little bit of radiation is good for you. It kills off the viable mutated cells which can develope into cancers. Statistics show a lower cancer rate amongst employees who work with low level radiaiton evices such as airport x-ray machines. A good analogy is the areas of the UK which have elevated levels of naturally occuring radon gas. The rates of all types of cancer are lower in these areas. But the rates of lung cancer - which has exposure to radon as a prime factor - are up.

Radon is created when uranium decays. The areas of the UK where radon is present in high concentrations tend to have granite as a bed rock where naturally formed uranium deposits are common.

What's Hong Kong built on? It's granite! And what's more - granite is used as an aggregate in concrete in most buildings here. Studies were done in the 1990s as to the levels of radon in Hong Kong buidings and I suggest that if you're easily worried about radiation - you don't google 'Radon gas in Hong Kong'.

[411A]

Actually, scientists are now suggesting that a little bit of radiation is good for you. It kills off the viable mutated cells which can develope into cancers. Statistics show a lower cancer rate amongst employees who work with low level radiaiton evices such as airport x-ray machines.
Yes, 'tis a fact.

Actually...years ago there were foot xray machines in many shoe stores in the USA...you could step up, push the ON button, and look at your feet in your (about to be purchased) shoes, to see if the fit was proper.
The big green glow, it was called, at the time.
NO one, to my knowledge, had their feet drop off due to the radiation.
I stuffed my cat into one of these machines, and looked at at him for many minutes (perhaps hours)...and the cat lived to age 23.
Didn't end there, either.
When the cat finally died, we had him stuffed and properly mounted, and placed on the top of the house bar.
'Harvey' provided a proper 'mood light', glowing nicely blue/green, for our guests.

[Algol]

Glow In The Dark Pussy.....isn't that a bar in Wanchai?

Seriously though 411A, I've noted your other posts on the R&N Forum. They seem to infer the danger is being somewhat played down (John Wayne etc).

So, straight up, would you refuse to fly into Tokyo?
Cheers.

[Rice power]

The following link is to a realtime radiation monitor in Tokyo, updated every minute.
altTokyo.com | Tokyo Radiation (http://www.alttokyo.com/tokyo-radiation-2/)
Try reading fact instead of being a conduit for hysteria.
The Japanese are dealing with this in an honourable fashion while you whine in the background. Try a little self reflection.

[411A]

So, straight up, would you refuse to fly into Tokyo?

Certainly not...in fact we might have a charter there, shortly, if the deposit arrives in time.
Now, if one of the defective reactors blows its top, big time, and spews copious amounts of radiation in all directions, might be a different story.
However, in this case, the airspace is likely to be closed, anyway.

[jed_thrust]

For example, when Tony says "we value the contributions of our employees", what he really means is "when we look at you, we see slaves picking cotton".

And when the japanese government says "there is no risk from radiation", what they really mean is "you are all fcuked".

Politicians, and managers, are short term fixated creatures. So they lie and cover up whatever is going wrong at that instant, because by the time the chickens come home to roost, they will be gone, and can throw their hands up in the air and claim ."there is no way we could have foreseen that".

To admit a current problem means that they would have to take responsibility for it, and this is something that these types of people are simply unable to do.

That is so true.

[Algol]

Certainly not...in fact we might have a charter there, shortly, if the deposit arrives in time.
Now, if one of the defective reactors blows its top, big time, and spews copious amounts of radiation in all directions, might be a different story.
However, in this case, the airspace is likely to be closed, anyway.

Fair enough.
Would you do two in a row at present?

[411A]

Fair enough.
Would you do two in a row at present?
Would not be a problem.

[freightdog188]

or 3 ... makes no difference. You'll collect much more ionizing radiation on the way there than on the ground in NRT or HND.

There is NO problem with going to Tokyo just now.
You know the radiation values (if you know where to look - someone posted a link I believe)
And for the worst case scenario:
You know how far it is from Fukushima.
You know here the wind comes from.
The rest is maths.

And - I can only say it again - 200+ km from ground zero you will NOT turn into the Incredible Hulk, nor into Spiderman (if a Japanese spider bites you) ...

[jed_thrust]

You'll collect much more ionizing radiation on the way there

That depends on whose figures you use.

On one set of numbers, a five or six hour turnaround is going to be equal to two month's of local flying.

So no, you won't collect more on the way there, but it's not a show stopper.

5 hours in NRT = 0.33 mSv (current worst case), therefore 18 trips is the same as your entire year's worth of flying.

