I. M. Esperto
18th Dec 2001, 19:09
The following excellent article appeared in the December 17, 2001, edition of
Aviation Week and Space Technology. The war in Afghanistan seems to be
ushering in a whole new concept of warfare. In the next war, we may only
be spectators. “Weapons and other military systems already under
development will function at increasingly higher levels of complexity and
responsibility – and increasingly without meaningful human intervention.
Humans will not be able to analyze complex situations and respond fast
enough. But some wise philosopher has already predicted the weapons we
will be using two wars from now. His prediction? ---“Rocks”. Ray
Bush Sees Long Future
For Autonomous Weapons
PAUL MANN/WASHINGTON
In an interim assessment of counter-terrorist operations in Afghanistan, President Bush predicts that the U.S. military of the 21st
century will rely increasingly on autonomous weapons, a forecast shared by outside experts.
Preventing mass terror will be the responsibility of Presidents far into the future, and precision air power and unmanned aerial
vehicles (UAVs) are rewriting the rules of combat with every day that passes in the Afghan conflict, Bush said in a speech last
week at The Citadel in Charleston, S.C.
Citing the Predator and Global Hawk UAVs by name, the President asserted that the combination of precision air power, special
forces, local allied forces and real-time intelligence "has never really been used before. The conflict in Afghanistan has taught us
more about the future of our military than a decade of blue ribbon panels and think-tank symposiums."
Before the war began on Oct. 7, skeptics dismissed the Predator "because it did not fit the old ways," Bush said. "Now it is clear
the military does not have enough unmanned vehicles. We're entering an era in which unmanned vehicles of all kinds will take on
greater importance: in space, on land, in the air and at sea."
A new analysis by the U.S. Army War College predicts that weapons and military systems now on the horizon will be so fast,
small and numerous that they will create a battlespace too complex for humans to direct, requiring much more autonomous
weapons. "This is not a consideration for the remote science-fiction future," says the analysis by Army Lt. Col. (ret.) Thomas K.
Adams. "Weapons and other military systems already under development will function at increasingly higher levels of complexity
and responsibility--and increasingly without meaningful human intervention." Adams singled out interlinked communications,
command, control, computers, surveillance and reconnaissance (C4ISR).
In Bush's words, "when all of our military can continuously locate and track moving targets--with surveillance from air and
space--warfare will be truly revolutionized."
The President acknowledged that the need for military transformation emerged years before the events of Sept. 11, but said it had
gained great urgency as a result of them. U.S. forces must be revolutionized even while they are at war, he said, comparing it
with "overhauling an engine while you're going 80 mph. Yet we have no other choice."
Momentum for greater use of UAVs has been building since the mid-1990s, stemming in part from allied operations in the
Balkans. In mid-2000, the Senate Armed Services Committee, led at the time by Sen. John Warner (R-Va.), began a drive to
accelerate the development of unmanned combat systems. Bush, who came to office last January, is building on that foundation.
Acknowledging recent bipartisan appeals from Congress and from independent defense experts to speed up transformation as
well as autonomous technology, Bush sought to reinforce his case that the national security community must liberate itself from
bureaucratic sloth and resistance to change. "Our military culture must reward new thinking, innovation and experimentation," he
told The Citadel audience.
Bush expects the war on terrorism and the fight to prevent proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons of mass
destruction to go on for decades. That being the case, he said, the time had come for Congress to stop micromanaging the
Defense Dept. and for the military services "to sacrifice some of their own pet projects."
He also said the Administration would shore up efforts to strengthen non-proliferation treaties and toughen export controls, but he
did not elaborate.
Arms control lobbyists charge that Bush is undermining the very proliferation constraints he backs by spurning global agreements
that prohibit nuclear explosions, and would enforce compliance with international conventions on biological warfare.
Adams, outlining the implications of transformation, argues that the fundamental development underlying the loss of human control
in combat is automated information systems. The Joint Chiefs of Staff insist that technology can only equip the warrior, not
replace him, Adams noted. But he pointed out that current computers have not even begun to approach their theoretical limits.
The time is approaching, therefore, when the autonomous weapons Bush speaks about will become de facto "intelligence agents,"
Adams predicts. They will search out and analyze targets, assist in attack decisions, select and dispense munitions and report the
results. The difference between machines that can assist in attack decisions and those that can decide on their own "is a matter of
programming."
A molecular computer with the processing power of 100 personal computers might be the size of a grain of salt.
Adams observes, "The implications are almost unimaginable--cheap, ubiquitous supercomputing, and unlimited memory capacity in
devices so small that they are on the scale of insects."
© December 17, 2001 The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc.
