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Richard Taylor
25th Apr 2009, 18:26
A nasty flu outbreak has killed about 60 in Mexico, with a number of cases in the southern US.

Experts are warning of a potential pandemic.

So, as if we don't have enough troubles to seek...:uhoh:

Seems it wasn't the bird flu we needed to watch, but swine flu instead.

Can anyone save our bacon?

Roger Sofarover
25th Apr 2009, 18:41
The Mexicans seem to be taking extensive, thorough precautions now, but with airtravel the way it is, there could be people carrying this disease all over the globe by now. The only winners will be the pharmaceutical companies, I presume very busy now on coming up with a vaccine.

con-pilot
25th Apr 2009, 21:38
There has been two new cases of this flu confirmed in Kansas. Getting a little too close for comfort.

Bit of good news as far as the US is concerned, all cases so far are described as mild and no deaths, unlike in Mexico.

Think I'll just stay in the house till it blows over. ;)



(Got plenty of Scotch.)

G-CPTN
25th Apr 2009, 22:14
Big Airways CC member from Mexico City to LHR has been 'detained' in a London Hospital after demonstrating flu-like symptoms.
Passengers and other crew allowed to 'go free' . . .

gingernut
25th Apr 2009, 22:18
The key message from the WHO is that we need to monitor it's spread, rather than the exact nature of the mutation at this stage.
I believe it's resistant to the antiviral's at this presernt time.

er340790
25th Apr 2009, 22:51
A few facts if anyone's interested. (Mrs. ER is head honchess of a Canadian Med School with first had experience of the SARS outbreak.)

1. Exisitng flu shots will NOT provide protection against this strain.

2. If (big if) the strain is isolated and vacine developed quickly, the worldwide capacity to manufacture vacines is well under 0.5 billion shots p.a. (pls form an orderly 6-billion long queue.)

3. Face masks are already (quietly) being distributed to first-response workers and families. Got ours last night.

4. Altho' Canada 'has no confirmed cases' a patient in Montreal was hospitalised upon return and her family in Mexico ARE confirmed with the strain. Anyone who flew in through Montreal in last 72 hours should probably get checked out pronto if running a high temp.

5. Medics in Mexico ARE confirming to colleagues here that the situation is 'far from under control'.

6. Pandemic alert likely 48 hours away if current spread is not contained.

7. As with Black Death, pays to take precautionary steps to protect yourself rather than wait for help to come charging over the hill.

I think a long unplanned break out at the lake might be in order. Just bought 2 x 50lb bags of rice and pasta / tinned foods on the off-chance.

Will hear more direct from horse's mouth by end-Monday.

RJM
25th Apr 2009, 23:51
Would something as simple as a paper breathing mask provide protection?

racedo
25th Apr 2009, 23:58
Real question is whether it is naturally occuring or man made.

con-pilot
25th Apr 2009, 23:59
Would something as simple as a paper breathing mask provide protection?

As a basic precaution, yes. However, throughly washing your hands with strong soap and hot water will be even better.

flapsforty
26th Apr 2009, 00:09
Extensive information about masks, the various types and their effectiveness: Masking Our Ignorance (http://birdflubook.com/a.php?id=97)

************

From the CDC website (http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/):

Antiviral Resistance
This swine influenza A (H1N1) virus is sensitive (susceptible) to the antiviral medications zanamivir and oseltamivir.
It is resistant to the antiviral medications amantadine and rimantadine.

RJM
26th Apr 2009, 00:24
Thanks flaps. It looks a bit gloomy. I think I'll prepare a bolt-hole in central Australia. :bored:

G-CPTN
26th Apr 2009, 00:57
Despite the apparently gloomy outlook of doom, realise that many people already die from the current strains of Influenza. The figures currently being quoted for the latest outbreak are, at present, merely 'cause for concern' (and a reason for extra precautions).

Don't panic!

Each year 3-4,000 deaths are attributed to influenza in the UK.
During epidemics, can be much higher, e.g. 30,000 excess deaths in 1989-90 with 89% of these being in people aged over 65 years.
From:- Influenza (http://www.patient.co.uk/showdoc/40000372/)

In Europe, estimates suggest that influenza is responsible for around 40000 to 220000 excess deaths, depending on the severity of the epidemic
(from a very heavy technical source about preparation for pandemics)

researchers estimate that an average of 36,000 people die from complications of influenza each year. Another 11,000 people per year die from RSV, which causes upper and lower respiratory tract infections, primarily in young children and older adults.
From:- Number of US influenza deaths higher than estimated - Letters | AORN Journal | Find Articles at BNET (http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0FSL/is_3_77/ai_99237596/)

See also:- Influenza - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza)

dead_pan
26th Apr 2009, 01:10
BBC News reported earlier that the annual flu vaccine may be effective in preventing or mitigating this virus, given that it is the H1N1 variant. This could explain why most (all?) of the victims have been under 45 i.e. people who have either not previously had a flu vaccine and/or who have a built-up a level of flu resistance.

The fact the world's health authorities have been on alert for an avian flu pandemic for some years now should put us in a strong position to deal rapidly and effectively with this particular outbreak.

(Is it me or are the media getting ahead of themselves on this particular story? Let's not create mass hysteria and wait for the facts)

con-pilot
26th Apr 2009, 01:37
(Is it me or are the media getting ahead of themselves on this particular story? Let's not create mass hysteria and wait for the facts)

No, it is not just you.






(Unless the media is holding something back that we don't know about. Oh wait, the media holding something back? God that is funny, I'm just knocking myself out here. HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Never happen.)

G-CPTN
26th Apr 2009, 02:09
AFAIK, not all the Mexico cases (including the deaths) have been positively identified as the rogue variant.
Apparently some of the US cases have no association with Mexico.

V2-OMG!
26th Apr 2009, 02:56
I hope the media hysteria is not as virulent as it was in 1976 when President Ford was pressured into a nation-wide vaccination that caused more sickness and death than the flu itself.

My uncle was one of the casualties. He was on his way to the clinic when it was announced over the radio that the vaccination programme was going to be cancelled. My aunt heard the announcement, but it was too late for him. (No cell phones in those days.) He was vaccinated, then had a serious reaction which weakened his bad heart, and passed away shortly after that.

qwertyplop
26th Apr 2009, 05:18
.....apparently it's the pigs though.

BA worker now in hospital in Harrow after returning to the UK on a Mexico flight.

BBC NEWS | UK | UK monitoring swine flu outbreak (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8018887.stm)

:eek:

bnt
26th Apr 2009, 11:29
The latest BBC report (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8019100.stm) says that the BA crew member does not have this particular lurgi - but that ten students in NZ may have it.

airship
26th Apr 2009, 13:47
Some of the replies on the BBC's website Mexico flu: Your experiences (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/talking_point/8018428.stm) make interesting reading: I'm a specialist doctor in respiratory diseases and intensive care at the Mexican National Institute of Health...
...The truth is that mortality is even higher than what is being reported by the authorities, at least in the hospital where I work it. It is killing three to four patients daily, and it has been going on for more than three weeks. (Emphasis added)

Another one: I work as a resident doctor in one of the biggest hospitals in Mexico City and sadly, the situation is far from "under control"...
...Authorities distributed vaccines among all the medical personnel with no results, because two of my partners who worked in this hospital (interns) were killed by this new virus in less than six days even though they were vaccinated as all of us were. The official number of deaths is 20, nevertheless, the true number of victims are more than 200. I understand that we must avoid to panic, but telling the truth it might be better now to prevent and avoid more deaths. (Emphasis added)

You have to wonder whether or not what's killing people in Mexico has much, if anything to do, with what's so far (also) apparently infected a few Americans and others elsewhere (but without any lethal consequences)...?! :confused:

Looking forward to all your "Yeah, but no, but yeah, but ..." input!

