Good signs or positive thinking?

[xzhibby]

Good signs or positive thinking?

Firstly, I’d like to say Hello to all on PPRuNe. This is my first post.

Watching the news this morning I saw a report that Heathrow experienced it’s record highest month in July of this year, servicing a total 6.7 million passengers. However, the vast majority of other UK airports actually saw a fall on 2009. That said, across the pond Delta also saw an increase and some of their busiest times in 2010.

I wanted to get the thoughts of the posters on this forum. How do you feel about the industry at present? Do we feel this might be the start of better times? Are these premature thoughts / positive thinking? Might this be a good timing for people to start pursuing training?

Any thoughts welcomed.

Links to some of the news stories:
BBC News - London's Heathrow Airport records busiest-ever month (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-10924771)
Delta Air Lines September traffic up 6.5 pct - BusinessWeek (http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9ILPTR00.htm)
Colgan Air Sept. Traffic Up 8.5% - Quick Facts (http://www.rttnews.com/Content/QuickFacts.aspx?Id=1441086&SM=1)

[DreamAirlines]

Im always trying to be a positive guy, so I think the industry is moving into better times compared to the last couple of years. That also includes aviation.

Nevertheless, don't forget aviation is always moving. I would not say it is ever stable, it's always rising or falling.

My sources? Definitely not a 100% reliable one. I'm just hearing people talk and hear rumors everywhere :8

And welcome btw Im a new guy here to

[Uncle Wiggily]

Yes, get out there now and sign up for flying package, preferably one that includes 500 hours on a 737 or A320 with one of Europe's low-cost carriers.

The good news is that there will be much more of an opportunity to get in the cockpit of a cool jet because pilot jobs are becoming more and more contracted out! Isn't this great! It's fantastic to know that even if there was a pilot working many years at an airline to get a higher seniority number, that you can say, "hey buddy - tough luck...back of the bus for you sucka!" Besides he just complains about trivial matters such as pay and roster. Get in there, show managememt that your passion is flying and you will do anything to do it and you will find a job!

Best of luck!

[INNflight]

Sorry to burst your bubble, but you're guessing - and we all are.

Quite a few airlines started hiring now / will start shortly, so the people about to finish training are off well.

There's really NO SIGN that would suggest you to start, as during the year and a half it will take you min. to get your license, the industry can go both ways. You just can't tell. Anyone who tells you he can is lying right to your face.

Also, forget the talk about aviation being in a cycle. You can't plan with that, saying in 2013 it'll all be good again. You can't even plan for a few months. Eventually you'll either have to jump and start training, see where you get out, or not do it.

There's more secure ways to get a job, that's certain.

[xzhibby]

I agree, there will always be an amount of turbulence in the industry however I’m also a little excited to hear the trickles of good news, if nothing else it gives us some new hope.

Personally, I’m extremely tired of the secure job which to be quite honest is never going to give me the life satisfaction of at very least, chasing the dream. That said, although hopeful that I’ll someday land a position with an airline or cargo operator, I just want to fly and once I have the PPL I’d like to get a vintage Cessna 170 or an affordable tourer and just fly. Anything further is a bonus!

[Genghis the Engineer]

I agree, there will always be an amount of turbulence in the industry however I’m also a little excited to hear the trickles of good news, if nothing else it gives us some new hope.

Personally, I’m extremely tired of the secure job which to be quite honest is never going to give me the life satisfaction of at very least, chasing the dream. That said, although hopeful that I’ll someday land a position with an airline or cargo operator, I just want to fly and once I have the PPL I’d like to get a vintage Cessna 170 or an affordable tourer and just fly. Anything further is a bonus!


If you already have a job and want want to fly a nice tourer, possibly a vintage aeroplane, and are based in Southampton - I'd strongly recommend going and looking at Popham. Just drive up to the clubhouse on a Saturday, buy a mug of tea, look at the noticeboard and stroll along the flightline. It'll give you most of the encouragement you need.

Also chat to Irv, who posts here and acts as an instructor at Popham - he'll tell you all about giving up a secure white collar job to chase the dream of working full time in aviation. He seems pretty happy in it.

G

[Intrepidaviator]

There's definately positive recruitment signs on the horizon but what the deal will be for the pilots to be part of that recruitment, who knows.

You've got to be in it to win it but also be prepared that you don't win them all.

[lander66]

Everyone is saying that the aviation industry is a fluctuating one, which is true. However the time spent rising or falling isn't always the same in each cycle. That makes it unpredictable. The only thing you can know is what is happening at the present. If it is looking slightly better today, it won't necessarily look that good tomorrow, or perhaps it will look even better...Predicting is futile unless there is a major global recession on the cards in which case use your common sense....hopefully we have seen the last of this recession though.

[blackybirdy]

impossible to predict the futur.
however, what you can know for sure, the cost of training is higher every second passed.The entire training system will collapse one day. there wont be any school anymore. they will struggle to pay tax before training students.
it´' s already there. it's coming.

[potkettleblack]

From what I can see little has changed in the last few years for wannabes. Sure BA and potentially Virgin are hiring which is a distinct change in the market. BUT its for experienced people with time on type. I would suspect that the people that get into these airlines will have well above the minimum time on type. Probably something in the order of thousands of jet hours.

The situation for low houred 250hr frozen ATPL bods still looks the same as far as I can see. You either throw 30k at O'Leary or pass a multitude of tests to get into CTC and start treading water. Flybe have various mentored schemes depending on which school you go to but that obviously requires you to be starting your training now and not be sitting at home with a blue book. There will probably be a few lucky integrated bods in the right place at the right time to fill gaps in various operators as people move airlines but again these will be limited and I wouldn't be betting 100k on it.

The mad days back in 2006/7 when just about every operator was falling over themselves hiring are long gone.

[lander66]

however, what you can know for sure, the cost of training is higher every second passed.The entire training system will collapse one day. there wont be any school anymore. they will struggle to pay tax before training students.

Yes the cost of training will increase. But no the system won't collapse!!! How will pilots be produced if there is no training system? It may not be pretty but there will always be a way of becoming a pilot, hopefully one day a better one. I am sure that day will come eventually.

[Madder]

What are these good signs then? Because currently I have a really hard time seeing them. Where I am situated I speak to dusins of graduates each month who havent seen sniff of a flying job or interview since finishing training, I also know several guys with 5-700 hours jet time, ex. 737 who are jobless and have been for years now. What exactly should change that lack of demand within the next years?