Jetstar International Pax figures... WTF???

[Capt Kremin]

Ok, I have checked this a couple of times and it doesn't add up;

In the January preliminary traffic figures released by Qantas, the pax numbers given for JQ International was 358,000 pax carried at a load factor of 78.5%.

http://redirectingat.com/?id=42X487496&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.qantas.com.au%2Finfodetail%2Fabout%2Fin vestors%2FtrafficStats%2FJanuary2010.pdf&sref=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pprune.org%2Fdg-p-reporting-points-90%2F

At the bottom of the release was a paragraph that basically says that you only counted as a JQ Intl pax if they carried you either in or out of Australia, so JQ domestic feeders or QF codeshares should not count.

"The number of passengers carried is calculated on the basis of origin/destination (ie. one origin/destination journey represents one passenger regardless of the number of stage lengths undertaken)."

Below I have listed every scheduled JQ Intl flight that left or entered Australia in January. I took the maximum number of seats for the A320 and used the scheduled departures to arrive at a seats-per-week (spw) figure offered for each scheduled flight. i.e. Load factor 100%.

Even if a flight was actually cancelled during the month, it still appears here.

If you trust that I got them all and the arithmetic is close, feel free to skip past..

A321 SE Asia Flights Max 210 seats per A/C

DRWSIN JQ61 Daily/ 1470 spw
SINDRW JQ62 Daily/ 1470 spw
SINDRW JQ58 Daily/ 1470 spw

Total 4410 seats per week.

A320 SE Asia Flights All A320 flights use Max 177 seats.

DRWSGN JQ73 12.4.6./708 spw
DRWSIN JQ57 Daily /1239 spw
DRWDPS JQ81 Daily /1239 spw
PERCGK JQ114 1…5../ 354 spw
CGKSIN JQ114 1…5../ 354 spw
PERDPS JQ116 Daily /1239 spw
DPSSIN JQ116 1.3.56/ 708 spw
PERSIN JQ109 Daily /1239 spw
SGNDRW JQ74 12.4.6./708 spw
DPSDRW JQ82 Daily/ 1239 spw
CGKPERJQ115 …4..7 /354 spw
SINCGK JQ115 …4..7 /354 spw
DPSPER JQ117 1.3.56. /708 spw
DPSPER JQ113 .2.4..7/ 708 spw
SINDPS JQ117 1.3.56/ 708spw
SINPER JQ110 Daily/ 1239 spw

Total 13098 seats per week

A320 Tasman Flights

SYDCHC JQ143 Daily/ 1239 seats Per week
SYDCHC JQ151 ..3.5.7/531 spw
MELCHC JQ159 1..4.6./531 spw
MELCHC JQ171 12345.7/ 1062 spw
BNECHC JQ175 .23.5.7/708 spw
BNECHC JQ183 1..4.6/. 531 spw
OOLCHC JQ191 …..6./ 177 spw
OOLCHC JQ191 .2…../ 177spw
OOLAKL JQ239 Daily/ 1239 spw
SYDAKL JQ205 Daily/ 1239 spw
CHCSYD JQ140 Daily/ 1239 spw
CHCSYD JQ150 ..3.5.7/ 531 spw
CHCMEL JQ156 1..4.6./ 531 spw
CHCMEL JQ166 12345.7/ 1062 spw
CHCBNE JQ172 .23.5.7/708 spw
CHCBNE JQ182 1..4.6. / 531 spw
CHCOOL JQ190 …..6./177 spw
CHCOOL JQ190 .2…../177 spw
AKLOOL JQ238 Daily/ 1239 spw
AKLSYD JQ204 Daily/1239 spw

Total 14868 seats per week

A330 flights (303 seats per A/C)

SYDDPS JQ37 ..3.5/ 606 spw
MELDPS JQ35 .2…6./ 606 spw
MELBKK JQ29 .2.4..7/ 909 spw
SYDHKT JQ27 ..3…./ 303 spw
SYDHNL JQ3 12.4.6. / 1212/ spw
OOLKIX JQ19 Daily/ 2121 spw
CNSNRT JQ25 1..4567/ 1515 spw
CNSNRT JQ25 .23…./ 606 spw
OOLNRT JQ11 Daily /2121 spw
DPSSYD JQ38 1…..7/ 606 spw
DPSSYD JQ38 ..3.5../ 606 spw
DPSMEL JQ36 .2…6./ 606 spw
BKKMEL JQ30 .2.4..7 /909 spw
HKTSYD JQ28 ..3…. / 303 spw
HNLSYD JQ4 12.4.6. /1212 spw
KIXOOL JQ20 Daily /2121 spw
NRTCNS JQ26 1..4567/ 1515 spw
NRTCNS JQ26 .23…. /606 spw
NRTOOL JQ12 Daily /2121 spw

