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dragon man
4th Aug 2010, 21:26
This is due on the 12th of August and i cant help but wonder in light of the excellent financial result from Cathay with new orders announced if QF will be in a similar vein. Rumours abound of one 747 to come back from Victorville and the possibility of 25 787 to be delivered to Qantas starting in 2012 from a cancelled order from a US carrier. Would be wonderful if it was correct. Anyone have any news?:ok:

Bypass ratio
4th Aug 2010, 23:26
I think Qantas will post a loss and won't be ordering any new aircraft. Jetstar on the other hand, will order some new aircraft and if anything, may put QF back in the black.

Keg
4th Aug 2010, 23:43
Perhaps this year, supposedly not the next.

...and I've absolute confidence that the most profitable business domestically, the way this is returning, within the next year to 18 months, will be Qantas mainline," Joyce said.

What The
5th Aug 2010, 01:33
Profit closer to $400m than $300m
Subsidiary businesses (Frequent Flyer etc.) most profitable segment
QF Mainline Domestic most profitable core business segment
QF International a basket case
JQ Domestic profitable
JQ International a basket case
JQ Asia break even \ basket case
The costs that were to finally be apportioned to the real entity occuring them will not happen, despite plans to do so in order to show the real cost basis of each business.

rammel
5th Aug 2010, 22:25
I agree with What The. From what I see on a day to day basis I think it will be closer to the $400m mark.

QF Domestic seems to be going gang busters at the moment. I haven't seen too many flights with a lot of seats available. Has anyone tried staff travel to BNE ex MEL lately?

QF Int from what I've seen seems to be going ok, though not great. I only see a few ports, so can't comment on the overall operation. But I do think International has picked up a little since the 1/2 yearly results.

rmcdonal
6th Aug 2010, 03:38
I want to see a profit breakdown for QLink, I bet it never dipped in the red the whole GFC.

Ken Borough
11th Aug 2010, 04:32
Will be very interesting to see to what extent profit is enhanced on account of forex gains!

Wod
12th Aug 2010, 00:04
Media release and other data here

About Qantas - Investors (http://www.qantas.com.au/travel/airlines/investors/global/en)

Some bits and pieces


KEY POINTS
- Underlying Profit Before Tax of $377 million
- Revenue of $13.8 billion
- Operating cashflow of $1.3 billion
- Cash balance of $3.7 billion
- Unit costs down 4.3% across the Qantas Group, excluding fuel




Significant Unit Cost Reductions
Operating expenses (excluding non-recurring items) were $968 million lower compared to the prior year, with substantial savings in fuel and manpower. Also included were QFuture savings of $533 million achieved during the year. This translated to a 4.3 per cent reduction in net underlying unit costs from 5.80 c/ASK in 2009 to 5.55 in the current year.
Fuel costs benefited from lower average prices, with into plane fuel price being 13 per cent lower than 2009
.



During the year, the Group entered 23 new aircraft into service:
- Qantas and QantasLink – 3 A380s, 1 A330-200, 3 B737-800s, 7 Bombardier Q400s
- Jetstar, including Jetstar Asia – 1 A330-200, 6 A320-200s, 2 A321-200s
The Group retired 9 aircraft – 3 B747-400s, 3 B767-300ERs and 3 B737-300s.




Qantas Freight’s Underlying EBIT of $42 million was $35 million above the comparative year. The significant improvement reflects recovery in the air freight market since November 2009.
The freighter network has shown strong recovery of volumes and yields on the key China-US routes. This is due to restocking of retail inventories and the global launch of new electronic devices. This was the most profitable year for Qantas freighters.
The belly space freight market has been slower to recover. Volumes are improving but, due to intense competition, yields remain lower than the prior year.




Dividend
The Board remains focused on balancing funding requirements of the business and investing for future growth with providing dividends for shareholders.
In this context, coupled with significant capital expenditure program associated with fleet renewal, the Board considers it prudent not to pay a final dividend. Future dividends will be assessed against ongoing earnings performance and capital requirements.


and finally


If present conditions continue, first half Underlying PBT for FY11 may be materially stronger than first half FY10.



