CX Aircraft Orders

[Grinch]

HONG KONG March 9, 2011, 06:29 am ET
Cathay Pacific Airways is ordering 27 new Airbus and Boeing jets to expand services after profit tripled last year to a record.

Hong Kong's biggest airline said Wednesday it signed a deal with Airbus SAS for 15 A330-300 airplanes and another with Boeing Co. for 10 777-300ER jets. Cathay has also agreed to lease two Airbus A350-900s from International Lease Finance Corp. — adding this jet to its fleet for the first time.

The airline said the 27 jets are worth 51 billion Hong Kong dollars ($6.5 billion) at sticker prices but it's getting a big discount, a common practice in such deals.

The new jets will allow Cathay to continue expanding its passenger routes as well as help the airline save on fuel, its biggest cost, by retiring older, thirstier jets.

Cathay's Airbus A330-300s are primarily used on routes to Australia, India and other countries in Asia while its Boeing 777-300ER jets are mainly used on long-haul routes. All will be delivered by the end of 2015.

The announcement follows the airline's biggest ever order announced in September, for 36 aircraft, including 30 from Airbus and six from Boeing.

The airline is in talks to buy 14 more aircraft, but did not give any more details.


HK's Cathay Adds 27 Boeing, Airbus Jets To Fleet : NPR (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=134381816)

Excerpt from
CX announces 2010 annual results, record profit of HK$14b
Posted On: 09 Mar 2011


In 2010 we took delivery of seven new aircraft. In August 2010 we announced our biggest-ever aircraft order, of 30 Airbus A350-900s (to be delivered between 2016 and 2019) and of six more Boeing 777-300ERs. In December, a further two Airbus A350-900s were ordered. In March 2011, Cathay Pacific announced the acquisition of 15 new Airbus A330-300 aircraft and 10 new Boeing 777-300ER aircraft. Cathay Pacific is also in discussions which could result in the acquisition of 14 further aircraft. Unfortunately, there will be a delay in the delivery of our new-generation Boeing 747-8F freighters, with the first now scheduled to arrive in August 2011.

[ron burgandy]

Dick says the additional 15 A330 aircraft to be delivered 2016-2019.
CCD says the 15 new A330 will be delivered between 2013 and 2015.
Guess the training plan might be revised more than the usual 20 times per work with this kind of coordination:rolleyes:

[flynhigh]

And the net gain is? they are replacing older aircraft 1 per 1 with these orders.

[boocs]

Hi Flyinhigh,

I'm not privy to CX's future fleet disposal plans, but with 91 a/c on order and according to this article (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2011/03/09/354101/cathay-pacific-orders-27-widebodies.html) only 32 a/c being retired (-400's and 340's) doesn't that make a surplus of 59?

Thanks,
b.

[flynhigh]

Thanks boocs
I just wasn't sure how many were going to go to Air China or other airlines..or if they were going to park some of the older A330/B777....but thanks again....

[SMOC]

By 2016 the early A330s and 777s must be 20yrs old, what age will they start disposing of them? One for one as the A350s arrive?

[crwjerk]

Why are they getting more 330's??? Isn't it time the Boeing went to AUS???? hahahaha.........

[Sqwak7700]

Don't assume the A330s are for Cathay either. I would expect at least a 50/50 split with KA. After all, they have already said they want KA to fly larger aircraft into China.

[boocs]

Squawk,

I like your optimism (glass half full man I see)... but in reality I would think any 330's going to KA would already be operating with CX b4 being repainted.

b.

[geh065]

Boocs,

Same difference really, whether CX operate the new planes or not. We already have/will have six A330s transferred to KA. I am sure there will be plenty more.

[Sqwak7700]

What can I say Boocs, maybe I've been here too long.;)

But just going on what we've heard. Cathay has already said they want bigger aircraft to China, and this really falls in their court. Couple that to the drastic growth planned by Chinese carriers and KA is gonna need bigger frames to compete. HKG is slot restricted and Chinese airspace is not getting any bigger yet.