Total 20604 Seats per week

Total seats offered per week on Jetstar International flights to and from Australia = 52980

Seats offered per day= 7568

Total seat offered for January 2010= 234625

Claimed numbers carried = 358,000

Claimed load factor= 78.5

Actual Pax numbers if Load factor correct= 184500 approx.

Jetstar had a fleet of 34 A320's 6 A321's and 6 A330's in January. If the ENTIRE fleet was available for the month with no maintenance planned, it comes out at a little over 9000 seats available on J* aircraft each day.

If JQ actually did carry 358,000 pax at a load factor of 78.5% then actual seats required to be offered to achieve that = Approx 450,000 seats per month or 14500 per day!

That equates to about 75% of the seats that would be available from the entire fleet doing a typical two sector Intl day.

Keep in mind also that the claimed figures for JQ DOM in January were 746,000 pax for a combined monthly total of just over 1.1 million.

The JQ DOM Load Factor was 81.8%. To achieve 746,000 pax at a load factor of 82% requires approx 930,000 seats per month to be offered or another 30,000 seats per day!

Is it possible to offer 44500 seats per day on a fleet that size, especially when over half your ASK's are on long haul and regional flights?

I am not having a dig at JQ staff here, and I hope someone will come along and poke a big hole in these figures. The only possible hole I see is that the preliminary figures do not include JQ NZ DOM figures.

Nor should they; they have nothing to do with passengers carried in and out of Australia.

QF domestic codeshares should also not raise the INTL figures due to the covering paragraph. I am not sure about the DOM figures, but considering most, if not all Qantas/JQ codeshare pax are travelling on a QF flight to catch a JQ Intl flight, then they shouldn't count as extras either.

So how can JQ Intl offer 234000 published seats in a month and claim to carry 358,000 passengers in that same month?

What about the DOM figures... how are they possible with the fleet size and the Intl commitment? I look forward to some interesting answers from ppruner's.

[Angle of Attack]

Probably because they count a whole lot of Jetstar pax that actually travel on QF services, even though they booked Jetstar, as usual a massive subsidy service.

[Keg]

Send it all to Ben Sandilands. He and the rest of the Crikey team love stuff like this.

[The The]

WOW! You must have a lot of spare time on your hands. :8

[Spanner Turner]

At the bottom of the release was a paragraph that basically says that you only counted as a JQ Intl pax if they carried you either in or out of Australia


You've included the flights below in your calculations;


CGKSIN JQ114 1…5../ 354 spw
DPSSIN JQ116 1.3.56/ 708 spw
SINCGK JQ115 …4..7 /354 spw
SINDPS JQ117 1.3.56/ 708spw


No Aussie soil involved in these flights. :=

[mister hilter]

Good bit of detective work there Capt Kremin. Do you think it's likely they've also added in the figures for J* Asia?

[tail wheel]

DRWSIN JQ61 Daily/ 1470 spw
SINDRW JQ62 Daily/ 1470 spw
SINDRW JQ58 Daily/ 1470 spw

You may be missing the DRWSIN flight which changes to JQ58?

[Capt Kremin]

Tail Wheel, thanks. Yes I missed that one. Amend seats offered per month to 241135.

Mister Hilter. The J* Asia numbers are included separately, elsewhere in that release.

Spanner Turner. I was conservative so I included those flights as they mave have pax complexing through DPS and CGK. However they should be counted on the flights to get them to and from those two ports I guess. Leave it in to be conservative.

AOA. As far as I am aware, no J* Intl passengers are carried on QF Intl flights. If they were then those flight should be on the published J* Intl schedule.
J* Intl pax ARE carried on QF DOM services but only to get them to ports that have J* Intl flights operating from them. e.g. CBR-SYD-CHC. Therefore they should have been counted under the covering paragraph.