Matari
26th Apr 2009, 17:31
I just went to my favorite Mexican restaurant today for brunch:

On the menu: Tacos Al Pastor, corn tortillas filled with spiced and slow cooked pork, cilantro, and onions. I'll let you know if I catch cold:

http://www.dayamn.com/media/tacosalpastor.jpg

BenThere
26th Apr 2009, 18:07
I spent four days in Mexico City this month, two full flights in and out with long layovers downtown. Then I took a five day, end of winter break to Cabo San Lucas. I feel fine. But the current threat made me recall the early 80's when I was a carefree bachelor in the San Francisco Bay Area and AIDS was newly identified. I was frightened enough to commit to lifelong monogamy, so relieved when my HIV test came back negative.

I think it's a good idea to wash your hands at every opportunity, keep a safe distance from coughing and sneezing people, and if you're an airline pilot, always wipe the flight controls with alcohol pads. By the way, I haven't ever had a sick day in my 33 year flying career.

brockenspectre
26th Apr 2009, 18:30
The latest CNN Breaking News alert/email says

-- The federal government declares a public health emergency, as the number of cases of swine flu in the U.S. rises to 20.

Have to say I find this quite interesting. If, as we have been told, this strain is in fact susceptible to certain antibiotics then why is there a need for an emergency? If tens of thousands of people worldwide already die annually from "regular 'flu" then what is making governments/media brew this up into a pandemic?

Cynics might suggest that it is one way of getting the media to turn folks attention away from economic troubles and misdeeds :hmm: ....

airship
26th Apr 2009, 18:37
I was frightened enough to commit to lifelong monogamy, so relieved when my HIV test came back negative. OK?! Well, we know what newly-elected South-African President Zuma might say in light of recent events: "Take a (luke-warm) shower!" (and get over it...?!) :}

PS. Matari, those tortillas look very good indeed. Promise me you won't be sharing hugs and kisses with the chef though, just in case...?! :uhoh:

planepsycho
26th Apr 2009, 19:15
There has been two new cases of this flu confirmed in Kansas. Getting a little too close for comfortPlease keep your bird/swine flu on your side of the Mississippi Connie:E

Think I'll just stay in the house till it blows over.



(Got plenty of Scotch.)If all else fails, I shall be using the Jack Daniels barrier method....between us I believe we can control any future outbreaks;)

eastern wiseguy
26th Apr 2009, 19:19
I'm confused........so it was SUPPOSED to be avian flu wot was going to kill us....now it's swine.


Does this mean that Pigs CAN fly?:)

V2-OMG!
26th Apr 2009, 19:19
..... if you're an airline pilot, always wipe the flight controls with alcohol pads.

Better yet, do the Howard Hughes thing. Insist that the flight and cabin crew wear white gloves, wrap the controls in Saran Wrap, and never ever venture outside the cockpit to use the loo where all those passenger germs are wafting about. Take your own glass milk bottles. When they are precisely filled, line them up in a neat row outside the c/pit door. Make sure someone tells the FAs they aren't part of the beverage service.

If tens of thousands of people worldwide already die annually from "regular 'flu" then what is making governments/media brew this up into a pandemic?

Because Obama just quashed his pre-election promise to ban automatic assault rifles?

con-pilot
26th Apr 2009, 19:21
Please keep your bird/swine flu on your side of the Mississippi Connie

Say now, hang on a minute, the first reported outbreak in the US was on your side of the Mississippi, in New York City. North of the Mason-Dixon line admittedly, but still your side of the river. :p

V2-OMG!
26th Apr 2009, 20:00
Toronto, Canada went through this in 2003 with the SARS (Severe Accute Respiratory Syndrome) outbreak.

"On 23 April the WHO advised against all but essential travel to Toronto, noting that a small number of persons from Toronto appear to have "exported" SARS to other parts of the world. Toronto public health officials noted that only one of the supposedly exported cases had been diagnosed as SARS and that new SARS cases in Toronto were originating only in hospitals. Nevertheless, the WHO advisory was immediately followed by similar advisories by several governments to their citizens. On 29 April WHO announced that the advisory would be withdrawn on 30 April. Toronto tourism suffered as a result of the WHO advisory, prompting The Rolling Stones and others to organize the massive Molson Canadian Rocks for Toronto (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molson_Canadian_Rocks_for_Toronto) concert, commonly known as SARSstock, to revitalize the city's tourism trade."
- Wikipedia.
CBC News Indepth: SARS Benefit (http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/sarsbenefit/)

Most Canadians still remember the SARS episode vividly and would impart a cautiously optimistic view of these recent events.

airship
26th Apr 2009, 21:25
Well, I've been out, fed the stray pudicats. Managed to follow the advice of the unnamed US embassy official (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8019100.stm): People are being strongly urged to avoid shaking hands, and the US embassy has advised visitors to the country to keep at least six feet (1.8m) from other people. Never flown 1st class, so can't really comment on whether that's feasible. But I reckon everyone in business or economy are fecked...?! :eek:

G-CPTN
26th Apr 2009, 21:45
Two people 'recently-returned' from Mexico are said to be in precautionary isolation in a hospital in Scotland. It was stressed that there are none that have severe symptoms.
BBC NEWS | UK | Scotland | Glasgow, Lanarkshire and West | Scots tourists in swine flu alert (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/glasgow_and_west/8019544.stm)
Medical authorities are tracing those who might have been in contact with the 'suspects'. A spokeswoman said that significant stocks of anti-viral drugs that are said to be effective (such as Tamiflu) are held as part of the government pandemic precautions (which have been rehearsed for some time now).
The Chief Medical Officer is by training and experience an epidemiologist and has introduced plans:-
Pandemic flu (http://www.networks.nhs.uk/138)

Pandemic - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic)

I can vouch for the fact that significant contingency plans are in place in the UK. My son (in his last place of employment with a very large telecoms company - not BT) was party to preparations to establish an alternative communication network in the event of 'collapse' (due to staffing failures) of the normal BT network.

Professor Sir Liam Donaldson MSc (http://www.nhshistory.net/cvliamdonaldson.htm)
Liam Donaldson - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liam_Donaldson)


.

ORAC
26th Apr 2009, 23:55
.......In Britain, Mr Johnson advised all returning Britons who felt feverish not to go to their GPs or hospitals, but to stay at home and contact NHS Direct instead...... :uhoh::uhoh:

Rollingthunder
27th Apr 2009, 00:03
Put a fence around Mexico......no, they're already working on that sieve.
Close the airspace.
Close the ports.
Instead of the world, possibly suffering, one country can bite the bullet until it get's it's house in order.

I said the same about China and SARS.:sad:

Effluent Man
27th Apr 2009, 10:08
Summed up in the words of two of my favourite sitcom characters:

"Don't Panic"

"We're doomed I tell you,all doomed"

SpringHeeledJack
27th Apr 2009, 10:25
Assuming that there will be a fair bit of mileage to be had by the meeja over this outbreak, we shouldn't be too suprised if 'the little boy is crying wolf' yet again. I have become somewhat cynical and as a previous poster mentioned it makes a nice topic to take our eyes off the birdy in these 'interesting' times.

That said, how long, in general do/does such viruses (virii ?) and bacteria stay in situ and alive when an inner space is contaminated, such as an aircraft and it's ventilation system ? Perhaps i'm being alarmist, but let's say an aircraft that's done a Mexico-Europe flight will be utilised very soon after landing for another long haul flight to wherever and so on, it stands to reason that the danger of spreading this dreaded lurgy is somewhat large. Are there measures in place to sterilise such systems ?


Regards


SHJ

bnt
27th Apr 2009, 11:45
If you've been around pigs for years, you've likely built up some resistance to all manner of porcine diseases. If you've been avoiding pigs as "unclean", you're out of luck on that score. I'm somewhere in between: spent quite a bit of time on farms as a kid, but not since then.

(This is why you let kids play outside in the dirt, not keep them inside "in case they catch something": they need to build up resistance. Ditto for over-use of antibiotics and anti-bacterial cleaners.)

