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surfside6
8th Mar 2011, 00:07
Qantas, Shanghai-Paris? China Eastern, Cairns-Sydney?
March 8, 2011 – 9:39 am, by Ben Sandilands There are some awesome implications in this morning’s announcement of a new memorandum of agreement between Australia and China on increased flights.

The headline figure in the release from Transport Minister Anthony Albanese is a 50 per cent rise in available seats between Australia and China using direct flights (ie, not including Hong Kong, Singapore or Seoul for example) from 14,500 per week now to 22,500 from next February.

However the breakthrough points are the offer of additional capacity within Australia to China carriers if they include stop overs in regional destinations including Cairns, Darwin and Broome.

Clarification as to whether this means domestic cabotage, that is, a China carrier like China Eastern or China Southern could compete with Jetstar between Cairns and Melbourne, or whether it means their passengers no longer have to buy a fare on an Australian airline to include such a stopover is being sought from Albanese’s office, and this item will be edited accordingly when that information is available.

The second breakthrough point is however a major plus for Australian carriers serving China now or in the future, in that it would allow them to fly beyond China to four additional destinations of their own choosing.

This raises the possibility of Qantas choosing to offer flights between Shanghai and, say, London, Paris, Amsterdam or New York, something of considerable strategic importance as the China market, and Australia’s connections to it continue to grow.

This is the statement issued in Canberra:

to 8,000 extra seats per week will be made available to the airlines of both Australia and China following the signing of a new Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) – a move which will deliver a major boost to our domestic tourism industry as well as give Australian travellers greater choice and more competitive airfares.

Compared to the old cap of 14,500 seats per week between Australia’s major gateway airports and China, the airlines of both countries will immediately be able to offer up to 18,500 seats, and from February 2012, 22,500 seats – an increase of more than 50 per cent.

Most significantly, the new MOU allows airlines to offer even more seats (up to 2,500 per week) on routes into and out of Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth as long as those additional flights make stopovers at a regional airport such as Cairns, Broome or Darwin.

Australian carriers will now also be able to fly to China via an extra four intermediate points and to operate services beyond China to four more destinations of their choosing.

China is our fastest growing aviation market, with its airlines already operating at full capacity under the previous air services MOU.

The new MOU is also good news for Australian exporters as it maintains open capacity limits on the movement of freight into and out of China.

Last year, more than 1.7 million people travelled between Australia and China – an increase of 21 per cent on the previous year (2009).

Indeed the value of Chinese tourism to our economy already exceeds $3.1 billion, a figure that’s only like to grow significantly in the line with the expected doubling in number of Chinese tourists by 2020.

Significantly, our new MOU with China contains a shared commitment to negotiating an ‘open skies’ agreement, an outcome that would remove most – if not all – of the limitations on Australian and Chinese airlines operating between and beyond our two countries.
There are several things that give context to this morning’s announcement. Qantas enjoys precisely the same privileges for carrying its own passengers between Los Angeles and New York City that this announcement appears to offer China’s carriers between regional Australian cities and its major capitals.

And Broome has a tourism potential that is currently crippled by inadequate border control resources, and a runway useless for operations by larger wide bodied jets over any useful distance.

But the statement is recognition of the rapid rise of the China air travel market toward global leadership, something dealt with in yesterday’s release of the latest Airbus market outlook for the region.

Asia-Pacific to lead demand for new aircraft over next 20 years

Requirement for 8,560 new aircraft valued at $1.2 trillion

Asia-Pacific airlines are expected to take delivery of around 8,560 new aircraft over the next 20 years, according to European aircraft manufacturer Airbus. Valued at US$1.2 trillion, the requirement represents 33 per cent of new aircraft deliveries worldwide over the forecast period, with the region overtaking North America and Europe as the largest air transport market.

The latest forecast for the region was presented in Hong Kong today by Chris Emerson, Senior Vice President Product Strategy and Market Forecast.

