Cash Out Now!!

[monster330]

The markets have now turned down for the next destructive wave of deflation.
One that will make 2008/early 2009 look timid in comparison.

suggest you all cash out of your PFund and convert units into 100% cash-and for now- $USD at that.
If you don't go to cash expect your pFund to lose between 60-80% over next 1 1/2 - 2 years.

And just coz we live near China- we're NOT immune.

You've been warned! Look out below!:ok:

[mngmt mole]

Put at least 30% into a gold fund. Property in HK has reached 'bubble' pricing once again....and is probably going to fall hard when the next wave down begins (don't forget, between 97' and 03' prices fell 67%). The fundamentals in the US and world economies is much worse than the recent stock market rises would suggest. :eek:

[hongkongfooey]

:zzz:
still waiting for the end of 2009 crash, wake me when it happens would ya :8

[superfrozo]

IGNORE at your own peril, but for those of us well versed in the Elliot Wave Freakonomics, you would be aware that we are about to hit "Phase 6 - Part 2 - Subcrash 3" of "Wave set gamma".

This means one of two things:
1. Incredible market gains, OR,
2. Massive financial losses.*
*(please note: part 3 is also possible: this is defined as something between 1. & 2.)

I strongly recommend everyone sell everything they own, give me the cash & I will invest it in U.S. Dollar Put Options for you.

For those NOT familiar with Elliot Wave Theory, I suggest watching "Anchorman" for an approximation of the theory:

"Sex Panther Cologne for Men... 60% of the time, it works every time!"

:ok:

[monster330]

Good luck with your future, ignore at your own peril.
Typical dumbass comments like that make me realize why patterns of human behaviour are relatively easy to figure out.
All the best to ya- d&^kwad

[no_poster]

superfrozo

best post ever!!!!
:D

[ei-flyer]

Monster my little cherub - here's your diagnosis...

Black hair treated with brill cream (severe combover)

'70s thick rimmed glasses

Always chewing on a toothpick

Highly uneducated but have a doctorate in the university of life

Red and black chequered lumberjack hoody

Faded jeans - have seen better days

Had a stab at bush flying in Alaska, but after 'the accident', decided to leave behind your former life and start afresh in HK.

You now spend your days off (from working as a deputy manager at a local cardboard box distribution factory) as an amateur stock market analyzer, but never miss your 2:50 PM appointment at the sushi counter downtown. Here you can impress others with your knowledge.

Good luck with it... d&^kwad

:)

[hekokimushi]

what about gold related stocks??
Any comments from the Elliot's predictions?

i have been waiting for this for the whole of 2009

[oriental flyer]

Does Fidelity have any gold funds that we can put our money into
Preferably bullion but an ETF would do
MAny thanks for any info

[monster330]

ei -trier... been looking in the mirror have you!

oriental Flyer-
Not sure about gold etf's-there are a number going around.In the next wave of asset DEFALTION (NOT Inflation) of prices almost everything will lose value relative to cash- ie down the track you'll get more bang for your buck by holding cash now. Further out, maybe a couple years or so Gold will come roaring back as Fiat currency charades get (finally) exposed-but for NOW- Cash.
Gold is set to go down nominally against practically ALL currencies during this deflationary wave.

Hope this helps sir.

Monster:ok:

[arse]

Our Pfund does not have any GOLD or Precious Metals Option.

[NoAndThen]

Monster330, no disrespect, but as such as skilled investor, exactly what are you still doing as a lowly pilot?

Shouldn't you be retired by now on your own island? Or at least running your own 10 billion USD hedge fund?

[EXEZY]

I'm with Monster 330 on this one. Elliot Wave called it right in 2007 and it looks like they've hit the nail on the head again.
Having no idea is no reason to lambast anyone who does....

[crwjerk]

If you're going to cash out into USD then there's no point asking about gold. One goes up, the other goes down.........

