New Falklands War Brewing

[Earl of Rochester]

Britain's isolation on Falklands grows with 'anti-colonial' Brazil snub - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/brazil/8251700/Britains-isolation-on-Falklands-grows-with-anti-colonial-Brazil-snub.html)

The word on the wire via emails between ex-senior officers from the UK forces is that USAN Union of South American Nations - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_of_South_American_Nations) is planning a diplomatic 'assault' on the UK (including sanctions on exports) in an effort to 'restore the Malvinas to their rightful owners.'

I doubt whether in today's socio-politicl-economic climate that any UK leader would be willing pull another 'Maggie' and chances are that if a comprehensive petition is made by the nations of South America, Britain will probably yield 'something' to the Argies.

Just goes to prove that though few Argentinians have lived on the Falklands, the outcrops still seem to be of some importance to them!

Earl

[ShyTorque]

It was only ever a matter of time.

[Fareastdriver]

As oil seems to be the catalyst I suggest the Canadians should have a go for Alaska.

[Archimedes]

Although a UN referendum on self-determination (one of, it not the, key underpinning principle(s) of these things, don't forget) would be interesting.

Govt says 'right, UN chaps - free and fair referendum, conducted under your auspices to see what the islanders want as per Article 1 of the Covenant on Civil and Political Rights'.

Referendum held - Falklanders vote to remain British. As the thing is UN-run, the Argentines have no chance of claiming that the vote has been rigged - what do they do then? Ignore self-determination principle and try to invade? Sanctions against the UK on the grounds of... what, exactly? Upholding self-determination?

It would be a potentially useful mechanism to wrong-foot the Argentines (perhaps coupled with rumours that a couple of SSNs are in the area, just in case).

And it'd save us multiple threads on here about how a carrier is the one and only way of protecting the Falklands (Pprune, passim)...

[tonker]

Cool, can the English have one whilst we are at it. :hmm:

[Earl of Rochester]

Archimedes I like your approach but I think that all this will do is buy time.

The Argies will reject such a referendum based on their belief that Falkland Islanders do not have the right to determine their destiny as they are on borrowed ground - in much the same way as the Palestenians view the Israelis.

The communications I've read point towards USAN contesting the UK's claim to the Falklands using all kinds of cultural, political and geographical arguments to support this. Technicalities currently in favour of the UK are viewed as part of the UK's colonial influence which is as wrong as the 'occupation' of the Falklands itself!

Given that regional oilex has so far been negative I wonder whether resources are the motivation?

Earl

[barry lloyd]

Falkland Islands Goverment Department of Mineral Resources - introduction page (http://www.bgs.ac.uk/falklands-oil/Introduction.htm)

[Wyler]

WWIII is a Global Economic War that has been raging for over 2 years.

This is just another front opening.

.....and we are going to lose.......

:(

[Earl of Rochester]

Desire drills another dry hole off Falklands - Oil & Gas Journal (http://www.ogj.com/index/article-display/6813110506/articles/oil-gas-journal/exploration-development-2/2010/12/desire-drills_another.html)

This is not to say that they won't discover commercial quantities of the black stuff, I'm sure they will and, when that happens is when sparks are likely to fly!

[dat581]

Maybe the UK can back the Argintine Native American's bid to have Argentinians move back to Spain. Ditto for moving Brazilians back to Portugal.:hmm:

[Thelma Viaduct]

Just tell the argies, brazilians & spams to f**k off.

Job Jobbed :ok:

[Ken Scott]

The Falklands have no indigenous people, they were uninhabited prior to their discovery & colonization, first by the British, then the Argentinians (who themselves were colonists from Spain) & then by the British who kicked the Argies out (for the first time) for settling in their land. To make the Falklands the Malvinas would simply be replacing one colonial power with another.

Therefore the only solution is to allow the right to self determination of the inhabitants, and we all know where that will go which is why the Argentinians won't allow it.

Anyway, we won the war fair & square so the islands must be ours!

[John Farley]

In WWII people were shot for sedition. :):):)

[Evanelpus]

They are ours, so jog on you Argies.

[twochai]

As oil seems to be the catalyst I suggest the Canadians should have a go for Alaska.

Why would we do that? We already have more on our side of the line and we can't properly digest what we've got?

P.S. Don't tell Sarah!

[Linedog]

It's OK. 556 is on QRA at Lyneham. :ok:

[Double Zero]

Is it possible to load a TLAM with loo roll as a warning shot ?! SSN's, your chance to shine.

IF there are any operational - this takes 'The Few' to a whole new level !

This was oh, so predictable; seem to be feeling deja vu, selling carriers, binning Harriers...Shurely Shome Mishtake...

[Agaricus bisporus]

There is no more need for a UN referendum in the Falklands than there is for one on the Isle of Wight. The legal ownership of the Islands is not in any doubt as the Argentine claim is utterly without merit. None whatever, and it's a tragedy and a shame that some British people here seem bizarely to take an opposite view and rant on about the "evils" of "colonialism", whatever they are. The evils of success I suppose.

The Argentine claim is based on a spell of just a few years of settelment and based on the universally derided and spurious basis of "first settlement", so by their own argument the Islands are actually French! (Colonial brutes!) They have been British continuously since 1833, just 60 years less than the USA has been independant, or, by the Argentine argument, illegaly stolen from Britain. Apart from Florida and Louisiana which ar French of course. Or does it all belong to the Red Indians? Or the Clovis people? Or...

Germany has about as much lawful claim over the Channel Islands, which by Argie "logic" should be handed back to the French anyway- a far stronger claim. But then we'd get most of Northern France and Burgundy...and as to central Europe that "logic" would probably produce the longest war in human history as everyone fights everyone for everywhere.

We can either acknowledge these idiotic arguments and dismantle the world sociopolitically by handing it back to the "first nations" or we can let the revisionist troublemakers know that they've come to the wrong shop for adventurous "I was there first several hundred years ago" landgrabs and get on with the important things in global politics.

Which way is progress, and which the greatest self imposed humanitarian chaos ever?

[B Fraser]

There are a few islands in the Pacific that are ours. I think they are collectively known as Hawaii. Maybe we should civilize them and introduce the natives to cricket and rugby.


;)

[knowitall]

The Brazilians aren't daft, whilst they may be willing to make noises about South American brotherhood and deny the odd port visit they are not going to risk a trade war with the UK and by extension the EU about some windswept rocks they couldn't give a damn about!


The biggest casualty here will be the loss of Jacks favorite run ashore

[racedo]

Dunno if FI residents were allowed a vote they could just as easily vote for their own self determination independent of everybody and then request support from UK.

[GeeRam]

The Brazilians aren't daft, whilst they may be willing to make noises about South American brotherhood and deny the odd port visit they are not going to risk a trade war with the UK and by extension the EU about some windswept rocks they couldn't give a damn about!

Especially if this storey is true and they do want to buy Gripens after all....... :O

Brazilian Air Force Backs Gripen In Jet Debate - Defense News (http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=4443339&c=AME&s=AIR)

[Archimedes]

There is no more need for a UN referendum in the Falklands than there is for one on the Isle of Wight. The legal ownership of the Islands is not in any doubt as the Argentine claim is utterly without merit. None whatever, and it's a tragedy and a shame that some British people here seem bizarely to take an opposite view and rant on about the "evils" of "colonialism", whatever they are. The evils of success I suppose.

If you are suggesting that I "bizarely ...take an opposite view and rant on about the "evils" of "colonialism" since I suggested the referendum of self-determination, then you couldn't be more wrong. In a previous life I was proud to be branded 'an apologist for British imperialism' in a post-module validation by the class student socialist worker activist, who objected to my contention that the Falklands were British and that the Argentines could be said to have embarked upon a war of aggression in 1982...

The point I'm making about a referendum is that despite your contention that

The legal ownership of the Islands is not in any doubt

It quite clearly is in doubt, otherwise the Argentines would not enjoy the level of support that they do from certain of their neighbours and some other states and the matter would go away. The sad fact is that simply drawing upon the outline history (once again) does nothing to deny the Argentines the ability to garner a level of support for their claim, even if it is based upon the egregious decision to downplay the fundamental right of self-determination by those supporting it.

The referendum I (hyopthetically) mooted above (which is less likely to happen than Sharkey Ward's next book is to praise Op Blackbuck), if it went the way we'd expect, would present a clear, unambiguous, UN-sponsored verdict on the Argentine claim.

Unless the UN went against its own basic premise, then a 'We're British, thanks' outcome would go a long way towards settling the matter because of what it represents (which, as Ken notes, is why the Argentines would reject any such move), removing the crutch of whatever the Spanish for 'it's colonialism, inn'it?' from the Argentines once and for all...

[Squirrel 41]

PN, I think that the furthest you could go is to call the ownership of the islands "disputed"; the Americans opt for this description

"Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas) (overseas territory of the UK; also claimed by Argentina)"

(See: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/fk.html)

The legal case would be immeasurably strengthened if there was a free and fair referendum of the inhabitants on the future of the territory. Of course Argentina will refuse to recognise the result, and claim (improbably) that if you were going to have a referendum, you'd need to include the great-great-great-great (etc etc) grandchildren of the Argentine settlers who were booted off in 1833-34 (though not all were).

But the beauty of this is would be to settle once and for the next wee while questions of popular will amongst the islanders, which does matter in the legal and political realms.

And there probably will be another war over the islands, but only if the UK denudes them of meaningful protection. AFAIK, the Argentine forces are in an even more parlous state than the UK forces. So it should be a while yet - and in the meantime, let's hope the Int boys and girls provide the necessary warning for reinforcement.

S41

[Kengineer-130]

It's ok, don't panic! If it does all kick off, we can send a couple of spare battalions down , with a harrier strike & fleet defence force on our aircraft carriers, with the Nimrod providing ship/sub hunting capability. Then we can send lots of our spare helicopters in to ferry troops around, and use the spare tri-stars to maintain a safe airbridge... :} Oh.. Wait... :*

[fergineer]

Someone had to say it Keng but you are right what chance of us doing anything abouut it now

[althenick]

It's ok, don't panic! If it does all kick off, we can send a couple of spare battalions down , with a harrier strike & fleet defence force on our aircraft carriers, with the Nimrod providing ship/sub hunting capability. Then we can send lots of our spare helicopters in to ferry troops around, and use the spare tri-stars to maintain a safe airbridge... Oh.. Wait...

... Or rather than pontificating about how the UK would retake the Falklands why don't the Govt instruct CAS to put a couple of squadrons of Typhoons on the patch. With all the predicted base closures i'm sure it would help ease the overcrowding.

[Whenurhappy]

ODS HOME PAGE (http://daccess-dds-ny.un.org/doc/RESOLUTION/GEN/NR0/435/26/IMG/NR043526.pdf?OpenElement)


UNSCR 502 requiring the Argentine forces to withdraw has yet to be rescinded or overturned by the UNSC. And as long as the UK has P5 membership (and the power of Veto) any hostilities against the Falklands would remain unlawful - moreover if Brazil supported such action, it would scupper their chances of getting a permanent seat on the Security Council (not that this is likely in the foreseeable future!).

[just another jocky]

... Or rather than pontificating about how the UK would retake the Falklands why don't the Govt instruct CAS to put a couple of squadrons of Typhoons on the patch. With all the predicted base closures i'm sure it would help ease the overcrowding.

I'm sure that will happen if it ever becomes appropriate.

[green granite]

Good use for the 50+ trance 1 Typhoons they're planning on scrapping soon.

Mind you knowing the crazy governments we get they'll probably sell them to the Argentinians.

[andyy]

The biggest casualty here will be the loss of Jacks favorite run ashore

What, Newcastle?

[Navy_Adversary]

As g g stated use the Tranche 1 Tiffies, surely they can handle anything the Argentians may throw at the Falkland Islands.(with assistance from a sub or two)

Maybe Tevez knew something we didn't when he stated that he wanted to return to Argentina from Manchester City FC, I think it's time I stocked up on the old Corned Beef, I guess the RAF could bomb Gaucho grills in London.:)

How far is it from Kandahar to Port Stanley?:8

[LH2]

This is not to say that they won't discover commercial quantities of the black stuff, I'm sure they will

How can you be sure? So far Desire/FOG have been high on hype and nil on results.

[LH2]

Ok, how about this twist on the referendum idea:

Since the Kelpers were (most of them, I assume) born in the islands, which are claimed by Argentina, that automatically makes them Argentinians, so why not:

1. Make a declaration to the effect that the Falk... Malvinas do in fact belong to Argentina
2. Declare themselves Argentinians by birthright (get a passport and all)
3. Organise a referendum of independence from Argentina :E

[Earl of Rochester]

Now that, LH2, is a bloody good idea!

The UK could then offer 'support' to the FI's should the Argies refuse to concede to their secession after such a decision had been reached through a democratic referendum. Brilliant!

Re: oil. Well its just a matter of time. Oilex techniques are advancing with every decade and reserves popping up all over the place where at first they thought were none.

We shall see.

Earl

[Whenurhappy]

Ah, yes, quite a good idea...but the GoA are not obliged to grant a referendum to the Bennies, now, are they?

Another clever (and somewhat ironic) legal device would be for the UK to grant the Falkland Island independence after an internationally adjudicated plebiscite, with their legal person defined under Montevideo Convention on Rights and Duties of States 1933, Art 1. (ie permanent population, defined territory, government, and capacity to engage in international relations) Immediately on granting independence (or Dominion status) the UK and FI governments would ratify a mutual defence and assistance treaty. [This is similar to the creation of Belize]. Of course, few South American countries (with the exception of Chile) would recognise this new state, but who cares? The Falkland Islanders would have 'self-determination' as required under UN Charter Art 1(2) and subsequent Decolonisation conventions.



Confusingly, the first colonists in East Falkland were French, in 1764 - who then sold their settlement to Spain in 1767. British occupation of West Falkand comemnced in 1765, which was conquered by the Spanish in 1770 and then returned in 1771. The British abandoned the settlement in 1774, but left a plaque confirming that it remained British (actually English) territory and not terre nullis. It then gets complicated. Argentina (as is) declared independence from Spain in 1811 and took formal possession of the islands in 1820. The Colonial Office, being on the ball, protested some 9 years later. In 1831 a USN ship evicted the Argentine settlers in reprisal for actions taken by the Governor and in 1833 the British captured the island and have remained there ever since, apart from a brief interregnum in 1982. British possession is based on the principle of conquest, which is upheld by international law. Simples!

