Merged: Is the worst of the Global Financial Crisis behind us?

[konstantin]

Not sure if Ian Gordon has been mentioned in this forum previously, but go to "longwavegroup.com", then SPECIAL EDITIONS and have a read of "Dow 1000 is not a silly number".

Doom and gloom, I know, but this guy saw the GFC coming - just saying...

[4PW's]

And no-one is even watching...

In about 10 months time, people will again ask 'why did no-one see that coming?'

[Mr. Hat]

Gotta wonder if the likes of 4PW is right given the last 7 days on the markets

Bloodbath on share markets | News.com.au (http://www.news.com.au/business/bloodbath-on-share-markets/story-e6frfm30-1225827351938)

[4PW's]

Ok. I'm on a mission here. Big deal going on tomorrow, but this is a five minute window in which I'm having a break. So I'm reviewing data, writing and sending. I think of and quickly click onto this chat site, and yeah, I'm popping one off.

Generally hunkered down on the financial front, so no drama there. But let me put it to you this way: think of an avalanche. The markets are one, and their roll downhill has started. It will gather pace very quickly, with far more speed and devastation that what we went through in '08.

Gold? Laughable. China? Same. Any and all equities? Get ready to burn your scrips. Short a financial product? Can you see the short selling bans on the horizon? I can. Along with potential counter-party risk where the system is overloaded, and collapses.

This is beyond most people's awareness, which is fine.

I wouldn't rag on my son for not knowing w.t.f. about getting an airplane prepped for flight; started without burning the hot section; taxiing without ending up in the rhubarb; knowing HOW to rotate, or when; not getting lost at night on the way from, say, Singapore to London.

That's because he's 17 and he does not know jack **** about flying airplanes, or about markets, how they work, what drives them and how to profit (and limit losses) from them. I wouldn't rag on him for that.

Land, art, collectibles, commodities (talk to me about copper, i dare you), bonds, stocks; toast. Burnt bloody toast mate. Sorry, but if you can't fly an airplane you shouldn't be in the cockpit. Same goes for financial products. If you DON'T understand them, you should be in cash. If you DO understand them, you would be.

This is NOT pessimism. It's about not having faith in my son's ability to pole a whale all the way to London. It's about knowing why and when an avalanche is about to roll, and getting the phuck out of the way.

But hey, what would I know.

[bushy]

I wish there were more posters on here with the literary skills that you have demonstrated.
I will not comment on the wisdom or otherwise of your messages, but I thoroughly enjoyed reading your posts.

[Iron Bar]

I agree, most insightful. I just hope you're not entirly correct!!! An interesting decision facing the EU re Greece, Spain and Portugal. How this instability will "mesh" with north America markets . . . . . . . The trillion dollar question???

[Naked_recommiting]

1. Maintain a long term appreciation
2. Invest in what you know
3. Largely invest the money you've aquired by living within your means

There. Simple. No requirement for shock headlines, doomsday quotes or 'a little bit fancy' grammar.

4. Avoid predicting currencies and forecasting index levels on public forums - you look like an arse.

[Arnold E]

Looking at the Aussie $ today, looks like 4RW's knows some stuff:{

[boocs]

Naked,

If you are talking about long term appreciation, I would suggest the year 2018 onwards if you are serious.

Check this out (yes again)... HS Dent | Economic Research, Trends, Forecast, Asset Protection (http://www.hsdent.com/)

b.

[ferris]

Arnold, if you look at the history of 4PWs exchange rate predictions, he isn't even square yet. The only thing in his favour (and which has me now spooked) is that large financial houses, banks etc -see financial rags- are predicting that the AUD will hit parity with the USD this year. As soon as a lot of economists all start pointing in one direction, it's time to run in the other.

Bushy- he may be eloquent, but it's just a case of baffling with bull****. His reasoning is bizarre (to be kind).

As for the rest; naked-recommiting's post gets the "OUTSTANDING" award. Market ructions (even large ones) are buying opportunities- not signs that the market is finished.

[fire wall]

Source is Bill Evans , senior westpac economist
guest speaker at a lunch in bne last week
Large financial houses / banks predicting aud to drop to low 80's for near term and then rise to mid 90's in 4th qtr.

Ferris, the English command criticized the Australian troops at Gallipoli, passing negative comment whilst hunkered down in their bunkers.
I cannot help but draw a parallel to your critiques ..... or you could state YOUR forecast for the aussie shingle and be held to account for your accuracy.

Nah, easier to provide black commentary from the sidelines eh ? (to be kind...sic)

[ferris]

Firewall- more than happy to get you up to speed, since you are too lazy to read the thread.
As previously stated, the reason for the AUDs apparent bouyancy is the amount of quantitive easing being undertaken by the yanks. They are printing money hand over fist, putting record amounts to market in an avalanche of issue. Very, very hard for the USD to appreciate in those circumstances.