I'll leave the Jetstar v. QF stuff to those who like to get excited about it.:E

denabol
12th Aug 2010, 04:19
For Pete's sake, not even the media is this dumb. The ABC just called it for the disaster it was, a profit of just over $178 million before tax, and none of this total bullshit underlying profit nonsense.

The whole flamin' outfit barely made as much money as Virgin Blue did from domestic a year ago, and I've looked at the ASX posting and most of the money came from flogging points for food at Woolies.

1a sound asleep
12th Aug 2010, 05:07
We have come out of the GFC and the Euro volcano drama, agreed. BUT low fuel prices, low interest rates, favourable exchange this is a PISS POUR result.

Some heads at QF need to roll. Time for a big clean up. Wake up to the fact that EK, SQ and the like have lower operating costs. Sack all the time wasters and extravagent expenses other wise Qantas will become another Japan Airlines.

Without JQ and the huge profit from comp payments for late delivery of new a/c and the FF program (ie selling points for dog food, nappies and bananas) QF would have a huge loss.

Lots of errors from the past - hanging onto the 743/744 fleet until they WERE scrap metal, failing to get the 777, waste on corporate indulgences, reliance on LHR and LAX for profits, excessive useless middle management that still need to go, etc

Wake up QF this is 2010 not 1990. Its a different world. The likes of EK, AirAsiaX and Tiger are biting the kangaroo's tail. Total Disaster Qantas

DEFCON4
12th Aug 2010, 05:33
When you offer an inferior product compared to your competitors this is the result you deserve
Aging aircraft
Totally FarQd IFE
Top heavy with management
Incentive bonuses for screwing up.
A disengaged workforce who are embarrassed by the product.
Poor aircraft choice
High yield passengers are returning but not to Qantas
......the list is endless.
Cost cutting has always one of the least sophisticated ways of managing a business.At Qantas its an art form because there is no one in the joint who is smart to do anything else

skybed
12th Aug 2010, 06:34
union head puts it into the right context. the question remains what are they going to do about it????:confused:

VC9
12th Aug 2010, 07:42
Firstly, I do not work for Qantas. However I am saddened and annoyed by the attitude that some staff appear to have toward the company.

Last week, I met two Flight Attendant friends of my partner, one domestic mainline and one long haul, whilst having a post dinner drink in a Sydney bar. Admittedly they were both pretty drunk, but the conversation turned to having a big weekend of partying. However to do that, they would both have to go "sick". That was no issue in their eyes as they "hated the job".

If it is so bad, then get OUT and stop poisioning the work place.

Stop blaming others and start taking some ownership/responsibility for your work environment.

standard unit
12th Aug 2010, 07:50
VC9,

Longhaul cabin crew have very recently been informed that passenger satisfaction levels in the international division are higher than at any other time in the companies history.

I can think of no reason why cabin crew management would tell it's staff that other than it's the truth.

Despite what you seem to want to imply, the staff are not the problem.

Oh BTW.

Your posting history suggests a preoccupation [obsession ?] when it comes to anti flight attendant matters.

Help is out there.......

mcgrath50
12th Aug 2010, 07:54
VC9, there are always bad apples, and people have been doing that since school through uni, part time work and into their full time careers. So hopefully these are just bad apples and not a standard across QF

air bender
12th Aug 2010, 08:24
Management run the company and are therefore responsible for its profit or loss.
There are those that seek to blame employees when profits are not what expected and equally are prepared to applaud management when profit exceeds expectations.
Two pissed CC contribute nothing to either scenario.They are indeed a minority.There are abpout 3% of individuals employed as CC who should be sharpening pencils for a living.The other 97% get on with doing what they are employed to do.
The same can be said for every other department in an airline.
Want to go after someone ?
Find out where Dixon lives and give him an earful.
If another business posted a profit like that on a revenue of $13 billion one would have to seriously consider its viablity and its management's business acumen

WorthWhat
12th Aug 2010, 08:48
If another business posted a profit like that on a revenue of $13 billion one would have to seriously consider its viablity and its management's business acumen. The popular press agrees
The headlines from Dow Jones don’t sound too bad, “Qantas Airways FY Net Profit -4.3% at A$112M” and “1H FY11 Pre-tax Profit May Be Materially Stronger On Year”.
But just as a newly polished car may look good on the outside, it’s only when you look under the bonnet that you can see what’s really going on. In the case of Qantas, forget the net profit amount and the forecast for the first half of the 2011 financial year, that’s just the lovely polished finish. If you want to look at the engine you need to look at the company’s cash flow.