Oh, and one final point, it is accepted point of international law that a state (in this case the UK) is entitled to rely upon the right of self defence even when its possession of the territory in question is subject to controversy

Stick that up your Junta!

[robin]

.. nicely put but have our politicos got the cojones to do anything about it.

They are putting the lives of our west-country fleet at risk with decisions made recently, so do you think they'd hesitate to dump the FIs given a chance?

Whoops, I forgot, the Iron Lady would probably kill them if they tried.

[Tocsin]

How far is it from Kandahar to Port Stanley?:8

Kandahar to Mount Pleasant is 8105nm, great circle route...

...which passes over Iran, Yemen and Somalia (among other African not-so-great states).

Bend it a bit and you get a stop-over in Seffrica, though :ok:

[dalek]

HMS Astute alone would deter the attack.
Is it off the sandbank yet?

[NURSE]

Have seen a comment on another forum that HMS Clyde made a bit of a mess last time she visited that port with a fuel spill.
But At least there is movement on the Endurance front RN are to lease a vessel (To Be named HMS Protector) till a descision is made on Endurance future.

HMS Protector will be Endurance replacement - Portsmouth Today (http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/newshome/HMS-Protector-will-be-Endurance.6685123.jp)

[Earl of Rochester]

The latest on this saga:


Brazil's decision to prevent a Royal Navy ship docking in Rio de Janeiro was probably motivated by political expediency but will still raise concerns that Britain is becoming increasingly isolated in relation to the Falklands Islands.
South American countries generally back Argentina's claims over sovereignty over the islands, with varying degrees of enthusiasm.

In February 2010 Hugo Chavez, Venezuela's radical left-wing president, used his regular television show to address the Queen, telling her that "the time for empires is over" and that Britain should give up the Falklands.

In the same month Lula Inacio Lula da Silva, then president of Brazil, expressed "solidarity" with Argentina and questioned why the United Nations did not tackle the issue of the Falklands.

Shortly afterwards the Argentines claimed a diplomatic coup when Hillary Clinton said during a visit to Buenos Aires that the US would be willing to mediate between Britain and Argentina.



More here: Britain's isolation on Falklands grows with 'anti-colonial' Brazil snub - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/brazil/8251700/Britains-isolation-on-Falklands-grows-with-anti-colonial-Brazil-snub.html)

This approach is based on a feeling that it is time for Britain to move over and which view is fuelled by meetings between Latin American leaders who take no account of law or history and encourage each other with prostestations of "thieves" and "imperialists."

Earl

[Dengue_Dude]

Well if they managed to get the bloody submarine off the sandbar, then they can send that down there.

I must admit, if it were left to me in 1982, I would have given every Falkland Islander £1,000,000 and a Spanish dictionary.

I bet there wouldn't have been any dissenters then - that's the self-determination sorted out.

But that was never why we were there was it . . . ?

I still remember the greedy bastard over-charging us in the Upland Goose.

[francophile69]

Still at least there's lots of Merchant ships to requisition..

oh wait....

P&O are no longer British....

and the only ship really capable is the Queen Mary 2...

oh, she's a Cunarder and owned by Carnival so therefore American owned...

[Jabba_TG12]

The only thing that is going to deter any kind of attack is the reinforcement of the garrison. In this respect, we are reliant on the J2 guys to spot the signs as far into the distance as possible.

It is not beyond the wit of the UK though, through a combination of factors, not to see it coming. If it does happen, it will be too late. There is not going to be the equipment, personnel, political will or leadership necessary to retake the islands if they are lost again.

So, if they are that important, defend them properly.

One has to bear in mind as well, that rattling a sabre makes a lot of noise, like these episodes prove. Drawing the sabre and inflicting the wound, does not. A lot of this is just noise and "buggeration factor", arguably for South American domestic consumption.

Short of us gifting the islands to them on a plate, which I dont think we're quite ready to do just yet (maybe another 4 years or so :E), I dont think theres any immediate threat for us to get worked up about.

[Union Jack]

Britain's isolation on Falklands grows with 'anti-colonial' Brazil snub - Telegraph

..... whose article would have been enhanced by a photograph of HMS CLYDE, rather than RFA LARGS BAY ......:(

Jack

[Mike7777777]

In happier days, when we possessed a competent Foreign Office and supporting agencies, a long-running yet relatively minor military conflict would have arisen between Argentina and Chile (long frontier to soak up lots of resource)

In 2011, as per previous postings by other on pprune, if the FCs do not object then any military incursion into the Falklands by the Argentinians will be currently met with vastly superior air power, a high attrition rate for skimmers and a Tomahawk storm.

But isn't it about time we saw some of this oil?

[LH2]

One thing that gets me thinking though. If there was indication of any significant and economically viable oil reserves down that way (which the spook community would know about long before most oil & gas professionals, let alone the general public), wouldn't you expect the usual preparations for securing the bounty?

OTOH, if the indications are that nothing of substance is expected to be found, then why go through all the hassle and expense of stepping up defences?

Comments?

[Thelma Viaduct]

What will happen is this:

1) It kicks off in a few years time
2) US&A comes to our 'aid'
3) The oil rights are given to US&A as payment
4) UK gets screwed over by the spams again

[petit plateau]

If there was indication of any significant and economically viable oil reserves down that way (which the spook community would know about long before most oil & gas professionals,

If the spooks know before the oil & gas professionals, then those drilling rigs would be putting exploratory wells into the spooks. Yes the intelligence services pay attention to what is going on in oil & gas but they have to wait like everyone else.

[Wheaters]

Rockhopper PLC is drilling as we speak..

Effectively an appraisal well for the SeaLion field to see how far it stretches and hitting a previously untapped fan system.

Initial estimates from the single drill on SeaLion indicate 170+ mmbo, though if it does stretch as far as the current well then you're looking at closer to a billion barrels.

Oil has been found and is commercially viable. It is too early to say how much but RKH have funding through 2011 for a further 8 wells.

It took 80 wells sunk into the North Sea before commercial oil was found, it is very early days in the Falklands however results are encouraging. I suspect we will see the first Falklands oil sold towards the back end of 2012.

The problem, and the direction of Argentine discourtesy, is in the transportation. All of the FI explorers are relatively small (saying that Rkh tops a billion quid now) hence they need finance to develop and explore the region. Once production starts they will need to hire tankers to deliver the oil to the nearest refinery. If the nearest refinery, due to political pressure from Argentina, is 1000s of miles away then it makes the commercial aspects tighter.

Not impossible, just less profitable overall. The recent rise in the oil price dwarfs these considerations of course.

[Earl of Rochester]

New Falklands War Brewing!


Told you so!

Argentina's president stokes up claim to the Falklands

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01580/DE-KERCHNER_1580770c.jpg
Argentina's president, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, is playing the Falklands card in her election campaign

Argentina's president is stoking up patriotic sentiment over the Falklands by ordering that each school have a classroom named after a soldier killed in the conflict with Britain.

President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner made the announcement as she said that "the Malvinas are Argentine for ever" and the government "will never yield in our claim".

More of the 'hag's' ;) ramblings here (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/falklandislands/8426897/Argentinas-president-stokes-up-claim-to-the-Falklands.html)

[Navaleye]

Blimey, she makes Gaddafi seem lucid :eek: and he's better looking.

[BOAC]

.....and of course, we are particularly well-placed right now to support the islands............

I reckon I'd kick Gaddafi out of bed for her.....................

[minigundiplomat]

She looks like she is performing some kind of act on an invisible visual aid - possibly?

[Thelma Viaduct]

Send the machinegundemic over with 500 rounds, job jobbed. :ok::ok::ok:

[The Old Fat One]

I know her.

I met her in a ladyboy bar in Bangkok.

PS

Does she/he remind anyone of another looney Argentinian, well known for his rantings....

[AR1]

I actually saw this on the news in BA, and what she said (literally translated), was that " Camerons Man Sword is only this big" - Which across the latin world is considered a gross insult.

[racedo]

1981-2 revisited when UK were paring down military, much to US dislike, to reduce costs and all of a sudden a couple of "incidents" required a reconsideration...................cynical moi !!!

[Mike7777777]

What is the range of a Tomahawk?

[The B Word]

UNCLASS 1200-1400nm...

[dat581]

If the Argies get a bit aggressive and have another go the simplest way to deal with them is to send a Vanguard Sub down launch a trident missle into BA. Remove the warhead and replace it with a few notes that say: "The next missle will be armed if you don't withdraw all Argie personnel from the Falkland Islands imediatly."

[pr00ne]

dat581,


Er, you're not very good at strategy are you?


Jeeez...

[Mike7777777]

UNCLASS 1200-1400nm... Thanks. Depending on the rules of engagement, it's difficult to believe that the Argentinians would consider aggressive actions against the Falklands if the UK has the option of using Tomahawks. But would the rules of engagement permit Tomahawk strikes against targets on the Argentine mainland? Probably not (?)

[500N]

Military targets ? Like jets ?

Why not ?

.

[Captivep]

I was in Buenos Aires recently and walked past the memorial to their dead in the Falklands. At the time it was being guarded by two soldiers in rather ruritanian uniforms. It started to drizzle and a guy wearing jeans and a t-shirt, with a cigarette in his mouth, approached them, spoke for a few seconds, and then turned away. To be honest, he looked like a drunk out to cause trouble.The soldiers followed him and it soon became clear what was happening. The scruff was clearly their guard commander taking them in out of the rain. When the drizzle stopped he, still with cigarette on the go, brushed some raindrops off their epaulettes and waved them back to their posts, while he sauntered off.I was completely taken aback! If that is indicative of their armed force's level of professionalism and commitment (to what is supposed to be a sacred memorial) then I think we should be quietly confident.I found no animosity to us Brits though (even when returing by sea to Buenos Aires direct from Stanley with a Falkland Islands stamp in my passport).Clearly, though, the Malvinas (sic) runs deep in the national psyche - I must admit I was amused to see the weather forecasts on the local news channels; every one of them religiously went through the outlook for the islands. I can't imagine they truly believe that any Falklander will be tuning in...Or maybe they do! One of the oddest things in the Falkland Islands Museum is a propaganda note delivered to islanders straight after the invasion which reads:"People of the Malvinas - You have been liberated from the illegal colonial government. The people and Armed Forces of Argentina embrace you as brothers. Join us in forging a great future for the islands. Join us in giving thanks to the blessed Virgin Mary for the success of Operation Rosary."

[Heathrow Harry]

"If there was indication of any significant and economically viable oil reserves down that way (which the spook community would know about long before most oil & gas professionals, let alone the general public)"

How?

Does the CIA have its own seismic boats and drillships that operate in a cloak of invisibility?

I doubt any secret service could afford the costs of running an oil operation

Watch AIM announcements instead - the oil companies publish detailed updates all the time

[Grimweasel]

Check the Desire and Rockhopper forums on iii.co.uk. Some very informative chaps as well as the usual rampers and derampers

Desire is drilling the Ninky prospect as we speak so expect to see an rns next week hopefully - this is Desire's last chance really as they have expended investors' cash on their drills that found water earlier this year - a sham of a company really. But if they find oil it will become big news.

If they do find oil in Ninky it becomes very important as this will prove the basin and put the FI on the map as a major new oil discovery. FOGL have yet to drill their prospects in the Southern area - they have secured a rig for 2012 and their area is a lot deeper but is thought to contain billions of barrels of oil.

Stock up on Rockhopper shares as they are currently undervalued and probably offer greater value today than many FTSE 100 companies.

[aw ditor]

Beware, all the oil "operators" in the FI are "Punts" at the moment. Only invest if you can afford to lose it! Is pprune' becoming an IFA?

[Romeo Oscar Golf]

Er, you're not very good at strategy are you

What's your problem with that PrOOne? Sounds good to me.. shades of the Cold War posturing.

[Ranger 1]

During the Falklands war in 82 consideration was given to flying a Vulcan over BA to acheive the same effect as dat581 mentioned.
Sadly the only effective platform with range would be a Sub now :(.

[Thelma Viaduct]

How useful would a few MLRS be against an argie amphibious assault?

[WillDAQ]

How useful would a few MLRS be against an argie amphibious assault?

More to the point, how effective would a sub be?

[Biggus]

How about an SSN and MLRS, and more than a token fig leaf of air cover?


The best way to keep the Falkland Islands is to avoid losing them in the first place. I seem to remember (from reading about it - I'm not that old!) that Singapore was considered an impenetrable fortress that couldn't be taken, especially by a 'minor nation' with 'inferior kit'. How did that work out again?


Over-egging the defence of the Falklands, at least until the situation reference oil, etc, is clarified, can have no real impact except for a relatively minor cost implication. Under defending the Falklands however, could have catastrophic consequences.....

[Heathrow Harry]

If they find oil in economic quantities we can ask for a bigger cheque in return for more kit there

[OddlyContent]

And which 6 months of 1982 would that be??

[Thomas coupling]

Ranger 1: God forbid, if any Nuke/tomahawk sub should be as accurate as the Vulcans in '82, we may as well hand the islands over to them now :ugh:

[Trim Stab]

I was in Buenos Aires recently and walked past the memorial to their dead in the Falklands. At the time it was being guarded by two soldiers in rather ruritanian uniforms. It started to drizzle and a guy wearing jeans and a t-shirt, with a cigarette in his mouth, approached them, spoke for a few seconds, and then turned away. To be honest, he looked like a drunk out to cause trouble.The soldiers followed him and it soon became clear what was happening. The scruff was clearly their guard commander taking them in out of the rain. When the drizzle stopped he, still with cigarette on the go, brushed some raindrops off their epaulettes and waved them back to their posts, while he sauntered off.


Gosh. I know diplomatic relations between Argentina and UK have advanced a lot since 1982, but I didn't know we had RAF detachments on exchange postings out there...

[Lonewolf_50]

An SSN takes care of the seaborn threat.

Some Typhoons and a few correctly located SAM batteries take care of the Argentine Air Threat.

A variety of UAV under local control, and a slightly mobile light infantry battalion take care of Argentine SPEZNAZ sorts.

The problem will come when the Argentine Government goes to one of these International Kangaroo Courts with this crap.

I wish they'd knock this crap off, all it does is split the West and put the Chinese in a bigger state of ROFMLAO.

