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View Full Version : MET Office - have they got a clue?


rans6andrew
29th Aug 2010, 10:40
I was intending doing some paint spraying today. My current paint shop is a cheap gazebo which has proved to be light, airy and spacious. Unfortunately it doesn't stand up to strong winds. At 0630 hrs I checked the TAFs for the wind today and was dismayed to see gusting 27kts and worse for all over the south UK, building up from about 0900 hrs. I went back to bed.

At just after 1000 hrs I looked at the TAFs again. NO gust warnings for the south UK closer than Cornwall (I am in Berks). It suggests that it is going to be 12 to 14 kts widespread.

Do they have any idea what the weather is going to do?

At present it is sort of borderline windy, do I? Don't I?

Rans6...

green granite
29th Aug 2010, 10:57
Do they have any idea what the weather is going to do?

No .......................

parabellum
29th Aug 2010, 11:05
And if a lady 'phones in and says she thinks there will be a hurricane over the South of England, just ignore her!

Storminnorm
29th Aug 2010, 11:08
Something Fishy about that.

Lon More
29th Aug 2010, 11:09
You're taking the Michael

pulse1
29th Aug 2010, 12:20
Are TAFs written by local met officers? Where do they get their data?

On the first day of the Bournemouth Air Show I looked at the EGHH TAF and it gave NSW and high cloud base until about 15:00, then rain.

At the same time, the Met Office Rainfall Radar showed a line of heavy showers moving East along the south coast. By 10:30 we had very heavy rain and poor vis. and low cloud base. The EGHH METAR described it perfectly.

The afternoon was excellent, the only day the Show gave a full programme.

In other words, the TAF was completely useless for planning one's day based on weather.

airborne_artist
29th Aug 2010, 14:45
At 0630 hrs I checked the TAFs for the wind today and was dismayed to see gusting 27kts and worse for all over the south UK, building up from about 0900 hrs. I went back to bed.Very squally here in S Oxon right now with gusts easily >25kts, and heavy bursts of rain on a belt of Cbs that extend W from Suffolk for a good 150 miles.

Wrong time, perhaps, but right day :D

http://i288.photobucket.com/albums/ll180/airborne_artist/pprune.jpg

spekesoftly
29th Aug 2010, 15:18
Further more, I was just about to mow the lawn, and it has just rained heavily.

I find you can only use that excuse so many times! ;)

Ancient Observer
29th Aug 2010, 15:38
You could get your lawn cut yesterday.

Knowing the day after that you could have done something the day before is just so comforting, isn't it?

larssnowpharter
29th Aug 2010, 15:53
And..... they NEVER, NEVER aplogize when they -up the forecast - which they do on a daily basis.

Actually they don't.

That's because 80% of yer average so called bleedin weather forecast is about weather that has already happened. It's all a con. They can then say we were accurate at least 80% of the time.

1DC
29th Aug 2010, 17:34
Blowing a hooligan up here..

I always thought weather forecasting in the UK was the best job ever. If you get it wrong it was what everyone expected, if you get it right then you just get the pi$$ taken because nobody expected it, no responsibility needed.........

1DC
29th Aug 2010, 21:33
F & B
As most wx presenters are women nowadays just tell the Missus that one of her lot made it up.

FCUK12
29th Aug 2010, 22:02
At just after 1000 hrs I looked at the TAFs again. NO gust warnings for the south UK closer than Cornwall (I am in Berks). It suggests that it is going to be 12 to 14 kts widespread.


Which TAFs did you look at ?

niknak
29th Aug 2010, 22:14
My regional BBC news programme get their weather forecasts and presentations from a private company.
They set up independantly when the Met Office decided to base themselves in Zider Cuntry, and they are, almost without exception entirely accurate.
The Managing Director of the enterprise, who is also an occassional presenter, lives just down the road from me and, although I've been here for 13 years, I've never seen him in the village.

Forewarned is fore armed perhaps?

RJM
29th Aug 2010, 22:24
We have hills and a gulf around here, giving rise to weird microclimatic effects. The forecast can be for light winds and no cloud while pockets within the forecast area are overcast with 'gully winds' that will blow a dog off a chain.

Standard Noise
30th Aug 2010, 08:54
Are TAFs written by local met officers? Where do they get their data?.........The EGHH METAR described it perfectly..................the TAF was completely useless for planning one's day based on weather.

TAFs are written at the Met Office, based on the METARS sent in by the airfield Met Observers (like me).
Ergo, we observers observe, therefore decreasing the chances of getting it wrong as we're only looking out the window, and the forecasters at the Met Office, forecast, or as it's known, guess.
If the 'EGHH METAR described it perfectly' then we can only be thankful that they compiled the METAR whilst looking out the square window things.

Personally, I use Metcheck if I want summat more accurate.

B Fraser
30th Aug 2010, 09:13
1DC - Blowing a hooligan up here..

I always thought weather forecasting in the UK was the best job ever.


I'm sure the jobholder in residence is lurking somewhere nearby.

Getting back to the topic. Things have obviously changed since my day, thank god all I had to do was draw isobars and make up the French bit of the map when they were on strike.

Radar66
30th Aug 2010, 09:53
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http://i205.photobucket.com/albums/bb122/Radar66/emoticons/doorpeek.gif

B Fraser
30th Aug 2010, 16:59
Yep, the weather brick has a lot going for it however I liked my bit of string. It was the MkIII version tied to a bit of four by two outside the forecasting office in Bracknell.

If it's hanging, it's calm
If it's horizontal, it's windy
If it's hot, it's sunny
If it's cold, it's chilly
If it's frosty, clear skies at night
If it's wet, it's raining
If you can't see it, it's foggy
If it's covered in snow... you know the rest.
If it isn't there, it's a hurricane.

Things haven't been the same since they did away with proper blokes in tweed jackets with elbow patches who would show you an Atlantic chart with numbers on it. If the board looked like a zebra's arsehole then it was time to nail down the cat. I reckon this sort of thing still goes on in Drapersworld and a bloody good thing too. They probably have a shipping forecast on the hour, just after a Fred Dibnah episode where he fixes a triple expansion engine from a liner using a tobacco tin and a piece of twine.

Kids today eh ? That Ulrikakakakakaka woman has a lot to answer for.

Ancient Observer
30th Aug 2010, 18:19
The CEO of the Met often reads pprune, (he's a ppl).

However, he does have a rather good sense of humour. Rants about the Met do need some superior and quality humour, not just old fashioned rants - in that job, he's heard them all.....

llondel
30th Aug 2010, 19:48
In defence of the Met Office, they did get it right here yesterday. Forecast for sun, then clouds, then rain about 1pm, then back to sun and clouds by 4pm. Much to my amazement, that's what happened.

However, I didn't notice the rain they predicted for today, so things are back to normal.

ShyTorque
31st Aug 2010, 09:03
The Met Office improved their service earlier this year when they finally admitted that their long-range forecasts were often incorrect.

To prevent further confusion, they stopped doing long-range forecasts.

:ugh:

My old man always used to say that "It'll either rain or get dark before midnight!"

In these latitudes, I never knew him to be wrong.