Resigned

[Tunfisk]

What do I do wrong???:ugh:
I got laid of work, about a year ago, and have not been able to get back in to the flying game. Sent my application everywhere.

Several of my friends, has gone directly from flight school, with no previous experience to Ryanair amongs several. I have also applied without any response.

I have close to 2000 hours, my friends, hardly 250 hours.

I do not recongince this industry anymore.
:ugh:

[dan1165]

There is no logic in aviation :hmm: ...

[buzzc152]

Completely crazy.

Try sending out CV's stating you have only 500 hours ??

I hope something turns up for you.

Buzz

[emirates001]

I find myself in the same position, got layed off in Jan. 1500hrs total, type rated.
It does seem that if your fresh out of college with low hours you stand a better chance in gaining employment, at the very least an Interview.

[Photon85]

Are you applying for jobs in the UK only, or are you also applying to other EU countries, or for that matter other continents like Asia, Africa etc

[Uncle Wiggily]

Tunfisk:

If it is your goal to go through RyanAir's cadet program then you need to fill out the on-line application. You say you have 2000 hours and jet experience. Do not put this on your application, as it will get immediately discarded. You need to put no more than 350 hours for your total flight time. Put the basic minimums, so that RyanAir will have a financial incentive to possibly select you as a cadet. RyanAir is not interested in experience, they are interested in making a profit and that means getting pilots to accept paying for training. I actually got through to the Chief Pilot one evening and he said that I had too much experience as well. He honestly told me that he did not make the rules, but that the RyanAir business model dictated obtaining a certain amount of profit from the cadets signing up. He kept on telling me, "but I'm sure you understand." I finally told him that I don't understand how an airline that supposedly promotes safety can tell a pilot he is too experienced. The industry is a joke. But, if you truly want to pursue RYR, then put the "very low" hours and experience down and play up your "willingness" to help RYR "grow". Best of luck.

[Bealzebub]

They say Ostriches don't really bury their heads in the sand. That is probably true, but Pilots certainly do, and for their fledglings it almost seems to be a survival technique!

It is really simple. Low cost means stripping out any unnecessary expense thats add to the minus column, and adding any potential source of realisable revenue that adds to the plus column.

Airlines like most other businesses have capital aquisition costs and finance costs. Then they have the costs of running those capital assets. Labour costs, maintenance, fuel, licensing, airport and administrative charges, advertising and so on. On an annual ongoing basis, three of the biggest variable costs are Fuel, Labour and Maintenance.

Fuel is difficult, in that the price is largely controlled by international cartels and manipulated by traders. Although it is a commodity, it is one that is subject to rapid price volatility and is difficult to budget in the medium to long term. Certainly it is not a cost that the airline can exert any real influence on.

Maintenance is somewhat less volatile, in that competitive tendering can provide the airline with some degree of control on the expense. It is however constrained by regulatory oversight, which should (in theory) prevent it trading off costs for risk in this area.

Labour is a whole different ball game. Taking pilots as one major cost centre, there are still the effects of market forces in play. In other words if there are not enough pilots of the calibre you require, queueing up at your door, then you need to attract the available supply by increasing the price you will pay them for their talent. On the other hand if there are simply too many queueing up at the door, good economic sense would suggest you reduce the price until the supply matches your demand, and falls in line with the average market price.

The problem with pilots is that they are also a regulated commodity. They are constantly trained and licensed professionals who need to have the levels of experience necessary to ensure they can operate your expensive capital assets safely and efficiently. To this end they can only trade cost for risk to a limited degree because it is a regulated industry. The drive towards lower costs raised the early question, "why do we need two expensive drivers at the front?" Why not wipe out 40% of the cost by simply unscrewing the right hand seat and tossing it in the skip? (Dumpster.) After all, the manufacturers have sold these high tech assets with expensive new technologies that they announced with great fanfare would make flying simpler, safer and more efficient. The flight engineer was replaced with microchips, chunky buttons and pretty TV displays. The pilots were happy to bore all and sundry with tales of "look Ma' no hands!" as they extolled the virtues of map displays, magenta lines and a myriad of computer displays that had supposedly somehow migrated from NASA space shuttle programmes. Everything is safer, easier and happier. So why do you need two of them, where is the much lauded cost saving?

The manufacturers and regulators both turned pale at the thought of the seat being ripped out, as that wasn't really the intended purpose in the design and evolution process, so they said no! The airlines then looked again at this cost, and said then, "what requirements do we need for the occupants of these seats?" The manufacturer in essence said, two licensed pilots who had the ability to read the instruction leaflet (manuals,) thereby assuming most of the subsequent (post sales) operational risk liability.
The regulator agreed, with the long standing proviso that however they achieved this, there shouldn't be two "inexperienced" pilots operating adjacent seats at the same time, beyond that provided they had the absolute basic paperwork, they couldn't really care less!