[TEEEJ]

Argentina are planning to buy six Embraer KC-390s (Air refuelling tanker and transport). Currently they rely on KC-130 Hercules to provide an air tanker capability.

EMBRAER DEFENSE AND SECURITY AND FAdeA SIGN PARTNERSHIP CONTRACT FOR KC-390 PROGRAM | INTERNATIONAL AVIATION NEWS (http://www.aviationnews.eu/2011/04/13/embraer-defense-and-security-and-fadea-sign-partnership-contract-for-kc-390-program/)

Embraer Defense and Security and the Argentine company FAdeA signed a partnership contract, today, for the KC-390 program. The announcement was made during a press conference held at LAAD Defense and Security 2011

http://www.aviationnews.eu/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Embraer-KC-390.jpg

TJ

[Thelma Viaduct]

How far off is the Meteor a-a missile from service?

[racedo]

Does the CIA have its own seismic boats and drillships that operate in a cloak of invisibility?

They have lots of stuff we can only dream of...

But in answer to your question you will find former counter terrorism chief of M16 is now a senior adviser to BP so why not just control the information internally.

MI6 agent joined disgraced BP boss in secret meetings with Gaddafi (http://www.khilafah.com/index.php/news-watch/africa/7425-mi6-agent-joined-disgraced-bp-boss-in-secret-meetings-with-gaddafi)

CIA have form for overthrowing Govt's to ensure Oil is looked after.

[TEEEJ]

Pious Pilot wrote

How far off is the Meteor a-a missile from service?

The partners agreed a few years ago to delay it until 2015. France is expecting it in service in 2018 on Rafale.

France Purchases 200 Meteor Missiles - Defense News (http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=5364799)

TJ

[Heathrow Harry]

The Intelligence Services?

Actually they are a pretty average bunch of incompetents - they never forecast the Arab risings, the fall of the USSR and most other major events

mainly their function is to be photographed by Russian TV hiding stuff under stones in Moscow parks

mainly people who went to minor public school and not bright enough to get a job in the City

[philrigger]

;)

mainly people who went to minor public school and not bright enough to get a job in the City

A bit like those banker wankers then.

[Earl of Rochester]

.
Britain; A 'crude colonial power in decline': Argentinian President

Argentinian President Cristina Kirchner has referred to Britain as a 'crude colonial power in decline' and suggested that Argentina and Britain should 'negotiate over the South Atlantic islands'.

The response came after Mr Cameron told the Commons on Wednesday: "I would say this: as long as the Falkland Islands want to be a sovereign British territory, they should remain a sovereign British territory - full stop, end of story."

She branded Mr Cameron "arrogant" and said his remarks were an expression of "mediocrity and stupidity".

More tosh here (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/falklandislands/8581447/Britain-a-crude-colonial-power-in-decline-says-Argentinas-president-Cristina-Kirchner.html)

[Buster Hyman]

She branded Mr Cameron "arrogant" and said his remarks were an expression of "mediocrity and stupidity".
I'd take that as a compliment coming from an expert.

[The Old Fat One]

Britian a colonial power in decline would appear to be a fact beyond dispute since 100 years ago we were the most powerful nation on Earth and today we cannot even bribe/bully a bunch of said colonials into giving us the world cup...an we haven't won the Eurovision Song contest for years.

As for Cameron, he looks like an arrogant, dim-witted ar*e to me, but maybe that is because I'm a bit bitter that he sh1t canned Coastal Command after eight decades of loyal service to this maritime nation.

All in all I reckon I reckon she is spot on...even if she is a self-serving Argie political :mad:.

PS

I take exception to the :mad: calling us crude though.

[WillDAQ]

She branded Mr Cameron "arrogant" and said his remarks were an expression of "mediocrity and stupidity".

Well the Americans consider cyber attacks an act of war so surely this must qualify?

Proportionate (nuclear) response anyone? :}

[racedo]

Given suggestions on sites that Arsenals are getting low because of the continued campaign in Libya and the overall stretch that forces are under there must be concern that if Argentina decides to ratchet up a campaign there is nothing to stop them.

Personally think it would have been better to send the Harriers and all the kit to the Islands while placing numerous dispersal points that could be used quickly as that would have kept them battle ready and provided a deterrent.

[Dengue_Dude]

OK, here we go again . . .

Right, as I've said SOo many times before.

Give every Falkland Islander a million quid and a Spanish dictionary. Then listen to the deafening silence.

We'd save a fortune, improve relations, stop stretching our resources beyond breaking point and so on.

. . . then someone mentioned oil.

If the USA are not going to support us (and it looks like they won't), Sandy Woodward has got it right, we're stuffed.

Save a few billion and perhaps Lyneham could stay open (if they haven't sold the land for development yet).

[Failed_Scopie]

Having done a tour down in the Falklands, I am inclined to agree - I wasn't overly impressed with the Bennies then and I remain unimpressed now. Nevertheless, the place is not completely undefended and could be reinforced quickly, but we do not have enough infantry down there and rely upon the FIDF for land-based recce. A bigger bunch of yahoos in HM Forces I have yet to encounter. I cannot see the Army being in a position to provide a Regular battalion constantly, but it would be an ideal role for a TA battalion with a revised ORBAT of the RIC (Reg) and Bn HQ and Rifle Coy plus (TA) and the FIDF as the third manoeuvre sub-unit. The FIDF should become a TA unit with a similar status to the Royal Gibraltar Regiment and the Bermuda Regiment, equipped with standard issue British Military equipment instead of walting-it-up gear purchased from Silvermans/Arktis and wherever else they wish to spend their fishing licence revenue. And while I am at it, there shoul be a full RAF Regiment Field Sqn deployed at MPA too - its unique mix of ISTAR/81mm mortars/GPMG SF/WMIK make it a force to be reckoned with as dismounted close combat specialists. It could even be added to the putative Battlegroup as a fourth manoeuvre sub-unit. That would easily be sufficient to defeat any Argentinian landing force. ;)

[Earl of Rochester]

Given suggestions on sites that Arsenals are getting low because of the continued campaign in Libya and the overall stretch that forces are under there must be concern that if Argentina decides to ratchet up a campaign there is nothing to stop them.

Personally think it would have been better to send the Harriers and all the kit to the Islands while placing numerous dispersal points that could be used quickly as that would have kept them battle ready and provided a deterrent.

Don't be silly Racedo, that would be logical and, therefore, totally out of keeping with current defence policy!

[racedo]

Earl

oops sorry as that wouldn't go down well as it doesn't involve lots of spurious trips for the procurement teams in plush hotels.

[fantom]

How could there be a war involving the UK if we can't get there?

[SASless]

You can't get there....but you have nothing to transport....and when it is all said and done....you are no longer in decline....but more like in a supine posture gazing at the heavens wondering what happened to you.:uhoh:

The UK along with its NATO allies are stuffed in dealing with a tinpot dictator in Tripoli....yet some of you think you can repeat the Falkland War with far less gear than you had last time....oh..my...indeed!:sad:

Most wars are won or lost by logistics...no matter how sharp the Troops are.

You/ve lost this one already in my view unless the Argies are in a similar situation militarily as the UK appears to be.:=

[Lonewolf_50]

Respectfully disagree, SASless.

Let us suppose an armed SSN on patrol with a permissive RoE. This creates a considerably different set up for the Argentine occupation plans.

I noted earlier how you foil an invasion. Seaborne and airborne invasions are non trivial exercises in power projection. With a prepared and warned force, a modest force (with kit as I describe above) can make the invasion cost prohibitive.

[glad rag]

I suppose it IS interesting that the UK is currently employing it's armed forces to defend a bunch of folk who really don't want us there anymore, whilst there are a bunch of our own citizens who are coming under apparently more threats and danger to their basic freedoms [there the yanks will like that bit] and we don't seem to want to do anything about it.

How bizarre.:(

[parabellum]

If the Argentinians started anything serious they would have to contend with a rather different Falklands Islands defence than the last time, are they up to this?

What is the Argentinians anti-submarine capability? Are they up to dealing with ground based anti-aircraft missile batteries?

Any sea borne invasion would risk running the gauntlet of submarine defences and an airborne assault would be shot out of the sky, wouldn't it?

[500N]

They could do it, but it would be costly.
I would also think that to do it, it would have to be done quickly (as in try to do it with surprise) using Airborne and Sea landings.
And I don't think they would be able to take everything in one go so they would be contending with a resourceful BTL force.

And would they be prepared for the UK to attack mainland Argentina
and would the UK do it ?

[Airborne Aircrew]

and would the UK do it ? Since we only have one free resource remaining I'd suggest that nuclear retaliation to the invasion of sovereign territory is appropriate...

Sorry... I forgot the ;)

[500N]

A few Tomahawk's lobbed from a sub into a few into a few Military installations
might make the Argies sit up and take notice with the promise of a few more to follow if certain actions are not carried out.

.

[FlyingEagle21]

crude colonial power in decline

Bit rich coming from a country founded by Spanish colonials and later supplemented by fugitives from Nazi Germany's demise.

Even with the UK SDSR in place the Argentines would have no chance in a conflict. They're only after a UN resolution over the matter.

[Whenurhappy]

Likelihood of UNSCR on the Falklands? Absolutely no chance - UK has the veto. As for the Argentine President harping on about the UK ignoring General Assembly resolutions, she might wish to consider her own country,s behaviour in this respect!

[glad rag]

And do you think they give a flying F?

Once the South American coalition gets up and running the Argentines will take the rather large ticket of OIL to the bargaining table, then watch out.

South America backs Falklands claim - Defence Management (http://www.defencemanagement.com/news_story.asp?id=12233)

BBC News - Argentina rallies regional support over Falklands (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8529605.stm)

and most importantly

Argentina's president stokes up claim to the Falklands - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/falklandislands/8426897/Argentinas-president-stokes-up-claim-to-the-Falklands.html)

stoking the fires.

[Panama Jack]

Fascinating thread. I am neither an Argentine nor UK citizen but have visited both countries, so it is interesting to see the arguements. It was interesting to read how many times the Falklands/Islas Malvinas have changed hands.

It seems that Kirschner is using nationalist sentiments to draw attention away from (red herring) her own domestic problems in Argentina. This was a tactic of the military dictatorship during the early 1980's. What they didn't recon with was the resolve of Thatcher who, herself, was having her own set of problems at home. Argentina's military defeat caused great humiliation to the dictatorship in Argentina, probably helped lead to its demise, and helped raise approvals of the "Iron Lady" at home.

I see political stir-ups being used as effective tools to divert attention away from "real" difficult domestic problems by countries as diverse as the United States, China, Nicaragua, Bahrain, Pakistan, Cuba, North Korea . . . really an endless list probably encompassing most of the World's countries.

What is interesting is that numerous Latin Americans, during the 1980's, believed (perhaps naively) that a supposedly idealistic and law-abiding United States would actually back Argentina, rather than the United Kingdom, on the Falkland Crisis, based on the Monroe Doctrine (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monroe_Doctrine), which was used as justification by the United States to fend off Soviet and Eastern Block involvment in Latin America.

It is also to see that a sometimes irrational fancy for "the confetti of empire" still exists in many parts of the World.

[Tallsar]

PJ...like most of what you say....objective viewpoints always help. Not sure about the imperial confetti comment though? BTW...I feel sure the Monroe Doctrine was put together to prevent further imperial adventures into South America, minimise the extant colonial powers influence in the region, not least by the UK...and ensure the southern security of US birders.....it predated Cold War politics by some way!

[SASless]

What capability do the Argies have to accomplish their goal this time?

Are they better off or not?

What lessons did they learn from the last go at taking the Falklands?

I am sure the British have some idea of what did not work and what might be a much better way to deal with the situation.

[The Helpful Stacker]

Surely the "what didn't work last time" was the defence of the Falklands in the first place.

The Royal Marines of NP8901, for all their efforts, were not up to the task of defending the FIs against such odds.

Things are a little different down there now days and whilst some may pour scorn on there being 'only' four Typhoons they are a hell of a lot more suitable to the task in hand than the assortment of elderly, short-legged and poorly supported a/c the Argentinians can through at the islands. Of course their is also the advanced warning that forces based on the islands would have of an approaching Argentine force, something not available back in 1982.

The Argentine military is in a far worse position than the British. Whilst the British military has been cutback in numbers the technology of those forces that are available far outweighs that available to the Argentines, much of their forces still being equipped with that which wasn't sent across the sea to later be destoryed or captured by the British.

I don't believe any changing of 'ownership' of the Falklands will happen as a result of military action, rather more likely it will take a political form. But of course the UN would never force the population of lands to accept governing by another nation against their right to self-determination would they?

[Aynayda Pizaqvick]

Give me a sub for a day and only 3 missiles (the non nuclear variety) and I reckon I could have the Argentinians screaming for an end to any war. The smoke that the 15 million odd citizens of Buenos Aires would see billowing from the military sector at Aeroparque Jorge Newberry (Cristina could see that one from her balcony in the Casa Rosada), El Palomar Air Base and Mariano Moreno Air Base would see a retreat quicker than you could say 'General Belgrano'!

Seriously though, if you talk to any educated Argentinian you will realise that they don't give a rats about the Falklands much less entertain any thoughts about retaking them. Their armed force have had the second lowest defence expenditure in South America for the past 20+ years and have no new kit - certainly no match for a Typhoon with ASRAAM and AMRAAM!
Presidents (particularly the Peronists) will however continue to appeal to the uneducated by merely mentioning Las Malvinas, we just need to ignore it as such.

[trex450]

having been to the Falklands a few times I think it is safe to say that you could offer the Islanders a million each to change nationality and would politely get told to FO by the very vast majority and rightly so. Old plastic face is acting, like most argie politicians do, like a spoilt child saying I want all the time expecting to get. Any argie government will be very wary of putting too much money into their armed forces because of their habit of turning around and overthrowing those in charge. It is purely an election year in argentina and it is always a vote winning topic.

[racedo]

The Argentine military is in a far worse position than the British. Whilst the British military has been cutback in numbers the technology of those forces that are available far outweighs that available to the Argentines, much of their forces still being equipped with that which wasn't sent across the sea to later be destoryed or captured by the British.


Everybody always assumes next war fought will be the same as the last.

A deal done with another neighbouring country or a faraway one (famous for its food after the pub) to supply some of the muscle to aid Argentina and get oil leases as a repayment is another way of looking at what could happen.

[Navaleye]

I enjoyed it 29 years ago. Bring em on.

