Industry in dire straits?

[coke drinker]

I know the whole cyclic thing we often talk about in this industry...but this looks like a very, very low point in Australian aviation history.

-G.A. jobs completely evaporated.
-Only jobs being advertised for CFI/CP
-Red Rat (allegedly) putting staff on two weeks paid work/two weeks forced long service leave schedule
-Red Rat unlikely to recruit for at least two more years
-G.A. businesses putting people off
-G.A. businesses going bankrupt
-Airport owners squeezing every last $ from everyone
-International airline markets drying up surely leading to an inevitable downturn in foreign students.

The question is, can we recover? I doubt there will ever be a boom, but how much of our industry will die off whilst the world fights of depression?

[Dunnza]

We have just picked up two additional contracts and moving from smaller aircraft to larger aircraft.

We still have daily requests for the charter of our aircraft and I'm on about taking additional pilots to crew the shortfall...

It's not all doom and gloom out there, but I admit that its getting very quite.

[Krazy]

We still have daily requests for the charter of our aircraft and I'm on about taking additional pilots to crew the shortfall...

So..... what sort of experience may you be looking for in these pilots? ;-)

[Wanderin_dave]

Accordin to another thread the positions appear to have been filled :E

[Darkrampage]

Hopefully by the time I finish my degree its starting to pick up again. My main worry is because the G.A is drying up its going to be hard to get started (I'm not one of those who think they can walk straight into Qantas).

[Di_Vosh]

The industry is in dire straights if you think it is. :(

Or... the industry still has opportunities open despite the GFC :ooh:. It's up to you.

Coke Drinker, if I may...

-G.A. jobs completely evaporated.

I've got plenty of mates still up north who are getting jobs. Their experience ranges from 300 - 3000 hours.

-Only jobs being advertised for CFI/CP

I'm assuming you're looking at the AFAP website. Ads from the 17th and 23rd of May were for junior and mid level experience. What you've got to remember regarding the AFAP website is that operators often advertise only if there's no-one to hand (i.e. CV's on the desk, pilots working at the local bar, etc.).

The old saying there holds true: "you'll never know if you never go". :cool:

-Red Rat (allegedly) putting staff on two weeks paid work/two weeks forced long service leave schedule

People at the Link are going on leave to reduce accumulated leave. We're still working at a decent tempo. I can't speak for Mainline but I've not heard that one! AFAIK, they're trying to prevent redundancies because they expect a resurgence soon. JQ crews are still working hard as ever.

-Red Rat unlikely to recruit for at least two more years

Who knows? Unlikely, IMHO, as no-one can predict the situation in two years. Think about it: This time last year, no-one was predicting the GFC!
JQ are recruiting and will be for the rest of the year.

-G.A. businesses putting people off

Business as usual

-G.A. businesses going bankrupt

Business as usual

Note for the above two: GA business are notorious for being badly run. The reasons for this should be obvious. If it was run well during a boom time, it should be able to run well during the not so good times.

-Airport owners squeezing every last $ from everyone-

Business as usual. Nothing new about this.

International airline markets drying up surely leading to an inevitable downturn in foreign students.

Possibly true, but it will be a downturn and not a complete stop.



IIRC, from 2002 right through to 2006, weeks would go by without seeing a new job on the AFAP website, and people would go up north expecting to bartend or stack shelves for at least 6 months before they got a look-in at flying a single. MB/PJT/BK instructors would all get paid casual rates for flying hours only, and had to do other work to make ends meet. Very few people would get a job with Rex or the link with less than 5000 hours, and that would almost certainly include turbine time.

We've a long way to go before we get back to those days, IMHO!

I started flying almost 8 years ago, and at 38 I was told I was nuts! As little as 3 years ago I had people on Prune telling me that an airline was out of the question and that I should consider myself lucky to be flying a Chieftain! If I believed any of them, then their predictions may well have turned out correct.

It's all up to you. If you listen to doom and gloom, or spread it, it will eventually affect you, and your predictions could well work out to be true (for you!).

Stay positive, have a plan, and be prepared for any opportunity that comes your way! :ok:

DIVOSH

[Toluene Diisocyanate]

Who is the RED rat?:ugh:

[Towering Q]

Never did understand that one, always looked very white to me.

