A glimmer of hope maybe

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Now some of you may have noticed that I have been a little Bearish of late. <cough>

But. Just this last couple of days, with a million caveats, I have detected faint tremors of hope for Wannabes. The odd friend who got a private jet job, the redundant old chum now offered a 777 job, the whiff of a pilot shortage for the fast encroaching summer season at some well known UK airlines.

There's a lot of dirty brown water to get under the bridge, make no mistake. But, maybe its just the daffodils going to my head, for the first time in a long while I see just a few signs of optimism for Wannabes.

I tend to get shot down for being counter to the prevailing wisdom and I see no reason to expect differently now.. ;)


WWW

[Coffin Corner]

www are you sure you're feeling ok? I can recommend a good doctor ;)

[Adios]

I read far fewer stories of airlines going under and far more of airlines making investments in their fleets and infrastructure, albeit much of it is long range. Add to that the IATA starting to report growth in traffic over last year. I won't jump up and shout recovery, but maybe the tide is starting to turn.

I wouldn't rule out that politicians or big money might set things back again due to greed, arrogance, stupidity or just strategic miscalculations though. Greece and other vulnerabilities in the Euro zone are worrisome, not to mention the weakening appetite for US Government debt. There are a few worries about sovereign debt and then there's the avaricious over-building on the sands of Dubai. Wasn't it said the wise man builds his house on the rock?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I do feel slightly giddy but todays Spring sunshine has perhaps had an effect.

I foretold the credit crunch, the HPC and and the severity of the recession. If I can follow through and predict the recovery then truly I am Vince Cable amongst mere Men... I'm probably wrong. The situation is probably as awful as I secretly fear it to be.

WWW

[Piltdown Man]

WWW, don't build their hopes up too much! Yes things are very slowly getting better, some airlines are expanding ever so slightly, there will always be retirees and other attrition meaning that there will be recruitment. But the numbers we are talking about will only be ones and twos. Nothing to go re-mortgaging your parents house for.

If I were to stick my neck out, I'd say things will be going in the right direction when banks are prepared to lend at LIBOR plus 3-4% (and not their current 10%), interest (Base) rates are at 3-4% and the economy is still growing.

And for the final damping, those who will get the jobs first will be those with the right face, the appropriate rating and reasonable experience.

PM

[Adios]

Piltdown Man,

When you say things will be going in the right direction when banks will lend at Libor plus 3-4% instead of 10%, what sort of loan purpose are you speaking of? BBVA make flight training loans for CTC, FTE and OAA at 90-day Libor plus 2.25%, a rise of .25% from what they charged pre-recession.

I would say when Libor is up to 3-4%, things will be heading in the right direction. A growing economy will mean more people are more willing to borrow, whether for a mortgage or other wants/needs. People wanting property will jump in when they think prices are on the rise for good. Demand for loans will drive up interest and we'll know recovery is in motion.

The only bank I know of charging high interest for flight training loans is NatWest. Their rate is unethical in my opinion, ranging anywhere from base rate plus 4% secured up to base plus 7% unsecured. It's bad enough when a recession leads to defaults, but with this loan, recovery could lead to defaults!

[londonmet]

My own personal acid test (and I profess to know nothing about the economy) as to when the tide has turned is when BA start recruiting again.

L Met

[Bruce Wayne]

WWW.

indeed the industry does seem to be showing signs of a thin skin forming, i wouldnt say 'solidifying' just yet.

I really dont think things will change for better until there is some degree of faith in the fiscal policies of government and that wont happen until we see the back of the current bunch of imbeciles in charge of the asylum.

the current bunch of idiots have a hard on for cap and trade and decrying anything aviation for the huggy fluff vote and to support the ludicrous CO2 cap and trade folly.

I sincerely hope that following the General Election we see an administration more 'pro' business than taxing everything in sight. Once that happens and there is faith in the fiscal policies of the UK administration aviation may well start to recover somewhat.

likewise, I too will gaze at the daff's when they pop through the crusty ground and hope that soon this industry may start to defrost in some sunlight.