[10W]

I enjoyed it 29 years ago. Bring em on.

Do you think those left behind in Falklands graves, or buried at sea, enjoyed it as much as you did ?:rolleyes:

[FODPlod]

Do you think those left behind in Falklands graves, or buried at sea, enjoyed it as much as you did ?:rolleyes:

What's wrong with enjoying your job? Last year there were over 1,000 fatalities in aircraft accidents worldwide and over 200,000 deaths and injuries on British roads. Does that mean no one should be allowed to enjoy flying or driving?

[XL319]

BBC News - Falkland man chooses Argentine citizenship (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-13780144)

This guy is a traitor as far as I'm concerned. I would revoke his british citizenship never to return it to him.

Does he not realise he has been used as a pawn in very carefully staged politcal propaganda.:mad:

I for one am proud to be British.

[Romeo Oscar Golf]

10W are you really a "Moderator". Better get some real time in if you are.

Give me a sub for a day and only 3 missiles (the non nuclear variety) and I reckon I could have the Argentinians screaming for an end to any war.

A bit like we're doing in Libya against another third world dictator?:rolleyes:

[parabellum]

A deal done with another neighbouring country or a faraway one (famous for its food after the pub) to supply some of the muscle to aid Argentina and get oil leases as a repayment is another way of looking at what could happen.


The neighbours probably couldn't muster much better equipment than Argentina at the moment, then there is the little problem of motivating other South Americans to go and give their lives for the Falklands. Personally I can't see China openly supporting a South American offensive and effectively taking on the rest of the civilised world.

An airborne assault? Four Typhoons and ground based anti-aircraft missile batteries could make an awful mess of transport aircraft positioning for a mass drop. A sea borne assault? - submarines.

How would Argentina neutralise these defences?

[SASless]

Bit snotty to ask such a question of those who have seen the Dragon don't you think 10W?

When folks go to War....some folks die in the process. Those that stay at home safe should take their hat off to those that went and those who were lost protecting other folk's freedom.

I assume you will be offering an apology for the tone of your post seeing as how you are a Moderator and all. Mod's are supposed to stay out of the fuss so I have heard.....not provoke one.

[Navaleye]

We all took the Queen's shilling and we knew the risks. I lost mates, but we would do it again if we had to.

[Fareastdriver]

I can't see China openly supporting a South American offensive and effectively taking on the rest of the civilised world

I cannot see them jeopardising their export trade either; not for the sake of a supply originating halfway around the world.

[jamesdevice]

a bigger risk to China is jeapordising their food IMPORTS. For instance China are the worlds biggest importers of Soy oil, 50% of which comes from Argentina. In 2009 this represented something like $700,000,000 of business. The Chinese alternative is to buy from the USA. The Chinese recently shot themselves in the foot by creating a trade war with Argentina, banning the soy imports: so the Argentines sold it all to India (though at a reduced price), leaving the Chinese with a serious shortfall. When you consider how important Soy oil is to the Chinese, this is a serious issue. Chinese investment in other food production in Argentina is big: major irrigation schemes, railway improvements (to the ports), and purchases of corn, corn oil and other staples.
I'm sure that if the Chinese were given an ultimatum: food for weapons, they'd jump pretty quickly

And don't forget Argentina is well resourced in metals

[10W]

FODPLod

What's wrong with enjoying your job? Last year there were over 1,000 fatalities in aircraft accidents worldwide and over 200,000 deaths and injuries on British roads. Does that mean no one should be allowed to enjoy flying or driving?

Absolutely nothing wrong with enjoying your job and I don't see the point of your accident examples in this context. My statement was more aimed at the poster seeming to enjoy the fighting which took place and wishing for it to happen again. Why would anyone in a civilised society want war if other means have not been fully exhausted ? I am not sure that the millions of brave servicemen and women maimed and killed defending our country and our freedoms over the centuries would say that they got enjoyment out of becoming a casualty or suffering the horrors of war. A sense of honour, pride, bravery, righteousness, gratitude .... yes, they could claim all those things, and rightly so with my absolute full support, but enjoyment ? I think not, and anyone who claims so I think is being flippant and disrespectful to those who have made the sacrifices to our people and our nation, even if they were involved themselves. Others have freedom to not agree with me of course, thanks precisely to those who gave their lives.

A close family friend served in the Falklands in command of a Type 42 destroyer, subsequently commanding a Royal Navy mobile airfield and retiring as the crab equivalent of an AVM. When he talks of the conflict, he doesn't talk of enjoyment ... ever. He talks of pride in his crew and our armed forces who faced all sorts of adversity and challenges. He talks of the fear of being potentially attacked 24 hours a day by the enemy in high stress situations with equipment which did not always do what it was supposed to. He talks of the horror of losing colleagues and ships in his fleet and the helplessness he felt at times to prevent those losses. He talks of the deep regret and sadness at his ship downing an AAC Gazelle and killing 4 of our own servicemen in the fog of war, with a visible tear in his eye. He talks modestly of the satisfaction that our forces triumphed and the war was ended as quickly as it could have been with a victory. And he talks more than anything of the relief of coming home to his family and friends, whilst acknowledging that many did not get that chance. He has earned my respect, and he does not find war enjoyable nor glorify it one little bit. His experiences speak volumes for me.


ROG

10W are you really a "Moderator". Better get some real time in if you are.

I'll swing it round if I may. Do you know what Moderator means ?

Some of the meanings are:

1) Presides over a meeting, FORUM, or debate. (we can tick that box)
2) A person who monitors the conversations in an on-line chatroom or Forum for bad language, inappropriate content, etc. (another box ticked)
3) Someone who mediates disputes and attempts to avoid violence. (I'd tick the last part in respect of this debate concerning the call for a war put forward by some posters)

An earlier meaning a few centuries ago was that a moderator was a 'controller' or 'ruler' so I guess that's the day job covered too :ok:

As for getting some time in, I think you'll find that it's not a requirement for a Moderator on a site run principally (but not exclusively) for civil professional pilots, to have any military service whatsoever. Most Moderators on this site haven't and I am no exception. Some have of course, and they provide a degree of balance against us civvies and blunties no doubt. They bring different skills, philosophies, and ideas to the table. Note that I didn't say better skills, just different ones which complement those which other Mods provide. Entirely appropriate for a democratic 'society' which is not an autocratic military regime I'd say.

SASless

Bit snotty to ask such a question of those who have seen the Dragon don't you think 10W?

Maybe what I see as flippancy is a serviceman's defence mechanism of the horrors they went through. Only those that served will know if that is the case for them as individuals, and they have PPRuNe as at least one channel to enlighten everyone else about it and increase our understanding if indeed it is the case. But if I see it coming across as disrespectful, which is my current opinion and of course up for challenge, then I won't simply keep quiet. I'll ask the question and not be scared of the outcome. It's permitted in the civvy world to challenge and be challenged and the sign of a healthy democracy and freedom.

When folks go to War....some folks die in the process. Those that stay at home safe should take their hat off to those that went and those who were lost protecting other folk's freedom.

Indeed, my hat is permanently off to our servicemen and women, even in those wars whose political motives and subterfuge I disagree with. It is after all ''Older men who declare war, but it is the youth that must fight and die''.

I assume you will be offering an apology for the tone of your post seeing as how you are a Moderator and all. Mod's are supposed to stay out of the fuss so I have heard.....not provoke one.

Never assume. I won't apologise for thinking about the sacrifice made by our young men and women and won't refrain from questioning someone who I interpret or perceive as, in my opinion, making light of war and it's consequences. If they clarify what they really mean and my interpretation is wrong, then I am happy to see their point of view and acknowledge that. We'll accept that we have differing opinions and move on.

Other than my title on the info box left of here, I didn't make any comment as a Moderator, or attempt to provoke anything. I come as a poster who believes that those who gave up their lives should be treated with respect and talk of going to war should be treated with gravitas and careful reflection. I can accept that the Forces have their banter and their sense of humour is black and very different from many of us in the mainstream of society. I just don't find anyone wishing to have a war so they can enjoy themselves very funny, which is how the post reads to me. But each to their own.

Navaleye

We all took the Queen's shilling and we knew the risks. I lost mates, but we would do it again if we had to.

I absolutely have pride and belief in our brave servicemen and women that they would indeed do it all over again. Many of them are doing so today in other theatres, a fact of which you will, I am sure, be only too aware. Your losses, and those of your colleagues, are acknowledged by the vast proportion of the population, with immense gratitude and humility. There is a debt there which can never be repaid. At least 6 members of my family lost their lives in the fields of France and Belgium during WW1, doing exactly what you did in the Falklands conflict, and what the current Armed Forces are doing today. Several of them don't have the comfort of a known grave. Many of them probably didn't even get the King's shilling and probably had no idea of the risks, since they were conscripted, but deep down they are made of exactly the same stuff which epitomises our UK Forces. It is in the nation's DNA.

Regards and thanks.

[Romeo Oscar Golf]

Unnecessary verbiage 10W. Clearly an Air Trafficker, and a civvy as well.:E
If you want to contribute to a purely military forum, it would help if you had some understanding of military life and personnel, and be prepared for some uncompromising and blunt rebuffs. Also don't let your "humorous" comments be misunderstood

Do you know what Moderator means ?

It may be taken as offensive and arrogant.
Try not to give lectures

I think you'll find that it's not a requirement for a Moderator on a site run principally (but not exclusively) for civil professional pilots, to have any military service whatsoever.

You may find that you offend people.

All of which is why I say "get some time in"
I'll let others support or shoot you down (a mil term) because I don't wish to lecture.:)

[old-timer]

:eek: - Hastily reverse the Ark & Harrier force retirement decision for starters...then find some crew to operate both........bad timing or what to scrap these........:mad:

[SASless]

Other than my title on the info box left of here, I didn't make any comment as a Moderator...

Beg to differ Mate.....every post with the Title "Mod" is a post by a Mod. Seems a common strain hereabouts....some folks wanting it both ways.

As darn few of us are clairvoyant....how do we differeniate your MOD posts from your Non-MOD posts....seeing that all of them have your MOD Title clearly displayed in that bitty box on the left?

The more you try to rationalize your statement the worse your credibility suffers amongst those of us who have worn a Uniform, served in Harm's Way, and know the real price of service to one's Nation during combat.

[Thelma Viaduct]

I think the Mod is bob on, his heart is in the right place. :ok:

[Romeo Oscar Golf]

Brian, note the "smiley".
My little boy didn't want to be an RAF nav, nor a civvie pilot (like his old man) so I pushed him into Eurocontrol where he's a rich eurocrat. Nothing more fun than taking the p*ss out of the flying prevention branch,:ok: particularly when family's involved.
However I digress....
I would truly hope that we could and would repel Argentinian interference in the Falklands, but I'm not convinced on the latter. Mickey Mouse Dave and his Disney Cabinet do not inspire.

[Brian 48nav]

I seemed to have a SOF failure yesterday - that idiot Clarkson's diatribe against cyclists ( in the ST ) again set me up for the day.

My No2 is at Swanwick and jostles regularly with No1 ex Jag Mate and TP.

When discussing FI and Argentina, No1 reckons 4 Typhoons are enough to deter their air force.

I hope he's right, cheers BW

[esa-aardvark]

Overview of Argentine forces

http://www.scramble.nl/ar.htm

[Finningley Boy]

Did anyone read the article in the Daily Mail last week, by Admiral Sandy Woodward. He claims the Typhoon has poor ability in aerial combat?:confused:

I thought that the one thing those who constantly dismiss the Typhoon from the other services, for example Lewis Page, did accept, was its air to air agility and capability.

FB

[engineer(retard)]

A sad day indeed if you are less well informed than Lewis Page

[Jabba_TG12]

Page as much as he may be ill informed on specific aspects does raise other points which need to be answered particularly around the procurement processes, where he spends most of his time bashing Typhoon.

Woodward though, is a different case. Although I'm more inclined to give Typhoon the benefit of the doubt in air to air combat, the scenario that Woodward came up with, to my mind, still holds water. And that is, those four Typhoons cannot be everywhere at once. All you have to do is keep the AD assets occupied at a distance where they cannot directly protect MPA. The rest is difficult, particularly logistically, but far from impossible.

But as said before, the best solution to retake the Islands is not to lose them in the first place. Providing there is sufficient quality intel to allow reinforcement in time, additional Typhoons, troops, SSN's/SSGN's, etc, the problem shouldnt arise.

And, in addition to that, as at least one other contributor has mentioned, its Presidential election season in Argentina and this outburst has been purely for domestic political consumption.

If they're going to go for it, they wont do it yet. They'll do it in another 2 or three years when the effects of SDSR are properly felt at the front line. They've waited long enough. Another three years wont be the end of the world.

[Postman Plod]

Don't forget Lewis Page's exclusive a few weeks ago regarding a Pakistani F16 vs Typhoon exercise where the Typhoon was apparently found lacking. That was pretty swiftly dismissed as propoganda aimed at spoiling the Indian fighter competition, and strikes me as just the sort of thing Adm. Woodward might like to jump on.

[Finningley Boy]

A sad day indeed if you are less well informed than Lewis Page


How do you mean? My point was that Lewis Page, among others, while deriding the Typhoon for everything have, before now, always begun their verbal attacks by describing it as an air superiority fighter with nothing to fight. And so superfluous. Then going on to say how useless it is as a ground attack aircraft. But to say this is somehow to acknowledge that it is at least an adequate fighter. Personally, I understand from those with anything to do with the Typhoon it is an outstanding air superiority fighter. As for the ground attack side, this is largely, as yet, a case of plenty scope for development. But that development will produce something equally outstanding.

OK sod it, bring tha Harrier back like WEBF says, its the answer to all matters air combat related, obviously!:ok:

PS Love the way it goes straight up and down at airshows! A testimony to British engineering and a clear example of an aircraft unbeatable in any other way!!:D

FB:)

[Lonewolf_50]

Sandy Woodward has my respect, but I'm a bit wary of a submariner being cited as an authority of a fighter which he'd never had in his OOB as a battle force commander.
EDIT: that said, I just looked at the numbers again, quantity has a quality all its own, and lack of quantity is ... a problem. At some point, force multipliers don't, when you trim past the fat and cut muscle.

A more poignant question for our British friends is ... what AEW capability do the fighters have? That was one of Admiral Woodward's frustrating shortcomings when he ran the show ... what, nearly 30 years ago?
:eek:
Man, time flies.

