Pig flu and an economic crisis... [Archive]

Mr. Hat

26th Apr 2009, 07:46

Swine flu has 'pandemic potential' | Travel News | News.com.au (http://www.news.com.au/travel/story/0,28318,25388109-5014090,00.html)

Swine flu has 'pandemic potential'

By Adriana Barrera and Catherine Bremer in Mexico City, Mexico with wires

Reuters

April 26, 2009 01:34pm

* WHO warns of flu 'pandemic'
* Possible swine flu case in London
* Checks set up at Asian airports

A NEW flu virus that has killed up to 81 people in Mexico could start a global epidemic, the World Health Organization warned on Saturday as the disease spread further in the United States.

Australia's health protection officials, including chief medical officer Jim Bishop, are today holding talks on how to guard the nation from the pig flu outbreak in Mexico and the US.

The Department of Health and Ageing is liaising with the WHO, the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention and other public health experts, a spokeswoman for the department says.

"Anyone that has returned from Mexico with influenza-like symptoms since March this year should seek advice from their general practitioner or public health unit," she said.

Australia's airports were not officially on alert but were aware of the situation, she said.

Mexico's crowded capital of 20 million people, where most of the victims have died, hunkered down in fear of the swine flu and the government said it would isolate sick people if necessary.
Related Coverage

It said the flu had probably killed 81 people, raising the likely death toll from 68, and that more than 1300 people were believed to have been infected.

All schools in and around the sprawling capital and the central state of San Luis Potosi were ordered closed until May 6 and Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova called for all bars, clubs, stadiums, movie theaters, churches and other religious centers to be shut to limit further infections.

While all of the deaths so far have been in Mexico, the flu is spreading in the United States.

Eleven cases have been confirmed in California, Kansas and Texas, and eight schoolchildren in New York City caught a type A influenza virus that was likely to be the swine flu, health officials said on Saturday.

The World Health Organisation declared the outbreaks a "public health event of international concern" and said they could cause a pandemic - a global epidemic of serious disease.

The last flu pandemic was in 1968 when "Hong Kong" flu killed about 1 million people globally.

A new pandemic would deal a major blow to a world economy already knocked into its worst recession in decades by the crisis in financial markets.

In Mexico City, parents cancelled children's parties, bars were closed and residents stocked up on DVDs as people stayed home for the weekend to avoid contamination by a virus that has never been seen before.

"I think it's worse than they're telling us," said 35-year-old Lidia Diaz, sniffling and wearing a surgical mask as she headed to a clinic in the capital.

Mexican President Felipe Calderon issued an emergency decree giving the government special powers to run tests on sick people and order them to be isolated.

WHO Director-General Dr. Margaret Chan urged all countries to boost their surveillance for any unusual outbreaks of influenza-like illness and severe pneumonia.

"It has pandemic potential because it is infecting people," Dr Chan said in Geneva. "However, we cannot say on the basis of currently available laboratory, epidemiological and clinical evidence whether or not it will indeed cause a pandemic."

"The most worrying fact is that it appears to transmit from human to human," said Thomas Abraham, a spokesman for the WHO.

These features, along with the fact that unusually young healthy adults have fallen victim, and not the very old or very young, have given rise to fears of an epidemic or even a pandemic.

A British Airways cabin crew member was taken to a London hospital as a precaution after developing flu-like symptoms on a flight from Mexico City. It was the first such reported precautionary measure in Britain.

Hong Kong, Japan Checks

As far away as Hong Kong and Japan, health officials stepped up checks of travellers with flu-like symptoms. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said it was actively looking for new infections.

"We are worried and because we are worried we are acting aggressively on a number of fronts," the CDC's Dr. Anne Schuchat said. "The situation is serious."

In Mexico, most of the dead were aged 25 to 45, a worrying sign because a hallmark of past pandemics has been high fatalities among healthy young adults.

The new flu strain - a mixture of swine, human and avian flu viruses - is still poorly understood.

A significant worsening of the outbreak could hit tourism and consumer spending in Mexico, already weakened by the global economic crisis and an army-led war on drug cartels.

No countries or global bodies have issued travel bans to Mexico but some countries alerted travellers to check websites for information on the flu outbreak.

The WHO says the virus from 12 of the Mexican patients is genetically the same as a new strain of swine flu, designated H1N1, seen in the people in California and Texas, who have recovered.

With AAP.

Got the horn

26th Apr 2009, 08:56

The end is nigh! The end is nigh!! The sky is falling!! We're all doomed I tell you!

I love the way the media dine out on this stuff. Nothing like a bit of mass hysteria to keep the masses at bay. Classic example of it on TV3 News "Special" just after bro'Town. Watch the stock prices of the big Pharma's head skyward. I love a good conspiracy me.

iriver88

26th Apr 2009, 09:36

OK then , we would love to see your recent photos posing with pigs, preferably the species you can find in LAX, how about standing in front of a confirmed infected individual in Mexico/ LAX/ NYC/AKL/LHR and then breathe in as the infected person coughs in your face.

increasedescent

26th Apr 2009, 09:37

Apparently its just reached NZ too.

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25388522-23109,00.html
(http://www.news.com.au/travel/story/0,28318,25388109-5014090,00.html)

coaldemon

26th Apr 2009, 09:41

Wow together with that other Pandemic SARS life is over. Oh that's right SARS didn't really go anywhere and it was going to kill all life on earth back a couple of years ago. Motor Vehicles killed more people in the last week than any pandemic started by an animal will do.

iriver88

26th Apr 2009, 09:42

I think this unexpected twist plus Wayne Swan , our treasurer saying just this evening stated that contrary to all that was said before this evening, the recession will be longer and more difficult than initially thought.

Might just spell the end of the airlines/ tourism/ overseas travel business as we know it.
All will be bankrupt and come out leaner, as Obama promised GM bankruptcy. it will be fast painful but a new company will emerge and all baggages gone:eek:

TBM-Legend

26th Apr 2009, 14:12

NZ now!

I guess the Sheep Flu jab doesn't give 'protection'>>:uhoh:

Sunfish

26th Apr 2009, 22:23

Swine Flu is not a laughing matter. Just pray that we can keep it out of Australia.

If/when The W.H.O. comes clean, your industry is going to stop. The case fatality rate is looking like 5%, which is twice as bad as the 1918 pandemic.

hint: The tell tale in this comment (if true) is that medical staff are running away.

I'm a specialist doctor in respiratory diseases and intensive care at the Mexican National Institute of Health. There is a severe emergency over the swine flu here. More and more patients are being admitted to the intensive care unit. Despite the heroic efforts of all staff (doctors, nurses, specialists, etc) patients continue to inevitably die. The truth is that anti-viral treatments and vaccines are not expected to have any effect, even at high doses. It is a great fear among the staff. The infection risk is very high among the doctors and health staff.

There is a sense of chaos in the other hospitals and we do not know what to do. Staff are starting to leave and many are opting to retire or apply for holidays. The truth is that mortality is even higher than what is being reported by the authorities, at least in the hospital where I work it. It is killing three to four patients daily, and it has been going on for more than three weeks. It is a shame and there is great fear here. Increasingly younger patients aged 20 to 30 years are dying before our helpless eyes and there is great sadness among health professionals here.
Antonio Chavez, Mexico City [/b]

BBC NEWS | Scotland | Glasgow, Lanarkshire and West | Scots tourists in swine flu alert (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/glasgow_and_west/8019544.stm)

an3_bolt

26th Apr 2009, 22:58

SARS or Avian Influenza (H5N1 or H7N3 or H7N7 or H9N2)?

Avian Influenza is alive and well. It is all over the place with identified cases in Indonesia, Cambodia, Turkey, Thailand, Vietnam, Eqypt, China.

According to WHO the latest outbreak in Egypt of Avian Influenza of the 67 cases diagnosed some 23 have been fatal.

On the 8th April 2009 WHO reported that the 110 confirmed cases of human infection In Vietnam, 55 have been fatal.

On the 22nd January 2009 WHO reported that of the 141 confirmed cases in Indonesia, 115 were fatal.

On the 2nd of February 2009 WHO reported that of the 38 confirmed cases in China, 25 have been fatal.

Kind of makes you wonder how many are unreported and not confirmed in under developed areas or where diagnoses has been actively suppressed by local government.

I am still VERY concerned regarding Avian Influenza - should it mutate into an airborne virus I am convinced a pandemic would result.

Likewise - the method of transmission of the Swine Influenza could determine the impact on the population. Also the characteristics that it appears to attack middle age healthy people is a concern - kind of like the 1918 Spanish Flu is a concern. But it appear that no one really knows the extent of it yet and its proper characteristics.

With regards to airline travel - packing lots of people with no previous interaction into a very confined area - possibly being infected by one person - then these people moving onto their own social groups in society and spreading contact is a great concern for me - as it prevents the containment of a rapidly spreadable disease. I would have thought that diseases that show some time from infection to display of symptoms (ie look and feel OK but have a communicable disease) is a great concern.

The cleanliness of aircraft have a lot to be desired. You have to ask yourself "How well have these toilets been disinfected and who was last using it?" . The Avian Influenza has been reported to last up to 6 days in fecal matter.

I am very concerned. I believe the impact for the airline industry of a pandemic in an economic depression would be severe.

Capn Bloggs

26th Apr 2009, 23:01

Got the horn,
The end is nigh! The end is nigh!! The sky is falling!! We're all doomed I tell you!
I hope the world is exaggerating, but I suspect that you will be shown to be a twit for making such a post.

Sunfish

27th Apr 2009, 02:58

Swine flu is showing itself to be very efficient at human to human transmission but not as lethal as Bird flu.

Bird flu is much more lethal (around 80% Case fatality rate), but it is difficult to contract without handling dead fowl.

Just hope that Bird flu does not meet swine flu in Indonesia, then you might get a real "slate wiper" that fices the global warming problem permanently.

Bradley Marsh

27th Apr 2009, 03:16

A coupel of years back i wrote a webpage on the potential H5N1 pandemic threat. It includes a number of links to some of the worlds forem,ost authorities on the Flu A threat and I post a link to that old page here for anyone interested.

H5N1 - Information and Resources (http://www.bradleymarsh.com.au/homepage/H5N1.html)

Hope it is of some help.

The threat is serious but we are considerably better prepared thamn before. Interesting times indeed.

Cheers,
Brad

iriver88

27th Apr 2009, 03:18

The problem is that they are concern that the avian flu might "leap" across to an infected swine flu individual or animal and than the virus will merge and mutate to a even more complex avian-swine-human combined flu.

With the winter upon us in Australia, the winter flu is also floating around, this is pretty scary if it hits here. I mentioned this in the thread "qantas will die in 6 months" when the flu first pops up and members there dissed me for being alarmist and all dismiss it as mighty Qantas once again , will conquer all. Fact is, alot of flight attendants themsleves are afraid to contract any flu virus from passengers.

Expect sickies to go up on trips to America.:eek:

Anti viral like relenza and tamiflu only works if the symptoms are caught at the earliest stages of the infection, not when it is already progressing, all medicine are useless when the infection had progressed, as in mexico.

ditch handle

27th Apr 2009, 03:23

Quote-

"Fact is, alot of flight attendants themsleves are afraid to contract any flu virus from passengers."

____________

Actually, fact is you wouldn't know sh1t from clay.

Mr. Hat

27th Apr 2009, 03:24

Its not going away Australia on alert for deadly swine flu | National News | News.com.au (http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25389965-421,00.html)

Very bad timing.

iriver88

27th Apr 2009, 03:34

once again, pro management staff will spin you that this will not kill you, only put you on sick leave for days, that's all. This is as clear as clay or **** for that matter as it will get.

No masks or gloves at Qantas please, we are a premium airlines all staff on board are superheroes certified by marvel comics, all immune.

SHARES of Singapore Airlines Ltd, Asia's most profitable carrier, slumped on Monday morning on concern the swine flu outbreak in Mexico and other parts of North America will cause travel cutbacks. Bloomberg news reported.

'If this persists, transportation stocks will be affected,' said K. Ajith, an analyst at UOB-Kay Hian Research in Singapore.
'This is a global concern.'

Swamp Donkey

27th Apr 2009, 03:53

when will the uncivilised folks in the 3rd world stop 'fiddling' with their livestock....?

mrpaxing

27th Apr 2009, 04:06

these new disease could have not come at a worst time. looks like the LAX flights will be empty very quickly and more aircraft put against the fence if this virus can't be contained. a particulary worrysome development for QF as the LAX/LHR strategy is bound to fall apart and little new markets have been developed. Masks and gloves should be compulsory for crew asap.:oh:

Mr. Hat

27th Apr 2009, 04:19

Yeah my point exactly. I hope its a media stir but have a sinking feeling its not! Its got a SARS feeling to it.

ReverseFlight

27th Apr 2009, 04:54

Sunfish, is swine flu not as lethal as bird flu ? Here's an expert's view (he headed the fight against SARS in Hong Kong) and it isn't good news:

Video - Breaking News Videos from CNN.com (http://edition.cnn.com/video/#/video/health/2009/04/26/lustout.intv.lo.epidemic.cnn)

breakfastburrito

27th Apr 2009, 05:16

Here is a link to wikipedia for the best up-to-date FACTS as opposed to sensationalist media reporting.
2009 SWINE FLU H1N1 OUTBREAK. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_H1N1_flu_outbreak)

teresa green

27th Apr 2009, 05:59

The rumour is it started in Wall St! Keep away from banks and lending institutions and you should be ok.

Amelia_Flashtart

27th Apr 2009, 07:13

Sorry breakfastburrito but to use FACT and Wikipedia in the same sentence is just a joke. Anyone can post whatever they like on Wikipedia and entries are not verified or necessarily challenged - it should NEVER be used as a valid reference source (don't ever try using it at Uni or in the workplace as a valid reference source).

You want vaild information on swine flu go look at the BiosecurityAustralia and World Health Organisation (WHO) if you want facts from accredited experts in their fields not just the unverifiable opinions of self appointed experts with a passing interest.

In Oz your State Health Departments and Government Health Officers have up to date information available on request.

Mr. Hat

27th Apr 2009, 08:05

A swine flu pandemic could cost millions of lives and trillions of dollars | Business | News.com.au (http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,25392380-462,00.html)

Qantas, Virgin await swine flu advice | Business Breaking News | News.com.au (http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,25392347-31037,00.html)

Qantas, Virgin await swine flu advice

AAP

April 27, 2009 01:40pm

QANTAS says all of its services are operating as normal despite the swine flu outbreak.

"We haven't encountered any episodes of (swine flu), but there are no specific changes to travel arrangements or Qantas services," a spokesman said today.

"Qantas has standard procedures in place and regularly reviews them to manage these sorts of risks.

"We will be working closely with Australian and international authorities to monitor the situation."

Virgin Blue was awaiting government advice before implementing swine flu prevention measures.

"Like all airlines, Virgin Blue will take advice from the Australian Federal Government regarding any recommendations and comply with all specific requirements," a spokeswoman said.

Overall share market up but VB and QF down :(

tmpffisch

27th Apr 2009, 08:09

With that said Amelia, with such a current topic like that on Wikipedia, you can be reasonably assured that additions are verified and challenged, and is kept up to date compared to most other sources available.

breakfastburrito

27th Apr 2009, 08:21

Amelia, firstly never is a very strong word, the definition of which almost certainly invalidates the rest of you arguments, however lets put that aside for one moment.

Wikipedia, can, however suffer from exactly the problems you state, as anyone can indeed edit it.
Several external independent reviews (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reliability_of_Wikipedia) of Wikipedia disagree with your conclusion.
I note that the wikipedia article I linked has over 130 footnotes, many referencing the CDC and WHO, as well as external links clearly marked to both organisations.
Finally, I note that Biosecurity Australia (http://www.daff.gov.au/ba) has no information on its web page regarding swine flu. The NSW government department of health provides extremely limited information in its swine flu information (http://www.health.nsw.gov.au/publichealth/swine_flu.asp).
Government advice so far appears to be limited to basic personal hygiene precautions.

No other document on this topic I have seen on this topic approaches the depth of the article I linked to, especially from an aviation industry perspective, given its susceptibility to panic, real or imagined as well as infectious diseases.

The main thrust of my original post was to discourage taking the mass media "panic" hook line and sinker, and provide a reference so individuals can get an in depth perspective, review the information provided, follow links and draw their own conclusions from the perspective of the aviation industry.

Ultralights

27th Apr 2009, 09:24

im surprised no one has blamed global warming yet!

isnt that suppose to wipe us all out instead?

Amelia_Flashtart

27th Apr 2009, 10:22

breakfastburrito I find the statement "independent review" rather interesting as the review is in fact listed in Wikipedia! That totally invalidates the notion of "independent review" - it would not be published in Wikipedia if the review had been negative. But let's put that aside.:)

Wikipedia like many similar sites does supply some good information but is NEVER (yes - I used that word again) accepted as a authorative source by any acadenic or research institute due to the inconsistency of the standard and authenticity and accuracy of the information presented.

I would take the information presented by WHO, CDC and similar regarding this latest swine flu outbreak, over details in Wikipedia.

However, regardless of the source - swine flu is a serious matter and we need to have access to current and accurate information to allow the aviation industry and others to make balanced decisions and develop strategies to counteract any possible affects.

iriver88

27th Apr 2009, 10:33

I think CDC and WHO will be the most reliable sources for diseases outbreaks, also please understand that not many scientist are knowlegeable in this instance of swine flu because it would appear that this time around, it can transfer from human to human which previously thought was not possible.

"Qantas has standard procedures in place and regularly reviews them to manage these sorts of risks.It is not true, qantas has no specific detailed procedures that is standard to deal with Swine flu, nor bird flu. It only has procedures for dangerous goods removal which is removal of waste, but an infected human, there is no procedures for that on a full flight.

Also, I do not see an instant stock up of Relenza and Tamiflu in the qantas First Aid bags. These 2 anti retrovirus is said to be effective against Swine flu anectdotally. But it must be consumed within 8 hours of infection, not when symptoms appear. By the time symptoms appears, it may be already over 8 hours and non effective.
It (Swine flu virus) attacks respiratory organs, most notably the lungs. not a pretty sight to die of struggling for air in a full cabin.

Stationair8

27th Apr 2009, 10:44

Hope the RAAF have the F-111 fleet inoculated, wouldn't want the pigs to get the flu!

Any Piaggio P-166 left on the register, CASA will bring an AD inoculate them or cut them up.

iriver88

27th Apr 2009, 11:04

QANTAS says all of its services are operating as normal despite the swine flu outbreak.

"We haven't encountered any episodes of (swine flu), but there are no specific changes to travel arrangements or Qantas services," a spokesman said today.

short sighted, self serving, profit first safety last statement

Does Qantas imply that until they actually is face with an episode/s of (swine flu) before they make any changes? Wouldn't that be a little too late? Taking people's life with a cavalier attitude. What a crock of an airline.:mad:

one would suspect the most profitable route to Americas cannot be changed regardless, profit already down 30% in premium classes to Americas and A380 not filling up to the brim with standing room only, so if Qantas started to make changes in this route, then it would really mean the end of Qantas as we know it, it will only be done as the very last resort, such as a documented spread of swine flu on one of their flights, in which case, reputation would have been tarnished already.

4PW's

27th Apr 2009, 11:07

I'm with Amelia. Wikipedia is tainted. You need to fully understand Wiki to know why. Here's a small offering, a tiny insight:

"Wikipedia is a social media encyclopedia. That is to say, it is the work of thousands of people collaborating across the Internet to write millions of articles on every subject one would expect to find in an encyclopedia, and many more. People are free to edit other peoples’ words, adding their own knowledge to the sum. The constitutional principles of Wikipedia demand that such edits and additions be written from a “Neutral Point of View”. Every article is backed up by a discussion page, where the people who are working on that article can meet and work out their differences in an atmosphere where good faith is assumed. Ultimately, differences which are not so resolved are put to community vote. In sum, Wikipedia is socially constructed reality.

Wikipedia has drawn its detractors across many fronts. One thing that both supporters and detractors agree on, however, is the remarkable speed with which Wikipedia is updated to reflect the world around us. When any significant event happens, the appropriate page is updated within minutes, or even within seconds, by someone. Be it a public statement of a treasury official, the passing of a celebrity or a car bomb going off on a street in Beirut, the appropriate Wikipedia pages are updated before the story has finished scrolling across the wire."

Take naked short selling as an example. Don't know what naked short selling is? Not interested? Then don't look up:

The Hijacking Of Social Media | Deep Capture: exposing the crime of naked short selling (http://www.deepcapture.com/category/9-the-hijacking-of-social-media/)

We're not all doomed, but we are all being manipulated.

Swine flu a hoax?

