What happens now that the economy is starting to pick up?

[united786]

Like many people here i myself am waiting for the golden opportunity to get into training as an airline pilot. Now that the economy is slowly beginning to pick up, what happens next?

Are we still pretty much in the same situation?
Are there going to be any sponsorship schemes available?
Is the training cost going to decrease?
Are airlines going to start hiring pilots again?

[damo1089]

the economy is starting to pick up?

[Muddy Boots]

Do you really think the economy is starting to pick up with 10% unemployment in the Euro Zone???

Sorry to disapoint but don't be misled by the Daily Mail headlines that are massaging the figures to make everyone feel better about things. After all it wasn't exactly a bbq summer last year even though we were told it would be.

If you really believe the economy has rounded the bend it will be a couple of years before the prosperity trickles down to the airlines and then it will take some time after that for all the out of work high hours pilots to be soaked up.

Sorry to be glum but I'm in exactly the same position as you, the days of the airlines being so desperate for pilots that they poached the guys off of helicopters from the North Sea aren't about to come back that fast...

Muddy Boots

[BoeingMEL]

.... Muddy Boots is spot-on. At best, re-appraise the situation in 12 months..and again in 24 months. Don't hold your breath though, there's no reason at all to believe that the good ol' days will ever come back. Sponsorship? Well, maybe a little...and then there'll be the usual 200-500 applicants for each place.

Sorry to bear bad tidings but the world is a different place now.

Good luck all the same. bm.

[average bloke]

0.1% 'growth' in GDP and you reckon the economy is picking up? Don't make me laugh :D

In answer to your questions: yes, no, no, no!

[powerstall]

The economy picking up? what country?

[Blackcoffeenosugar]

Going by increased interest rates and "all time high" property prices combined with no national debt: Norway.

[EmanuelDesperados]

Norway should not be mentioned when talking about any financial crisis.

[Denti]

The economy is picking up, however from a very low level so it will take until 2011 or 2012 until we reach 2007 levels again if no major economical mishap happens once again. Of course some countries in the EU are worse off than others and some were hit a lot harder than others too. Unemployment was not in step with the financial crisis everywhere, for example unemployment rates did'nt change much at all in germany despite a total downturn of around 5% compared to 2008, they will rise now that we are expecting a growth between 1,5 and 2.5% in 2010 simply because state help is running out.

The airline i'm working for is expecting a growth of around 5% this year, however it is not yet clear which of the 5 different airlines flying under that brand will grow fastest, at the moment it looks like the swiss and austrian parts will, but that might change, however hiring has recommenced on a low level but afaik all spots are allready taken with an overabundance of very experienced crews on the market.

[veetwo]

United786

Take a long hard look at some of the terms and conditions being offered to the "lucky few" managing to get jobs at the moment. The easyjet threads running on the terms and endearment forum are a good start. Once you've done that have a real serious think about whether you want to spend around £100,000 on pilot training.

I suspect the only sensible answer at the moment is : NO!

V2

[tigermagicjohn]

It's not picking up, it is all a lie.

I run a retail business, and for December and January was considerably down from last year 2008/2009 - also other retailers saying the same.

It is a lie, a feel good factor, to try to make people spend money - but the wise they dont spend their money, because the recession will last another 6 - 7 months at least!

Norway!!!! They are so government funded that how can you call that a real economy. Refugees and unemployed make more money then hard working people in Norway!:mad:

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Look at the last quarter of 2009 and note:

1) Car scrapage scheme coming to an end in December.
2) Last quarter before 2.5% VAT increase.
3) Last quarter before stamp duty threshold reduced on property purchases.
4) Christmas

Despite all those significant incentives to bring forward major spending into that quarter they could only manage a 0.1% rise in GDP. The figures are routinely adjusted up or down by 0.1 - 0.2% as more detailed figures are processed in later months.

GDP is a crap measure anyway. If the government spends £10,000 paying a contractor to dig a hole and then another £10,000 to another contractor to fill it in again then the GDP will have grown by £20,000. Its like trying to decide if a computer is 'good' based only on the size of its hard drive.

The real kicker is M4 money supply is falling again and did so in Sep/Oct/Nov and Dec. QE is ending. IR's will rise. Taxes up. Public sector employment plunging.

We're still in this.

Airlines haven't finished going bust yet.


WWW

[Fuel Crossfeed]

I would not go out buying a big watch and pair of RayBans just yet!
From another website:

Last year was the worst in the history of aviation, IATA said yesterday. The airline industry trade body said 2009 saw the largest ever post-war decline in scheduled air traffic. Director general Giovanni Bisignani said: ‘In terms of demand, 2009 goes into the history books as the worst year the industry has ever seen. We have lost 2.5 years of growth in passenger markets.’
He said that airlines face ‘enormous challenges’ in 2010, adding: ‘The worst is behind us, but it is not time to celebrate. Adjusting to 2.5 years of lost growth means that airlines face another Spartan year focused on matching capacity carefully to demand and controlling costs.’

[ab33t]

Even if it does recover it will be awhile before the pool of qualified pilots are absorbed and the new guys can start coming through.

[UAV689]

There was a 0.1% growth in GDP last year.

That was driven by the fact that I splashed out and went large on a bigmac meal in December.

We are not in recovery yet!!

[JohnnyPharm]

The price of fuel is starting to rise again and the "green issues" are gathering momentum again a la Copenhagen. I can't see aviation ever going back to the halcion days of 2005-7.

[Luke SkyToddler]

Aviation in Europe is pretty well semi-permanently trashed, courtesy of the lo-co's and the pay-to-flys. Just about anybody that offered decent employment packages, i.e. all the legacy carriers and old-school holiday charter airlines, are still on their knees and losing money hand over fist. Mr O'Leary and Mr Haji-Ioannou are not going to take their foot off Mr Walsh's throat any time soon.

If any hiring does occur in the next couple of years, it will only be the lo-co's doing it, and you can be sure the T&C's will be as atrocious if not more so than they already are. This recession has opened their eyes to the money making potential of wannabe pilots, and now they've got a nice little revenue stream going on they are going to cling onto it for all it's worth. As soon any "traditional" airline hiring occurs, they will be swamped with many years worth of applications from the currently out-of-work experienced people, not forgetting the lo-co drivers.

Sadly the only way I can see this situation changing, is by legal mandate and/or public outcry after an overtired and underpaid skipper with a pay-to-fly joyrider in the RHS, crashes a plane, which will inevitably happen sometime ... or else if people start to see aviation for the pit of exploitation that it currently is and actually start staying away from flight training for a few years, the supply-and-demand mechanic might slowly tilt back in our favour.

The economic recovery "is" coming but it's not coming to Europe for a while. I would expect that over the next 12 to 24 months we will start to see some stiff competition between the mid east and china, to get the shrinking pool of experienced heavy jet people who are willing to travel and work in those kind of places, and 2012 to 2015 should be a time for contract captains to be absolutely making hay.

Where I sit now here in the middle east we're already seeing the kind of european pilot exodus that hasn't happened for the last 20 years, albeit it's being forced on those guys because they lost their jobs at home. There are plenty who will kick back now in the likes of Air Asia or Flydubai or Qatar or whoever's hiring now, and you can be sure they will all rush back home in 2 or 3 years when they get the chance to get their old jobs back.

I wouldn't start flight training now, but of course there are people who are going to do it anyway, all I can advise you lot is for god's sake do it on the cheap and don't borrow heavily to fund it, there are just too many unpredictables out there at the moment.

[fly_antonov]

I believe that it will be no sooner than 2013, more likely around 2020 to see a full recovery.

I got out of flight training after my ATPL theory course and will not do the rest of the training until airlines come begging to me, pay for my type-rating and offer me at least 2000 euro after tax as starting monthly salary plus sector/block hours pay.

If those conditions don' t come back, that' s too bad, I will happily do something else.

If my dream was to become a pilot, my dream wasn' t to become a slave as well.
As pilots, we' re supposed to know the boundaries between what' s reasonable and what' s madness.

I am not investing 60 000 euro plus type-rating for a potential, conditional, low-wage job. That is madness.