[engineer(retard)]

FB

Calm down, I was suggesting that Sandy Woodward was less well informed than Lewis Page. I agree with you about bringing back the Harrier, we might get some bandwidth back. Then we can run some threads about how the RN stitched up the RAF and have "bring back both variants of Tornado, Jaguar and Nimrod campaigns" because the RAF have escaped unscathed up till now.

regards

retard

[The Helpful Stacker]

... what AEW capability do the fighters have?

I don't believe there is any airborne early warning but they have some quite useful ground-based radar.

[Jabba_TG12]

"...have some quite useful ground-based radar."

On unmanned sites subject to known limitations. And, given how often hardware limitations on the older now superceded platforms in the 80's and 90's used to leave holes, the lack of a permanently assigned Area Air Defence DDG potentially exacerbates the situation.

The Woodward scenario has got nothing to do with how capable Typhoon is as an air superiority asset. You dont have to get into a tangle with one or more, you just have to keep them occupied and out of the way at the edges of the FIPZ for long enough to prosecute the capture of the airfield.

This then, becomes ultimately much less about individual platform capabilities and far more to do with numbers available and multi-layered AD including SHORAD, accounting for as many of the possible threat scenarios. If all your assets are away from the nest providing QRA, what are you protecting the homeplate with? Look how many times in the 80's a relatively low number of Tu95's buzzing about in the North Atlantic had our Q resources stretched. More times than I care to remember.

As it is at the moment, we are, to my mind, relying too heavily on Intel to give us sufficient warning of attack which would allow us to make best attempts to effect a timely reinforcement.

Given how the cracks appear to be showing with Libya and Afghan, all it would take would be an increase in legimate Argentine/ joint South American exercise activity in the region and the potential for FIPZ incursions.

I dont think anything will happen for at least a couple of years. All the noise that Kirchner is coming out with now is just that. Noise for domestic consumption. If they are going to go for it, she and/or her successor will wait until we have started making deep cuts to muscle rather than trimming off fat and when the procurement lines, if there are any are just too damned long to be able to react. And then, they will go for it.

An absolute minimum of 2 to 3 years wait, but certainly before the QE carrier comes onstream. I reckon between 2015 and 2018, they're likely to go for it. The UN will do nothing, as it always does, Britain does not have the diplomatic support in South America or even in the Whitehouse any more and certainly will not have the capability to launch a CORPORATE type venture.

We're going down a path where we will barely be able to protect our own shores, let alone anyone elses.

[Vortex what...ouch!]

Unnecessary verbiage 10W. Clearly an Air Trafficker, and a civvy as well.
If you want to contribute to a purely military forum, it would help if you had some understanding of military life and personnel, and be prepared for some uncompromising and blunt rebuffs. Also don't let your "humorous" comments be misunderstood

Quote:
Do you know what Moderator means ?

It may be taken as offensive and arrogant.
Try not to give lectures

Quote:
I think you'll find that it's not a requirement for a Moderator on a site run principally (but not exclusively) for civil professional pilots, to have any military service whatsoever.

You may find that you offend people.

All of which is why I say "get some time in"
I'll let others support or shoot you down (a mil term) because I don't wish to lecture.

Well said that man.

I've met 10W and he is a good egg, but clearly hasn't the first idea about what going to war is like, and never will. Sorry mate but you are way off course with your comments. :=

As the man said, get some time in before trying to lecture military men, otherwise you just sound a bit silly. :ok:

Back on thread, I was in Argentina earlier this year. While the Falklands always comes up when people find out I'm not only a Brit but Ex Mil, with very, very few exceptions they believe they are theirs passionately, but recoil in horror at the thought of another military spat over them. So relax the Presidents rants are for domestic consumption.

[The Helpful Stacker]

Jabba TG12 - Although I'm stepping well beyond my comfort zone here really given my knowledge isn't the true limitation of one's own GBAD assets measured against the compartive quality of the assumed opposition?

Are the Argentine forces in any position to exploit any 'weaknesses' in UK GBAD assets in the Falklnads given the complete lack of support said forces have experienced from their government over the last 29 years?

As a 'for instance' it is believed by many sources that the only ground attack a/c the Argentine military can muster in any numbers at the moment are some A4s and a small number of Pucura. Just how 'limited' would GBAD assets need to be in order to allow subsonic and short-legged a/c such as these to approach the Falklands?

[Utrinque Apparatus]

Stupid woman. Just as macho as her erstwhile idiot compatriots; remember them all for their crimes against their own people in yet another discredited Argentinian junta..... Menendez, Galtieri, Alfredo Astiz to name but a few and not many years ago either. Think 30,000 Desaparecidos (disappeared ones) and see what motivated them last time, not too long ago that the Argentinian people should forget.........?

To divert public opinion from their huge problems at home, again, she's so busy stirring up imaginary slights to their monstrous Latin egos, they forget the Islanders desire to remain British and the fact that they have been British since 1765, consolidated in 1833 when the ludicrous Argentinian half hearted claims were finally put to rest.

Just because they are closer than UK, 400 miles is still quite a distance, does not make the Argentinian preposterous posturing and noisy "anti colonial" rhetoric any more valid, although some of the politically correct and corrupt countries serving in the UN can be bought over as they have no concept of the Britishness of the Islands. They also hope that Obama's obvious hatred of the British for perceived slights will lend credence to their repeated discredited claims and lies

Their invasion in 82 was a colossal mistake, and their huge defeat was an immense public slap in the face to their petty political egos and national pride - **** them. Any other military adventurism will be nipped in the bud by the a DLG, an SSN and the current Falklands garrison

Let them rant, spill tears into their rather poor Gougouenheim Sauvignon Blanc and reminisce about things which might have been :E

[glojo]

Reading these latest posts actually asks more questions than they answer. It would appear there are a few Typhoon aircraft down sarf!! What would happen if these four aircraft were removed from the equation whilst on the ground! What if the run way were damaged? What if the opposition decided the kick-off would be after 5pm during the week, or perish the thought, they attacked at the week-end!

We can all talk a good fight but the defensive capabilities of a few Typhoons is not confidence inspiring :uhoh::uhoh: I accept they are probably a decent fighter aircraft but the opposition might not play the type of game where the benefits of this aircraft might be of use?


I cannot even begin to consider the political ramifications of a second conflict; we lost too many good men in the first one, to now simply roll over.

[Jabba_TG12]

"isn't the true limitation of one's own GBAD assets measured against the compartive quality of the assumed opposition?"

Arguably yes. Considering the level of the threat to MPA, it could be easily argued that it isnt worth our while investing in a solution similar to Patriot. As yet, I'm not aware of any SEAD assets or ordanance that is or is not in the Argentine arsenal. I'd like to think though that should they acquire such weapons, however crude/outdated from anywhere that HMG would take a view on how such assets may tip the balance away from the defenders of the Islands - the radar sites are completely static and so far as I'm aware have never been able to defend themselves against any type of attack. Apart from Blowpipe Det's in the 80's, its been an open secret that these sites would be sacrificed and left to their own devices if the balloon went up.

"Are the Argentine forces in any position to exploit any 'weaknesses' in UK GBAD assets in the Falklnads given the complete lack of support said forces have experienced from their government over the last 29 years?"

As it stands at the moment, short of Arg Special Forces, I do not have any inside knowledge or access to classified info as to what HMG perceives the direct threat to MPA or the mountain sites to be. The short answer is "I sincerely hope not", although saying that they cannot now does not mean they never will be. I'm not sure I'd agree with you about complete lack of support. Under-resourced, under-financed in some respects, maybe. But complete lack of support I think might be pushing it.


"As a 'for instance' it is believed by many sources that the only ground attack a/c the Argentine military can muster in any numbers at the moment are some A4s and a small number of Pucura. Just how 'limited' would GBAD assets need to be in order to allow subsonic and short-legged a/c such as these to approach the Falklands?"

From my own recollection of MPA and FIADGE, I am not aware of any electronic warfare threat to GBAD or, as I said before, any SEAD capability that they may or may not have. Doesnt mean none exists or none is going to exist, should the Argentines acquire such platforms. The A4's and Pucara's are incidental. The keys to the whole piece revolve around the size and dispersal of the FI garrison (much reduced over the last 10-12 years or so), the resident naval presence (likewise) and the amount of Typhoons. Woodward's scenario was based on an incident or series of incidents at the edges of the FIPZ that would drag the airworthy Typhoons away from protecting MPA, long enough for an airborne commando assault to start taking the airfield. As soon as the first sets of wheels touch the tarmac, or the first sets of boots land on the ground, it is then too late. The Typhoons part in proceedings is then utterly redundant.

Is it possible to reach MPA by air without being spotted by the mountain sites? Hell yes. Always has been. Particularly if you're distracting attention elsewhere.

And, as I say, its not about now, its about four or five years hence. God knows what state GBAD will be in by then - I'm not aware of any other GBAD asset procurement programme to replace Rapier and other platforms - plus reduced army and air force manning, plus decreasing the amount of squadrons, plus more demand elsewhere on the Herc fleet and FSTA taking over from the VC10's, no LRMPA, last of the T42s gone - and however many SSGN's we've got, they cannot be everywhere. Likewise, SSN's. Good as they are, they still have vulnerabilities and if they're being chased over the southern oceans by Argentine Subs or ASW assets, they have to spend more time staying safe and less time being a threat to the Argies themselves. And, from a quickly executed prosecution of an airfield capture, they're somewhat superfluous.

The best way to recapture the Islands is not to lose them in the first place. And the only way we'll do that, if we are not going to make a sizeable presence there is to ensure we can reinforce quickly and effectively. That capability, plus the heavy reliance on Intel sources as opposed to a standing force to give you heads up warning and to deter agression is a rubber band I personally being stretched more and more thinly.

[engineer(retard)]

Carrying on with the what ifs... If the Argentinians managed to take over MPA, what are the chances of another Corporate style operation succeeding when the new incumbents have a fully functioning airfield, instead of the limited capabilities of Port Stanley.

[FODPlod]

glojo - I hope you're not suggesting something as implausible as an attack by SF.Special Air Service (SAS) - Raid On Pebble Island (http://www.eliteukforces.info/special-air-service/sas-operations/pebble-island/)
Tactical Divers Group (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_Divers_Group)

[Jabba_TG12]

Glojo:

Thats exactly what I'm getting at.

Engineer#

Absolutely non existant, I would venture.

[engineer(retard)]

Jabba - So would I - The answer to Woodwards questions is not fund the carriers but incumbent support eg Typhoons, AD etc.

[Jabba_TG12]

Yep Engineer, I'd guess so. If you value it, make sure you protect it accordingly so that you dont lose it in the first place. If that means more Typhoons, troops and AD Destroyers, then yes. That is the bill you must pay.

[DADDY-OH!]

In recent years I have operated the Airbridge to the Falklands & a couple of months ago had the pleasure of joining some of the EGYP resident civvies on their weekly Stanley 'walkabout', one afternoon. After some refreshments, they set up camp in The Globe. I went for a wander.

On this particular day, a large cruise liner was moored near Stanley with the endless shuttles by the smaller craft depositing literally hundreds of tourists at the wharf in the centre of Stanley, all toting Canon', kagoul & curiosity.

I discretely showed my ID to one of the minibus drivers who had come to taxi the tourists and asked for directions to the Museum, the driver winked & nodded to the vacant front passenger seat. Once aboard & underway, I was aware that the vast majority of trade was from the US' & Canada. This is where I got an insight into what your average US' citizen knows about the Falkland Islands. One of the more vocal had a 'New England' accent, & was sharing his 'knowledge' gleaned from an his friends who staff an Argentine steak restaurant he frequents back home, with tacit agreeing nods from his entourage of about a dozen or so. This is what I 'learned'.

1) He said he was comfortable speaking English because the primary language of the Islands is Spanish.

2) The Brits invaded the islands just before WW1 in order to have a South Atlantic base to harass German interests in South West Africa & South America, herding the Argentine settlers into concentration camps before forced deportation.

3) When asked why all the streets were devoid of Brit Military personnel, his reply was it was probably due to strained relations between Argentina & the Brits, the Argentinian Government demanding that no British personnel can be allowed on the streets whilst the Islands were under occupation & dispute resolved.

By now we had reached the museum & were vacating the bus when the Colonial asked the driver in Spanish what time the bus would be leaving the museum. The driver looked blankly at the offender who continued to dig his hole until one of Canadians shouted to the Septic, advising him to ask again in English, which he did & the old boy behind the wheel smiled & said very, very slowly "In ... One... Hour", the Septic stepped back, his followers confused & aghast, and asked, "You speak English???" to which the driver replied "Yes, a little". One of the Septic's disciples meekly asked, "How come?" The driver's reply squeezed the last of any dignity from the scarlet faced, squirming "Cwoffee" drinker by simply saying,"For it be my Mother tongue.... and that of all natives of these Islands. See you all in an hour".

My, how the 2 Canadian couples & I laughed.

Reluctantly spurning the invitation of the Cannucks to join their party, I decided to tag along the American group to see what they made of the tour of the museum. Again surprise at the tour guide's 'American' names, their 'flarless' English accents, the way the tour guide (who was 12 in April 1982) differentiated between the Argentine Invasion & the British Liberation & smiled when she had to correct the dissenters that the Brits didn't 'Invade' the Islands in 1982.
The short bus journey back to the wharf was a fairly silent affair. The only sound being that of our vociferous Colonial licking his wounds. Upon arrival at the wharf, it was readily apparent that for quite a few Septics, the run ashore had been an enlightening experience. A few of the startling 'revelations' shared were:

The place hadn't changed much since the old photographs in the Museum
The street names were in English, not Spanish
The vehicles & roadsigns were on the 'British' side of the road, as were the steering wheels.
Very few people appeared to speak Spanish, in fact everybody spoke English just like Brits
None of the natives looked Latino.
All the flags featured the British Flag (as does Hawaii pointed out by one of them)
A couple of the entourage who had served in the US military, stationed in the UK, stated that if you didn't know you were 8000 miles away from Europe, you'd think you were in Great Britain.
The pubs were just like British Pubs.

At this point, I wandered up the hill to rejoin my party at The Globe were I was met with an urgent beckoning & had the enviable honour to be introduced to a man called Don. Don was Rex Hunt's driver, a true legend & the only man to kill an Argentine Special Forces invader on that night in early April 1982, albeit being a civvie armed with a 12 Bore shotgun guarding the flagpole of his Governor's Residence from the kitchen back door. I sat & listened to him for hours, plying him with Diet Coke (at his request). What a treasure trove of information, opinion & observation he is.