And that’s where you can see the engine has almost seized up. You see, while Qantas reports a $112 million profit, if it wasn’t for proceeds from borrowings of $1.352 billion, Qantas would have had negative cash flow for the year to the tune of $1.265 billion.

In other words, just like the Aussie battler who needs to go to a payday lender in order to cover the cost of a gas or electricity bill, Qantas has had to go to its payday lender and draw down from a debt facility in order to pay its bills.
This is despite supposedly having $3.7 billion of cash in the bank.

But you can see why Qantas went down the road of increasing its borrowings rather than drawing down on cash. Minus the borrowings, Qantas’ cash holdings would have decreased by around a third. Doubtless the analysts wouldn’t have liked that as it would have played havoc with a bunch of cash based ratios.
Much better to go further into debt instead. Just like the rest of the population. Debt is all the rage after all - $1 trillion of household debt can’t be wrong!

The rotten state of the company’s cash flow is evident elsewhere too, such as the decision not to pay a dividend for the third half-year in a row.

Which is hardly surprising considering on a per-share basis Qantas earned just 4.9 cents per share, or earnings of 1.9% of the share price.

When a company’s earnings are that low, and it needs to borrow money in order to be cash flow positive it’s not hard to figure out that the company is in terrible shape.

WoodenEye
12th Aug 2010, 11:51
Noted Worth What

However, according to one respected Investment Bank

· "Qantas reported FY10 underlying PBT of $377m. Operationally the result was in line with expectations with higher than expected lease costs seeing a slightly lower number at the PBT line.
· No dividend was declared for FY10, however this was not a huge surprise and reflects a conservative approach from the board ahead of a period of significant capex spend. Given an expected rebound in earnings next year, we are forecasting dividend payments to resume,
· Qantas guided for 1H11 PBT to be ‘materially’ higher than 1H10 underlying PBT of $267m. We are forecasting a 45% increase in PBT in 1H11 to $387m supported by yield growth and capacity additions. We expect the market to view positively some bullish comments from management around the potential for a strong recovery in yields over the medium-term towards FY08 levels.
· Qantas reaffirmed plans to invest significantly in its fleet over coming years outlining plans for $2.6bn in capex next year and $2.7bn in FY12, in line with our expectations. Qantas maintains the flexibility to manage its fleet size should capacity growth requirements fall away.
· The result gave further indications that yields are recovering, albeit gradually, and follows positive incremental data from the August airfare index released yesterday by BITRE.
· We have downgraded slightly our Jetstar yield growth expectations given continuing domestic competition and discounting. However, this was offset by an increase to our yield expectations for Mainline, which is benefiting from a pick up in business and corporate travel and the re-emergence of a premium yield for its domestic business relative to competitors.
· We retain our Overweight recommendation for Qantas and $3.00 Price Target. Our thesis for Qantas remains unchanged. We continue to see good valuation support for the stock based on historical trading multiples while we expect a gradual yield recovery in FY11 to support a strong rebound in earnings."


Think United!

engine out
12th Aug 2010, 21:34
Airlines do not make big money! It is simple, aircraft and airlines are expensive to run. They are not a good investment if you want a big return on capital. And while there are so many companies offering heavily discounted tickets non will make much profit. Yes Qantas needs to regroup but they will never see the profits they had several years ago as the playing field has changed. I presume though that with no share divedend executive bonuses will be curtailed as well.

SilverSleuth
12th Aug 2010, 22:03
This should be big alarm bells ringing for Q. Not a good result at all which such big money turning over. Now with numerous other low cost models around and another full service business product coming next year, they really need to start there middle management cutting.
Time to start focusing on the quality of the product again.
However with the irishman on the news last night saying this was a good result I think it may not have sunk in.

Nutrageous
12th Aug 2010, 22:28
The returns are pretty poor for sure...the profit on turnover would be about 2%. Still, are there any other airlines out there making lots of money at the moment? The whole industry always seems to tiptoe down the sideline of bankruptcy.

