A380's Short Life

[crow17]

Is this the beginning of the end for the dugong?
http://tu.glgroup.com/7TOm6dDlp0SvJyfXkb3VEw (http://tu.glgroup.com/7TOm6dDlp0SvJyfXkb3VEw)>
Have a look at all the links within the artical. They all have the same general theme.
Crow.

[ditch handle]

Was speaking to an engineer in LAX recently who made the following comparison.

When a 747 400 lands it is met by one or sometimes two engineers.

When an A380 arrives it met by a team of between ten to fourteen engineers.

[breakfastburrito]

An orphan fleet with no second-hand market. [deleted]
Just as well he didn't order those those old technology triplers, imagine the financial position QF would be in!

[Trent 972]

Whilst not wishing to defend Dixon in any manner, the A380 was ordered by Strong.

[rescue 1]

Similar conditions economically were around in the '70's following the launch of the B747. And similar sentiment was made by media and commercial commentators, yet that aircraft is arguably the cornerstone of Boeing's success.

Not sure the A380 is dead yet.

[The Green Goblin]

The 747 will still be around the the dugong will be long gone.

As a Punter I like to fly point to point, I can't stand being hubbed through the east coast then the west coast of the US or Singapore.

The twin jet is the future of commercial aviation, just wait for the 777 and 737 replacements :}

[neville_nobody]

I'd be taking those articles with a grain of salt as they appear very pro american

[breakfastburrito]

Trent 972, my bad. Reference removed in original post.

[compressor stall]

I'll never quite work out the anti A380 sentiment

It's coz the traditional big dickers have been outsized and need something else to cover their new found insecurity.

[zlin77]

The future success of the A380 is directly related to "YIELD", when initially launched it was presented as a 550 seat 3 class aircraft, with tangible gains in increased revenue per seat mile, before service entry it had morphed into a 460-470 seat 3 class aircraft, with an approximate fuel burn of 12 tonnes/hour, versus 10 tonnes/hour for a 747-400 with 400'ish seats, the economic benefits initially touted are no longer there, once you factor in increased Air Nav charges, landing fees etc......time will tell, I can only assume that Boeings 747-8 will offer better potential "YIELD"....

[another superlame]

I agree it is a Pro-American article. Boeing is also supported by big goverment contracts and when they don't go Boeing's way they get all upset and cry wolf(eg the 330 tanker).
The 747-8 freighter is the world leading freighter without a doubt, but I don't see the pax version enjoying the same commercial success. Boeing had the chance in the 90's to build the 747-500/600 but were to arrogant to believe airlines wanted it, and when Airbus started with the 380 program they still downplayed it.
It was only after the 380 became a reality that Boeing decided to revamp the Jumbo and publish some figures that poo-pooed the 380. At the end of the day the 747 is a great aircraft but its time has come and gone. The 380 is here it has had a slow and shaky start (so did the 747) but I believe when the world economic situation improves in the next few years airlines will need the 380.

There is no doubting the 777 is a fantastic bit of kit and that it was QFs (Dixon mainly) biggest mistake in not buying them, but as more airports reach capacity surely 2 380 flights rather than 2 777/747 flight will make sense.

The 380 is here and will be for a while.

[Eyes only]

The "GLG Expert Contributor" that writes those article is a well known ex-Airbus employee (Doug McVitie), and another a Boeing hatchet man (Saj Ahmad). Both have a well known anti-Airbus pro-Boeing writing styles.

The GLG Group put a disclaimer at the top of each article "Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG."

The people use that forum and post anonymously as they would not get anywhere if they used their real names, the industry has already dropped their analysis as they lack objectivity.

[FlareHighLandLong]

When I travel to LA (Business Class) I always hope work puts me on the A380.

I'd rather travel on it than the 747. There is acres more room. Everything seems newer (probably because it is - this feeling may fade) and more reliable.

For now, as a customer, I know which one wins.