Storminnorm
27th Apr 2009, 11:52
Funny thing that. It probably accounts for the fact that only the
"Posh" kids got some diseases, whilst us "urchins", that grubbed
around in the muck, were of robustly sound constitutions.
Farmer I used to help out used to castrate piglets he kept.
The fried "By products" were delicious. Hmmm!!!

dead_pan
27th Apr 2009, 12:49
Reverent mode: ON


how long, in general do/does such viruses (virii ?) and bacteria stay in situ and alive when an inner space is contaminated, such as an aircraft and it's ventilation system ?


Viruses such as this will generally not survive for very long outside of their host. This disease is being transmitted human-to-human via direct or close indirect contact (eg people inhaling the 'aerosol' from sneezes etc).

(hopefully this post will pass muster)

airship
27th Apr 2009, 13:14
...and if you're an airline pilot, always wipe the flight controls with alcohol pads. You wot? And risk being accused of being drunk in charge of a magnificient flying machine...?! ;)

Seriously though, would anyone else agree with my thoughts concerning current events?

That if the extent of the measures being employed today for the 'control and containment' of this unexplained 'Mexican swine-flu virus' are in any way based on the measures 'the World' has planned for and would instigate in the event of a possible outbreak / pandemic involving human-human transmission of a 'H5N1-origin bird flu virus mutation' are anything to go by, then our governments have pretty much wasted all the money spent in devising such safeguards and plans over the past few years...?! :eek:

I mean, 'they' haven't been able to contain the spread of the 'Mexican swine-flu' (whatever it really is) very well, or at all, yet, have they?

So what might we expect if (or when) we're really (if we're not already) dealing with a H5N1 based pandemic...?! :rolleyes:

frostbite
27th Apr 2009, 13:14
It has also been said that this (H1N1 whatever that means) variant has been around in similar form before, so those over about 40 are likely to have some built in resistance.

Unlike other strains, which usually pose the greatest risk to that age group.

flapsforty
27th Apr 2009, 13:28
Influenza A virus causes influenza in birds and some mammals
Each influenza A virus has one of 16 H subtypes and one of 9 N subtypes.

H1N1 is a subtype of the species influenza A virus. The "H" refers to the hemagglutinin protein, and the "N" refers to the neuraminidase protein.


Influenza A viruses contain 8 distinct RNA genes and reassortment of these can occur if two different viruses infect the same animal so that viruses emerge with a set of genes made up of some of the genes from one virus and some from the other.


In the 20th Century there were 4 pandemics of influenza due to the emergence of new and genetically distinct strains in humans: 1918 (H1N1), 1957 (H2N2), 1968 (H3N2) and 1977 (H1N1). The 1957 and 1968 pandemic viruses differed from the preceding viruses in humans by the substitution of genes that came from avian viruses, suggesting they arose by genetic reassortment of viruses of human and avian origin

H1N1 has mutated into various strains including the Spanish Flu strain (now extinct in the wild), mild human flu strains, endemic pig strains, and various strains found in birds. A variant of H1N1 was responsible for the Spanish flu pandemic that killed some 50 million to 100 million people worldwide from 1918 to 1919.

airship
27th Apr 2009, 13:38
Circumstantial evidence currently supports the theory that it is better to be fore-warned than possessing a thick-skin and simply ignoring best practice. Please extend these recommendations to your friends.

dead_pan
27th Apr 2009, 13:51
Spanish Flu strain (now extinct in the wild)
I hadn't realised they'd finally identified and isolated this particular virus. I recall there were some efforts a few years back to find the virus (didn't a team of scientists exhume some Spanish Flu victims' bodies in Svalbard?) but they only recovered fragments of it.

Its a bit worrying to know that this virus lives on in some Government lab.

Storminnorm
27th Apr 2009, 14:45
It's a bit worrying that this virus lives on in some Govt research dept.
You can say that again!!!!
Still, I suppose they'll look after it as well as they looked after the
Foot & Mouth Disease virus, Eh????

airship
27th Apr 2009, 15:40
Can't believe that someone here on PPRuNe actually deleted my previous post questioning whether the on-going efforts to control the current human-human propagation of 'Mexican swine flu' (after all those years of preparing for a global pandemic involving a H5N1-origin 'bird flu' mutating virus) has been quite disastrous...?! And that 'if this is the best' that the world's health authorities have been able to achieve so far at limiting the spread of a (hopefully much-less threatening virus), what if the world had been dealing with a truly H5N1 based 'human to human transmissable' bird-flu pandemic of the worst kind...?!

Who pays the mods here anyway...?! :uhoh:

New glasses needed Airship?
Post 38.

mixture
27th Apr 2009, 16:35
, so those over about 40 are likely to have some built in resistance.


Ok....I've got no medical background but .....

I think it's time to say that some people here should probably go read the Swine influenza frequently asked questions over at the WHO website here :
http://www.who.int/entity/csr/swine_flu/swine_flu_faq.pdf

It seems there is not necessarily any resistance over 40 ! Unless perhaps you're over 40 and you've had extensive contact with live pigs, and hence already had some sort of exposure in your lifetime ?? I don't know ?

This is Swine Flu ..... not the usual flu type stuff that (generally) only affects the vulnerable.

P.S. Not targetting frostbite explicitly here.... just trying to stop armchair theorists from coming up with Google based theories on virus activities. This same link above could apply to the person who asked about airline cabins and cross-contamination, for example....

Rollingthunder
27th Apr 2009, 16:36
Those paper masks lose all effectiveness after five minutes due to the moisture in your breath. So I'm told.

22 Degree Halo
27th Apr 2009, 16:38
A map, but not just any old map: H1N1 Swine Flu - Google Maps (http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&t=p&msa=0&msid=106484775090296685271.0004681a37b713f6b5950&ll=22.22809,-111.357422&spn=35.796953,63.896484&z=4)

mixture
27th Apr 2009, 16:42
Those paper masks lose all effectiveness after five minutes due to the moisture in your breath.

There are some newspaper photos around of a Mexican couple kissing whilst wearing the paper masks.

Now that is a definition of loosing all effectivness ! :ok:

I suspect the point of the paper masks is to stop you spluttering and sneezing over others, rather than protecting you if you are too close to someone.

dead_pan
27th Apr 2009, 16:51
I wouldn't say the response has been that poor to be honest. Governments are between a rock and a hard place when it comes to dealing with public health crises such as this. React too soon and they're accused of scaremongering, too late and they're accused of complacency. Given the relatively slow burn of this particular outbreak (100 fatalities in 6 weeks?) I don't think they've done too badly.

... and, yes, the mods do appear to be exercising their editorial oversight on this thread more so than usual (my hit-rate is about 1 in 3 posts making the editorial cut). I daren't say any more for fear of censure or worse.

er340790
27th Apr 2009, 17:07
"By the way, I haven't ever had a sick day in my 33 year flying career."


Hmmmm, so by the law of averages, what you're saying is that in those 33 years you have worked an awful lot of days while sick.

Just how many sick days you have CAUSED in 33 years! :confused: :}

frostbite
27th Apr 2009, 17:55
Not targetting frostbite explicitly here

That's very generous of you, but I was only quoting one of the 'experts' on TV.

V2-OMG!
27th Apr 2009, 18:19
G-CPTN, just heard that news flash too.

Back on topic. Does anyone here remember the Hong Kong flu of 1968? If so, how would you compare it to what is happening now.
It apparently killed one-million worldwide.

G-CPTN
27th Apr 2009, 18:23
The two 'Scottish' patients are confirmed to have 'swine flu' and a further seven of the 22 contacts of the two are showing flu-like symptoms.
BBC NEWS | UK | Scotland | Glasgow, Lanarkshire and West | Two swine flu cases are confirmed (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/glasgow_and_west/8020208.stm)

V2-OMG!
27th Apr 2009, 18:34
H1N1 has mutated into various strains including the Spanish Flu strain (now extinct in the wild), mild human flu strains, endemic pig strains, and various strains found in birds. A variant of H1N1 was responsible for the Spanish flu pandemic that killed some 50 million to 100 million people worldwide from 1918 to 1919.

Flaps40, a few years ago I took a boat tour of the westcoast - from the San Juan Islands of Washington State to the Gulf Islands of B.C., and up Deception Pass (the inland coastal waterway to Alaska).