[crewsunite]

By 2019
Total Gain 91 On order +14 B744-8I = 105

Retire or Move to JV/AH
Total Loss of 64 by 2019
22 B744+12 B744BCF (JV/AH) +11 More than the 4 going this year thus (15) A340+ 5 B777-200+10 A330 6 retire & 4 move to K)

NET GROWTH by 1019 = 41 A/c

A more B744-8F also arrive but only to replace the B744F.
(The majority of growth on Freighter will be at JV and very small amount Net at CX & AH)

By the new decade CX aim only to have
B777ERF
B747-8 i & F, ERF
A330
A350

All the old freighters will go to JV/HK

By 2019 Chek Lap Kok can only handle Max 68 planes per Hr currently 50
That's a 36% increase.
Winston we have a problem this is impossible, there is not enough capacity for HKA.
(Yes, HNA are surely using HKA as a route to buy planes 2 bypass import regulations)

Because =

Currently CX have about 30% Market share & HKA a 3%.

CX NET growth 41/128 = 32%
HKA Plans to increase 131/ 14 Currently = 900% increase (See Below)

If so that means MS will stay roughly the same for CX. While @ HKA it will increase to about 18%. That means neg grow or no growth of all the other Carriers in VHHH.
They will all to lose MS to HKA. So CX has been realistic to only grow by 41a/c & smart to get the those planes here before HKA. (by 2015) Slots will be getting full by then and thus any newer planes will only be replacements.

Yes Dick has made a typo A330/B777 are all coming ASAP before 2015 to take up slots before HKA. (Read Financial announcements on Cx Investor web)

CX is now in a race with HNA / HKA to fill up VHHH slots! Also elsewhere see CDG - AMS shuttle.
CX's A350 will start to arrive in 2015 and flood in 2016 ,2017 while HKA will only arrive in 2018. It'll be a tough race as HNA has big bucks & politics behind it. It owns alot of airports and is now buying 10% of BAA.

Air China and CX are looking for more share swaps. Now CX have 20% of AC, & AC 30% of CX. See this change to 40-50% in the next 2 years.

Swire knows its make or break time. They had been aiming for share swaps this week had it not been for ME problem driving share prices down.
They need to do it ASAP for even greater protection. (In many area's not only in the labour courts) Tony's is their Man & his move to IATA has been a "very very "wise one for swire and is not by accident!

This is China's Decade in aviation & Swire are going to ride it. Don't work for nothing guys.
There will be plenty of opportunity in your home countries as well. This is the land of gold & Honey. Come but only with your hands open!

As for CMD's

Refer to new post on Page 3.!!!!

I have seen all the figures!

The only things that change will CMD times are "basings". Many F/O's will stay permanent F/O's so as to remain on a base.

So if u r young & bold move ship to your home country when you can. Or why not join HKA to get some CMD experience 1st.

Make life work for you don't sit back and let let life unfold like a lucky packet. We are not in the ME "Inshalla"! Also join the AoA and Committee & lobby for what is deserved.

Good luck!

China's HNA Group has ordered 38 Boeing passenger aircraft for its unit Hong Kong Airlines.
HKA has now ordered a total 33 twin-aisle aircraft from Airbus, comprising 18 A330s and 15 A350s. The carrier also has 30 single-aisle A320 aircraft on firm order for future delivery.

[boocs]

Crews,

A very interesting read. Thanks for your insight!!

b.

[I'mbatman]

Crews,

Based on a 2010 sampling of retirements at CX, between now and End of 2019, CX will retire 224 pilots if everyone goes to 65. Slightly under 9% of the entire pilot group.

By comparison, Delta(and many of the US legacies) will lose 3005, slightly over 25% in that same time span.

Cathay will lose 50% of its current pilots by roughly 2033. DAL will lose 50% by 2024.

The lists in the US may seem large enough to intimidate but its all about percentages boys and the numbers don't lie.

[711]

Hey Crews,
how did you come to the figure of 500(!) retirements till 2019 pls?

[AAIGUY]

CREWSUNITE,

Very well written, but you assume HKA is actually run as an airline.
Its very much not. Its managed by an ever changing cast of losers that last about 8-12 months, have no direction, and little experience.

There is not, nor has there ever been an approved upgrade course with HKCAD.

More importantly, whenever anyone actually useful gets in, ie the last Ex KA TRE, they are met with insolence, mistrust, and a overriding lack of respect.
Hence they leave within a month and HKA is worse off than before they began the exercise.