As to 4PWs ideas about the USD strengthening due to increased demand "because the world's debt is denominated in USD".........
Let's say that a country has to buy some stuff, and the person that they trade with wants oranges as payment. We go to the market, and find that 1 AUD buys one orange. We borrow an orange, and exchange it for the goods. At some time in the future, we will have to buy an orange, plus another orange as interest, and give those two oranges back to the party we borrowed them from. In the mean time, the orange grower (paying no heed to demand) dumps crates and crates of oranges on the market. When our loan falls due, we go to the market and find 1 AUD buys 4 oranges. We repay the loan of an orange, plus the interest of an orange, and expend only .50 AU cents.
Is the fault in his logic evident? The market is influenced by many factors- not just debt. In the present circumstances, the supply of money is large, so large that the market cannot absorb it (to the point that one arm of the US govt is buying treasuries issued by another, in order to prevent a collapse in value).

As far as my personal forcast for currencies- see naked-recommiting's post.

[fire wall]

Ferris, lazy is not a term I would imagine those that know me would use. Have you ever thought you come across a bit punchy? Is this how you conduct yourself when discussing face to face?
Having re-read the entire thread I find the only time you have stated any direction is on page 9 :
" I set up a hedge fund because I work overseas and thought the USD had to tank, given the amount of money they were/are printing. Yet even the RBA seemed to think that .84 was the top. Does have me worried (and detracting from my desire to continue earning USD!)."

Apart from above, you loosely tie your argument to that of "Chimbu" and "naked" but at no time do you have the courage of your convictions to state a numerical value in aud v usd terms. Yet you feel free to use strong language against those who hold a contrary view and it is to this that I make comment. At no time did I state that that I agreed with 4PW's views, (I too earn in a currency that is pegged to the usd and concur with the general argument re usd depreciation) but I do agree with his right to espouse them without belittling cheap shots for which you have become known.

ps. the "oranges" scenario is a very well explained analogy and one to which I agree.

[ferris]

Firewall. A bit "punchy". It's an internet forum, for god's sake! :rolleyes:

As to but at no time do you have the courage of your convictions to state a numerical value in aud v usd terms. What part about my fervently agreeing with 4. Avoid predicting currencies and forecasting index levels on public forums - you look like an arse. don't you understand? You said it yourself- I stated what direction I thought things would go.
4PWs made some bare posts claiming the USD was entering a bull-run (6 months ago). He was challenged on that. In the last few days, he has put up his reasoning. I believe I have answered that. Methinks- a little too precious, Firewall? Furthermore, what has actually happened, both in the currency and other markets over the life of this thread, would tend to bear out that 4PWs has no idea. As to what will happen in the future- see again naked's post. The courage of my convictions will be borne out in the real world- via my hedge fund.

[Foie gras]

BJ knows WTF is happening.
Countries on the verge of default!
Once again he's been told to pull his head in.

The title of this subject has got to change.
"The Worst of the Global Financial Crisis is in front of us."

Forget currency X, forget profiteering.
Now's the time to preserve your wealth.

Get yourself out of debt.

[Gnadenburg]

Get yourself out of debt?

Debt can be very good if it generates income streams.

Get yourself out of debt and into cash? What if we end up in an high inflation environment?

[Naked_recommiting]

If you are talking about long term appreciation, I would suggest the year 2018 onwards if you are serious.

I am serious. 2018 is indeed long term. I aim +10 years.

Check this out (yes again)... HS Dent | Economic Research, Trends, Forecast, Asset Protection (http://www.hsdent.com/)

Arghhh.. the Dent method. Economic forecasting based on demographics and trends. I did check it out (yes again). Unfortunately, unless you base investment decisions purely on our US lead, then I'd prefer to base my research and time on Australian soil (and whats in it). The senior looking gentlemen staring through a telescope across the desert is reassuring however - perhaps he is looking to Australia and this thread.

Here is a few loosely demographic truths about Australia (this thread is in the DG&P right?)
- Significant populations increase and long term trend (births and immigration). More people, more housing, food and services required.
- Resource rich soil.

5. Go Australia

Perhaps I could call this the 'Naked Method'. Would get more google hits than Dent.

[breakfastburrito]

What if we end up in an high inflation environment?
Gnad's that is the trillion dollar question. Japanese style (debt) deflation or (money printing) hyperinflation. Cogent arguments can be made for both scenarios, but it can only go one way, a binary choice. Every investor needs to take a side. There is no ability to sit on the fence.
Having said that, if you pick (incorrectly) hyperinflation & use leverage, there is a much larger risk of going bust in a deflationary environment that having parked cash in an inflationary world.

[Mr. Hat]

Hiring for some airlines is reaching fever pitch again...and

Global Financial Crisis is 'over' - Treasury boss Ken Henry | News.com.au (http://www.news.com.au/business/gfc-is-over-treasury-boss-ken-henry/story-e6frfm1i-1225829533800)

[4PW's]

Recall what Gordon Brown said in July 2007.

Ken's words are a 'top'.

[Aiation Professiona]

Phil Williams - economist who picked the Global Financial Crisis 6
months before it happened - interviewed this week on ABC radio.

http://blogs.abc.net.au/files/the-coming-deflation---phil-williams-1.mp3

[breakfastburrito]

As for the rest of the world, it is far worse than it looks.

Last night the Societe Generale economics research team put out a frightening estimate of the real liabilities of western governments – including off balance sheet debts.

In every case the off-balance sheet numbers – including unfunded pension fund liabilities – dwarf the official debt position.

Greece is by far the worst because of what Otmar Issing, the German former chief economist of the European Central Bank, described yesterday as “one of the most luxurious pension systems in the world”. Its total net liabilities are about 800 per cent of GDP – eight times the official position.