The tour guide mentioned the Spanish pandemic of 1918. In those days, it was not uncommon for one family to inhabit an entire island and were totally self-sufficient. They were virtually cut-off from the rest of the world (but some would make a yearly trip to the closest port to stock up on dry goods etc.) Yet, many of these island familes were wiped-out by the flu. Some had not had any contact with the outside world long before the outbreak. The saddest story involved one family who had expired in a dinghy and were found drifting in the pass. They were trying to reach the doctor on the mainland.

How did they contact the flu? No one really knows.

Paradise Lost
27th Apr 2009, 18:35
Wot happened to H2N1, H3N1 and H4N1? Probably reptile flu, insect flu and aardvark flu respectively?

V2-OMG!
27th Apr 2009, 18:46
What is different about this virus is the fact that it most of the cases involve those who are healthy, aged 25 - 38

No wonder President Obama declared it a national emergency. He doesn't want to lose those taxpayers who are approaching their prime wage-earning years and spawning future taxpayers.

Work.
Breed.
Pay taxes.
Die.

mooguy
27th Apr 2009, 20:11
I am no medical expert............but for some odd reason , I do remember hearing he media how any common. over the counter medicines containing codeine can help slow this virus. Hoiw, I do not know......

Please do not blame me if there is:ok: an upward trend in colonscopies in the near future!

labrador pup
27th Apr 2009, 20:16
Can anyone explain why the virus is killing people in Mexico but in other parts of the world people don't seem to have serious symptoms? Is it because it has to pass thorough several hosts, gathering virulence, or are health/hygiene standards in Mexico lower than elsewhere? Or some other reason? :confused:

hellsbrink
27th Apr 2009, 20:17
Well, I think codeine acts as a cough suppressant as well as a painkiller so if you aren't coughing your lungs up then I guess there's less chance of spreading the virus so much.

hellsbrink
27th Apr 2009, 20:22
Lab pup

I think we're looking at around 10% of those Mexicans who have caught this flu dying (so far), so since there's a far smaller number of reported cases in other countries it may be that there could be fewer deaths in places like Britain due to fewer people actually having it.

G-CPTN
27th Apr 2009, 20:29
There also seems to be mucho confusio WRT the actual cause(s) of death with many of the victims being recorded 'generally' whilst other figures included all deaths regardless of cause. It is said that the public hospitals in Mexico are of questionable quality and may well be short of suitable drugs (and maybe even knowledge).

er340790
27th Apr 2009, 21:56
Per BBC "Britain is among the best prepared countries for a possible future pandemic, with a stockpile of 33.5 million doses of antiviral treatments."

Let's see. Antiviral treatments = 33.5m. Population = 60.0m.

Hmmm.... that's a bit like saying "RMS Titanic is among the best prepared liners for a possible iceberg collision, with lifeboat capacity of over 700."

dead_pan
27th Apr 2009, 22:17
We are now apparently on a Phase 4 alert. The Phase knob goes up to 11 in case you were wondering (a la Spinal Tap).

con-pilot
27th Apr 2009, 23:03
According the CDC 36,000 Americans die from flu every year, 12,000 in the UK if anyone is curious. So, as so far there are only 40 some cases confirmed in the US, two in the UK and no deaths, what is all the fuss about?

Slow news week?

racedo
27th Apr 2009, 23:13
"Britain is among the best prepared countries for a possible future pandemic, with a stockpile of 33.5 million doses of antiviral treatments."

Let the taxpayers and their families get it first.

To be fair the way humanoid species work there will be people who will not catch it no matter what you do. Some people have built in immune systems to various diseases but with others it will knock them dead, doesn't mean to say people are immune to everything just some built in survival genes so everyone doesn't get wiped out by same plague.

G-CPTN
28th Apr 2009, 00:39
Travel to Mexico now 'not recommended' unless absolutely necessary . . .

Ten West
28th Apr 2009, 00:41
Yeah, I've just heard that. And I'm on night shift with two Mexico flights in the morning.

Bring on the 'phone calls... :rolleyes:

BlooMoo
28th Apr 2009, 01:18
Symptoms are a cough, sore throat, bit of a temp etc...

Statistical significance of deaths after 3+ weeks? Err, zero give or take 0.000001%.

Meeja needing to sex things up to get traction in this blog/twitter/internet age?

Governments needing to find an alternate state of alarm for their subjects as scrutiny of the current one isn't going 100% as planned?

Mix together and stick in the oven for 30 mins. What do you get?:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

KILLER SWINE FLU (http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23681573-details/Killer+swine+flu%3A+25+tested+in+UK/article.do)

* Tourists booked on flights to Mexico at Manchester refused to board the jet.

* Doctors boarded flights at Gatwick and Heathrow to examine passengers.

*  Health experts urged people to wash their hands and dispose of tissues to minimise the risk of infection.

* The chief medical officer said the worst-case scenario was of 750,000 deaths in Britain.

AcroChik
28th Apr 2009, 01:35
Here is a link to Google's map of global distribution of confirmed swine flu cases:

H1N1 Swine Flu - Google Maps (http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&t=p&msa=0&msid=106484775090296685271.0004681a37b713f6b5950&ll=32.639375,-110.390625&spn=15.738151,25.488281&z=5)

parabellum
28th Apr 2009, 03:15
34,000 die each winter in the USA from 'normal' 'flu. SARS was a storm in a teacup, measured on a global scale, I suspect Pig 'flu will be the same.

RJM
28th Apr 2009, 06:49
Whether swine flu is a 'false alarm' (for most of us) or the real thing, the beginning of it will look the same...

For what it's worth, I heard this today from an expert on tropical diseases:

'We'll know in a week whether H5N1 is really something to worry about.'

RiscOS
28th Apr 2009, 10:41
Special TV news bulletin moments ago confirms that the school pupils who returned to NZ from Mexico on Saturday with flu symptoms have swine flu.

The good news is that in common with other cases outside Mexico, the symptoms are minor, and recovery rapid.

Don't think I'll panic just yet :ok:

simon brown
28th Apr 2009, 13:24
Its worth pointing out that all the deaths are occurring in hospitals ie cases sufficiently serious enough to warrant hospitalisation ( its amazing the statistically the amount of deaths that are associated with hospitals)the vast majority of people who are displaying these symptoms are not dropping down dead on the street...once that happens then we have to worry

Mass hysteria

I heard a wonderful nugget of advice from a journo on local radio yesterday. They proudly announced that they feel all flights from Mexico should be stopped entering the UK..until the interviewee pointed out that if you were stranded in Mexico you'd probably find an alternative route home , say, via New York , then Amsterdam then probably to a regional airport in the UK spreading the virus on the way and reducing containment possibilities .....Dunce!

OFSO
28th Apr 2009, 13:38
it may be that there could be fewer deaths in places like Britain due to fewer people actually having it.

Hellsbrink, that'll do it every time !

airship
28th Apr 2009, 14:03
Even as the UN's WHO have raised their alert level status, noone, not even the CDC, the EU's Health Commission, or even the UK's Chief Medical Officer Sir Liam Donaldson (forgetting for a moment, all the King's men and all the King's horses...), so far as I'm aware, have even attempted to explain why this Mexican swine flu has resulted in several hundred deaths in Mexico itself, yet has had no lethal consequences to those infected outside of Mexico...?!

Do they really know what's going on (whilst issuing comforting blanket statements about how well we're all prepared)...?! :rolleyes::confused::eek:

Cheerio
28th Apr 2009, 14:13
Showing my ignorance here (again). Did Mexico suffer significantly from the post-WW1 outbreak? Maybe those who are descended from the countries worst affected still retain some residual immunity?