[breakfastburrito]

Kremin, if I interpret your analysis correctly, it would indicate:
358,000 - 244135 = +113,865 more claimed filled seats than could actually possibly exist for the month of January for J* international. Is this correct?

Out of interest 78.5% of 244,135 = 191,646

[WX-T]

THE THE said;
WOW! You must have a lot of spare time on your hands.

Well sir, so must you if you have time to look and post on PPrune. Could it be that people like you are to lazy to do the same hard work as Capt Kremin?

It's to bad more people don't get involved with this type of investigative work to keep the "bastards" honest.

[captaintunedog777]

This joker must have mental problems. How long did this take? Get a life son. This is way too sad.

[breakfastburrito]

Tunedog, do you actually have anything meaningful to add?

Jetstar's overseas growth doubles: travel recovery
Steve Creedy, Aviation writer From: The Australian March 27, 2010 12:00AM

JETSTAR has laid claim to the title of the third-biggest international airline servicing Australia after impressive growth in February international passenger numbers that were 91.3 per cent higher than a year ago.
91.3%, does that strike you as worth questioning? Or would you just swallow it hook line & sinker?

Kremin's either right or wrong. If he is wrong, yes, what a waste of time. What if he is right, would that be a waste of time too? The answer to these questions could have significant ramifications.

[captaintunedog777]

Yeah that's right Qantas making figures up for the ASX. Yep you guys know more.

[mach2male]

Wouldnt be the first time that spurious figures have been presented to the ASX.
Certainly wont be the last

[breakfastburrito]

HIH (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIH_Insurance), Lehman Brothers (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lehman_brothers), Enron (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron), worldcom (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Worldcom), do I need to go on.
Yeh, they did just make it up, and they were all listed companies, including the ASX. Some of the perpetrators even went to gaol.

[Pedota]

Great piece of sleuth work Kremin. . . and yes, I think that is the conclusion breakfastburrito.

I re-read the Qantas Group announcement looking for a 'sneaky' line which might account for the discrepancies . . . perhaps this is it? Despite the release portending to be about the Group defined as . . .

Group (comprising Qantas Domestic, QantasLink, Jetstar Domestic, Qantas International and Jetstar International)

. . . a later sentence implies that Jetstar Asia’s number are also included

inclusion of Jetstar Asia within the Group

I'm guessing Jetstar Asia's numbers have been bundled in with Jetstar International?

The context of these selected quotes are provided in context below (my bold/italic).

Just a thought?

Month of January 2010

January Group (comprising Qantas Domestic, QantasLink, Jetstar Domestic, Qantas International and Jetstar International) passenger numbers increased by 5.7 percent over the previous year. RPKs decreased by 0.2 percent and ASKs were up 0.6 percent, resulting in a revenue seat factor of 81.2 percent, which was 0.6 percentage points lower than the previous year.

Financial Year to Date January 2010
Group passenger numbers for the financial year to January 2010 were up 6.9 percent from the previous year. RPKs increased by 1.0 percent, while ASKs decreased by 1.8 percent, resulting in a revenue seat factor of 82.2 percent, which was 2.2 percentage points higher than the previous year.

Total Domestic (Qantas, QantasLink and Jetstar Domestic operations) yield excluding foreign exchange for the financial year to January 2010 was 6.1 percent lower when compared to the same period the prior year. Total International (Qantas and Jetstar International operations) yield excluding foreign exchange for the financial year to January 2010 decreased by 20.1 percent when compared to the same period the prior year. Qantas international yields showed continued improvement with monthly yields moving from -10.3 percent versus the previous year in December, to -7.7 percent in January. Total International yield movements were adversely impacted by a change in the mix of flying with Jetstar representing a higher proportion of international ASKs and by the inclusion of Jetstar Asia within the Group.

[windytown]

Is it possible that NZ domestic is included in international (ie not Aust domestic)? This would also help explain the high increas in international PAX

[captaintunedog777]

breakfastburrito HIH, Lehman Brothers, Enron, worldcom,

I think son you will find those componies had very complex balance sheets. Simply bulls$%tting monthly figures by JQI as the Kremin dude so easily worked out simply does not gel and Q would not get away with it.

