pilots help needed...

[matonking]

I need the help of a current pilot, preferebly a captian who knows the industry back to front...

i've been trolling around the forum for months.. and im thinking of starting training in august at BCFT, this course takes 12 months doing the modular route full time...

My question is simple, when is the industry likely to bounce back? With 1000's upon 1000's of unemployed proffesional and newly graduate pilots been spat out into the olympic sized swimming pool...

... some say 2012, some say 5 years and some say 10!...

with that many pilots in the pool.. is the likelyhood for employment for a newly qualified - still smelling of the paint from the ground schooling - to be closer to the 5 year mark?

If so, then i'm seriously considering going back to uni to finish my aeronautical engineering course.

Please, dont say to look on the forum, as i said i've looked around endlessly to the point where i my heads about to explode.

I was talking to a pilot from japan airlines who lives in the UK, and he says that in eastern continents its looking better with 2-3 waits...
I was talking to a pilot from Loganair and he says 2 year wait BUT there are jobs out there if you really look ( but most people from OAA and the likes overlook them as they think they are too good for props )...
I was talking to a relative who works for BA and he says it could easily be 2014...
And on looking at some comments on the forum it seems to be the same idea 2012-2015 before anyone is really looking to seriously start hiring ( and you have to consider the pool to be drained first )

so yes please just a simple date/ time period in your honest opinion is what i'm looking for..

[Whirlygig]

Matonking, can you see into the future? No? Neither can anyone else.

So, some time between 2012 & 2017 may be about right.

Cheers

Whirls

[matonking]

I do have a mystigmeg app for my phone :O But she's useless, aparently i'm going to meet someone with the letter A and E today... who'd of thought :D

And i know, 2012+ seems to be a common response.

If i may i'd like to list some of the thoughts i've been having lately...

pro's -
I love the freedome of flying
I love the fact that you can experience something new each day
I love the fact that the job itself is a challange and unique to almost any other job

con's -
bad job security ( people say a good chance of redundancy at least twice in your career )
bad working hours which are unsociable
poor family life
degrading working conditions and expectations
60k in debt + the possibility to have to pay type .. and trying to live off of a £20k a year starting salary
medicals and assessments every years - 6 months of your career


i could go on and on and on about the cons, but its those three LOVE's that are driving me towards it. Im just not sure i want to be 60k in debt and have to worry about keeping my license up to date and pay for medicals and IR's on a crappy job somewhere in a shop ( as i dont have a degree )... AND save up for the 60k debt repayment ( as i've negotiated an interest only plan so you'd pay off a lump sum of 60k at the end of the 10-20year time period)

my thoughts are... theres loads of negatives.. and i wonder if i should just give up and get a PPL at some point in my life... Job salaries between a pilot and a Charteres aeronautical engineer are pretty much identical at the top end IF not better.

[Whirlygig]

at BCFT, this course takes 12 months doing the modular route full time...Why full time? No rush.

Finish your degree, get a job and PPL, then hour build, then worry about the employment market.

Cheers

Whirls

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The last recession was in 1990 and the industry got good for Wannabes around 1998. Take 2007, add 8 years = 2015.

That's at least a guess based on past experiences.

This time Pay To Fly changes the game. But make no doubt, I was face to face with a new recruit to the Wannabe Zombie Army last week, they are relentless. Despite not knowing what an IR is, not even knowing that jobs were hard to come by, not even ever having been in a light aircraft ever - they had applied to Oxford and were doing 'the basic' Integrated course starting early next year. Daddy was paying, working away for the last 6 months in the energy industry he was quite happy to compensate his offspring for the lack of attention by writing a big cheque to OATS. No questions asked, no research conducted.

It happens all the time.

These people can out spend you. Out re-current you. Out type-rate you. Out pay-to-fly you.

And the worst of it.

Its not even a lifelong dream job for some of them.


Be very careful. Train slowly. Avoid debt. Interest rates will rocket. You can really screw up your life with flying training.