Here are Soc Gen’s figures for the others (per cent of GDP): US 550, UK 400, Germany 400, France 550, Italy 350 and Spain 250.

In other words, the entire western world is insolvent and each country is facing its own day of reckoning – starting, appropriately enough, in Greece, the place where western civilization itself began.
Alan Kohler (http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/The-great-reckoning-begins-pd20100212-2KRNA?opendocument&src=rss)

[Foie gras]

Av. Prof. Spot on!
"History Repeats Itself"

[prospector]

Subject: So what have we learned in 2,064 years ?


The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance."
- Cicero - 55 BC


Evidently nothing

[Wellhung Unit]

4PW's....I'm with you brother, I also think the worst is yet to come, but I am interested in why or at least what makes you think it will be this week..?

Cash will soon be king....

[Naked_recommiting]

PS Wow, emoticons. Where have I been?

Not only are there emoticons, you can do quotes like this.

I may be wrong. Often I am.

I'm with you brother

See. Even out of context.

I'm not here to win a popularity contest

No-one is on a public forum I hope. Would make for some impressive dinner table conversation however. The meal would want to impress.

Most people aim to provide a balanced point of view - that is one that has foundation and reason. It doesnt mean its right, just credible. I wasn't having a go at you 4's, but seeing you disaprove of my attire I took the time reread your posts/predictions - you must be well and truly down at the moment, should you be putting $ towards your predictions.

See point 4.

[Gnadenburg]

I think, for the medium term anyway, China's attempt to contain asset bubbles will be good for the Australian economy. Making recovery more sustainable.

Australia is beautifully positioned in Asia. I've been long on the $AUD on pprune when the doomsayers were banging on of under 50 cents 12-18 months ago. Every chance I had in the last 12+ months I structured debt or bought the Aussie under 75 cents. And reversed, squared up and profited.

If you are long on Asian growth go long on the Aussie. And of course it is vulnerable to any double dip scenario. Which is very hard to hedge against as a PAYE citizen of Australia.

Cash is not King. Cash flow is king. I see guys cash out of the markets or real estate and then do nothing. Re-entering the market at dubious times. Whereas guys with a lot of cash flow tend to build on their income streams and have more creative nouse or financial fluency.

[ferris]

The Aussie is pretty much set to collapse this coming week. I may be wrong. Often I am. Currently at .9080
So much for the collapse. :rolleyes: Now what was that comment about making predictions, and looking like an arse? Anyone else still on the 4PW's bandwagon?*

My sources tell me that despite the increasing carry trade, everyone trying to keep ahead of the game may begin to unwind soon. The Fed is starting to look at it's quantitative easing, which to me is the one big impediment to the USD improving against the aussie. Might be time to take a step back and watch for a bit. Forget about the alleged 'tightening'- a bit of slight of hand to try and stoke confidence.
Once again, I am getting mixed messages from oz- some saying things are grim, job losses etc, others (and the official unemployment numbers etc) saying the opposite. What do others 'feel'?

*So long and thanks for all the fish, 4PW's

[mikk_13]

Currently at .9080
So much for the collapse. Now what was that comment about making predictions, and looking like an arse? Anyone else still on the 4PW's bandwagon?*

My sources tell me that despite the increasing carry trade, everyone trying to keep ahead of the game may begin to unwind soon. The Fed is starting to look at it's quantitative easing, which to me is the one big impediment to the USD improving against the aussie. Might be time to take a step back and watch for a bit. Forget about the alleged 'tightening'- a bit of slight of hand to try and stoke confidence.
Once again, I am getting mixed messages from oz- some saying things are grim, job losses etc, others (and the official unemployment numbers etc) saying the opposite. What do others 'feel'?


Tsk I don't think the cards will fall this way. Best be well away from the US dollar.
I think in the next couple of months or so the focus will move up the food chain. First it was greece, spain, ireland with their debt. Now it seems to be questions about the Uk. Soon it will be the big daddy, the USA.

If it come to pass that the focus increases on the US gov debt, which is HUGE, I think the US treasury's will be worthless. So if this happens, the cash will run out for the US government.

So what happens next you ask. They have 2 choices. They can shut down the social system, eg health care, pensions, everything, and pay down the debt by cutting spending, or they can print money (monetize the debt). You have to remember that the US gov ha huge unfunded liabilities, eg social care, freddie and fanny.

Seeing what they have done so far, I think when everyone stops buying the US debt as they know they will never pay it back, there is a good chance Benny will roll out the printing press and destroy the US dollar.

When this occurs, I think there will be a flood to every other currency that is stable, eg AU, CAD, YEN, EUR. There will be a good chance that the US dollar will be replaced as the global currency and I think most liukely this will be the Euro, as nobody wants the chinese to control the markets.

[...still single]

Seeing what they have done so far, I think when everyone stops buying the US debt as they know they will never pay it back, there is a good chance Benny will roll out the printing press and destroy the US dollar.

When this occurs, I think there will be a flood to every other currency that is stable, eg AU, CAD, YEN, EUR. There will be a good chance that the US dollar will be replaced as the global currency and I think most liukely this will be the Euro, as nobody wants the chinese to control the markets.