Correspondence | Who's Where | Market Focus | Industry Outlook
Airline Outlook | Aerobyte | Washington Outlook
Inside Business Aviation | Inside Avionics
Book Reviews | Aerospace Calendar
Back to Top
Aviation Week and Space Technology. The war in Afghanistan seems to be
ushering in a whole new concept of warfare. In the next war, we may only
be spectators. “Weapons and other military systems already under
development will function at increasingly higher levels of complexity and
responsibility – and increasingly without meaningful human intervention.
Humans will not be able to analyze complex situations and respond fast
enough. But some wise philosopher has already predicted the weapons we
will be using two wars from now. His prediction? ---“Rocks”. Ray
Bush Sees Long Future
For Autonomous Weapons
PAUL MANN/WASHINGTON
In an interim assessment of counter-terrorist operations in Afghanistan, President Bush predicts that the U.S. military of the 21st
century will rely increasingly on autonomous weapons, a forecast shared by outside experts.
Preventing mass terror will be the responsibility of Presidents far into the future, and precision air power and unmanned aerial
vehicles (UAVs) are rewriting the rules of combat with every day that passes in the Afghan conflict, Bush said in a speech last
week at The Citadel in Charleston, S.C.
Citing the Predator and Global Hawk UAVs by name, the President asserted that the combination of precision air power, special
forces, local allied forces and real-time intelligence "has never really been used before. The conflict in Afghanistan has taught us
more about the future of our military than a decade of blue ribbon panels and think-tank symposiums."
Before the war began on Oct. 7, skeptics dismissed the Predator "because it did not fit the old ways," Bush said. "Now it is clear
the military does not have enough unmanned vehicles. We're entering an era in which unmanned vehicles of all kinds will take on
greater importance: in space, on land, in the air and at sea."
A new analysis by the U.S. Army War College predicts that weapons and military systems now on the horizon will be so fast,
small and numerous that they will create a battlespace too complex for humans to direct, requiring much more autonomous
weapons. "This is not a consideration for the remote science-fiction future," says the analysis by Army Lt. Col. (ret.) Thomas K.
Adams. "Weapons and other military systems already under development will function at increasingly higher levels of complexity
and responsibility--and increasingly without meaningful human intervention." Adams singled out interlinked communications,
command, control, computers, surveillance and reconnaissance (C4ISR).
In Bush's words, "when all of our military can continuously locate and track moving targets--with surveillance from air and
space--warfare will be truly revolutionized."
The President acknowledged that the need for military transformation emerged years before the events of Sept. 11, but said it had
gained great urgency as a result of them. U.S. forces must be revolutionized even while they are at war, he said, comparing it
with "overhauling an engine while you're going 80 mph. Yet we have no other choice."
Momentum for greater use of UAVs has been building since the mid-1990s, stemming in part from allied operations in the
Balkans. In mid-2000, the Senate Armed Services Committee, led at the time by Sen. John Warner (R-Va.), began a drive to
accelerate the development of unmanned combat systems. Bush, who came to office last January, is building on that foundation.
Acknowledging recent bipartisan appeals from Congress and from independent defense experts to speed up transformation as
well as autonomous technology, Bush sought to reinforce his case that the national security community must liberate itself from
bureaucratic sloth and resistance to change. "Our military culture must reward new thinking, innovation and experimentation," he
told The Citadel audience.
Bush expects the war on terrorism and the fight to prevent proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons of mass
destruction to go on for decades. That being the case, he said, the time had come for Congress to stop micromanaging the
Defense Dept. and for the military services "to sacrifice some of their own pet projects."
He also said the Administration would shore up efforts to strengthen non-proliferation treaties and toughen export controls, but he
did not elaborate.
Arms control lobbyists charge that Bush is undermining the very proliferation constraints he backs by spurning global agreements
that prohibit nuclear explosions, and would enforce compliance with international conventions on biological warfare.
Adams, outlining the implications of transformation, argues that the fundamental development underlying the loss of human control
in combat is automated information systems. The Joint Chiefs of Staff insist that technology can only equip the warrior, not
replace him, Adams noted. But he pointed out that current computers have not even begun to approach their theoretical limits.
The time is approaching, therefore, when the autonomous weapons Bush speaks about will become de facto "intelligence agents,"
Adams predicts. They will search out and analyze targets, assist in attack decisions, select and dispense munitions and report the
results. The difference between machines that can assist in attack decisions and those that can decide on their own "is a matter of
programming."
A molecular computer with the processing power of 100 personal computers might be the size of a grain of salt.
Adams observes, "The implications are almost unimaginable--cheap, ubiquitous supercomputing, and unlimited memory capacity in
devices so small that they are on the scale of insects."
© December 17, 2001 The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc.
Correspondence | Who's Where | Market Focus | Industry Outlook
Airline Outlook | Aerobyte | Washington Outlook
Inside Business Aviation | Inside Avionics
Book Reviews | Aerospace Calendar
Back to Top