He said that he can tell the difference in regional Argentine accents & takes great delight in making some of the 'Tourists' squirm when they come ashore from the visiting Liners, pretending to be Brazilian or Chilean.

Some of you may be thinking, what has my post to do with any 'Impending Falklands Crisis'. Well, my theory is that people need educating about it all.

EVERYBODY who neither knows the truth about these Islands nor the history, pride & passion of those who were born & bred there, fought for & served there needs educating about the Falklands. More could be done to achieve this. From encouraging trade & tourism to the Islands to bringing the history of the Islands into peoples homes. TV should show more programmes about these Islands every year on the anniversary of the Argentine Invasion in April through to June when the Liberators forced the unconditional surrender of the Argentines. Films made for TV such as the brilliant 'Tumbledown' & 'An Ungentlemanly Act', should be given to the US TV Networks who have a growing appetite for bespoke British TV productions.

I don't think the Argentines have the mokie or cohonez to make a serious attempt to grab the Falkands as they did in 1982. These days those Islands are defended a hell of a lot better than a 'Dads Army' of local volunteers & Royal Navy Ice Patrol Ship with a boarding party of Royal Marines. Have they replaced the vast (proportionally) number of aircraft they lost, has the 'new' General Belgrano been sourced? Is the Vienticento De Mayo seaworthy?

Could the Argentines afford to have South American nations such as Chile, Uruguay, Brazil & Venezuela taking up the cause of Continental Solidarity? Chile already recognises the Falkland Islands Government & the MoD employ quite a few Chileans on the base, from one of the poorest areas of Chile. I can't see them wanting to pay anymore than lip service to their old foe, the Argies.
Uruguay can't afford to take sides because if oil is found in viable quantities in the basins around the Falklands and Argentina has isolated itself from any lucrative support work, then Uruguay & the port of Montevideo being strategically the closest major friendly port would gain immensely.
Brazil is an unpredictable one. It doesn't need to court UK trade as much anymore & could seize this chance to show it is the regional Superpower.
Venezuela, well, wouldn't any alliance between Argentina & Venezuela risk polarising the argument to Argentina's detriment? Forcing the US' to remain 'Neutral' (again) at the least or joining our side, wholeheartedly, just for the chance to give Chavez the Chav a bit of a kicking?

My solution: Let the world see how British (and how Un-Argentine) these Islands are & their inhabitants want to be. And if ANY diplomatic solution needs instigating, all the UN could do under International Law is offer the Islanders a vote on self determination. The sooner this happens, the sooner the matter can be put to bed & the sooner the Argentine Political Apparatchiks can cease using the Islands as a topic for whipping up jingoistic sentiment.

Discuss.

P.S. Don also said that Major Patricio Dowling who was the Argentine Military Intelligence Officer who made Don drive him back from Stanley Airport when Governor Rex Hunt & his wife were deported from the Islands post Argentine Invasion with his (Dowling's) pistol pointing in the back of Don's head, in a 'Bomber' Cab' over largely unpaved roads. Apparently Dowling was of Irish decent, fervently anti-British & wanted to summarily execute some of the Islanders & 'remove' some to Argentina. Don also said that 'Dowling' is alive & well & living in a country close to the UK, that recently received a substantial financial bailout from the UK. Would Dowling's actions & intentions be deemed a War Crime?

[glojo]

glojo - I hope you're not suggesting something as implausible as an attack by SF.

Hi Fodplod and others :)

All I am tactfully trying to say is

NEVER, ever underestimate the capabilities of your enemy!! :uhoh::uhoh:

During that last conflict the skills of those very brave Argentinian pilots were clear for us all to see. However they do not possess fourth generation fighter aircraft. It would be naive to expect them to play any game to the rules we want!

Far better to remove a threat out of its comfort zone as opposed to trying to tackle it head on.

I enjoyed reading that nice post by Daddy-Oh..... but we should take aboard what he was saying about the freedom folks have to enter the Falkland Islands!! From my experience with folks from across the pond, most of them are unaware of even where the Falklands are, let alone its history!

It is no good for us all to say there will NOT be an invasion, we have been there, said that and paid a very, very expensive price for making that wrong assumption. (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1546823/Falklands-and-Iraq-intelligence-failures.html)

We will soon be quitting Afghanistan and before all those assets get sold on eBay.... Some of them might be sent south to strengthening the garrison on that far away land.

[SASless]

I had similar thoughts as Glojo....except I took even a more basic view. With a grand total of four....as in a finger four formation if all were up at the same time...and an availibility rate in the 70's...errr...now we are at three....and as the basic formation is two....leaving one either on the ground or overhead acting as a sentinel...to cover a very large area 24 hours a day....7 days a week. Now I know the Typyhoon is supposed to be the Cat's Hindend and all...and the RAF masters of their realm....but let's be real here.

Add in some of the options previously mentioned....and I can see it being a bit difficult for the force extant to handle a single mass raid which saturates the home boys....then followed up by an immediate second raid that puts paid to the runway and assorted support facilities.

The Enemy is thinking ahead just as our side is doing!

Granted all plans are effective right up to the instant contact with the opposing force takes place....then it falls back to who is both the best and the luckiest.

[Airborne Aircrew]

then followed up by an immediate second raid that puts paid to the runway and assorted support facilities

Then we need to make sure we keep our Airborne assets... Oh, that's right... they haven't been used since Suez so we're thinking of scrapping them... :ugh:

[jamesdevice]

the strength of the Falklands defence forces would become irrelevant if the Argies occupied Ascension first.
Airborne surprise assault using three or four 747's arriving unannounced, followed by a few Super Etendards tankered in once the runway was secured.
No need for air defence - they'd just need the anti-ship Etendards
They wouldn't need to hold it for long - just long enough to break the supply line while they invaded the Falklands and dug in. If they did it just before the South Atlantic winter began, they'd have several months to fly defences into Mount Pleasant
The USA may moan, but if it was presented to the UN as a temporary measure to protect themselves while the "reposession" took place they could spin it out long enough until they felt it was safe to withdraw

[Fire 'n' Forget]

Don't forget that the RAF sent down an AWACS recently to operate from MPA. This would allow the Typhoons to operate With full L16 awareness radars off. I believe the AWACS also has a pretty decent maritime capability so no major surface fleet could possibly make it through undetected. As for only having 4 Typhoons down at MPA, during tension this would be reinforced surely.

[ZH875]

As for only having 4 Typhoons down at MPA, during tension this would be reinforced surely.


Hahahahaha I have not had such a good laugh in ages. We would have to get them there, and crews and tankers are not freely available, being used elsewhere.


Were the Falklands defences upped during 'tension' before the invasion in '82, nope, thought not.

[Obi Wan Russell]

ZH875 wrote:
Were the Falklands defences upped during 'tension' before the invasion in '82, nope, thought not.

Actually they were, the Garrison of 40 RM Commandos was doubled, to 80! Due to the fact the invasion occurred when they were changing over from one detachment to their relief. During the initial fighting, one group with an anti tank weapon (Carl Gustav?) asked their commander for orders as to which targets should have priority, and when asked what targets they had in their sights was told "Target one is an Aircraft Carrier, Target two is a destroyer, Target three is a transport..." but they had to shift position before they got their reply!

[glojo]

In the good olde days of that 'Special Relationship' we could rely on the USA to at least be quietly supportive of the stance we might take regarding these islands but does anyone seriously believe we still have that type of relationship?

I had to look up what the Spanish name was for the Falklands but it flows off the lips of the Obama administration (http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/nilegardiner/100043042/hillary-clinton-slaps-britain-in-the-face-again-over-the-falklands/). Are we to accept this wording was not deliberate, was not said to convey a message?

During the first conflict Argentina would use Lear jets to divert air cover away from the area they wanted to attack with their aircraft. I am guessing that they would have improved on that ruse and honed their skills.

I still cannot get over the number of aircraft we have to protect those islands :uhoh::uhoh::uhoh::uhoh:

[DADDY-OH!]

Jamesdevice

I agree, the weak link in the chain is ASI, however, that little lump of lava has a fair bit of high level diplomatic & legal protection.

1) Ascension is a British Overseas Territory with its own Government.
2) The runway & taxiway's are leased to & maintained by the USAF, therefore US Territory & the airfield has FAA employed US citizens who constitute ATC.
3) The RAF/MoD operate the apron.

So any Argentine effort to 'neutralise' Azzie would result in Argentina invading ANOTHER foreign island, over 2000 nm from BA & making a surprise attack on a US' Air Force Base, albeit an AAF.

It wouldn't take much for either a determined Argentine SF team or the, generally ex-UK Armed Forces personnel that make up the various units at the Airhead from SERCO, VT et al to block the runway. Any Argie attempt would incur the wrath of the US State Dept., Military & would risk losing any diplomatic support.

Beating their hairy, Latino chests, attempted face-saving by dragging the Falklands/Malvinas topic out of the cupboard for the six months leading up to an election, just to whip up jingoism for a desired election result is an Argentine tactic we are just going to have to get used to. However 'Teddy Throwing', 'Bottom-Lip Protruding' political & diplomatic goading & posturing is their only option. It is their only, realistic, practical, credible, viable & most importantly moral & legal option.

As for the Obama circus deliberately terming the Falkland Islands 'Malvinas' how do we know it isn't just the State Dept's attempt to keep the Argies keeping Chavez at arms length?

[Mike7777777]

As long as we have a boat down there with Tomahawks and whatever fish the RN use these days then there isn't going to be a problem. Although we also need politicos with the will to win, thus ensuring that the rules of engagement are fair and equitable. Difficult to believe that the former colonials would do anything other than support the Brits after the last 20 years or so, but there we are.

[The Old Fat One]

Airborne surprise assault using three or four 747's arriving unannounced, followed by a few Super Etendards tankered in once the runway was secured.
No need for air defence - they'd just need the anti-ship Etendards



Do you get off on this claptrap?

[jamesdevice]

all very well as long as we have a free sub that isn't on station in the Med or Indian Ocean / Red Sea, isn't broke or stranded on a sand bank, or refitting

And how far is 20 Tomahawks going to go? And where does it go for refills?

Cruise missiles are a waste of time unless you can deliver them in groups of 100's at a time

[jamesdevice]

"Do you get off on this claptrap? "
No - do you get off on being a short sighted fool?

[Mike7777777]

Fortunately, the reality is that we don't even need a boat down there, although we do need the opposition to believe that we have a boat down there.

What can a sub do? Belgrano.

[racedo]

Why follow the same pattern as done before when all need to do is load up a Cruise liner or two with "Tourists" removing the real ones and keeping them incommunicado for a week while you do a visit.

At this point in time you have your Special Forces ashore to shut down Air Defense capability and watch the rest occur.

Lets face it South Georgia was invaded first by (alledged) scrap metal merchants.

[The Old Fat One]

"Do you get off on this claptrap? "
No - do you get off on being a short sighted fool?


A short sighted fool with several hundred hours operating out of ASI and who wears a Falklands medal. A short sighted fool with a Masters Degree in International Relations. A short sighted fool who has studied and taught military doctrine and tactics...and a short sighted fool who has commanded men and machines all over the globe.

You my friend are embarrasing yourself. Best stick to face thingy

[Airborne Aircrew]

Lets face it South Georgia was invaded first by (alledged) scrap metal merchants.

That's Pikeys for you... :}

Well... Let's be honest... This discussion is departing into a fantasy world...

[Earl of Rochester]

.
Now the Argentine :mad: is saying that the UK will be held responsible if the first Falklans defector is killed - an incident which the :mad: and her cronies are likely to arrange.

Argentina Threatens UK over Nationality Switch (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/falklandislands/8590495/Argentina-warns-Britain-over-Falklands-nationality-switch.html)

There is no doubt in my mind that the :mad: is wanting to pick a fight. She knows full well that at present we wouldn't so much as send a row boat in their direction and she and her posse are guaging Britain's responses with increasing frequency.

If they don't try another outright invasion they will try something - that much seems apparent!

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-kTG-bdJEPZ0/TgEQvPKECiI/AAAAAAAADmw/pOjT3iS-uZE/a%252520Cristina%252520kirchner.jpg
Argentinian President Cristina Kirchner (aka the :mad:) wants the 'Malvinas' to be 'returned' to Argentina and which action she believes will engrave her name into Argentina's history.

[XL319]

You would have thought the Argies would have learn't their lesson by now. I hope Kirchner ends up with egg on her face!

My only concern is the fact that the Tories have sold off our carrier fleet which leaves us in dire straits if something does kick off. I'm sure we have a few subs near by.

[racedo]

Well... Let's be honest... This discussion is departing into a fantasy world...

Ah you mean the "Intelligence" world, now there is an Oxymoron.

TBH shoving lots of people onto Civilian vessels as a means of getting them close to a target never happens :cool: or did I imagine BA149 Kuwait 1990.....

[Airborne Aircrew]

She knows full well that at present we wouldn't so much as send a row boat in their direction and she and her posse are guaging Britain's responses with increasing frequency.

If they don't try another outright invasion they will try something - that much seems apparent!

She's a woman... She'll niggle and poke and mess with you till you get peeved enough to do something she can point the finger of blame at you. If we ignore her long enough she'll withhold sex from the entire UK... :rolleyes:

[racedo]

we ignore her long enough she'll withhold sex from the entire UK..

She definitely a brown bagger.

[glojo]

As for the Obama circus deliberately terming the Falkland Islands 'Malvinas' how do we know it isn't just the State Dept's attempt to keep the Argies keeping Chavez at arms length? I sincerely hope your assessment is correct but sadly I fear their State Department would not play games like that. It is just totally wrong for them to use that terminology.

Tomawk missiles are a different era to my time playing silly fools, so please forgive this question if it is out of order.

Would we need permission from the US government to fire these missiles, and are we reliant on the GPS system to use them?

As you can guess, I do not trust the current incumbent to honour our so called 'Special Relationship'.

TBH shoving lots of people onto Civilian vessels as a means of getting them close to a target never happens http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/cool.gif or did I imagine BA149 Kuwait 1990..... By Air, Land or sea (On it, or under it)

Be prepared for everything, and surprised by nothing. That would be the ideal philosophy of those that are tasked with protecting those islands.