Yes, the US is doing all that. But, when it comes to cooking the books, the EU are the reigning champions and it is starting to unravel on the Continent. Some are predicting the Euro will see parity with the US$. Not because of US$ strength, but because of a hollow Euro.

[Sunstar320]

The next headache looks like fuel prices. Oil has been rising steadily and now sits $US93.

Fuel bill woe for Australian airlines

AUSTRALIA'S airlines have fuel prices on close watch, with a new surge to a 13-month high stoking concerns about the long-awaited recovery. Jet kerosene has reached $US92.95 a barrel, just short of the trigger point at which Qantas and Virgin Blue are hedged until June 30.
"If $US90-plus is the launch point for further rises it will make the recovery that much harder," aviation analyst Peter Harbison told the Herald Sun yesterday.
Mr Harbison, head of the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation, said Qantas and Virgin Blue were in a no-win situation if the surge continued.
They would have to carry any increase on their books for now because hiking ticket prices or re-introducing an oil surcharge would drive customers to competitors, he said.
However, ticket prices must rise eventually because long-haul fares are not viable at existing levels.
In February, when jet kerosene was $US78.55 a barrel, Qantas head Alan Joyce predicted a $200 million rise this year in the airline's fuel bill.
Qantas then had hedged 76 per cent of its second-half fuel needs at $US94 a barrel -- just $US1.05 above the price of jet kerosene now on the Singapore market, which sets the benchmark for fuel bought by airlines operating in the Asia-Pacific region.
Virgin Blue is similarly threatened if prices continue to rise. It has hedged only 56 per cent of the fuel it needs to June at $US97 a barrel.
Mr Harbison told the Herald Sun yesterday that most of the airlines that survived the industry slump of the past year did so only because of the falling price of fuel.
An example was Air New Zealand, which posted a $NZ84 million profit after its fuel costs fell by $NZ335 million.
The past week's $US3 rise in jet kerosene prices has been attributed to encouraging reports about US economic growth and increased consumption in Asia.
US newspapers yesterday reported that oil demand could soar, causing prices to follow suit, once the American economy recovers.
Other factors could include higher Chinese demand, any escalation of tension between the West and Iran and speculation.
news.com.au

[PPRuNeUser0161]

Sunstar 320
So why is it that the rise in fuel price will affect QF,JQ and VB more than TR.
SN

[Thumbs up]

Bookings for Jetstar in May + June down to levels where (rumoured) there is to be the parking of 11-17 airframes.

Pilots on forced leave on both types and applications for leave without pay invited.

Two months ago the word was 140 new pilots this year...... not sure about that one now !.

Interestingly none of this applies to CC.

[PPRuNeUser0161]

I have one thing to say-INTEREST RATES and TIGER!
SN

[The Green Goblin]

*Cough bullshiiit:D

[Gnadenburg]

I was thinking of squaring up profits on the $AUD. In my experience, it tends to overshoot, so I may be premature. But there is nothing worse than waking up one day and your profits gone due holding out for a possible few cents rise in a world of risk. I'll miss paying $1000AUD interest per month, per million dollars of debt.

Anyone with any references to hedges against Chinese prosperity in the coming years?

[AllInGoodTime]

Here are some quotes from economic forecaster Harry S. Dent, Jr. Maybe it is not over yet!!

• The economy appears to recover from the subprime crisis and minor recession by mid-to-late 2009 "the calm before the real storm."

• Stock prices start to crash again between mid-to-late 2009 into late 2010, and likely finally bottom around mid 2012-between Dow 3,800 and 4,500.

• The economy enters a deeper depression between mid 2010 and early 2011, likely extending off and on into late 2012 or mid 2013.

• Asian markets may bottom by late 2010, along with health care, and be the first great buy opportunities in stocks.

• The next broad-based global bull market from 2020-2023 into 2035-2036.


Not my quotes, but I think this guy has shown some accuracy in the past.

[Jay & Silent Bob]

Here are some quotes from economic forecaster Harry S. Dent, Jr. Maybe it is not over yet!!

Not my quotes, but I think this guy has shown some accuracy in the past.
Is that the same Harry Dent that predicated in 1999 that the dow would hit 40,000 by 2010?

[Gnadenburg]

Most of the doomsayers in this thread have remarkably similar opinions to Harry S Dent. What's with pilots and Harry S Dent?

[breakfastburrito]

Gnad, here's something else to consider, How to Profit From the Coming Aussie Property Crash and Banking Crisis (http://www.scribd.com/doc/29520921/How-to-Profit-From-the-Coming-Aussie-Property-Crash-and-Banking-Crisis).

[boocs]

an informative read, thanks B.Burrito!!

b.

[Gnadenburg]

Don't waste the download folks....

"How to profit from the coming Aussie property crash and banking crisis..."

Short the banks and bet against the Aussie dollar. Gee. What a revelation!

I've just finished inspecting my residential portfolio over the last week. Which I am thankful I didn't flog off as per pprune advice. It must be up 100% + on where they said it would be! Anyways, in two of the properties, there are issues with sub-leasing. One terrace has been turned into a 14 room Chinese boarding house without my permission. Out on their asses they go. And that article says there is no shortage of accommodation in Oz?

[breakfastburrito]

Gnadenburg, yep, you've convinced me it's all blue sky, bullet dodged, mission accomplished, crisis averted full steam ahead, leverage up.