[AsiaMiles]

I see everyone writing mSv - but do they mean micro or milli Sv, because there is a big difference. It most cases it is micro Sv that are being quoted in the technical sites not milliSv. The letter "M" applies to milli, the Greek letter "mu" is micro but most people's computers are not capable of writing that.

So please ensure you have your units correct otherwise you are getting invalid answers.

[411A]

So please ensure you have your units correct otherwise you are getting invalid answers.

Precisely, GIGO.
Personally, I would no have problem whatsoever to slip in NRT, repeatedly, during ops.

[freightdog188]

.33 mSv? That sounds quite high to me, where did you find this reading?

.33 mSv in 5 hours (milliSievert) equals 0.066 mSv/hr = 66 uSv/h (microSievert) which is about 10 to 12h of flight time at FL380 or so if we assume somewhat between 5.5 and 6.6 uSv/h ..

correct me if I have a maths failure here...

(P.S. I just did another google search and the highest reported radiation level I found for Tokyo was the 0.809 uSv/h on the 15th, which I quoted before)

[freightdog188]

to put it all into perspective ...

this chart is not exactly "sciencey", but makes for a nice "big picture"

http://xkcd.com/radiation/

[turnandburn]

I might be wrong but comparing the radiation levels of tokyo with hong kong it seems hong kong is on average higher? Just a rough comparison with gov web site for hk., most cities in japan are lower?

Apart from the ones in the immediate vicinity of the power plant of course. The amount of granite used in construction in HK has something to do with it.

[freightdog188]

and this is why everybody, who relies on the media as an exclusive source of information, gets scared ****less ... fearmongering to the extreme, watch and draw your own conclusions:

Video - Breaking News Videos from CNN.com (http://www.cnn.com/video/?/video/crime/2011/03/21/ng.japan.radiation.hln)

[FlexibleResponse]

Radioactivity in water at reactor 2 at the quake-damaged Fukushima nuclear plant has reached 10 million times the usual level, company officials say.

BBC News - Japan nuclear: Workers evacuated as radiation soars (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12872707)

Hmmmmm...I wonder if this is important..?

[Air Profit]

...ummm, Freightdog....at what point do you stop describing this as 'fearmongering' and start calling it what it is: The Worlds Most Serious Nuclear Event (since Chernobyl)..? This mornings headline in the UK Telegraph:

Japan nuclear crisis: huge increase in radiation level at crippled nuclear plant


The leap in radiation within the Fukushima Daiichi power plant was located in the turbine building of Number 2 reactor, where a reading of more than 1,000 millisieverts per hour was recorded, the highest since the plant was damaged in the March 11 earthquake and tsunami.

"This figure is 10 million times higher than water usually kept in a reactor," a spokesman said, though the company later retracted the calculation but not the radiation reading. "We are examining the cause of this, but no work is being done there because of the high level of radiation.

"High levels of caesium and other substances are being detected, which usually should not be found in reactor water. There is a high possibility that fuel rods are being damaged."



I'll let you have a think as to the seriousness of 1000 Mill/sev per hour.....

[Tornado Ali]

Hey Freightdog, here's some more 'fearmongering' for you:

a quote from a rep working for the Tokyo power company...

Regrettably, we don't have a concrete schedule at the moment to enable us to say in how many months or years (the crisis will be over)," TEPCO vice-president Sakae Muto said in the latest of round-the-clock briefings the company holds.

....have a ponder on the word YEARS....

yea, nothing to worry about here...move along.

[freightdog188]

@ Air Profit: it IS the most serious nuclear disaster since Chernobyl - and always was. I never said anything to the contrary.

But the high radiation levels (btw. your sources are wrong, it never was 1000mSv, but only 10 mSv, check today's reports) are AT THE SITE OF THE ACCIDENT. In water puddles under the reactor. Not in the air, and not outside the facility or anywhere else.. The only people that are in any danger of excessive exposure are the crew that try to fix this.
Not 240 km away in Tokyo and certainly not at the US west coast.

[Dan Winterland]

Those who are still worried can protect themselves by increasing their intake of antioxidants. Foods such as fresh green vegtables, tea and coffe are all anti-oxidants. Fruit such as berries (the darker the skin - the better) also work well. Products from these are also efficeint in combating the free radicals produced by ionizing radiation which can cause DNA damage.

Personally, I follow the advice given by the Russian Navy. The reactors on the old Soviet submarines are so leaky, the submariners are given a ration of 250ml of red wine a day!

Another glass of protection anyone?