[JohnnyPharm]

I think everyone knows that the retirement bulge is now imminent, just like it has been for the last twenty five years, so there are going to be loads of jobs :ok:

[ba038]

I being a wannabe and reading what WWW had just posted. My initial reaction was. Ecstatic! :eek:

[Luke SkyToddler]

It's really one step removed from you wannabe's - but I can tell you guys that out here in the sandpit, the pilot shortage is really starting to bite the employers hard

Air Arabia hasn't stopped hiring throughout all this chaos of the last couple years, and there's all of a sudden some very interesting contract jobs coming up, the turkish carriers (THY and Onur) both recruiting hard, a bunch of south americans have resigned and gone home in the last few days because Lan chile / Lan peru starting a massive hiring binge and a couple of new startups in Brazil with some serious money backing them. There's just a few holes appearing in the recruitment dike all of a sudden, and new deliveries of aircraft haven't slowed down yet. Read all the bitching in the ME forum, every single one of us is on our absolute maximum rolling 900-hours-in-12-months all of a sudden and they can't get new people into the seats fast enough.

Like I say none of this affects you guys directly in terms of sending CVs to EK/EY/QR because they still won't hire people without significant heavy jet time, but everyone who leaves a European lo-co or whatever and comes out here, is vacating a seat that you can hopefully fill :ok:

[767200ER]

aww so i wasn't crazy to talk about *some* recovery after all :) good luck to us all!

[billybuds]

Wannabe, have you tried EZY through CTC?

[Artie Fufkin]

The adverts section in Flight last week carried ads for all the big Integrated FTOs advertising their courses. Haven't seen that for a while. Made me double take.

The one bit of credit you have to give to Oxford, was that they launched their APP course to coincide with the first "graduates" finishing just as the last upswing occurred. Which I don't beleive for one minute was coincidence.

But as was said above, until BA & Virgin open their doors...

[G SXTY]

Luke’s comments tie in with the word on our grapevine, that opportunities are opening up in sandy places for those with a couple of thousand hours of jet or glass TP time. If that’s the case, it would suggest movement further down the ladder within a year or two.

Personally, being an old cynic, I think the spring sunshine has got to WWW and he’s just overdosed on vitamin D. ;)

[go around flaps15]

I agree. The fact remains that far more pilots are losing their jobs than those that are being GAINFULLY employed.

[Gazeem]

I had to read the OP twice........ WWW I too am concerned.


It's a cycle, pilot management can never get it right. Like a few others I think a few UK carriers have cut their numbers fine. Always embarrassing to explain why aircraft are on the ground or flights are being sub-chartered.

But before people start signing away hundreds of thousands there is still a lot of meat in the sausage machine. It takes at least four to six months to get a cadet on to the line - the training funnel.

[tigermagicjohn]

WWW I have just enrolled at Oxford after your message here, thanks - full package now, streamrolling, Zero to Hero, + TR on both 737 and Airbus, which is best? 320 or 380?

I feel like I have just won the lottery after the positive message here on PPRUNE, it must surely be the current siberian polar continental that has swept over and created a low level isothermal inversion WWW.

It's never to late for the glass to be half full, instead of half empty! :E

[JohnnyPharm]

Is it best to pay all the training up front or pay in tiny increments?

[Bruce Wayne]

Is it best to pay all the training up front or pay in tiny increments?


Pay up front of course.. get a loan secured on your house, the wife and kiddies will love it when you get snapped up by BA on 150k per annum without even dipping your toes in a hold pool.*





*Note: this is of course sarcasm.

[tigermagicjohn]

Yes pay up front, and dont forget to pay the 5% contingency, and a bit extra for isolated - because if not you might feel very lonely and isolated when you discover you need a couple more hours in the end, so you can make sure you can land at your final destination, which of course is a bit isolated.

I would say now, as the recession seems to be over, quickly over to the bank before the weekend, and secure yourself a loan for the whole training, just be honest and tell them that within few years you will be a rich FO/Captain with one of the major airlines, normally it is enough if you bring them your log book, just to show you really have some experience, dont worry about what you show them, they wont understand anyway. Quickly get the cash now, and great fortune to you too!:8

[Luke SkyToddler]

The question is, are the jobs that are starting to appear, worth spending the money on the qualifications to do them? This industry has changed forever - for the worse - since old gits like me got into it even a decade ago. We're starting to see situations where experienced and decent pilots are getting told they're overqualified for jobs - because they want punters who are prepared to buy an absurdly inflated price type rating, and then work for free or pay-to-fly.

Now the lo-cos and the beancounter-run-airlines totally dominate the aviation landscape, they've had their taste of wannabe blood in the last couple years and they aren't going to give it up without kicking and screaming no matter HOW much of an experienced pilot shortfall comes to pass.