Supposedly the genius of the capitalist system is it's Darwinian process where individuals (as as opposed to governments) place all sorts of bets about future outcomes. Some will live, some will die.

Feel free to gloat all you like when you have your 100% profit sitting in a bank account. Until then, it's just piss talk.

For a bit of light reading try this review of Debt & Delusion (http://www.goldeagle.com/gold_digest_04/blumen081204.html) by Peter Warburton, who in 1999 picked that there was a massive financial crisis likely. I look forward to you dismissal of his arguments with logic, skill & wit.

[Gnadenburg]

Don't be so sensitive. It's just a crap report.

For the last 18 months or so, I've just given examples from people I know who are big owners of commercial or residential holdings. Street talk so to speak. What seems to be happening as opposed to some spin doctor with a statistic.

I'm just saying, this last week, I have had serious issues with sub-leasing in prime residential areas. Why would you sell BTW? I am going to test these sub-leasers with a 25% rent hike. Yield is cash in the bank too.

I'll read your latest link.....

[hongkongfooey]

All you blokes should go and sell everything and put it on black ( or red ), you probably have a better chance of increasing your wealth as you do listening to all these hacks that repeatedly get it wrong.
( AND, as I have mentioned many times, stand to make significant profits by manipulating the market, a bit like Rivkin but on a much larger scale )

Fooey out

[Foie gras]

"Leggja 30 milliærðir
€uro i SÝPPELKASSIN ÍslenÞska
ámbasaÐins I nátt, og vi skrür af vulkÁnín!

Ekki ringja pólísín!"


Translation: Leave €30 billion in a plastic bag at
the Iceland Embassy tonight and we'll
switch off the volcano.

[Gnadenburg]

Gee. Capital city prices up 20% in Australia by the end of March. Should have sold out when the pprune doomsayers said to 18 months ago.

Where are those guys? Did they sell up and move to Broadmeadows?

My strategy now is milking yield, debt reduction and having a think about China. And 09 Bordeaux of course.

[Section28- BE]

Below ex Bloomberg via the SMH site-


'Act two' of crisis begins: Soros
June 11, 2010 - 9:42AM

Billionaire investor George Soros says ''we have just entered Act II'' of the crisis as Europe’s fiscal woes worsen and governments are pressured to curb budget deficits that may push the global economy back into recession.
''The collapse of the financial system as we know it is real, and the crisis is far from over,'' Mr Soros said at a conference in Vienna. ''Indeed, we have just entered Act II of the drama.''
Click here for the full speech (http://www.smh.com.au/business/we-have-just-entered-act-ii-of-the-drama-20100611-y1rs.html)
Mr Soros, 79, said the current situation in the world economy is ''eerily'' reminiscent of the 1930s with governments under pressure to narrow their budget deficits at a time when the economic recovery is weak.
Concern that Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis may spread sent the euro to a four-year low against the dollar on June 7 and has wiped out more than $US4 trillion from global stock markets this year. Europe's debt-ridden nations have to raise almost 2 trillion euros ($2.85 trillion) within the next three years to refinance, according to Bank of America.
''When the financial markets started losing confidence in the credibility of sovereign debt, Greece and the euro have taken centre stage, but the effects are liable to be felt worldwide,'' Mr Soros said.
Mr Soros gained fame in the 1990s when he reportedly made $US1 billion correctly betting against the British pound. He also wagered that Germany's mark would appreciate after the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and that Japanese stocks would start to fall in the same year. His firm, Soros Fund Management, manages about $US25 billion.
Credit default swaps, which aim to protect bondholders against the risk of a default, are dangerous and a ''license to kill,'' Mr Soros said overnight. CDSs should only be allowed if there is an insurable interest, he said.
Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/)

[hongkongfooey]

Let me guess, George has nothing to gain from putting the frighteners on the market, he's just doing it coz he's a nice guy and does'nt want to see anyone lose their shirt :rolleyes:

[breakfastburrito]

The Largest Heist in History - Building the Great Pyramid: The Global Financial Crisis Explained

This article was accepted as evidence and published by the British Parliament, House of Commons, Treasury Committee.

When the financial crisis erupted at the end of September 2008, there was an unusual sense of incredible panic among banking executives and government officials. These two establishment groups are known for their conservative, understated approach and, above all, their stiff upper lip. Yet at the time they appeared to the public running about like headless chickens. It was chaos. A state of complete chaos. Within a few weeks, however, decisions were made and everything seemed to returned to normal and back under control. The British Prime Minister Gordon Brown even famously remarked that the government “saved the world.”

But what really caused such an incredible panic in the establishment well known for its resilience? Maybe there are root causes that were not examined publicly and the government actions are nothing more than a temporary reprieve and a cover-up? Throwing good money after bad money, maybe?

Money Making Machine

In order to answer these questions we have to examine the basic principles on which the banking system operates and the mechanisms that caused the current crisis. Students at the A-level are taught about “multiple deposit creation,” It is the most rudimentary money creation mechanism for banks, which if administered properly serves the economy and public at-large very well. In the deposit creation process a bank accepts deposits and lends them out. But almost every lending returns soon to the bank as a deposit and is lent again. In essence, when people borrow money they do not keep it at home as cash, but spend it, so this money finds its way back to a bank quite quickly. It is not necessarily the same bank, but as the number of banks is limited (indeed very small) and there is — or was — a very active interbank lending. In terms of deposit creation the system works like one large bank.