No, but when my kids come home from school and complain about their teachers disallowing the use of Wiki as a resource for any and all school projects, EVER, you need information on Wiki, real inside-information before going to school and complaining to the hard working, dedicated and concerned teachers that are denying your son or daughter the use of what is widely misidentified as a valid source of information.

We all have a duty, to ourselves and to the potential readers of these posts, to ensure that what we contribute to this and any other social media site is accurate.

Wikipedia cannot be used because it is tainted. And however much your warm view of the world suggests otherwise, it is impossible to change that reality.

teresa green

27th Apr 2009, 11:17

Before you turn up to work tomorrow adding a mask to your uniform, the word is according to the ABC seven thirty report show, IF you live in a third world country, and receive no medical help you COULD cark it, those who live in this country with the help of a GP will feel mildly unwell, but will not (A) turn into a pig (B) will go back to work after a few days of feeling a little peaky, however the press will now have a field day, scaring the crap out of all the hypocondriacs, and will bring to the surface some bioscientist who has been buried in some onclave in CBR for years, declaring (mournfully) a epidemic of enormous preportions that will see many of us gasping our last, all of course which will add to the misery already suffered by the airlines and staff, and will give AJ and Virgin reason to add another 1,000 or so to the "goodbye" list. It never rains but pours doesn't it.:(

Miles

27th Apr 2009, 11:17

These 2 anti retrovirus is said to be effective against Swine flu anectdotally. But it must be consumed within 8 hours of infection, not when symptoms appear. By the time symptoms appears, it may be already over 8 hours and non effective.

iriver88, can you please supply your source for the above supposition?

iriver88

27th Apr 2009, 11:19

wonder if crew call in sick with flu symptoms will be subject to the usual team managers hassles and interrogation and pesky phone calls and letter in the mail as per procedures, in that case than I think crew who have flu like symptoms should just soldier on and not call in sick but bring the flu to work, otherwise you risk having team manager hassling you and a potential chapter eleven for taking so many sick leave.

iriver88

27th Apr 2009, 11:25

iriver88, can you please supply your source for the above supposition?

I had taken relenza before, it was prescribe by my doctor and it is the most unusual medication, you punch the blister pack with a special plastic thingo and then you inhale it thru the mouth, you need to do that like 4 times a day and it is a very expensive prescription. The doctor asked me specifically how long I had noticed the symptoms (very high fever) and with the information he told me the Relenza should be effective, he did tell me that it only works if it was during a certain period when you are infected. 8 Hours.

You can check on the info, it is made by GlaxoSimthKline

ditch handle

27th Apr 2009, 11:32

Half a bubble off plumb.........

iriver88

27th Apr 2009, 11:35

sorry my bad, it was 48 hours window after infection, it has been so long since I took Relenza, I forgot, anyways you should take it as soon as possible, but if, like ditch handle, you'd rather play around with your life before the 48 hour limit is up before taking Relenza after an infection, it's entirely up to you

Relenza information from the manufacturer

http://us.gsk.com/products/assets/us_relenza.pdf

Tamiflu is different again, I have not taken Tamiflu before. I can assure you my flu went away very quickly after taking Relenza, but as the doctor said I was within the window after infection, oddly, I caught that flu in one of my flights.

ditch handle

27th Apr 2009, 11:38

The wheel's spinning, but the hamster's dead..........

Miles

27th Apr 2009, 11:43

Its people like you I have to battle with most days........misinformation can kill patients too.

By the way,you don't like Qantas, we get it :mad:

iriver88

27th Apr 2009, 11:49

I said u need to take it within 8 hours before now the facts says within a 48 hours window, so how is that killing patients? You actually have a better start by taking it within 8 hours even though u have another 40 hours to suffer before taking Relenza.

Whether I hate Telstra or Qantas or Coles or K mart had no relevance here.

If you ask around, you'd find most people hate Commonwealth bank also.

so why is Qantas suddenly so precious? when so many other companies are also hated.

breakfastburrito

27th Apr 2009, 11:52

Amelia, we are going to have to disagree.
However, last time I looked PPRuNE, posts were not required to meet the gold standard for academic peer review journals.
Any reasonable person using the links I provided would, with two mouse clicks been able to test the veracity of statements contained within those articles with a link to the authoritative source - the very same ones you mention.
Given the nature of the other links posted on this topic from mainstream media, I would consider the wikipedia article to of a far higher standard.
You are correct, if I was making a board submission to a business or a writing an article for peer review, I would not reference wikipedia directly, however, I may well reference the same authoritative sources wikipedia does.

iriver88

27th Apr 2009, 12:03

the thing to remember about this Swine flu is that it cannot be contained, it can only be managed to a certain degree. Then it's sit and watch, you can only do so much but you cannot contain it.

We can't contain outbreak, scientists warn | The Australian (http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25391069-2703,00.html)

There is no denying this new development on top of GFC will definitely hurt Airlines, toursim and hospitality, this is facts. but is is boom time for pharmaceutical companies again that is facts. You may defend you employer (despite majority front line staff being treated with no respect, some even with contempt by the same employer they defend) but you cannot change the course of this virus development and what business it will hit most: traveling and tourism.

Swine flu spreads economic shivers (http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/swine-flu-spreads-economic-shivers-20090427-aknx.html)

Miles

27th Apr 2009, 12:08

ditch handle

27th Apr 2009, 12:10

Kangaroos loose in the top paddock.........

iriver88

27th Apr 2009, 12:16

It is wrong to state innaccurate facts regarding medicine, lesser informed people may get the wrong impression and may end up not getting the right treatment. Granted it probably will not kill many with this presentation, but as a medical professional you would be surprised how many people do die as a result of listening to incorrect "information"

First of all, if you are down with a flu, you would not log on to PPrune for some advise, that would be a laughing matter. Next, I never ever claim to be a medical expert, neither are all flight attendants on Qantas flights (none carry a medical degree) I simply recall my experience in consumption of Relenza and I remembered the thing that struck me most was the timing of taking and the way the medication is packaged. And how effective it was, provided you do not take it after 48 hours after symptoms appear.

And again, whether I hate James Hardie or Bonds or Qantas or lump them all in the same basket is really no one's business nor relevant in the discussion of Pig flu.

Lots of people hates John Howard and go on to live very normal lives, and John Howard himself too lead a very happy life. So likewise you can hate Qantas and still go on to have a normal productive life and Qantas will still not missed a thing.

Miles

27th Apr 2009, 12:25

I think you are right ditch.

river, you have been shown up for what you are.........Im done trying to get through to you.

One for the ignore list.......

iriver88

27th Apr 2009, 12:30

thankfully I have a choice , although the choices are limited in this anti competitive domestic flight environment. because I have a choice, I doubt we would ever meet up.:ok:

Small and narrow minded people who have the urge to put everyone in a box that fits can never ever go very far in life.

lowerlobe

27th Apr 2009, 22:32

Gentlemen...
I think it's obvious here that someone is showing immediate signs of contracting the deadly swine flu...

The first signs are an almost undeviating and monotonous dislike of a particular entity without any rational or at least apparent justification ...

The second sign is a consistent and an irritating inability to be able to post without correct grammar and spelling.....

The latin medical term for this swine flu is ....

Kangaroo looseium in topos paddocks horribilus

The only known medical treament is to ignore it and eventually it will disappear....

Much Ado

28th Apr 2009, 02:46

The only known medical treament is to ignore it and eventually it will disappear....

Not quite true...iriver88 wont be 'contributing' again:E

flyergirl

28th Apr 2009, 03:51

Oh thank you mods, this is music to my ears! Whilst all appreciate healthy debate (pardon the pun in the current topic), the postings(rantings) of said banned person made some previously banned topics look intelligent! Now back to the topic please!:ok:

rafterman

28th Apr 2009, 05:08

I have just finshed reading a book called Blood Lines by NZ author Michael Green. Basic storyline is that a pandemic strikes killing everyone in the world except the members of one particular family in NZ who, realising that they need to increase their gene pool, embark on a journey to England by yacht to search for any surviving relatives. Rather good read actually and if he was planning a sequel, now would be the time to cash in..... big time. :)

Seriously though, given the media hype beginning to take place, how long before the travelling public start getting jittery and wanting face masks etc onboard, remember the fiasco during SARS trying to stock all aircraft with hundreds of them?

mrpaxing

28th Apr 2009, 05:15

pointed out during SARS there was a couple of hundred which sadely died , but there was a potentail pool of 1 1/2 billion people in the region. :ouch:

Capt Kremin

28th Apr 2009, 05:23

Iriver gone?!? Its a bit sad in a way as it was starting to be a bit of fun, trolling the troll.
Anyway, this is the last thing the airlines need and I lay the blame squarely at the feet of a slathering media. They just can't help themselves. Watch for the Vox Pops on the 6pm news tonight done to poor unaware passengers as they arrived in Sydney this morning.
Bunch of vultures who do far more harm than good!:mad: (the media, not the passengers....)

lowerlobe

28th Apr 2009, 05:47

Capt Kremin...
I could not agree more about the media....They do not care about the accuracy of their reporting only the sensationalism...

This is a generalisation but it seems as though there are few sincere journo's out there.

Not only are they responsible for feeding the panic merchants about the swine flu out break but the current economic mess as well...

How many people die on the roads around the world every day but if one person is killed in an aircraft accident it will be in the headlines for days...

SLFAussie

28th Apr 2009, 09:01

I was speaking to one of my closest friends yesterday, who happens to be an infectious diseases physician (specialist doctor). I asked her about the fuss. She explained to me that there were no recorded cases of bird flu being transmitted from human-to-human, it was always bird-to-human. There are already confirmed cases in the U.S. of swine flu being transmitted human-to-human. That's the difference and why so much fuss is being made in the media.

Bradley Marsh

28th Apr 2009, 17:11

Hi SLF et al,

I tried to post a link to the thread I wanted you to see but it is too big for PPRuNe. Please go to the my page referred below and see the sub heading about Human to Human transmission.

I would also suggest chasing up some info from the worlds experts such as Drs Michael Osterholm, Robert Webster and Lance Jennings (both the latter are Kiwis btw). These chaps are amongst the worlds leaders and were quite prominent during the H5N1 alert in 2005 and are again at the forefront with this H1N1 event.

I have a page of info you may or may not find useful. A couple of links are broken as I wrote it in 2005 addressing H5N1 but it is all still quite relevant now. I posted the link earlier and put it here again as the thread (like most in PPRuNe) degenerated into garbage. I'll update the page should it become necessary but for now all the info there is quite relevant.

Some H5N1 info (http://www.bradleymarsh.com.au/homepage/H5N1.html)

This H1N1 epidemic may end up as the pandemic (certainly Dr Bob Webster thinks so) which is overdue. Let's wait and see but I strongly recommend everyone get the best info possible.

Cheers,

Brad

hongkongfooey

28th Apr 2009, 21:28

30-50000 people suffer flu related deaths in a 1st world country ( the US ) every year !
100 odd people die in a 3rd world country and we are doomed ( by a disease that is treatable )

The " Financial Tsunami " is losing momentum in the press, so those bottom feeders need something else to start panic. Rather than exterminating pigs and birds, why not exterminate the press and solve 1/2 the worlds problems :mad:

Not saying it's a problem to be ignored, but sell your airline shares and buy pharmaceutical.

skol

28th Apr 2009, 23:18

You can always CYA (cover your ass) by buying shares in Biota (code BTA) which manufactures Relenza.
Up 82% yesterday.
There's no guarantee you still won't die but at least you'll die rich.
Just remember to get out before it all becomes a non-event.

Wizard

29th Apr 2009, 00:48

by Stephen Bartholomeusz
Aviation's secondary infection

Alan Joyce and Brett Godfrey are being given a refresher course, as if they needed one, in the reality of the airline industry. Murphy’s Law always applies.

In an industry already reeling and under acute pressure from the impacts of the global financial crisis and recession, the last thing the Qantas and Virgin Blue chief executives would have wanted to learn of was the outbreak of what could develop into pandemic influenza.

More particularly, with both carriers now bleeding from the sudden escalation in competition on what was once one of the most profitable of Qantas’ international routes, neither could afford fresh threats to traffic emanating from the Americas.

The two Australian carriers – Virgin through its fledgling V Australia brand – are embroiled in a four-way dog-fight with United Airlines and Delta Airlines on the transpacific route to the west coast of the US that once generated an estimated 15 per cent of the Qantas group’s profits.

The entry of V Australia and Delta to that route coincided with the steep downturn in passenger volumes and yields caused by the global crisis. Joyce recently conceded that Qantas would lose money on the route amidst deep discounting while Godfrey has said that he expects to lose more than V Australia’s start-up costs of $60 million in its first year of operation.

Delta, the world’s largest carrier, last week described its entry to the route and plans to increase capacity as a ‘disaster’ for Qantas. It alone will increase capacity on the route by 25 per cent. Fares are estimated to have fallen nearly 60 per cent in the past six months, with premium high-margin traffic – a segment dominated by Qantas – particularly hard hit.

Add the swine flu epidemic to the existing deteriorating economics of the route and it will be a disaster for all the carriers, not just Qantas. V Australia has already rescheduled planned deliveries of new aircraft in response to the altered circumstances on the route. The US carriers will be even harder hit, given the impact on their domestic networks and their Latin America traffic.

It is too early to draw any meaningful comparisons with the SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) outbreak in 2003, which devastated airline traffic, particularly in Asia, in 2003.

That crisis knocked more than one per cent off the GDP of Asian countries and at its worst reduced passenger volumes in the region by more than a third. It also produced Qantas’ first loss as a listed company, albeit only for a half year.

The SARS outbreak came just as airlines were recovering from the impact of September 11. This time the global financial crisis had driven passenger volumes down for the first time since 2003 and they were still falling.

If concerns about air travel continue to grow, the new threat could add to the existing severe pressures on the sector and force a broader and deeper restructuring of a flawed industry than might otherwise have been the case.

On the transpacific route, it might bring some rationality and a realisation that in the current global economic climate a four-cornered contest characterised by deep discounting and unsustainable load factors is suicidal. At least one and more likely two of the airlines will be forced from that route if the losses continue to mount.

Tempo

29th Apr 2009, 02:31

HongKongPhoey,

You are absolutely spot on!

Mention the words Pandemic and Outbreak, a few shots of people with face masks and if at all possible reference flu outbreaks at the turn of the century and bob's your uncle...we have a news story.

Lodown

29th Apr 2009, 03:02

Don't confuse "when pigs fly" with swine flu.

Teal

29th Apr 2009, 04:06

This article from today's crikey.com.au puts things in perspective

Swine flu pandemics and other porkies
Canberra correspondent Bernard Keane writes:

The human capacity for self-distraction is astonishing.

In terms of impacts on human lives, the current outbreak of Swine Flu in North America is minimal compared to hundreds of other issues. This morning we had the remarkable sight of the US Homeland Security Secretary dolefully intoning that Americans would inevitably die from Swine Flu.

Except, Americans will inevitably die from flu any time. Whether it is one specific strain of flu or another would, particularly to the victims, seem to be moot. Particularly elderly victims, many in nursing homes, whose deaths are frequently attributed to flu in the same way that police tend to blame motor vehicle accidents on speed i.e. because it’s a convenient thing to write on the form.

The US Homeland Security Department in fact would save far more lives if it directed some of the resources now being allocated to fighting Swine Flu to gun control. Firearms will account for thousands of deaths in US in the course of this year. Motor vehicle accidents will take plenty of Americans as well. One could go on. Breast cancer. Falls in the elderly. SIDS.

All real priorities but Swine Flu -- the pig link is so compelling isn’t it -- gets the attention, despite accounting for fewer deaths than a week’s road toll.

Predictably, politicians here have seized on the opportunity to look simultaneously caring but stern, and assure voters that they’ll be protected. Here there has been talk of detention powers – seemingly the inevitable Australia response – to make sure we remain Swine Flu free. God help any boat people landing on Christmas Island while running a fever. And we can’t control that nationalistic instinct, can we -- we have the biggest Tamiflu stockpiles in the world, according to Nicola Roxon (http://redirect.cmailer.com.au/LinkRedirector.aspx?clid=635317a6-d425-44d2-9fa2-aa0d1c3bfe15&rid=70ac6a9f-9f82-4748-a87c-e55bbfe757f1). Once again, we’re ahead of the curve and leading the world. To paraphrase Wayne Swan, every Health Minister in the world would gladly swap places with us.

Egging the politicians on has been the mainstream media, which has led every bulletin with the latest trivial update on the death toll (or, as it was rendered in the SMH yesterday as the first doubts were cast on the hype, "probably deaths"). Plagues sell papers, of course, and what better way to get those eyeballs locked back in than to spread panic and suggest I Am Legend is just around the corner.

The World Health Organisation put paid to some of the more hysterical coverage today by saying there had only been seven confirmed deaths. Let’s see if that takes the panic-stricken edge off the some of the coverage, which seems aimed solely at stoking public concern rather than accurately informing the public.

Carjockey

29th Apr 2009, 05:00

Mexico outbreak traced to 'manure lagoons' at pig farm.

The thick plottens...:yuk:

Mexico outbreak traced to 'manure lagoons' at pig farm - Times Online (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/health/article6182789.ece)

teresa green

29th Apr 2009, 12:48

Listen you guys, at my age I have heard this crap, (you are all going to die) perhaps 10 times, very few did, perhaps the very young, and like my self the very old. This stuff is a medias manna from heaven, the reality is Mexico is a third world country, 90 per cent have nothing, 10 per cent do allright, very little medical care for the majority, so the end result is no mystery, out here with the help of a GP you will be no worse off than if you just got the normal flu, wash your hands, remember the A/C aircondioning is effective in filtering virus's and get on with your life, there is money to made out of all this madness and it won't be you, only chemists, scientists and bull sh%t artists, (and you can be assured the "natural health" people will have a tablet out in the next few weeks to save you), its happened before and will happen again, sadly it never lives up to the pessimists predictions, and most of us survive, but the damage to the airline industry is damaging everytime, and it costs jobs, THAT should be your main concern, not a couple of days in bed.

Pushback

29th Apr 2009, 21:14

There isn't much to report apparently, so now we have a "Swine Flu" epidemic.

The media are desperate to sell STORIES. I guess they don't get paid otherwise.

Just like SARS, Bird flu etc, foot and mouth disease, mad cow disease.... The fact is if the media didn't lie about the magnitude of these issues, we wouldn't even think about it.... or allow it to be manifested in our reality.

The journos will get tired of swine flu, after causing health alerts, thermal screening of passengers, increased fares and swine flu levies, and move on to the next horror story. We will all pay for a flu vaccination perhaps.

"Pilots will required to report flu symptoms on board" Nonsense. The pilots will fly the aeroplane.... the cabin crew will be the ones to identify and report sickness to the tech crew for report to the authorities..

When this issue has subsided, the media will be back to bitching about the awful economic situation we are supposedly in. Which has been caused by them.

The road toll will get some more exposure. The media focus on NEGATIVITY which is destructive.

We'd still be buying new cars if they hadn't scared us to death!

This is just another attempt at sensationalism by the media to get us to watch the news!. Negativity sells .. apparently.

We all know how they report aircraft incidents with total ignorance, therefore everything they print has to be regarded with suspicion!

Live in the present moment, plan for the future, and do not be sucked in by the scourge of mankind..... aka Journalists.

It is yet another beautiful day in Australia. Lets skip watching "The News"!

:ok:

Sunfish

29th Apr 2009, 21:43

The W.H.O. has just raised its alert level to FIVE - Pandemic imminent.

For your own health, and that of your family and friends, do not ignore this matter and make preparations as recommended by the Government.

Translation: The posts by Pushback, Teresa Green and the article by Crikey are completely wrong. This is serious.

It is serious for a number of reasons. Firstly, the virus is a new species never before seen. It is highly infectious. While it appears to be relatively mild at present, as it travels around the world the virus is going to have many opportunities to mutate, and it could mutate into a deadlier strain. We do not yet have a handle on it's lethality because the information coming out of Mexico is stuffed, but we already know its highly infectious.

Even if its not directly lethal, the main killer in many influenza infections is secondary infection - usually with pneumonia, which can be a killer.

But wait, there is more. Can you imagine what happens to the health system when perhaps 20% of the population are requiring treatment at any given time?

ANd while it is currently a remote possibility, can you imagine what would happen if our wonderfful, globalised, just in time supply chain breaks down as a result of massive absenteeism?

But don't listen to me, just stick your head in the sand.

To pick an aviation example, what happens when not just one, but all of the refuellers at YMMB come down with Flu all at once?

Transition Layer

29th Apr 2009, 22:00

As always, read the fine print...

The news followed the death of a 23-month-old child from swine flu in the United States - the first fatal victim outside Mexico.

The toddler who died in Texas was a Mexican who crossed the border for treatment...