HKA could be great.
Once they get a proper WESTERN management team AND the Hainan groups actually listens to them.

Which is gonna happen around never..

[Captain Biggles84]

Any ideas on when they may (if ever) open the doors again for DE entry s/o's or DE f/o's with all the orders just announced. Or have they got a long list of kids with cheques in hand to keep things quiet still?

[arse]

Biggles

IMHO; they are pitching the offer as low as they think will attract people. Plan A got bugger all! Plan B may get a few more, but exactly how many is yet to be determined. Plan C might include offering DEFO positions with a commutting package; but the devil would be in the detail.

[dkul]

CREWSUNITE.....
very well written and very interesting. Just one question...you mention 14 748I's....is that speculation/good guess about the planes still being negotiated for or did I miss an announcement?

[crewsunite]

Hi Guys I'm so sorry. After having written my post, i was confused as i had previously worked out much worse upgrade time. I found I had made a big mistake in my figures. I had used a wrong sum. etc

Anyway I could not edit the post due maybe to Earthquake in JPN website unable to load.. Sorry for delay..

On a layover with write again once home..

Basically its 219 due retire by 2019 not 500. The figures from crew direct. Go to profile see date of birth.. takes a long time but only reliable way to know the truth.

747-8i = A bit of info from a few different sources. Plus some clever questioning from high level managers & reading from many sources, & common sense.. Plus one main other i won't say..

If 8F is a good plane its a done deal.

anyway its all about ATK! & Yields! Huge profits result, the new planes are very efficient. And big tax right offs. The current A380 does not fit that mold.

For info ave plane uses $300 million fuel per year. If that is a B777 we save about $50mill. If we have 46 of them that's $2.3bill per year enough to buy a new one in savings. and they can be written off in 4yrs, then sold to a "swire" leasing co for a few dollars and leased back at inflated prices for 20yrs (Long term = return on investment for Swire. Boeing's last!) making huge $ for swire and still saving Cx money..

These guys are not good a middle management but they sure now how to milk a cash cow. But now need to fight HKE which will be a good one to watch..

Loads of politics coming expect more integration with Air China in the medium term.

But stay focused on the big picture and join the Union and fight the major changes head on.. Prepare yourself.

DESO will start again this year is my guess.. They are very short on S/O's

But if joining expect 20yrs to CMD. This is not a career airline it used to be.

chat later..

[SloppyJoe]

If they start DESO again on full expat package have they not opened a can of worms by hiring expat "cadets" on a short course in ADL. How can they explain that as far as the racial discrimination goes? Contracts before 09 are safe but to hire new guys as DESO would be very hard if it is not also offered to everyone. If they had continued to hire guys with experience as there were none from Hong Kong on expat packages I expect they could continue to do that but surely now they class someone with an ATPL and 1500hrs as a cadet it is a non starter. Hopefully they are still finding it incredibly hard to find people and the package will be raised once more for everyone on local terms. The closer if not identical to expat terms the better for everyone.

[boocs]

'Market Forces' I believe is the term Mr.Tyler used....... Time will tell.
b.

[404 Titan]

SloppyJoe

As I have repeatedly said on other threads, the RDO doesn’t apply to different COS if it is based on recruitment stream. Cadets aren’t employed based on their race. Even under the old scheme they weren’t employed based on their race but on their right to live and work in Hong Kong. As race wasn’t a determining factor in employment the RDO doesn’t apply.

[SloppyJoe]

So I assume all the "cadets" that have a CPL/IR with over 1000hrs would be entitled to expat terms if CX start DESO again. How are they another recruitment stream? Because CX says they are cadets? I expect that's the case as this is Hong Kong.

[404 Titan]

SloppyJoe

In a nut shell, No. In the eyes of CX, their recruitment stream was via the iCad fast stream not DE. As I have said CX is hiding behind the RDO to suite their own corporate direction of not offering full expat terms to new recruits. It is a wrong interpretation of the RDO by both CX and the AOA to believe expat terms can not be paid to new expat employees who bring skills and experience to Hong Kong that isn’t readily available from the local population.