Therefore, the same money is re-lent over and over again. If all depositors of all banks turned up at the same time there would not be enough cash to pay them out. However, such a situation is highly unlikely. Every borrower repays his loan and pays interest on it. In principle, the difference between a loan and a deposit interest rate is a source of the banks’ profit. Naturally, banks have to account for some creditors that will default and reflect it in the lending interest rate, or all the creditors who repay cover the costs of defaults. On top of it, the banks possess their own capital to provide security.

Fundamental to this deposit creation principle is the percentage of deposits that a bank lends out. The description above used a 100% loan-deposit ratio, meaning that all deposits are lent out. In traditional banking this ratio was always below 100%. For example, years ago, Westminster Bank (before it merged into National Westminster Bank), intended to lend out 86.5% of every deposit. For every £100 deposited, the bank lent out £86.5, while the remaining £13.50 was retained in the banks reserve with a small portion of it kept in the Bank of England. In practice, this ratio was the bank’s control tool on deposit creation process, ensuring that the amount of money supplied to the market was limited. According to this principle, for every £1 deposited, a bank lends out £0.865. After only 5 cycles the amount is reduced to below £0.50 and after 32 cycles it is below 1 penny. If this process continued forever the total amount of money lent out of a pound would be less than £6.41. With every cycle of deposit creation, a bank built up its reserves, ultimately collecting almost entire £1 for every £1 initial deposit. Added to capital repayments, interest payments on loans and the bank’s own capital base this system ensured that that there was always enough money in the bank for every depositor. For years banks worked as a confidence trick – the notional value of deposits and liabilities to be paid by the bank exceeded the value of money on the market. Since only a very small number of depositors demand cash withdrawals at the same time and almost all these paid-out deposits are deposited in a bank again quickly the banks ensured that every depositor got his money while circulating money in the economy and stimulating growth. The loan-deposit ratio was a self-regulating tool. As with every cycle it multiplies, the reduction of amounts created decreases exponentially and quickly. The faster the deposit creation cycles occur the faster the reduction progresses, thus accelerating with every cycle. The total “created” from the original £1 deposited in a bank is a finite, not more than £6.41 at the 86.5% loan-deposit ratio, backed by nearly £1 reserve. It is an inverted pyramid scheme starting from a fixed initial deposit base and quickly reducing through deposit creation cycle to zero.

Building a Pyramid

In a City bar back in 1998, an academic was discussing modern banking with his City colleagues from university. He was encouraged to invest in shares as their growth was well above inflation. He pointed out, however, that the inflation index does not take into account the growth of share price and as a consequence the market will run out of cash to pay for shares at some point. The only way would be down—a shares price crash. His City colleagues argued that there would be additional money coming in from different economies preventing a crash (a pretty thin argument in the world of global banking as foreign investors were already market players.) They also argued that the modern financial instruments allowed “securitisation”, “hedging” the risk and “leveraging” the original investment. Indeed it was a killer argument.

The deposit creation process is at the heart of the banking system servicing the public and stimulating economic growth. The modern banking instruments of securitisation, hedging, leveraging, derivatives and so on turned this process on its head. They enabled banks to lend more out than they took in deposits. According to Morgan Stanley Research, in 2007 UK banks loan-deposit ratio was 137%. In other words the banks were lending out on average £137.00 for every £100 paid in as a deposit. Another conservative estimate shows that this indicator for major UK banks was at least 174%. For others like Northern Rock it was a massive 322%. [For more details, refer to Table A.] Banks were “borrowing on the international markets” and lending money they did not have but assuming to have in the future. Likewise, “international markets” were doing exactly the same. At first sight it might not seem so much different than deposit creation. Deposit creation is lending money by the banks they do not have on the assumption that they will get enough back in sufficient time in the future from borrowers.

On closer examination there is a remarkable difference. With every cycle of the 86.5% loan-deposit ratio every £1 deposited is reduced becoming less than £0.50 after 5 cycles and less than 1 penny after 32. With a loan-deposit ratio of 137% — lending £137 for every £100 — not to mention 174% or indeed 322%, the story is drastically the opposite. Imagine a banker gets the first £1 deposit in the first week of a new year and lends it out. Imagine that twice every week in that year the amount lent out comes back to him as a deposit and he sustains such deposit creation process with a ratio of 137% twice every week for the year. This is a perfectly plausible scenario on the current electronic financial markets. By the following New Year’s Eve, the final amount he finally lends out from the original £1 is over £165 trillion (165 with 12 zeros, or over 16 times the amount governments have so far injected into economy). The total amount lent out in a year by a banker is over £447 trillion. Significantly with a loan-deposit ratio 100% or above no reserve is created.

It is an acknowledged monetary principle that the lending interest rate cannot be below 0%. This would allow borrowers to borrow money and banks would keep paying them for doing so. Indeed, there would be no incentive to lend and borrowing would have become a source of income for a borrower. Ultimately, lending would have stopped completely. It is a very similar principle that the loan-deposit ratio cannot be 100% or above, as in such circumstances, an amount of money coming from economic activities into deposit creation cycle would be multiplied very rapidly to infinity. Economic growth and inflation would not be able to catch up with it, which happens if loan-deposit ratio is below 100%.