Storminnorm
28th Apr 2009, 14:17
I see my Medical Research Company shares have soared!!!!

airship
28th Apr 2009, 15:06
Showing my ignorance here (again). Did Mexico suffer significantly from the post-WW1 outbreak? Maybe those who are descended from the countries worst affected still retain some residual immunity? Well, that's partly why I'm confused. Unless I'm very much mistaken, I distinctly heard a (WHO I think) spokes-person answering a journalist's question about the effectiveness of currently available vaccines against the 'Mexican swine flu' virus yesterday. In 'words to the effect' as I recall it, she replied that: "as this was a completely-new virus, hitherto unknown, none of the existing vaccines could be guaranteed to offer any real protection. Once properly identified, a vaccine could be developed quite rapidly, but sufficient production of any vaccine on a massive scale would take months and never be able to meet demand (should this develop into a real pandemic)"...

Maybe we should all just hope that in order for 'Mexican swine flu' to have lethal consequences, infected persons must have consumed chilli concarné, nachos, tacos etc. for breakfast, lunch and dinner for at least 30 consecutive days or more preceding the infection...?! :uhoh:

Vaya Con Dios!

Ringway Flyer
28th Apr 2009, 15:24
With the media doing their level best to cause a pandemic panic situation, I wonder what is the probability of an infected passenger passing his complaint on to the rest of the SLF owing to the aircon system re-circulating the air around the cabin? Is the air filtered, and are the filters capable of removing a nasty virus?
Just curious.....

cwatters
28th Apr 2009, 15:41
Yes and no..

"Aircraft cabins do not help spread infectious diseases, says report..."

Air travel and infections: Aircraft cabins don't spread infectious diseases as filtered air quality hgiher than cities | DWS Aviation (http://www.dancewithshadows.com/aviation/aircraft-cabins-do-not-help-spread-infectious-diseases-says-report/)

yet..

"The case of interest, featuring SARS spread within aircraft, is of a flight from Hong Kong to Bejing. This flight was only a 3 hour duration and there were passengers infected as far away as 5 rows in front and 7 rows behind the index case"..

Infectious disease spread on airplanes | Gadling.com (http://www.gadling.com/2008/06/05/infectious-disease-spread-on-airplanes/)

FE Hoppy
28th Apr 2009, 15:48
the re-circ filters on my jet are supposed to remove 99.9996% of all matter greater than 2 microns.

Don't know how big a virus is. do you?

Re-circ fans are a red hearing anyway as even without re-circulated air you still are trapped in a confined space with local eddies of air transporting all kinds of things.

Ex Cargo Clown
28th Apr 2009, 15:48
Recirculated air passes through HEPA filters so the only possibility of infection is for someone to pass it directly to you.

The same possibility as a bus, train etc.

Nothing to see here....... :ugh:

INNflight
28th Apr 2009, 15:52
Poor F/As handing out meals to 350 semi-sick pax :eek: :E

G-CPTN
28th Apr 2009, 17:01
It is being suggested that the outbreak evolved from a pig farm (in Mexico).
Those affected were probably 'poor' people who didn't seek medical attention until they were seriously ill.

As stated, there is no effective vaccine.

A vaccine is a preventative measure.

Drugs such as Tamiflu are anti-viral medicines that are effective (to some degree) in treating those who have already acquired the infection - but it depends on early administering.

If the initial patients (and the medicos) were unaware of the seriousness of their symptoms, they wouldn't have been considering these drugs (even if they had any supplies - which is questionable given the location).

Once the 'cat is out of the bag' and tests have identified the strain (and the mortality) then the sophisticated (and expensive) anti-viral medicines can be given - if available.

Britain is well-prepared (see my contributions above), so does have procedures (and medicines) in place.
See:- Pandemic flu (http://www.networks.nhs.uk/138)

In the event of a pandemic, priority treatment will be given to key medical workers.

An effective vaccine will not be available for several months, so 'success' will depend on containment of infected patients (and their contacts) to minimise the spread of the disease.

Historically, influenza pandemics have had a 'mild' primary phase followed by a period when precautions are relaxed, and then a more serious outbreak during which many more are infected (and more seriously affected).

drivez
28th Apr 2009, 21:56
Well the news has been pretty boring lately, so what better way to scare-monger and make people run for the hills than a pandemic.

Love how on the BBC website they devoted three paragraphs to an expert who said that 265 million people would die and we should all just accept the inevitable. Then they gave 1 paragraph to a few experts who said that it may in fact, and in their opinion probably would, come to nothing, and that we are infact well prepared.

mixture
28th Apr 2009, 23:17
Re: Cabin Air

For a level-headed, independent analysis, try a google for a Lancet article entitled "Transmission of infectious diseases during commercial air travel".

:ok:

BlooMoo
28th Apr 2009, 23:22
In the event of a pandemic, priority treatment will be given to key medical workers.

With 99.999999999999999999999999% certainty, there will be no 'pandemic'.

With 99.999999999999999999999999% certainty, the fears of the layman will be milked till their t!ts are dry on this one.

Bear in mind that the current global incidence of the common cold, bog standard influenza, dying from tripping on pavements or car accidents and purchase of losing lottery tickets (among an almost uncountable other number of 'existence negatives') are already by definition pandemic phenomena.

This is just a 'fool most of the people most of the time' temporary deflection of attention from more immediate risks to our general livelihoods, like State bailouts, the EU and the State subsidised global warming armageddon hyperbole. :yuk:

mixture
28th Apr 2009, 23:32
BlooMoo,

There may still be a 'pandemic' in terms of the official WHO definition of a pandemic (see their definition of Phase 6, pandemic phase, on their website).

However, The Lancet again comes good with a level headed online editorial today entitled "Swine influenza:how much of a global threat ?" (see link on their homepage TheLancet.com - Home Page (http://www.thelancet.com/)). I'm not going to reproduce any of it's contents for reasons of copyright, but it is free to download without registration from their homepage for all to see.


Much like aviation stories, the media like a good bit of hype ....they don't like publishing bare facts.... :cool:

con-pilot
28th Apr 2009, 23:37
Oh, hey just heard on the news that a vaccine has just been made that will be available to be given out in.........................

In six months.

G-CPTN
28th Apr 2009, 23:38
Mexico City has banned restaurants and cafes from serving all food except takeaways in a bid to help prevent the spread of the deadly swine flu virus.
Schools across Mexico have closed and public gatherings are restricted,
From:- BBC NEWS | Americas | Mexico imposes swine flu measures (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8023820.stm)

Avitor
28th Apr 2009, 23:42
Oh, hey just heard on the news that a vaccine has just been made that will be available to be given out in.........................

In six months.

It would be silly for someone with my knowledge to categorically state that the whole thing has blown up out of all proportion but, it would be nice to know if anyone with connections to the people charged with producing a vaccine, and obviously on an earner, were fueling the scare.

G-CPTN
28th Apr 2009, 23:48
BBC NEWS | Health | Chief medical office on swine flu (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8022155.stm)

BlooMoo
28th Apr 2009, 23:52
There may still be a 'pandemic' in terms of the official WHO definition of a pandemic (see their definition of Phase 6, pandemic phase, on their website).


Please quote the specific link. The WHO website seems to have a retroviral virus associated with the term 'pandemic' resulting in a wide, and therefore limited value range, of interpretations of the term 'pandemic'.:confused:

peter we
29th Apr 2009, 00:07
It would be silly for someone with my knowledge to categorically state that the whole thing has blown up out of all proportion but, it would be nice to know if anyone with connections to the people charged with producing a vaccine, and obviously on an earner, were fueling the scare.

Why would they do that? the UK have already paid for the Vaccine in a 4 year deal. Actually producing the vaccine will cost a lot of money.

As for the 'scare', were 150 people scared to death?

CoodaShooda
29th Apr 2009, 00:08
Mexico City has banned restaurants and cafes from serving all food except takeaways in a bid to help prevent the spread of the deadly swine flu virus.
Schools across Mexico have closed and public gatherings are restricted,

except for the churches

which are reportedly open and doing a roaring trade :ugh:

Avitor
29th Apr 2009, 00:17
Why would they do that? the UK have already paid for the Vaccine in a 4 year deal. Actually producing the vaccine will cost a lot of money.

As for the 'scare', were 150 people scared to death?

Compare your 150 with the thousands of old people in the UK who die in the winter of the cold weather, and it will pale into insignificance.