And now I start to see the likes of Easyjet (which used to be a decent outfit to work for) handing off even their "experienced" pilot recruitment to CTC and this garbage flexi crew contract thing, that looks to be the next level of pilot shafting starting to take shape, where even people with good experience on modern jets also get the piss taken on new-wannabe T&C's by some shady agency whose executives are creaming countless thousands for doing nothing. Agency jobs are supposed to be for dodgy far flung third world flea pits - not for the likes of Easy and Ryan to drive down T&C's in their own back yards. Korean Air and their associated agencies are now doing pay-for-command schemes, and I'd give it not long before the first one of those rears its head in a European lo-co as well.

I'm glad I'm out of the European scene forever, I'll go back to working on the farm before I sign up to any of that horsesh!t :mad: and if I was a European wannabe now I'd be taking a looooong hard look in the mirror, I just can't see an end to the perpetual paying-for-qualifications and general shafting, at ANY stage of a pilot's career now.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I raised this thread partly to demonstrate that when the facts change so does my opinion. We are a long way from a position where I can honestly recommend spending any money on flying training in pursuit of commercial employment. Things still are grim for Wannabes and will remain so for some time and may yet get grimmer. We have the prospect of a double dip recession and of public spending cuts on scale never seen in Europe ever before. I don't suffer from bi-polar disorder. I'd still call myself a Bear and a grizzly one at that.

However.

People whom I know who lost their jobs at XL and Globespan and elsewhere have now got themselves replacement jobs. In some cases on B777's. Yes its usually a hot and sandy escape tunnel but it is a fact. Parts of the world are going to expand their aviation sector this year and next. The picture, whilst very dark, is not quite the unending chasm of bleakness it was a year ago.

Thankfully.


WWW

[UAV689]

cathy posted a profit today...but lingus posted a loss, albiet smaller than previous i believe.

Mrs UAV was unable last weekend to get a buiness class flight from LHR to Hong Kong, on any carrier, and her and her collegues are on seperate flights/days coming back due to lack of seats. I know there is reduced capacity but maybe this will begin to increase again...what do I know, very little!

interesting this thread hasnt grown as quick as the huge downturn thread - we are all so negative by nature!

[shaun ryder]

Im with you LST. I see no future here as an exprienced jet FO. No movement for us within this industry as it is :mad: because of ctc and the like.
Sticking around for a non existent command due to NO movement of experienced crew because they are out of favour. Great, im finally thinking of giving up and moving to the sandpit, not ideal at all but at least the monies better.

[6000PIC]

One forgets that with this idealistic talk of recovery comes the rampant rise in the price of petroleum. Let`s see how many airlines can handle a sustained $ 100 per barrel of oil. Many are yet to fall.

[flyvirgin]

Www,
Thank you, I really respect you, (no I’m not being sarcastic) your comment really made my day, you have gave me a glimmer of hope that all this hard work has (or maybe) payed off, I know things will be hard for us wanabes for years to come, but your post really made my day, Thanks,
Many happy landings to you sir!
Flyvirign

[tigermagicjohn]

Www, yes man.

Every single day, and every word you say. Every move you make, every step you take
I'll be watching you! ;)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Hmm.

I could write five pages about what is wrong and what the risks to the economy are and about 5 words on the upside. So don't go turning this bear in to a bull.

If there's any good news its all at the top end of the profession and its all to do with hot/humid/dictatorship areas of the planet. Its got sod all to do with the average British/Euro/Western wannabe - yet. In 2008 I was saying don't even think about coming out of training until 2012. I stick by that but at least now we're halfway there..

The world on the other side of this war on wannabes is not going to be as it was though. The finish line has been moved back a couple of years. Its not going to be until you have a couple of thousand/couple of years jet airline time that you get to get what was commonly accepted as a proper airline job.

The rungs on that ladder just keep getting jerked higher and higher. Its evil.


WWW

[Mintflavour]

WWW

With your wisdom of economics, please could you advise the best place to invest my childs trust fund voucher?:)

Thanks

mint

[manxcat]

BBC News - Airline industry recovering, says Iata trade body (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8561909.stm)

Good news: IATA announce The global airline industry will recover strongly this year, as both passenger and freight numbers improve

Not so good news: European and US airlines were still suffering the most

God knows, wannabees need a glimmer of hope (even if it is a very dim light at the end of a very long tunnel)

WWW knows his onions so it's still slowly slowly catchy monkey until 2012 for me :ok:

[EI-CON]

Just heard yesterday that Aer Arann has taken back on a few guys that they let go last year(I heard of FO's)

Again nothing to go wild about but at least it is another positive sign and good to see that they may be getting back on track.