[Cpt. Underpants]

Buy diamonds , very very good long term investment , with good returns

Bwaahahahahhhaaaaahhaaa!!!!

Good one. Here's another: Garlic! 300% return this year. No kidding.

[sisyphos]

China is the next Dubai. Only 1000 times bigger.

[mngmt mole]

Monster, if the world enters a new phase of deflation (almost a certainty IMHO), then the associated currencies will also devalue. In this scenario, gold should re-establish it's historic prominence as a 'true' store of value, and increase in value accordingly. I see it stabilising in the near term at the $1050 -$1150 range, with the next two stages of increase initially to the $1500 level, then up to possibly $2000. Gold has increased 4 fold in 6 years. I think the coming collapse of the world economy will see gold reaching historic highs. Remember, on an inflation adjusted basis, gold would have to reach about $2200 to equal it's previous highs of the early 80's. One things for sure, equities and property are (particularly in China/HK) are about to see a stomach churning plunge. I think it will be 2020 at the earliest before the world recovers to 2007 levels of wealth.

[Absolutely Fabulous]

This means one of two things:
1. Incredible market gains, OR,
2. Massive financial losses.*

hahahaha........brilliant........either way you win :D

[captncannot]

Yeah, cause if there's one thing employees know lots about, it's investing :rolleyes:

[mngmt mole]

....yea, just like management knows fuel hedging...?

[superfrozo]

Got some cash to invest & wanna avoid the impending triple-strength financial mega-tsunami ninja-warrior crash we're about to experience any non-specific time period now?!?!

Three words fellas:

Gold-plated, diamond-wearing Garlic-fed Ostriches.
In olive groves (or pine plantations, I forget which). :}

Minimum 344.79% return per week. :ok:

[Ex Douglas Driver]

Gold-plated, diamond-wearing Garlic-fed Ostriches.
In olive groves
wearing Alpaca wool jerseys... while sitting in a time share holiday house...

[Cpt. Underpants]

Gold-plated, diamond-wearing Garlic-fed Ostriches.
In olive groves,wearing Alpaca wool jerseys... while sitting in a time share holiday house...

...Hoarding fine single-malt whiskey and admiring commemorative plates of Charles and Diana's wedding...

[oriental flyer]

Some of the responses to monster 330 have been somewhat frivolous . He raises some very good points and is simply trying to warn of an impending mess to come.
I happen to think that inflation will be the ultimate issue rather than deflation but what do I know . Having said that I strongly believe that the economic mess the west finds itself in is far from over and the second wave will be with us this year and I suspect that it will be ugly

[oicur12]

"China is the next Dubai. Only 1000 times bigger."

Hardly likely.

Most consumables on the planet come from China. big difference.

[mngmt mole]

...yea, and a lot of good that will do China if no one has any money to buy said goods...! The collapse is coming, only a matter of time.

[oicur12]

The money will be there. It always has, it always will be.

It will just be in someone else's hands, maybe not yours anymore.

Who ever has the money will be consuming.

[On the beach]

Who ever has the money will be consuming.

Quick buy pork bellies!!

On the beach :ok:

[monster330]

Regarding Gold:

The wave of deflation will take down ALL assets with it: Equities, commodities, property, bonds etc.

The relative safe haven is cash and for now USD for this reason.

Billions of dollars of credit and debt swim around the globe daily in "the markets". There are untold billions of debt that is DENOMINATED in USD, by far the largest slice of ALL debt, and as that debt is liquidated- via margin calls, withdrawals from funds- you name it- the demand on dollars USD to service that debt will put enormous upward pressure on the greenback- it will appreciate RELATIVE to all other currencies.

Ultimately the USD is dead in the water but that day is a good couple of years off yet, or more. The collapse of the USD will occur concurrently with the Collapse of the US as ANY sort of world power.
And history is full of tales of the fight country's and empires put up before their "head" finally rolls.

Also- just because the USD rallies does NOT therefore make gold decline, they are different markets that beat to their own drum.