That, at the present time is rather more of a pandemic than the swine flu hype.

G-CPTN
29th Apr 2009, 00:57
Mexico is experiencing an epidemic - a sudden increase in an acute medical condition among a community.
Sometimes a region will be host to an endemic where a proportion of a population get chronic conditions (such as malaria) that run at a steady level.
A pandemic is when an epidemic 'escapes' from a region and, due to the infectious nature of the illness it spreads rapidly an establishes itself in other geographical regions - often widely separated and develops into epidemic proportions and magnitude usually (almost by definition) globally.
Pan (in this context) means widespread (geographically)

If (only) the (entire) population of Mexico succumbed then it would still be just an epidemic unless discrete fresh outbreaks occurred at widely-spread centres of population.

BlooMoo
29th Apr 2009, 01:31
Mexico has experienced <200 dead people over the last couple of weeks and at 'best' most of that couple of hundred actually really did die directly and predominately from some new virus rather than died from something else but had a sniffle in the last few weeks and just a bad day at the casino would have probably done half of them in anyway..

This is a country with a population of >100,000,000 people.

So far therefore we have 1 in half a million, at most, actually dying from something 'new' but with completely unique symptoms like: a bit of a cough, sore throat, case of the sneezles...

And that's in Mexico, the supposedly plague infested epicentre of this Andromeda Strain of a case of sniffles. Even on the back of this we have the the Evening Standard (not, if I recall, themselves or their customers, within a continent's distance from black death city) headlining 'Killer flu virus already circulating in London’ with pictures of little kiddies in what looks like anti-radiation/bubonic-plague headgear. (http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23682130-details/Killer+flu+virus+%E2%80%98already+circulating+in+London%E2%8 0%99/article.do)

It's at times like this I feel embarrassed to be human. I really hope aliens don't land on Earth about now and make their clinical judgement on our species and decide that we're too thick to be worth preserving.

mixture
29th Apr 2009, 07:15
Bluemoo,

Please quote the specific link. The WHO website seems to have a retroviral virus associated with the term 'pandemic' resulting in a wide, and therefore limited value range, of interpretations of the term 'pandemic'.

WHO | Current WHO phase of pandemic alert (http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html)

Basically, from the link above, you will see that the WHO has a much narrower definition of 'pandemic' than 'worldwide pandemonium'. :ok:

G-CPTN,

A pandemic is when an epidemic 'escapes' from a region and, due to the infectious nature of the illness it spreads rapidly an establishes itself in other geographical regions - often widely separated and develops into epidemic proportions and magnitude usually (almost by definition) globally.

G-CPTN, I don't know your background, and so am being cautious here, but would suggest you review your understanding of the formal definition of pandemic. It does not necessarily need to happen in multiple regions, a large number of countries or great magnitude within a country.

The total number of countries is three, two in one WHO region, and one in another WHO region, for the WHO to call it a 'pandemic'.

For more info, see link above.

cwatters
29th Apr 2009, 07:45
One of the people confined to his home in the UK with mild symptopms was on TV last night talking to the media through a window. He said he had been advised to take Tamiflu but was unable to find any locally. Somewhat worrying at such an early stage as Tamiflu is meant to be taken within 48 hours of symptoms.

cwatters
29th Apr 2009, 07:50
If I heard right the WHO is advising companies not to switch production from seasonal flu vaccine to swine flu vaccine because seasonal flu kills 250,000 a year.

Roger Sofarover
29th Apr 2009, 09:15
The BBC are now stating exactly what notmyC150v2 has said above, of all the deaths so far in Mexico, only 7 have been confirmed as resulting from Swine Flu. The scare mongering is almost criminal. This story was taking up about 80%of the airtime yesterday on the BBC (and no doubt Sky News), shops are running out of face masks etc, it is just unbelievable. I am convinced now that quality of life would be improved no end if one assigned the TV and newspapers to the skip. Ignorance of all this reported rubbish really would be bliss.

Edit

They now have a journalist in the middle of Mexico interviewing a 5 year old boy!!! Who is supposed to be the start point of the 'pandemic':bored: Such riveting questions for TV (with the use of an interpreter) 'Were you sick', 'How do you feel now', 'when did you know you had swine flu'. The journo turns to the father 'well he just had a bit of a temperature and a runny nose and cough).

Why have they paid untold thousands for such a crappy pointless piece of journalism?

tom775257
29th Apr 2009, 11:25
Interestingly in Malta my girlfriend informs me that Tamiflu has been available to the population, so all her family have a full course waiting in the cupboard. I just received a course of Tamiflu today in England, I thought what the hell, I can imagine if it is required, there will be problems getting it so why not. Hopefully it will be a silly waste of money.

Interestingly my Father is a Professor in Med chem, they were looking at synthesising Oseltamivir if need arose at the uni, they decided it was very hard to make, probably take one person 3 days to make enough for one person's course (10 x 75mgs) with the equipment they have.

G-CPTN
29th Apr 2009, 11:46
BBC has announced the death (attributable to swine 'flu) of a two-year-old child in the USA.
U.S. has first death from swine flu | U.S. | Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN2938123420090429)

Blacksheep
29th Apr 2009, 12:53
Boeing just sent us an All Operators Message that links to previous messages covering SARS and Bird Flu that provide information and precautions against the swine influenza. We shall soon be seeing cabin crew clad in overalls and wearing rubber gloves and respirators. I've been of the opinion that the world has gone mad for a long time and see no reason to change my mind. Just wait until Ebola escapes from the Congo. :rolleyes:

airship
29th Apr 2009, 13:11
As G-CPTN just related, the 1st victim outside of Mexico is sadly, a 2 year old.

US authorities confirm that the death was from the H1N1 swine flu virus, however they did not release any further information such as whether the child and his family recently visited Mexico.

That's apparently important, so far as the WHO Pandemic Alert Level status (http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html) (currently at level 4) is concerned.

Unless I'm mistaken, the only reason we're not yet at level 5, is because there have not yet been any confirmed cases of human to human transmission 'wholly in another country' outside of Mexico (ie. someone who'd caught the virus in Mexico, returning to say the USA and then infecting others in turn).

At this stage, I can only surmise that we're only 24-72 hours away from a WHO level 5 alert. Followed by a level 6 in short course. Simply because 'the authorities' apparently already gave up on any ideas of 'containment' at the earliest stages... :uhoh:

All we need now is a Chinese poultry-farmer who's been studying Mexican pig-farming techniques in order to expand his farming expertise to be allowed to go home infected with the Mexican swine flu. Just what the H5N1 lying quietly in his chooks have been waiting for - the chance for 'a roll in the hay' with H1N1 perhaps...?! :eek:

I find it difficult to understand BlooMoo's (and others') attitudes. Most people accept that eventually, the 'big one' will hit California. Both are a question of when, not if. Young, healthy people don't usually die of 'run of the mill' influenza. When the 'winter flu', as it does, kills 10s / hundreds of thousands each year, it's because it attacks mostly aged folk who are already suffering from other serious ailments or conditions.

Whatever, it all looks like 'population control' without condoms - the Pope should approve...?! ;) :uhoh:

G-CPTN
29th Apr 2009, 17:43
US authorities confirm that the death was from the H1N1 swine flu virus, however they did not release any further information such as whether the child and his family recently visited Mexico.
A 23-month-old Mexican child has died of swine flu in Texas
The child had been visiting relatives in Texas when he fell ill.
US officials said the Mexican boy had arrived in the Texan border city of Brownsville with "underlying health issues" on 4 April and developed flu symptoms four days later, the Texas Department of State Health Services said.
He was later transferred to a hospital in Houston, where he died Monday night.
From:- BBC NEWS | Americas | US reports first swine flu death (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8024611.stm)

More alarming:-
Spain says it has confirmed the first case of swine flu in a person who has not travelled to Mexico.

Roger Sofarover
29th Apr 2009, 19:34
Well somebody is telling porkies.


On a serious note, around 800 people died today in the world from normal Flu.

What is going on with this story? We are all going to die from overexposure to media hype.