[Denti]

There is actually a glimmer of hope even in europe. However, probably not as much in the UK as the UK got hit much harder than other european countries by the economic crisis. Don't make the mistake by judging all of europe by UK or irish standards both in terms of new jobs and quality of said jobs.

We didn't have to fire pilots and in fact had to hire them lately while we still could use quite a few more but do not have the necessary training capacity at the moment. With the ongoing union negotiations about new working conditions (FTL and the like, not pay) we face still another necessary hiring spree later this year and honestly do not know how we will cope in the summer due to lack of staff, our turboprop subsidiary is currently subchartering capacity because they do not have enough staff to operate one of their planes while the mainline FOs are flying near their maximum duty time. Of course this is only one of many airlines and only one of three or so hiring in germany at the moment whereas many others in europe are in much worse shape and quite a few went bust.

[RexBanner]

Well as many pilots up sticks and leave for the sandpit and to other parts of the world, that should surely free up some positions for wannabes at some point be it winter this year or next. Seeing as WWW has been so honest I will be honest too and say that back in late 2007 I regularly had arguments with WWW and called him a doom-monger and various other names but I have to concede he was right. Hats off to him in fact as he called it pretty well. There's a reason I havent posted on this board since the collapse of Lehman's and its not purely because I've had my head stuck in the ATPL books or because I've been stressing over my IR.

I've just finished my MCC and had a pretty immaculate training record yet the prospects of a job out there are dismal. Hoping to keep my hand in as a pilots assistant on a Citation Mustang and flying a piper cub (hardly ideal for keeping the IR skills up but better than nothing). But I will stick in there because sooner or later it will turn (it always does). But I just thought I would apologise to WWW give him his dues because I've seen that he calls it as he sees it rather than the opinion I had of him that he was doing it to wind up wannabes like me!

[quagmiregiggidy]

The way I see things(im no expert but I see things from right in the middle of the mix at the moment),there are positions for first officers, but these are very limited, and for the average bod who wants to stay in the UK and bring a family up they are like rocking horse poo.
There are currently only a few ways to get airline employment at the moment.
Heres my experience following recent mass redundency and the requirements to get hired.
a) have over 2000 hours Jet time preferably glass cockpit time, even better if its an airbus, and even better if you speak an additional language or are resident in a country who only take their own nationals.
b) have over 500 hours either on type or are wealthy enough to pay for ones rating and have a a degree.(Korean)
c) the integrated route with a provider who will place you with an airline.(is there such a thing still going)
d) integrated or modular then the Ryan air cadet scheme (not a hope with them as an experienced F.O), or CTC for the likes of Easyjet.
It seems the instructor route,hours building route, or type rating route with some line flying are at least for now not going to provide that lucky break for most.
For anyone who started airline flying within the last 12 to 24 months,who has under 2000 hours total, with less than 1500 hours on type or who has recently qualified, things will be a big struggle.
I have the feeling that the people who need to be most aware of the current and likely future hiring position are those more mature wannabees who intend to go down the modular route and hours build or buy a rating.I wouldnt do it.
It is a terrible place to be at the moment (an unemployed airline pilot) but if you are lucky, have lots of hours on type and or are willing to live somewhere far away from home or be in the same position this time next year, then there are certain jobs.
Is it perking up as WWW states? well I think it depends what he means. If he means that the market as whole is improving then he is not correct, far from it.
If he means that there is a positive blip at the moment then that is correct, but dont be fooled, that is the usual pre summer improvement and overall doesnt reduce the numbers of umemployed pilots long term, with the exception of the middle east.
If you have the experience there are certain contracts out there or 'careers' in Doha, but if your starting out and have a new blue book, without the bank of mum dad behind you then your up the creek without the paddles.If you do have the funds, for goodness sake dont do a type rating unless you have a job offer at the end of it.
I was one of the pre Christmas airline administration casualties and while most if not all of us are now employed its been a tough few months searching. The middle east soaked up about 50 percent of us requiring those 2000 hours, all but a few that were left are on six month contracts with the likes of JET 2, Viking or abroad in deepest darkest Africa, and the odd lucky one got a full time position with an airline.
In six months time lots of us will be signing on again as those contracts finish, then there will be more experienced first officers chasing jobs once again. Is it picking up ,overall the answer is no, its just a bit of a small wave at the moment, the summers coming so people have been taken on, those same people will be making the new year 2011 up turn look good again too, after Christmas on the dole. In the mean time , we have a budget to come as well as an election in the UK with the resulting cuts to attempt to drag us out of our near bankrupt state;together with the real possibility of the UKs largest carrier going to the wall and flooding the market with experienced pilots.
And for those currently employed in this uncertain world, I offer this advice, the time from redundency to re employement for those of us who have just been through it has been on average been about 2 to 3 months for a line Capt, and 4 to 5 months for a line F.O. so make sure you have those funds set aside to feed your nearest and dearest.
In summary, there is movement in the middle east for experienced F.O.s and there are temp contracts for F.O.s in Europe, but for wanabees, its same ole same ole.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

