What are we missing?

[tiger321]

The dust is settling and the word around town is that the majority of F/O's and S/O's will stay on COS99 whilst anybody approaching 50 will sign onto COS08.

It is well publicised that this is NR's "worst case scenario."
The question which is bugging me is why on earth would NR tell the AOA what his biggest fear / worst case scenario was? Is he pulling a fast one on us?

Makes me wonder what the "big picture" is? Are we walking straight into their master plan? - whatever that might be.

Maybe I'm paranoid but I smell a dirty!

[the reo]

Trouble is I can't work what is skulking in the shadows on this one.
I'm sure there is something there!

[JoeShmoe]

Maybe Nick's not as smart as people make him out to be??

[quadspeed]

Yes, and man never walked on the moon.

NR is just testing the waters on this one; he knew he had a slim chance of getting this through, and his "worst-case scenario" is what was expected, not hoped for. As for those CoS99 SO and FOs who actually signed across; a bonus to him. Anthing is better than nothing.

Now back to start, less those who signed. Can't blame the guy for trying.

[Sqwak7700]

Actually, it is not that hard to understand guys. Only 3 days left to the deadline and there is still no "hard copy" that you can refer to and actually see what you are signing. Do you think that is just a coincidence? This is planned for a reason. Only a moron would agree to a document without ever seeing it. :ugh:

Wanna know management's worst case scenario??

Everybody rejects SLS and COS08. Here is why:

Captains agree to not extend unless it is on their current conditions, otherwise, they resign training and leave at 55 (would never happen, this airline would shut down tomorrow). You will initially see a reaction from management to the tune of..."we can't guarantee extensions to anyone that applies, but we welcome you to try". Not yet...., you hold out a little longer. Then you negotiate that it is all or nothing. Everyone gets extended on current terms or you all walk. Sound impossible? It will require unity. Not talking AOA here, but people actually banding together and doing it ON THEIR OWN, WITH THEIR FELLOW PILOTS. What a concept...:hmm:

By agreeing extensions on your terms, the ball is now on your court. The best defense is a good offense... something on which our union needs serious schooling. :ugh: Remember, age 65 is a benefit to them more than it is to you. Otherwise, they wouldn't be proposing it at such a time as when most other carriers are trying to get rid of their pilots at the top-end of the seniority list - ie., the most expensive ones.

And as far as SLS, if NOONE takes it, the current team of managers will have three beauties to answer for at the next shareholders meeting: Hedging, Fines, and lack of SLS / COS08 uptake - which equates to their retirement "due to personal reasons". :yuk:

Those are the worst case scenarios, not the ones proposed to you by the company or the AOA. Regardless of where you stand, before making a choice, sit down and think about it. You are all pretty sharp individuals, I have yet to meet a pilot that is not at least somewhat smart. Don't exchange long term gains for short term ones. Remember that this place is what you make of it. :ok:

[fly123456]

Perhaps management never really expected anybody to sign for COS08, except +50yo captains.
Perhaps management just wanted people to sign for SLS, and their strategy was to give people two bad options, so people would take the "less worse" of the two.

Guess how many won't take COS08, but will take SLS, and still think they didn't give away anything.

I'm sure if there wasn't any COS08-COS99 choice, a lot less pilots would take SLS.

[flyingkiwi]

i actually think the opposite, if it was just SLS the guys would have agreed but because of this other cr#@@# we are really P#@@ off.

[Frogman1484]

Sqwak7700 nice plan but your expectation that someone is going to stand up by himself and say no to 10 years more employment just so that he can extend on his terms , is not going to EVER work. There will always be another guy that will extend on B C or even D scale.

Nice try though:}

[Sqwak7700]

Actually Frogman, I was hoping that guys would break off into groups of their peers, maybe 5 or 10 strong and agree on a course of action. It would only take 10 or so of these groups to really put a dent on CX's plans.

That would require action from every pilot, not just members of the AOA. The AOA is a club, it has no power unless its members are united and show force. Regardless of wether you are member or not, this could work if you band together.

Remember the Dragonair group of Captains that resigned last year and went to Air China, pretty much "dictating" their COS to them? There is safety and power in numbers, don't underestimate it. That is what we should be doing.

[Pathos]

It used to be a good job but now it's a job. Ironically, before, I would have loved to have worked longer but now I can't wait to leave. The types attracted to management have always been :mad:wits. What's changed for me is the realisation that underqualified people are encouraged, not prevented, from joining. Symptomatic; Flight Ops lost control. No and no.

[Azamat Bagatov]

Latest DFO Update :

"The fuel price has risen significantly in recent weeks, which is not good news for route profitability. Yes, it does mean that we may be able to write back some of the fuel hedge provisions on the balance sheet – a sort of perverse fuel hedge if you like – but in overall terms, a rising fuel price is not very good news for the airline"

Well, for farks sake.. which is it ??? First it was bad when they screwed up with the fuel hedging....now, it's bad again ???? :mad:
Who the fark is letting these guys continue run this outfit ? We are starting to look like a pack following a party of crossdressers at a Mardi Gras !!!! :ugh:

NO and Definitely a Farking BIG NO

Oh, I loved the comment also about groups of school students cancelling flights due to the outbreak of the single case of H1N1... like school groups now account for the majority of our profits... these pricks will look to any excuse.

[hongkongpilot]

The fuel price has risen significantly in recent weeks, which is not good news for route profitability
Typical CX F.... up ! Buy high sell low. :D
Anyone could aplly to be next CEO.

[Sqwak7700]

You should expect no less from management on the last update and propaganda attempt before our vote. They're gonna interpret everything in a pessimistic way to get as much sympathy as possible. :hmm:

To all you who haven't voted, why do you think they are doing this? They are desperate, just hang on until the 19th boys and girls...:D

[zygot44]

Agreeing to SLS/Cos08 is as sensible as a vote of respect for Nick Rhodes.

[Free Flight]

Yes, it does mean that we may be able to write back some of the fuel hedge provisions on the balance sheet – a sort of perverse fuel hedge if you like

Actually, Mr Rhodes, the mark-to-market fuel hedging losses are carried on the P&L sheet not the Balance Sheet - this is why we declared a LOSS last year. Now the fuel price has increased again, we stand to declare some US$1085 million (HK$ 8,463 million) onto the earnings side of our P&L less any realised hedge losses in the first 5 months of 2009. This is taken from the Company Report 2009 sensitivity analysis on fuel price based on the price on Friday of Brent Crude at US$ 58.40 per barrel.

Go on, Mr Rhodes, tell us how much the profit is for the first QTR.

Of course, this is not a cash profit but merely a accounting procedure - just the same as the fuel hedging loss for 2009 was not cash.

The only significant cash loss for 2009 was - yep, you've guessed it - HK$ 468 million paid in cash to the US Department of Justice.

I guess that you will need to check with your "grown ups" before putting out any more financial opinions.

FF