Next please!:ugh:

[ozbiggles]

Capt Kremin has done some work on this. Accurate or not I don't know but it does raise a debate and he presents his workings.
777, you just going to bleat and call people son or are you going to debunk the figures with more than just name calling? If not Kremin wins one nil by TKO

[Mango]

What about adding Jetstar Pacific and Jetstar Asia?

['holic]

ozbiggles,

Don't waste your time. All of tooldog's posts are about sledging, condescending, pontificating and generally making a prick of himself. Then when someone asks him a straight to the point question, such as yours, he'll disappear off into the ether, not to be heard of again til the next thread.

Get a life son. This is way too sad.Apparently there are no mirrors in your house.

[Capt Kremin]

J* Asia's figures are incorporated in the release. If you add all the figures they match the Group Total at the bottom of the document.

The clue is on the Jetstar website.

Jetstar Route Map - Flight Information - Travel Information - Jetstar Airways (http://www.jetstar.com/au/en/travel-info/flight-info/route-map.aspx?utm_source=jq_home&utm_medium=cta&utm_campaign=destinations)

The services that Jetstar apparently consider to be Jetstar International are the ones I have counted PLUS Jetstar NZ DOM. Must be something about a common aviation market I guess.

That doesnt solve the discrepancy however. In January JQ NZ had 131688 seats available for a JQ INTL total of 371840. With a 78.5% Load factor that means they carried 291895 pax. A discrepancy of 66,000 passengers on the official figures!

Tunedog, I am simply trying to explain some figures which, prima facie, do not tally. The work took me about 1.5 hours to gather and collate, something that no aviation journalist seems to be capable of doing.... I printed it here so people could see and check my working.

Its not rocket science when you have the schedules available.

[adsyj]

breakfastburrito
Some of the perpetrators even went to goal.

Was it for offside.

[breakfastburrito]

adsyj, yes, one that got passed the keeper... tish boom

[simsalabim]

Fantastic work Capt Kremin. The concocted figures show us what a sham the whole Jetstar operation is.You have showed Qantas/Jetstar management at its finest.It is all done with smoke and mirrors.The master plan and the aspirations of the bastard child are obvious.The bastard child of the group has only one purpose , to smash the unionised workforce at QF.The brand, like "No Name" spaghetti , has not one loyal customer. It is valueless.Any figures released are to be taken with a grain of salt.When it achieves critical mass it will be buried, the red and white paint bought out , the orange and silver obliterated. No one will miss it.

[Keg]

Does J* code share on any inbound or outbound QF flights? Could this be the extra seats?

[Captain Sherm]

A lot of effort Captain Kremin, well done.

I am a bit frantic right now but will have a look at the numbers and your analysis and see if I can help find a way out of this seeming paradox.

Have to say up front though that I really doubt the answer is going to be in deliberate porkies being told by Qantas to the ASX. That way lies jail and I really don’t think anyone’s that company minded!.

As for the numbers. Til I get a chance to look closely I can’t comment.
But as for methodology…..a couple of points…..there are many caveats but these are a start.

First…..grown men have over the years lost their marbles over attempting to track what constitutes “ a passenger”. Is it:

• An occupied seat for a take off and landing on one sector?
• A person traveling from A to B through any number of intermediate stops, flight number changes and stopovers?
• Ditto….within the one 24 hour period?
• Seat occupied on the same flight number no matter how many stops?
• Etc etc

Second…..be very careful in using “Load Factor” for analysis. It is not simply the ratio of seats occupied to seats available (though for a given flight that is usually true). Load Factor is more usually defined as the ratio of Passenger Kilometres (either revenue or total) to Available Seat Kilometres. So an airline operating lots of short range flights that are largely full and a few long range flights that are only half full might sell way over 75% of all available seats but maybe only 60% of all available seat kilometers.

Anyway….I will look though the numbers and see what the aging Sherm brain can add to the discussion if anything.

[captaintunedog777]

Yes

Kremin dude discovers JQ fraud. Yeah I guess the JQ and Q management weren't counting on conscientious dude such as yourself.

The way you guys band together and believe everything your fellow pilot mate state makes me laugh even harder. I tell you pilots and the business world do not match.

Next please:p

[ampclamp]

I have no doubt jq numbers are correct in some form. As you say there are many ways to count a pax and they will bend over backwards to make them look as good as possible using a plausible method.