RexBanner - good to see you again and congratulations on completing your training. No apologies are needed. You contributed to the cut and thrust of a debate that was illuminating for many Wannabes. That was the whole point and not who was right or wrong. Long experience has taught me that there's nothing like a heated debate to draw people in and expound their viewpoint. Hopefully this creates the wisdom of crowds and everybody gains.

Good luck with your job hunting. Its gonna be tough but then they're still building new airliners faster than they're scrapping them so its not Mission Impossible. Not quite.

WWW

[Grass strip basher]

Well I disagree with WWW. If you are a UK based wanabee things still look rubbish and are likely to remain so. The UK has solved none of its problems. The banks still have to refinance over GBP400bn of debt over the next 2-3 years (realistically only the government can fund this adding to their already huge debt pile). If sterling continues to weaken the likes of Ryan air and Easy have to suffer as the cost of those European weekends away goes through the roof.

A hung parliament will be a disaster and as sterling collapses the UK airlines will only suffer as fares have to increase and the cost of those overseas holidays goes up. A strike from BA can only compound their problems. I reckon we are 1 crisis down... 2 to go...

1) Financial crisis: Blame the bankers.... it is all their fault
2) Political crisis: hmmm maybe it wasn't all the bankers fault... lets blame the politicians (watch for this later this year/early 2011 when they start to cut public spending... I pity whoever wins this election)
3) Social unrest and ultimately social reform.... hmmm maybe it is the general public living beyong their means that is the problem... geeez maybe we should borrow less and save more?? Revolution!

The UK has more debt now than it did coming in to this crisis and the problem is solved?? :=:=:sad:
I left the UK 2-3 years ago and have lived in the middle east and Asia since.... there are oppotunities here but it is becoming tougher and tougher as an expat to get you foot in the door as these markets mature the nod will always be given to locals first. I would love to agree with WWW but sorry way too soon to sound the all clear.

[ei-flyer]

I would love to agree with WWW but sorry way too soon to sound the all clear.

I don't think sounding the all clear was WWW's intention. Personally I think the thread title sums up what he's getting at, and I tend to agree.

The key words are 'glimmer' and 'maybe'. Who knows... No one, yet. :confused:

[MVE]

Grass Strip Flyer, couldn't agree with you more.
The housing market is still grossly overpriced and not likely something that any government is going to want to face up to for a long time yet, that will be the real pain for this country, when the true value of the housing market is realised it will make the bank crisis seem like child's play!
We have a car industry that has been falsely propped up and is likely to falter/crash when the cash for scrap scheme ends and airlines are still struggling. Interests rates on CC's at a high compared to base rates, untold debt that hasn't been paid back and unemployment set to rise further still.

I like to see the glass half full but in this case I can't even see any milk.

Wannabes should wait another 6 months to a year before STARTING training and then only with other options to live on at the end of the course. Although I wouldn't recommend this job to any relative/friend of mine but that's another story.....

[JohnnyPharm]

remember the retirement bulge as well:ok:

[potkettleblack]

AS Grasstrip says on a global basis taking into account the growth in the ME and Asia there are glimmers of hope but if you are looking at the UK and Ireland then things aren’t so rosy. For those of us fortunate to have a job its a matter of keeping your head down and getting continually shafted as our management conveniently use the financial climate in order to push through changes to our T&C’s that will have life changing implications. Some of us can’t or won’t up sticks due to family or relationships so its a matter of sitting tight and wondering if leaving those high paying jobs was really worth it after all.

In this part of the world the biggest driver in the market has always been BA. When they hire (either through growth in fleet numbers or to cover retirement bulges) it tends to suck up from the smaller operators and leave operators such as Flybe on the hunt for wannabes.