Having said that though I believe it would only be fair for the company to offer full expat terms to fast track iCads if they should decide at a late date to reintroduce DESO’s on full expat terms.

[crwjerk]

Most direct entry S/O's came with at least 2 or 3 thousand hours, so , how can a 1000 hour iCadet claim to be worthy of such an entry route??? ( requirement has always been minimum 1500 hours) and that was a bare minimum.

[404 Titan]

crwjerk

Actually the minimum for DESO was only 1000 hours. The reality though as you state most had 2-3000 hours.

[sioux115]

Having said that though I believe it would only be fair for the company to offer full expat terms to fast track iCads if they should decide at a late date to reintroduce DESO’s on full expat terms.

That brings up a question, what happens to the current cadets? Do they now get the new allowances, or do they just stay on their original terms? What the hell is this Second Officer Transition Training? A different term for iCadet?:ugh:

[404 Titan]

sioux115

All cadets will be offered the new terms and conditions.

[Captian Desi]

All iCadets should be offered the new terms ( full expat package ) if and only if that is what is introduced. If CX does not give the new package to everyone there will be a at-least 100+ SO's who will be very very unhappy and then you might see a lot of them leave for greener pastures ( a catch 22 ) if they don't offer it , many will leave and then again the SO shortage shall prevail. :D

[eggraid]

Crewsunite

You stated that by by 2019 there were 219 due to retire. Thanks for working that out on Crew Direct. 2019 is only 8 years from now so one can assume that if everyone of these retirements goes to 65 that there are currently 219 that are over 55 today? Correct me if I'm wrong, but if this is the case then there should be approximately 219 or more triggering bypass pay for senior FO/SOs on COS 99. Do you know how many are currently getting bypass pay? I have heard that the company is paying senior FOs bypass pay accordingly (we know the trick with not assessing SOs, sorry guys), but is there someone out there (AOA) actually checking the numbers and keeping them honest? Thanks

[The Wraith]

DESO, 2 to 3000 hours? Try 8000hrs plus...!:ugh:

[boxjockey]

I know of a lot of SOs who joined with over 5000 hours, and I would say the average was better than 4000.

box

[raven11]

People. Hours alone don't paint the whole picture of the type of candidate Cathay has hired in recent years, or the type of pilot they are seeking now.

There is no doubt that in the A scale days, and in the early B scale days, the benefits offered by Cathay were so good, that the package spoke for itself and attracted every experienced pilot on the planet. Cathay still wanted to maintain and sell the perception of their highly "experienced" cockpit. Like it or not, and I know this gets up the nose of many on this forum, Cathay could...and did...pick and choose very carefully.

Over the years the package was watered down, and watered down some more. To the point where so called "experienced" direct entry F/O's hired over the past few years took significantly more training...and retraining...than expected. That didn't dissuade Cathay from its belief that they could pay peanuts and still get pilots. The quality or experience level was no longer an issue or overriding factor in the selection…cost was!

So Cathay has come up with a new package, one they hope will cast the biggest net possible, that caters to any pilot out there, and ....as incredible as it may be, this includes pilots with no pilot training at all!

If you have no experience or pilot training at all, no problem please sign here and you only need to pay back the entire $1,000,000 “forgivable” loan. If you have a couple of hundred hours then you get to keep a portion of the “forgivable" loan. And should you just happen to be an "experienced pilot", the only kind Cathay used to hire, well then you can keep the whole loan.

The bottom line (pardon the pun) is that anyone can now join. Today, you only need to pass a series of HR interviews. Traditional pilot experience, or hours…mean nothing. The accountants win again……it's really too bad.


Compare this situation to the one in place twenty years ago and then tell me our Cockpit product is the same?

[climbout]

Raven 11: Experience doesn't say too much about quality, LH,BA,AF do strict Selection Tests, train their pilots , and put them on B737/A 320 with min hours, it's mainly the Attitude of pilots ! ...Thats one of the Problems in CX, when they hired experienced pilots in their early days , when no testing in CRM took place !!

[Kontract Killer]

Raven11:

So by your own definition - A scale and a small minority of B scale pilots are the 'best of the best'?

Spoken like a true A scale w****r my friend!

