Next Financial crash looming?

[EXEZY]

The media are talking up the fact that the recovery is here to stay but I have my doubts. I've been flying recently with a lot of "Elliot Wave" stalwarts who tell me the next "wave 3" is about to descend upon us. This next one will see the S+P drop by 800 points and the dollar appreciate in value, leading to deflation as every one sells assets and starts buying the greenback. I'm just wondering when this cataclismic event is likely to be? Seems the smart thing to stay out of buying property at the moment, any opinions?

[catpac]

time will tell...as long as the green back goes up in value, im happy!!!:ok:

[jonathon68]

HK Property is making little sense to me unless you are buying a place to live in, and/or CX (or KA etc) is paying the mortgage. I currently do have a rental property in HKG which I plan to offload in the next 12 months. I can make a better return elsewhere.

My focus is three-fold.

1. Foreign currencies. Against the USD/HKD, the Korean won and Indo rup are looking good, maybe 7% and 5% respectively over the next 6 months. I am still holding AUD and hoping for a further boost on parity with the USD and AUD interest rate rises in the short term. (I am up 27% ytd on my FCY account based on an AUD/NZD/CAD/EUR/GBP spread)

2. Equities. Downside for the HSI is looking to be about 21.5k with an upside of 24k by early next year. I am buying on down-days and selling on up-days for short term gains. (I am up 29% this year on the HSI, despite having lost my nerve and sold out -for a while- in May/June 09) For the medium term buying A shares through QFII funds seems to be the next step.

3. Commodities. Mining stocks such as Zijin mining etc look good as a buy on down-days, or buying gold at the gold market (if you can transport and store the stuff!).

Hedge your bets, and spread risk. Set your profit and loss targets and exercise those trades:cool:.

Edited for speeling.

[CXChildLabour]

If you ask any CX management, they'd probably guarantee ya the crash is gonna happen soon, hence they need to save up some money for it, i.e. no 13th month.

[126.9]

Grow up, will you!

[Arcla]

Here we go again....:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

[404 Titan]

126.9

Would you like to elaborate on your views of the Elliot Wave theory?:E:p

[EXEZY]

Who are you to tell me to grow up you prat! I can make my own mind up on the validity of the elliot theory. You had better tell half of the captains I've flown with recently to grow up, they all hold stall with EW.

[monster330]

EXEZY

I have followed Elliott wave for a number of years now and found their predictions, especially at the major turns, timely and , importantly, accurate.

The next financial crisis is not about to descend, perse- it never went away.

After stock market tops in 2000 and more recently Oct 2007, the elliott wave practitioners have maintained a course of worldwide asset deflation and economic depression- not just "recesssion". This has come to pass more noticably in some countries than others; US & UK are prime examples.

The market rally worldwide since March 2009 has been a relief rally, or Bear market rally. It is now over according to Elliott Wave International: Expert Market Forecasting using the Elliott Wave Principle (http://www.elliottwave.com/)

The onset of Primary wave 3- DOWN is upon us now and will be devastating in its brutality, ushering in severe depression in many, many countries.

After this wave is over (approx 2 years) a minor relief rally- wave 4- will occur to relieve some of the pain prior to the FINAL wave 5 down.
ONLY THEN will the bear market be over. Elliott wave look for about 2012-2014 before the bear market is done.

Standby for deflation of ALL asset classes worldwide; equities, commodities, real estate, bonds etc.
CASH is king for now.

Hope this helps

PS I bunked out of the P-Fund and went 100% cash end of Sept/start Oct 09.
There is serious s#@t about to happen!

[Arcla]

You heard it here first Gents (on an aviation forum) - The world is about to end.

I'm gonna buy a shovel, dig a hole and stick my head in it. Honestly...

[ArthurBorges]

I don't know if I'm amazed or amused by your posting.

Everything of substance I read says the US is trying to inflate its way out of its debt not just to China but to the entire rest of the world.

The sucre and other new reserve currencies are starting to see the light of day in a bid to ditch the dollar because the Mint's printing presses have been in overdrive since 1970.

Because the USD is the dominant reserve currency and banks need to hold them so clients can pay invoices, that lets the USA print an "IOU" currency that is redeemable against nothing except what the seller chooses to sell: the mention "Silver Certificate" disappeared long ago when it was decided not to let you redeem paper for real wealth, i.e. silver.