When I got my first job back in early 2007 there were huge opportunities. BA, BMI, Aer Lingus, Aer Arran, Flybe, Air Southwest, Air Wales, Ryanair, Eastern Airways, Loganair plus any number of the charters were all recruiting for a low houred wannabe. People were coming out of places like GECAT with NO hours and a type rating and already had a job lined up. The TRTO’s were acting as a defacto job agency as the airlines couldn’t get their hands on enough qualified f/o’s. It was an unbelievable time looking back at it now.

This time though I think things will be different. Firstly, petrol is no longer cheap and secondly credit is no longer available as freely. Also private equity houses and investors in general have wised up and are under no illusion that there is no money to be made from a start up airline. Look at Zoom or Silverjet if you want to see how it can all go badly wrong. Many of the smaller niche airlines have gone under and possibly a few more to go and certainly I see consolidation on the horizon with possible mergers across Europe. Mergers tend to be bad news for most parties except the lucky CEO that backed the right horse. Also we now have Pay2fly schemes whereby airlines can fill any seat it would seem through agencies like CTC at the drop of the hat and on reduced T&C’s. Who needs to employ a pilot fulltime when someone will go and work for 3 months here and there covering seasonal busy schedules.

There is also a trend to have us all working longer to retirement. Its not only ICAO raising the retirement age but also a factor of the capital markets which is forcing those of us who are fortunate enough to have a pension scheme to be stuck flying longer and longer. The way it is going I will be lucky enough to retire at 70-75. Compare that with the so called "old days" where you retired at 55. The Irish government just pushed out its retirement age to 68 I think it was the other week. Folks that is 20 more years of a guy/gal sitting in the LHS whilst you have passed command checks waiting for them to move on. Now I know for the average wannabe that time to command is probably not high on their agendas but it is certainly worth being part of your overall decision making process now, particularly if you are starting out say in your mid or late 30's.

I agree that there is a “glimmer” but from a UK/Irish perspective I would say that it will be a few years yet before we start to see some movement and it will be nothing on the scale of what it was a few years ago.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Guys, I haven't flipped from Bear to Bull you know! Far from it.

I expect house prices to decline in absolute terms by 3% over the next 12 months and 4% in the 12 months after that. Then flatline for several years in Real Terms. This March asking price figures are appalling - around 13 times down on the historical norm. A fall in house prices already being recorded in Feb - bear in mind that Easter is around the corned and thats to house sales what Dec25th is to High Street sales...

I expect BoE Base Interest Rates to rise to 6% within five years. Unemployment will not go below 2.6 million for three years. A technical recession may or may not reoccur but a quarter of negative growth will sometime in 2010/11.

Quite a few airlines are holed below the water and in serious danger of sinking. The current and future stormy conditions will force them to the bottom. Make no mistake.

Though currently I know of no unemployed pilots who had >1,000hrs jet when they lost their jobs.


Mostly I thought it would be a bit less daunting for Newbies if we didn't just spin up the multi-millon post Upturn/Downturn is Upon Us thread... :p

:cool:
WWW

[8QQHC]

I just found this on AOPA's news page.

AOPA Online: FAA forecasts dwindling student pilot numbers (http://www.aopa.org/training/articles/2010/100315forecast.html)

And yes, I know they're referring to the States, but what do people think of the supply and demand potential (less pilots V future growth)?

[Dr Eckener]

Let's not forget the oil price. It has never been blamed for the recession, although it played a major role. It has been on the rise for a while now, and I reckon on a minimum of $100 a barrel by the end of this year, first quarter of next.

[JohnnyPharm]

Let's not forget the oil price.

But remember the retirement bulge YAY :ok:

[potkettleblack]

What bulge? Maybe a lucky few might be fully funded in their pension and retire but most will now be working longer to fund their pensions facilitated by ICAO raising the retirement age.

[170to5]

think he was being sarcastic there, pot!

[RVR800]

Gross lending for home loans in the UK rose by 6% in February compared with January to an estimated £9.2bn, the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said :O

[cpt bligh]

Some depressing and sad news.

Highland Airways went into administration today. Many experienced turboprop pilots now actively seeking work.

BBC News - Highland Airways goes into administration (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/highlands_and_islands/8586688.stm)

[MaxReheat]

.......to add to the experienced turboprop (and jet) pilots who are still actively seeking work. Good luck because, by ghod, they and all of us in a similar boat need it!