:rolleyes:

Pushback

29th Apr 2009, 22:00

Pushback

29th Apr 2009, 22:05

Sunfish,

Wake up. See through the media web.

Focus on the positives in life only......

Sunfish

29th Apr 2009, 22:09

Pushback, you are a fool.

I've been following this for Five years. The W.H.O. is bending over backwards to be conservative in it's response. Governments everywhere are doing their best to be seen as conservative and responsible, making reassuring noises to their populations so as to avoid panic....for now.

But don't listen to me, start educating yourself:

Flu Wiki - Main - Flu Wiki (http://www.fluwikie.com/)

Plan for Pandemic: :: (http://www.planforpandemic.com/)

/www.singtomeohmuse.com

Pushback

29th Apr 2009, 22:27

This is a forum in which we can present our views. It is not appropriate to level personal criticism.

If you have scientific proof to support your opinion.... then present it. Present it from your own personal knowledge or support it with non media related evidence.

I do not wish to attack your personal beliefs, and you are welcome to pm me, I would be delighted to talk to you.

I am of the opinion that the media is a negative influence on our society due to their inability to report the TRUTH.

Lets go forward in life with a positive attitude.... it is the only way to make things happen.
:ok:

Capt Kremin

29th Apr 2009, 22:34

......wot pushback sed........

Sunfish

29th Apr 2009, 22:51

(Sigh)

Visit the websites I've referenced and start reading, beginning with Flu Wiki.

Pushback

29th Apr 2009, 22:51

Just another media beat up.

Lets not give it credence.

skol

29th Apr 2009, 23:21

Now's the time to plan your staff travel, there'll be lots of empty seats as the wimps stay at home.
Probably get an upgrade as well.

Pushback

29th Apr 2009, 23:31

Sunfish.

PM me your postal address, I would like to send you a gift... a book, titled The Power of Positive Thinking, by Norman Vincent Peale. Just to begin with.

Brgds

Pushback:ok:

Crew rest.

29th Apr 2009, 23:40

I saw on the news last night: News anchor said

"Brisbane has 4 suspected cases...including 2 people who have tested negative".

In other words, BN has 2 suspected cases.

:ugh:

greenslopes

30th Apr 2009, 00:29

No 1 Dear.........are you by chance a relative of Pauline Hanson ? With logic like that you should be.

Please Explain??

Square Bear

30th Apr 2009, 00:35

Just another media beat up. Lets not give it credence.

Maybe the World Health Organanization (WHO) should touch base with and get advice from those PPRuNe'rs who are experts on all things known to man.

Certainly be a bit cheaper than using costly scientists and other field professionals. :ok:

Nick10

30th Apr 2009, 01:15

oh yes - everything is the fault of the media. what a bunch of paranoid hippies visit this site. you'll be banging on about chemtrails and faked moon landings next. :}

read the WHO release put out this morning and make up your own mind. yes, some reporting can be pretty wild and it might all come to nothing, but for the moment there is real concern about this one.

WHO | Swine influenza (http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2009/h1n1_20090429/en/index.html)

skol

30th Apr 2009, 03:05

Yep, your right, there's nothing better than calling up the 'experts'.

Chimbu chuckles

30th Apr 2009, 03:47

Anyone else notice how all the experts/media sound like they are in a Hollywood disaster movie...who wants to bet the two remaining Brisbane suspected cases will test negative too?

Sunfish a new, never before seen, strain of flu appears EVERY YEAR. That is what Flu does. In the last week or so a couple of 1000 people worldwide have died of normal influenza, as happens every week, year in year out...maybe 120 have died of swine flu.

How many people do you suppose died of malaria in the last 2 weeks..and the two weeks before that...and etc?

Tell us again why we should be worried?

VH-UFO

30th Apr 2009, 03:58

Thought i was gonna get arrested last night.

Standing in line at one of those sandwich making joints, with a pi..., er, copper standing next to me.

He sneezed and i said, "I see you have the 'pig' flu".:E

Well the look i got, thought i was done for sure until the missus dragged me away with heartfelt apologies.

Wish i would think before blurting.

4PW's

30th Apr 2009, 05:04

I can't believe you are taking yourself seriously, quoting Wikipedia.

That is the most discredited site of all sites on the web.

It is not a reliable source of information, but hey, keep reading it and post your fears here.

I am not a legend...

Angle of Attack

30th Apr 2009, 06:21

CC, yeah around 170 or so died in Mexico but in fact only around 8 have been positively as a result of the "Swine" flu. And why was NZ so quickly able to positively test their few cases while here in OZ the number of suspected cases climbs daily but still no positive result? (even after almost a week?)

I havent watched any telly the last couple of weeks so not sure how hysterical they are but guess the commercial networks are having a field day with this one! I heard a guy on talkback radio saying pet shops should get rid of those dried pig ears as they are dangerous to human health?! WTF? If they do get rid of them deliver all dried pig ears free of charge to my shed, I'll stockpile them and once the hysteria dies down make a killing! :E (If not I will have to re-hydrate them and use them s Berley I guess)

I understand the opinion of the WHO and they are the experts but it is the way the world is these days, everyone has to cover their ar$es! Just think of the OH&S departments, they are the authority right? Yes so we should believe them especially when they mandate on a kettle in my workplace a sign saying "Warning Hot Water may burn" (yes this is true no joke) The western worlds authorities have been corrupted by this arse covering policy and that's why I believe so many people don't trust them, I am not saying they are wrong on this one just like the boy that cried Dingo! I mean Wolf!

I went to Hong Kong in the middle of the Bird Flu Outbreak and it was the best time ever! Easy to get around, eating lot's of Chicken etc, and going to the pubs every night! And I am not saying Bird Flu was good, I knew someone that got it and they were mighty sick but at the end of the day you are as likely to get that or Swine Flu at the same chance of any new flu which for me personally is pretty rare, so chances wise I'll take the risk!

Dragun

30th Apr 2009, 07:07

I'm sorry but channel 10 just took this cr@p to a whole new level. Sandra Sully opened the 5pm news bulletin with:

"Sydney airport has installed a new system of defence in the WAR AGAINST SWINE FLU."

Is she JOKING?! War against swine flu? What the hell is wrong with these people and where do they come up with this disgusting excuse for journalism? :mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad:

greenslopes

30th Apr 2009, 11:05

vh-ufo, you should have asked if he wanted some "Oinkment"!

Allright...I'm going.......

Sunfish

30th Apr 2009, 12:08

There is an infinity of posts on Pprune about the inaccuracy of articles about aviation.

You should therefore assume that their articles about Flu Pandemics are similarly flawed, right?

I spent Six years working with the scientists who do this stuff.

If you ignore what is going on you are ******. Translation: This is not a drill, and it is serious.

On the positive side, I guess there will be some job openings for people who prepared to survive this pandemic. What amazes me is the attitude of those who have never even researched the subject. If you have not studied this matter, start learning right now. By the time that the average man learns, it will be too late for most of them.

SLFAussie

30th Apr 2009, 13:24

Like Sunfish, I've spent time working with people who do this stuff.

For the most part, this one isn't a media beat-up. Those who run the media have been told about the importance of this story by health organisations. It helps the media that the story is sensational, and it doesn't help the rest of us that there will be dopey reporting, but one of the first steps in controlling any outbreak of disease is to make the public aware of it. This has been done very effectively.

The next step is to control its spread, and if it means closing borders, governments will do this and this will mean disruption for the airline industry.

The bad news is that the Mexican government were slow to realise the significance of this virus and worse still, this virus seems to be highly infectious.

The good news is that it is apparently - for the moment - less lethal than the recent bird flu virus. It's also more treatable because we have pharmaceuticals that weren't around during the last great H1N1 virus pandemic in 1918 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic). And hopefully in a few months there will be a vaccine that protects us, just like vaccines were created for smallpox and poliomyelitis.

Even more good news is that governments internationally are responding quickly to contain outbreaks of the virus, using plans that have been created and exercised by medical scientists. Hopefully early action will mean that the sceptics can remain sceptical for the next time around.

And the advice that I've received from a trusted doctor? Wash you hands! More often than not respiratory viruses are passed from your hands to your nose, eyes or mouth, not directly from another infected person's breath.

Gesundheit.

Lodown

30th Apr 2009, 14:15

Sunfish, I appreciate your comments, but must admit that after many years of seeing all sorts of bleatings by the Chicken Littles of the community, I am suspicious of public statements that resemble someone throwing their hands in the air, running in circles and screaming, "We're all gonna die!"
Obviously, by the way the WHO is treating this, it is regarded as serious. Schools are closing in the US for two weeks, but that action is seemingly causing more problems than it attempts to solve. Parents have to stay home from work to look after the kids and the kids are congregating in public places regardless. I, like many, try to look for a balanced coverage of the circumstances and seek opinions of those knowledgeable on the subject for advice. It doesn't help to be a doomsayer on the subject, assuming the worst case scenario, as many in the media attempt to highlight. It yet could be an isolated development and a mild form of influenza. It doesn't help to spread panic when, for most people, they have little control over the outcome.

mickjoebill

30th Apr 2009, 14:52

Translation: The posts by Pushback, Teresa Green and the article by Crikey are completely wrong. This is serious.

It is serious for a number of reasons. Firstly, the virus is a new species never before seen. It is highly infectious.

If it is so infectious why do so few have it considering it has been around for about a month and those that do have it have mixed with thousands of people at airports and been in very close proximity to hundreds onboard long haul flights?

Level 5 response does not seem to tally with the rate of spread?

Mickjoebill

ozangel

30th Apr 2009, 15:12

Give sandra a break... she's employed to 'read'. I should be so lucky!

mickjoebill

30th Apr 2009, 15:17

Google say that 40% of searches involve a health question.
In the United States they have found that there is a close relationship between how many people search for flu-related topics and how many people actually have flu symptoms.

They have mapped instances where flu related terms has been searched in mexico over the last 2 months.

Google Flu Trends | How does this work? (http://www.google.org/about/flutrends/how.html)
Google Flu Trends | Mexico (http://www.google.org/flutrends/intl/en_mx/)

It shows a peak a few weeks ago and then a decline back to normal levels.
The peak of a few weeks ago is no more than peaks for the last 4 years and half the peak of 2003.

So the show is over?

Maybe not, in 1968 the Hong Kong flu took a year to reach the USA, where 32000 died.

There appears to be a trend in the last three Pandemics
1918 Spanish flu killed 40 million
1957 Asian flu killed 2 million
1968 Hong kong flu killed 1 million.

Mickjoebill

Sunfish

30th Apr 2009, 18:31

Lodown:

Obviously, by the way the WHO is treating this, it is regarded as serious. Schools are closing in the US for two weeks, but that action is seemingly causing more problems than it attempts to solve. Parents have to stay home from work to look after the kids and the kids are congregating in public places regardless. I, like many, try to look for a balanced coverage of the circumstances and seek opinions of those knowledgeable on the subject for advice. It doesn't help to be a doomsayer on the subject, assuming the worst case scenario, as many in the media attempt to highlight. It yet could be an isolated development and a mild form of influenza. It doesn't help to spread panic when, for most people, they have little control over the outcome.

Firstly, the WHO is about a week behind the action according to the epidemiologists. This thing may last for up to Eighteen months and it is only just starting.

Secondly, the closing of schools was always known to be going to cause trouble. There are an infinity of scientific papers on the subject of that because it is one of a range of NPI's (Non pharmaceutical interventions) that are known to slow the spread of a pandemic should it occur. Public health professionals have been studying these matters for decades.

To put it another way, the closing of schools, restaurants, churches and the cancellation of public events is not a knee jerk reaction by scared politicians, it's a recommended course of action called social distancingthat has been studied and debated to death for Thirty plus years. Furthermore, it won't stop the pandemic, it will merely slow it, and yes, we know about teenagers and shopping malls, you are going to need a set of handcuffs.

Thirdly, the only "balance" applicable at the moment regards the question of the Case Fatality Rate of the first, and perhaps second and third waves of the flu. We already know that the attack rate (infectiousness) is rather high, although the reliable figures will have to wait until the epidemiologists can get enough accurate data.

Fourthly. I am not a doomsayer. The papers are filled with garbage on the subject. The reality is that you have not seen anything yet. If you go to the websites mentioned (especially Flu Wiki) you will start to learn that this event has not even properly begun. The peak of the first(and hopefully only) wave will occur in about Three months from now unless this thing fizzles out, which it currently shows no intention of doing. Please go and read about it and the mathematical modelling, conducted by epidemiologists, that has been going on for at least Thirty years.

What I am strongly suggesting to you is that you apply the same discipline to understanding what is happening and, what is going to happen, as you would put into your flying. There are precautions you can take. There are preparations you should make to mitigate the effects of this on you and your family. All major companies have pandemic plans, so should you and your family.

Mickjoebill, W.H.O. have revised the pandemic levels Three times in the last Eighteen months under the Directorship of Margaret Chan. Each time she has pushed the trigger points deeper forward into a developing pandemic. Under the Two previous standards we should have been at level 6 last week, but she revised them again only days before declaring level 4 and was pushed by events to level Five Two days later. You will probably see Level Six this weekend. Chan's reasoning for this is problematic and highly political because there are economic and political consequences of declaring pandemics and Chan is a highly political animal. There are also going to be massive geopolitical upheavels if this is severe because of what it might do to the populations of China and India.

Furthermore, the 1918-1919 Pandemic had a Case Fatality Rate around only 2.5%, it started with a fairly "mild" wave in the Northern Spring of 1918 as well. Furthemore, life at that time was a lot more rural, people were not packed into badly ventilated office buildings and shopping malls. Though we have better medicines and knowledge these days, our hospital system will be overwhelmed in a very few weeks if this goes badly. The damage and danger is not just a result of the lethality of the disease. Imagine a situation when around 20% - 30% of the population is incapacitated at once and the economic dislocation that would cause to the closely coupled global supply chains that support our society today compared to the 1918 economy.

P.S. If you want doomsaying, let me tell you that in a pandemic, Government is about preserving itself, not you.

P.P.S. And all of you can Thank Christ we live in Australia. We have one of the Four World reference centres for influenza and we have a company (CSL) that can make a vaccine that may be able to stop this thing in its tracks.

Ferchrissake, stop being up that river in Egypt - de nile - and go and do your own research about this matter.

C441

30th Apr 2009, 23:36

Queensland's Chief Medical Officer has this morning made the proclamation that we should all stockpile food and avoid crowds to lessen the likelihood of contracting the latest media flu.:rolleyes:

Excellent. That should ensure the other 43000 that were going to the Gabba tomorrow night will stay home and I'll be able to watch the Bombers in peace without those pesky Lions fans

Lodown

1st May 2009, 00:35

Thanks for further explanation Sunfish. A consulting doctor told my wife's employer not to bother following info from the WHO. The CDC is more up to date and has a better handle on it.

The US VP p1ssed off the US airlines when he mentioned that he has advised his family not to fly for the next few weeks. They're talking lawsuit.

Discussion on US public radio last night on why the WHO declared a level 5. It didn't seem to be warranted according to the interviewees, which has a lot of people wondering whether there is a lot more to swine flu than what is being told.

Vaccine production will take longer than expected. The flu is slower developing in eggs than other flu vaccines.

The other problem is that the airing of this information is giving a lot of very boring people in normally very mundane jobs, the opportunity to grasp their 15 minutes and they're taking it.

phatmike128

1st May 2009, 00:41

I work in Qld Health and we've been receiving email updates twice a day. Here's the latest without the media panic.

Dear Colleagues

Below is the latest update regarding Queenslands swine flu response:
There are no confirmed cases of swine flu in Queensland or Australia
The number of suspect cases in Queensland is now 8.
The World Health Organisation announced a move from phase four to phase five.
Queensland Health is planning, in cooperation with the Commonwealth Government, what to do should a pandemic eventuate in Australia.
All seven of the Queensland based travellers who were on board the New Zealand flight that had confirmed passengers with swine flu, have now been contacted and have received appropriate medical care.
Yesterday, all eight international airports in Australia went on alert.Under positive pratique, the pilot of an aircraft is required to report on the condition of passengers and crew before landing.
Thermal scanning of incoming passengers from aboard international flights has commenced. As well, all passengers aboard all international flights will be asked to complete a health declaration card.
Two Queensland Health nurses are now at Brisbane, Cairns and Gold Coast airports to assess any patients who are sick.
We continue to reinforce to the public the importance of taking precautions to reduce the risk of influenza infection and seek medical advice if experiencing flu-like symptoms.
The Queensland Health website for swine influenza is updated daily www.health.qld.gov.au/swineflu (http://www.health.qld.gov.au/swineflu)Regards

Dr Jeannette Young
Chief Health Officer

4PW's

1st May 2009, 02:07

There are eight confirmed cases of death from swine flu, H1N1, whatever, in Mexico. This from 176 deaths. Why even quote the number 176? Why not quote those who've died last year, or the year before that from the flu, a flu, any flu? EIGHT confirmed deaths from this strain.

I am amazed this is continuing to be considered a disaster. But wait, if it's not a disaster now, it will be soon. Is that right? Just in case you didn't read the above slowly, eight deaths. In total. As of today. In Mexico! When should we panic, exactly?

The real sickness is in those who INSIST on being scared of their own shadows. And if you're not scared of their shadow, they'll tell you YOU are the one who's in denial.

Sunfish

1st May 2009, 04:35

4PW's you are as misinformed as an aviation journalist. This has to be taken seriously until it can be proved that it isn't, something that I hope for.

Political games are being played in Mexico and elsewhere with people pussyfooting about the definitions of "Suspected" and "confirmed", that is why you see the conflicting numbers.

Here are the latest Australian figures, the numbers will go up and down:

Australia - AUS Phase DELAY

Table 1 – Australia – Current cases by confirmation status:

Current Australian Cases Under Investigation: 0600 AEST 1/5/2009
Jurisdictions Suspect Cases Confirmed
ACT 3 0
NSW 85 0
Vic 18 0
Tas 0 0
Qld 10 0
SA 9 0
NT 0 0
WA 15 0
Total 140 0

Note: New South Wales numbers are from their public website. ACT figures from ACT Health. All other figures are taken from NetEpi. Numbers are subject to change

Short_Circuit

1st May 2009, 06:52

Might be a good time to head for Alice Springs for a sabbatical.. :ooh:

Sunfish

1st May 2009, 09:47

Not a bad idea...

2b2

1st May 2009, 10:20

the numbers will go up and down:

the numbers in the right hand column certainly won't go down! 0, nil, nada.

Might be a good time to head for Alice Springs for a sabbatical

at least wait until someone in Australia is confirmed!!

Captain Marvel

1st May 2009, 10:46

Fortunately, I still have plenty stockpiled from the Y2K threat, getting a bit sick of baked beans though. Anyway, Mavis, load up the shotgun!! :ok:

teresa green

1st May 2009, 12:15

Sunfish what is your address, I wil send you a mask and a thermometer, I will also bet you my right n$t, you are still with us in 6 months time.

Chimbu chuckles

1st May 2009, 14:57

Sunfish you REALLY need to get hold of a book called The Science of Fear by Daniel Gardner.

The book is basically about how irrational fear is actually dangerous...and why our brains work the way they do.

It also explains a lot of other interesting facts about our psyche...as in why so many people believe in disastrous global warming when there is actually no strong evidence to support that hypothesis...and a shedload of other stuff...including fears about 'pandemics' and WHY those fears are irrational.

Good read!!:ok:

4PW's

1st May 2009, 15:50

Let's not pick on Sunfish. He's fair dinkum, just doesn't agree with the rest of us.

I'm awake at an odd hour, again. Back from the other side of the world, I am. Two hours here, three hours there; pretty soon my body will know where it is and sleep through the night. That'll be just in time to go back to work.

I'm not an aviation journalist, travel journalist or financial journalist. Sorry if I misled you.

The figures I quoted came from the Financial Times. I didn't know they were misinformed. Do you really think they are? It's a great sub. Pretty inexpensive as an online publication, and very readable. The streaming video section alone is worth the price of US$3.79 a week, online.

We're preparing for global pandemic by taking the kids to the neighbors farm, 45 minutes south of us. Camping, fishing, shooting the ood roo, stargazing at night. I hear Orion is high in the night sky.

I'll buy the book, Chuck, thanks.

Sunfish

1st May 2009, 18:01

Chimbu, I'm not fearful at all. Even that matter, - fear of a pandemic - has been discussed to death and I got over what's called the "adjustment reaction" to this years ago.

I am unsurprised by the reactions demonstrated on by people on this forum because they are typical and all of them have been discussed, even researched, in great depth.

I would like to think the aviation community is more intelligent then the general community.

The reason I am posting here is to encourage Ppruners to read about Influenza Pandemics , preferably at Flu Wiki. That way you won't have an "adjustment reaction" if people start getting crook.