Just because a company USED to make you think you are special, certainly does not mean that you are. I hope the traveling public are now aware of how thin the safety margins have become, flying with crews of B and C scale quality.

The current management now consider you and the lofty opinions of your experience as a temporary necessary annoyance and nothing else. The only attitudinal concerns they have is whether or not you will extend beyond 55 on a lower scale and save them money. How the high and mighty have fallen!

Good for you having been born more than half a century ago and been in the right place and the right time to get an A scale contract but to imply your superiority because of it says it all perfectly and describes in a nutshell why any aspiring young and obviously less than capable aviator should avoid this company like SARS.

You need to stop watching Top Gun, over and over and over again :suspect:

[badairsucker]

KK,


Good post my friend. Raven is a legend in his own lunch break...Wow, how I wish I was as great as him.:ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh:

[raven11]

Climb Out:

I hear what you're saying mate, but do you really think that CRM is the most important thing when it comes to hiring pilots?

Kontract Killer....."The current management now consider you and the lofty opinions of your experience as a temporary necessary annoyance and nothing else".

KK, after reading your post a couple of times I have to admit that it is a well written account of things (all except me being at the right place at the right time, watching Top Gun over and over, and being an A scale w****r).

I remember feeling very much the same as you about the senior Cathay pilots I flew with. I spent 10 years here as an F/O, and much of what you say is true. But I think I'd rather fly with an experienced "jerk" than with an inexperienced "nice guy" any day. So would the passengers. In any case, I hope you're glad you got that off your chest?

Badair...I read your post too, and in reply....I'll bet you "wish" you really were...

I may suffer from delusions of my own...but unlike KK, you remain boring and predictable.

[Traffic]

Company reckons they can run a single pilot IFR system until the experience runs out...tick tack tock.

Just as Jetstar is about find out and most regionals in the US already know...monkeys can fly aeroplanes but not without more bananas and more sleep spent in a decent bed.

The only thing the actuarial nimrods understand is body bag count. The problem is that by the time this happens it is too late.

[crwjerk]

Raven

Compare this situation to the one in place twenty years ago and then tell me our Cockpit product is the same?

I don't think you are pushing the "A -scalers are better than everyone else" idea as much as the others say....
Having said that...... The cockpit product is not the same these days. I would tend to think that after :

- 2nd officer how goes it interview
- 2nd officer upgrade interview
- 40 sectors of LFUS
- JFO Line check
- 6 months of FC's
- QL check
- Relief Check
- PCA
- Board reviews
- Handling Sims
- N1 Sim
- Countless other sims.........

You would expect the product to be somewhat better than it was in the past, wouldn't you???

[bm330]

Dont get confused between training and experience. Cadet/low time SO inductees will never gain the same level of experience that high time GA or Military pilots have. All the fancy training vehicles that have been dreamed up over the past number of years are an attempt to cover the fact that the baseline has significantly dipped. This is not unique to CX. The cost of entering this wonderful profession has skyrocketed from what it was 20 years ago and less and less kids are chosing aviation because of it.

Talk to any ex-military or higher time GA pilot and he'll recount numerous stories where "by the grace of god", I survived that particular incident. Cadet experience is that last 5 miles - established on the ILS - fighting off that dastardly variable crosswind.

[raven11]

Crwjerk

To answer your question: No.

Do you really need me to explain the difference between thousands of hours of previous experience and 40 sectors of LUFUS.....do you?

Read bm330's post.

[badairsucker]

Raven,

People. Hours alone don't paint the whole picture of the type of candidate Cathay has hired in recent years, or the type of pilot they are seeking now.

There is no doubt that in the A scale days, and in the early B scale days, the benefits offered by Cathay were so good, that the package spoke for itself and attracted every experienced pilot on the planet.


Ok Raven, as I am not in the group of people deemed good enough to join CX I thought I would reply to your posts. I joined, shall we say MID B scale in 2001 and as a S/O. I had many thousands of hours ranging from Chipmunks, piper malibu, L29 Delfin, L39 Albatros, Lears 35 and 45. As I am deemed inexperienced according to you I would like to know what sort of experience you would like to see my generation of employees having.