By the way, the poor child that died was from Mexico. The family were visiting the states.

G-CPTN
29th Apr 2009, 20:06
A 12-year-old girl from Devon is among three people from England who have contracted swine flu after visiting Mexico,
The 12-year-old arrived on the same Thompson flight into Birmingham International Airport from Cancun as Dawn and Iain Askham, the couple from Polmont, near Falkirk in Scotland.
Mr and Mrs Askham had been on their honeymoon and were the UK's first confirmed cases.
BBC NEWS | UK | England | Three in England have swine flu (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/8024780.stm)

Skyhigh86
29th Apr 2009, 20:55
What i find most interesting about this is that there have only been about 7 or so CONFIRMED deaths from Swine Flu.

The other 150 odd have "apparently" died from swine flu I.E unconfirmed cases, so thats basically people who have died with colds in the past month out of a city of 26,000,000 people.

I hav'nt quite decided to put my tin foil hat on and run away to my bunker at the end of the garden just yet.

I feel the media reaction has spread very much like a virus, on monday morning looking at google search there was around 20,000 articles. This evening there were around 40,000!

If anyone fancies a good media unfriendly/conspiracist film to watch at the moment i would highly recommend V for Vendetta!

bnt
29th Apr 2009, 21:54
What i find most interesting about this is that there have only been about 7 or so CONFIRMED deaths from Swine Flu.
A disease does not need to kill anyone, or even be considered serious, to earn the label of epidemic or pandemic. Body count is only one measure of the impact of a disease, and some media outlets are focusing on that to the exclusion of other real considerations. :ouch:

G-CPTN
29th Apr 2009, 21:56
The UN's World Health Organization has raised the alert over the spread of swine flu to level five - one short of a full-blown pandemic.
A phase five alert means human-to-human transmission in at least two countries.

From:- BBC NEWS | Americas | WHO raises pandemic alert level (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8025931.stm)
More at:- WHO confirms pandemic threat raised to 5 | Reuters (http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE53N22820090429)

22 Degree Halo
29th Apr 2009, 23:15
For those with plenty time on their hands, you may like to refresh this every so often. Veratect (Veratect) on Twitter (http://twitter.com/Veratect)

G-CPTN
30th Apr 2009, 13:59
The first Britons confirmed to have caught swine flu have been discharged from hospital after recovering.
First Minister Alex Salmond told the Scottish Parliament there was now one "probable" case of swine flu in Glasgow and 27 suspected cases across Scotland.
The first minister said a total of 41 people had now been tested and cleared for swine flu
There have been a total of five confirmed cases of swine flu in the UK
"Fortunately Scotland is very well prepared, not just because we've had a long-standing plan, but also because we activated that plan last weekend when we became aware of the possible cases in Scotland."
The probable case in Glasgow is travel related and not connected to the Askhams, Mr Salmond said.
From:- BBC NEWS | UK | Scotland | Scots Swine flu couple discharged (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/8026021.stm)

G-CPTN
30th Apr 2009, 15:04
A sixth UK case of swine flu has been confirmed in Newcastle.
The 'patient' (who lives in student accommodation - but is said not to be a student at Newcastle University) has recently returned from Mexico.

G-CPTN
30th Apr 2009, 15:21
Seventh and eighth cases confirmed in London - said to be recuperating at home (rather than in hospital).

Storminnorm
30th Apr 2009, 16:06
They should be kept in ISOLATION!!!!!

G-CPTN
30th Apr 2009, 16:14
Home-based isolation probably involves fewer contacts than hospital-based incarceration.
Do hospitals have adequate isolation provision these days? (and the suspects would have to be transported from their place of residence - more contacts).
Of course there's the issue of reprovisioning - will someone have to go out shopping (or will Mr T Esco's delivery service be 'compromised'?)?

brockenspectre
30th Apr 2009, 17:17
Probably a daft question but... what made the Mexican pigs so sick in the first place? and why now? or put another way, what would make those working with pigs susceptible now? Something must have been happening differently...

ORAC
30th Apr 2009, 17:37
Mexico has just ordered the population to stay at home for 5 days (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article6196625.ece). You'd need a bloody big hospital to quarantine that lot......

corsair
30th Apr 2009, 20:31
Shockingly our RTE news who have a habit getting it completely wrong like any good news organisation, somewhat allayed our fears by interviewing a genuine expert who pointed out that only Mexicans have died so far, elsewhere the flu has been quite mild. This he speculated may have been because they had direct contact with the pigs in question. Human to human infection seems far less virulent.

He also pointed out that some 200,000 people around the world die of one flu or another every year. So this interloper has a bit to go. This might also explain the exaggerated numbers so far in Mexico. They are just dying of normal flu viruses.

Another feature of this flu is that it somehow targets the immune system and uses it against the victim. The irony being that the stronger the immune system the worse the effect. So the younger you are, the stronger your immune system is, the greater the danger. This leads to the frightening scenario that if this pandemic takes hold the only people left will be us older, unfit and sickly types. :uhoh: On the other hand there might be a silver lining. No teenagers. :ok:

G-CPTN
30th Apr 2009, 20:44
http://www.dh.gov.uk/en/Publicationsandstatistics/Publications/PublicationsPolicyAndGuidance/DH_098685?IdcService=GET_FILE&dID=192246&Rendition=Web

airship
1st May 2009, 00:28
Further to G-CPTN's post above: You may have seen face masks being given out to the public in other countries on the news. However, the available scientific evidence shows that these basic face masks don’t protect people from becoming infected.
The best way to protect yourself and stop the spread of flu viruses is by using and disposing of tissues and washing your hands, as explained on the previous page.

Remember to CATCH IT, BIN IT, KILL IT...

...WHAT ELSE CAN I DO?

There are some other useful actions you can take now to prepare in case swine flu becomes more widespread:

Set up a network of ‘flu friends’.

Flu friends are neighbours, friends and relatives who can help you if you get ill. For example, they could collect medicines, food and other supplies for you, so that you don’t have to leave home if you are ill.
Sort of reads like one of those official 'Cold War' handouts about what you should do in the event of the USSR launching a nuclear attack on the UK - shelter under the stairs to the 1st floor, have a roll of tape handy to seal the air gaps in order to avoid radio-active fallout etc.

The current government's advice in the face of an imminent H1S1 swine flu pandemic? Have lots of tissues available and flu friends...?! :rolleyes: In other words, they've more or less 'washed their hands' of it all. :\

What happened to the Cooks (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/coventry_warwickshire/8027937.stm), a couple who'd recently returned from Mexico and felt unwell, fearing they might have caught the swine flu is especially telling.

Not that the UK is alone in her sad lack of a seriously cohesive plan to deal with global health pandemics. No country has yet established any valid 'containment measures', such as mandatory screening of those arriving from Mexico, let alone imposing travel restrictions or quarantine measures. Hardly surprising, when you consider that the W.H.O. ruled out the effectiveness of any such measures literally from D+1. :ugh:

Makes you wonder how the World would possibly cope if ever confronted with something really nasty, like H5N1 in a human to human transmissable form.

IMHO, the apparent complete inability of authorities to contain the current H1S1 swine flu outbreak should serve as a very serious warning to us all for the future.

It appears that some or all of the following factors are involved:

- Poor or non-existent alert procedures and reporting (ie. 3rd World) even within a reasonably modern and developing nation like Mexico.

- Perhaps too many over-paid and/or politically-intertwined W.H.O. officials who are supposed to issue advice (presumably all they can do is advise, they can't 'order anyone to take containment measures', merely recommend?)

- And always the politicians and their paymasters. Who was ever going to be brave enough to be the 1st to impose a ban on flights from Mexico or anything else? (Having said that, the French President Nicholas Sarkozy apparently did suggest that the EU should do exactly that recently, without success...)