Don't let the apparent "mildness" of this virus fool you either. The damage and deaths caused by a pandemic are caused by the volume of cases overwhelming the health system as well as secondary infections. Don't be confused by the apparent small number of cases either.

What is important is the attack rate (R0) which is a statistical measure of how many people an infected person infects. The attack rate for this thing is very high - it is highly infectious. The growth rate of cases in a pandemic is an exponential function, so it starts small and slow, but the rate accelerates week by week.The first three or four weeks of a pandemic always look unremarkable it's the second month when cases skyrocket. Having said that, the first hospitals in the U.S. are putting up triage tents in parking lots as we speak and schools are starting to close.

If you want to understand the worldwide scale of this thing go here:
: Veratect (Veratect) on Twitter (http://twitter.com/Veratect)

If you want to learn about pandemics, go here: Flu Wiki - Main - Flu Wiki (http://www.fluwikie.com/)

To put it another way, I hope this is a Y2K issue. But all research indicates that we may delay the virus entering Australia, but we won't stop it.

Ultralights

1st May 2009, 21:50

from what i have read, the swine flu has a kill rate of about 3%, same as the regular flu, so if you keep healthy, and heat healthily, you will be fine.

eagle 86

2nd May 2009, 02:15

The krudd government over states everything - climate change - the recession - swine 'flu etc just to cover their @rses because they don't really know. Last year in Oz over 2,000 people died of "normal" 'flu. The QLD government has even suggested stockpiling food/water and bunkering down! Less than 10% of the population is going to be unemployed due to the recession - let me know when we get to 50% then I'll start to worry. A couple of months ago we were all going to be eaten by a plague of sharks - then it was rampaging mobs of salties! Now the collective state governments have discovered that bikies are the next great threat. Give me a break!!
GAGS
E86
PS Who remembers the Y2K phenomena - that was going to send us back to the stone age - if you listened to the "experts"!?

Chimbu chuckles

2nd May 2009, 05:46

I wasn't inferring you were afraid Sunfish merely that The Science Of Fear was a worthwhile read. It explains really well how Govts, NGOs, Corporations etc use fear constantly and why it works with the majority of the population:ok:

I underestimated the Influenza deaths in the US/annum. It is 36000 and over 200,000 worldwide...every year. Big numbers eh?

This is what NGOs and the Media do...they give you the raw number without any context. They will also provide lots of images..the more emotive the better...people wearing masks, little children laying helplessly in hospitals, harried medical staff. And they draw completely irresponsible and inaccurate
comparisons with prior events like the 1918 Pandemic.

200000 worldwide deaths/annum equates to 0.03% of the world population. Doesn't sound so scary now does it?

SARs killed 800 worldwide but mostly in China?

That equates to .000008% just assuming all deaths were in China...the number if you include the world population wont even fit on my calculator.

If we assume for the sake of argument that 'Swine Flu' infects says 3000 people in Mexico that would be .0027% of the Mexican population of circa 110,000 000.

Thus far we are talking 100s of suspected cases not 1000s and 10s of deaths not 100s.

So is all the angst and money wasted on this 'pandemic' worth it?

Doesn't sound like to me.

1000s more people are dying daily from heart attacks, car accidents, normal influenza, diabetes, malaria and a dozen other things...but they dont resonate with the media....too hard to make a scary headline out of Diabetes:ugh:

The reason comparisons in the media to the 1918 pandemic are irresponsible and unreasonable is that in 1918 they didn't even have the most basic knowledge of hygiene nor even the most basic drugs. So called 'experts' who get their face on TV and suggest 'it is just a matter of time before another 1918 size pandemic hits the planet' are being disingenuous to say the least.

4PW glad to see you back flying:ok:

Sunfish

2nd May 2009, 08:30

Chimbu, I'm afraid I have to tell you that it's not the Governments and NGO's that are driving this matter, quite the reverse. They are doing everything in their power to play down the risk.

Ferchrissake read Flu Wiki - Main - Flu Wiki (http://www.fluwikie.com/) and then come back and talk.

Governments everywhere are sending you a message that is about Government surviving a pandemic, not about you surviving a pandemic. This is not tinfoil hat stuff. If there is a bad pandemic, which is not yet sure, then you and your family are in deep ***** on any number of levels, starting with the fact that iof you have any relatives with medical conditions they are going to have difficulty getting treatment, and if you yourself get the flu, and you develop complications (ie secondary infections) then it's Syonara mate.

Ferchrissake read Flu Wiki - Main - Flu Wiki (http://www.fluwikie.com/) and then come back and talk.

teresa green

2nd May 2009, 11:22

Why don't we all start eating just cabbage, surely there has never been cabbage flu? I am not going anywhere until I have worked my way thru my rough red collection and my viagra tablets, then and only then am I prepared to do my last circuit.:E

ZEEBEE

2nd May 2009, 12:25

Ferchrissake read Flu Wiki - Main - Flu Wiki and then come back and talk.

Wikipedia is starting to be about as reliable and factual as our guvmints.

My old man always told me "beware of half-truths...you may have the wrong half "

And that's the biggest problem with Wikipedia and government propoganda, you only get half....usually only the bit they want you to see or hear that distracts us from asking the hard questions.:=

So far the stats are making this a pretty big yawn. :zzz::suspect:

Chimbu chuckles

2nd May 2009, 18:10

Chimbu, I'm afraid I have to tell you that it's not the Governments and NGO's that are driving this matter, quite the reverse. They are doing everything in their power to play down the risk.

Panic spread | Herald Sun Andrew Bolt Blog (http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/panic_spread/)

Ya think?

Bradley Marsh

2nd May 2009, 21:11

Does anyone here think the WHO is wrong to raise the Pandemic Alert Level to 6? It means Pandemic Imminent.

This may be a starting point so that we are all debating (if there is any debate) from a poistion of knowledge, not guesswork. WHO | Swine influenza (http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2009/h1n1_20090429/en/index.html)

Do you understand what a pandemic is? What causes it? What the potential outcomes are? What you should or should not do? perhaps this may help. An interview with Dr Michael Osterholm. CurEvents.com - A Global Current Events Discussion Forum - Minnesota Monthly - Osterholm on the Perils and Politics of Avian Flu (http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=43609)

This a link from 11JAN06. CurEvents.com - A Global Current Events Discussion Forum - Snowy Owl-Interviews With the Experts (http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?p=292508#post292508) It is a series of interviews with some of the worlds leading lighhts on Influenza A, virology, epidemiology etc. They were interviewed at a time when there was serious concern about H5N1 evolving into a pandemic but the information they provide is still germane today.

The world authorities are giving their collective considered opinion. They say a pandemic is imminent. I am not one to disregard the experts in any field. Make up your own minds of course but instead of wild conjecture and personal attacks perhaps we should all focus on seeking the truth.

For the professional Pilots amongst us this is just another issue that needs a bit of applied CRM .. it's about what's right .. not who's right and then make good decisions.

Cheers,

Brad

AbsoluteAltitude

3rd May 2009, 00:24

Out for tea in Brisbane on Saturday night I found out that the new CEO of the Civil Aviation Safety Authority, Australia has placed a ban on staff travel due to the influenza oubreak.

The CASA CEO apparently stated in an e-mail to all staff on Friday 1st of May that all travel is banned for OHS reasons as the CEO is exercising his "Duty of Care".

If it is so dangerous to travel then he also has a duty of care to all Australians. Doesn't he?

So why is CASA at odds with the Minister for Health and the World Health Organisation? The CEO is completely out of step with the WHO's information released on the same day. Interesting that this WHO information wasn't given any airing in the media.

CASA's reputation is bound to take a severe pasting over this given that the CEO has now joined the media hype, panic and the great uninformed.

If it is truly dangerous to travel then the CEO of CASA has a duty of care to all the airlines, flight crew, cabin crew, check-in staff and the public and he should be getting the entire industry to shut down.

I wonder if the Minister for Transport and Minister for Health will back up the CASA CEO for his courageous decision?

Maybe I can use it as an excuse with my airline and say that I can't work this week because even the CEO of CASA says its too dangerous to travel?

WHO update 1 May 2009 shown below.

You decide.:confused:

John.

No rationale for travel restrictions

1 May 2009 -- </SPAN>WHO is not recommending travel restrictions related to the outbreak of the influenza A(H1N1) virus. Today, international travel moves rapidly, with large numbers of individuals visiting various parts of the world. Limiting travel and imposing travel restrictions would have very little effect on stopping the virus from spreading, but would be highly disruptive to the global community.
Influenza A(H1N1) has already been confirmed in many parts of the world. The focus now is on minimizing the impact of the virus through the rapid identification of cases and providing patients with appropriate medical care, rather than on stopping its spread internationally. Furthermore, although identifying the signs and symptoms of influenza in travellers can be an effective monitoring technique, it is not effective in reducing the spread of influenza as the virus can be transmitted from person to person before the onset of symptoms. Scientific research based on mathematical modelling indicates that restricting travel will be of limited or no benefit in stopping the spread of disease. Historical records of previous influenza pandemics, as well as experience with SARS, have validated this point.
Travellers can protect themselves and others by following simple recommendations related to travel aimed at preventing the spread of infection. Individuals who are ill should delay travel plans and returning travellers who fall ill should seek appropriate medical care. These recommendations are prudent measures which can limit the spread of many communicable diseases and not only influenza A(H1N1).

welcome_stranger

3rd May 2009, 01:11

This is getting very boaring, for us in Australia normal a hygiene regime will keep the average person safe as you can possibly be without living in a bubble - at the moment you have more chance of dieing from being run over by a bus.

Let the talking heads and ill-informed pollies run around like chooks with their head chopped off. The rest of us should just take our normal precautions against colds/flu that we take at this time of year and get on with our lives.

Too many people are crying "WOLF"

//Satire On//

Sow on that note I'll retire to by hermetically sealed bunker and activate the atmospheric recycler with .05 micron filters with oxygen regeneration and won't come out until there is only myself and half a dozen nubile young beautiful ladies left alive, then I'll go about repopulating this green and verdant planet.

//Satire Off//

ampclamp

3rd May 2009, 07:06

I think govts WHO and CDC et al are right to be very cautious.It looks as if mexico have talked it up too much or other factors have contributed to the deaths there.
If they did little or nothing AND it did explode we'd be a tad peeved yes?
Its their job to warn inform prevent immunise etc.I'd rather a warning for something that in the end is contained than negligence and avoidable deaths.
The tabloid press and low brow TV shows are having a field day.So much tripe being reported.

With the flu pandemic in / around 1918 millions died.Sure it was a low % of those who actually contracted the disease but caution is warranted.Too many people already die too soon from preventable diseases.
One thing I did note from the 1918 outbreak reports was that in the early days it was not that serious but a second wave of flu ( possibly a mutation of the 1st virus? ) caused the real damage.

Bradley Marsh

3rd May 2009, 08:33

That amplclamp is exactly what is causing the concern about H1N1/2009 amongst the worlds experts.

A pandemic strain must meet three criteria:

1. A new virus must emerge first. This normally occurs due to antigenic drift or recombination in a host species (often swine or aquatic avians). H1N1/2009 is a whole new critter.

2. It must be novel to humans and able to cause disease therein = we have no immunity which also normally infers a high CFR (Case Fatality Rate). This is a big difference to seasonal Flu A strains. In a pandemic not just a couple of hundred thusand die. The numbers are waaaay higher for a couple of reasons!

3. It must be easily and sustainably spread between humans = have an affinity for the cells in the upper respiratory tract for aerosol infection (this is why H5N1 is not a pandemic .. it only reproduces well in humans deep in the lungs so it is hard to get it there) or able to survive for lengthy periods on surfaces contacted by multiple persons and then able to infect them. Flu A is already good at this. It is also why the main focus of pandemic prevention is on personal hygiene, hand washing, cough etiquette, learning not to touch your face etc.

An Influenza A pandemic normally occurs over an extended period and occurs in waves, each succeeding wave having a greater impact (CFR) than the last. It isn't the death toll that is the real problem for us. It is the load it places on our society in terms of already overstretched health care, supply lines, utilities etc. We are better off in care and science depth than 1918 but have nowhere near the resources to deal with the number that may fall ill in a pandemic. Today we live in a 'just in time' society. Disrupt the supply chains even a little and see what happens.

This is why the experts are worried. H1N1 has met the three criteria in spades. It will be some time before we really know if it will go pandemic or not and it will be too late to get ready once teh first wave really gets going. That is why you are being warned now. It is your choice to take it or leave it.

Cheers,

Brad

Sunfish

3rd May 2009, 21:06

Bradley gets it.

An Influenza A pandemic normally occurs over an extended period and occurs in waves, each succeeding wave having a greater impact (CFR) than the last. It isn't the death toll that is the real problem for us. It is the load it places on our society in terms of already overstretched health care, supply lines, utilities etc. We are better off in care and science depth than 1918 but have nowhere near the resources to deal with the number that may fall ill in a pandemic. Today we live in a 'just in time' society. Disrupt the supply chains even a little and see what happens.

This is why the experts are worried. H1N1 has met the three criteria in spades. It will be some time before we really know if it will go pandemic or not and it will be too late to get ready once teh first wave really gets going. That is why you are being warned now. It is your choice to take it or leave it.

The CFR isn't the thing. The 1918 pandemic had a CFR of "only" 2.5%. It's the massive number of cases in a short time (think 20% of the population - say in Australia 4 million), that totally overwhelms the healthcare system. Now even if just One percent of those 4 million cases die of flu or complications, that's 40,000 deaths in three months or less. This is hardly "business as usual".

Please read Flu Wiki - please note that this is not wikipedia at all but among other things a collection of reference works and commentary on Influenza in general.

Flu Wiki - Main - Flu Wiki (http://fluwikie.com)

Furthermore, as you do your research, you will discover that the W.H.O. is a highly political organisation, as is our Government, and what they tell you is what is in their best interest to tell you, not necessarily what is in your best interests.

assasin8

4th May 2009, 07:36

If people stayed home when sick, maybe spare a thought for their healthy fellow workers who would prefer not to be coughed upon, then the world really would be a better place! :mad:

Angle of Attack

4th May 2009, 11:52

It's all very good for people to have confirmed cases but quite frankly there is NO cases in Australia. And even if you have it seems it is a no brainer. Oh shucks 11 people have died in almost 3 weeks! Lol! Quite frankly this is a distraction not a real issue. Lets move to the next issue those saying this is one have surely succomed to the media hype ^^. If you dont believe me send me a message in a month:ok: Why are you so gullible btw?? hehe!

Sunfish

4th May 2009, 22:24

AA, you do not know if any Australians are infected. What we know is that no suspected cases have been confirmed. What we also know is that we cannot keep the flu out, the best we can do is DELAY the onset of a pandemic if we are lucky and work hard. Thats the phase of the National Pandemic Plan we are in right now - DELAY. Thats why we have introduced thermal scanning and health cards etc., it may help us catch a case or two, but sooner or later an asymptomatic individual is going to fly in and then come down with Flu Four days later.

The other thing you need to understand is that Influenza pandemics follow an exponential law. It's a bit like a bushfire. It starts with a tiny little spark, for the first few minutes it's easy to put out, but then it gathers strength. All the stuff about washing your hands, using a handkerchief and isolating your self if you get sick, closing schools and public events is aimed at removing both fuel and sources of ignition from the Influenza bushfire.

The other thing you need to understand is that even if a Pandemic is mild, at the height of it, there could be upwards of 2 million Australians sick with it at once, even if its mild. That is going to swamp the health care system even if people don't die.

Bradley Marsh

5th May 2009, 16:54

Back from work yet again so here is a bit of an update on the webpage I wrote a few years back:
Flu A Page (http://www.bradleymarsh.com.au/homepage/influenzaa.html)

I can only suggest that rather than playing the man you chaps play the ball. Go learn a bit first and then argue. There is plenty of room for differeing opinions but if you are ignorant of the facts then you having nothing to stand on. Oh and at PPRuNe .. ALWAYS keep your Bull**** filter firmly in place! :}

Cheers,

Brad

Bradley Marsh

6th May 2009, 07:38

Just as a brief primer for those of you actually interested in Professional Aviation and what a pandemic - any pandemic - means

Please start here: None of what is written below is conjecture. I am simply relaying the information provided by the worlds foremost experts on Influenza A, virology, epidemiology and what a pandemic may mean for us all. Lets start with a set of interviews conducted late in 2005 with many of the world leaders in the relevant fields, so if you are in any doubt about the chances of a Pandemic occurring you might consider reading this 11JAN06 set of interviews by the worlds experts (http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?p=292508#post292508)

So what is a pandemic? It is a world wide epidemic. That's all. It is a widespread pathogen. It does not imply any particular level of morbidity or mortality. But to to become a pandemic strain a pathogen we should be concerned about (in this case Influenza A) must meet three criteria:
1. It must be an emergent virus - that is it has not been seen before. Each virus has a host species in which it is endemic but which usually remains asymptomatic. Typically birds (H5N1), Pigs (H1N1) etc. The host species just acts as a reservoir. Occasional a virus will change such that it can jump the species barrier. A virus can change (some same say mutate) in one of two ways. Antigenic drift - this is a result of the sloppy way copies of the virus are reproduced in the host cell, primarily because a virus is so simple it is like building a house with only roughed out plans.. the end result is often different to the original. Reassortment is when two different virus infect the same cell there may be some swapping of genetic info between the virus' so that a new one emerges containing properties of both precursors. The guts of it is that Viruses change and fast!

2. The new virus must be able to infect humans and cause disease therein {otherwise who cares?} This is generally a property of being a novel virus to us, that is we have no pre-existing immunity through exposure to previous strains of the particular virus. The current H1N1/2009 strain seems to be affecting mostly people born after the mid1960s. This is possibly due to the exposure of older people to the 1967 pandemic strain of Influenza A. This is theory only at this stage. Pandemic strains kill an additional demographic to seasonal influenza (normally the young and the old) in addition to it's usual victims - those with depressed or inadequate immune function. Another cause of mortality is called a 'cytokine storm'. In effect it is a healthy bodies extreme reaction to a pathogen that is so over the top it attacks healthy cells as well. This is why many victims in 1918 were healthy people between age 18-45.

3. It must be easily transmissible and able to reproduce successfully within humans. Virus is transmitted in two ways. Aerosolisation - someone coughs or sneezes and you inhale their nasal secretions, mucus etc .. pretty yucky eh? :uhoh: Contact transmission - they contaminate a surface, you then touch it and then touch your face (nose/mouth/eyes) and self infect. BTW a virus can remain inert on a surface for days! The best way to avoid infection is get no closer than about 6 feet to someone and the main one is to practice good hygiene (wash your hamds well and often) and stop touching your face!

Pandemics are different every time. The received wisdom is that they come in waves of some weeks. Each wave more deadly than the first. 1918 started as a relatively mild Flu and got steadily worse. Towards the end there is anecdotal evidence of people being asymptomatic as they get on the bus to go home and dead just hours later. Another danger of flu is you are contagious for up to 48 hrs BEFORE becoming ill and for some days after you have apparently recovered. This means you can be spreading the disease around the world before you even get a temperature. Do you wonder why the WHO is taking this seriously? There is no question an Influenza A pandemic will occur. What version of Flu A it will be, when, what it will look look like and how it will affect us is a different story. So these posts are about being prepared, both with knowledge about how it happens and what each of us can do about it.

Cheers,

Brad

heads_down

6th May 2009, 23:20

US swine flu cases jump to 642

From correspondents in Washington

Agence France-Presse

May 07, 2009 07:25am

THE number of confirmed US swine flu cases surged by 60 per cent today to 642 from 403, with infections reported in three more states and the death toll now at two.

Forty-one US states are now reporting confirmed cases of (A)H1N1 flu, and the US death toll has gone up, with the first US citizen reported to have died from swine flu.

The victim was a woman in her thirties "with chronic underlying health conditions" who died in a Texas hospital on Tuesday.

"This reminds us that influenza can be a very serious infection and it's one that we need to continue to take very seriously," Richard Besser, acting head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which compiles the daily flu tally, said.

The death of the American woman was the second in the United States after a Mexican toddler died last month while visiting Texas.

It was also only the second death outside Mexico, the epicenter of the outbreak, where the authorities on Wednesday upped the death toll from swine flu to 42 from 29, but insisted the worst of the epidemic was over.

Mr Besser, however, said he expected the virus to continue spreading in the United States and around the world, and fully expected the outbreak to become a pandemic.

"With the number of cases in other countries, I would be suprised if we don't get to level six" on the World Health Organization's six-phase pandemic alert scale, Mr Besser said as Poland and Sweden reported their first confirmed cases and other countries in Europe extended their tally of (A)H1N1 cases.

Mr Besser said there were around 850 probable cases - where a first test comes back positive for type A influenza - in 44 states.