[RichieD]

The helpfull Stacker said: "...have some quite useful ground-based radar." :ok:

Jabba TG12 said:
"On unmanned sites subject to known limitations. And, given how often hardware limitations on the older now superceded platforms in the 80's and 90's used to leave holes, the lack of a permanently assigned Area Air Defence DDG potentially exacerbates the situation."

Politely suggest you do your homwork before posting...

[Vortex what...ouch!]

Quote:
"Do you get off on this claptrap? "
No - do you get off on being a short sighted fool?

A short sighted fool with several hundred hours operating out of ASI and who wears a Falklands medal. A short sighted fool with a Masters Degree in International Relations. A short sighted fool who has studied and taught military doctrine and tactics...and a short sighted fool who has commanded men and machines all over the globe.

You my friend are embarrasing yourself. Best stick to face thingy

Not nearly as much as you are embarrassing yourself. 'Look at me and how clever and heroic I am', do get over yourself mate and stop taking it too seriously.

Perhaps with your Masters in international relations you can get on topic and indulge us with your views on Argentina's intentions for the Falklands? I don't have a Masters, but I did live in Argentina so will be really interested in your informed opinion. :rolleyes:

[500N]

Is she trying to be another Evita ?

It would be highly embarrassing for the Argies if they did try something
and then got kicked in the teeth again, especially if it escalated and a few
bits of equipment on some of the air bases ended up in pieces. Maybe if
they do try something the UK shouldn't hold back this time and should
try to destroy all the equipment the Argy Armed forces have even if it
is on home soil or in port.

And they could drop of the Falkland Islander who just became an Argy
to live with Vortex :O
.

[jamesdevice]

"Masters in international relations"
= Degree in Self-Importance and B******t

[E-Spy]

AFAIK the guy who has changed nationality only did it to be closer to his children by an Argentinian woman, and the fact that the Argies made it so difficult for him to do so with a UK passport. The Arg. Government have spun this into some kind of coup, when they have actually forced his hand into abandoning (and upsetting) his home islands.

Spin wins again.....

[Jabba_TG12]

RichieD:

Equally respectfully, there is only so much homework I can do from 8000 miles away and having been out of the services for 12 years, although still reasonably close to the air defence world until a few months ago.

The 101's do have limitations. The AR3D's in the 80's and 90's also had quite notable limitations, I know. I remember being sat in a 259 cabin for long enough (weeks at a time) because the AR3D was shagged.

The T42 roulement for FI is shared with the caribbean guardship, IIRC, which is coming to an end. There arent many 42's left, and the 45's I dont think have been sent on this roulement yet, although I would happily stand corrected. Any other boat in the area, again though I'll happily stand corrected is not going to have the radar picquet/area air defence capability of a 42.

I'll gladly admit to a degree of speculation and that my homework my be somewhat out of date, but I know what I saw on my often and frequent tours on those sites. I went there often enough. :ugh:

[DADDY-OH!]

Glojo

As mere mortals, we are not privy to the private conversations between world leaders & who knows what has been said, inferred & assured in private?

But surely if the Obama & the State Dept. hadn't discretely told the UK & Argentina the same message i.e. "We, The US', support peoples right to self determination through the democratic process..." which is commensurate with their line in just about every other recent territorial & political dispute, we would have seen the signs.

Whether it was on the front page of the daily editions of Clarin in downtown BA, or a token, discrete bolstering of CBFFI's in-theatre assets & capabilities, the signs would be there for all to see. But what do we see? Griselda of The Terrahawks making nothing than attacks on the UK's colonial demise & CMTCD doing nothing about it.

And if the self determination debate makes it as far as the UN, with the Kirschner regime making overtures about forcing out imperialistic, colonial forces, then surely they'd know that opens the way for indigenous peoples such as the Atacaman, Fuegian, Patagonan et al to demand their right to self determination under the same motion. Mass demos down Florida Street & in the Parque Colon, I think.

But I bet the Strategy Planners on both sides have noticed one fact that's as obvious as a dog's lipstick. If it looks as though the Argies are assembling a force in Puerto Belgrano or anywhere else & the decision was taken to quit Afghan' & move troops the Falklands very promptly, & you draw a great circle track between the two places, the aforementioned small lump of lava is only a couple of hundred miles off track. In fact, looking at Google Earth, the track takes it right over most of the African countries we've just pledged all that lovely aid to.

For the time being, the Argies will continue to test, probe, sabre rattle, pontificate & cry foul knowing full well we are stretched to the limit. But they also know we went to war once already over this collection of rocks & sheep farmers. And we will do it again. After all if our brave, selfless, underpaid, under equipped, under valued, men & women HAD to fight anywhere on this planet where would the electorate demand they do it? In the poppy fields of Helmand or for safety, security & rights of democratic native English speaking subjects, sharing the same thoughts, ideology, values & Head of State?

Personally, I'd tempt the Argies into trying to make a grab for the Islands with another Astute or two down there tailing any invasion force. The minute they cross the EZ, I'd give the order to sink the transports & Carrier & pound the hell out of them all the way back home. I would only call off the hounds when the Argies agreed to accept the right of the Islanders to determine their own future & that it is NEVER questioned again.

Discuss.

[Airborne Aircrew]

Unashamedly cross posted from RockNet...

The MoD today announced plans for a huge, heavily fortified timeshare facility, overlooking the beaches and minefields of the popular Falkland Islands. The islands have never been so sought-after, and the British military are keen to promote its facilities to retiring members of the armed forces.

“The new facilities are bound to be popular, the owners will be able to look straight out to sea. In fact, the lease agreement makes it compulsory, for a minimum of 4 hours a day”, explained Vice-Admiral Daley. “If they do spot anything suspicious, they should ring this siren.”

The resort features some sheltered housing, for the more infirm retirees. “It’s some of the most sheltered accommodation we’ve ever built: up to 8 foot thick in places. A warden is on-hand at all times, to assist with household tasks, shopping or ship identification. And they all feature security doors and windows, that can resist attack for up to 3 days”.

There are sports to keep the residents active, from small-bore pistol shooting to large-bore anti-aircraft drilling. “Games consoles such as the Wii are well-known for keeping the elderly sharp. They really love playing Tour of Duty and Medal of Honor”. The site features low-level bird tables to feed the penguins, a golf course with plenty of bunkers and pedalos are available for hire, with very low radar signatures.

Admiral Daley is hoping to encourage retired servicemen from other friendly nations. “we’re building some ‘flat top’ ferries jointly with the French, but it’s a little problematic. The British contingent complain about the food, and the French keep surrendering to oil rigs.”

http://www.hqrafregiment.net/images/smilies/laughingat.gif

[DADDY-OH!]

AA

Priceless!!:D

[The Old Fat One]

Apologies if I came over all up myself, but I felt the need to establish a little credibility.

As to taking it too seriously,,,that's seems a little illogical. My first post indicated how seriously I took the idea of 747's landing at Wideawake and disgorging argie troops...ie about a seriously as I take most Hollywood action movies.

So am I too flippant or too serious or just too damm old and therefore of no relevance?

Obviously experience, knowledge and qualifications don't count for much with you chaps so I'll jog on by. Have a nice day.

PS

Never claimed to know much about Argentina...just implied (seriously or unseriously) that they ain't gonna invade Ascension Island. I'm quietly confident I'm right.

[Lonewolf_50]

Tomahawks, in response to a query above.

1. The Brits AFAIK do not need US permission to launch. I seriously doubt the MoD would have bought them with such a string attached.

2. There is GPS and then there is GPS. Depending upon the mod and config of your Tomahawk (and recalling its original design to use preloaded terrain features to arrive at and hit target) I will say with mild confidence that FAA class GPS will get you close enough, at which point the resident maps and map matching function guides the end game target strike.

I won't comment further, for more than OPSEC reasons.

I am a few years out of date on Tomahawk, but my reading on the topic leads me to believe that they've only gotten better, and more flexible, particularly with the new "loiter" mod. No idea which modifications and features have crossed the pond.

[TEEEJ]

DADDY-OH wrote,

I'd give the order to sink the transports & Carrier & pound the hell out of them all the way back home.

The Argentine carrier, Veinticinco_de_Mayo, was retired in the late 1990s and went off to the scrapyard a few years later. The Argentines rejected the Brazilian carrier, Minas Gerais, as a replacement.

TJ

[Tourist]

Of course Argentina flying an airliner unannounced to the Falklands and landing without permission has precedence.....

Twice!

[Finningley Boy]

So..... do we imagine that Dave adequate resources to meet current challenges Cameron is at all concerned about the possibility of a second go by Argentina at the Falklands? Or is he perhaps, happier to go down in History as the Prime Minister who handed the Falklands back over to Argentina through his own lack of genuine resolve, preferring to be seen as the Tory PM who cared by substantially increase foreign aid?:confused:

Strikes me he "is definitely" going to have to make some kind of revised assessment of the SDSR before too long. Or his fate in the history books will be sealed.:uhoh:

FB:)

[DADDY-OH!]

TEEEJ

Well find me another target! :ok:

[Startrek3]

According to Admiral Woodward who was quoted in the Mail today we only have '4 ageing and ineffective Tornados' based at MPA - what happened to the Typhoon?????

[glojo]

According to Admiral Woodward who was quoted in the Mail today we only have '4 ageing and ineffective Tornados' based at MPA - what happened to the Typhoon????? I guess the typhoon season begins the end of June and maybe that replaces a far more localised smaller storm with a diameter from 50 metres to approximately 2 kilometres :ok:

Mind you with just four birds the season will never last very long :cool:

[ORAC]

Argentina launches naval campaign to isolate Falkland Islands (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/falklandislands/8936750/Argentina-launches-naval-campaign-to-isolate-Falkland-Islands.html)

Argentina has launched a naval campaign to isolate the Falkland Islands that has seen it detain Spanish fishing vessels on suspicion of breaking the country’s “blockade” of the seas around the British territories.

[Whenurhappy]

I hope that the Telegraph have been careless in the use 'blokade' when referring to the Argies. A Blockade is a hostile act - qv the Cuban Missile Crisis when the US established a 'quarantine' around Cuba - even they didn't use the word blockade!


The idea of settling retirees to consitute a reserve force in times of invasion or insurrection is nothing new. In the late Georgian and Victorian Eras, 'Fencibles' - retired regular troops - were granted a house, land, weapons, uniform and acoutrements in return for Parading a couple of times a month, and a liability to be mobilised. In spite of the incorrect entry in Wkipedia, they served in Ireland, India and New Zealand with distinction, and units were alseo established in Southern England to repel teh french. Who knows? There's be a fair few ex Servicement who'd fancy living in the FI, raising sheep and carrying a gun.

[racedo]

There's be a fair few ex Servicement who'd fancy living in the FI, raising sheep and carrying a gun.

If they opened it up and decent accomodation I think it would be vastly oversubscribed.

[Willard Whyte]

There's be a fair few ex Servicement who'd fancy living in the FI, raising sheep and carrying a gun.

I'd do it. As long as it's the gun I have to take to bed.

[Mach Two]

WW, don't start pretending you're that picky!! :E

[jamesdevice]

You're not Welsh then Willard. They're the obvious candidates

[jamesdevice]

In retrospect we should have given the residents of Hong Kong the option of moving to the Falklands. Given their entrepenurial skills they could have opened up a whole new commercial gateway to south america
And I'm sure the Argies wouldn't have wanted to absorb a large number of Chinese

[oldmansquipper]

If the Argies get beligerent again we can send all our carriers down (suggest scuttleing them as block ships in the River Plate estuary - although that idea didn`t work to well for Adolf). We could lease back the Harriers from the USMC, get the Vulcan back in action, tank both the remaining UK Typhoons to ascention to join up with a Tonker and conscript the Portsmouth ACF into the Marines. This would give us the fighting force necessary to defend our territory. Simples!

And.....We should not forget that the French will kindly be helping in our defence as well (At least, they said they would a while ago....before the latest Euro row) and you know we can trust them....

In the words of Armstrong & Miller ......Keep calm & carry on & sh*t

;)

[melmothtw]

jamesdevice, was your reference to the Welsh in view of the fact that they lost more men per capita during the war than any other nation from the UK?

[500N]

"If the Argies get beligerent again"

I hope the UK mines the hell out of Stanley Harbour and other areas to at least make it hard for them.

.

[glojo]

jamesdevice, was your reference to the Welsh in view of the fact that they lost more men per capita during the war than any other nation from the UK? I suspect it is because they are usually on first name terms with both Baaa bara and Maaaa tilda but I could be wrong.

I prefer pheasant plucking but each to their own.

[green granite]

If the Argies get beligerent again we can send all our carriers down (suggest scuttleing them as block ships in the River Plate estuary - although that idea didn`t work to well for Adolf). We could lease back the Harriers from the USMC, get the Vulcan back in action, tank both the remaining UK Typhoons to ascention to join up with a Tonker and conscript the Portsmouth ACF into the Marines. This would give us the fighting force necessary to defend our territory. Simples!

Wouldn't be easier to lease a couple of USAF B1Bs? After all at 84 500lb bombs per aircraft it should be a quick way of sorting it out. :E:E

[oldmansquipper]

B1B? OK - Its a fair cop! - out of 84 bombs..... it might get more than 1 on the runway!

I`ll get my coat...:ooh:

[jamesdevice]

"I suspect it is because they are usually on first name terms with both Baaa bara and Maaaa tilda but I could be wrong."

Don't forget Maaaaartha and Maaaable as well

[Thud_and_Blunder]

QRoHbugpT0g


...Maybe the Argentines just want a more modern runway from which to play with their toys?

[Buster Hyman]

Argentina might, unwittingly, have gained an ally of sorts, now that the EU is pissed off with the Poms. I wonder if there's anything they might exploit?

[Courtney Mil]

Pissed off with the Poms? Naaa! They're used to us acting like petulent teenagers. Anyway, what they going to do? Make us give away the Falklands?

[500N]

"Anyway, what they going to do? Make us give away the Falklands?"

They will do just like the UN does, postulate, chest beat and issue strongly worded statements and if the country they are aimed at doesn't want to take any notice, it won't.

[Courtney Mil]

Yeah, that's right! I say "bring it on". All it took to sort them out last time was 111 ships, the Harrier Force, Sea Harrier, Nimrod, Victor Tankers, loads of helos, a Vulcan, Phantoms on Ascension and a Prime Minister with an iron will.