Many asx listed companies do what they can to attract attention of investors to put the best gloss possible on their numbers.

You can forget about the asx and asic they are toothless tigers.
They admit they do not have the people or money to chase everything and have come off second best in some high profile cases of late.

I admire kremin for at least trying to dissect their numbers.:ok:
The more scrutiny the better and not just for jq or qf.

[ozbiggles]

Who said all of us believe Capt Kremin?
However he has presented a case, showed his working and allowed for a debate to be held on the issue.
777 has just allowed us to see what happens when a circus loses its clown.
The only real difference is a clown is funny.....and probably has some debating skill

[Capt Kremin]

Why don't you guys go to the Crikey website and type in "Jetstar" on the search page?

[ROH111]

From Crickey...

"The anomalous figures have been referred to the ASX following an analysis of the January traffic figures by “Captain Kremin”, a regular poster on Pprune.org (http://pprune.org/), the Professional Pilots Rumour Network."

CK for PM :ok:

[Capt Kremin]

Qantas has been quoting NZ Domestic passengers and Australian Domestic passengers who travel internally on a flight with a JQ International flight number as JQ International passengers.

Jetstar International didn't carry 358,000 people in and out of Australia in January, they carried 195,000.

Jetstar International are not the third largest International Airline operating in and out of Australia.

Jetstar International didn't grow 100% since January 2009, most if not all that growth came from their replacement of Qantas NZ with Jetstar Domestic NZ, and then quoting those domestic passengers as Jetstar International Passengers.

[Angle of Attack]

Good work CK, we all smelt the stench of a rat when J* figures were released, but you quantified it and just showed how much smoke and mirrors are thrown around the joint! :ok:

[simsalabim]

Some major discrepancies in the figures . Not just a little fudging.
Captain Kremin has struck a blow for honesty and integrity . . He has revealed the compliant , worthless journalistic hacks that mindlessly regurgitate QF/J* press releases into main stream media without any interest in researching the facts. He has revealed the QF public relations spin doctors for what they are. Snake oil salesman .Now that the ASX is involved , as Keg suggested ,these masters of spin in the QF bunker will need to think twice before releasing any dodgy figures.Let's see what the fallout is.Let's see where the rotting stench emanates from.Thank you PPruNe and Captain Kremin. Jetstargate is getting really interesting.

[captaintunedog777]

This is too funny. You honestly think the Kremin dude knows the facts. I think a bunch of sheep comes to my mind. Bah bah

[Capt Kremin]

Tunedog. Qantas confirmed my analysis was correct to Crikey. So yes, I do know the facts.

[Keg]

This is too funny. You honestly think the Kremin dude knows the facts. I think a bunch of sheep comes to my mind. Bah bah

So far Kremin is the only one posting any hard numbers. If his numbers are incorrect then point out how exactly. At the moment you've got nothing. The reality is that most people have looked at Kremin's numbers and found them to be pretty good.

Compare that to how you obviously believe the spin out of QF. Who's the sheep in reality? :rolleyes:

[Keg]

I note that Ben Sandilands has either been trolling PPRUNE or someone has contacted him as he's got an article on Crikey about Kremin's numbers:

I registered on the trial to have a look at his comments but it's not working as advertised.

So, does anyone have the additional bits and pieces to this start:

Qantas is inflating its stock exchange filings of monthly data for its Jetstar International operations with those of its Jetstar New Zealand domestic operation.

The anomalous figures have been referred to the ASX following an analysis of the January traffic figures by “Captain Kremin”, a regular poster on Pprune.org, the Professional Pilots Rumour Network.

I'd be interested in Ben's take on the numbers. If his analysis confirms Kremin's it may be worth forwarding the info to AIPA. I've got no problems with J* being talked up but I'm certainly not impressed at having it talked up to this extent to the detriment of mainline with the sorts of distortions that appear to be going on here.

[altocu]

Ben Sandilands writes:

JETSTAR, QANTAS

Qantas is inflating its stock exchange filings of monthly data for its Jetstar International operations with those of its Jetstar New Zealand domestic operation.

The anomalous figures have been referred to the ASX following an analysis of the January traffic figures by "Captain Kremin", a regular poster on Pprune.org, the Professional Pilots Rumour Network.