When a country makes its currency convertible, as required to join WTO, it agrees to trade its currency freely. Most notably, it undertakes to buy all the dollars anybody chooses to present to a teller window. So whenever Boeing pays the Chinese maker for 757 subassemblies in dollars, the Bank of China has to print as many yuan as the subassembly maker can claim for with the dollars it receives in payment. Those yuan flood the local economy and push up prices, i.e. China suffers inflation. Meanwhile, the Bank of China (BoC) has too many dollars and ends up investing them in T-bonds and T-bills, which are paying very little interest. There are too many because the opportunities for investment in the USA are limited and Chinese consumers will drink only so much Pepsi. So the BoC is sitting on a stack of IOUs that it bought at, say, 8.00 yuan to the dollar and along comes Hillary Clinton to grumble that the yuan is too cheap. To make her happy, BoC should pay only, say, 6.00 for every dollar it buys. But then what does that do when it cashes in its Treasury securities? Well, it had bought the dollars at 8.00 apiece and is now cashing them in at 6.00 apiece.

China is not the only country suffering this game. The Japanese yen was 360 to the dollar in the early 1960s; it is now 120 or so. The Fed pulled the same trick on them for decades. The 1987 crisis erupted when Japanese players failed to renew options on overnight money: the US dollar had suddenly lost its principal prop.

Your curve theory is beautiful and I like the name "Elliot" because it reminds me of someone allegedly bold and honest like Elliot Ness who trimmed a few branches on the mafia tree.

One reason Iraq was attacked was that it decided to sell oil in euro. As more countries find ways to shortcircuit the dollar in their bilateral transactions, the dollar risks going through the floor.

Crumbling empires are dangerous.

Meanwhile, the price of gold continues its upward push.

(But don't invest in gemstones unless they're huge unique pieces: their resale value is 10% to 15% of their retail value.)

[EXEZY]

Well you wouldn't find it in the South China Morning Post would you! 2008 anyone?

[Michael Hunt]

Are these the same Captains who have been so successful in the stockmarket that they are still flying across the Pacific in the middle of the night or checking into crappy hotels for min rest onites and signing contracts to do it for another 10 years.
Yep, I would be taking all that financial advice verbatim. Sounds like they are cleaning up!

[EXEZY]

Uh no, they're young and dynamic.

[boxjockey]

Are these the same Captains who have been so successful in the stockmarket that they are still flying across the Pacific in the middle of the night or checking into crappy hotels for min rest onites and signing contracts to do it for another 10 years.
Yep, I would be taking all that financial advice verbatim. Sounds like they are cleaning up!

WINNER WINNER, CHICKEN DINNER!! The best advice I have ever been given: "When flying with a co-worker, and they give you financial advice, your best move is to do the exact opposite of what they say". It has worked for me, and it can for you too!!!

[oicur12]

"One reason Iraq was attacked was that it decided to sell oil in euro. As more countries find ways to shortcircuit the dollar in their bilateral transactions, the dollar risks going through the floor."

Yep. Iran is also being threatened because of the Kish Bourse.
The unfolding events in the Me have more to do with dollar hegemony than terrorism.

And this is just the start.

[On the beach]

I base my investing on the "Cathay Fuel Hedging Wave".

i.e. When Cathay hedge their fuel at $149, you can bet the market has peaked. :}

On the beach :ok:

[ATPMBA]

She said we entered a Bear market in 2000 and we will enter a Bull market in 2014. In between those years we could have mini bull and bear markets.

[yokebearer]

Elliot wave has been shown to be correct about as often as it is wrong which puts it right up there with the coin toss - but slightly better at building your wealth than the roulette table - don't ask me to justify this - google it for yourself. Seriously - you will find Prechter have been wrong as often as right.

NOBODY can predict the markets. Prime examples are the run up of the dollar last year, and the HKG property market this year - now it seems obvious why it happened - but we did not see it coming. Elliot wave can't either.

Investment is firstly about not losing. If you can avoid loss you already halfway there. That is why we need our Prov fund setup to change - we need to be able to get out of funds much quicker to avoid loss.