You also stated that hours alone don't paint the whole picture. Well what type of candidate should we be employing? You smell of ex military and your train of thought is still firmly still in the military. If you are ex military then were you not employed wet behind the ears young rookie pilot and trained up to operate an aircraft in a certain environment, then what is the difference of CX employing a wet behind the ears rookie pilot and training him/her upto a standard to operate a CX aircraft in a relevant environment.

We all had to start somewhere and today it is common for airlines/military to take on zero hour guys and train them up, you just don't seem to accept it. I think your time would be better spent tackling this with the bean counters and management rather than trying to belittle and have a far superior attitude towards fellow pilots.

So tell us, what is your problem????

[betpump5]

badairsucker,

It actually smells more like Raven is either,1. An A-scaler who is crying into his beer in Wanchai because he is no longer entitled to payrises or 2. An ex-A scaler who wished he never took the B-Scale package.

Whatever it is, the smell in the -400 cockpits these days is sickening. I wish, along with the retirement of the ageing fleet, they would also get rid of these ex-RAF old-timers at the same time. Best of the Best? More like Best of the worst.

Talk to any ex-military or higher time GA pilot and he'll recount numerous stories where "by the grace of god", I survived that particular incident.The above quote is exactly how NOT to be a pilot. This is absolutely the worst attitude you can get in a pilot and also the most dangerous one. These type of pilots have no place in this industry. Shall I conclude from this statement that we want to be hiring pilots who have learned to throw the rule-book out the window and who operate on a wing and a prayer? F-me :=

[raven11]

Bad Air

Your previous experience is excellent. Are you suggesting that this hard earned experience is worth nothing? I’m certainly not suggesting it. Good for you Badair….I mean it..good for you.


If I smell ex-military, that’s because I am….and I’ve always been proud of that….do I need to apologize for this experience? I also flew commercially for five years prior to joining Cathay. So I’ve seen both systems…..I guess I swing both ways. I can tell you that both systems have their good points and bad; both systems produce excellent pilots. But let’s not sell ourselves short is the point I’m trying to make. That, just like any other profession, it takes time to learn the ropes and produce an experienced pilot.


I don’t think experienced pilots are more superior to ex cadets. We all need to start somewhere, and ex cadets will someday be the experienced pilots. I have flown with many ex cadet Captains in Cathay, and I have been very impressed. The Cathay system has produced some very good skippers.


When it comes to hiring new pilots, however, I just happen to think that experienced pilots are….how shall I put it…more experienced. Do we seriously need to debate the merits of experienced/no experience? Are the bean counters right? Are 300 hours the same as 5000 hours?


Betpump….well….some very angry words coming from you my young friend. The topic of flying experience gets under your skin and brings out the keyboard warrior in you? In fact, the ex-RAF old timers really get up your nose? To you, they stink and are sickening to fly with…the Company should cleanse themselves of the lot! What was it you called them…the best of the worst? Oh, how cerebral and objective you seem. Must have had a good laugh when you pressed send….


Your over heated post speaks volumes. Your temper and angry words are not characteristics that lend themselves to good CRM. It would appear that you have a chip on your shoulder…..something to prove…..and that Betpump is the type of attitude that does not belong in a cockpit.


However, I do agree with sentiment expressed in the last word of your post.

[crewsunite]

Following on from my previous post on PG1 (Net gain A/c in CX)
Sorry about the mistake! At least Dick makes some as well.

Right now as we speak airlines are hiring all over.

Ryan Air - have just lost 260 in Dec and another 250 are giving notice. Virgin & BA are having problems finding experienced crew on type.

The ME is very short at Mo & many are not allowed to take leave.

Cathay are dreaming when they think they can fill the plug with cadets. They are 160 short at present and this will go up rapidly.
I hear next year that will be tipple.

DE pilots have two happen and very fast!

Those joining CX as Cadets be warned P2X counts nothing if you apply for a job else where. Do cannot legally opp-orate the heading knob in cruise, how sad is that really!:eek: You'll be making the beds for 5yrs & waiting + 20yrs for CMD. Let alone live in a box forever...
Your F/O upgrade will be stepped on by DEFO either on full Expat terms or on a base. (later most likely)

To get enough experience to move you'd need to wait at least 6yrs.
Be carefull of being CX's slave for 6yrs just to get free training etc.
Or at least leave within 6months of joining to get a GA job or pay for a 320 /737 rating to go ME etc..