The loan-deposit ratio below 100% that traditionally served as a very strict self-regulating mechanism of money supply stimulating the economy becomes a killer above 100%. The banking system becomes a classic example of a massive pyramid scheme. But as with every pyramid scheme, as long as people and institutions are happy not to demand cash withdrawals from the banks it is sustainable. Any bank can always print an impressive account statement or issue a new deposit certificate. The problem is whether the cash is there.

The qualitative and quantitative difference between loan-deposit ratio of 0% and 99% is infinitely smaller than between 99% and 100% or 101%. With ratios between 0% and 99%, we always end up with a money-making machine that creates a finite amount of money out of the initial deposit with a reserve nearly equal to the original deposit. If a ratio climbs to 100% or above the amount of money created spirals to infinity, if above 100% with exponential speed and no reserve is generated in this process. It is little wonder that Northern Rock which used the ratio of not less 322% collapsed first well ahead of others, HBOS with a ratio of around 175% ended up in a meltdown scenario later, while HSBC that used the ratio of not more than 91% was relatively safe (being a part of the global banking system, however, it has been at a risk stemming from the actions of other banks). [For more details, refer to Table A.]

Facing the Inevitable

For years the impressive-looking banks results brought a lot of confidence and the City was hailed as a beacon of the British economy. Bank executives, traders and financiers collected huge bonuses — not surprisingly, a lot of it in cash, rather than financial instruments. Influential economists and politicians alike justified stratospheric bonuses and hailed the City as the workhorse of the economy. Government strategic decisions were quite often subordinate to the objective of keeping the City strong. Irrational exuberance triumphed. Ultimately, City executives, traders and financiers proved to be pyramid purveyors not any more sophisticated (although perhaps better mannered) than their Albanian gangster counterparts who carried out a similar scheme 1996-97.

As with any pyramid scheme (and as long as there is still cash in the scheme) the beneficiaries are the operators of the scheme and “customers” who know when to get out of it. During the hectic dawn of the current financial crisis it is very likely that bank executives realised that it was the time that their pyramid started collapsing. This easily explains why banks stopped trusting one another and interbank lending collapsed. It was impossible to predict which node (financial institution) of a pyramid scheme would collapse next. There was a very distinct risk that if a bank lent money to another, the next day the bank-borrower may be bust and the money would be gone.

The collapse process, always an instant one, is accelerated by a dramatic loss of confidence amongst the pyramid customers. Once a single customer cannot withdraw his deposit, a great number of others start demanding payouts. City executives must have known this mechanism and explained to the government officials that unless the state shifts its weight injecting cash, guaranteeing deposits and lending, the system was bound to collapse. The Northern Rock case was a good dry run that pyramid purveyors gave government officials in September 2007. Facing a complete meltdown and an “Albanian scenario” the government acquiesced to the bankers’ demands by injecting cash on an unprecedented scale and giving wide guarantees.

The Route to Recovery

This is only the beginning of the story. According to some estimates there are around $2 quadrillion worth of financial instruments (like securities) that cannot be redeemed due to the lack of cash in the system — so-called toxic waste. These instruments are in the financial system and there are prospective beneficiaries of these instruments when they are redeemed, however. Furthermore they appreciate in value and attract interest so their notional value continues increasing over time. Governments around the world injected cash into the global banking system to a tune of around $10 trillion, or 200 times less than $2 quadrillion. At the same time they allowed bank executives and financiers who organised this pyramid scheme to remain at their posts to manage the injected money. Governments became the ultimate customers of pyramid purveyors with the hope that when they offer their custom it would somehow stop the giant pyramid scheme from collapsing. This is extremely naïve and very dangerous. The incredibly fast growth to infinity of pyramid schemes, which is only accelerating, will ensure that the government will not stand a chance to sustain it, unless this massive pyramid scheme is brought to a halt and liquidated. But there is no sign of governments contemplating doing that yet.

If governments do not liquidate the global pyramid scheme, the money they injected will be, in time, converted into toxic instruments (e.g. securities) and cashed in by organisers and privileged customers of these schemes (or in the case of Albania, gangsters and their customer friends). As the amount injected is around 200 times less than the notional value of toxic instruments, the economy will not even see a difference. It will be a step back to September 2008, only now with trillions of dollars of taxpayers’ money spent to sustain the pyramid scheme. It will be merely throwing good money after bad. But can governments afford to come up again with the same amount money and do it 200 times over or more? This is based on a very optimistic assumption that the notional value of toxic instruments is not increasing. If governments take the route of continuing to inject money, they will make taxpayers dependant on the financial system in the same way that criminal loan sharks control their customers — their debt is ever increasing and customers keep on paying forever as much as it is possible to extract from them.

In a normal free market economy a business that fails should be allowed to collapse. If a business is a giant pyramid scheme, like the current financial system, it must be allowed to collapse and its executives and operators should face prosecution. After all running pyramid schemes is illegal. Letting the banks collapse would have been a far more commercially sound solution than the current approach, provided the governments would have secured and guaranteed socially vital interests directly. For example, individual deposits would be guaranteed if a bank collapsed. Deposit accounts records, along with mortgage and genuine business accounts, would be moved to a specially created agency of the Bank of England which would honour them with government help. If a pension fund collapsed due to a bank collapse, individual pensioners would continue receiving their unchanged pensions from the social security system. This would guarantee social stability and a normal flow of cash into the economy.