Secondly invetment is about following a trend - if its going up - buy it , set a tight stop loss and sell it quick to avoid loss when it turns.

Waay easier than counting Elliot waves.

[junior_man]

I sold all my stocks today. I bought 3 years worth of SPAM and a generator. I am heading for the mountains with all my guns.....

[hongkongfooey]

Yoke, one of the best posts here, IMHO :ok:

The " experts " for instance, tipped AUD parity with the USD, and beyond, last year and look what happened :confused:
Then they tipped the first downward movement was a " blip ", look what happened.
Now the experts are telling us there is another crash on the way, I guess we will wait and see what happens.
The thing about these experts, is that they have massive amounts to gain when there is a crash, because they are the ones with all the spare money to buy cheap shares.

[Thunderbird4]

Buy and read one book; 'Fooled by Randomness' by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
When you have finished, read it again. If you still don't understand, study your Elliot waves closely and good luck!
ps. watch out for swans of a different colour.

[EXEZY]

You believe as a people we have ?no? power! The power to say ?no? | www.tpuc.org (http://tpuc.org/content/you-believe-people-we-have-%E2%80%98no%E2%80%99-power-powe)

[On the beach]

As Warren Buffet so succinctly put it, there are only 2 rules to investment:

Rule 1: Never lose money.

Rule 2: Don't forget Rule 1


On the beach :ok:

[naughty johnny]

EXEZY,
Check your PM's.........

[luvmuhud]

Prechter at least seems to have predicted recent happenings with relative accuracy. Although I'm new to the technical side of investment, EWT seems to have merit. The ebbs and flows of social mood are the drivers of buying and selling, not company fundamentals (although they are highly relevant in their own right). In late Feb 09, 95+% of traders surveyed were bears, and what do you know......we started a steep bull run. Elliott correctly predicted this at the end of Feb, and advised subscribers to cover their shorts.

Now, given the extreme majority of bulls in the market, he's predicting 'it' has run out of steam....let's see what happens over the next few months. Check out this free glimpse of his current bearish outlook....:(

"Black Monday: Ancient History Or Imminent Future?" by EWI, FSO Editorial 10/30/2009 (http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/ewave/2009/1030.html)

lmh

[luvmuhud]

As a side note, I used to listen to all Warren Buffett's musings as gospel, but lately, I fear his patriotism has clouded his judgment somewhat!

YouTube - Warren Buffett is Bullish on America's Future (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtnbC887zbc)


Complete failure to accept his beloved U.S. of A is heading for a rough few decades (possibly centuries!).

lmh

[FlexibleResponse]

There are such wonderful theories out there, such masterful economic sciences, whole economic universities of study and knowledge, Professors of every branch imaginable of economic variation, such fantastic fundamental analysis, such exciting technical analysis, super dooper software analysis programs...and yet, nobody was able to identify and stop a simple house loan scam in the USA that eventually brought the world to its knees...

Have we forgotten that in the long run, the essence of economics, business and therefore investing comes down to the simple relationship between...

Supply and Demand

...no more, no less..?

QED

[luvmuhud]

...and yet, nobody was able to identify and stop a simple house loan scam in the USA that eventually brought the world to its knees...

Outside of the mainstream financial media, there were probably dozens of analysts who predicted the US Subprime crises.....Elliott Wave International was one. Certainly, none of those were able to stop the destruction though. Governments have injected trillions of stimulus to delay the inevitible, and hence we have seen a sharp bear market rally in virtually all markets across the globe since last March. But, the underlying bearish mood is still there...until the deleveraging is allowed to occur on a sovereign scale, the markets won't bottom. I disagree that the world was brought to its knees.......I think that outcome is still in front of us.

Have we forgotten that in the long run, the essence of economics, business and therefore investing comes down to the simple relationship between...

Supply and Demand

...no more, no less..?