For the month of January, Qantas claimed to have boarded 358,000 paying passengers on Jetstar International flights to or from Australia with a revenue load factor of 78.5%. However, Kremin added up all of the seats available on Jetstar International flights. "This is physically impossible to achieve with JQ's Australian fleet and schedules," he found.

"Analysis of the Jetstar schedules shows a massive shortfall in the number of available seats on purely international flights in and out of Australia. There were only approximately 241,000 seats available on those flights in January."

His argument is that Jetstar is not only counting those flown trips entirely within New Zealand but those flying on Australian domestic services that connect with, or continue as, Jetstar International flights. He points out anyone can book a purely domestic seat on these feeder flights, mainly Sydney-Melbourne, and be counted as an international passenger.

Captain Kremin, who has been a thorn in the side of Qantas online for some time, said: "Failure to acknowledge that approximately half of their passengers are flown on domestic sectors in Australia and, incredibly, New Zealand, is misleading at best. Perhaps it is also something that investors should be informed about.

"If I am right the they only carried approximately 190,000 passengers in and out of Australia in January instead of the 358,000 they are attempting to project."

The apparent exaggeration of Jetstar International’s success will be a sore point with those Qantas employees who argue the company is transferring massive assets or subsidies into the low-cost subsidiaries operations in order to hollow out and collapse the terms and conditions under which they work.

This child-eating-the-parent concern is very widespread in a Qantas that is now the junior source of profits for the group.

In response, a Qantas spokesperson conceded Kremin’s analysis of the figures was correct, but defended its inclusion of purely NZ domestic statistics in its international figures as something it had always done.

Qantas also said all passengers on board domestic flights in the Qantas or Jetstar brands that carried international flight numbers for a service with an ultimate destination overseas were counted as international, even if they were getting off before the flight left Australia. (This would have the effect of depressing the reported market share of Qantas compared to Virgin Blue.)

[Koala Sheila]

Great work Capt Kremin. Just because Jetstar includes its domestic NZ ops in the figures proves they are trying to spin as much dribble they can into making their figures looking better.:ugh::cool:

[Capt Kremin]

Memo Steve Creedy: This sort of regurgitation of Jetstar spin won't wash any longer...

Jetstar's overseas growth doubles: travel recovery

Steve Creedy, Aviation writer
From: The Australian (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/)
March 27, 2010 12:00AM
JETSTAR has laid claim to the title of the third-biggest international airline servicing Australia after impressive growth in February international passenger numbers that were 91.3 per cent higher than a year ago. The doubling in size of Jetstar's international arm underscores the growing presence of low-cost carriers, which now account for more than one in five flights on Australian overseas routes.
The Jetstar figures and an overall 14.2 per cent rise in Qantas Group February passenger numbers also bode well for the recovery of the travel industry generally and will step up competition with rival Virgin.
Qantas reported yesterday that it was filling more seats on its planes across the group and that yields were continuing to improve. Group traffic rose by 3.8 per cent in February, to push up the overall seat factor by 1 percentage point to 79.4 per cent.
Jetstar International, which will service 12 destinations when it starts flying to Fiji on Monday, continued to close the gap with Qantas and carried 310,000 passengers for the month, compared with Qantas international's 462,000. Its impressive growth outstripped rising capacity to see it fill more of its seats, its load factor rising a strong 5.3 percentage points to 79.7 per cent.


Based on what we know, this figure was morely likely around 175,000 passengers in and out of Australia at approx 20% of the ASK's of mainline. The alleged growth comes almost entirely from the replacement of QF NZ with J* NZ and the carriage of NZ DOMESTIC passengers.

Thats right, mainline still dwarfs Jetstar International in the figures that matter. Any other interpretation is either lazy journalism or something worse.:ugh:

[OneDotLow]

captaintunedog777 said :

This is too funny. You honestly think the Kremin dude knows the facts. I think a bunch of sheep comes to my mind. Bah bah

Wally...

It appears as though everyone, except captaintunedog777 has known for a long time that there is something very fishy about the performance of JQI. Now if this is the case with the passenger numbers, then maybe, just maybe, there is the slight off chance that we have been lied to about the financial figures as well.

Keep up the investigation!! Hopefully the other news outlets will pick up the story too...