So what's to stop us doing it again??? Oh, yes. Maggie's not PM any more, is she?

[cazatou]

It was not just Lady T as Prime Minister but the significant number of Cabinet Ministers who had served in the Military. Lord Carrington (for example) had been a Tank Commander in Guards Armoured Division. The Leader of the Opposition had served in the RN in WW2 and had been Commissioned from the Ranks.

Very few MP's today have Military experience.

[Courtney Mil]

Hmm. Think I ended up making the wrong point there, but never mind.

In 1977, 216 out of 630 MPs were ex military. Twenty years later it was down to 60 out of 658. I think the total now is about 10. The only current Labour MP with Mil experience is Major Eric Joyce (the first MP to claim more than £1 million in expenses).

Every prime minister from 1940 to 1963 had served as an infantry officer in WW1. Times change, I guess.

Courtney

[Dunky]

Ah, Eric Joyce, who was a jock, not universally loved by his peers. Left the Army to go to Uni, then rejoined as an education officer. Done for drink driving after hitting some road furniture last year near the BP refinery in Grangemouth.

[Courtney Mil]

So he probably doesn't count. Make that nine, then!

[ninja-lewis]

Courtney Mil:
"The only current Labour MP with Mil experience is Major Eric Joyce (the first MP to claim more than £1 million in expenses"

Bit out of date. Major Dan Jarvis, The Parachute Regiment, won the Barnsley Central by-election this year on behalf of Labour. Joined in 1997 and served in Kosovo, Sierra Leone, Northern Ireland, Iraq and Afghanistan twice (first time as part of the reconnaissance team that assessed Helmand in 2005-6 and latterly as a company commander with the Special Forces Support Group).

[Courtney Mil]

I stand corrected, Ninja.

[im from uranus]

BBC News - South American states ban Falklands vessels from ports (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-16280613)

[500N]

That's a dangerous move to make.

[rh200]

I'm a bit daft, why are they flying the Falklands flag and not the pommy one?

[Kitbag]

From the link above

Argentina's President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, who took over the presidency of the trade bloc from Mr Mujica, thanked her fellow presidents for the show of support.
Delivering a speech to the summit, she said: "I want to thank everyone for their immense solidarity with the Malvinas.
"But you should know that when you are signing something on the Malvinas in favour of Argentina you are also doing it in your own defence.
"Malvinas is not an Argentine cause, it is a global cause, because in the Malvinas they are taking our oil and fishing resources.
"And when there is need for more resources, those who are strong are going to look for them wherever and however they can."


The lady is gathering allies. Any chance the FCO have their fingers on the pulse this time?

[Big Tudor]

Announced on the same day as the Argentine under-secretary for foreign trade commits suicide. Coincidence?

[glojo]

If we want to talk dangerous......

I would love to have been a fly on the wall in the Argentine military when this request came in. Falklands defended by four Typhoon aircraft, two plus the tanker get diverted and if these get 'eliminated' then who is the caretaker?

In early June 2010 two Typhoons and the VC-10 air tanker based on the Falklands had to divert to Punta Arenas in Chile after poor weather closed Mount Pleasant. This required the aircraft to fly over Tierra del Fuego; authorization for this was given by the Argentinian Air Force. No doubt there was nervousness when the request had to be sent out, with how Argentina behaves about the islands and the planes going in and out of them!

[Kitbag]

To rh200; as I understand it because they, along with Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Gibraltar and several others are British Overseas territories, ie they are not part of the UK but acknowledge HM as the head of state. They have their own government, currency, flag etc but save a bundle by borrowing our Head of State and, I think, stuff like the FO.

[Courtney Mil]

Indeed, that is why they sail under thair own flag. I suspect it is a requirement. That's not to say that vessels can't be re-registered in another country to get around the blockade. It happens a lot.

[rh200]

but save a bundle by borrowing our Head of State and, I think, stuff like the FO.

We use ol Liz for our head of state, mind you we use the Yankee foreign office:p. The Falklands setup sounds like a claytons type country, from my view point you want to be a pom or you don't. No good having a valuable amount of whats left of Liz's armed forces over there and not being fully commited.

[500N]

rh200
And didn't ol Liz get a reception and a half over where you are the other month ?
Very impressive, as was the reception she got everywhere.

[Buster Hyman]

No good having a valuable amount of whats left of Liz's armed forces over there and not being fully commited.
Like Scotland you mean? :p

[Churchills Ghost]

Britain duts off war plans with call to send nuclear submarine to Falklands as Argentine joins forces with Brazil and Uruguay in overt anti-British stance designed to diminish the UK's standing in Latin America


http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/12/21/article-0-0F3FF6D000000578-788_634x358.jpg

Military chiefs are dusting off their plans for the defence of the Falklands after South American countries banned ships from the islands docking in their ports. Sources fear Prince William's six-month deployment to the South Atlantic as an air-sea rescue pilot next year could provoke more sabre-rattling. Yesterday Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner claimed Britain was ready to use its military to steal natural resources 'anywhere, anyhow'.

She said: 'They're currently taking our oil reserves and fish stocks from the Falklands but when they need more natural resources they will come and use force to steal them wherever and however they can.'Mercosur, the South American trading block which also includes Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay have agreed to ban boats sailing under the Falklands flag from docking at their ports – even though Paraguay does not even have a coastline.The ban affects around 25 ships – some of which are fishing vessels working for a Spanish company.

Argentina still claims the islands – held by Britain since the 1830s – are theirs, despite their crushing defeat in the 1982 Falklands War.Former Defence Secretary Liam Fox asked to see the war plans for the defence of the Falklands in 2010 and examined the plans twice as they were adapted. New Defence Secretary Philip Hammond, who took over in October, has also been briefed.

More (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2077296/Flashpoint-Falklands-Britain-dusts-war-plans-Argentina-turns-heat.html)

[500N]

Whilst not under estimating the enemy, 73,100 troops all on the mainland.

They have to get them to the islands first to be effective and with a much more
switched on UK, might be harder than they think. And then of course, if they did get them on the island, they would have to hold them, which has already proved "an island too far" before.

[rh200]

And didn't ol Liz get a reception and a half over where you are the other month ?


Yup!! even got to see her by accident, noticed the street intersections getting blocked off in one of her transits between events, so I pulled up for a gander.

[Courtney Mil]

An assessment from the experts:

Britain concerned about Falklands ship ban | Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/21/britain-falklands-mercosur-idUSL6E7NL21Q20111221)

[Not_a_boffin]

And then of course, if they did get them on the island, they would have to hold them, which has already proved "an island too far" before.

Without wishing to state the bleeding obvious, there was one major difference twixt then and now............ Only relevant of course, if we don't keep hold of them in the first place.

[TorqueOfTheDevil]

What an brilliant newspaper clipping! I'm so reassured now that I know we can get Tornado fighter jets and HMS Ocean + Apaches to the Falklands within days! And I love the sound of Royal Navy 'land craft' - is that like a 4-tonner or just the usual beaten-up Astra?

Such a shame, though, that HRH's 'six-month deployment' as an 'air-sea rescue' pilot is causing trouble.

Let me guess, is it from the Mail? Or maybe the Express?

[melmothtw]

More than a few things wrong with that infrographic:

"Pucara fighters dating back to the 1950s"

"25 attack helicopters" - a tooled-up Huey or JetRanger does not an Apache make.

I think essentially it all boils down to the one hunter killer submarine. So long as the Argentines have nothing to counter this there will be no invasion.

[Courtney Mil]

And we don't have any Tornado fighter jets, only Tornado bomber jets. The battalion of infantrymen are either in the sandpit or looking after the kids while their wives are all away singing.

[The Helpful Stacker]

And we don't have any Tornado fighter jets, only Tornado bomber jets.

The UK military hasn't had a 'bomber jet' since the Buccaneer was retired.

[randyrippley]

why don't we simply start an independance movement among the Welsh in Patagonia? Much of that province was settled by Welsh-speakers, not Spansh speakers and for much of the 20th century their culture was ruthlessly suppressed - even to the point of banning Welsh (or English) christian names

[[email protected]]

Christina is riding the wave of re-election from earlier this year but her country is divided and has an economy that is going down the tubes (again). Uruguayans don't actually like the Argentines that much and have probably agreed to this for the sake of a quiet life.

Interestingly, Uruguay has its own island dispute with Argentina over an island in the River Plate which the Argies decided would be better off flying their flag instead of Uruguay's.

Saw someone who purported to be an Argentine military pilot wearing a Malvinas badge (complete with Falklands map) on his arm this year - haven't laughed so hard for ages.

[COCL2]

I wonder what this is about?
From today's Buenos Aires Herald

"The head of the Navy, Admiral Jorge Godoy, requested removal from his post after being accused of illegal espionage. The Government chose Deputy Admiral Carlos Alberto Paz to take his place, a decision which was published today in the Official Gazette. By way of Decree 247, President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and Defence Minister Arturo Puricelli, accepted the request for the “voluntary removal” of Godoy, and therefore “relieving him of his duties as Navy General."


Wonder who he was spying for?

[Airborne Aircrew]

Interesting development...

Link (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/L/LT_ARGENTINA_MEDIA_CONTROL?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-12-22-18-19-05)

[HueyLoach]

I wonder what this is about?
From today's Buenos Aires Herald

"The head of the Navy, Admiral Jorge Godoy, requested removal from his post after being accused of illegal espionage. The Government chose Deputy Admiral Carlos Alberto Paz to take his place, a decision which was published today in the Official Gazette. By way of Decree 247, President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and Defence Minister Arturo Puricelli, accepted the request for the “voluntary removal” of Godoy, and therefore “relieving him of his duties as Navy General."


Wonder who he was spying for?
According to local press reports, he used navy intelligence to spy on political figures. := And Adm Godoy was a protege of the current government; he was the head of the navy for an unusual (unheard of) term of 8 years. :hmm:

[glad rag]

It's starting all over again. :sad:

Feking politicians, take the lot out and slot then and that's 50% of the worlds troubles sorted.

[B Fraser]

It appears that The Belgrano was heading towards the exclusion zone after all. IMHO as a civvy, if you send out a warship in time of war then you know exactly what you're getting into no matter which way you happen to be pointing at the time. If the watertight doors were indeed open as has been reported elsewhere then the consequences were inevitable.

Belgrano was heading to the Falklands, secret papers reveal - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/8965405/Belgrano-was-heading-to-the-Falklands-secret-papers-reveal.html)

[glojo]

By the very definition this vessel was a war - - - ship and to me it is academic what course the thing was steering or its destination.

Hopefully she was closed up at the appropriate damage control level but in reality she had no chance of survival!! The escorting vessels were extremely fortunate they did not end up sharing the sea bed with the Belgrano.

I understand the ship was hit by the much trusted type 48 torpedo but did they explode under or in the vessel?

To put things in perspective about damage control, this is what one torpedo can do to what I describe as a frigate (I believe the footage refers to it as something larger) click

That ship was a carcass, she was not carrying any munitions or any explosive type materials, the boilers were not operating, and no fuel in her tanks. I dread to think of how much further damage could have been caused by internal explosions.

A warship is not a healthy location to be, especially when those nasty submarines are lurking just beneath the waves!! Air attacks is one thing, but sneaky torpedoes knocking on your door without any warning is a whole different ball game... yes the incoming torpedo should be heard but in reality there is very little chance of avoiding the unavoidable :(

Respect to all those that fought in this conflict and long may the rights of those that live on those islands be preserved.

[Navaleye]

Belgrano was hit by 2 Mk8 ** torpedoes which were impact weapons and would not have the effect shown in the clip. Still very nasty though. Under the keel weapons were perfected much later and are usually one shot kills on anything short of aircraft carrier.

[glojo]

Hi Naval Eye thanks for the update... It all happened after my time, although sadly I lost a few good friends...

I had certainly NEVER seen anything like those 'Under Keel' weapons and I'm not surprised about the end results you describe. I cannot begin to imagine the carnage they would cause.. Thankfully my imagination is not that vivid

[Basil]

But during her infamous BBC exchange with the schoolteacher Diana Gould who confronted her on the sinking Mrs Thatcher made an intriguing reference to the report saying: "One day, all of the facts, in about 30 years time, will be published." Mrs Gould died earlier this month.
What a pity Mrs Gould did not survive to learn what we all knew at the time, namely that the action was thoroughly justified and indeed, it would have been militarily remiss not to have taken it.

[Navaleye]

glojo,

The South Korean vessel Cheonan was hit by a similar weapon, split in two and sunk with loss of 40 lives.

[orca]

IMHO only a complete moron would argue that Argentine forces should have been granted freedom to manoeuvre in any location at all, let alone in the South Atlantic. Again, only my opinion but only the extremely naive would argue that hostile forces, engaged in, or supporting, the occupation of British sovereign territory should not be engaged due to their location relative to a circle of arbitrary size based on a fairly arbitrary lat/long.

To me it is completely incoherent that the (Argentine) fervour which greeted the Argentine invasion of the Falkland Islands was intense and nationwide and yet a proportion of people think that valid military targets existed solely within the TEZ.

What, for example, would we think now of a successful SF raid on the Super-E or C-130 base?

[glojo]

The South Korean vessel Cheonan was hit by a similar weapon, split in two and sunk with loss of 40 lives. I think it fair to say that my 48 was front to back or should that be back to front. An awfully big bang and I can well understand how that South Korean vessel was blown in half!!

May their souls rest in peace.

This hot air about the sinking of this cruiser is just that and sadly she was a victim, instead of a victor.. Apologies for the wording

For the information of Orca
After that message of 23 April, the entire South Atlantic was an operational theatre for both sides. We, as professionals, said it was just too bad that we lost the Belgrano. This was not posted here

[orca]

Glojo,

My comments were aimed at the ill informed, not the Argentine military who, from extensive reading but no personal experience, would appear to have acted from beginning to end with professionalism, courage and honour.

[ORAC]

I think it fair to say that my 48 was front to back or should that be back to front. An awfully big bang and I can well understand how that South Korean vessel was blown in half!!

The weapon is designed so the explosion creates a steam void in the water below the keel of the ship (http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/navy/docs/es310/uw_wpns/uw_wpns.htm) whilst breaking it's back. The weight of the ship is left supported by the bow and stern which are now not strong enough to support the weight and the ship breaks into 2 halves as it collapses into the void, as can be seen in the video.