[parabellum]

Boeing had the chance in the 90's to build the 747-500/600 but were to arrogant to believe airlines wanted it, and when Airbus started with the 380 program they still downplayed it.
It was only after the 380 became a reality that Boeing decided to revamp the Jumbo and publish some figures that poo-pooed the 380. At the end of the day the 747 is a great aircraft but its time has come and gone. The 380 is here it has had a slow and shaky start (so did the 747) but I believe when the world economic situation improves in the next few years airlines will need the 380.

Er... no, not quite. Boeing recognised that the development costs of a super large aircraft would be a lot, they studied the market and voiced doubt about the viability of the SLA but still offered Airbus a chance to go 50/50 on a project, now for the 'arrogance', Airbus refused.

Boeing cancelled their project as they didn't see the market for it, Airbus thought they were producing a B747 replacement requiring similar numbers, but the 747 replacement was already out there in the various forms of the B777 and to a lesser extent the A330 and A340-500. The airlines that operate the A380 like it because it fills a relatively small niche market but that market isn't ever going to be big enough to make the A380 pay back what it owes. 200 sold, over 500 needed to break even.

Boeing offered a revamped B747 but at a fraction of the development cost of the A380 as they already had most of the tooling and a lot of similarity with the tried and tested B747 airframe. Just the size of the order book for the B787 show which way development is going and it isn't going the way of the White Elephant.

[parabellum]

I'd bet QF will order a few more in the near future as will SQ


Thank you Charlie, you make my point for me. The A380 is perfect for the niche market that QF long haul and SQ long haul, on some routes, serve.

There is no doubting the A380's immense passenger appeal, or the fact that technically it is state of the art but commercially it is doomed.

[ferris]

There is no doubting the A380's immense passenger appeal Surely any half-decent business manager can turn that into $$$ ?

And yes, am witness myself to many people who actively seek the A380 out- and pay to do so.

[Rich-Fine-Green]

I make sure my flights to the USA are booked on the dugong. The 747 can't compete from a passenger point-of-view.

[james ozzie]

I am trying to see what is so different from a passenger viewpoint. All the passenger knows is seat width, seat pitch, entertainment sytem, meals & toilet availability. Actually, what else is there? Granted, newness and cleanliness are important but how many passengers think about that when booking flights?

A relative who recently did Sydney to London on a Singapore 380 was not even aware that he was on a "different" aircraft to the normal (yes, he is not as interested in aviation as us bloggers here)

I am of course referring to the area where most of the pax sit.

[man on the ground]

When I travel to LA (Business Class) I always hope work puts me on the A380. I'd rather travel on it than the 747. There is acres more room.

Not in economy there isn't. If anything, I think the new seat design actually limits the amount of effective leg room, making the 15 hours across the pacific more uncomfortable in QF economy on the 380 compared the 744.

[Offchocks]

"Granted, newness and cleanliness are important but how many passengers think about that when booking flights?"

Actually as much as it pains me to say it, I know about 10 earthlings who booked flights knowing they would be on the A380, not all of them flew with QF.

[AdamFrisch]

I haven't flown the A380 and I'm not pro Airbus in any way. However, after having flown the A340-600 from LHR-LAX a million times, it's real hard to go back to the 747. The 747 is noisy (much much noisier than the A340), the plastics rattle, the design of the interiors is outdated even on the newest ones and the bleed air from the engines for the air con always smell of kerosene. So for passenger satisfaction I fear Airbus wins hands down on long haul.

The 777 is a great ride and I'm sure the 787 will be even greater. I look forward to being a passenger on them.

[RedTBar]

Let's sort the facts from the emotion.
The A380 is the latest and as with anything new there will always be people who will want to buy the latest car,TV whatever to be the first regardless of what the new product is like.The 787 when delivered will be the same as will anything else.
You would expect the A380 to be fancier and with more gadgets than older aircraft.The one advantage that it seems to have is that it is quieter.Then again if you have headphones on and you're listening to your favourite channel or latest movie that is a moot point.

I have asked friends after they have had a trip what they flew on and most would not have a clue.If the food is good,the drinks were cold or hot as the case maybe,the IFE has worked and they arrived on time then it wouldn't matter if it was a cessna 150 or a space shuttle.

The questions that should be asked is are the figures for break even realistic and not journalistic rubbish?