So the pioneers and disciples of low cost, rubbed their hands with glee. The job "Airline pilot" had an almost global Kudos and glamour that would have aspirational youngsters (and not so youngsters) queueing up around the block. This would instantly change the market price by massively expanding supply, far in excess of any likely demand, and "voila" instant cost saving. The regulator was off their back so long as they had experience in the left seat, as far as the target was concerned, 25% progress.

However the success of this policy change was even better than they could have imagined. So long were the queues of people lining up to take advantage of this new reduction in experience requirements, that the price droppped so much, that it actually reversed from a cost (loss) into a revenue (profit)! People somehow chose to shut their eyes to the new reality, and seemed to believe that once strapped into the right hand seat , the airlines would have a complete change of heart and say "no, no we really want to pay you the old wages and benefits of the experienced pilots we used to entice into these roles." So convinced were many, that they paid six figure sums to buy their way in to these positions, seemingly oblivious to the fact that even if they were succesful, it would take an inordinate amount of time to recover the investment. A whole industry of training establishments and new methodology sprang up on the back of this created demand.

Of course the problem with this new industry and its new practices is the same as with anything new. That is it gets old eventually (often quite quickly,) and in turn gets more demanding and expensive. Now that clearly makes it unwelcome and defeats the object of the exercise. This only works if you target the keen, inexperienced and ambitious with deep pockets. To keep the cost advantage, the airlines must keep this market churning over with the same demographic. Experienced First officers will only have higher cost expectations, be less satisfied, and provide no revenue opportunities in pursuit of their ambition, sorry no vacancies!

So what of the left seat? Well funny you should mention that, because that is what they are looking at now. So far they have been shielded from demand by the general economic oversupply. In addition legislative changes added anything up to 10 years to the normal retirement age. Pension changes caused many experienced Captains / Pilots to take a longer term view of their careers than had historically been the case. This has all served to provide a breathing space for the airlines to re-group their efforts into how they address the cost base of this particular seat.

If you look at what is taking shape in this industry, you can see a pent up supply of better experienced pilots desperate to continue or return to a job in which they have a significant and often critical investment. There are type ratings to be sold, conversion courses to be sold, even line training to be sold. The rewards have already been largely reduced (lower salary levels, reduced expenses, intensive rostering, decimated pension arrangements). Yet despite this, the supply is overwhelming.

So there you have it. It didn't start last week, it has been happening progressively and relentlessly for the last 15 years. Certainly in the last 10 years it has accelerated as economic and global events fuelled its progress. It has become the "X-Factor" with talented, average, and untalented people queueing up for a shot at something they don't fully understand, but nevertheless believe they want. The queue isn't getting any shorter. Pay your money and take your choice.

[v6g]

Are you sure you're a pilot? You seem way too intelligent to be a typical jet driver.

[alphaadrian]

Beazlebub

An intelligent and well-written piece. I applaud you:D

And unfortunetly deadly accurate too:(

But most frightening and as you rightly say..people are still queing up for a shot!

Fool/money/easily parted springs to mind!

Alpha:ok:

[ba038]

Beazlebub

Your knowledge of this industry is very precise.May i ask what your previous career was?.

[Uncle Wiggily]

Bealzebub:

Probably one of the best PPRuNe posts ever. You are a skilled writer. :D

[frank booth]

Wonder how long it will be before ryr start charging for all non revenue generating activities? Any offers on £150 per day for LPC/OPC
£100 for CRM/ security/ fire and smoke
Probably start off with the ever eager cadets, anything to keep wearing the stripes eh?
And where the pikey jet goes, easy debt is sure to follow.

[Tunfisk]

Bealzebub: I have nothing more to add. Well written.

I just might be cynical to change my experience level to a lower level..

What have this industry come to.....:ugh:

[Pilot Chris]

You've hit the nail on the head talking about FOs expecting things to go back the way they were. Everyone round my way talks about how once they've got some experience the jobs will fall into their laps, salaries and terms will improve once more. And I can see how this would be so if supply was drying up, but it clearly isn't with CTC courses launching with record numbers of cadets after the minor blip of the recession.

The only possible eventual backlash that I see is that although the locos have made the right hand seat so very obtainable, they are eroding the reasons anyone would want to obtain it. Newcomers still sign up as they see it as a launch pad to better things, but eventually when there are no better things to go to, supply could possibly end for good.