Earlier this week, he said that the overwhelming majority of probable cases eventually become confirmed cases, meaning results of subsequent tests for the (A)H1N1 virus have come back positive.

Bradley Marsh

7th May 2009, 07:35

There has recently been released a new test for Flu A. It is called PCR (Polymerase Chain reaction). It is much faster than traditional identification techniques (culturing). There will be a jump in the number of confirmed cases of H1N1 over the next couple of weeks as the PCR test is used to clear the backlog of swabs awaiting ID. Best thing to do is listen to the experts. If they say it is a pandemic then be assured it is. WHO will not move to Phase 6 unless it is sure.

Cheers,

Brad

philr

8th May 2009, 08:59

Hey Sunny

Me thinks that a Logistical growth model may be more appropriate....try a wiki!

FP:ugh:

Mr. Hat

8th May 2009, 11:01

Its been pretty quiet on the media front, I wonder if this one might just dissapear quietly.

Bradley Marsh

8th May 2009, 17:51

It is possible that it just may disappear quietly. A/H1N1/2009 is following a similar pattern to the original A/H1N1/1918 inasmuch as it entered human circulation towards the end of the Northern Hemisphere winter and was relatively mild.

It was only the successive waves than exhibited increased morbidity and mortality and of course had the benefit of a veritable diaspora with all those young men leaving Europe and heading home.

The guts of it is we still just don't know if this will become a pandemic and if so what CFR we will see. Certainly there is a lot of attention focussed on the Southern Hemisphere as we head into our Flu Season. It may, or may not, be an indicator of things to come.

So just before we all go back to our usual daily grind please be aware that the 'people that know' are still very wary. Click here for an interesting viewpoint http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v459/n7243/full/459009a.html (http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v459/n7243/full/459009a.html)

CDC expects more infections, hospitalizations and deaths over the coming weeks. CDC H1N1 Flu (http://www.cdc.gov/H1N1Flu/)

There are now over 2500 cases world wide, the majority of which are still in the Americas. This is a function of a number of factors inclduing the ability to detect and identify H1N1 (the new PCR test is helping a lot) and the serial interval (how long it takes from one contagious person becoming symptomatic till the next person they infected doing the same).

In reality there is nothing you or I can do to prevent a pandemic. What we can do however is be aware of what it means - and if it does happen be as prepared as we can be. This is not a panic call. It is the same as we as professional aviators spend our professional lives doing, imagining the worst and making sure we have done our homework.

Cheers,

Brad

Borneo Wild Man

9th May 2009, 00:12

PERSPECTIVE -

36,000 people die from seasonal influenza every year in the US.

I note the media doesn't print actual active or recovered cases - good news obviously doesn't sell .

Bradley Marsh

9th May 2009, 00:26

Orangutan, your point is what exactly in relation to seasonal flu?

Might I ask if you have read the thread? Perhaps done some research into what a pandemic strain of a pathogen actually means?

Not having a shot at you at all mate, just asking if you are informed by anything other than MSM.

Cheers,

Brad

ZEEBEE

9th May 2009, 01:56

Bradley

If they say it is a pandemic then be assured it is. WHO will not move to Phase 6 unless it is sure.

While I don't argue with yourself or Sunfish regarding the "potential" severity of this, I do have some problems with that statement above.

Being a born again skeptic, I am mindful that the WHO is a political body that is continually looking for relevance.
And relevance comes to them in these imagined or real pandemics in buckets, so it would be un-natural for them not to whoop it up.

If it goes away, they can bask in the glow of "having fixed it" and get funding...or if it gets worse, then "we have to fix it" and they get funding.

It's a no brainer for them really.

Bradley Marsh

9th May 2009, 02:37

Between a virus and a hard place : Article : Nature (http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v459/n7243/full/459009a.html)
Between a virus and a hard place
Top of page
Abstract

Complacency, not overreaction, is the greatest danger posed by the flu pandemic. That's a message scientists would do well to help get across.

Damned if you do, damned if you don't. The emergence of a new, swine-flu-related H1N1 strain of influenza in people in North America, with sporadic cases elsewhere in the world, has left the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta, Georgia, and the World Health Organization (WHO) in Geneva in an unenviable position.

For more than a week now, these two agencies have been holding daily media briefings to keep the world informed about the rapidly unfolding story. There is ample reason for concern: a new flu virus has emerged to which humans have no immunity, and it is spreading from person to person. That has happened only three times in the past century. The pandemics of 1957 and 1968 were mild in most people but still killed many, and that of 1918 — which also seemed mild in its early phases — killed at least 70 million people worldwide. As Nature went to press, the WHO had already upped its pandemic threat level from 3 to 5, and a final step to its highest level of 6 — a global pandemic — seemed only a matter of time.

Yet at this early stage, the consequences of the pandemic are so uncertain that communicating the risks is a delicate matter. Influenza viruses evolve rapidly, making it extremely difficult to predict what this strain might look like a few months from now. If the agencies alert people and the pandemic fizzles out, they will be accused of hyping the threat and causing unnecessary disruption and angst. Indeed, just such a media backlash is already beginning, because most cases so far have been mild. But if the agencies downplay the threat and an unprepared world is hit by a catastrophe on the scale of 1918, the recriminations will come as fast as you can say 'Hurricane Katrina'.

The risk is not hyping the pandemic threat, but underplaying it

To their credit, the WHO and the CDC have avoided the kind of falsely reassuring officialese that has too often accompanied past crises. As Peter Sandman, a risk-communication consultant based in Princeton, New Jersey, aptly puts it: "Anyone who's paying attention gets it that we just don't know if this thing is going to fizzle, hang in abeyance for months, disappear and then reappear, spread but stay mild, replicate or exceed the 1918 catastrophe, or what. The reiteration of uncertainty and the insistence on what that means — e.g., advice may change; local strategies may differ; inconsistencies may be common — has been almost unprecedentedly good."

Also encouraging is that many governments now have at least some kind of pandemic plan in place, thanks to the scare over the H5N1 avian flu virus earlier this decade. Five years ago very few of them did. But many of those plans contain an important element that has been conspicuously absent in the current communication by governments and public-health authorities: during a severe pandemic, there is only so much they can do. Much of the response will depend on local communities taking action for themselves.

Scientists can help, by serving as credible voices to inform their communities of the risks and uncertainties, and by pointing people to the pandemic-planning resources on the CDC and WHO websites, the PandemicFlu.gov site, and many others. For the moment, the risk is not hyping the pandemic threat, but underplaying it. We know a tsunami is coming. No one can say whether it will be just a large wave, or a monstrous one, but it is time to start thinking about at least being ready to move to higher ground.Between a virus and a hard place : Article : Nature (http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v459/n7243/full/459009a.html)

Bradley Marsh

9th May 2009, 02:41

CDC H1N1 Flu (http://www.cdc.gov/H1N1Flu/)

The ongoing outbreak of novel influenza A (H1N1) continues to expand in the United States. CDC expects that more cases, more hospitalizations and more deaths from this outbreak will occur over the coming days and weeks.

CDC continues to take aggressive action to respond to the expanding outbreak. CDC’s response goals are to reduce spread and illness severity, and provide information to help health care providers, public health officials and the public address the challenges posed by this emergency.

CDC is issuing updated interim guidance daily in response to the rapidly evolving situation.
Antiviral Guidance

CDC has issued guidance for health care providers on the use of antiviral medications during the current outbreak. The priority use for influenza antiviral drugs is to treat severe influenza illness and people who are at high risk of serious influenza-related conditions.
School Guidance

At this time, CDC recommends the primary means to reduce spread of influenza in schools focus on early identification of ill students and staff, staying home when sick, and good cough etiquette and frequent hand washing. Decisions about school closure should be at the discretion of local authorities based on local considerations. (See the School Guidance.)
Increased Testing

CDC has developed a PCR diagnostic test kit to detect this novel H1N1 virus and has now distributed test kits to all 50 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. The test kits are being shipped internationally as well. This will allow states and other countries to test for this new virus. This increase in testing capacity is likely to result in an increase in the number of reported confirmed cases in this country, which should provide a more accurate picture of the burden of disease in the United States.

skylarker

9th May 2009, 05:07

NSW woman tests positive to swine flu | smh.com.au (http://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw-woman-tests-positive-to-swine-flu-20090509-aybx.html)

heads_down

9th May 2009, 08:42

you do realise in instances like this, your team manager suddenly double up as a medical practitioner telling you not to worry, you did not get it.

It is very predictable what they will say.

Any procedures in place after this? Like gloves and mask? Absolutely not, they figured you are the one who would be very ill, not them, they don't care.

QCC will spin you around once again that no you did not have to worry, nothing will happen to anyone.

You wait and see.

Crew rest.

9th May 2009, 23:31

Yes September, a Swine 'flu "information"m page that is brought to you by the people who also sell the 'ION-70' air purifier (kills the swine flu virus and other viruses-fast!), the "P2 standard face mask" and "Purel (what evr the f#$% that is) that kills germs and bacteria instantly.
Presumably cures baldness, lumbago and dandruff---"HURRY!!--WHILE STOCKS LAST....!!":p

Bradley Marsh

10th May 2009, 22:52

I hope this willprvide some persepective for those who still think this is a media beat-up or over-reaction. I think the current number of identified cases is over 4000 atm. Not many but that isn't the point.

Swine flu: features of past pandemics : Effect Measure (http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2009/05/swine_flu_lessons_from_past_pa.php#more)

Cheers,

Brad

Bradley Marsh

12th May 2009, 17:26

A bit more info:
WHO | Assessing the severity of an influenza pandemic (http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/assess/disease_swineflu_assess_20090511/en/index.html)

D.Lamination

13th May 2009, 00:17

I wasn't feeling so well the other day so I called the Swine Flu hotline - but all I got was crackling:}:}:}

Bradley Marsh

13th May 2009, 00:20

D.Lamniation:
You're just hogging the attention.

:p

Angle of Attack

16th May 2009, 08:55

Ha Ha What attention? Call me when this non-event becomes an event!
There is still SARS there is still Bird Flu, there is still Swine Flu, quite frankly, I am more likely killed by a stupid drunk driver!

Everyone can point to articles but the good old GUT feeling usually works out! hehe!

Chimbu chuckles

16th May 2009, 09:05

Hey Conehead how many people have died of normal influenza since the beginning of this overhyped 'pandemic'?

Worldwide about 6000 per week...so roughly 24000 since the WHO and the media starting ramping up the rhetoric on 'swine flu'?

Deaths confirmed as a result of swine flu to date...around 60? And all bar a couple in Mexico?

I am going to suggest to you 'Swine' Flu is less dangerous than normal influenza.:hmm:

Mr. Hat

16th May 2009, 10:52

World surge in swine flu cases | National News | News.com.au (http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25491733-421,00.html)

Square Bear

16th May 2009, 10:58

There was probably a stage in history when the "normal" flu "ONLY" killed 60 people as well!

Chimbu chuckles

16th May 2009, 12:10

And your point would be?

Bradley Marsh

18th May 2009, 18:07

Hi Chuck.

I don't waste the effort in PPRuNe style 'debates'. The facts speak for themseleves old mate and a little research and historical study goes a long way.

I am not here to eductae anyone but I do take the time to bring info to the attention of my colleagues who may be interested.

Don't listen to me, listen to the worlds foremost authorities and consider what is prudent in that light.

Cheers,

Brad

Sunfish

18th May 2009, 21:11

Current situation is that the W.H.O. will not declare a phase Six pandemic, they keep changing the definition on the run.

Just hope we can keep it out of Australia for a few more weeks.

We still don't know the case fatality rate, we know that its below 1% when ventilators, Tamiflu and intensive care is available.

What we don't know is what the CFR will be when medical facilities are swamped and those technologies are no longer available. Bear in mind that the 1918 pandemic had a CFR of around 2.5%.

By way of example, assuming there is a 1918 style first wave in the U.S., that means about 100 million people get sick over about Three months. About 10% of cases currently require hospitalisation and intensive care.

That means about 10 million people will require intensive care.

There are only about a million hospital beds in the U.S. and around 150,000 of those are intensive care.

Do you now understand that it is not the lethality of the disease that is the killer, its the magnitude - the huge number of concurrent cases?

It's not going to be good for the airline industry either - passenger numbers will fall, but on a personal level the bug predominantly attacks younger folk 15 - 35 and I would imagine that a DAME would not like you to fly for at least a month after recovery.

heads_down

18th May 2009, 22:10

A DAME would not let you fly for a month? This has got to be the biggest joke I have ever heard. Once I was hit by a atlas box cover and required stitches near the eye socket. When I was at the DAME surgery, the team manager called and the DAME ask me if I had any duties the following three days, I said I will probably be on "A" the DAME then chat with the team manager and then came back to tell me that he actually wanted me to rest for 3 days until he can remove the stitches, but the team manager told the DAME that I was assigned by ops a very simple Singapore return so that influenced his decision. The DAME said to me that the team manager specifically said it was a very simple one sector trip and back, nothing too stressful, so upon hearing the team manager assured him it was a "simple" trip, he put me back to work.

The DAME did say if it was not a simple trip as the team manager had assured him, he would not let me go to work.

:eek:

Is there any wonder why team managers are the most hated people in the organisation?

4PW's

18th May 2009, 22:50

What airline do you work for?

You couldn't possibly be flight crew, which makes you cabin crew.

Does your Team Manager (what are they?) actually have access to your private medical records with with a qualified medical practitioner?

That's an intriguing post you wrote there.

4PW's

18th May 2009, 23:07

Bradley, Sunfish, will you help me out here?

I think the W.H.O. confirmed H1N1 cannot be contained in one area, or even several areas. Restricting the passage of people on airliners won't help keep the flu out of Australia or any other country. Is this right?

If it's not true, what are the measures we can best use to keep the flu out of Australia, and are they being utilized?

If the W.H.O. is on the money, why do you propogate the hype in 2009 instead of waiting till next year.

Time magazine just ran a copy saying it's all over until 2010. I figure they've used the good oil in greasing their rag. Are they quoting reliable sources?

You, and Time magazine, identify the world's health facilities as unable able to cope with forecasted numbers of infected people. Time differs in reporting we don't have to worry about that inconvenient truth until 2010.

If that date were an absolute, is there sufficient time to prepare, and if so, why do you keep banging on about how we're stuffed NOW, not later?

Lastly, isn't Tamiflu a dud if H1N1 mutates, as virus' are prone to do?

Does that mean we're doomed?

I know I am.

It's all a mystery to me, but I'm not at all worried. Hungry, but not worried.

CazbahKid

19th May 2009, 00:40

Do people STILL believe in this swine flu nonsense?? :eek:

The media was only flogging it to begin with because not only does it make a great story, but it also takes the public's mind off the recession, which until then had dominated our TV screens. Now that the budget has been released, the media has something else to claw onto and funnily enough we haven't heard a single thing about the "deadly" swine flu since.

Lodown

19th May 2009, 01:53

That's the way the media works. Just because the flu is off the headlines, doesn't mean it's not out there still.

So far, the death rate is no different from regular flu. H1N1 is noteworthy in its ability to attack very healthy, young people and the fact that it's active at the start of northern summer. It should go quiet for a while as kids in the northern hemisphere break for summer, but it is expected to rebound in autumn. The concern is in the numbers it may effect and if it mutates to something more severe.

There's no reason to panic, but likewise, there's no harm in keeping informed.

heads_down

19th May 2009, 01:58

4PW

What airline do you work for?

You couldn't possibly be flight crew, which makes you cabin crew.

Does your Team Manager (what are they?) actually have access to your private medical records with with a qualified medical practitioner?

That's an intriguing post you wrote there.
I think it is a foregone conclusion Qantas does not really police privacy and confidential records they way they police their cabin crew.

It is quite common to hear and see team managers talking about other people's medical condition casually over the phone with DAME without a care in the world. I think this practice has gone on forever. Oddly no one cares. In fact I even know that any CSM can waltz through any crews performance review. This has happened in the Perth Brisbane Melbourne base (smaller bases where management cover up their mistakes all the time) in QCC it is a little trickier but not entirely impossible for these managers to access anyone who is not a manager's files That's just the culture in Qantas: Absolute disrespect for each other, and total disregard for the law, like how they go about price fixing without a care in the world about the law.

CazbahKid

19th May 2009, 02:56

Meh, but you have to love the biased Australian media, particularly when people are dying in Mexico (no disrespect intended), yet the #1 headline here is something along the lines of:

"3 PEOPLE IN AUSTRALIA TESTED FOR SWINE FLU"

Get the facts first, then inform us. Just trying to spread unnecessary panic...

Sunfish

19th May 2009, 21:44

4PW's, attempted answers below:

I think the W.H.O. confirmed H1N1 cannot be contained in one area, or even several areas. Restricting the passage of people on airliners won't help keep the flu out of Australia or any other country. Is this right?

Yes, it's right unless we destroy the airline industry, our economy and quarantine ourselves. What we can do, and are doing is DELAY it's arrival in Australia and buy ourselves time to prepare a vaccine and make preparations for when it does arrive.

If it's not true, what are the measures we can best use to keep the flu out of Australia, and are they being utilized?

You should already know the answer to that if you are a professional international pilot. Arriving aircraft don't get automatic pratique any more, health cards are required and there is inbound thermal scanning as well as teams at each international airport. Now that can't pick up asymptomatic cases, but it's a start. When we get a confirmed case, we can at least have a go at contact tracing and blanketing them with Tamiflu as well

If the W.H.O. is on the money, why do you propogate the hype in 2009 instead of waiting till next year.

Time magazine just ran a copy saying it's all over until 2010. I figure they've used the good oil in greasing their rag. Are they quoting reliable sources?

Flu traditionally spreads best in winter. The Northern hemisphere is going into spring/summer, they therefore expect their next fall/winter to be the riskiest time for them. Time is a Northern hemisphere magazine.

You should be aware that the Northern Hemisphere folks are busy watching what happens to us since we are entering our flu season.

You, and Time magazine, identify the world's health facilities as unable able to cope with forecasted numbers of infected people. Time differs in reporting we don't have to worry about that inconvenient truth until 2010.

If that date were an absolute, is there sufficient time to prepare, and if so, why do you keep banging on about how we're stuffed NOW, not later?

If H1N1 arrives in Australia NOW, then the time to prepare is over, it's "come as you are". In a pandemic, there is no way that medical facilities can cope. State and Federal plans are already in place to deal with the overflow as best they can. I would imagine that these plans will be tuned as we get better information on what this bug can do.

The best analogy I've read about its behaviour and possible mutations is that it is like a little puppy dog at present, we don't know what it is going to grow into, a Wolf or a Pekinese?

Lastly, isn't Tamiflu a dud if H1N1 mutates, as virus' are prone to do?

Does that mean we're doomed?

Thank God we live in Australia. We have the tyranny of distance on our side for once. We have our own flu lab at Parkville who, I imagine, are busy on seed strains for a vaccine and CSL can churn out enough for all in Australia pretty quickly.

It's all a mystery to me, but I'm not at all worried. Hungry, but not worried.

To take a leaf from John Howard, "be alert but not alarmed", do you have a plan if you or your family get sick? Do you have kids at school? What if it closes? Does your employer have a pandemic plan? What if you get sick with this bug far from home on a charter or somewhere? These are what you should be thinking about.

teresa green

20th May 2009, 11:17

Check out the nbr of fatal car accident victims in Australia since this last mainly media beatup has started, if it equals he same amount of deaths, then we should start to become concerned, if it doesn't, time to move on to the next scare, last year it was horses, this year it is pigs, next year it will be caused by eating cabbage, the media are reeling the money in, and will extend it as long as possible, meanwhile most Australians this winter will get the good ol common garden flu, survive, and hang out for summer (as usual).

Sunfish

20th May 2009, 20:23

TG:

Check out the number of fatal car accident victims in Australia since this last mainly media beatup has started, if it equals he same amount of deaths, then we should start to become concerned, if it doesn't, time to move on to the next scare, last year it was horses, this year it is pigs, next year it will be caused by eating cabbage, the media are reeling the money in, and will extend it as long as possible, meanwhile most Australians this winter will get the good ol common garden flu, survive, and hang out for summer (as usual

Teresa, you do not understand what you are talking about. I think you are up that river in Egypt - de nile.

It is not the lethality (I Hope!) of the Pandemic Flu that is going to cause the trouble it is the shear number of cases that will appear in a very short time. Please get that into your head.

The "trouble" I'm talking about is the overwhelming of our medical system and also massive absenteeism among the labour force which has the potential to damage the economy severely.

To put it in your own words:

Check out the number of fatal car accident victims in Australia since this last mainly media beatup has started,

Yes, Teresa, and what happens to the injured when there are no hospital beds available for them because they are all occupied by Flu patients?