Long term I too think gold will excel-but not before a wave of selling off via aforementioned asset DEFLATION.

Cheers
Monster:ok:

PS As an aside, only a year ago I stated that Barack Obama would serve only one term of office and be regarded in history as the big villain who presided over America's Second and Greatest Depression.
I said that because this wave of deflation was set in motion well before he reached office and was unstoppable-delayable, perhaps-unstoppable-NO.

He's merely the guy in the chair at the time. Next elections for the US will come around the Bottom-ish of this great Bear Market and he'll (wrongly) be held accountable. The pessimism extant in society wll demand it.

:ouch:

[mngmt mole]

Monster, although I agree with most of what you say, I take exception to a couple of points. The US as a world power is far, far from over. The size and commitment of the US military will not wane for decades. Even this year, the budget for the military is 7 times that of Chinas. The US govt will ensure that any closing of the gap would be addressed. It is also worth pointing out the quality gap, which is also significant. I can assure you that US Carrier Groups will be a presence in the South China Sea well past our lifetimes. As for Obama 'wrongly' being held accountable..? He has embarked on the attempted socialisation of the US economy and society on a scale not seen since FDR. While unemployment has accelerated at an historic pace, he has focused on 'health care reform', something which only 25% of the population says is a 'priority'. The fact that he has lost 3 important congressional elections in a row shows that the people of the country are strongly against his agenda. He basically controls the car companies, the banks, the insurance companies, co-opted the health care companies, and basically has meddled in nearly every area of the economy. Never mind the ridiculous attempt at 'Cap and Trade', and his willingness to turn over soverign control of the economy to a 'world' global warming govermental agency (thankfully that has died it's deserved death). Obama will be a one term president because the country will rightly throw him out for incompetence. As for Gold, I agree it will come of it's highs, but the reality is that the dollar will eventually collapse, and Gold will be the safe haven for all investors and soverign buyers. It can only see historic rises over the next decade or so.

[luvmuhud]

monster330.......Good points, well raised. Of course, the central tenet of socionomics is that the masses 'herd', so it's pretty pointless offering contrarian advice for the masses to 'heed'.....it is 'oxymoronic' (not sure if that is actually an adjective!)

mngmtmole.......I don't share your optimism on the future of the US. I remember reading Morris Berman's "Twighlight Of American Culture" about 6 or 7 years ago. The author points out the mounting evidence of the non-reversable decline in the US as a superpower/empire, and his prophesies are becoming reality. He believes the US will be a police state by 2030ish, and a third world country by ~2070. The evidence for this terminal decline is wide and varied; most recently, Standard and Poors have estimated US Treasury Debt will fall from AAA+ to speculative grade by 2030, and with a deficit of trillions each year, it's not hard to believe this will become a reality. On the social front, Berman points out the enourmous scale of social decay resulting from all the typical trappings....the drug trade, crime, lowering of educational standards, consumerism, debt laden households etc etc etc. Unfortunately, the rest of the US's allies are following closely behind, so I guess we may all go down together!

Your optimism puts you in good company though.......even Warren Buffett believes America's best years are ahead!


lmh

[boxjockey]

Whew!! I'm glad that el commandante put that last line in his diatribe, otherwise I never would have known. While I am also confident that the US is on the backside of it's reign as supreme superpower, I would caution you on counting your eggs before they hatch WRT China. China is indeed a fledgling superpower, but things are not all peaches and cream across the border. You want to talk about wealth gaps? While the high-speed train network is admirable, and a step in the right direction, how about things like scrubbers on power plants? How about all of the highways to nowhere? Public works projects are fantastic, necessary, and the US has been lacking an overhaul for 40 years, but across the border, I'm not sure how much the "public" is helped by the many public works projects in progress there. I think you have a "rose tinted" view of things, and perhaps you should step back for some perspective. As for cashing in, i'm in for the long haul, so buy, buy, and buy some more!!!! Cheers!!

box