As a DE pilot in HK at least u can get full expat benefits. But then u risk not being able to go on a base for a very long time. (no at all at the mo)

Why don't u join BA if u have experience, or Ryan air if u don't then jump to ME for a few yrs..

IMHO - wait and only join CX if u have too at a Expat pilot level or on a base but beware funny things are happening & will continue to happen here.

Ok CMD's Times:}

NET GROWTH by 2020 = 41 A/c (say 50) to be optimistic)

By 2020 there will be 229 Cpt retiring & 50*7.5 =375 total new slots about 600 slots in the next 10 years. About 60 a year on ave min. (fast 4 next 4 yrs then abit slower after)

So currently CMD @ Snr no. 930 + 600 = 1530 then sadly it will slow to about 50-70 per year until 2030 after as it a very young airline & very little growth will happen in 2020-2030 until the new Runway is made as slots will be full. New Airport can only be complete by 2030 earliest I'm told by an engineer involved. If done at all.
No people reaching 65yrs in each year. Fact.
Retire Year 2011 5 2012 8 2013 11 2014 12 2015 20 2016 27 2017 20 2018 24 2019 44 2020 58 2021 53 2022 51 2023 58 2024 57 2025 58 2026 47 2027 70 2028 62 2029 73 2030 76
Very interestingly this number will suddenly increases to about 150 retiring per year after 2030 with a new runway coming and more expansion there will be a sudden need for Captains & pilots again. So those on Cos99 expect Cx to beg you to reconsider working to 65.

Just for info 12 CMD have left from Jan 10 - Jan 11.


Basically if you seniority number is X & less than expect CMD in yr Y
1100 2012
1300 2015
1500 2020
1700 2024
1900 2027
2100 2030
2300 2032
2500 2033

So expect CMD time will be 13-14 yrs till mid decade then to extend to +-18 yrs until 2020 then 20+ yrs until 2030.

Now this is based on Net gain a 50 A/c by 2020 and 2% growth in 20's and 4% growth in 30's. And everyone working to 65.

Some smart & not so smart folks may leave earlier. But I highly doubt more a/c "can" come. If HKA are successful the growth will be less thus longer wait to CMD. If they are not CMD could be much "worse" because they'll try to do Direct entry CMD again.

The main driver that will effect CMD in HK at the moment, is outsourcing cargo to AHK & JV. Also F/O's on the base not wanting to come to HK and remain on the base my guess is about 15%.
About 8% of F/O's will be Cat B,D. +- 10% will leave prior to 65. Thus expect things for HK based F/O's to improve by about 30% in the short term.

Anyway the main problem here is the courts will get worse in HK as the Chinese (AC) take more of a major stake in CX. At present no basis are available to get your home country protection. HK based pilots risk reducing expat terms & hyper inflation & really bad rosters to come.I heard that Cx aim to roster everyone to 90 hrs is the new target. Do that and only 6wks a yr life gets pretty dull.

Bottom line if you came here to have a good life on ULH with plenty of time off & disposable income and quick time to CMD. Forget it!! :\

Why not use the current shortage worldwide of pilots to get a good job in your home country. Or get quick CMD time with HKA or ME then go home. But becarefull of CX as this flashy aircraft order of 91 a/c will only benefit those that joined from 2000-2005. (about 700 pilots)

Do u really want to be a cruise pilot making beds & doing radio work & not being able to touch anything for 4+ yrs on empty promises of quick upgrade time. Only to go home to a depressive box eating cheap food and only getting 21 days leave a yr. (as an S/O) and having no temp or permanent bases)

Good luck to you but be warned..

That's it from me until next month..

[crewsunite]

Chinabeach = Well said indeed.. !!

Flashy new Jet's lets go!! Why not enjoy a few years in GA guys and in the mean time look for a better job.

This Loan thing is a big unknown. I heard of a 49' whom had his HSBC bank account frozen. (Swire can do funny things becarefull they are pirates) Just ask those instructors in ADL whom where promised Expat terms in return for 4 yrs instruction.. That's all gone. These guys take great pleasure in not sticking to their word.