I'm just glad I sold my QF management bonus shares at just on $6.00 before I got out. :)

-438
12th Aug 2010, 22:57
It may not be a good return on capital. Welcome to the airline industry.
I think it is quite a good result when you compare it to airlines all over the world.
The next 2 to 3 years will be of most interest as the world especially Asian demand picks up. A big indication of the future of Qantas Group will be where the 787's are deployed.
I believe the logical choice is to paint them white and red and run them domestically replacing 767s as this is where the current yeild premium is. Along with the prospect of Virgin entering this premium market. Capital needs to be invested where it has been neglected for a number of years.
The A380s are extremely popular with passengers, they will keep arriving to replace older 744's. The dozen new 738s and first 15 new 787s will all have individual in seat entertainment and finally the employees will once again be proud to welcome people back on board. Customer satisfaction and on time perfomance will be sky high which in turn should flow on to international load factors.

dizzylizzy
13th Aug 2010, 01:30
The new 738's arriving, will they be destined for the VH fleet? Any ideas on delivery dates yet?

ditzyboy
13th Aug 2010, 01:38
I had read somewhere that Jetconnect was to get two batches of three (three more to go), then Australia would get existing Jetconnect aircraft as Jetconnect got new aircraft.

The aircraft that have been delivered so far were delivered to Qantas (Aust), with Australian registrations, prior to heading to Jetconnect and getting registered in NZ.

packrat
13th Aug 2010, 04:00
The problem with relying on cost cutting to keep you in the black is that you can only do it for so long before it totally undermines the service your business provides and the reputation it trades on.
Qantas has been cost cutting for 10 years..8 years too long

breakfastburrito
13th Aug 2010, 08:22
Joyce isn't yielding all the answers
Comment Tansy Harcourt

It was what Alan Joyce wouldn't say, rather than what did say,
that speaks volumes.

While Qantas Airways is busily preparing for a major growth
offensive through Jetstar, that very same low-cost unit has
flown into turbulence.

Although capacity at Jetstar grew in the second half compared
with a year earlier, underlying earnings before interest and
tax (EBIT) during that time fell 84 per cent to $10 million.

Joyce, usually a free-wheeling seller of the joys of Jetstar,
would not say by how much the yield had declined to get to
such a point. And to be fair, Jetstar is not alone in feeling the pain.
Virgin Blue is likely to have fared worse. The two are
struggling with the tough competition from Tiger Airways
and a drop-off in consumer spending.

The big difference is that the Qantas group may not have
needed to become quite so embroiled in the flight to the bottom
of the aviation market. There are serious question marks
over whether the group has gone too far with its Jetstar
expansion and has unnecessarily sacrificed its high-yielding
Qantas business for the gain of its low-yielding Jetstar business.

When Jetstar was started in 2004 the plan was fro the business
to be an attack dog, sent into Qantas's underperforming leisure
routes with a low-enough cost base to beat its rival Virgin on price.

Now, under Joyce's new plan to grow Jetstar 23 per cent in
the domestic market this year, the airline will have as many
available seat kilometers as Qantas.

It's all well and good for Joyce to be talking up Jetstars full-year
underlying EBIT of $131 million. What is not clear is whether
group profit would have been significantly higher if much of
that business had remained a Qantas Airways route.

After all, it is understood that the bulk if not all of Jetstar's
profitable routes are ones it inherited from Qantas, rather
than routes it started off its own bat.

For every percentage increase in capacity at Jetstar, what
does that do for the corresponding decrease in yield?

On thing's for sure, Joyce is certainly not saying.
AFR, Friday August 13, Page 41

Sunstar320
13th Aug 2010, 08:26
Mabye Jetstar should stop spending 100million a year on advertising.

MyerFlyer
14th Aug 2010, 05:18
Well on the plus side Joyce did mention the word growth several times for both QF mainline and JQ.

Hopefully some positive changes ahead.

WorthWhat
18th Aug 2010, 06:18
With no dividend payable What does every percentage increase in capacity at Jetstar do to Qantas’ yield? Is a very good question Mr B.

Hopefully some smart analyst out there will crunch the numbers and let us mere shareholders know.