The Airbus forecast is based on stronger than average growth in both passenger and freight traffic in the region, combined with replacement of many of the existing aircraft in service. In terms of growth, Airbus expects the number of passengers carried by Asia-Pacific airlines to rise by 5.8 per cent per year while the amount of freight passing through the region will increase by 7.0 per cent annually. This compares with global average increases of 4.8 per cent in the passenger market and 5.9 per cent for cargo. At the same time, carriers in the region are expected to replace 78 per cent of the 3,680 aircraft currently in service, ensuring that they continue to operate some of the youngest and most eco-efficient fleets in the world.

Airbus predicts that the region will continue to drive demand for larger aircraft types, reflecting the concentration of populations in the region around the main urban centres and the need for more seats between fast-growing mega-cities. As a result, carriers in the region will acquire around 3,360 new widebody aircraft over the next two decades. This represents 40 per cent of all widebody deliveries worldwide and includes some 780 very large aircraft such as the A380 and around 2,580 twin aisle widebodies such as the A330 and new A350 XWB.

Although a predominantly widebody market, demand for single aisle aircraft in the region is expected to accelerate in the coming years, with a requirement for some 5,200 new airliners in the 100 – 210 seat category, such as the best-selling A320 Family. The increase will be driven primarily by the growth of low cost carriers , as well as the opening of new secondary short haul routes, especially in China, India and South East Asia.
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ozbiggles
8th Mar 2011, 00:14
No, but Jetstar will be happy:E
Whoops my mistake Jetstar Asia will be happy.....

dragon man
8th Mar 2011, 01:05
That could well see the 400 doing daily Sydney/Shangai/Paris that Joyce alluded to in an interview last year.

Mr. Hat
8th Mar 2011, 03:07
An optimistic title to the thread.

It will be a Jetstar growth and with that a plethora of other opportunities for BB AJ and co to find other ways to circumvent EBA's and offshore Australian Flying. In their eyes we're inconveniently expensive.

Will VB step up to the plate and announce an Asian strategy or will they let Jetstar run out of the stadium with ball in hand? Time will tell.

Interestingly enough there is a mention of regional ports. Has the minister landed in Broome or Port Headland before? Woeful 2nd world facilities. BM has a runway that should be used for suspension tests on NRMA exams for new cars. It also has some of the most expensive landing fees of any regional airport in Oz (invested in facilities no doubt). International only in name. The other? PD, a 1960's terminal with capacity for 100 people for international (Good to see the billions of dollars in iron ore being invested there).

Albanese? First jump seats (fail) then security screening (?) now this (?).

Shark Patrol
8th Mar 2011, 03:21
Joyce expanding mainline!??? You're kidding right?????

He would have read the release and the words "Jetstar China basing" would have entered his head in about 30 seconds.

h.o.t.a.s.
8th Mar 2011, 04:52
QF management is reactionary.
(Case and point, Skybeds into Perth and abandoning 7 across business class on the 330's thanks to Virgin).

Until 'Virgin Australia' announce plans to put their full service product into this part of the world from ports other than Sydney, QF will either sit on its hands, or be salivating at the prospects of the Orange Cancer spreading further...

Sunstar320
8th Mar 2011, 06:17
Jetstar has never performed more poorly than in in China, why does BB keep bragging about the huge potential when there is none. Jetstar operates 70 flights in/out of China weekly whilst Tiger has 130.

They dont even fly to India yet.

Qanchor
8th Mar 2011, 06:53
Qantas Mainline Growth ?

Read, Qantas Group Growth

dizzylizzy
8th Mar 2011, 07:23
Regarding earlier comment of Qantas 'sitting on their hands' and doing nothing until Virgin releases their transcons product, it makes sense. If there's only little competition on a route and nothing to complete with your existing product why spend money when you don't have to?

DEFCON4
8th Mar 2011, 08:22
Qantas spends money on ....nothing.Nothing except executive bonuses.
Qantas was a great airline when it was pro active.Qantas invented J class.
Now Qantas is now a reactive also ran that is bleeding customers to other airlines.

unionist1974
8th Mar 2011, 09:56
Had an old mate ,used to work in qantas PR his name was Des . He told me BS and many other journos, where turfed out of first Class by JS when he was CEO , to cean up the cabin for genuine biz types . Reports by a lot of journos have been negative ever since. So much for independant reportng , particullary from BS

dizzylizzy
8th Mar 2011, 10:47
I see your point ABS. Maybe its the bean counting in me coming out.