Good luck,


WWW

[matonking]

Thank you for your response WWW, I've gotten in contact with my glasgow university and i'll see what happens next before I sign any dotted lines.

Loving to fly and making a living from it are two completely different things.

I was blind when I decided to quit uni in persuit of this career, but after being kicked back from OAA and having to spend another couple months re-evaluating the market I think its stupid to do any sort of training at the moment.

I can graduate, just 2k in debt and be more likely to get a job within a year of graduation compared to 60k in debt by 2012 and spend at least 3 years waiting around.

I have a lot of thinking to do this week.

thank you everyone for your response.

[UAV689]

WWW, met one myself recently, never stepped into a light a/c, plums in mouth and from a very well off part of NW London and on CTC.

Polite chap but made my blood boil when i mentioned about the pay to fly contract, shrugged sholders and said 'if i have to pay another 30k + for jet time so be it' What a tool.

It was then I realised is it worthwhile carrying on, working 7 days a week to be up against these daddy pays queue jumpers, there must be 1000s of them out there.

Back to original Q - going to be rubbish out there for years, i think it is now going to be totally different to what it has been, no rapid expansion (ryanair and easy will be halting their expansion after current deliveries) I cant see where the glut of new positions is going to come from. Worst case I forsee is the likes of OAA/CTC et al getting a real strangle hold on all new FO positions whereby you must go or have been through them to get in to anywhere, yet paying even more money for TR and contract work because that way it will keep OAA and the likes alive.

For god sakes, finish your degree and get a plan B. I have mine. Don't get into a penny debt trying to get in this cess pool of a career (unless it is for a 100% in the bank job at the end of a TR, not contracting! Then I would be willing to take a loan)

[Torque Tonight]

Let me get this straight. You're thinking of dropping out of an Aero Eng degree to pursue commercial flying training this year. If you do that, you'll end up with no degree and, most likely, no job.

Get your degree, have another look at the professional flying market after you graduate and if things have improved, consider training then. That way you might end up with both a degree and a job, instead of neither. You'd be nuts to sacrifice your education to try to get into aviation especially now of all times.

However, maybe you'd prefer me to say the aviation industry will suddenly become absolutely rosy on 31 Aug 2011 at 17:00 BST.

[b.a. Baracus]

was face to face with a new recruit to the Wannabe Zombie Army last week, they are relentless. Despite not knowing what an IR is, not even knowing that jobs were hard to come by, not even ever having been in a light aircraft ever

Beggars belief. I mean come on, how can you not know what an IR is before spending £70k on an integrated course.

I don't usually contribute to threads like this, but if what WWW has described in his previous post is true, then i find it more irritating than Venessa Feltz.

[Dan Winterland]

Speaking as an airline Captain with a son about to start his aeronautical engineering degree, I have told him that he should concentrate on getting his degree with a career and not consider a career as a pilot.

The industry has been screwed by unscrupulous airlines and their accountants who view pilots as a legitimate source of revenue - just as passengers are. It will never be the same.

Forget the dreams. They are unachievebale in the current climate. And if you do get there - the job will have no reward with the pressures of debt and uncertainty. The glamour of airline flying has gone forever.

[matonking]

@ torque tonight

No, I left last year and i've been researching starting a CPL for nearly a year but just in the past month the amount of negative posts recieved have just gone up rediculous amounts!
And the overall charge for everything , and the face of the debt and uncertainty is beyond what I originally percieved when I left the degree.

Hopefully I can go back in august, I have a meeting with my adviser later in the week.

@ Dan Winterland

Thank you for your comments, my Dad was :mad: when i said i was wanting to leave my course, then he was :mad: when i said i wanted to change from OAA to BCFT .. I know he's going to be MAJORLY :mad: when i say i want to go back to uni ; even though technically its the right option :rolleyes:

Thank you everyone for your words... i'm still stressed about everything but i think i'm making the right choice.