[stubby jumbo]

Top effort Capt Kremin.:D

We always suspected the books were being "cooked"-right back to the Darth days when he would bleat over and over -first the softening up:
1. -"no Qantas mainline service would ever be bastardised by JQ"

then about 18 months later:

2.-"no Qantas mainline service would be bastardised by JQ .......if it was profit making":=

So -cook the books /skew the figures and you have your excuse for running the JQ bulldozer over the once proud QF brand.

Case in point -Gold Coast, Cairns,Perth, Darwin.

Then comes the announcement that -First Class is being removed from many services.

If it looks orange and smells orange.......its fcuink ORANGE !

Some will call me a Luddite on this -but as Capt Kremin has pointed out -sometimes the difference between FACT and SPIN can be very wide indeed.

[ruprecht]

Nice work Capt Kremin.

[ROH111]

The union really should know about this. Qantas pilot's taking flex lines and threatened with redundancies, when work is being dished out to other companies, then Jetstar's performance being well and truely over inflated.

It's bull&hit!

[Reeltime]

And while you lazy journos are copping a spanking over this, why don't you have a good hard look at the APA buyout. I'm sure there is a lot more to that story than we have been told.

[breakfastburrito]

Hard questions, because this is what came out in the wash: after analysing a five-day working week in the media, across 10 hard-copy papers, ACIJ and Crikey found that nearly 55% of stories analysed were driven by some form of public relations. The Daily Telegraph came out on top of the league ladder with 70% of stories analysed triggered by public relations. The Sydney Morning Herald gets the wooden spoon with (only) 42% PR-driven stories for that week.

Many journalists and editors were defensive when the phone call came. Who’d blame them? They’re busier than ever, under resourced, on deadline and under pressure. Most refused to respond, others who initially granted an interview then asked for their comments to be withdrawn out of fear they’d be reprimanded, or worse, fired.
My bold emphasis.
Source:Over half your news is spin- Crikey (http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/03/15/over-half-your-news-is-spin/)

Top work Kremin, where do I send the beer?

[Mstr Caution]

A list of those "hoodwinked" by the original traffic figures:

Staff
Travelling public
Qantas Board
Media
Brokers & Analysts

& if the list includes Airline Exec's :yuk:

[dragon man]

Great work. Any chance you could find the smoking gun of the financial subsidies that main line provide Jetstar. Get that and ill nominate you for the board.:ok:

[breakfastburrito]

A list of those "hoodwinked" by the original traffic figures:
Staff
Mst Caution, may I suggest staff weren't hoodwinked, lied to yes. The staff have known for a long time the books were cooked, but it was very difficult to prove without the books. Audited figures have been asked for repeatedly by various posters:
An audited set of stand alone accounts would lay waste to any theories on transfer pricing, cross subsidisation and the whole litany of crap that permeates from the likes of Buchanan (boston consulting group) et al.
Source:Where Jetstar earns its money- 11th September 2009 (http://www.pprune.org/dg-p-reporting-points/388204-where-jetstar-earns-its-money.html#post5177930)

Then we had a whole thread started to tip a bucket on Kremin by none other that Captain Sherm - Airline Economics and Captain Kremin (http://www.pprune.org/dg-p-reporting-points/405759-airline-economics-captain-kremin-post5518983.html#post5513397)
I could fill a whole page with quotes about the audited results, or lack of them.

Staff hoodwinked, not one little bit. What this does prove is the staff DO care about Qantas, and take a very keen interest in its business - quite literally it's their livelyhoods at stake, unlike every other member of that list They are either on the gravy train or trying to screw anyone to get a cheap flight.

If only the airline management had tapped into that latent residual goodwill, things could have been so different, ANZ as a example. But no, we have the Neanderthals running the show. Imagine if they had tapped into people such as Kremin & many others for the good of the company, but instead management treats it people like a case of the clap & the Kremin's of the world are pushing back.

[Mstr Caution]

Hoodwinked (to deceive or conceal) by management, or lied to.

Either way, mainline staff have been had.

[breakfastburrito]

Either way, mainline staff have been had.Total Agreement.

[hotnhigh]

As a matter of interest, how is the centre for asia pacific aviation reporting its take on the numbers?

[Capt Kremin]

Dragon man....... funny you should mention that.... watch this space.