[potkettleblack]

Not forgetting as well that this was an outfit that took on low timers and gave people their first step up.

[Turkish777]

March 30, 2010

By Jonathan Lynn


GENEVA (Reuters) - Airlines are climbing out of recession with further strong increases for passenger travel and freight in February, industry association IATA said on Tuesday.

One sign of recovery was record capacity usage for passenger travel in February, traditionally the weakest month for air travel, the International Air Transport Association said.

"We are moving in the right direction. In two to three months, the industry should be back to pre-recession traffic levels," said IATA Director-General Giovanni Bisignani.

Passenger demand in February was 9.5 percent higher than a year earlier, but supply increased by only 1.9 percent.

The result was a passenger load factor -- a measure of how full planes fly -- of 75.5 percent, or a February record in seasonally adjusted terms of 79.3 percent, IATA said.

Cargo demand grew 26.5 percent, said IATA, which estimates that 30 percent of world trade by value is moved by air freight, making its data an important indicator of global commerce flows and overall economic activity.

IATA said February 2009 had marked the bottom of the cycle for passenger traffic during the recession, and passenger demand would need to recover by a further 1.4 percent to return to pre-crisis levels.

Cargo traffic, which plunged much further than passenger business, as demand for goods plummeted in the crisis, must rise a further 3 percent to regain pre-crisis levels after hitting a low in December 2008, IATA said.

"This is still not a full recovery. The task ahead is to adjust to two years of lost growth," Bisignani said in a statement.

IATA, which groups about 230 airlines, including Air China, Lufthansa, British Airways, Singapore Airlines and Skywest, forecast earlier this month that airlines would lose $2.8 billion this year after losing $9.4 billion in 2009.

As usual, regional demand patterns varied, with European and North American carriers showing the weakest growth in February, while Asia-Pacific carriers saw strong increases.

Middle East airlines recorded passenger demand growth of 25.8 percent, the strongest of any region as travel markets develop in the area and local carriers compete on long-haul connections to Asia via Middle Eastern hubs, it said.

Latin American carriers saw a 41.9 percent increase in cargo demand.

*Reporting by Jonathan Lynn, editing by Will Waterman

It makes a nice change to read something positive about the industry..:ok:

[Concorde14]

Lets hope this trend continues!!

Regards

Concorde 14

[imarkd]

I've no flying experience except a few trial lessons, but I love it.
I'm about to graduate with an Aerospace Engineering degree and I have a job lined up with a very prestigious aero engine manufacturer.

Despite this I'm still a wannabe. I still want to fly aircraft for a living but I'm nervous. There may be a just glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel but who is to say that the training programmes will go back to the way they used to be?

By that I mean, I have a nasty feeling that pay-to-fly schemes are here to stay and unfortunately in the future they could be the only window into the industry for low hour pilots.

I can't see the upturn, when it comes, changing any of that.

[169west]

imarkd

I have the same nasty feeling you have about pay-to-fly. The only thing we can hope is that when the economy rises again, the pilots demand will be so high that not only who has the big bucks can join a major!

[Pilot Positive]

By that I mean, I have a nasty feeling that pay-to-fly schemes are here to stay and unfortunately in the future they could be the only window into the industry for low hour pilots.

I advise extreme caution for 3 reasons:

1. Some companies are taking on PTF but only with limited line hours. Once completed you're out, on the dole and making way for the next low houred PTF candidate. They are not a lot of good if you have 300 hours or less on type.

http://www.pprune.org/terms-endearment/409970-self-sponsored-a320-type-rating-line-training-j-curd.html

2. There are some unscrupulous operators out there exploiting wannabees through the emerging PTF culture - some of you guys are investing large sums of cash without any training or prospects of seeing your money back (let alone a job).

http://www.pprune.org/airlines-airports-routes/408838-varsity-express-gone-bust-within-1-week-merged.html

3. The overall impact on these schemes is not positive for the long term. That means the future of your industry in respect of safety and pay conditions.

http://www.pprune.org/terms-endearment/410089-p2f-cancer-aviation.html


Dont want to put you off, just want to advise caution. Sometimes its more impressive to show that you have committed to flying and the pilot community as a whole by avoiding career fast tracking and by getting some good solid experience on SEP/MEP activities. It will make you a better pilot, you'll have some fun and you will get a job based on merit rather than cash.

May the force be with you. :ok: