ethiopian airlines aircraft down near Beirut [Archive] - Page 2

repariit

16th Feb 2010, 01:58

In an effort to set expectations regarding "seeing" what is going on on MarineTraffic.com and other AIS web sites, here are a few facts:
1. AIS (Automatic Information System) is designed to be the marine equivalent of TCAS.
2. Each AIS equipped vessel broadcasts a stream of information that provides real time navigation, and identification data that other AIS equipped vessels in VHF range can receive. It allows crossing traffic to know CPA (the closest distance in a crossing course), time to a developing CPA, and the contact information of the opposing/crossing vessel. Unlike radar it works "around corners". You can see vessels behind islands that are blocked to radar. The system is intended to operate as a vessel-to-vessel operation and is a very effective navigation enhancement. It allows the skippers to contact each other via radio to resolve tight crossing situations better than could be done in the VTS (vessel traffic system) environment alone. VTS is something like ATC where a shore based radar/radio site directs traffic.
3. A spin-off benefit of this system is a series of shore stations that receive this AIS data from vessels, and send it to sites such as MarineTraffic.com which plot it on Google maps, and make it available to the world.
4. The shore receiver stations are often volunteer operations. In this case, it appears to be a HAM Radio operator who has set up the Beirut receiver,and the internet link to the web site. There may be computer, internet, and radio issues affecting the delivery of the information to web site observers. Such issues are managed by the unpaid receiver source of the information. We should all thank them for providing the data to us, and realize that they are doing so in their off time at their own expense.
5. I addition, AIS equipped vessels may not be transmitting all of the time. There are international rules requiring them to do so in certain circumstances, but it is a still developing system.

threemiles

16th Feb 2010, 04:53

I wouldn't compare AIS with TCAS as there is no commanding component in it. It is more like ADS-B out and in. Nice toy for skippers in any case.

Speed of Sound

16th Feb 2010, 08:48

Odyssey Explorer left Beirut at 07.45 this morning and is heading for the 'crash site'

Still waiting for permission to raise some of the wreckage.

SoS

repariit

16th Feb 2010, 12:32

Odyssey Explorer was 4.2 nm offshore from Naame for the first part of the day. The water depth at that location is approximately 940 feet, which is beyond the reach of divers.

They have since moved in to about 2 miles off shore near the previously searched area.

ettore

16th Feb 2010, 16:40

Crashed Ethiopian 737's missing CVR section found (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2010/02/16/338444/crashed-ethiopian-737s-missing-cvr-section-found.html)

captplaystation

16th Feb 2010, 19:21

Why exactly are the BEA being tasked with this investigation, as regards FDR/CVR ? because the wife of a French diplomat was on board ?
Just because they have the expertise?

Don't remember them coming up with a very definitive explanation for Flash Airlines and its (French) pax, seeem to remember some bollocks about flap asymmetry, which helped preserve Egyptian pride.
Hope this one is a bit clearer / and quicker . . . . how many public holidays coming up soon ? :cool:

wozzo

16th Feb 2010, 20:28

Don't remember them coming up with a very definitive explanation for Flash Airlines and its (French) pax, seeem to remember some bollocks about flap asymmetry, which helped preserve Egyptian pride.

Wrong. The investigation concluded: Spatial disorientation by PF, PNF unwilling to challenge PF, bad training. Egyptians didn't like what BEA presented.

jmmilner

16th Feb 2010, 20:38

Why exactly are the BEA being tasked with this investigation, as regards FDR/CVR ? because the wife of a French diplomat was on board ?
Just because they have the expertise? History and language would be two possible answers. After World War I the League of Nations transferred control of many territories from the losers to the winners. France was given the mandate for Syria, of which Lebanon was a part. As a result, French is still a conditional official language of Lebanon.

BoeingMEL

16th Feb 2010, 20:53

.. but, dark night and over sea - few visual cues - no mayday call - and no terrorist group claiming responsibility.... is this not a another surefire spatial disorientation case? I guess we'll know soon.

bm

Diamond Bob

16th Feb 2010, 20:59

Statements made anonymously by Lebanese airport sources report that Captain Habtamu Benti, the pilot in command (PIC) of the Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737-800 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737-800#737-800) encountered engine problems, perhaps a flame out, during takeoff, and requested permission to abort the flight and return to Beirut. He was given clearance to do so, but another aircraft, a Etihad Airlines (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Etihad_Airlines) flight from Abu Dhabi (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abu_Dhabi), United Arab Emirates (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Arab_Emirates) was in the process of landing and could have interfered with his emergency maneuvers.

Second aircraft involved in Lebanon ET409 crash (http://www.examiner.com/x-18134-AirlinesAirport-Examiner~y2010m2d16-Second-aircraft-involved-in-Lebanon-ET409-crash)

Speed of Sound

16th Feb 2010, 21:33

How does this:

"A command tower recording shows the tower told the pilot to turn to avoid the storm, but the plane went in the opposite direction," he said.

"We do not know what happened or whether it was beyond the pilot's control."

square with this?

The pilot in command encountered engine problems, perhaps a flame out, during takeoff, and requested permission to abort the flight and return to Beirut. He was given

clearance to do so.

SoS

ettore

16th Feb 2010, 22:20

It doesn't. At this stage nothing but wild speculation.

repariit

17th Feb 2010, 14:49

Odyssey Explorer has been intensely working at 33.7422N 035.4062E after briefly passing over the deep locations. The tracks shown here are all within 100 feet of this position.

Live Ships Map - AIS - Vessel Traffic and Positions (http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/)

The depth here is just 159 feet. The debris field must be tightly defined rather than widely dispersed as suggested earlier.

repariit

17th Feb 2010, 14:56

A bit of news . . . .
ET409 crash: Should the search for victims continue or stop? (http://www.yalibnan.com/2010/02/16/et409-crash-should-the-search-for-victims-continue-or-stop/)

February 16, 2010 ⋅ News Brief
Shiite Ulamas ( Muslim scholars) are likely to issue a Fatwa, or Islamic ruling, to end the search for the remaining victims of the Ethiopian plane flight ET409 that crashed into the Mediterranean Sea last Jan. 25th killing all 90 people on board.
The Ulamas, tend to believe that the “sea, in itself, is a legitimate graveyard,” and therefore, search operations can stop.
Ulamas’ viewpoint and expected fatwa are likely to gain support of political and Shiite authorities.
Sheikh Ahmed Qabalan, President of the Higher Shiite Council however, is not in favor of ending the search until all remains of victims are found
In a statement issued late Monday, Qabalan stressed” the need to recover all the bodies from the sea so that we can carry out our duty of burying the victims in the soil.”
Qabalan urged the Lebanese army and security forces to carry on efforts to pull all the remains of victims from the sea off the coast of Naameh south of Beirut.
The families of the Ethiopian Airlines plane crash victims are expected to meet with Sheikh Qabalan at 2pm on Wednesday.

N2NB9H

17th Feb 2010, 15:43

Why exactly are the BEA being tasked with this investigation, as regards FDR/CVR ? because the wife of a French diplomat was on board ?
Just because they have the expertise?

Because this is how investigations are supposed to be conducted as per the Lebanese civil aviation.

Hope this one is a bit clearer / and quicker . . . . how many public holidays coming up soon ?

Just like the BA038 which you seem to particularly appreciate?

shortfinals

17th Feb 2010, 16:16

BoeingMEL: you are not the only one asking those questions.

976 people since 2000 have lost their lives in seven mishaps that occurred over the sea at night. The details are listed here: Another one in the sea at night - Learmount (http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/learmount/2010/01/another-one-in-the-sea-at-nigh.html)

Speed of Sound

17th Feb 2010, 17:11

The debris field must be tightly defined rather than widely dispersed as suggested earlier.

If the scale on AIS is accurate, the debris field is 600' x 600' and only two miles offshore.

SoS

SeenItAll

17th Feb 2010, 17:55

Over the sea at night

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BoeingMEL: you are not the only one asking those questions.

976 people since 2000 have lost their lives in seven mishaps that occurred over the sea at night. The details are listed here: Another one in the sea at night - Learmount

If you go back a few more years, it's more than that. Remember the AeroPeru and Birgenair flights that took off at night with blocked pitots or static ports. Both lost.

repariit

17th Feb 2010, 18:09

SoS

You are correct. However the search is progressing in a NE direction as the time goes on so it may be a bigger field when its all covered.

I thought that the difference between Odyssey and Ocean Alert was deep water capabilities on the Odyssey. I hope we will hear more about what they are accomplishing. Anyone know if the International Committee previously mentioned as doing the investigation does press conferences?

snowfalcon2

17th Feb 2010, 20:36

lomapaseo

17th Feb 2010, 20:44

Anyone know if the International Committee previously mentioned as doing the investigation does press conferences?

"The memory recorder from the crashed Ethiopian plane's second black box that was recovered on Tuesday has been sent to Paris for analysis.
The daily As-Safir on Wednesday said a report signed by all members of the investigation committee would likely come out in 48 hours after having completed verbatim transcription."

It would be unique if the International Committee released the report publicly. Typically the report gets sanitized by the single Country Investigator-in-Charge who is the first to release the sanitzed version.

Regardless, it's the Lessons-Learned that count and that may be left up to others to interpret.

snowfalcon2

18th Feb 2010, 20:07

Information Minister Tareq Mitri announced Thursday that "the government will issue a comprehensive report on the disaster of the Ethiopian jet mid-next week after informing the victims' families of the content."
"The commission investigating the crash of the Ethiopian plane will hand over a preliminary report to the government within the coming few days," Mitri said after the weekly Cabinet session.

That's in fact entirely according to ICAO Annex 13 covering Accident Investigation which says preliminary findings shall be released 30 days after the crash.

ODGUY

19th Feb 2010, 14:02

Human Error behind Ethiopian Plane Crash: Preliminary Report

A preliminary report said "human error" was the cause of the deadly Ethiopian Airlines plane crash into the Mediterranean Sea last month and that the last words the pilot said to his co-pilot: "We're finished … God have mercy on us."
Flight 409 bound for Addis Ababa crashed into sea off the coast of Naameh minutes after takeoff from Beirut airport early in the morning of Jan. 25, killing all 90 people on board.
Pending the outcome of the official report, which is to be announced by the Lebanese government sometime next week, the daily As-Safir on Friday uncovered outlines of the preliminary report.

As-Safir said the investigation team probing the plane crash incident retuned to Beirut from Paris on Thursday and handed over the report to Prime Minister Saad Hariri.

The plane's two black boxes -- data flight recorder and cockpit voice recorder – were separately retrieved among the wreckage and flown to France for analysis by BEA, a French agency that specializes in assisting with technical investigations of air crashes.

As-Safir quoted a reliable source at France's Aviation Accidents Investigation bureau as saying that the cockpit voice recorder has revealed that the last words the pilot said were: "We're finished … God have mercy on us."

The pilot was speaking in Amharic, a Semitic language spoken in North Central Ethiopia.

Audio recordings revealed that the pilot asked the co-pilot to follow instructions by Beirut airport control tower, only to find out that his assistance either did not heed to the orders or did the opposite.

This prompted the pilot to take a move which made him gradually lose control of the plane, the voice recorder showed.

The report said the jet remained intact until it hit water.

Cabinet, furthermore, did not take any decision to close the file on the plane crash incident pending an official report from the Lebanese Army about the search for remains of the remaining victims.

Beirut, 19 Feb 10, 07:34
Source (http://www.naharnet.com/domino/tn/NewsDesk.nsf/getstory?openform&A71ABE86381E5708C22576CF001FD042)

wozzo

19th Feb 2010, 14:36

The plane took off on January 25 at 2:37 a.m. and hit the water at 2:40 a.m., which means that the flight lasted four minutes only. The plane suddenly rose to approximately 2,750 meters before it plunged into the sea. The descent took around 40 seconds.

The pilot gave an order to the co-pilot after the former communicated with the air-traffic controllers at Beirut’s International Rafik Hariri Airport. Data analysis revealed that the co-pilot did not carry out the order or undertook an opposite action. Believing that the co-pilot complied with the instructions, the pilot consequently lost control of the plane. Investigators concluded that human error was the main cause of the crash.

Ethiopian plane crash due to human error - Politics - iloubnan.info (http://www.iloubnan.info/politics/actualite/id/42970/lebanon/Ethiopian-plane-crash-due-to-human-error)

Edit: Please show mercy to the poor journalists, they have no idea of cockpit procedures. I think the main point here is: No bomb, no technical (engine) failure etc.

framer

20th Feb 2010, 09:15

The pilot gave an order to the co-pilot after the former communicated with the air-traffic controllers at Beirut’s International Rafik Hariri Airport. Data analysis revealed that the co-pilot did not carry out the order or undertook an opposite action. Believing that the co-pilot complied with the instructions, the pilot consequently lost control of the plane.
That doesn't really make any sense to me. Does anyone know what ' order' or 'action' they might be talking about or how that could lead to the other pilot losing control?

wes_wall

20th Feb 2010, 13:13

.......what ' order' or 'action' they might be talking about or how that could lead to the other pilot losing control

I think that is a language translation problem. We will have to wait for more information. Anything else is pure speculation and meaningless.
ww

atakacs

20th Feb 2010, 14:45

well so far it sounds pretty much as yet another case of spatial disorientation. But we are obviously way to soon to draw conclusions...

ettore

23rd Feb 2010, 20:32

ET Flight 409 Accident Update 12 - 23 February, 2010

12:30 PM - Local Time

All bodies of the victims from ET-409 accident have now been recovered and identified. Arrangement is being made to repatriate bodies of the Ethiopian and other nationals to their respective countries.

The investigation team is also continuing its task to compile a preliminary fact finding report.

However, as it stands today, there are vital information and facts missing to complete the investigation. The investigation team needs to collect these critically important information and facts to prepare the preliminary fact finding report and proceed to the analysis stage. Meanwhile, any indication of cause of the accident will remain speculative, incorrect and misleading.

Ethiopian will continue to cooperate with the investigation team to find the true cause of the accident.

Source: Ethiopian Airlines

repariit

24th Feb 2010, 12:57

A bit of a different view of things between Ethiopian and Berut:

ET409: Ethiopian Airlines defends pilot, blames sabotage (http://www.yalibnan.com/2010/02/23/et409-ethiopian-airlines-defends-pilot-blames-sabotage/)

February 23, 2010 ⋅ News Brief
A dispute raged between Ethiopian Airlines and Beirut over the reasons behind last month’s plane crash that killed all 90 people on board. The Boeing 737-800 bound for Addis Ababa crashed minutes after takeoff from Beirut airport in stormy weather on January 25.
“Reports that a pilot error was the cause of the disaster are just a guess,” said Ethiopian Airlines’ executive director.
“Investigations may take a while before the cause of the crash is determined,” he added.
He backed a statement made by Ethiopian Airlines earlier this month in which it did not rule out that “sabotage” may have caused the crash.
Middle East Airlines Chairman of the Board of Directors Mohammed Hout, meanwhile, said a “pilot error” was behind the crash.
“According to reliable information made available (about the disaster), an error by the pilot of the ill-fated Ethiopian plane was the reason that led to the fall and crash,” Hout said in remarks published Tuesday.
State Prosecutor Saeed Mirza is expected to receive a detailed account by the end of the week.
Meanwhile, Lebanese commando divers pursued efforts at retrieving the bodies of the passengers who were aboard the ill-fated Ethiopian airplane. The list of the 90 travelers who are presumed to be dead has shrunk to only three believed to be still missing. (Naharnet)

ettore

24th Feb 2010, 21:41

"Dispute raging", as above mentionned. ET-Boss Girma Wake has a point, I must say... when pointing out that politicians got no clues. :suspect:

Ethiopian Air Chief Says Reports on January Crash 'Misleading' | Africa | English (http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/africa/Ethiopian-Air-Chief-Says-Reports-on-January-Crash-Misleading--85219117.html)

lomapaseo

25th Feb 2010, 00:39

That last person to look for clarity and an explanation is a politician.

So I always look at the source behind a news report on atechnical subject before commiting it to memory

wes_wall

25th Feb 2010, 00:47

All bodies of the victims from ET-409 accident have now been recovered and identified.

Is one to now assume that the majority of the airplane has now been located? Unless I missed something, I thought the search for it was still ongoing, and that in fact, some areas were "off limits" in the search area.
ww

repariit

25th Feb 2010, 02:55

Is one to now assume that the majority of the airplane has now been located? Unless I missed something, I thought the search for it was still ongoing, and that in fact, some areas were "off limits" in the search area.
ww

I just checked on Odyssey Explorer. It is now west of the airport and about 4.5 miles north of the previous search area. Clearly it is doing something that is a continuing search activity. Let's check on them periodically.

threemiles

25th Feb 2010, 06:10

ettore

25th Feb 2010, 23:19

The Daily Star - Politics - American lawyers begin Ethiopian Airlines lawsuit (http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=112180)

The Libanese Daily Star's report tries to clarify the bodies and ongoing search issues:

Security sources told The Daily Star on Thursday that criminal laboratories had identified all 90 passengers, whose information would be sent to Prosecutor General Saeed Mirza, in order to administer relevant death certificates.

However, the Central News Agency (CNA) reported that Lebanese naval commandoes were continuing the search for bodies Thursday, scanning 22 targets located by the retrieval vessel Ocean Explorer.

repariit

26th Feb 2010, 14:27

The link that ettore has posted above describes a lawsuit that will be filed against Boeing on Monday and gives a little more insight into the current status. The two statements which ettore has quoted appear to be contradictory, but they may not be. It is possible that "all 90 SOB's have been identified by DNA" and "divers are still working to recover human remains located by Odyssey Explorer" are both true due to the fact that earlier reports indicated that bodies were found dismembered.

Odyssey Explorer remains tied up at Beirut harbor. Also, Ocean Alert, which has been working elsewhere in the Med has recently returned and is tied up there as well. It appears that all debris that they located are in depths that are accessible to divers.

Also there is this report, "Prime Minister Saad Hariri informed ministers that he would brief the families of the victims of the Ethiopian plane crash on the investigative committee’s preliminary report on the incident, Information Minister Tarek Mitri said following the Wednesday meeting of the cabinet. Public Works and Transportation Minister Ghazi Aridi proposed for ministers relevant to the investigation to prepare a detailed proposal involving financial rewards to employees who took part in rescue operations of the ill-fated Ethiopian plane.
One month after the deadly Ethiopian plane crash, the Lebanese government still awaits completion of the Technical Committee’s report as Ethiopian Airlines announced it will obtain Thursday the first part of the report that will reveal the truth behind the disaster."

grity

26th Feb 2010, 15:03

I just checked on Odyssey Explorer. It is now west of the airport and about 4.5 miles north of the previous search area. Clearly it is doing something that is a continuing search activity. Let's check on them periodically. i think Odyssey Explorer searched about 40 miles north-west the last days??? grity

pmat

1st Mar 2010, 07:55

It may look for something that broke off.

Synopsis:
ATC commands heading west
F/O uses rudder extensively (AA A300 like)
stabilizer breaks off
Cpt takes over and tries to recover
Gives up, there fore final comments

Just wild speculation

Nothing need break off on the B737-800. Aileron inputs alone can cause a seriously undersired attitude.

badgerh

1st Mar 2010, 08:38

The (non government) Ethiopian Sunday paper Capital had a damniing article yesterday. A summary can be found here: Lebanese officials hiding evidence from ET-409 probe (http://tinyurl.com/yzbt5nm)

The full article had some claims that the Lebanese know that sabotage took place including a claim that the Lebanese health minister accidentally said durig a press conference "The plane exploded during flight and the cabin, as well as the bodies of those on board, were dispersed in the sea, in diffferent locations".

They make a number of other claims including one that the CVR was "missing the chip that carried the actual data." Lebanese authorities said that "When the chip was said to be retrieved later, some of it was damaged. ... some parts of the chip are damaged and there is no finding out what was said between the pilots and control tower in minutes found in the part now found scraped off".

I cannot imagine what they meant to say but this sounds very far fetched. Lots of other claims - I will try to scan and post the whole article later today and also look in other papers for coroborating information.

Andrew

threemiles

1st Mar 2010, 09:50

there is no finding out what was said between the pilots and control tower in minutes found in the part now found scraped off

That is recorded on ATC tapes anyhow

wozzo

1st Mar 2010, 12:38

The (non government) Ethiopian Sunday paper Capital had a damniing article yesterday.

Since the "pilots' error"-leak from Lebanon press last week there has been a barrage of such statements and articles from Ethopian government, Ethopian Airlines and press in Ethiopia. Both sides (Ethopia/Lebanon) seem to be now in "blame the other side"-mode, motivated by prestige and/or desire to avoid carrying financial responsibilities for the crash.

I guess any reliable information will have to come from the interim report. All in all, apart from its dumb health minister, the Lebanon side seems to act more properly to me.

sisayb

1st Mar 2010, 16:53

Wozzo,

What makes you think the health minister is dumb?

wozzo

1st Mar 2010, 17:19

What makes you think the health minister is dumb?

He stated in a press conference, that the fact that severed extremities from casualties were retrieved (sorry for the graphic image) leads to the conclusion, that the airplane exploded in the air, which is wrong. The forces of an impact of an intact fuselage can have the same effect.

Much of the speculation/reports of bombs etc. is based on this statement, along with what "eye witnesses" perceived to have seen.

I didn't want to insult anyone, "dumb" wasn't the best choice. "Incompetent" was I was looking for, in the sense: Not his area of expertise and therefore not his call.

wozzo

1st Mar 2010, 17:37

An interesting snippet from Independent Beirut correspondent Robert Fisk:

And what did the Odyssey Explorer find? First of all, it found another aircraft at the bottom of the sea – not the Ethiopian plane. I think it was probably the hull of the Hungarian Malev aircraft accidentally hit by a shell in 1975 at the start of the civil war. No one survived. Robert Fisk’s World: Scenes from a busy Beirut correspondent's notebook - Robert Fisk, Commentators - The Independent (http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/robert-fiskrsquos-world-scenes-from-a-busy-beirut-correspondents-notebook-1912368.html)

Note: As far as I have seen on the web, the reason for the crash of Malev flight 240 is officially still unknown. And Fisk doesn't imply, that the real plane wasn't found subsequently.

ettore

1st Mar 2010, 21:37

No (more) comment.

Ethiopian Schedules Deceased Crew for Duty (http://addisfortune.com/Ethiopian%20Schedules%20Deceased%20Crew%20for%20Duty.htm)

ettore

1st Mar 2010, 21:55

Food for thoughts. And for U.S. lawyers :

“The loss of control in flight is nearly always initiated by a mechanical failure of the aircraft … pilot error is not the primary cause in those kind of crashes. This crash is a loss of control in flight,” said Vermij, who has over 30 years experience in investigating air disasters.

He added that the evidence so far obtained on the flight was “not in line with any type of pilot error that I have experienced.”

Vermij also questioned the veracity of some reports on the discovery of flight recorders which has suggested memory units were located separately to the rest of the black boxes.

“I know that with this particular crash it was reported that the memory unit had separated from the black box and I have never encountered any such situation,” he said.

Source: The Daily Star - Lebanon News - Air crash victims likely knew of impending deaths (http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=1&article_id=112246)

wozzo

1st Mar 2010, 22:07

Source: The Daily Star - Lebanon News - Air crash victims likely knew of impending deaths (http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=1&article_id=112246)

Not quite an independent expert, is he?

... aviation expert Max Vermij told reporters Monday in a news conference with US legal firm Ribbeck Law.
(...)
Chicago-based Ribbeck Law has begun multi-million dollar proceedings against plane manufacturer Boeing on behalf of the relatives of flight ET409 victims. Each family member can commence litigation procedures with a view of compensation, according to Ribbeck’s Attorney at Law Manuel von Ribbeck.
Ribbeck added that the results of official investigations were not relevant in establishing liability for the crash.

“Our investigation can be done in a much shorter time [than the official investigation] provided we are given the information we need. Official investigators are not relevant. The judge decides what went wrong based on the testimonies from the victims’ families and the testimonies of the defendants.”

ettore

1st Mar 2010, 22:19

Not really... :=

And he claims a very broad field of expertise :confused: :

Accident Cause Analysis Inc. provides independent investigation consulting services relating to complete or detail analysis and reconstruction of accidents, incidents and fires involving everything from:

° major commercial airliners to small private aircraft

° large floating oil rigs to private fishing boats

° 32 wheel trucks to private automobiles

° industrial buildings to simple pieces of equipment

Impressive C.V. anyway :8 :

Accident Cause Analysis Inc. - MAX VERMIJ CV (http://www.accidentcauseanalysis.com/CV_PAGE.HTM)

lomapaseo

2nd Mar 2010, 02:49

pre-crash terror :confused:

Is this additive? because I experience this every time I feel a lurch or plunge in the air. I wish for the day that I get killed because my heirs will be rich and so will the lawyers and the world will be happier.

Swiss Cheese

2nd Mar 2010, 14:12

If you check the threads of any Boeing air crash in the past 5 years, you will spot the same US lawyers and their "expert" - saying the same old thing to grieving families - join with us and sue Boeing in Chicago....

I was contacted by a family from this tragedy today. They were aghast and upset that US lawyers were parading around Beirut urging legal action in the US, and that they had been called 15 times on the phone and in person by agents for the US lawyers urging them to attend "briefing sessions".

The truth is that no lawsuit has actually been filed in Chicago. The further truth is that it is very unlikely that any US Court will hear this particular case, even if there is damning evidence of a product defect (which to date there is not). The other truth is that these Particular US lawyers generally get other US lawyers to do their cases for them....

Draw your own conclusions....

ettore

2nd Mar 2010, 21:52

Dear Emmentaler,
For the little I know of the U.S. judicial system, I would be ready to believe you blindly. But you are not bringing a single piece of evidence for your allegation. Please, elaborate and let us know what precedents you are referring to.
As far as I know, filing a complaint with some reasonable hope to be successful in court requires quite some time and steady work to dig into the case. My guess is that if a lawsuit is now being prepared, the corresponding complaint will be timely filed.
Cheers Swiss Cheese,
Ettore

wozzo

3rd Mar 2010, 19:59

On Tuesday, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri and others met families of the victims. Some interesting points:
A report was handed over, "that answers all the questions raised by media in the wake of the accident"
In a press conference afterwards Information Minister Tarek Mitri declined to address the leaks about cause of accident directly. "Asked about rumors attributing the plane crash to a pilot error, Mitri said that this issue required clarification".
"When asked for reasons that search parties spent 14 days looking in a location that turned out to be far away from the crash area, Mitri attributed this to the fact that search teams were distracted by signals they erroneously thought had come from the black box"The Daily Star - Politics - Hariri promises to defend families of air crash victims (http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=112311)

ettore

4th Mar 2010, 21:48

The information minister Tarek Mitri told the press that the airplane was intact when it hit the water and exploded at impact, referring to an inquiry led by the Libanese army. He stated that the fireball seen by witnesses above the sea was a reflection of the explosion at the surface.

« L'enquête de l'armée confirme que l'avion s'est désintégré au contact de l'eau. L'impact était tel qu'il y a eu explosion. Ce qu'on a vu en haut, c'était le reflet », a expliqué le ministre en référence à des propos de témoins qui avaient affirmé avoir vu « une boule de feu » plonger en mer.

Source: L'Orient-Le Jour | Politique Liban | Crash de l?Ethiopian Airlines*: l?enquête peut encore prendre des semaines (http://www.lorientlejour.com/category/Liban/article/649111/Crash_de_l%27Ethiopian_Airlines+:__l%27enquete_peut_encore_p rendre__des_semaines.html)

wozzo

4th Mar 2010, 23:12

He also said that there are no plausible hints for any kind of sabotage ("nous n'avons encore aucune indication rendant cette hypothèse plausible") - sending a message there to the Ethiopians, who would very like not exclude such a possibility.

And they have a preliminary report, which they will not publish for "legal" reasons. Only the final report will be published, which could take "weeks" ("peut prendre des semaines").

Given the conflict with Ethiopian Airlines & Government, I fear these "weeks" could take a while.

Crash d'Ethiopian au Liban: l'enquête peut encore prendre des semaines - Politique - iloubnan.info (http://www.iloubnan.info/politique/actualite/id/43377/lebanon/Crash-d%27Ethiopian-au-Liban:-l%27enqu%C3%AAte-peut-encore-prendre-des-semaines)

wes_wall

5th Mar 2010, 18:58

Given the conflict with Ethiopian Airlines & Government, I fear these "weeks" could take a while.

Like years. Meanwhile......
ww

ettore

5th Mar 2010, 22:27

in the somehow similar and highly controversial case of Flash Airlines flight 604, it took a little bit more than two years to get a... highly controversial "final" report from the Egyptian government. :ugh:

It took three more years to have an intermediary report from an independant investigation committee handed out to a French court, which had ordered it. That report lead to quite different conclusions. Which hasn't eased the controversy. :ugh::ugh::ugh:

maDJam

6th Mar 2010, 10:25

A friend of mine lost her brother on the flight- he was headed back to work in Angola. They held the funeral last week but it wasn't anything standard.

For starters in the first few days after the crash they took blood samples from the family so they can later identify the "body parts" through DNA. About 3 weeks after the accident the authorities claimed to have already identified all the passengers' remains.

None of my friend's family saw anything- the hospital just informed them that they found him. It took another week for the authorities to release him, but no one was allowed to open the coffins or see what was inside. They escorted the coffin with about a dozen internal security guards ensuring that no one gets close to the coffin until it was at the cemetery.

At the funeral itself there were even more police/security officials & even a firetruck with water cannons (to disperse the crowd in case someone did get too close) making sure the coffin wasn't tampered with until it was in the ground.

Rumors have it that the government didn't really find much of the body parts, and even another passenger who's body was found in the few days after the crash "shrunk" :mad:to 25% as if they were dividing the body parts and distributing them amongst the families just to give them all closure.

Some other rumors even said the coffins could've been empty.

there's no source for my story as I was an eye witness to the whole process last Friday from the hospital ambulance being escorted by 5 police cars & 3 4x4s through the frantic scenes at the funeral itself...

Lots of screaming, crying, shouting... especially from the widow- good thing u weren't there-

why so much security? what was really in those coffins?

The controversy continues...

ettore

6th Mar 2010, 13:36

Thanks, ecto, for the very instructive interview you ran with that British Lawyer and for posting the link.

lomapaseo

6th Mar 2010, 15:22

Ectophile

Well your advice is solid:ok:

but will it be followed? The solictations from the lawyers is to gain an upperhand for themselves should any discovery be made.

Personally I wouldn't go to a lawyer based on this solicitation, but then I believe in what you said in the article.

jcjeant

6th Mar 2010, 16:56

Hi,

but no one was allowed to open the coffins or see what was inside.

Sorry but I don't buy it .....
The familly have the right to check what is in ... or if they are denied (by wich law ???) you can assume the Lebanon regime is a dictature.

ettore

7th Mar 2010, 16:44

"Ethiopian to hire consulting firm on data recording machines" says the Adis Abeba based "Reporter". But, frankly, I don't see how a third party with no mandate from the authorities could get access to the CVR := Is there any known precedent ? :confused: I'd bet it's again pure propaganda... :ugh:

The Reporter - English Version - Ethiopian to hire consulting firm on data recording machines (http://en.ethiopianreporter.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2345&Itemid=26)

wozzo

7th Mar 2010, 18:15

But, frankly, I don't see how a third party with no mandate from the authorities could get access to the CVR (...) I'd bet it's again pure propaganda...

Ethiopian Airlines sent a team of 16 (I think) to Lebanon to "assist" the investigation. They didn't feel well treated there, according to their complaints, which they freely vented to the local (Ethiopian) press: No access to Lebanese victims, no access to the wreck (?) etc. They were played a portion of the CVR, apparently 2 minutes, and the story is now spun into "CVR recordings were tampered with".

Obviously, Ethiopia feels Lebanese authorities were too quick to free themselves of blame (no sabotage, the pilots didn't follow ATC instructions, and then the pilots' error press leaks). The international good standing of EA is a matter of great pride in the country. I wished, Lebanon would go ahead with publishing the report & CVR and FDR data and give simultaneously EA direct access to all the evidence. That way, the investigation would go "on the record" and the Ethiopians can have their own inquiry.

jcjeant

8th Mar 2010, 02:57

Hi,

I wished, Lebanon would go ahead with publishing the report & CVR and FDR data and give simultaneously EA direct access to all the evidence. That way, the investigation would go "on the record" and the Ethiopians can have their own inquiry.This let me wonder why the ICAO still in place.
This office .. all their "laws" .. seem's meaningless (Lebanon and Ethiopia are members of the ICAO )

lomapaseo

8th Mar 2010, 05:45

This let me wonder why the ICAO still in place.
This office .. all their "laws" .. seem's meaningless (Lebanon and Ethiopia are members of the ICAO )

They are not laws. they're guidlines and the only expectation is that the signatory states will specified what exceptions they intend to take.

jcjeant

8th Mar 2010, 14:45

Hi,

They are not laws.Hence the "laws" in my post.
BTW .. in the case of exchange of informations about a accident this must be a law and not simply guidelines or recommandations.
How does a participant survey can work peacefully and with efficacity if they don't receive any evidence that the other(s) has ?
Is this the way to investigate the causes of an accident and thus have opportunities to increase security?
I think it's a mistake to allow (for the abscence of laws) competition or animosity among the different parties involved in an investigation.

lomapaseo

8th Mar 2010, 15:19

I think it's a mistake to allow (for the abscence of laws) competition or animosity among the different parties involved in an investigation

Sounds just like the UN. All smiles and good cheer during the cofee/tea breaks, after that a whole different world.

jmmilner

8th Mar 2010, 17:33

I have always been impressed by the general tone of this forum in that contributors in the main go where the facts lead them. This makes good sense as both those up front and SLF like myself have a strong interest in learning from accidents so as not to repeat them. Sadly the notion that an objective truth even exists is rare these days, especially when financial issues and national pride are involved. In a case like this one, it may be that what comes out on PPRuNe is as close as we will ever get to understanding what happened.

lomapaseo

8th Mar 2010, 18:15

wes_wall

13th Mar 2010, 23:54

DozyWannabe

14th Mar 2010, 01:36

jmmilner:
Sadly the notion that an objective truth even exists is rare these days, especially when financial issues and national pride are involved.
I wouldn't go that far - I think it's a far more fundamental truism, not restricted to the world of aviation, that while objective truth does exist it pertains only to hard facts backed up with indisputable evidence. The conclusions one draws from those facts are by their very nature subjective and in many cases can differ wildly.

ettore

15th Mar 2010, 01:07

Has anything of substance been released in recent days. You would think that the "teams" representing various parties would release information, particular if it shed light in the direction they were seeking.

Not much, but that excerpt of the Odyssey Marine Exploration 2009 financial year results' press release. It's not clear to me if the search operations mentionned at the end of the text, expected to resume this month, are referring to the "original project" prior to the crash ("a deep ocean project"), or to the "more complex technical documentation of the site" of the crash.

On January 25, 2010, Ethiopian Airlines Flight ET 409 crashed into the Mediterranean Sea shortly after take-off from Beirut International Airport in Lebanon. Our search vessel, Ocean Alert, was operating near the area and had been using the Beirut port for fuel and supplies during these operations. In the weeks prior to the ET409 crash, Odyssey management had been negotiating an agreement with the Government of Lebanon to partner in a deep-ocean project so Lebanese officials were familiar with the capabilities of Odyssey and the Ocean Alert.

When ET 409 crashed, Lebanese authorities contacted Odyssey and asked the company to assist in the search and recovery efforts. The Alert returned to Beirut and was integrated into search operations that included the Lebanese Navy and Army, the US Navy (USS Ramage) and a German Navy ship, the Laboe.

Before the plane wreckage was discovered, the Government of Lebanon asked Odyssey to provide additional capabilities for more complex technical documentation of the site. Odyssey sent the Odyssey Explorer, which was based in the UK, on the approximate two-week transit to Lebanon to assist. We have tentatively agreed to a payment schedule for services provided which included vessels, management, and shore support. We may also furnish additional services to map the site and recover other parts of the aircraft wreckage if contracted to do so.

Odyssey is continuing negotiations with the Lebanese government for the original project. All operations on this project will be conducted in close coordination with the Government of Lebanon and will include official government observers on board Odyssey vessels. Search operations for this project are expected to commence in March 2010.

Source: Odyssey Marine Exploration Announces 2009 Financial Results (http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/globenewswire/186238.htm)

ettore

15th Mar 2010, 01:25

A lawyer, different from the others, talking on Voice of America about being cautious with "gross speculation" :E

VOA News - Lawyer cautions about Ethiopian Airlines crash reports (http://www.voanews.com/horn/Lawyer-cautions-Lebanon-about-Ethiopian-Airlines-crash-reports.cfm)

JLWSanDiego

27th Mar 2010, 14:56

Has anyone heard anything on this recovery effort lately?

Diversification

27th Mar 2010, 16:55

Odyssey Explorer is about at 34.3646N/34.7278E and moving at about 0.2 knots in 190 deg direction.
Use this link to get near real-time info from the onboard AIS system:
Live Ships Map - AIS - Vessel Traffic and Positions (http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?level0=100#)
The Beirut station is currently offline, meaning no new data from the area near Beirut.

ettore

7th Apr 2010, 21:03

Nothing new on what happened, but a fairly good round-up on the would-be legal battlefield...

Three Groups of Lawyers to Sue Boeing over ET409 (http://addisfortune.com/Three%20Groups%20of%20Lawyers%20to%20Sue%20Boeing%20over%20E T409.htm)

Gulfstreamaviator

11th Apr 2010, 07:15

in Beirut is still a BOMB.....

glf

ettore

17th Apr 2010, 23:59

The Beyrouth Station of MarineTraffic.com is up again. It shows Odyssey Explorer moored on April 17th., while Ocean Alert has been out to sea off the coast of Northern Lebanon, on a mission most probably not related to ET409, the crash site being South of Beyrouth, off Khalde.

Any news, anyone ? :confused:

wes_wall

24th Apr 2010, 17:26

The clock continues to turn with apparently no further info. Have all search efforts been discontinued, and has any info been released relative to the recorders? We get very little in updates in the US.
Thanks for any response.

wozzo

24th Apr 2010, 21:13

Have all search efforts been discontinued, and has any info been released relative to the recorders?

Search efforts: As far as I remember, the Lebanon gouvernment has declared, that they will stop any salvage efforts unless EA insists on (and probably pay for) it. It seems, nothing is happening, also re the publication of the findings. Media have lost interest completely.

maDJam

25th Apr 2010, 18:47

There hasn't been a story or update on the Ethiopian plane here in Beirut for over a month now.

The only thing I heard from that friend of mine that lost her brother on the flight was a group of American lawyers met her family & signed a contract for a lawsuit to be filed in Chicago against Boeing. If they succeed the lawyers will take 30% of the compensation.

Instead they opted for the $25,000 compensation package from the Lebanese Government. Not much considering the deceased has a wife with 3 kids and no more income from his job Angola...

And that's the update from Lebanon for now-

Newforest2

25th Apr 2010, 20:33

The Odyssey Explorer is almost halfway to Cyprus which would seem to suggest she is not now working on ET409.

ettore

26th Apr 2010, 21:41

MadJam,
Thanks for your post from Beirut. Is there any pressure from the relatives of the victims on the local authorities to get more information on the chain of events that lead to the crash ? Sorry, if my question sounds utterly naive...
Ettore

maDJam

28th Apr 2010, 08:46

Hey ettore-

We've become immune to finding out details of who was responsible for most big issues here in Lebanon. Never found out who killed a lot of politicians over the years for example...:mad:

It's not justice or more details of the crash the families r looking for, just compensation now- since justice wont bring their loved ones back. Of the five stages of grief (denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance) they've already reached the end...:rolleyes:

The Lebanese government had paid a lot of $$ (that they barely have) on the salvation of the passengers, and relations with Ethiopia have weakened as a result of all the accusations ministers made against the pilot- so I doubt they'd wanna salvage the rest of the plane... they would've done it by now.

On another superstitious note some beach-goers say they wanna stay out of the water in that area this summer as it's still full of "spirits" :D

ettore

28th Apr 2010, 23:18

Thanks, MadJam.

Apparently, lawyers are at work for single cases only (a Google translation):
Pas d'action collective des familles des victimes (http://translate.google.ch/translate?js=y&prev=_t&hl=de&ie=UTF-8&layout=1&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.iloubnan.info%2Fpolitique%2Finterview%2Fi d%2F45271%2Fliban%2FCrash-de-l-avion-d-Ethiopian-Airlines-%3A-%2522Pas-d-action-collective-des-familles-des-victimes%25E2%2580%25A6-et-une-affaire-de-longue-haleine%2522%2C-selon-l-avocat-Joseph-Nasrallah&sl=fr&tl=en)

maDJam

5th May 2010, 12:40

They're still on about the Pilot-

Lebanon news - NOW Lebanon -Report points at pilot error in Ethiopian jet crash (http://nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=166033)

Report points at pilot error in Ethiopian jet crash
May 5, 2010

A preliminary report on the crash of an Ethiopian airliner in Lebanon in which all 90 people on board died earlier this year clearly points to pilot error, according to a source close to the probe.

"The accident was due to a series of errors on the part of the pilots who failed to take into account the signals emitted by the plane's instruments," the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told AFP.

"The report indicates that the plane was in good condition and points to error on the part of the pilot and co-pilot, both of whom had little experience with the jet," the source added.

The pilots erroneously believed that the jet was on automatic pilot and as a result failed to heed the alarm signals as the plane veered off course before crashing, he added.

Lebanese officials have previously said that data recovered from the plane's black box showed all instruments were working well until it plunged into the Mediterranean in a fierce storm.

The preliminary report, which has not been made public, indicates that both the pilot's and co-pilot's inexperience with the jet was "certainly behind the accident", the source said.

The pilot had one month of experience with the Boeing 737-800 and his co-pilot had four months experience, he added.

The probe into the crash is being led by the Bureau d'Enquetes et d'Analyses (BEA), France's accident investigation agency.

johan_jnb

5th May 2010, 15:25

sounds too much like to KQ report/analysis

wozzo

5th May 2010, 17:31

According to a French version of the article, the captain asked the co-pilot (no mention who was PF and PM) to switch on the autopilot, which the co-pilot didn't do. Apparently the captain then seemed to act like AP was on while neither did notice that the AP indicator light was off.

Le Figaro - Flash Actu : Ethiopian/accident: erreur de pilotage (http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2010/05/05/97001-20100505FILWWW00452-ethiopianaccident-erreur-de-pilotage.php)

assymetric

5th May 2010, 18:50

This is sounds very similar to the Kenyan Airlines crash. If my memory serves me correct the autopilot on the NG cannot be engaged while force is being exerted on the control column.
Possible senario: PF calls for A/P, PNF reaches over press a/p, p/f sees this confirms a/p whilst hand flying and without checking FMA (a/p has not engaged). PF let's go of controls.

Sound far fetched?

Seen it happen more than once.

Assy

threemiles

6th May 2010, 05:42

One could assume that the 3-years delay in presentation of the Kenya accident report (albeit there is no clear recommendation with regard to training, technical changes etc. in there) was a contributing factor in this accident. What a shame. Trying to save a few faces led to 90 losses of live.

PLovett

6th May 2010, 07:57

threemiles, I doubt whether the delay in releasing the report into the Kenya Airlines crash would have had any effect on the Ethiopian crash. It would appear that loss of spatial awareness is becoming all too frequent these days. :uhoh:

You could argue that the release of the Flash Airlines crash report has had no effect on the training of the Kenyan Airlines or Ethiopian Airlines crews or the Gulf Air crash, or the Adam Air crash. :ugh:

Crews are not been properly trained to hand fly these aircraft; they are overly reliant on automation; they cannot even properly engage the autopilot or check whether it has engaged. Basic stuff that is the bed rock of aviation safety is being neglected and the cost is mounting. :mad:

Norman Stanley Fletcher

6th May 2010, 08:27

The accident report makes chilling reading for any professional pilot who could envisage the situation inside the cockpit. As a slight aside, I am not quite certain how a 'broken' 737 with an inbuilt tendency to bank right was not sent straight back to the factory and exchanged for one that worked. Nonetheless, that was merely a factor in this tragic accident.

It is glaringly obvious that this Captain should never had held a command in any airline. The frightening combination of being over-bearing and unwilling to embrace SOPs is a recipe for disaster - and surprisingly enough that is what happened. This is the absolute worst of third world aviation on display and there can be no excuses. You have an unfit aircraft that would never be accepted in the west coupled to crew who take off without a clearance (an offence that would result in disciplinary action up to and including dismissal in any western airline). Combine this with utter professional incompetence from both pilots, particularly the captain and there is only one result. In fairness to the FO, it seems apparent he was trying to recover the situation at the end.

As an aside, when I first started flying and was a very junior FO on turboprops, I had to take control in a go-around from a similar-sounding captain. I found the experience absolutely terrifying at the time and it took me completely by surprise. We came very near to a crash and the captain, who is now retired, was someone who should never have been given a command at any time due to an inate lack of ability and an unwillingness to embrace SOPs. All of us are capable of being disoriented, and probably most of us have had it at one stage or other. What we must have is a cockpit atmosphere whereby the FO can pipe up to warn us of imminent disaster. That one issue is something that repeatedly turns out to be a factor in the overwhelming majority of non-western accidents. Until that cultural issue is addressed correctly, there will continue to be a huge difference in safety records between the west and the rest.

threemiles

6th May 2010, 11:00

@Plovett

I agree with your doubts, but still lessons learnt from other's mistake are the easiest way to avoid them to be repeated. If only they are properly communicated. Also true for Gulfair and armavia A320s.

Just frustrating.

ettore

6th May 2010, 22:00

NSF,
You're refering to "the accident report" and to details such as "a 'broken' 737 with an inbuilt tendency to bank right", just as if you had seen, read or hold a copy of this report. Sorry, I might have missed something, but as far as I know, that report has not been made public. Do you have any special insight or am I getting that old ? :uhoh:
Ettore

wozzo

6th May 2010, 23:44

Ettore,

NSF refers to the Kenyan Airlines crash report.

ettore

7th May 2010, 20:55

Thanks Wozzo, sorry NSF. I missed that one. I'm definitely getting older... :sad:

ettore

9th May 2010, 22:16

Here it goes again...

Lebanon withholds Ethiopian airlines plane crash report | Ethiopian News - Ethiopian Breaking news and Latest News (http://www.ethiopian-news.com/lebanon-withholds-ethiopian-airlines-plane-crash-report/)

ettore

14th May 2010, 22:36

According to the Odyssey Marine Exploration Q1 Financial Results, released on May 10th...

...The next phase of aircraft recovery work for the insurance underwriter is expected to begin in the near future.

The aircraft search project already brought the company an increase of US$ 1,3 million in revenue, it says further.

Let's hope that a dog fight amongst underwriters will bring more facts to light than politics. :E

Source: Odyssey Marine Exploration Reports Improved First Quarter Financial Performance - MarketWatch (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/odyssey-marine-exploration-reports-improved-first-quarter-financial-performance-2010-05-10?reflink=MW_news_stmp)

UNCTUOUS

15th May 2010, 01:25

Very very similar to the Kenyan Airlines crash. The autopilot on the 737NG cannot be engaged while force is being exerted on the control column.
Possible scenario: PF calls for A/P, PNF reaches over nd presses a/p engage button, p/f sees this to be a confirmation that he's now on a/p whilst hand flying and without checking FMA (a/p has not engaged). PF lets go of the controls. Pilots then get busy with something else and aren't monitoring the attitude UNTIL g forces alert them to the developing Unusual Attitude. It's then too late.
.
"TOO LATE? Why?" Pilots looking up under increasing "g" and seeing an extreme attitude, find it hard to register what they are seeing and frequently roll the wrong way in their panic-stricken recovery attempt, consolidating their fate. Scenario happens more often than you hear about and only the fatalities make it to the front pages.
.
SOLUTION?

As mentioned by me many times before, the killer in this recurrent accident scenario (Flash Airlines, KQ507 etc) is the A/P push button. If you replaced it with the old style paddle-switch, it would not solenoid engage under g while banked and would just flop back to central without that satisfying tactile click of fully-deflected engagement/retention. Your alert of a failure to engage would then not only be the switch not remaining latched forward (flops back to central upright), it would also be a flashing glareshield alert light just below your forward line-of-sight (not hidden away on the FMA amongst a bunch of other annunciators).
.
Until Boeing fixes this it will continue to kill pax in their hundreds.

PLovett

15th May 2010, 12:54

UNCTUOUS, with respect, rubbish. The problem is more deep seated than whether there is a button or a switch to engage the autopilot.

The switch tells you by lighting up whether it is engaged. The PFD tells you whether it is engaged (and in both the Ethiopian and Kenyan airlines cases that is what the PF SHOULD have been looking at).

The problem is that crews cannot hand fly on instruments. Period.

It is time ICAO, the insurance companies and airlines recognised this and started to do something about the problem because it is killing too many too often.

Tee Emm

16th May 2010, 12:19

Until Boeing fixes this it will continue to kill pax in their hundreds.You can't blame Boeing when dangerously incompetent individuals get promoted to the left seat. It has nothing to do with any manufacturer. The 737 was thoroughly tested by experienced test pilots to a degree you would hardly believe. Nothing wrong with the autopilot engaged buttons - it is the idiots that push them. The degree of pilot incompetency is downright alarming in many third world airlines but political correctness rules OK? and that means the real truth never gets out to the aviation media. There is SFA the manufacturers can doing anything about this once the aircraft are delivered to the new owners. Same with cars and motor bikes.

The time is well overdue for regulators and operators to take a critical look at each individual up front. Religious mores and associated cultural blind belief act often in direct opposition to flight safety principles.

411A

16th May 2010, 15:17

You can't blame Boeing when dangerously incompetent individuals get promoted to the left seat. It has nothing to do with any manufacturer. The 737 was thoroughly tested by experienced test pilots to a degree you would hardly believe. Nothing wrong with the autopilot engaged buttons - it is the idiots that push them. The degree of pilot incompetency is downright alarming in many third world airlines but political correctness rules OK? and that means the real truth never gets out to the aviation media. There is SFA the manufacturers can doing anything about this once the aircraft are delivered to the new owners.

Couldn't agree more.
It would appear that basic flying skills have truly gone out the window with many of the younger set, to be replaced with 'slaves to the magenta line' and total automatics.
How very sad.

filejw

16th May 2010, 15:41

Plovett...I disagree a bit here, unless you have flown with these individuals that's pretty blanket statement. To me its more of a complacency issues, IE A/P on with poor procedures to back it up and then the pilots in both these cases went on to other things they were more concerned about, the TRW's....And this leads to an upset from there was no recovery.

Romeo E.T.

16th May 2010, 19:30

I fully agree with the statements regarding the paddle autopilot selector,

when in hard thunderstorm weather and heading out into pitch black darkness, the over-riding urge to get the autopilot engaged as soon as possible and go heads down to plot and plan around the severe weather is overwhelming, now with the old paddle autopilot selector it is very obvious to the pilot flying, under severe pressure to get it engaged, as to who is actually still flying the aircraft ie PF or "george" and until the autopilot paddle has latched magnetically. the PF would defenitely not loose control over the attitude of the aircraft as he is still in "command" of attitude/heading/speed etc,

with the newer autopilot selector the engagement is far to subtle, and in the "heat" of the moment of needing to get heads down and onto the radar etc it seems to have been shown on more than 2 occasions that the autopilot engagement was never accomplished, whislt the crew urgently diverted their attention to the task at hand of plot and plan around severe weather, thinking the autopilot was engaged.

it is all fine and well to talk of SOP's regarding the calls and the monitoring function around autopilot engagement sequence, but when faced with severe weather just after take-off, the crews mind is more focussed on avoiding weather safely, than being concerned if "all the i's have been dotted and t's been crossed" w.r.t. SOP.....and in these scenarios a tactile autopilot paddle engagement will defenitley relieve the pilot flying with rest assuredness that the autopilot is now in charge.....and even the Pilot non flying can see this due to paddle being held up and engaged.....no need to create a whole "broadway play of calls" to confirm autopilot engagement, and thus ...with respect Mr Boeing....the older system was beter.

Willie Everlearn

20th May 2010, 00:47

UNCTUOUS

I for one, find your post insightful and totally agree with you. I think you've hit the nail on the head with this one.

Looking at what is known, I'd say your postulation is spot on.

Try as we might to preach FMA awareness, a certain number of pilots out there refuse to read aloud or confirm their FMA. No matter what paddle, switch or push button you have to engage an autopilot, the button pushing is fiction BUT the FMA is FACT.

Could there be a better ergodynamic design? Probably.
Until A and B come up with that better design we better continue to teach FMA, FMA, FMA.

good on ya

Willie :ok:

Kwisatz Haderach

20th May 2010, 20:54

VOA: British intelligence agents reopened their investigation into the crash in March after reports that a terrorist suspect arrested in Saudi Arabia said Flight 409 had been destroyed by a bomb. The suspect said the device was similar to the one nearly used by Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab on Northwest Airlines Flight 253. Ethiopian Airlines said it was "interested" in the report.

wozzo

20th May 2010, 21:29

Setting type in alarming bold doesn't make that piece of fake news credible.

Jump back to your planet and enjoy some spice, Kwisatz.

Willie Everlearn

21st May 2010, 02:31

My word. :confused: That's shocking news. :eek:

However, it appears that the loss of control did more damage to this aircraft than any bomb. :rolleyes:

Hmmmm..... :ugh:

Jetjock330

21st May 2010, 04:34

Willie Everlearn,
Try as we might to preach FMA awareness, a certain number of pilots out there refuse to read aloud or confirm their FMA. No matter what paddle, switch or push button you have to engage an autopilot, the button pushing is fiction BUT the FMA is FACT.So true!

We were taught 11 years back on A340/A330 training about "rumors and news". Rumor was the FCU selection and the News was the FMA. This best describes what Willie Everlearn is getting at! Nothing like setting a new altitude in the FCU and forgetting to pull or push, but FMA will tell you where you stand with your recent FCU request/rumor!

MD83FO

21st May 2010, 07:40

humans will continue to make mistakes, that's why they are being removed from the controls slowly but surely.
i.e. bank angle and pitch protection on the airbus.

Denti

21st May 2010, 07:55

Humans do make mistakes, but to remove them from the controls in the airbus way is just seeing one side of the equation. Which is why boeing takes a considerably different approach to fly by wire controls.

lurkio

21st May 2010, 08:15

When I converted to "glass" one of the best things our instructor did was put tape over the FCU windows. That made us look at the PFD and see what we had selected and what the FMA thought we wanted to do.
It only took a few minutes to get it into even my dense skull and it has stuck to this day.

fireflybob

21st May 2010, 11:13

When I converted to "glass" one of the best things our instructor did was put tape over the FCU windows. That made us look at the PFD and see what we had selected and what the FMA thought we wanted to do.

Brilliant idea - must have been a good instructor!

FCU windows = Opinion, FMA = FACT

Willie Everlearn

29th May 2010, 18:07

Hats off to Embraer.
On their EMB170/190 the AFCS button pushing provides no feedback, no green lights, nothing. The feedback is solely in the FMA. So, you have no choice but to refer to the FMA to ensure you have engaged the desired or required mode.

Willie :ok:

ettore

4th Sep 2010, 00:47

From Odyssey Marine Exploration, Inc. 2nd Quarter Report , dated Aug. 9th, '10:

ET 409 Project

On January 25, 2010, Ethiopian Airlines Flight ET 409 crashed into the Mediterranean Sea shortly after take-off from Beirut International Airport in Lebanon. Our search vessel, Ocean Alert, was operating near the area and had been using the Beirut port for fuel and supplies during these operations. In the weeks prior to the ET 409 crash, Odyssey management had been negotiating an agreement with the Government of Lebanon to partner in a deep-ocean project, so Lebanese officials were familiar with the capabilities of Odyssey and the Ocean Alert.

When ET 409 crashed, Lebanese authorities contacted Odyssey and asked the company to assist in the search and recovery efforts. The Alert returned to Beirut and was integrated into search operations that included the Lebanese Navy and Army, the US Navy (USS Ramage) and a German Navy ship, the Laboe.

Before the plane wreckage was discovered, the Government of Lebanon asked Odyssey to provide additional capabilities for more complex technical documentation of the site. Odyssey sent the Odyssey Explorer, which was based in the UK, to Lebanon to assist. We were paid $1.4 million for the work completed to-date by the Lebanese government. We presently have a signed agreement with the insurance company to create a photomosaic of the entire area of wreckage and debris which we are commencing in August 2010.

Odyssey is continuing negotiations with the Lebanese government for the original project. All operations on this project will be conducted in close coordination with the Government of Lebanon and will include official government observers on board Odyssey vessels.

Source: Odyssey Marine Exploration Reports Continued Improvement in Financial Performance for Second Quarter 2010 - MarketWatch (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/odyssey-marine-exploration-reports-continued-improvement-in-financial-performance-for-second-quarter-2010-2010-08-09?reflink=MW_news_stmp)

CaptainSandL

3rd Jan 2011, 09:15

This article just written in Lebanese press YaLibnan:

Pilot inexperience, exhaustion behind ET409 crash, report

On the eve of the anniversary of the crash in Lebanon of Ethiopian airlines flight ET409, LBC TV reported that the investigation of the incident continues and is being handled by the manufacturer with the participation of Ethiopia and Lebanon.

The Boeing 737 crashed on January 25, 2010 just after taking off from Beirut international airport . All 90 people on board died as a result of the crash.

According to LBC sources the investigation so far revealed that the crash occurred because of poor judgment by the Ethiopian Airlines management in choosing the crew, especially since the the captain and his copilot ,were exhausted as a result of working more than a hundred flight hours during that month, while according to international regulations they should not be working more than sixty flight hours.

Furthermore the captain and his copilot did not have enough experience in flying such a plane . According to the investigation 1500 flying hours are required to fly the 737 while neither the captain nor the copilot had more than 200 hours of experience.

The investigation so far confirms the preliminary report of May 2010 which revealed that “both the pilot’s and co-pilot’s inexperience with the jet was “certainly behind the accident”.

According to LBC sources the committee in charge of the investigation is planning to meet in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa on January 24 to start drafting the reported which is expected to take about 3 month to be completed

Pilot inexperience, exhaustion behind ET409 crash, report | Ya Libnan | World News Live from Lebanon (http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/01/03/pilot-inexperience-exhaustion-behind-et409-crash-report/)

atakacs

3rd Jan 2011, 15:55

Furthermore the captain and his copilot did not have enough experience in flying such a plane . According to the investigation 1500 flying hours are required to fly the 737 while neither the captain nor the copilot had more than 200 hours of experience.

Wow - amazing ! I'm surprised this was not leaked earlier.

Sqwak7700

3rd Jan 2011, 16:43

Surely they mean experience in type. It is impossible for the Captain of a 737 to have 200 hours total. I'm sure it is just the media getting it wrong again.

atakacs

3rd Jan 2011, 17:37

Still neither the captain nor copilot having 200h on type is not reassuring... especially with their workload in the past month :(

Sqwak7700

4th Jan 2011, 04:22

Still neither the captain nor copilot having 200h on type is not reassuring... especially with their workload in the past month

I fully agree, most airlines have rules against pairing un-experienced crew together.

I fear this will become more common, especially with MPLs in the right seat. Won't make much difference how many hours they have. Look at the Air India Express guy, he had plenty of time in type but was about as worthless as a yoke clip in an Airbus. :rolleyes:

CaptainSandL

7th Jan 2011, 12:52

In the interests of balance this response from Ethiopian Airlines:

Ethiopian Airlines has blasted as "unfounded and speculative" reports which suggest that the crash of a Boeing 737-800 a year ago was caused by pilot exhaustion and inexperience.

Flight ET409 crashed into the Mediterranean Sea shortly after departing Beirut for Addis Ababa on 25 January 2010, killing 82 passengers and eight crew members.

Lebanese media have claimed the crash was a result of pilot exhaustion and, controversially, inexperience. Ethiopian says it "refutes the repeated attempts" to "sway the public opinion by publishing unfounded and speculative information" over the cause of the crash.

Ethiopian adds that it "condemns the intentional effort by some Lebanese media to delude the public by disseminating baseless information".

Airline Industry and Aviation Safety News from Flightglobal (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2011/01/07/351568/ethiopian-slams-suggestion-737-crash-pilots-were-exhausted.html)

ettore

8th Feb 2011, 21:11

A good overview, with some approximation, but not that much wild speculation. i.e. worth reading :

allAfrica.com: Ethiopia: Year Later Surviving Families of ET409 Crash Remain in Dark (http://allafrica.com/stories/201102010515.html)

marchino61

10th Feb 2011, 02:10

I find the airline's statement interesting for what it doesn't say.

It does not attempt to refute the figures given for flying hours that month and hours on type.

chimbu warrior

10th Feb 2011, 02:34

Does anybody have a link to the preliminary report on this tragedy?

Thanks in advance.

wozzo

10th Feb 2011, 14:45

Does anybody have a link to the preliminary report on this tragedy?

There hasn't been one published yet.

JLWSanDiego

8th Mar 2011, 12:53

Does anyone know if any thing was recovered from the debris field?

Machaca

8th Mar 2011, 16:01

Does anyone know if any thing was recovered from the debris field?

Have a look at page 10 of this thread...

PPRuNe Towers

26th Mar 2011, 18:57

Interesting date on the prelim but here it is at last:

http://www.lebcaa.com/pdfs/Investigation%20Progress%20Report.pdf

The section most discussed by actual pilots would be:

The flight was initially cleared by ATC on a Lateb 1 D departure from Runway 21. Just before take-off ATC changed the clearance to an "immediate right turn direct Chekka".

The flight took-off at 00:37:08 and just after take-off ATC (Tower) instructed ET 409 to turn right on a heading of 315 degrees and change to Control (ATC) 119.3. ET 409 acknowledged the clearance and heading 315 degrees was selected on the MCP.

ET 409 continued right turn, ATC instructed ET 409 to turn left heading 270 degrees. ET acknowledged and 270 was selected on the MCP. Maximum heading reached prior to left turn was 003 degrees.

ET-409 continued left turn to heading 270 degrees after acknowledgment and continued to a southerly track then on a sharp left turn until it disappeared from the radar screen and crashed into the Mediterranean Sea about 4 minutes after take-off.

The aircraft impacted the water surface at 00:41:30 around 6 NM South West of BRHIA and all occupants were fatally injured. SAR operations were initiated at 00:47:41.

The DFDR and CVR were retrieved from the sea bed and read, as per the Lebanese Government decision, at the BEA facility at Le Bourget, France. The recorders data revealed that ET 409 encountered two stick shakers respectively at time 00:40:01 for a period of 29 seconds and at 00:40:56 for a period of 26 seconds. 10 "Bank Angle" warnings were registered between 00:38:41 and 00:40:54; an over-speed clacker was also registered from time 00:41:25 till the end. The maximum registered AOA was 32 degrees at 00:40:14, maximum registered bank angle was 118 degrees Left at 00:41:14, the maximum registered speed was 407.5 knots at 00:41:28, the maximum registered G load was 4.412 at 00:41:28 and the maximum registered nose down pitch value was 63.1 degrees at 00:41:16.

The DFDR recording stopped at 00:41:28 with the aircraft at 1291 feet. The last radar screen recording was at 00:41:28 with the aircraft at 1300 feet. The last CVR recording was a loud noise just prior to 00:41:30.

Avenger

28th Mar 2011, 08:43

Interesting initial findings, of note: The Captain was recently released after type conversion and most of his experience was on T/Ps. Only 188 hrs Jet. The 10 Bank Angle warnings indicating manual flight. Changing ATC instructions possibly confused the crew, it may be they selected 270 on the MCP, which could have given the RIGHT turn from HDG 315, when ATC wanted a Left turn, hence the AP disconnection and manual flight. Stalling after overbanking to the LEFT seems the most probable cause. The Trim tab is off for investigation as per AD, unlikely to be a big factor.

Centaurus

28th Mar 2011, 10:05

The DFDR and CVR were retrieved from the sea bed and read, as per the Lebanese Government decision, at the BEA facility at Le Bourget, France. The recorders data revealed that ET 409 encountered two stick shakers respectively at time 00:40:01 for a period of 29 seconds and at 00:40:56 for a period of 26 seconds. 10 "Bank Angle" warnings were registered between 00:38:41 and 00:40:54; an over-speed clacker was also registered from time 00:41:25 till the end. The maximum registered AOA was 32 degrees at 00:40:14, maximum registered bank angle was 118 degrees Left at 00:41:14, the maximum registered speed was 407.5 knots at 00:41:28, the maximum registered G load was 4.412 at 00:41:28 and the maximum registered nose down pitch value was 63.1 degrees at 00:41:16.

This lot certainly qualifies for an unusual attitude and makes you wonder exactly what sort of unusual attitude training the pilots received. Was it benign unusual attitudes? In other words within the range stated in the Boeing 737 FCTM as pitch attitude greater than 25 degrees nose up, or greater than 10 degrees nose down or bank angle greater than 45 degrees or within the above parameters but flying at airspeeds inappropriate for the conditions.

While unusual attitude G forces cannot be accurately replicated in 737 simulators, the flight instruments are capable of showing extreme attitudes. From reading accident reports involving unusual attitudes the majority were in IMC or dark night suggesting that pilot interpretation of the flight instrument readings were faulty. This is nothing more than a matter of regular simulator practice - not just once every cyclic three years.

One technique often used during practice unusual attitude training in the simulator is to direct the pilot to look down and close his eyes until the instructor says 'Handing over control." This is an ancient throw back to private pilot teaching under the hood to prevent the pilot glancing outside to see which way is up.

In real life, there is no way both pilots in a 737 would have their eyes closed and head down if an unusual attitude occurs. They would be fully aware of what is happening on the instruments as it all happened. But how to recover from that situation is another story altogether.

This is where unusual attitude training in the simulator must involve extreme attitudes not just a pussy cat approach. Note the extreme attitudes reached in the Beirut Ethiopean Airways situation. Obviously a competent pilot would have made the appropriate recovery control movements well before the aircraft reached an unrecoverable attitude and altitude. All the more reason for the investigation to look closely at how unusual attitudes are taught in the simulator and the qualification standard of the instructor to teach these manoeuvres. . Ticking the boxes means nothing. For example,

50 degrees angle of bank and 25 degrees nose up is defined as an unusual attitude. That may satisfy the check pilot as sufficient to tick the box and allow him to get back to more important things like the automatics :D But in doing so, he may have sold the crew short. And one night, a Beirut style disaster happens.

During the manouvering of the Ethiopean 737 there were two bouts of stick shakers and ten bank angle announcements. Seems that stalls were imminent at least and whatever recovery action taken (if any) was wrong or ineffective or both.

It was timely therefore to read the following letter to the editor of Aviation Week & Space Technology published 21 March 2011 and titled "Stymied by Stalls

"I am a retired U.S. Air Force pilot and a NASA astronaut with about 5000 hours in jet fighters and trainers, and I was a jet instructor pilot for more than three years.

With all this background, I never knew anyone who lost control of an aircraft and flew into the ground due to a stall. For one thing, stall recovery and unusual attitude recovery were essential parts of pilot training.

Even more important to ask what the pilot was doing while the aircraft got into a stall. Stalls occur when the angle of attack exceeds the critical value, and that normally occurs when the airspeed becomes too low or vertical acceleration (G-load) too high. These conditions do not occur instantaneously, and there is almost sufficient time for an alert pilot to recover with little loss of altitude.

Have we become so frugal with training time that we no longer teach pilots stall and unusual attitude recovery? Or have pilots become so complacent that they allow the automatic pilot to fly the aircraft without human monitoring?

For too long, unusual attitude training in the simulator has been tacked on as an afterthought towards the end of a session and not addressed seriously. Unusual attitude recovery from serious attitudes - not pussy cat ones - require good manipulative handling skills. It is a fact that automation has degraded these very skills needed for survival on a dark and stormy night. Throw in the propensity to have low hour recently graduated cadet pilots in the second in command seat and you have a recipe for potential disaster.

saltyfish

28th Mar 2011, 11:54

Hi All,

I live in Beirut and remember that night quite well.
I just want to add that weather conditions on that night were quite nasty by Lebanese standards and may have played a more significant part in the events than the Progress Report lets on.
Given the presence of thunderstorm cells in the area, wind shear could have could have caught the crew off guard.
Furthermore, there was thunder and lightning activity so severe that it offered one of the most spectacular fire works display I have ever witnessed. This could have further contributed to distracting the crew.

lederhosen

28th Mar 2011, 12:15

Newly converted captain and inexperienced first officer lose control of 737 just after takeoff in the middle of the night in stormy conditions. It really does seem very similar to the Kenya Airways crash. The report says the captain had 10,000 hours but few on the NG. It does not go into detail about his flying experience. But from his type ratings it looks like he flew the 757/767 as a co-pilot for several years before becoming a F50 captain. Hopefully the next report will shed some light on why they lost control. But the direction suggested by the posters above is looking increasingly likely.

captplaystation

28th Mar 2011, 12:22

Difficult to imagine how they managed to go through that sequence of extreme attitudes without anyone manging to effect a recovery.

Possible causes that spring to mind ? confusion about whether A/P engaged, as in the Kenyan & quite possibly Flash Airlines accidents / runaway stab and an incorrect attempt to offset it by elevator control which would of course be overwhelmed / A/P tripping into CWS following severe turbulence as a result of penetration of a CB and nobody noticing. . well, I am stabbing in the dark here, and still it is difficult to imagine these extreme attitudes continuing unchecked, but then so were the Kenyan/Flash accidents.

Tee Emm

29th Mar 2011, 12:24

well, I am stabbing in the dark here, and still it is difficult to imagine these extreme attitudes continuing unchecked, but then so were the Kenyan/Flash accidents.

Rarely do we hear through official channels of incidents of this nature that are kept in-house. In other words close-calls but an accident avoided.
Difficult to imagine these extreme attitudes continuing unchecked?

I am not surprised. During a simulator session in the Boeing 737-200 where the captain and F/O were undergoing a type rating, the captain's ADI was "frozen" during a normal 25 degree angle of bank turn to the left. Initially, he was unaware of this as the comparitor light had not yet come on. The scene was a black night. The captain was then asked by "ATC" to stop the turn on a certain heading and as he started to roll out his ADI indicated the aircraft was still turning. The aim of the exercise was to demonstrate scan rate skill in that the captain should have immediately switched to the standby ADI to compare which of the three ADI's was most probably faulty.

Instead he continued to turn the control wheel in an attempt to level the aircraft not realising his ADI was actually frozen in a left turn. He kept pressure on the control wheel for several seconds causing the aircraft to roll beyond 90 degrees angle of bank to the right and the nose started to drop beyond 30 degrees below the horizon. The first officer meanwhile gazed seemingly stunned at his own display which correctly showed the true attitude. But he said nothing because he didn't know what to do or say. He had a total of 300 hours and this was his first jet aircraft.

The captain was by now thoroughly confused and looked at the standby ADI which was correctly indicating the aircraft rolling inverted. He then called out "Standby ADI failure" and immediately pulled the standby ADI caging button which did its job and levelled the ADI. All the while the first officer watched completely out of his depth. The result was now obvious so the instructor froze the simulator to discuss events.

The captain was highly experienced with over 10,000 hours on F28 and turbo-prop types.

RAT 5

29th Mar 2011, 16:26

I wonder if the FDR/CVR can tell us if the A/P was engaged and dis-engaged, was ever selected, or were they flying manually deliberately? What is their SOP in this regard? There are some operators that are manual until Flaps UP. daft, but true, especially on such a stormy night. Not the most freshest, most likely too.
Digressing slightly. How many of us are encouraged to scan SBY instruments. Remember Berganair as well. Today the NG has full LHS PFD on SBY electrics. Is this a customer options or standard? Anyway, when I did my command on B757, which did not have this luxury, I needed to demonstrate a SBY ILS. The same size dials as was the case on BAC 1-11. Good for the scan, power/ATT knowledge and precise trimming. One day in them sim the SBY RMI failed as well: sim fault but instructor let it run to see what happened. It was fun to fly the SBY ILS & ISA with old fashioned compass readouts by F/O. Good for crew coordination. Sweaty palms, but it worked. It also reminded us that the SBY's were there. I wonder about today's training. On MAP the 'needles' are out of view beyond 45 degrees. Do guys look just at the magenta line or do they look at the SBY RMI? On non-GPS a/c how do you know when you are within 5 degrees for descent on approach, or approaching the NDB inbd course for approach? Some of the old skills are still relevant; but never taught never learnt.

heavy.airbourne

29th Mar 2011, 17:30

scan SBY instruments
Be real! Anybody turning from 25° left bank to a right turn w/o noticing the HSI indication not changing should be removed from this job. This "captain" didn't notice anything peculiar with the HSI stuck at 25° left bank while turning to more than 90° right bank? :ugh: A threat to aviation!

Avenger

29th Mar 2011, 19:27

This Captain was not highly experienced...His total flying experience is 10,233 hours including 3,718 hours as PIC of which 2,488 hours are on different light and spray aircraft, 1,042 hours on Fokker 50 and 188 hours on B 737-700/800.

The radar trace show the a/c turned 48 degrees past the original HDG of 315 degrees. why? It looks very much like they initiated the turn to 270 degrees in the wrong direction and overbanked the correction to the left.

The first " Bank Angle" warning came at 0038.41 only 19 seconds before the corrected left turn (according to the radar trace) was made.

A disorientated perhaps fatigued crew. ,manual flight, lack of capacity, we have seen this all before, sadly.

Edited after confusion..

captplaystation

29th Mar 2011, 19:51

Avenger,
just to avoid confusion, the guy Tee Emm is talking about, and the ill fated Capt of the Ethiopian flight , should not be confused with each other :rolleyes:

Quite apart from the above, his command experience, AND mere 188hrs on type prior to command :ugh: :eek: , does make it slightly easier to understand the outcome.

Avenger

29th Mar 2011, 19:57

Ok I stand corrected! the perils of thread creep..

heavy.airbourne

29th Mar 2011, 20:20

This Captain was not highly experienced...His total flying experience is 10,233 hours (...) Are U guys real? This pilot was a failure and should never made it into air transport. There is no difference btn left and right seat - pitch, power, bank. If instruments do not follow input - check. What does it need beyond 10,000 hrs.? :ugh:

Lemurian

29th Mar 2011, 22:48

Quite an interesting discussion on unusual attitudes...
But the point is, to get out - with any chance of success - from an unusual attitude, a pilot shouldn't be the prey of some major disorientation, disorientation that led him to the dire situation he found himself in, in the first place.
Manual flight, at night, total IMC, no natural horizon and thunderflashes, one 180 ° right turn after takeoff, followed by a left turn, and another one, while climbing, IMO that's enough recipe for somatographic illusion.
Then the succession of disorganised reactions to the body accelerations, the cockpit warnings - bank, stall, overspeed...- to the brutal ending of a death dive, probably an attempt to pull out at a very high G (in excess of 4 ) thus causing the in-flight break-up of the airplane (simultaneous losses of DFDR recording and ground radar trace of the flight).

When will we really address this somatographic illusion killer with some real training ? because, you know, the performance of modern airliners isn't really decreasing, flight controls will have quite a lot more authority than they do now... that problem isn't going away.

lederhosen

30th Mar 2011, 06:19

I was following some way behind one of our NGs after holding due to an intense thunderstorm. We managed to weave our way around enough to make an approach and the field was clear. After landing the FO of the NG in front told me they got hit by lightning and all their EFIS disappeared. As they were stable and visual with the field they continued. If something like that happened to the Ethiopian crew in cloud, climbing and trying to follow changing atc instructions it would explain certain things. Not saying that it happened. But before we jump to conclusions lets hope the next report provides some more facts.

BOAC

30th Mar 2011, 07:39

When will we really address this somatographic illusion killer with some real training ? - the same way it was done in the 50's and 60's in the military where 'high-performance' was common. The older ones among us will recall the USAF film 'GET ON THE GAUGES'. It is all about the training system and its reliance on pretty colours, lots of buttons and 'infallible' systems and not about piloting. Ah well!

Leder - what you describe is, in fact, an 'easier' situation to handle than a subtle loss of reference in PF's ADI. No ADI's/EASI's - use the standby's!

Avenger

30th Mar 2011, 08:09

This article assumes the crash was "probably spacial disorientation", ( see summary of accidents at the back) , considering it was partly compiled with Boeing. interesting, they have more access than we enjoy.

http://www.skybrary.aero/bookshelf/books/1372.pdf

I would have thought if it had been a lightning strike it would have been audible on the CVR.

lederhosen

30th Mar 2011, 10:40

You are of course right BOAC and I have to say I suspect that if there were concrete indications of instrument failure some suggestion might have already got out. Has it been clarified who was pilot flying?

Lemurian

30th Mar 2011, 11:25

This article assumes the crash was "probably spacial disorientation"
That was some find !
Thanks for the link.
Very useful for classroom purposes, I think.

Tee Emm

30th Mar 2011, 12:19

There are some operators that are manual until Flaps UP. daft, but true, especially on such a stormy night

Probably a wise policy if the pilots do not have the skills to fly manually:rolleyes:

blind pew

30th Mar 2011, 12:19

Centarus post 385
In real life, there is no way both pilots in a 737 would have their eyes closed and head down if an unusual attitude occurs.

Although the point wasn't mentioned in the Trident Staines crash inquiry BEA had a procedure which required ALL pilots to write down ATC clearances upon reception.
This was the probable reason why P1 and P3 never got the premature droop retraction.
Whether this has any relevance to the accident I do not know - but it is food for thought.
BEA kept this foolish procedure for several years after the crash as the management line was protecting their a***s and blamed the accident on P1s heart condition.
Turning your head and bending your neck one wouldn't notice the acceleration of the aircraft as the attitude changed.

Tee Emm

30th Mar 2011, 12:30

IMO that's enough recipe for somatographic illusion.

A thoroughly over-worked terminology. Why are there not hundreds of aircraft crashing all over the world as they depart into stormy nights. The rapid acceleration of jets on take off into IMC and at night probably happens every minute somewhere on earth. And fighters shot off aircraft carriers at night? The fact remains there will always be very good pilots and lousy pilots. Same as vehicle drivers. The lousy ones are the one's at most risk.

hhorta

7th Apr 2011, 12:13

another accident waiting to happen,, they fly their Pilots up to 120 hours a month,, fly them to death. Fatigue is the major cause of accidents and here they seem to think they're not vulnerable. Machismo and arrogance is a bad cocktail of death.. Plus their FOs are overworked and underpaid, stressed out and unhappy, another bad cocktail...

maDJam

17th Jan 2012, 10:24

January 17, 2012

Ethiopian Airlines said Tuesday the 2010 crash of its jet off Lebanon was likely caused by sabotage, a lightning strike or was shot down, rejecting an official Lebanese probe blaming pilot error.

"The aircraft disintegrated in the air due to explosion, which could have been caused by a shoot-down, sabotage or lightning strike," Desta Zeru, vice president of flight operations for Ethiopian Airlines, said in a statement.

A Lebanese government official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told AFP Tuesday that its investigations blamed the crew's mistakes in piloting the jet when it went down in stormy weather on January 25, 2010.

However, the airline's own accident report released Tuesday said witnesses saw an explosion in the sky before the jet crashed into the sea, indicative of "external damage" inflicted, Desta told reporters.

The airline had already rejected an earlier draft report from Lebanon, and instead maintained the pilots were alert at the time of the crash, according to black box evidence.

"It's biased, it's missing facts, [it includes] hypotheses and conveniently excludes hard facts. We totally reject it," Desta said.

Desta accused Lebanese authorities of omitting the majority of the wreckage from the investigation and said Lebanon "ignored crucial information," such as security footage and autopsy records.

The aircraft crashed into the Mediterranean less than five minutes after take-off, killing all 90 people on board.

Lebanese authorities and Ethiopian airlines have been investigating the cause of the crash for two years, but have disagreed on its cause.

Lebanon news - NOW Lebanon -Ethiopia Airlines denies pilot error in Lebanon jet crash (http://nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=353531)

maDJam

17th Jan 2012, 10:37

Wow, nothing on this story for quite some time and 2 releases in one day!

January 17, 2012

A probe into the 2010 crash of an Ethiopian airliner in Lebanon in which all 90 people on board died points to pilot error, according to an official report issued Tuesday by Lebanese authorities.

"What is clear is that there were errors on the part of the pilot and co-pilot who are entirely responsible for the plane crash," Transport Minister Ghazi Aridi told AFP, referring to the January 25, 2010 crash.

According to the report, the pilot and co-pilot had been working non-stop for 51 days and were exhausted when the Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737-800 went down minutes after taking off from Beirut, killing 82 passengers and eight crew.

Aridi said the plane was sound and a transcript of the exchange that took place between the crew and the tower control on takeoff showed there was no problem.

He said the Lebanese report on the crash was in line with findings by French and American investigators.

An earlier preliminary report on the crash said the accident was due to pilot inexperience and a series of errors by the pilots who failed to take into account signals emitted by the plane's instruments.

The pilot erroneously believed the jet was on automatic pilot and as a result he and his co-pilot failed to heed the alarm signals as the plane veered dangerously off course before crashing, the preliminary report showed.

Lebanese officials have previously said that data recovered from the plane's black box showed all instruments were working well until it plunged into the Mediterranean in a fierce storm.

They have also ruled out sabotage.

Lebanon news - NOW Lebanon -Lebanese probe points to pilot error in jet crash (http://nowlebanon.com/NewsArticleDetails.aspx?ID=353509)

wozzo

17th Jan 2012, 11:25

Final Investigation Report (PDF) (http://www.lebcaa.com/pdfs/Final%20Investigation%20Report%20ET%20409.pdf)

More on that page:
Lebanese Civil Aviation Authority (http://www.lebcaa.com/)

Skipskatta

17th Jan 2012, 13:43

Total confusion in the cockpit. And again, the wrong-stall-recovery-scenario!

sb_sfo

17th Jan 2012, 14:28

Just 3 pages in, the IIC has the wrong date of the accident? WTF, did anybody proofread this?

PPRuNe Towers

17th Jan 2012, 16:32

The second of the stalls:

Contrary to any stall recovery procedure, the control column was initially kept backward and gradually increased over the next 17” (seconds)

BOAC

17th Jan 2012, 16:47

It should be blindingly obvious to all that yet again the crew did not understand that they were stalled, so any comments about 'incorrect stall recovery action' are meaningless.

Once again, an 'ineffective' F/O - apart from calling 'speed dropping' there was little else. If it was not so tragic, the Captain's exhortation to the F/O then 'OK try to do something' would be laughable. As skipskatta says "Total confusion in the cockpit".

keitaidenwa

17th Jan 2012, 17:43

Ethiopian airline has decided to go paranoid:

Ethiopian | Press Releases (http://www.flyethiopian.com/en/news/default.aspx)

And their criticism against the report:

http://www.flyethiopian.com/en/docs/downloads/ET409Inv/3_Part_II_Appended_to_the_Final_Report.pdf

Their theories in nutshell:

1. The computer went crazy, causing the erratic manoeuvring, showing crazy things in instruments and causing uncommanded trim adjustments
2. Captains 188 hours on new type in 51 days with absolute minimum rest could not have caused fatigue since it was within the limits of the regulations of the Ethiopian CAA and Company SOM.
3. Likewise the comments that Ethiopian paired a 188 hours on type Captain with a FO of 350 Hours should be replaced with "FO and Captain met the requirements in the FOPM approved by CAA".
4. Because the final FDR recording was diving 407 kts at 32 degrees nose down, left bank roll 61 degrees at 1300ft... ...The only logical conclusion is that the plane exploded at that moment in a orange fireball.

So the theory, as described in a official press release is:

After all the stalls and extreme bank angles, airplane nose about to hit the ocean, there was a "shoot-down, sabotage, or lightening strike". Thus, any characterization of Ethiopian pilots or flight operations is pure fabrication.

What an epic load of :mad: :mad:.

Telstar

17th Jan 2012, 19:13

What an epic load of :mad::mad:

The well known and dreadful affliction known as loss of face.

Greytraveler

18th Jan 2012, 03:10

Sqwak7700

18th Jan 2012, 05:32

Maybe, but one need only read the CVR transcript and ATC tapes to know that there was not even the slightest chance of sabotage. Just two inept individuals doing something beyond their abilities. Flying is not hard when things are going smooth, but incompetence kills you very quickly when things start going pear-shaped. The task load then goes up exponentially and it is exacerbated by the threat of personal harm, unlike other professions were the stress is not accompanied by threat to oneself.

The fact that Ethiopian mentions eye-witness reports of a fireball in the sky is laughable. Everybody who knows even the slightest thing about aviation accidents and eyewitnesses would know that it is very common to have such reports, even when there is no sign of fire. It is a psychological phenomenon due to the speed of the events, and you often see it with race car crashes as well. Besides, since when do aircraft accident reports rely on eyewitness accounts to tell them what happened?

I've always known to stay away from traveling on most African carriers, but I thought some were a little more progressive than this. What an embarrassment to aviation this airline is. I have a hard time understanding why they are not on a black list. Their reaction to this investigation shows a complete lack of any safety culture, not to mention the other blaring safety concerns exposed in the investigation.

The_Steed

18th Jan 2012, 08:25

As SLF, this is really scary...

Allegedly - the airline is lying about the cause of the accident, presumably to protect revenue and reputation, and so if I believe their version of events I should conclude that they are a safe airline to fly with since the accident was caused by technical problems. However, if the allegations are true, then flying with them is putting my life at a greater risk than necessary due to the proficiency of some of their pilots.

Not sure how they can get away with that (if the allegations are true)...

jet-lover

18th Jan 2012, 08:49

1. a captain with only 188 hrs on the type and FO who is fresh graduate from a cadet program with total time of 650 of which 350 is on the type

2. a particularly bad weather on the day of the accident as confirmed by other pilots also. There was a lot of wind shear and embedded CB’s it was a dark night and we all know even a pilot with decades of flying experience can get caught sometimes. Weather reported about the time of the accident (00:35 UTC) was:
OLBA 250000Z 31008KT 280V340 8000 VCTS FEW020CB SCT026 13/06 Q1014 NOSIG= [00:00 UTC; wind 310 degrees at 8 knots, variable from 280° to 340°; visibility 8km; thunderstorms in the vicinity; few clouds with cumulonimbus at 2,000 ft; scattered clouds at 2,600 ft; temperature 13 degrees C, dew point 6 degrees C, pressure 1014 hPa]
OLBA 250100Z VRB03KT 4000 SHRA FEW020CB BKN026 12/07 Q1014 NOSIG=

3. ATC initially issued LATEB 1D SID but changed it to ’’ immediate right turn direct to chekka ‘’ just before takeoff which understandably puts the crews in uncomfortable situation considering the deteriorating weather.

4. Crew not complying with ATC instruction. ATC instructed an immediate right turn after departure to heading 315 but FO ( pilot flying at the time ) overshoot and continued the turn till 003 degrees. on CVR, captain was heard telling FO to follow ATC instruction. then ATC instruct left turn to 270 and crew acknowledge but again overshoot and roll out on 180.
5. A total of 10 ‘’ bank angle ‘’ warning with in 2 min.
6. normal climb until 7700 ft then activation of stick shaker warning for 29 seconds while at the same time the AOA was 32 degrees followed by sudden descent to 6000 ft
7. then the crews managed to gain temporary recovery and climbed to 9000 ft at which point there was another stick shaker warning for a period of 26 seconds, sharp left bank then the plane plunged to the Mediterranean sea

8. The FDR registered top speed to 407 kts and bank angle of 118 degrees before impact
9. All instruments were working and recoding data until impact. after all these overwhelming evidences, ET still believes there is some sort of sabotage. what an epic ignorance and stupidity. in fact this was a disaster waiting to happen. flight deck crew has repeatedly complained about the pairing of crews with low hrs but it fell on arrogant deaf management ears.

I'm talking this from self experience. i have gone through the same ET cadet program and was put on the same aircraft few months after graduation. the transition training we got was a nightmare. no observation flights, no indoctrination class of whatsoever. ET is till denying their problem so i wouldn't b surprised to see another similar accident soon.

Other than the expats, basic salary for a 737 captain is 2000 usd after tax and normally one can make up to max. of 4000 depending on flight hours in a month. FO basic salary is 600 usd after tax. pay check is on the average around 1000 usd after flight hrs. so no wonder everyone works like a mule. busting max. hrs of a week, month and year is common stuff. i myself flew 126 and 119 hrs at one peak season in 2009.

Refusing to accept flights or challenging management on such practices is an immediate threat to anyone's job security.

Ethiopian CAA is puppet organization. rather than ECAA being a regulatory body, its the other way around. its ET who orders ECAA of what they want to b approved. this way, ET was able to operate its F50's which would have been stamped NOT airworthy so many years ago. there is a lot of buzz about the huge new aircraft orders made so far ET and the brand new 787 coming in june this yr. the fact of the matter remains, ET is an organization ROTTING from its root. the former CEO ( mr. Girma Wake ) was replaced by ruling party loyal Mr Tewolde Gebremariam. many of ET's senior engineers r leaving for a better pay and working condition in the middle east.

In a recent incident, 60 engineers were denied permission from immigration office to leave the country. after recent negotiations between the pilot association and the management failed, there is a new exodus of pilots to companies like fly bubai and emirates. the problems in ET r countless and the denial of its managers makes the situation even worse.

infrequentflyer789

18th Jan 2012, 09:27

gotta say that the tone of the report in part is far from professional - lots of use of rhetorical questions and even exclamations marks - such as:

What really happened is completely opposite to that!

someone enjoyed writing this

And the airline's response too. Looks like both parties have been at odds for a while. Regarding the engineering sim sessions:The Ethiopian party had notified the IIC that they will attend but did not show up.
The Ethiopia response comes close to amusing, if there weren't so many dead bodies involved. The repetition of "loss of integrity of the pitch flight control system" flying in the face of all evidence brings to mind the Iraqi information Minister...

If you manage to read past all that there's a couple of gems near the bottom:The operator should consider developing his safety
oversight program in order to detect such potential flight
crew performance.
Gets the response:Ethiopian Airlines has SMS program in place. The FOQA uses the
monitoring and trend analysis by IATA/CAE-Flight scape. This
program does not include trends related to in flight break-ups.
And finally, right at the end they drop this in:The autopilot system on B737 aircraft needs to be modified to
engage regardless of forces applied to the controls and to provide
an alert if the autopilot does not engage.
So, the crew didn't have a clue what they were doing after all then ? [but it's still the a/c at fault...]

The airline attitude seems to be:

Airline and crew did nothing wrong, ever
The crew flew into a fatal storm cell because ATC told them to
Control inputs being all over the place is because the flight control system was broken first
Their crew would have recovered (even given the broken control system...) from a 400kt+ spiral dive when already pulling over 4G, but unfortunately someone blew them up / shot them down at 1300ft, and why isn't anyone investigating that because it's obviously the real problem...

:ugh:

Swiss Cheese

18th Jan 2012, 09:40

We all know it takes a chain of causes to make this sort of tragedy happen.

It is not surprising that the manufacturer gives itself a clean bill of health (again). Keen pprune watchers will recall the rudder pcu saga and remember United 585 or US Air 424 and indeed Silk Air? More recently, KQ509 (a 737-800) makes for interesting reading, given that the entire wreckage was left to be pillaged in the swamp outside Doula.

I was interested here to check the issue with the Trim Tab.

"In addition, a motivating factor for examination of the left side tab mechanism is the fact
that the inboard attach bearing was found with all of the bearing balls missing. It was
subsequently found (see Enclosure 2 Metallurgical Exam) that this condition existed at the
time of the accident."

That's all fine then, because the pilots got it wrong, so let's forget about the AD on this issue and any manufacturer related issues...

Dani

18th Jan 2012, 11:16

That's the difference: When it's a Boeing, it's always pilots fault. When it's an Airbus - it's always Airbus' fault, even when the crew faults are apparent...

On a more rational note: Silk Air 185 was definetly homocide.

fireflybob

18th Jan 2012, 11:47

I would hope that if Ethiopian Airways cannot accept the report's findings in the light of clear evidence that their airline will be banned from using other States' Airspace.

jet-lover

18th Jan 2012, 13:01

@fireflybob:

on a press conference held for local journalists, the CEO is even blaming CIA and mossad. his main argument being, in the document leaked my wikileaks, in a memo sent from embassy of US in jerusalem to washington, it says ET will have hard time ahead because the investigation most probably will reveal pilot error. ET CEO said, how can he americans say like this unless they r aware of some sabotage. while he was clever enough to dig arguments like this, he intentionally goes blind when it comes to the overwhelming evidences which support pilot error.

misd-agin

18th Jan 2012, 13:52

Report mentions that the a/c was frequently, or constantly, out of trim.

737-800 is sensitive to control wheel pressure/inputs while trying to engage the autopilot. I'm not sure if an out of trim, or significantly out of trim, a/c will allow the A/P to be engaged. Maintaining attitude would require force on the yoke and releasing it would display it from neutral as it seeks the trimmed speed.

Automation 101 - push a button and VERIFY that the correct action took place. No assuming, verify.

Sqwak7700

18th Jan 2012, 14:12

SwissCheese:

That's all fine then, because the pilots got it wrong, so let's forget about the AD on this issue and any manufacturer related issues...

As an airline pilot, I would agree with you on not taking the easy road and blaming the pilot all the time. But you can't ignore the CVR and FDR data. At no point do the pilots discuss any difficulty with flight controls. They were clearly lost and overwhelmed by the situation they found themselves in. Their communications sound more like the Colgan Air Q400 crash - pure confusion of the situation they were in.

Take a look at the UPS accident report. Their flight controls began failing almost immediately due to the raging fire in the main-deck. Right away, you see a discussion between the CA and FO about the apparent lack of controls (caused by the slacking of the control cables due to the heat).

No-one here denies that both Airbus and Boeing have their issues and have had some accidents which bring up the questions of mechanical failures. But this doesn't seem like one of those.

lomapaseo

18th Jan 2012, 15:03

I would hope that if Ethiopian Airways cannot accept the report's findings in the light of clear evidence that their airline will be banned from using other States' Airspace.

This is not how things work in an ICAO environment.

The airline can say what it wants and dispute any investigatory findings and recommendations.

Whether the believe them or not, or just want their investors to have faith in the airline is immaterial.

It is up to their regulator to take any action they deem appropriate to follow up. For all we know there is nothing now to be done if the airline has already addressed any possible issues without admitting legal culpability.

For the rest of us aviation professionals, there is only the lessons learned in our own minds

Clandestino

18th Jan 2012, 20:56

No faults were recorded, yokes were interconnected and captain had 21 years and 10 233 hours under his belt. I might have missed something but I don't recall KLM ever fully accepting the Spanish report regarding the loss of Rijn.

Now what?

captplaystation

18th Jan 2012, 21:57

Or Turkish aportioning the blame for AMS fairly between Boeing & themselves.

As you say "now what". :rolleyes:

Callsign Kilo

18th Jan 2012, 23:20

Absolute nonsense. The FDR and CVR depicts pandemonium. Yes the environmental factors were challenging; high terrain on the coast, convective activity, heavy rain and darkness. But these two shouldnt have been let anywhere near an aeroplane. You can take the FO out of the equation, he added nothing. The Captain completely incompetent, his control inputs erratic. The breakdown of situational awareness goes as far as suggesting subtle incapacitation. I am very aware that it is the easiest thing in the world to read an accident report and cast opinion, however this was deplorable. And Ethopian's response is criminal. What a disgraceful organisation.

lomapaseo

19th Jan 2012, 00:06

callsign kilo

Absolute nonsense. The FDR and CVR depicts pandemonium. Yes the environmental factors were challenging; high terrain on the coast, convective activity, heavy rain and darkness. But these two shouldnt have been let anywhere near an aeroplane. You can take the FO out of the equation, he added nothing. The Captain completely incompetent, his control inputs erratic. The breakdown of situational awareness goes as far as suggesting subtle incapacitation. I am very aware that it is the easiest thing in the world to read an accident report and cast opinion, however this was deplorable. And Ethopian's response is criminal. What a disgraceful organisation.

I accept your right to an opinion such as this and I have no arguments against it.

However I doubt that there can be a judicial finding of crimanality or even any kind of futhur action against Ethiopian Airlines. Based on these findings

to err is human.

hopefully ET has addressed any shortcomings in this regard

Callsign Kilo

19th Jan 2012, 00:48

The use of the word criminal was not to infer that ET had created a criminal act in response to the reports findings. It was to highlight the disgraceful response to an accident which can be boiled down to little less than negligence. The combined experience on type on that Flightdeck was 538 hours. The Captain had accumulated his 188hrs in a 51 day period with minimum rest. Although jet experienced, his previous command type was a Fokker 50. There's a massive difference. He was also dealing with an extremely inexperienced and ineffective FO in challenging circumstances. The report underlines deplorable handling ability,a complete lack of airmanship, non existent situational awareness and workload management. This is all topped off by ET's refusal to acknowledge gross error. They talk about a FOQA program (which could offer little to no value) and blame Boeing on their design of one of the most successful commercial aircraft that they ever produced. Yes, the -800 isn't without it's flaws, however the very fact that the autopilot cannot be engaged when control column input is applied is actually quite logical. I would also suggest that Boeing have covered the area relating to the provision of an alert signifying that the autopilot isn't engaged. Large green letters above the AI and below the FMA stating 'CMD' will not appear.

Again, Im not really in favour of sitting back and firing both barrells of judgement at accident findings; however this all amounts to a very sad picture in commercial aviation safety.