The outcome of this Pandemic is highly uncertain, and hopefully it may fizzle out, although it shows no signs of doing so. The virus is far more infectious than seasonal Flu at present and, thanks to air travel, it has spread around the world very fast.

The statistics at the moment appear to show:

1. It is highly infectious.

2. The Case fatality rate is less than 1% - but that is with expert medical treatement, intensive care, ventilators etc.

3. 10% of patients require intensive hospital treatment to recover.

4. The growth in case numbers of the virus are following an exponential curve at present - which is what is expected.

Modelling and experience suggests that the Pandemic first wave will peak about 90 days after the start, and at that time around 30% of the population will be infected. In Australia, that would mean around Six Million cases with 10% - 600,000 people requiring hospitalisation - and they aren't going to get it.

Please visit Flu Wiki - Main - Flu Wiki (http://www.fluwikie.com/)

CazbahKid

20th May 2009, 23:42

Don't know if this is just a sick coincidence but....

2007 - Chinese year of the Chicken - Bird Flu Pandemic devastates parts of Asia.

2008 - Chinese year of the Horse - Equine Influenza decimates Australian racing.

2009 - Chinese year of the Pig - Swine Flu Pandemic kills hundreds of pigs and infects hundreds of people sometimes fatally around the globe.

Has any one else noticed this?

It gets worse........

Next year......

2010 - Chinese year of the Cock - what could possibly go wrong?

:}

Borneo Wild Man

21st May 2009, 01:31

Aids has already been mate !!!!

Chimbu chuckles

21st May 2009, 02:58

Modelling and experience suggests that the Pandemic first wave will peak about 90 days after the start,

Bloody computer modeling again....wonder no more why reality never matches the predictions:mad:

Sunfish

21st May 2009, 05:51

Chimbu, pandemics are apparently like slow motion train crashes, this thing is going to drag on for months. Just pray the bloody thing doesn't mutate into a more lethal version.

Borneo Wild Man

21st May 2009, 09:32

Pray ???

DR Sunfish,

Im sure I could find you an NBC suit , 6 mths supply of MREs and about 20 rolls of gaffer tape.

Angle of Attack

21st May 2009, 11:00

Just pray the bloody thing doesn't mutate into a more lethal version.

I don't know about praying also Sunfish! :ok: , but you have hit the nail on the head with this comment. Yes Swine Flu itself is not a major problem most people have symptoms milder than a normal flu, I believe the major worry amongst medical professionals is an interaction between this strain and the seasonal influenza virus, which could mutate into something far more serious.
Of course the normal influenza virus constantly mutates but when it can interact with a different variation originally from a non-human source the potential to mutate into something nasty is far higher.

At the end of the day though its part of life vruses and sicknesses come and go let's just ride the roller coaster! Best we can do is take normal basic Hygiene procedures, or lock ourselves away in a jungle camp somewhere?! :)

AWB_Clerk

22nd May 2009, 15:55

Quote:

"2008 - Chinese year of the Horse - Equine Influenza decimates Australian racing."

No, 2008 was Year of the Rat.

heads_down

23rd May 2009, 06:20

Be Afraid, be very Afraid

ok the prime minister already pre-empt that when the containment is necessary (which is only a matter of time), one needs to be prepared for "disruption" I think loss of revenue is more of an appropriate phrase. It will also be inconveniently disrupt your balance sheets. Insurances will not reimburse loss of income in these sorts of situations.

Scenerios are already painted by the Federal government. Schools shut down, sports matches cancelled, workers stay home. Now what would happen to the borders? Yes Airports would be shut, flights all grounded.

Now if I remembered correctly, AJ had said that if the economy does not pick up, more deep cuts will result in the company.

If a pandemic is raised and borders shut, this would quantify and justify AJ's depper cuts into the already announced cuts. It would have come at a good time as management look to ways and excuses to cut staff and no one even the Union can than say anything.

Best case scenerio, a few days for shut borders and grounded air crafts. Worse case scenerio: unsure.

The economy has not picked up one bit since AJ last spoke to the media about the economy not picking up. With more debt and more deficits and more unemployment and more businesses going into the ground.

Air travel is the last priority as companies look to trim costs and families look to save, The rising Australian currency would mean less and less Americans would even contemplate traveling overseas. The European economy, along with Japan had contracted so much that Britain has lose its AAA credit rating as a country and Germany is struggling as well as Japan GDP is way below what it was after the nuclear bomb in Hiroshima.

The only hope once again, is China and of course Qantas has cut routes to China.

THE Federal Government's decision to move to a containment stage to deal with swine flu will be disruptive but necessary, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd says.
Mr Rudd said he had been briefed by Australia's chief medical officer and there had been 13 confirmed cases of the virus in Australia to date.

"The Government has acted in response to each and every recommendation put to the government by the professional health authorities across our nation," he said.

"This will of course involve inconvenience to communities as certain schools are temporarily closed down."

Mr Rudd said he understood that would cause inconvenience to families.

"However, we also have the responsibility for the public health of the nation and therefore we will take whatever actions are necessary to underpin the public health of the nation," he said.

Mr Rudd said the Government would continue to maintain the "closest possible dialogue" between the chief medical officer and his counterparts in each state and territory.

"As anything further emerges on this front we will act appropriately and act decisively".

He said the Government had previously ensured the nation had a "substantial stock" of anti-virals.

"We are well served by the presence of that stock of anti-virals at this time."

Following swine flu deaths abroad the Government was taking the disease "deeply seriously", Mr Rudd said.

"Every effort by our public health authorities has been taken to avoid deaths at home."

The Government's overwhelming responsibility was to take necessary preventative and containment action to reduce the risk of any fatalities.

He said the CMO had advised that all "necessary and proper measures to support containment" were being taken.

Bradley Marsh

23rd May 2009, 15:40

There is no more need to be afraid of an Influenza A pandemic than there is of EFATO. As with all risk mitigation there are well recognised methods available.

We do know however that an Influenza A pandemic has a probability of 1.

As with all risk management, we simply ensure we are aware of all the ssues get as much valid gen as we can, weigh up probability versus possible loss should any of a number of permutations come to pass and then prepare ourselves appropriately.

That level of preparation will decide the outcome should any potential risk be realised. For many the perceived risk will not be worth worrying about. For others it may be more worthy of their attnetion. It is for each to decide and then bear the cost of that decision.

Cheers,

Brad

Towering Q

23rd May 2009, 18:26

or lock ourselves away in a jungle camp somewhere

And pick up Ebola instead!!:eek:

CazbahKid

24th May 2009, 04:07

Quote:

"2008 - Chinese year of the Horse - Equine Influenza decimates Australian racing."

No, 2008 was Year of the Rat.

Blah blah and 2007 was actually the year of the boar.

Geez, it's called a joke for a reason...:rolleyes:

Angle of Attack

24th May 2009, 08:43

Towering Q,
:ok: Yeah lol, at least I know Ebola will get me quick!

Heads Down, Can you translate your post again?
As with your other threads you sound like an angry, drunk, Singaporean going on about nothing? :)

Sunfish

26th May 2009, 20:06

If we had a Government at State or Federal Level with any spine, they would ban non -essential travel right now and prescribe quarantine for essential travellers. They have the legal power to do that under the health act already.

The article referenced below describes the failure of the NSW Health Department to quarantine the cruise ship Pacific Dawn even though Fourteen people tested positive for H1N1 flu. The Victorian Government is now desperately trying to track down 36 Victorians from that cruise who flew back to Melbourne yesterday.

Anger over breach in swine flu quarantine | theage.com.au (http://www.theage.com.au/national/anger-over-breach-in-swine-flu-quarantine-20090526-bm4i.html)

I understand why the NSW Health Department failed to act. Cruise ships and Sydney tourism are big business and the NSW Government is corrupt from top to bottom, so what's to know?

The number of confirmed cases doubled overnight and will continue to double on a daily basis unless the Health authorities succeed in containing the outbreak. I don't think they have a hope in hell of doing so, especially with venal, corrupt operators like P&O cruises lobbying the Government about the negative effect of public health controls on business.

What is especially sad in my opinion is that their business, and airline travel, will be sunk anyway within Three weeks if this keeps spreading because no one but a complete idiot will be prepared to expose themselves to infection in an airport, aircraft or cruise ship very shortly. If public health efforts were made this minute, it might be possible to snuff this thing out and at least preserve domestic travel and tourism markets. It's being reported today that swine flu infection is now being excluded from travel insurance - which should send some people a message.

For those of you who think this Flu is no big deal, think again. This level of infectivity has not been seen since 1918. As predicted, air travel has seen it spread almost instantly around the world. The virus is at present causing "mild" disease, however "mild" is a relative term. If you have a pre existing condition it ain't "mild" and experience so far indicates 10% of cases require intensive hospital treatment including ventilation. This does not bode well for death rates when cases number in the millions and hospitals are swamped.

I will ignore the doom lovers who talk of H1N1 mixing with the Brisbane strain of seasonal flu, which is apparently quite severe, or worse still the H5N1 avian flu that kills 80% of those that get it. Having said that, I have to say folks, this is serious, and we ain't seen nothing yet. The Federal Government needs to take more action right now to stop venal corrupt state officials from sabotaging public health measures for economic reasons.

ruprecht

26th May 2009, 22:49

The number of confirmed cases doubled overnight and will continue to double on a daily basis

So, if 50 people are infected today then by this time next month 53 billion Australians could have swine flu.

Good god, this IS worse than I thought.:)

Sunfish

27th May 2009, 00:54

Not quite Rup. The numbers will plateau when we run out of testing capacity, but the general view is that around 30% will catch it over Three months.

kotoyebe

27th May 2009, 01:11

I'm not trying to discredit Sunfish's points, but this may help show some perspective.

From today's Sydney Morning Herald letters page:

Unhealthy scaremongering

As someone who has studied the 1918-19 pandemic (and other influenza pandemics) I was appalled to see Mathew Varidel's letter (May 25), which only pours fuel on the bonfires of fear. The salient lesson of 1918 is that deaths were concentrated in countries where health and sanitary standards were low (half the toll was from India), in hospitals where large numbers of patients were concentrated (such as American military hospitals) and in groups of people already suffering respiratory problems.

Influenza deaths in Western countries declined across the 20th century, including in pandemics, probably due to improved overall health care. We have seen nothing yet which requires correction of the view that American influenza poses less threat to life in Western nations than normal seasonal influenza. It is good to be vigilant, but biomedical science is no place for scaremongering.

Dr Paul Foley Prince of Wales Medical Research Institute, Randwick

heads_down

27th May 2009, 02:27

Just heard on radio today that
all Australian Travel Insurances had now added a new clause to their policies

They will not pay anything that is associated to H1N1 or Swine flu virus, including but not limited to diagnosis, treatment, observation, hospital stays, associated quarantine costs, evacuation, prescription, travel plans disrupted as a result of H1N1 whether direct or indirect.

So there you have it, one more reason to cancel travel plans, you could be stuck with a huge debt as no insurance in Australia will cover it.

As this was only announced today, the radio commentator believes that in the coming months, many travel plans will be canceled as no one would want to bear that kind of costs

As this starts trickling down, you will see the travel industry suffer even more.

basically, insurance companies even thinks it is bad business to cover this kind of risk. They would rather cover floods in Queensland than this tells me that this is a very big risk factor for insurance companies to stop their coverage on this.

Japan has been very sensitive to this and their government has urged their citizens not to travel at all. And the recent outbreak in cruise ship had got them scared so much they have canceled many of their group tours.

This is only the beginning.

Iron Bar

27th May 2009, 02:45

Q. Who catches Swine Flu Psychosis?

A. People who work in the newsrooms of media organisations

Q. Can it be stopped and are there lasting effects?

A. No it can't be stopped, sadly it must run it's course. Swine Flu Psychosis can cause melancholia and alienation - not in those who are infected but in members of the public who consume media content.

Q. What are the symptoms?

A. Loss of meaning. Boredom. Feverish rocking backwards and forward in the one spot. Depressed fixation on banal trivia. Tiredness.

Q. Should Swine Flu Psychosis victims be quarantined?

A. NO!!! That's what caused the outbreak in the first place. They should be forced to mix with a wider range of people.

Acknowledgments to Michael Leunig "The Age" Melbourne 27/05

Sunfish

27th May 2009, 21:21

Let's hope Leunig is right.

Let's prepare ourselves in case he is not.

The issue with the virus is not it's lethality, it's the strain that this bug could put on our overall health system if there are a massive number of cases.

ferris

27th May 2009, 21:33

I was having a conversation with a family member yesterday about travel plans they have in July. They inquired if I thought they should cancel their travel plans due to the h1n1 outbreak. This person is fairly level headed, and I would consider to be very typical middle class aussie (I said "no", BTW).

If this person is, indeed, representative of the 'average' view, then the travel industry is in for a VERY rough time in the near term.

It surprised me.

airtags

28th May 2009, 00:19

here are the issues:

Inbound travellers are only thermally screened which is, at best, of notional value
Anyone with colds/flu on inbound a/c - are supposedly to be checked by Quarrantine Officers prior to pax disembarking
Notification of suffering pax to said Quarrantine Officers is arbitary and generally reliant on CC to determine (some are dilgent - some are not, [allegedly], one QF flight didn't bother to notify as the onboard Manager did not want a delay which would have meant missing aconnecting domestic flight home! Several pax later presented with symptoms.)
Quarrantine Officers boarding a/c have no means of diagnosis - they can only 'guess risk' based on what the pax say
Testing when a pax feels sick enough to go to a Doctor - which is usally a day or two later, (done with nasal & oral swabs onto viral xfer media) then takes 48 to 72 hours for initial results and high level of variance in test outcomes
Primary antivirals (ie Tamiflu) only effective if administered within the first 48 hours of infection - other antivirals are secondary
So in a global environment rapid transmission by airline passengers is inevitable.

Interestingly though, discounting the cruise ship cases, almost half of the national total have occurred in Victoria - with a disproportionate number of these who reportedly travelled on QF94.

AT :bored:

Sunfish

28th May 2009, 09:59

Tags:

So in a global environment rapid transmission by airline passengers is inevitable.

That applies only if air travel is inevitable.

If this bug obtains the lethality of H5N1 (80% fatality rate) while maintaining its current level of infectivity, and authorities can respond in time, then your industry is going to have to take a break for a while, otherwise it will be a "permanent" break.

Ferchrissake watch this ****er and think how you might respond.

heads_down

28th May 2009, 11:47

although they keep saying the H1N1 in Aus is a "mild" one, I think with such a quick exponential upwards trend, one major concern is the ability of the virus to 'mutate' with any sort of pre existing viral conditions, or mutate with the current winter flu virus and become a more virulent strain.

Another concern is what if an infected person also comes into contact with the "parrot flu" in NSW. I read not so long ago about this "parrot virus" that merely by the flap of the infected bird's wings or any accidental contact with the infected bird's droppings even inhalation is fatal. Now if that somehow finds its way to a H1N1 infected person or a carrier who may not have symptoms, than the result could be very very fatal.:eek:

I wonder too if those 20 crew who were quarantine, only because the law says so, not that team managers happy to see people off on sick leave for 1 week (minimum quarantine time), Through no fault of their own , just doing their job, is this going to be taken off their sick leave balance? Team managers will have to braced themselves for many more crews who will get quarantine. One stark reminder that i read from the news was that employers have a duty of care to other staff by not making it difficult for staff suffering from fever and flu symptoms(which include fatigue) to take time off work. This is so not in line with QCC culture. team managers might have to adjust their attitude and assumptions when crew now call in sick.

Feather #3

28th May 2009, 23:03

We've just spent 3 weeks in Tucson AZ, 65 miles from the Mexican border. While the world is obsessed with Swine Flu, the two-weeks ago Sunday edition of the Arizona Daily Star [Tucson Region section] cited a head-on collision taking the lives of 3 folk, one death by murder and another in a fight.

You'll be astounded to know that there was not ONE mention of Swine Flu anywhere in the paper! This in an area of the USA where one could argue, all should be wearing masks and staying indoors!!:uhoh: Even my new best friend, Officer Ramirez of the US Border patrol and his colleagues at the checkpoint North of Tombstone weren't wearing masks. Just where is the sense of proportion in all this?

The biggest stir we were involved in was when we asked our hosts for a Gurney to do some cleaning.....one guy wanted to call 911!;) Two countries with mutual interests separated by a common language.

G'day ;)

heads_down

29th May 2009, 02:43

well that is strange cos all my iphone apps with American news like wall street journal, new york times, Los Angeles times, CNN, USA today all have swine flu coverage on a daily basis.

Again the concern is not so much the h1n1 or the media, but rather the ability of this organism to mutate and the rate at which it can accomplish this.

All previous serious pandemic all started out as mild cases.

Don't underestimate virus and bacteria, we have learned from history that they can take down an entire population of people if ignored.

everyone kept saying it is "mild" exactly what do they want to see to take this seriously? deaths? I think not.

jungle juice

29th May 2009, 03:03

alarmist |əˈlärmist|
noun
someone who is considered to be exaggerating a danger and so causing needless worry or panic.
adjective
creating needless worry or panic : alarmist rumors.
the sky is falling,The sky is falling,Run ,Run Save yourselves!!!!

Heads Down,How many people die every year of the flu in the US let alone the rest of the world?
36,000
Heads Down,how many people have died yet from swine flu.
You really are a half empty glass type of person aren't you.

Teal

29th May 2009, 04:00

We've just spent 3 weeks in Tucson AZ, 65 miles from the Mexican border.Yep. I know a guy who last week returned from 10 days on the west coast, drove a car from LA to the Mexican border and back. On his return home, he remarked that he'd seen no coverage in the media about this flu, and the only mask he saw was on his arrival back at Tulla.

the ability of this organism to mutateAll flu viruses mutate. That's why the three flu inoculations offered in Australia each year change. I've been having such shots for 10 years now (employer offers it to all staff for free) and according to the administering doctors, over time it helps build a degree of immunity to strains and other 'mutations'.

From today's crikey.com.au......

Get a grip: Swine Flu is not a biblical plague

Canberra correspondent Bernard Keane writes:

The human instinct to arbitrarily select threats about which to panic, with a little help from the media, is proving very costly in the case of Swine Flu.

It apparently matters little that Australia’s Chief Medical Officer yesterday made a point of saying how mild Swine Flu was and how there was no need for alarm. We’re spending tens of millions of dollars because politicians -- understandably -- don’t want to be caught out responding to Swine Flu the way it should be addressed -- with the same urgent response with which the nation met the great toe-stubbing epidemic of 1997 -- when there’s the faintest chance an Australian could die from it.
Australians of course will die from flu this year, as they do every year, but for whatever reasons lurking deep in human psychology -- porcine imagery, xenophobia, GFC-induced uncertainty -- the far milder Swine Flu is what is sending Australia’s health system into overdrive.

And that costs money. Last time I made this point, a number of readers suggested I had no understanding of preventative health. But in the absence of a magic pudding, every dollar spent by a government is a choice with an opportunity cost and we’re spending a lot on swine flu that could be spent on more serious health issues.

Yesterday Nicola Roxon announced $43m would be spent buying additional courses of vaccine. That’s the vaccine for normal flu, by the way, not Swine Flu. That doesn’t exist yet and may not exist until after the pandemic is over, but the Government has pre-ordered that too, from CSL. They’re not saying how much that will cost, or what will be done with it if Swine Flu has disappeared by July or August.

It’s not Nicola Roxon’s fault. The politician hasn’t been born yet who’d be willing to stand up and say that the public, particularly the media, should stop treating swine flu as a biblical plague when there are lots more serious health matters to be dealt with.

The worried well are also rushing GPs with every sniffle, throat tickle and case of "not feeling 100%". Monthly figures for GP visits are quite volatile, but centre around the 6-7m mark according to Medicare statistics. If there’s a million extra GP visits over April and May because of panic about Swine Flu, that will cost taxpayers $33.5m, based on GPs charging for Level B consultations, which have an MBS fee of $33.55.

Then there’s the cost of dislocation caused by school closures and what might become widespread business closures. Right across the country large businesses will be breaking out their risk management plans and wondering who can work from home.

This week a rumour has swept Parliament House that a public servant attending Estimates hearings had been sent home sick and tested positive for Swine Flu. Problematically, the relevant department isn’t scheduled to appear at Estimates til next week, but that didn’t stop questions being asked on multiple occasions of Nicola Roxon, who declined to "engage in speculation".

Should Swine Flu spread in Parliament House, of course, there’ll be a push for MPs not to return next week, given the massive influx of people sitting weeks entail and capacity for returning staff and politicians to spread it into every electorate in the country. After this week’s playground antics, that may not be such a bad thing, but there is the business of government to transact quite apart from what happens in Question Time.