[northern boy]

I'm afraid that those with 300 purchased hours are in for a huge shock if they think they will walk into BA or Virgin or Emirates or any number of contract jobs around the world. It will not happen. You just wasted 130K, hope you enjoyed your 6 months as a pilot.

The low cost model has only a limited life span before rising oil prices and a raft of proposed taxes and environmental laws, all designed to keep the riff raff out of the sky make the business model obsolete. The ones left flying will be the rich, governments and the military. There will still be jobs around but have a trawl through the experience requirements for the far East or Middle eastern positions. At least 1000 hours and more usually 4000+ with significant heavy jet time. No mention of 300 hour cadets. Sorry chaps.

A few, very few will still get on, just like they always have. The rest of you had better start considering other ways to service those massive debts.

Flame away, stick your mortgaged fingers in your ears and shout "NA NA NA", truth always hurts. Your time is coming to a deserved end. I'm sure the training providers will be eternally grateful to you for making them all rich. They will have nothing but sympathy for your plight as they enjoy the good life, financed by promises sold to mugs.

[lander66]

The low cost model has only a limited life span before rising oil prices and a raft of proposed taxes and environmental laws, all designed to keep the riff raff out of the sky make the business model obsolete.

Probably true but not going to happen in the next few years so I don't think it is a problem for people who are just finishing training now. There's still time to go to a low-cost airline and get some hours and then if what you say happens they will stand a better chance of gaining of gaining employment with a large carrier. Also, who knows what will happen in that time, perhaps the system will become fairer and people will get more equal opportunities, or perhaps not.

[Poose]

"The low cost model has only a limited life span before rising oil prices and a raft of proposed taxes and environmental laws, all designed to keep the riff raff out of the sky make the business model obsolete."

I'm glad that somone else has also acknowledged that fact. I've been saying it for ages! :ok:


This is why we have Low-cost Carriers...

In the past ten years in the UK and indeed some other parts of the world there have been people, who ordinarily would not be considered 'well-off', in possession of inordinate amounts of expendable cash. Primarily due to the remortgage of over priced properties and inexhaustible amounts of credit. The credit experiment had never really been done before; in that oiks and the financially irresponsible were given 'free munney'. :suspect:

I recall growing up, where flying was the preserve of the 'well-off'. The 'rich kids' in school would have one, possibly two foreign holidays a year. The late nineties arrived and the 'cheeky' weekend away on the Low-cost carrier appeared as an inherent part of British culture. These low cost airlines are just a feature of the masses having extra expendable cash.

However... The buck stopped! The vast amounts of cash from sold/remortgaged properties has now been spent... but in order to "keep-up-with-the-Jones's" it continued on until well into the late two-thousands... On credit cards... Until finally every one of those was spent up, too. The Economy ground to a halt, initially referred to as the 'Credit Crunch' and a temporary financial glitch: but everyone with more than two brain cells knew it was a Recession starting. Rest is history... :8

However... the Low Cost Carriers are still doing okay... How's that, then?
It's not because the masses are still having long weekends away, but, because the 'high-end' passengers have temporarily down graded from the Legacy Carriers.

My opinion is that once business returns to the UK and the Legacy Carriers start to pick up their 'business grade' clientele, again, that there may not be a real 'niche market passenger' for the Low Cost Carriers like their was back in two-thousands.

This is when I envisage a return to 'normality' within aviation... or as normal/healthy as it can get. It's all economic...

Essentially... oiks won't be having foreign holidays like they used to. :E

P.S. The people who I've described as having more money than sense earlier, are also the ones who probably have bank-rolled 'Little Johnny' through his CTC/OAA and then SSTR. :ugh:


"A recession is where the wealth in a country shifts from those who don't know what they are doing, to those that do."

[flyhelico]

my question is why an airline should pay a pilot when he can use slaves instead???.

I thought slavery was abolished, in 2010, in fact airlines have decided to introduce the P2F (slaves must pay to work).

this is even worse than 100 years ago.

soon, they will employ children from India to clean planes in Europe for 1 euro a day.

why this is happening IN EUROPE? because our government don't give a **** if people lose their job as long these monkey can sit in their congress buildings.!!!

if I was working for the government, I would say ENOUGH! Free Market doesn't mean they can do whatever they want!!!:yuk:

contact the EASA and complain!

here the good news: flight schools are in a mess, they don't have enough students coming. Maximum loan a student can get is maybe around 20'000 euro.

schools down + no loan + retirement of many captains= pilot shortage!

[Wannabe Flyer]

"The low cost model has only a limited life span before rising oil prices and a raft of proposed taxes and environmental laws, all designed to keep the riff raff out of the sky make the business model obsolete."

Well full service airlines are also subject to the above too. I think it is not Low Cost but Lower cost than full service that is the key to the consumer.