If they are true and airbus is not getting enough orders to keep the production line viable then it will not be around for long.
The 747 is noisy (much much noisier than the A340), the plastics rattle, the design of the interiors is outdated
That is not correct,I have flown as crew on an airbus that was on it's second flight and cabin fixtures fell off,the movie screens failed and the crew information screens went south as well.
It's well know that airbus aircraft are nick named plastic fantastic.As for interior design that is an airline issue and has nothing to do with the make of aircraft.

As for help,the EU has been just as guilty as the American government for helping out it's aviation or industry for that matter.

[Wizofoz]

I think you all are missing the point.

It doesn't matter how good the aircraft is if Airbus doesn't sell enough of them to cover its development and build costs.

The figure for break-even must now be North of 600 units, and the order book has been stalled at 200 for the last three years.

Would any business actually responsible to its shareholders persevere with a loss-making project that will continue to cost them billions?

I think Airbus WILL continue low-rate production because of political flag waving and fear of the repercussions of the mass lay-offs canceling the aircraft would bring, but I'm pretty comfortable EADS will NEVER make a profit out of manufacturing the A380.

[bushy]

They kept Concord going for decades.

[ditch handle]

he 747 is noisy (much much noisier than the A340), the plastics rattle, the design of the interiors is outdated

Yes I must admit I had to stifle a giggle at that comment. Whilst I'll grant you our 744s are noisy and tatty [due to lack of investment] compared to the Dugong my understanding is that the lack of ambient noise on the A380 brings it's own set of unique problems.

As for rattling interior fittings well that is most definitely not a problem the 744s have ever had. On the other hand the product from Europe that I do operate on [A330] rattles alarmingly on take off and landing. I doubt the A380 is any different.

Is it all the seats in A zone that move due to foot traffic/floor flex or just 1K?

What about the "Russell Crowe memorial stairs" at the front of the aircraft that groan so loudly [lack of ambient noise] that no one can use them during the night ?

The same for the cart elevator............?

[Led Zep]

G'day bushy,
I don't doubt that the A380 will have a long service life but I, and others it seems, have doubts concerning the length of its production life. Much like Concord. :ok:

[sprocky_ger]

Following the A380 story since its early years (I live close to XFW ;) ) I am pro A380. Besides this fact I am also able to have a look at the market and its numbers.
Sure the A380 will not be sold in numbers like the good B737 but it fits (as mentioned here before) into a special niche. The question is: how big is this niche? Currently about 200 a/c + 50 something options. EK just recently announced to order more A380 aircraft. No numbers were given yet. The current order book will keep the A380 production busy for about 10+ years (depending on production ramp up). I say its enough to secure more orders to extend the production time. To bring the aircraft to success it will need at least 15...25 ordered aircraft a year over that period of time. Looking at the numbers from the last few years I have to express my doubts.:{

A comment on the "quality" and "look-and-feel" debate (Pax view):
Generally I prefer the A320 series over the B737 family aircraft (one reason for me to go on Air Berlin instead of Lufthansa on the route I fly every month). Even with refurbishments the B737 "looks and feels" a bit outdated. Well, this type of a/c is a lot older than the A320. A replacement for the B737 was announced ages ago. Let's see if it will come with an interior that I will like. ;)

[Wizofoz]

EK just recently announced to order more A380 aircraft.

No, they didn't

[sprocky_ger]

Hm, maybe my English is not that good. Get your own impression from this article (http://www.arabianbusiness.com/586760-emirates-chief-says-airline-in-very-strong-position)

He [Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed al Maktoum, chairman and CEO of Emirates Airline] said the global economic crisis had not forced its fleet expansion plans to be put on hold, adding that an announcement of A380 orders would be made soon.

[bullamakanka]

For all the anti airbus / pro boeing guys out there....

There is now another plane out there other than the 747,

The passengers like it more,
The airlines like it more,
Its bigger than yours,
The pilots get paid more to fly it than a 747,

Get over it!!!!!

P.S. Better get used to fly by wire too because all of your new Boeings will have it too.

Bulla