The hard part would be to liquidate financial institutions while sifting through their toxic waste and to distinguish genuine non-toxic instruments and the results of pyramid scheme operation. Deposits, mortgages and business accounts are clearly non-toxic in principle. However, in the modern banking they were mixed with potentially toxic assets. This would be a gargantuan task.

The current “quantitative easing” (printing cash) is an attempt to convert more toxic instruments, like securities, into cash, albeit at some inflationary costs, and make them state-guaranteed, as cash is guaranteed by the state. It is just another trick of the financial pyramid purveyors to extract even more cash from taxpayers through the governments on the back of the scheme. Looking back to the 1990s, Albanian gangsters must feel really crossed considering that they were not offered such a “rescue” package first by Albanian government, and then by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund.

Unless and until the governments identify, isolate and write off toxic instruments held by financial institutions every pound put into “rescue” is very likely to end up being good money thrown after bad. (The governments, as ultimate customers of the global pyramid scheme, are supplying the pyramid purveyors and beneficiaries with tax payers’ cash and the largest heist in history continues.) Alongside the liquidation process, but after the toxic waste has been isolated and fenced off in failed financial institutions, governments must launch a fiscal stimulus package and go after the pyramid purveyors and beneficiaries to recover any cash and assets from them and bring them to justice. As the financial pyramid scheme is global, any action — including the recovery cash and assets — must be global, too. It is intriguing that banks in traditional offshore financial centres like Belize, US Virgin Islands, Bermuda, do not appear to suffer from liquidity problems. They do not require rescue packages even though a lot of them are subsidiaries of much larger banks which are affected by the current crisis. Is it a sheer coincidence that, for example, the loan-deposit ratio at US Virgin Islands banks is at a very prudent 42%? Little doubt there is a lot of cash there not created in those little economies. Mr John McDonnell MP [Member of Parliament in the UK] wrote in The Guardian on 20 February 2008:

“One series of offshore trusts associated with Northern Rock were called Granite (presumably a witty pun on the Rock bank). Granite holds approximately 40% of Northern Rock's assets, around £40bn. Yesterday, the Treasury minister told the house that "Granite is and has always been a separate legal entity".

Let's look at that: Northern Rock does not own Granite, that's true. It is however, wholly responsible for it: it's officially "on" its balance sheet in its accounts. But it is legally "off" its balance sheet when it comes to getting hold of its assets as the basis for the security of the sums owed the Treasury.

Granite is based in Jersey, an offshore tax haven where Northern Rock's best assets sit outside the reach of taxpayers. So the bill to nationalise Northern Rock will, in fact, be nationalising only dodgy debt, which will increase the burden on the taxpayer and put at risk the jobs of Northern Rock workers. The sad truth is that by failing to regulate the financial sector adequately, the government has been hoist by its own neoliberal petard. The participants in this tax dodge will be allowed to walk away with millions, when workers may lose their jobs and the taxpayer risk billions."

Epilogue

Some economists see overvaluation of financial instruments as the root cause of the current financial crisis. Overvaluation was not a necessary factor, but only a contributory and accelerating factor that worsened the crisis. The crux of the matter is that financial institutions have considered financial instruments, like securities, as good as cash and added them as cash in the deposit creation cycles at a rate that brought the loan-deposit ratio to 100% or above. Without non-cash financial instruments considered as cash it is impossible to go above 100% in a deposit creation cycle. And it does not matter if these instruments were given proper risk characteristics individually discounting their notional, face value. As long as with any residual value, they have been added in deposit creation process to an extent that its ratio was 100% or above, the disaster was only a matter of time. Because of exponential character of the creation it was a matter of a short time.

Loan-deposit ratio above 100% is like (untreated) AIDS. As it progresses it weakens the immune system of economy that safeguards against adverse events: natural disasters, wars, etc or sometimes unpredictable mood swings of market players. The current crisis was triggered by the collapse of subprime mortgage market (effectively overvaluation of assets). This time the system, for years having had been weakened by loan-deposit ratio above 100%, also collapsed altogether. It was a giant pyramid and it was bound to crumble anyway (for whatever direct cause). It was like a human suffering from AIDS whose death was not caused by AIDS directly, but by pneumonia, flu, infection, etc. However it is AIDS that made the curable illnesses lethal.

Until recently the world enjoyed a sustained period of high growth and low inflation and the fact that it came to such an abrupt end does not come as a surprise. It was in the very nature of the pyramid scheme mechanism. The deposit creation process with a ratio above 100% guaranteed impressive-looking economic growth figures. At the same time there were no extra cash hitting Main Street, as there was no extra cash printed. In this context, the high growth of property prices is no surprise. In their huge majority and extent, these are, in practice, cashless interbank transactions. The world stayed oblivious in this economic miracle like customers of a pyramid scheme being happy with the figures on their statements until they wanted to withdraw money. But like with any pyramid scheme, the financial system ran out of cash, with the outcome of a lack of liquidity, not high inflation.

Source:Greg Pytel (http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/content/the-largest-heist-in-history-building-the-great-pyramid-the-global-financial-crisis-explained-49427/)

[Foie gras]

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