I agree that supply and demand ultimately drives the immediate price of an asset, but I don't believe that either side of this equation can be explained by a purely fundamental argument. When the price of oil peaked at $140, it wasn't demand for oil from the end users. Each barrel of oil is traded, on average, 27 times before it reaches the end user...so it is supply and demand within oil futures contracts that caused the spike, not because China needed the oil for its industrial revolution (or any number of other fundamental reasons for the rise).
Another illustration is the Australian property market, which I believe is in the final stages of a financial mania. Spruikers will argue that the reasons for a median house price so far above the average wage is purely supply and demand, which in the strict sense it is, but the demand is not there for the reasons that they will provide. The demand is driven by social mood, and the desire to build wealth through capital gain, or rental yield. As long as houses are being purchased with this reason in mind, and not for the practical purpose of 30 years of shelter, the demand will 'artificially' drive prices higher. This is a normal bull market cycle, but what is occuring 'down there' at the moment, is a mania as a result of extremely low interest rates, low lending standards, and an extreme of social optimism.

So, if using supply and demand to dictate your investment decisions, one must take into account where the demand is coming from, and the timeframe for your 'out'.....as with $140 oil, the 'decline' in demand may come much sooner than you think.

lmh

[Tired_All_The_Time]

Rolling Stone Magazine's Matt Taibbi has written an amazing article which exposes the truth behind the woes that are the American economy.
This article is really worth a read...
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/;kw=[3351,11470]
If the link doesn't work, just google "Rolling Stone Magazine", go to Politics: Wall street's Naked Swindle.
Illuminating!

[FlexibleResponse]

So, if using supply and demand to dictate your investment decisions, one must take into account where the demand is coming from, and the timeframe for your 'out'.....as with $140 oil, the 'decline' in demand may come much sooner than you think.

Precisely!

As with the $140 oil, supply was artificially constrained. Unfortunately for the suppliers, they could not get supply fixing agreements to stick for long periods due to their individual greed. In the longer run, the excess of supply over demand brought the price back to more realistic levels.

With any commodity or service, over the longer term the supply demand equation will always win the day and determine price. But, too many of us get caught up with short term market fashionable beliefs. We don't think far ahead enough to see the real story and macro-trends when formulating our investment strategy.

[Bob Hawke]

All talk about the Bulls n Bears; now what about the chickens, where do they fit into this puzzle?;)

[alvega]

Time to go back in time and do some research. A good starting point would be the creation of the Federal Reserve Act in 1910 (Jeckill Island) and its implementation in Dec. 1913. Similar story with the Bank of England and any other central bank for that matter.

"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes the laws". -Mayer Amschel (Bauer) Rothschild

"I care not what puppet is placed on the throne of England to rule the Empire, ...The man that controls Britain's money supply controls the British Empire. And I control the money supply". -Nathan Mayer (Bauer) Rothschild

"I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated in the hands of a few men.
We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated governments in the world… no longer a government of free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and duress of small groups of dominant men". -President Woodrow Wilson in 1913 after signing the Federal Reserve Act into law.

The crash is coming, this monetary system is finished. Look at Greece. Next on the line will be Portugal followed by Spain, Ireland, the UK (wait for the end of the elections) and then the US. The money printing frenzy, while giving the impression of a recovery will only make it worse. It's just worthless paper. Get rid of it while it's still (artificially) worth something, it won't last much longer. The Elliot Wave theorists and all the other trend manipulators are only there to lure everybody deeper into the money fraud. Trust them at your own peril.

[FlexibleResponse]

"The end of the world is nigh!"

"The world ends tomorrow!"

After a long and fruitful life I am just starting to think that maybe these naysayers have got it wrong....is it possible that I will serve out my last remaining days and not be witness to the end of the world as we know it?

Somehow history seems to record that human beings just get on with business after experiencing some of the most unbelievable events...

I have also observed that some of the best businessmen seem to be totally unencumbered with worries about the dangers of quarks and the Large Hadron Collider.

Perhaps we could help ourselves by considering not what could possibly happen, but what is likely to happen?

In that thought is the realization that we can do absolutely nothing about the consequences of what could possibly happen, but we can benefit greatly by taking advantage of foreseeing what is likely to happen.

[alvega]

Somehow history seems to record that human beings just get on with business after experiencing some of the most unbelievable events...

FlexibleResponse, history didn't begin on year 1AD. Moving back thousands of years you will see many other civilizations reaching extintion after arriving at the peak of their evolution and this is the history we have not learned anything from. We are there now and we are about to fall exactly in the same trap. in my view it is already too late. I hope I'm wrong.

[FlexibleResponse]

Perhaps you may be correct..?