The middle managers make loads (bonuses) from being bad guys because those above them don't pay them well enough otherwise.

We could write a book or three infact start by reading John's..

Chinabeach = Wrote...

Also on hold since 2008.

I have many friends at CX and have all the CoS paperwork to compare what they are offering us against what we were told we would be offered. In a nutshell, it's about 1/3 of the package we should have been offered.

The devil is in the details. The housing allowance: not marked against fluctuations in the housing market in HKG as the others have. The "forgivable loan"... Now would you take out ANY loan without knowing the entire [legal] details? Is it taxable? Is it paid in full or month by month for how long? Is it paid in cash? Too many variables and to me it's code for "bond" that is illegal in HKG hence tarted up to be different. In the pre-interview presentation we were told that CX offer the (original) housing allowance as they firmly believe expats coming to HK should not suffer a loss of lifestyle in their move. Seems they don't quite believe that anymore. Funny how a record breaking profit can change opinions.

And the interview: So we have to reinterview to a far, FAR higher standard than these CEP's did only to be sat next them in ADL for 3 months? A rule for them and a rule for us? And did the CEPS have to fly a 747 Classic on raw data, no FD's or AT from Kai Tak, following the backcourse, OEI procedures, etc, etc. The DESO's of yesterday went to AD for approx 28 days, even those without ATP's / ATPL's but now "we" need 3 months?

And what of seniority? We'll have a number lower than a kid with ZERO flying hours. Potentially never getting a Cmd (depending on your age of course. Latest AOA figures suggest 18-25 years from memory, ie the AOA updates my friends send me. Correct me if I'm wrong). How does that make you feel?

$35,170 per month is dependent on flying (loose term) 84 hrs a month. My understanding is that you will very, very rarely make beds or eat sandwiches this much as SO: typically 70 hrs a month. (Someone confirm? This is what my friends tell me). So for every hour worked under 84 hrs per month = $3,517 LESS per month from $35,170. Now....reduce that again by a ballpark 15% for tax. Buy an apartment then the housing allowance just became taxable as well.

"Discretionary Bonus" of 13th month pay became the norm when management decided that the 13th month bonus was interpreted by them as a pay rise and hence they were not obliged to pay it: and so they didn't and won't if at their "discretion" they don't feel like it. The AOA fought this and lost. BUT! If you are in management then you'll receive a bonus even when you are caught for price fixing or screwing up the fuel hedging costing the airline MILLIONS. Go figure. Check out other threads on the bonuses these guys give themselves.

Those in upper management making these decisions have ruined a once great, once the best airline in the world. Legacy? Wow... they'll receive HUGE bonuses for what they've done. How proud they must be to destroy something that was regarded as so great. If you've seen what CX has become over the past 3-5 years then you'll know what they are capable of.

The HR team have been nothing but absolutely pleasure to deal with over the last (very nearly!) 3 years. Thank you.

We each must make our own decision. Trust me there are FAR better jobs out there if you search. We deserve what we interviewed for. Anything less is an insult.

For me, it's a DEFINITE NO WAY. It's not the money. It's the integrity of the once great airline that has no integrity what's so ever to have treated us & it's present pilot body the way they have. I've worked too hard to be treated like this. I won't be wasting their time or mine to sit in a Godforsaken uncomfortable as hell A330 Y class bucket seat for xx hours to be told my value as a pilot is worth only 30% of what it was (nearly) 3 years ago. After all, this is aviation and there'll be a kid praying I don't take the offer so he/she can do it for less anyway.

Pay bananas you get monkeys.

[711]

Thanks for the numbers! Great post.
Finally a substantial argument for the sad reality in Cathay :

RA 65 = no commands for a veeeeeery long time

[Captain Dart]

My bet is on RA 70 or even 'on condition' before the decade is out.

[Flaps10]

Please Daddy can I have one???? (or 14?)

Boeing 747-8 jumbo jet unveiled | Photos (http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/travel/boeing-new-jumbo-makes-first-flight/20090505-atod.html?selectedImage=0)

[SkyScanner]

How many pilots do CX have right now?

[Captain Dart]

Not enough judging by recent roster disruptions.

[MRGTC]

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