If a trend is to be made over the past 3 years then one will notice how low cost fares move upwards in about the same manner as Full Cost, while at the same time keeping the difference static. (please exclude the penny fair marketing offers)

Therefore mankind will always have the need to travel and will continue to seek out lower costs than the prevalent costs.........

Wonders of inflation, and even more wonderful how memory of these price hikes is limited to a few days

Oh Yes the full costs can adopt the discounting model to reduce margins to up occupancy and match Lower Cost airlines but then that is suicidal!!!!!! :{

[northern boy]

You can delude yourselves as much as you want, and if I was 130K in debt with no job I would indulge in a bit of fantasy myself.

The whole shebang is in deep doo doo. Even in good times the industry operated on tiny profit margins and carriers went bust faster than my other half can spend money. We are in a structural debt crisis unlike anything in modern times. On top of that, energy prices are getting higher and will rocket at the first sign of a meaningful recovery. The banks are trashed and are still not lending even after a trillion dollar bailout. Housing is in the doldrums and in the UK alone we are looking at tax and VAT increases. There are worrying signs that the Eurozone is about to slide back into recession.

When folk are on their uppers and have to choose between food or foreign holidays then guess which gets dropped. When companies have to slash their costs, there goes the premium airline travel. The low cost bods are desperately selling scratch cards and charging moronic little mugs tens of thousands of pounds for a few weeks playing pilot but sooner or later that
will stop, they have to pay the same fuel and maintenance bills as everyone else and the cash will run out. That goes for BA as much as Ryanair and whichever North African whorehouse has jumped on the PTF bandwagon recently. Yes people will still travel but discretionary air travel is going to get a lot less. After all people traveled in the days before cheap flights, they just took longer or did less of it. I take no pleasure in saying this but that is the new reality.

I would strongly advise that those wanabees with more than a couple of brain cells to rub together get qualified in something that actually has a future. Power transmission or energy production spring to mind. Or be a doctor or an undertaker. No slackening of demand there.

The PTF mugs are beyond redemption. I would be reluctant to employ anyone displaying such a profound lack of common sense or with such a shaky grasp of reality.

[lander66]

Yes fine peak oil is passing/passed but that doesn't mean the demise of the aviation industry. Think about it, aviation could develop so that a more sustainable fuel is used. I am sure most people are aware of the successful biofuel flights made and should this be developed further it could be the main source of fuel in a couple of decades or so. Don't just laugh it off. The situation you are suggesting is that there will be no development in technology; in the history of aviation, technology has developed very rapidly so I think that it will carry on doing so. There will still be tough times ahead due to financial difficulties (which will pass) but I think that the importance of aviation to the world will mean there will be commitment to develop technology to suit the future needs. Who knows this might never happen, although I think it would be suprising if it didn't.

[v6g]

most people are aware of the successful biofuel flights made and should this be developed further it could be the main source of fuel in a couple of decades or so. Don't just laugh it off.

But biofuels displace food production on a massive scale. What are we going to eat? Biofuels (as a replacement for oil) are nothing more than a pipe dream.

[lander66]

I am not neccessarily saying biofuel is the only option, just that it shows that there are alternatives.

[northern boy]

And how is the weather in lala land today?

Wake up guys.

[Planemike]

Hmmmmmmmmm....... A very thought provoking thread.

So a couple of questions/comments. No signs of the major a/c manufacturers (Boeing, Airbus and Embraer) scaling back production. So what do they know that we don't ?

I would agree with much of what is said in the thread, if it is applied to the Western world where our massive overspending financed by debt is coming back to bite us and will continue to do so. However do the same constraints apply in the East where debt is much less of a problem?

Planemike

[northern boy]

Because planemike, airlines in countries that still have an expanding economy, ie The Middle east (well, parts of it) and SE Asia are still buying the things. There is work out there if you are willing to jump through the hoops, leave home and live in a hotel room for a few years.

The requirements for these companies is normally between 3 - 5000 hours plus, significant jet time on type and/or command time. That does not bode well for the 300hour PTF fraternity who are pretty much dependent on the Euro economies for "employment" and subsequent hours building. There will be some who manage it and good for them but the vast majority will get a few months up the front for 30k and that's it.

That is why the manufacturers are still selling . The PTF wanabees, those still looking to bend dad's credit card, are beyond understanding given the current state of the industry, the nonexistent prospects beyond those purchased 6 months and the opinion of their actions which has been voiced here. Denial of reality in the face of such overwhelming evidence is not youthful optimism or laudable ambition, more like incipient psychosis. Which is I suppose what 130K of debt at 20 years old can do to you.