Guys, thank you but all I did was go to some publicly available information sources and do some, as mentioned, 6th grade maths. Anyone could have done it.
It begs the question, why does a member of the public have to do this? Why are our media outlets so unwilling to do some basic checking?

What Dragon man alludes to is potentially even more explosive. I won't say anything more at the moment apart from alerting our good friends at Crikey. I'll keep you updated.

[altocu]

As a matter of interest, how is the centre for asia pacific aviation reporting its take on the numbers?

Given that along with Steve Creedy they appear to be an extension of the QF PR department, exactly as they're told to is my guess.

[simsalabim]

Some interesting reading here which may answer some questions re: the main stream media's reluctance to cover Jetstargate.


Media Conglomerates, Mergers, Concentration of Ownership ? Global Issues (http://www.globalissues.org/article/159/media-conglomerates-mergers-concentration-of-ownership)

[Mstr Caution]

Would these be the same traffic figures Bruce Buchanan is quoting?

YouTube - Low Cost Airlines 2010: An interview with Jetstar CEO, Bruce Buchanan (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_aj0WuRhRw)

Well look, I think the markets been quite robust for us. If you look at the traffic stats that we report to the ASX or Australian Stock Exchange. You'll see that the demand has been very strong for us in the domestic market as well as the international market

&

Jetstar Expects Lower Costs as Demand Boosts Traffic (Update2) - Bloomberg.com (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a0wrEW.OwG_c)

If you look at our growth rates year on year there continuing to come in at 20 to 30% every year.

[Artificial Horizon]

How long have the accounting practices been like this, if this is how they have calculated pax figures since Jetstar have started operations then surely the year on year increases are valid to a certain extent because they are using the same datum. If however the accounting practices have been changed this year to make the figures look better on this single occassion then that is a worry. So the 'Qantas' man says that this is the way the figures have been calculated every year.... if this is the case I can't see what all the excitment is about :confused:

Also as stated above, all this information was there for anyone to discover, it is stated in the reports (albeit in small print) exactly what has been included in these 'international' figures. As Kremlin has shown it is all there for anyone to see if they look hard enough, hardly a big conspiracy that some are making it out to be. I certainly am not naive enough to believe the stats and figures that are presented to the public daily, by business, government etc... Did anyone see the latest crime figures issued in New Zealand, overall crime was down but on closer inspection year on year violent crime was up 20%, you can make a statistic say anything depending on how you calculate it. Were Jetstar Int. pax up from last year.... probably, were they up 70%..... who the hell knows without a forensic audit of the books.

[busdriver007]

Remember the previous CFO has left because of "family reasons".........:confused:

[Capt Kremin]

One million Kiwis fly Jetstar since June 2009domestic launch | TRAVEL News (http://tvnz.co.nz/travel-news/one-million-kiwis-fly-jetstar-3452628)

Which is it Mr Buchanan?

[DutchRoll]

Gee Tunedog has gone quiet all of a sudden.

[Capt Kremin]

BITRE released its February aviation figures today.

International Airline Activity - Monthly Publications (http://www.btre.gov.au/info.aspx?ResourceId=211&NodeId=103)

Compare the total PAX carried by Jetstar International figures from the Qantas February release to the ASX, quoting 12 month growth of 78.4% and a total number of pax carried of 358,000, with the actual International passengers counted by BITRE of 162271!

That's correct. The use of domestic passengers inflates Jetstar Intl figures by 121%!!!

The ACTUAL growth figure of International pax carried by Jetstar Intl in February was 26% caused almost entirely by the winding down of Australian Airlines and the gifting of their Japan routes to Jetstar Intl.

Qantas, of course seems to have no intention of presenting the true figures to the ASX. It released its Mar 2010 traffic figures today which the analysts seem to have bought hook line and sinker.

http://media.wotnews.com.au/asxann/01050253.pdf

IG Markets Australian Market Wrap - International Business Times (http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/20100503/cfd.htm)

According to the release, Jetstar International flew 310,000 passengers in March, a rise of 91% in 12 months.

My prediction is that these astronomical rises will cease in July, 12 months after Jetstar International began adding NZ Domestic passengers to its numbers.:ugh:

[UnderneathTheRadar]

Jetstar NZ pilots should put in a claim for the rest of their Jetstar Intl pay!