Our politicians and health chiefs might simply be playing it safe, but that approach comes with its costs and they’re not small and they won’t stop growing for some time.

flyergirl

29th May 2009, 04:00

Airtags,

Whilst most of what you have said is completely valid, the issue of 'diligence' or otherwise of the cabin crew is a tricky one.

EG if a pax says, "I have a sore throat, is that declarable?", the strict answer is NO. The list of reportable symptoms are quite specific in the documentation given to cabin crew, and are reasonably obvious and extreme. However at the end of the day, it is up to the passenger to declare themselves(unless we notice something obvious) and if they don't....not much we can do I'm afraid.

That is not to make excuses for the example you provided, and yes that sounded slack if it is indeed true.

However, eveyone needs to remember, we are not doctors, and cannot make a diagnosis. Some pax seem to think we have miraculously had medical training and can now diagnose swine flu on a whim!:)

This whole thing is very messy to administrate, so we do our best...

Bradley Marsh

29th May 2009, 08:06

CDC H1N1 Flu | Interim Guidance for Airlines Regarding Flight Crews Arriving from Domestic and International Areas Affected by Swine Influenza (http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/guidance/air-crew-dom-intl.htm)

4PW's

29th May 2009, 17:32

Marsh and Sunfish are dreamers.

Sunfish

29th May 2009, 19:46

JJ:

the sky is falling,The sky is falling,Run ,Run Save yourselves!!!!

Heads Down,How many people die every year of the flu in the US let alone the rest of the world?
36,000
Heads Down,how many people have died yet from swine flu.
You really are a half empty glass type of person aren't you.

4PW's:

Marsh and Sunfish are dreamers.

For the last time, it is not the lethality of H1N1 swine flu that is at issue here. IT IS THE NUMBER OF CASES THAT WILL OCCUR ALL AT ONCE THAT MAY OVERWHELM THE HEALTH SYSTEM.

That is why Victoria is opening fever clinics. It is an attempt at triage - to separate people into three groups, the worried well, those with "mild" H1N1 who just need Tamiflu, and those with H1N1 and pre existing conditions that require hospitalisation.

To put it in terms a pilot might understand, in two months time you are unlucky enough to have a heart attack. You are transported to hospital. There is no bed for you because the hospital is full of Flu patients.

Amelia_Flashtart

30th May 2009, 02:02

Sunfish - agree with you 100%.

It seems many people posting here and in fact most of the general public do not understand the term Pandemic.

I am not a medical person however primarily I work internationally with health care professionals, particularly epidemiologists specialising in primary health care. Through this I have gained a good understanding of the impact of what many call a simple flu virus. It is not the severity of the disease, it is the number of cases that result, and also the impact of secondary ARI's occuring in people with compromised immune systems and those living in less than ideal conditions e.g. nursing homes, crowded conditions, and those who for reasons of poverty / lack of good nutrition lack a strong constitution and ability to fight off "simple" viral infections.

The greatest killer in any of the flu pandemics has been the secondary bacterial infections such as pneumonia and other ARI's - not the flu itself.

The fact that the largest number deaths occur in Third World countries is a result of a lack of facilities to treat the sick and several of the reasons I list in the third paragraph. However this does not mean we (as in First World nations) will not feel the impact.

Hopefully this outbreak will not result in a full on pandemic will the resultant economic impact, however time will tell if this will pass quickly or mutate to provide subsequent waves of further outbreaks.

teresa green

30th May 2009, 04:37

Well folks, you cannot go everywhere with a hot water bottle and a parachute, so may as well keep on keeping on doing what you are doing now, me, I am off to Honkers for a few days, any sign of flu I will simply douse with a few glasses of rum (and add milk if I am really sick) and take to my sick bed and become a demanding ol man, last year it was the horses, this year it is us, probably radishes next year, this is a hypocondriacs dream, yes it is a sickness, yes it is a nuisance, but like the horses most of us will survive, now North Korea, that might be a different story.................:suspect:

Iron Bar

30th May 2009, 06:27

Ok Sunfish. How many have been ADMITTED to hospital and remained as inpatients DIRECTLY as a result of hog flu??? Any??? Hysterical bogans in the emergency room do not count.

The only reason the health system is danger of being overwhelmed is due to the commercial media driven HYSTERIA!!!!:ugh:

IF the hysteria gets too great and starts to threaten MEDIA interests ie Large sporting events, AFL, State of origin, Soccer, Motoracing and whatever else is on around the country. This bull**** will be pulled right quick and the reassuring messages will flow.

I fear for our bull**** media driven society.

Give them wine and circus!!!!!

heads_down

30th May 2009, 08:33

Hysteria or not

Under the extra powers granted by the NSW government, Dr Kerry Chant can order anyone who has been in contact with a suspected case and has ignored advice to voluntarily quarantine themselves to stay isolated for up to 14 days.
NSW police can assist in compliance on request from Dr Chant

So if your team manager, like they often do, hurry you back to work or gives you 40 questions after you had flu symptoms after a trip from the list of 44 countries.

I think it would be wise to contact the The NSW chief health officer and use the powers of the law to compel your incompetent team manager who is ever watchful of your sick leaves and those pesky phone calls and even letters disguise as "I so care for your health" bull **** to obey the law or shut up, oh wait a minute didn't Qantas committed a criminal offense not so long ago? breaking the law is second nature for Qantas. So your team managers might even challenge medical experts, which would not be the first time, there has been a precedent of a crew that was dismissed over sick leave and reinstated a year later after it was challenged legally.:eek:

All flu symptoms should be taken seriously as both you and your medically qualified team manager cannot make a diagnosis but previous experiences and documented cases have shown they will attempt to make diagnosis, give medical advise, even decide if it is severe enough to warrant time off from work.

Imagine crews all having to take 14 days sick leave as ordered by the laws, I wonder how Qantas would deal with this. Also, as a flight attendant, coming into contact with so many people in high risk countries, I think the chances of catching it is not entirely wild imagination, given Qantas disallow the use of gloves and face mask as it is a rip off so called 'premium' airlines that none of the top airlines of the world want to emulate.

Bradley Marsh

30th May 2009, 09:52

What defies understanding is why so many are educated (= brainwashed) by the media. Is it because they are too lazy to get off ther ar*ses and click on a few links and get the factual info from the worlds experts. Many posters here would rather offer half baked opinions from their limited personal experience or relay the misinformed views of that scion of factual reporting - popular press journalism.

When you don't know about something then go find experts and be guided by their advice. It is what we (and I do hope that most of the folks posting here meet that criteria) do as professional pilots. Why should any other field of expertise be any different? Only a fool ignores expert opinion .. particularly when the stakes are high.

In the case of the pandemic potential of Influenza A H1N1/2009 you might like to start with Dr Robert Webster (St Judes) and acknowledged as the worlds foremost expert on Influenza. Perhaps Dr Michael Osterholm, Epidemiologist - head of CIDRAP and adviser to a number of US administrations, Dr Albert Osterhaus of The Erasmus Institute in The Netherlands, Dr Lance Jennings from Christchurch NZ, Dr John Oxford - UK, How about The World Health Organisation, or berhaps the CDC is the US? Folks these are the worlds best and brightest in the field of virology and epidemiology. They are all singing from the same hymn book about this virus. Why aren't you discussing their expert opinions? :confused:

If someone chooses to wallow in ignorance that is their right. They are welcome to it but I'll never understand it. :ugh:

My interest in this is passing info onto my professioanl aviation colleagues and any one else that may be interested. If you have nothing positive to offer then please just switch back to the footy or whatever else you use to avoid thinking.

heads_down

30th May 2009, 13:19

regardless of who or what you believe

the law is the law
and you must obey it, unlike your employer who managed to commit criminal offense over a period of three years.

you, on the other hand should behave as a law abiding citizen and volunteer to quarantine yourselves for 14 days if you think you may have come into contact with people who have flu like symptoms in one of the 44 listed countries whether or not you develop symptoms whether or not you have made your own self-diagnosis.

the law and the courts does not gives a rat's rectum about what your personal beliefs are about this 'alleged" media hype

Use your initiative and be proactive, volunteer to quarantine yourselves if you believe you have had contact with infected people known or unknown, do not wait till you developed rashes than you start to quarantine yourselves, it may already be too late and you may also have broken the law by knowingly or unknowingly passing on contagions.

Otherwise you are breaking the law and the NSW government can and will use the police to compel you and your employer to obey the laws, but then it is unlikely Qantas will obey this law. they have proven they can break laws over a period of three years and amazingly, the CEO does not even know about it and got away Scot free. Hmmm.

Once again I urge you all to obey the law, not break it like your employer once did.
Under the extra powers granted by the NSW government, Dr Kerry Chant can order anyone who has been in contact with a suspected case and has ignored advice to voluntarily quarantine themselves to stay isolated for up to 14 days.
NSW police can assist in compliance on request from Dr Chant's office.

indamiddle

30th May 2009, 13:26

the all blacks are a bunch of pussies!

Bradley Marsh

30th May 2009, 18:11

Perhaps worth a small bit of time would be the 18MAY WHO conference on the evolving Flu A H1N1/2009 pandemic:

Since this date the case number has doubled to over 15000.

http://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/swineflu/High_Level_Consultation_18_May_2009.pdf

Cheers,
Brad

cbradio

31st May 2009, 01:32

If you have nothing positive to offer then please just switch back to the footy or whatever else you use to avoid thinking.

great win by the Tigers - shame about idiot Cousins.

We had better enjoy avoiding thinking while we (that's us simpletons out here , not you "thinkers" ;)) can, the way the media is going we'll have no schools, no sporting events and for anyone in the tourism or airline industries (or anything related to them) no jobs.

bushy

31st May 2009, 03:11

Remember those child hood stories?
The one about the big bad wolf and the three little pigs. The facts are.......
The big bad wolf said "I'll huff and i'll puff and I'll blow your house down!!!!
To which the little pig replied "Piss off wolf, or I'll sneeze on you"

ZEEBEE

31st May 2009, 03:35

Use your initiative and be proactive, volunteer to quarantine yourselves if you believe you have had contact with infected people known or unknown, do not wait till you developed rashes than you start to quarantine yourselves, it may already be too late and you may also have broken the law by knowingly or unknowingly passing on contagions.

You can't actually break the law by passing on contagions if you don't know that you have them.

Anyone who thinks that this is going to be contained by "quarantining" after people exhibit the symptoms is naive in the extreme.
Most people will have effectively spread the virus LONG before they get developed symptoms and of course those people cross infected will do likewise.

As the Chief Health minister said, "It may be better to simply treat this the same as the seasonal flu".

Unfortunately, just like the "Global warming" hysteria, there are those that think that we as humans can actually do something about a phenomena that's completely out of our control.

As George Carlin would have put it "It's the ultimate arrogance of our species" :=

heads_down

31st May 2009, 03:48

you can reasonably suspect whether you have them or not when you simply trace your steps backwards for a week, have you been to a high risk countries in the list of 44 publish by the government? Are you starting to feel fatigue? Is your throat not feeling usual? simple steps like that can slowly narrow it down to whether you are a suspect or not.

however your team manager will laugh it off and say until I see you in a stretcher, hauled to the nearest hospital, I do not think it is anything to worry about, in that case, I think you need to slap them with the law and contact the NSW health department.

Don't let your employer bully you into not taking this seriously through scare tactics.

And yes such is the arrogance of the human species.

Chimbu chuckles

27th Jun 2009, 15:48

So still worried about this mild version of flu are we fellas?

Any bets on what the next 'pandemic' scare campaign will be?

glekichi

27th Jun 2009, 16:13

I still don't get how they can call it a f#%king pandemic.....

Sure, the criteria for a pandemic is 'sustained community level transmission..' in more than a couple of countries, but the step down to the phase at the end of a pandemic is a reduction to seasonal infection levels.... which the current 'pandemic' (swine.... really?) flu is WELL below already.

So... was it ever really a pandemic?

Edit: Unprecedented typo on PPRUNE

Lodown

28th Jun 2009, 00:18

A bit in the US papers yesterday estimated that over a million US citizens had now been infected by swine flu.

The Bullwinkle

28th Jun 2009, 03:37

Swine Flu is not a laughing matter. Just pray that we can keep it out of Australia.

You are joking, aren't you?

It's a flu, for christ sake.

The only reason we know about it is because it's shoved in our faces every day by the media.

The mis-information that is reported as fact is diabolical.

So far, we have had 4 Swine Flu deaths. But then you read the small print and discover that the victims didn't actually die from Swine Flu. They just happened to have it at their time of death, but it wasn't the cause of death!

It's just a flu!

Of course the pharmaceutical companies are making a killing with their sales of Tamiflu medications. (Not to mention the companies who make those stupid little paper masks)

Wake up people, can't you tell when you're being conned, or do you all just blindly believe everything that you read in the paper or see on TV?

Bradley Marsh

28th Jun 2009, 16:33

<QUOTE>

Swine flu: to every thing there is a season : Effect Measure (http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2009/06/swine_flu_to_every_thing_there.php#more)

Early returns on what is happening in the southern hemisphere suggest that novel H1N1 is crowding out the expected seasonal strains, something that pandemic strains have usually done. In 1918 there was a pandemic with the H1N1 subtype that settled down as the dominant seasonal flu virus until the "Asian flu" pandemic of 1957 when it was bumped by H2N2. That subtype ruled the seasonal flu roost for only 9 years when a new subtype, H3N2 took its place in the Hong Kong flu pandemic of 1968. Both pandemics were much less severe than 1918 but still resulted in millions of excess deaths globally. In 1977 the pattern was interrupted with the return of H1N1, which didn't take the place of H3N2 but co-circulated with it. Since then we've seen mixtures of H3N2 and H1N1 each flu season, with sometimes one subtype much more prevalent, sometimes the other (a hybrid H1N2 made a sporadic appearance in 2002 but never gained a foothold and didn't represent a novel appearing virus to the population). Sometimes H1N1 and H3N2 would switch places at some point in the flu season, but those two, along with influenza B have made up seasonal influenza since 1977.

Now we have a novel H1N1 added to the mix. While novel H1N1 and seasonal H1N1 have the same subtype designation, the swine origin of the new virus means that the hemagglutinin (H) and neuriminidase (N) proteins on its surface are sufficiently different from the human adapted counterparts that it looks like a very different flu virus to most of the population. Despite its swine origin it is infecting humans and being easily transmitted from person to person. It is also continuing to circulate in the northern hemisphere at a time when most seasonal flu is at a very low level. The seasonal flu strains are essentially gone up north, almost all flu A being novel H1N1. Is this just because seasonal flu went away by itself (and we emphasize, again, the reasons for flu's seasonality remains a mystery)? Will they return, with or without novel H1N1 during next flu season up north?

We are looking to what is happening in the southern hemisphere for some clues. Australia is one of the most hard hit countries and also has a well functioning influenza surveillance system similar to one in the US. And it appears the new virus is pushing out the seasonal strains that were expected to be the main circulating flu viruses:

Tests on 138 type-A flu samples collected by a network of doctors confirmed 60 cases of the new A/H1N1 variant and only five of seasonal influenza in the eight weeks ended June 21, according to a report today by the Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory in Melbourne.

[snip]

“We are seeing a big increase compared to the same stage of the flu season last year, and the increase is predominantly in 5- to 16-year-olds,” Kerry Chant, chief health officer for New South Wales, said in a statement today. Two children are in intensive care and two other people hospitalized, she said.

The eastern state, Australia’s most populous, has 653 confirmed cases of swine flu, the second highest number in the nation after neighboring Victoria state.

Health officials in Victoria have recorded 1,509 cases from laboratory tests and stopped analyzing specimens from patients with mild disease earlier this month as part of the state’s response to the virus.

[snip]

Victoria’s influenza sentinel surveillance network diagnosed flu-like illness in 21.9 of every 1,000 patients seen in the week ended June 21, the report showed. That’s up from 17 per 1,000 a week earlier.

The network comprises 87 general practitioners across the state who test a portion of their patients for flu to give authorities an indication of flu activity in the community.

Unlike seasonal flu, from which the elderly suffer the most death and disease, the new bug is targeting the young and causing potentially fatal complications in otherwise healthy people aged 30 to 50, pregnant women and those with asthma, diabetes and obesity, according to the WHO. (Jason Gale, Bloomberg)

Not only is the virus taking the place of the seasonal strains, it is acting like a pandemic strain usually acts, moving the age distribution to the left (younger age groups). So while the virus is not clinically very different from seasonal flu, it is epidemiologically different.

So what will happen? The most likely outcome in our view is that henceforth flu season will be dominated by a single viral lineage, the current swine origin H1N1. That may take a couple of seasons and during the transition we could have some very unpleasant flu seasons, with lots more illness than usual and increased morbidity and mortality among younger members of the population. That epidemiological difference will make this flu virus seem different and more frightening. But I'm guessing.Flu never does what we expect it to, so there are many other possibilities, some much nastier.

Over at Avian Flu Diary Mike Coston also reflects on this. He's an astute flu observer and always worth reading, no less so this time.

<UNQUOTE>

Cheers,
Brad

Bradley Marsh

28th Jun 2009, 17:07

Here's a quote you might find apt:

<QUOTE>
In short - living your life by the news is like driving using only the rear view mirror. Both only show a selective part of the past - not the future. Please post your feelings about the future. A good idea or skill should not be kept to oneself.
<UNQUOTE>

It is from this thread: Pandemic prep teachable moment : Effect Measure (http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2009/06/pandemic_prep_teachable_moment.php#c1741221)

These snippets may also be of interest but the whole thread is worth reading if you are after a balanced view of the real professionals instead of what you are fed in MSM.

<QUOTE>
Far as I can tell, the public health authorities across most of North America have used this "teachable moment" to assure people that the flu is mild, that the "pandemic" is more a technical than a real problem, and that everything that needs to be done is being done.

In consequence of our don't-worry-about-it messaging, we have achieved a high level of disinterest in, and complacency about, the pandemic. Published polls show this to be true. For example, see:

Despite ?Pandemic,? Swine Flu Worry Dwindles (http://www.gallup.com/poll/120863/Despite-Pandemic-Swine-Flu-Worry-Dwindles.aspx)

If/when we need to actually motivate people to take steps to protect themselves, and if/when we need to start talking up complicated and problematic community level interventions, then we will no doubt be seen by many as, and accused of, once again, being either a) scaremongers, or b) Pollyannas who failed to tell people earlier about the risk.

Which is to say I think we have failed to communicate in a manner consistent with known principles of effective risk communications. The practical result of this may well be that our eventual management of this outbreak will be less effective than it should be.

As in: more people will die than would be the case if we were leveling with people now about what may be coming down later.

German authorities warn of swine flu mutation risk | Health | Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/healthNews/idUSTRE55M5EA20090623)
<UNQUOTE>

And if you want some deeper info on Flu etc please go to this page:
biology : Effect Measure (http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/bird_flu/biology/)

Cheers,
Brad

Bradley Marsh

28th Jun 2009, 17:14

For those too busy to research before posting but are interested in the facts here is a quick primer on pandemic influenza :
It is cut/paste from a blog <http://afludiary.*************/2009/06/new-pandemic-primer.html> that I can't seem to link to from here:

<QUOTE>

Six week and nearly 300 essays ago - when the Swine Flu story was just hitting the news wires - I put together a primer on pandemics for first-time visitors to Flublogia (our little corner of the Internet that specializes in influenza) .

Today, with the declaration of a pandemic apparently imminent, I’ve updated that piece to include some of the information we’ve learned about the H1N1 swine flu virus over the past 6 weeks, and am running it again.

The HHS rates Pandemics like Hurricanes. Category 1-5

The 1918 Spanish Flu was a CAT 5 Pandemic.

While my regular readers are no doubt familiar with the basics of pandemics, it is probably a good time for a review.

Don’t worry, I’ll be gentle.

First, you need to know that scientists have been expecting another pandemic (global spread of a novel virus) to come around for years.

Influenza viruses, you see, are notorious for being unstable.

They mutate constantly, which is why we need a new flu shot every year. The changes from year to year are often minor, but even a tiny antigenic shift or drift in the virus can render your last flu shot useless.

Every once in awhile, we see a major change in an influenza virus. It can jump species to humans (as we believed happened in 1918), or it can acquire genetic material (reassortment) from another flu virus and create a new hybrid.

<image>

<Fig.> Birds, humans, and Pigs are all susceptible to Influenza

In either event, you can end up with a new (novel) virus to which humans have little or no immunity.

If the virus is also easily transmissible, and it produces illness in humans, you have the ingredients for a pandemic.

The term `pandemic’ describes the geographic spread of a novel virus, not the severity.

Roughly every 30 to 40 years for at least the past 3 centuries the world has seen an influenza pandemic. Usually these pandemics are mild or moderate, but on rare occasions they can be horrific.