[ZappBrannigan]

Di Vosh, you've pretty much summed up my understanding of the state of the industry, from working in GA and talking at length to friends at QLink and JQ. I hear a lot of doom and gloom being spread around the industry now - much of it probably perpetuated through means such as this site - but haven't seen a large amount of evidence that it's nearly as bad as some like to say it is.

This may be me trying to convince myself that an airline job won't be harder to find than hen's teeth in the next few years - but I am very confident we'll see some difficult conditions over the next year or two, followed by a large rebound. Again, everyone I speak to at the airlines that has their head screwed on correctly tends to agree with this. If we look at the longer term picture - IATA is predicting a massive increase in world air traffic over the next 15 or so years - and we don't have too many people willing to fork out the tens of thousands required to get trained to CPL/ATPL level right now. Add some other factors like retiring pilots to this equation - I think the stage is set for some good growth in the medium term, perhaps another boom. I'm definitely not getting all depressed about anything like some.

[VH-XXX]

You must have your head in the sand if you think that !

[ZappBrannigan]

I probably do. But everything is so opinion-based, from people who think there'll be zero jobs for the next decade, to people who think this'll last 6 months then there will be more jobs than ever. I've honestly stopped listening to most of it. I certainly haven't seen any evidence of the industry grinding to a halt at the GA level.

[Jabawocky]

Red Rat came from the old days of the skinny red roo on a white tail I believe. Have to ask some of the old timers.....errr sorry our more mature ppruners for a definitive story, but it was from say the 707 era I think.

Of course its white now, but why change the name!

[Tempo]

QF are not forcing anyone on half pay LSL. Applications for Flexi-Lines/half pay LSL and LWP are encouraged but certainly not forced.

[Torres]

How can our industry and economy be in dire straits when we have the world's greatest business mind (http://www.themessagegroup.com.au/last-nights-news.php?title=20090611-Kevin-Rudd_create.html) running the country?

:confused:

[RadioSaigon]

Yeah VH-XXX, all these people must have their heads stuck in the sand too, just like ZappBrannigan, Dunnza and others...


An Australian-owned start-up, Pacific Wings, is seeking unlimited capacity for its proposed trans-Tasman flights.
The Australian International Air Services Commission (IASC) said in a statement that Pacific Wings has applied for the traffic rights to New Zealand and New Caledonia. In an application to the IASC on Tuesday, Pacific Wings said it wanted unlimited capacity for Australia-New Zealand services and allocation for Australia-New Caledonia services, the Air Transport Intelligence news service reported.



You can find the full report here (http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/2492455/Aussie-start-up-eyes-trans-Tasman-flights).


Strange isn't it, that there are so many short-sighted people apparently willing to sink copious amounts of money into an industry teetering on the brink of impending inevitable doom...


As others have said, it strikes me as being business as usual, for the now at least. Any business that can survive these current conditions -some apparently even managing to expand their services- would appear to me at least, to be in a relatively good position. Go hard people; good luck.


This GFC is in large part a manifestation of the media hype that surrounds it all, and peoples perceptions and reactions to that over-blown nonsense they are bombarded with daily. You can choose (to a greater or lesser extent) whether you participate or not. If you choose to perceive the current conditions as the death-knell of aviation, then so will it be -for you. If however you see it as an opportunity, then so again will it be. You might have to work a little harder or think a little laterally, but if you are prepared to put the effort in, in all likelihood you'll reap the rewards.



Speaking personally I'm doing it a little tough right at the minute -I haven't worked in 7 weeks, but do you think I've given up? Not in your bloody dreams. The govt isn't interested in helping me out, so I have to do it on my own -and I will.


If you want this GFC to be the hardest thing you've ever faced, it will be. If you want it to be the opportunity that leads to the break you've been searching for, it can be that too. Don't listen to the nay-sayers and doom-and-gloom merchants, get off your arse and have a go!

[43Inches]

The only problem with the optimistic view that the economy will rebound is that even now the price of oil is steadily climbing back up again. This in the face of contracting world economies. A sharp rebound will see the same speculators start to buy up oil again especially at the lowered production rates. $140+ a barrel for oil was killing aviation faster than the GFC.