The last true pandemic was in 1968, and the culprit was the H3N2 Hong Kong Flu.

As pandemics go, it was pretty mild. It probably only killed a million people or so, and perhaps 30,000 in the US.

Before that, you only had to go back 11 years, to 1957 and the H2N2 Asian Flu. A more lethal pandemic than 1968, the Asian Flu killed between 2 and 4 million people worldwide, and nearly 70,000 Americans.

The Granddaddy of flu pandemics occurred in 1918, and that was the H1N1 Spanish flu. Somewhere between 50 and 75 million people are estimated to have died over an 18 month period. The United States saw about 675,000 deaths from this flu.

We’ve also had `close calls’, such as the Swine Flu Scare of 1976, the Liverpool Flu of 1951, and the pseudo-pandemic of 1947.

In 1977, the H1N1 virus returned after an absence of 20 years, possibly due to an accidental release from a laboratory in the former Soviet Union.

It is also likely that we’ve been close to a pandemic other times, and simply were oblivious to the fact.

For the past 10 years we’ve been watching the H5N1 `Bird Flu Virus’ as it has moved out of Central China, to the Middle East, Indonesia, and parts of Europe.

The H5N1 virus has `pandemic potential’, but luckily hasn’t acquired the ability to spread from person to person easily.

You should know that despite the fact that the press has lost interest in it, the Bird Flu threat has not gone away, and the emergence of the H1N1 swine flu pandemic does not eliminate H5N1 as a threat.

The novel H1N1 `swine’ flu virus that has unexpectedly thrust us towards a pandemic is a distant relative of the seasonal H1N1 virus that has been in circulation – off and on – since at least 1918.

It has picked up genetic material from hosts (pigs) over the years (including some avian genes), that makes it unique enough that most humans have little or no immunity to it.

The good news (at least so far) is that this virus doesn’t appear to have the virulence (severity) that some pandemic strains have demonstrated in the past.

None of this is to suggest that this virus is benign. It isn’t. It is fully capable of producing serious, even fatal, illness in some small percentage of its victims.

For now, the WHO is calling this virus `moderate’ – not mild.

Early studies have suggested that it may be roughly equivalent to the 1957 `Asian Flu’ in virulence, but it is probably too soon to say with any certainty.

And the virulence of any influenza virus can change over time. The flu that we see this summer, or even this fall, may not be the same flu we see next winter or the following year.

And something else you should know; a pandemic is not a short-term event, like a hurricane or a flood. They can last for months – even a year or longer.

This is something we are likely to be dealing with in 2010 as well.

<image>

In late April, in response to the emergence of the novel H1N1 virus, the WHO began raising the pandemic alert level – from Phase 3 – where it has sat for several years, to Phase 4 and then to Phase 5.

It is anticipated that the WHO will declare a Level 6 Pandemic Phase later today. If that happens, it is simply official recognition of what has been going on for several weeks; the global spread of this novel virus.

We don’t know right now how seriously this pandemic will affect our society, our healthcare delivery system, and our economy. The impact could range from minor to severe – and since the virus could mutate, the effects could change over time.

It is unlikely that the vast majority of Americans will see a vaccine before 2010, meaning most of us will have to go through this winter without the protection of a H1N1 flu shot.

Certain high risk individuals, either due to their profession or due to falling into a medical high risk group, may see a vaccine late in the fall.

The HHS wants you, and your business, and your community to take this pandemic threat seriously. And that means being proactive, and taking steps now to prepare for this pandemic.

If you have not done so, go to Ready.gov. Get A Kit, Make A Plan, and Be Informed.

<image>

You should also visit pandemicflu.gov, and read and follow the advice provided on their Plan and Prepare page.

A pandemic may bring societal disruptions, such as prolonged school closures in the fall. You need to be figuring out now how you will handle it if your child is forced to stay home for weeks at a time.

You may also find that your regular employment is affected by a pandemic. There may be supply chain interruptions, personnel shortages, and possibly even some public health ordinances that interfere with your ability to work – at least temporarily.

And of course, during a pandemic there is a strong likelihood that you could contract the virus. For most people, this will simply mean spending a miserable week or two at home. The vast majority of people will recover without incident.

But some people, particularly those at higher risk, may experience serious, even life threatening illness.

You need to be prepared to care for yourself, and your loved ones, in your home. Dr. Grattan Woodson's Home Treatment of Influenza is as good a reference for the treatment of influenza as you are likely to find, and it’s free.

Hospitals and clinics are likely to be overrun with flu cases during a pandemic wave, and medical care will probably be difficult to obtain – even in developed countries.

Lastly, you need to be thinking about how you can help your neighborhood, and greater community, get through a crisis.

It can be something as simple as volunteering to be a `flu buddy’ for a neighbor or friend – being willing to fetch medicines, food, or render medical assistance in the event that they are unable to help themselves.

If you are able, you might consider volunteering with the Red Cross or, CERT, or the Medical Reserve Corps. There will also probably be opportunities to help with your local school, church, or hospital.

The important thing is that we react – not overreact – to this crisis.

If we retreat into our homes, refuse to work, or are afraid to help our neighbors and community we will only compound the effects of a pandemic.

And we risk putting a stake through the heart of an already staggering economy.

The pandemic of 2009 will make the third pandemic in my lifetime. It probably won’t be my last.

As Michael Leavitt, former Secretary of the HHS liked to say, “Pandemics happen.”

Now it’s our task to deal with it.

<UNQUOTE>

Cheers,
Brad

teresa green

30th Jun 2009, 13:05

Blimey Bradley, I am exhausted from reading your post. Are you a pilot or a quack, you sound like one of those horribly ernest young S/O's who regale you for hours about some drival or personal problems they might have, ( I still shudder when I think of one young man who spent the entire night trying to convert me to Buddhism) anyway old chap, you cannot go thru life with a hot water bottle and parachute strapped to your side, and having bottles of dettol in your nav bag, carefully wiping hotel doors ( I flew with one of them too) eat well, exercise, relax, and if you do get the dreaded lugey, you will be equipped to fight it, live each day mate, stop worrying about it, next year it will be something else!

stubby jumbo

30th Jun 2009, 23:20

.....great post Theresa.

I haven't had a laugh like this from pprune for ages:D

You're right though. Pig Flu, Swine Flu ,H1N1, Hep A, Hep B & C, the world is full of nasties.

Many moons ago ......me and a mate back packed from Capetown to Cairo........and guess what.... survived. Its all a numbers game -just as the dudes who won last nights lotto and got $50m each.:{

Paranoia will get you know where.

The only way to avoid all this is to lock yourself in a bubble on a sterile IV drip.:hmm:

teresa green

1st Jul 2009, 05:31

I figured out stubby with 25,000 hrs in my log, that means I must have eaten at least 12,000 crew meals, now mate, that should be enough to kill a herd of elephants, I reckon crew are miles ahead in the infections stakes, if they have survived x amount of crew meals, not much else could possibly kill them, and old blokes like me have survived, the threat of TB, Polio, Hepatitis, Asian flu, AIDS, mad cow disease, Ross River fever, to say nothing of mumps, chicken pox, and measles, and like most blokes I personally hope I die "on the job" if not I will be quite happy to be buried in a old DC9 with my arm around one of her beautiful little donks and sent to the nearest aircrew bar in the sky, meanwhile I am dammed if I am going to worry about some flu, pig, goat or otherwise, I am far more interested in catching my next Barra, and so should the rest of you.

Angle of Attack

1st Jul 2009, 08:06

I am sure Brad has some stakeholding in Tamiflu or the likes??

Anyway on a side note I had a mate get the dreaded Swine Flu, he had a fever and was bed bound for a day, then a week later I got some flu symptoms, got tested but it was just another strain of flu! Well I shouldn't say just I got slammed and bed bound for 4 days! I know which one I would have preferred to get! The Swine is just another strain that has appeared along with heaps of others in the past which have transferred from avian and swine origins!
:)

Sunfish

2nd Jul 2009, 22:49

(Sigh) the problem is not the virulence of pandemic flu, it is going to be the number of cases that have the capacity to overwhelm the health system.

Bradley Marsh

4th Jul 2009, 08:40

Teresa et al,

Loathe as I am to rebut the sniping and sarcasm that is a regular feature of PPRuNe, I'd just like to make 2 things perfectly clear:

1. I have no interest in any business associated with this or any other pandemic or medical interest. The purpose of my posts is to share with my profressional colleagues the information of which I have become aware through a personal interest in the virology and epidemiology of Influenza A.

2. The information I post is relayed from the worlds acknowledged authorities on Flu A as well as sources well outside the MSM you so decry every time they beat up an aviation issue. Perhaps that experience should make you wary of blindly accepting what you are fed on the telly or your daily rag of choice. The recent posts which you find so tedious are all direct quotes with attriibutions stated as best I can within the link posting limitations of PPRuNe.

You are welcome to add me to your ignore list, not read the posts or exercise your free will in any other way so so desire. Personally I'd prefer if you all played the ball and not the man ie. stick to the facts and do some reasearch.

Cheers with the best intent,

Brad

The Bullwinkle

5th Jul 2009, 12:34

I say again.

It's just a flu! :ugh:

Mr. Hat

15th Jul 2009, 00:04

Latest from popular media website:Young, healthy at risk of swine flu's sequel | Swine flu | News.com.au (http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25777398-5018988,00.html)

From the article:
A fifth NSW resident was confirmed to have died from the disease, taking the national death toll to 20. A further 32 NSW residents are in intensive care, at least six of them young and otherwise healthy.

That last sentence is a hint that it might be a little more serious than i previously thought...

Square Bear

23rd Jul 2009, 09:46

Any updates about the current flu situation/ (and fatalities) from those that post on this forum with a knowlege about all things?

cunninglinguist

24th Jul 2009, 12:48

No need to panic over flu deaths'

Sydney Morning Herald

July 8, 2007

A FLU outbreak in NSW was unlikely despite the deaths of three young children in Western Australia in the past few days, authorities said yesterday.

But NSW Health said it was not too late to be vaccinated against the respiratory illness.

NSW Health director of communicable diseases Dr Jeremy McAnulty said the annual flu season had arrived in NSW but there was no data to suggest anything more serious than usual. "It's so far shaping up like a regular old flu season but we will be monitoring it over the coming weeks," he said.

While most people get over the flu without problems, young children, the over-55s, Aborigines over 50 and people with existing medical conditions should take extra care, he said.

People with diabetes, heart problems and respiratory conditions were particularly at risk from complications, such as pneumonia, brought on by flu.

Dr McAnulty urged people in those groups, who had not already been vaccinated, to visit their GP and receive the flu shot, which takes about a week to take effect.

People struck down by flu should stay at home and recuperate, rather than go to work or school and risk spreading the illness, he said.

Dr McAnulty said it was also important to remember basic hygiene, such as coughing into a tissue and regular hand-washing, to reduce the spread of flu.

"Many hundreds of people in NSW, maybe thousands across Australia, are hospitalised from flu each year," he said.

"There's probably several hundred deaths across Australia, usually elderly people but sometimes small children . . . fortunately it's pretty uncommon."

Hundreds of concerned parents have fronted up to hospital emergency departments across Perth following an influenza warning from health authorities. Their action was prompted by a call from Western Australia's Department of Health urging parents to seek early medical attention for young children showing signs of respiratory illness.

The department's warning followed the deaths of three children, all aged under five, in the Perth metropolitan area in recent days.

It has been confirmed they died from the A strain of the influenza virus, which can be controlled by vaccination.

Two died after suffering complications after falling ill in a Perth hospital. The third did not receive hospital treatment.

OK Kiddies, lets move on to the next sensationalistic journalism piece, surely there must be another apocolypse due soon :ugh:

Bradley Marsh

24th Jul 2009, 16:26

Quote from Effect Measure - A blog by US Public Health Officials:

Pediatric complications and deaths with swine flu

Category: Swine flu
Posted on: July 24, 2009 7:54 AM, by revere

Yesterday CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) carried an a note about neurologic complications in children with swine flu. Central nervous system effects -- seizures, encephalitis, encephalopathy, Reye syndrome, and other neurologic disorders -- are known to occur with seasonal influenza in children, but whether they are more or less common with the swine flu variant is unknown at the moment. The MMWR reports four cases from Dallas County, more as a reminder that these kinds of complications can occur and should be considered whenever a child with influenza-like illness (ILI) presents with unexplained seizure or mental status changes. It's also a reminder of something else. That influenza, whether seasonal or pandemic varieties, presents different clinical pictures in different age groups, but pandemic flu shifts the age distribution of ill cases towards the younger age groups. The difference is not necessarily a clinical difference but an epidemiological one. First, the clinical picture:

This is the first report describing patients with neurologic complications associated with novel influenza A (H1N1) virus infection. The severity of the neurologic disease in the four patients described in this report was less than the typical disease described in two studies of neurologic complications associated with seasonal influenza (1--2), which included reports of severe static encephalopathy and death. Only two of the four patients described in this report had seizures, and none died or had neurologic sequelae at discharge. Considering that clusters of influenza-associated encephalopathy in children have been reported during previous community outbreaks of seasonal influenza and that children appear to be infected with novel influenza A (H1N1) virus more frequently than adults, additional neurologic complications in children are likely to be reported as the pandemic continues. Clinicians should consider influenza associated encephalopathy in the differential diagnosis of children with ILI and seizures or mental status changes, and remain aware of the potential for severe neurologic sequelae associated with seasonal or novel influenza A (H1N1) virus infection. (MMWR, CDC [cites omitted])

If that sounds vague reassuring, it is important to remember that influenza infection is always potentially dangerous. Seasonal flu kills mainly those over 65, but pandemic flu targets the young, and while most "just have a case of flu" (in itself potentially nasty as the cases reported above show), every year children die and this year's flu season was no exception. For several years CDC has been trying to keep track of pediatric flu mortality and the striking thing about this year is the appearance of pediatric swine flu as a distinct second season. Here is a chart from last week's CDC surveillance report where it is easy to see that this year's pediatric mortality from seasonal flu looks very much like the three previous years (although last year was a very bad flu year), but that in addition pediatric deaths are occurring this year during weeks when there are no, or almost no, pediatric deaths in the previous seasons. This is another key marker of an influenza pandemic:

IPD27.jpg

Source: CDC, Influenza-associated pediatric mortality

Of the 90 pediatric deaths this year (there were 88 last year), 23 are from swine flu. Not all of the children had specimens collected, but of the 40 that did (all deaths, not just swine flu), about a third (15) had bacterial co-infections that contributed to their deaths, and Staph aureus was the organism in 9 of them (60%). Of these 9, 5 were MRSA, i.e., antibiotic resistant (see our post of the other day). This year, as in past years, the children with bacterial co-infections have been the older ones, most over 5 and two-thrids over 12 years old. Of the 9 swine flu fatal cases in children where specimens from normally sterile sites were obtained to see if there was bacterial co-infection, only one had a positive bacterial culture. It is still too early to say if this difference is a real difference in the likelihood of bacterial co-infection because no specimens were obtained from the majority (14 of 23) of the fatal swine flu cases.

The swine flu pandemic continues to be described in some quarters as "mild." In our view, "mild" is not a word that should be used in connection with influenza outbreaks, whether seasonal or pandemic.

Bradley Marsh

24th Jul 2009, 16:28

Another Quote from Effect Measure:

<snip>
The swine flu prepping controversy

Category: Pandemic preparedness • Public health preparedness • Swine flu
Posted on: July 21, 2009 7:09 AM, by revere

The reaction to our post on Sunday about preparing for the ongoing flu pandemic was mixed. Some thought it was right on target while others expressed dismay over what was perceived as minimizing the possible effects, especially as we have been talking for well over four years about the potentially pervasive nature of widespread absenteeism. Still others thought we had retreated to a narrow view focused on the pressure on the health care system while neglecting what might happen in the wider world. There is some truth to all these perceptions, but we didn't take this tack because we changed our mind. We took it for pragmatic reasons relating to the urgency of the problem. We'd like to explain because we wish to make a few points (again).

1. We are out of time. Yesterday's post about prioritizing vaccine efficacy and safety studies applies also to pandemic preparation. For years we have been advocating a broad approach to pandemic preparedness through strengthening the public health and social service infrastructures. Since the Reagan era, both Republicans and Democratic Presidents and Congresses have systematically dismantled and in other ways crippled public health and social services in the US. Both are a shadow of what they were before Reagan. It was our belief, based on four decades in medicine and public health, that service infrastructure investment was the best way to protect us against an influenza pandemic and many other hazards as well. If a pandemic didn't happen, there would still be manifold benefits.

But we didn't do it and now it's too late. Fortunately the pandemic that is evolving is not the one we feared most. It may change character, but in terms of preparing as a community we've only got a 10 foot dike, so it won't matter if the flood crests at 15 feet or 20 feet. We should be getting ready to be inundated, but we're not even doing that. The focus on vaccine availability we cited on Sunday and again yesterday is "planning for the best" (the availability of a vaccine that works). When it comes to planning for the (more likely) worst, we have to be realistic and pragmatic about how bad an event we can prepare for. We still have time to get ready for the kind of pandemic they are seeing in the southern hemisphere and which we have had twice in the last century (1957 and 1968), but not much more. The planning corollary to the perfect being the enemy of the good, is the horrible is the enemy of the bad. There is too little emotional energy, money and people to do what we should have done over the years. The has clock ran out. So now we find ourselves talking about a much more restricted response than we wanted.

2. In this context, a calm, steady and rational approach will serve best. It is easy to anticipate the media images that will produce the opposite. Images of overwhelmed health services and out of stock necessities will make communication very difficult. Other effects will have less impact. School closings are a hardship but not a cause of panic. It is unlikely water will be unavailable, for reasons we outlined on Sunday (and we have professional experience regarding water system security). If there is interruption of electricity it is unlikely to come at the outset, very unlikely to be national or regional in scope and in any event can be fixed. If you live in an area prone to outages, take that into account, as you would normally. Remember that flu pandemics are irregular in time and space. They don't happen everywhere at once and some places are virtually untouched. The key issue is to instill a sense of empowerment and control by having objectives that are attainable, visible and rational. That was the subtext of our Sunday post.

3. The issue that seemed to provoke the most consternation was our implicit rejection of personal prepping as a solution. We plead guilty to this, so we feel obligated to explain why we have taken this position. The most obvious, and in some ways the most understandable explanation, is that this is a public health blog. Our professional object of interest and our point of application is a population or a community, not an individual. Individuals are the subject of clinical medicine, and while we are physicians, we are firmly fixed in the public health realm. Our intended audience is state, local, and national public health professionals and we know from our referrer logs we they are reading us regularly. Many others are drawn here by reason of personal interest and we welcome and often try to involve them in a public health approach. But we don't do personal prepping here mainly because it's not our subject matter.

But it's not just a subject matter issue. We have a philosophical bias. We think it's great if people take personal responsibility to prepare for whatever hazards might come, whether it's buying home owner's insurance or stashing away a couple of weeks of staples (contrary to what I have said, Mrs. R. informs me we have more than enough in the pantry to last a few weeks; shows you what I know). We are lucky. Most of the world cannot provide for daily needs, much less stock up a couple of days, weeks or months worth. Most of the world means most people, so we are not in favor of making self-reliance the centerpiece of preparation. It's irrelevant to most people in the world and therefore to us as public health professionals. I realize many preppers are also generous people who will share and help others. If people talked about neighborhood food pantries, we'd consider that very appropriate. Self-reliance, though, is not a topic here nor does it advance what we stand for. Our definition of public health is what we, as a community, choose to do for each other. As I said, it's a philosophical bias. If you are focused on individualism as a principle, you won't like our approach.

4. Our interest in flu at the outset was as a lens through which to look at public health from a progressive perspective. This is a political blog as well as a science blog. As we've said many times, public health has the word "public" in it and is inherently political, in the non-partisan sense. Public health as a profession and our progressive politics are joined by a desire to make a better world. That's a lifelong commitment for us that we've pursued at one time or other in dingy storefront offices, in the streets, in free clinics, in the classroom, in union halls and churches and auditoriums, with stethoscopes, petitions, typewriters, mimeomachines, xeroxes and computers. And now on the internet. Four and a half years ago, when we started this blog, one of our objectives was just to keep the lights on in a dark age. That moment has now passed and we aren't sure we are adding much to the conversation. We're weighing our options, looking to see if there is a better way we can be effective. But at the moment we are here.

The bottom line regarding the pandemic is that it is too late for the kind of overarching approaches we have been advocating. The train has already left the station. What remains is how to use the little time left to make things less bad. We'll muddle through. It's not the end of the world.

But we could have done so much better had we invested in public health as a common good, not just a technical fix for a pandemic. Maybe when this storm passes, we can again put our shoulders to the wheel to make that happen.