Perhaps we'll be lucky and get away with it this time round. But unless there are a lot of huge changes (of attitudes?) made, we might not be so lucky the next time. In a sense, I can appreciate why so many here shrug it all off, preferring to believe that all the hullabaloo is the fault of a media thirsty for 'the next big story'. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if all this swine flu stuff was some sort of multiple-government conspiracy to take peoples' minds off all the dismal news regarding the global recession. On the other hand, today, when people are tightening their belts, and few can afford a long-haul foreign holiday anyway, a travel ban between some destinations might have been quite feasable (especially if governments gave the airlines yet another handout in compensation)...?! :E

PS. On the subject of face-masks, if they're so ineffective, then why do surgeons and nurses always wear then in the operating-theatre (admittedly, my knowledge comes from watching Caualty and Grey's Anatomy)? Do they wear them merely to avoid vomiting directly over the patient at the first sight of blood?

bnt
1st May 2009, 01:08
PS. On the subject of face-masks, if they're so ineffective, then why do surgeons and nurses always wear then in the operating-theatre (admittedly, my knowledge comes from watching Caualty and Grey's Anatomy)? Do they wear them merely to avoid vomiting directly over the patient at the first sight of blood?
I was reading about this yesterday, though I can't find a link right now. It has to do with moisture build-up, which means they're effective for short periods, e.g. a few hours in an operating theatre, but they lose their effectiveness after that.

Something I heard today, at University College Dublin (UCD), is that all four suspected cases in Ireland were UCD students, but that they all tested negative (http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0428/swineflu.html). Another case is now considered probable (http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/0430/swineflu.html).

notmyC150v2
1st May 2009, 05:46
Facemasks are used in surgeries mainly to prevent fluid (blood, saliva etc)droplets from entering the system of the surgeon or the patient. I have noticed that a lot of places now appear to add a plastic type of shield between the surgeon and the patient.

In the modern world we have to live with the fact that if a large scale pandemic really does occur, such as the spanish flu or H5N1 then a whole lotta folks are going to die and the remainder will just have to do the best they can. There is no real way of limiting the spread.

People will resist any attempt to limit travel - "I have a right to go, you can't stop me". They will find a way to get where they want to go no matter what happens. You also only need a small number of people, early in the phase to spread the disease among many, many others. Furthermore, this spread will occur BEFORE anyone is aware of the problem. You are contagious when there are no symptoms so how would you know who to confine?

The reality is that the precautions currently in place in Mexico and at airports around the world are for no other purpose than to make the rest of us comfortable and reassured at the fact that "something" is being done. Meaningless as that something really is.

ORAC
1st May 2009, 11:43
Reports now of cases of onward contamination to friends and family in the UK, Germany and Spain. I would expect the WMO to move it up to Stage 6 in the next day or so.

Pandemics do not have to be lethal, but a mild flu pandemic can be expected to cause 1-2 million deaths world-wide over a year.

It can also, of course, be much more virulent or, as previously experienced, be mild when fist discovered and then come around a second time, having acquired much higher virulence.

The Spanish flu of 1918-1919 went around three times, the first round was mild, the second and third rounds were the killers. That was a strain of Influenza A virus, subtype H1N1 - the same type as the current strain.

ORAC
1st May 2009, 12:20
Another feature of this flu is that it somehow targets the immune system and uses it against the victim. The irony being that the stronger the immune system the worse the effect. So the younger you are, the stronger your immune system is, the greater the danger. Cytokine Storm (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_storm)

Ken Wells
1st May 2009, 17:49
Spray door handles etc and minimise contact.

Use a bio-cidal gel they tend to be ant-bacterial active for longer than soap and water.

Simples
http://i595.photobucket.com/albums/tt35/cptkenwells/swineflu.jpg

G-CPTN
1st May 2009, 18:34
If, as they suggest, they contracted the 'flu 'on the aircraft', then that would suggest that someone else already had the infection. As the passengers all ended up in Britain, where is (are) this (these) people?
I believe that the young girl in Devon might have been on the same flight (it might be one of the other 'victims'), but I don't know the chronology of events.

mona lot
1st May 2009, 23:30
http://www.samliquidation.com/images/declar13.jpg

G-CPTN
1st May 2009, 23:34
BBC NEWS | UK | Second UK flu transfer case found (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/8028974.stm)

BBC NEWS | Asia-Pacific | Hong Kong 'flu' hotel sealed off (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8029871.stm)

I smiled at this:-
Mexico: 168 suspected deaths - 15confirmed

airsupport
2nd May 2009, 02:21
I know this flu business is not good, and may get much worse, but surely this is a bit over the top?

Particularly in this case, after flying all that way, it would not have taken much longer to continue on as planned to DC, rather than arrange a diversion and land in Boston.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

United Airlines B772 near Boston on May 1st 2009, flumergency

May 1st 2009 21:17Z


A United Airlines Boeing 777-200, registration N778UA performing flight UA-903 from Munich (Germany) to Washington Dulles,DC (USA) with 245 passengers and 14 crew, diverted to Boston,MA (USA) after a female passenger showed flu-like symptons.

The passenger was taken to hospital, the airplane continued its journey after two hours on the ground and reached Washington with a delay of 2 hours.

Authorities are currently very sensitive to flu like symptons due to a developing swine influenza of pandemic proportions. The World Health Organisation has declared the second highest pandemy alert level 5 after the first infection outside of Mexico has become known, signalling that the WHO believes in a global outbreak of the swine flu.

eagle 86
2nd May 2009, 02:53
I don't know about other countries but in Oz the krudd government over states everything - climate change - the recession - swine 'flu etc just to cover their @rses because they don't really know. Last year in Oz over 2,000 people died of "normal" 'flu. The QLD government has even suggested stockpiling food/water and bunkering down! Less than 10% of the population is going to be unemployed due to the recession - let me know when we get to 50% then I'll start to worry. A couple of months ago we were all going to be eaten by a plague of sharks - then it was rampaging mobs of salties! Now the collective state governments have discovered that bikies are the next great threat. Give me a break!!
GAGS
E86
PS Who remembers the Y2K phenomena - that was going to send us back to the stone age - if you listened to the "experts"!?

Airbubba
2nd May 2009, 04:03
Yep, its hitting over here in Asia, the masks are coming out, looks like the start of SARS II...

...The man, who was not identified, flew from Mexico to Shanghai on AeroMexico flight AM 98, then on to Hong Kong on China Eastern Airlines flight MU 505. He developed a fever after arriving in the territory Thursday afternoon, Hong Kong leader Donald Tsang told reporters.

While the man did not leave his flight in Shanghai, the case still raises concerns about the introduction of the virus on mainland China. Health experts fear the disease will be more difficult to contain if it begins to spread through Asia's densely populated countries.

My Way News - Hong Kong isolates hotel after 1st swine flu case (http://apnews.myway.com/article/20090502/D97TQEL80.html)

Dysag
2nd May 2009, 05:36
"UK experts at the National Institute for Medical Research outlined on Friday the work they are due to start on samples of the virus sent from the US. .... Analysis done so far suggests what they are dealing with is a mild virus and nowhere near as dangerous as the H5N1 avian flu strain that has caused scientists so much concern over the past decade".

(BBC News)

itinerant
2nd May 2009, 09:21
Airship wrote

Should we be bovvered?
Some of the replies on the BBC's website Mexico flu: Your experiences (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/talking_point/8018428.stm) make interesting reading: Quote:
I'm a specialist doctor in respiratory diseases and intensive care at the Mexican National Institute of Health...
...The truth is that mortality is even higher than what is being reported by the authorities, at least in the hospital where I work it. It is killing three to four patients daily, and it has been going on for more than three weeks.
(Emphasis added)

Another one: Quote:
I work as a resident doctor in one of the biggest hospitals in Mexico City and sadly, the situation is far from "under control"...
...Authorities distributed vaccines among all the medical personnel with no results, because two of my partners who worked in this hospital (interns) were killed by this new virus in less than six days even though they were vaccinated as all of us were. The official number of deaths is 20, nevertheless, the true number of victims are more than 200. I understand that we must avoid to panic, but telling the truth it might be better now to prevent and avoid more deaths.

Now if you go on the bbc link it's not working....see BBC - The Editors: Fixing the Have Your Say fault (http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/theeditors/2009/05/fixing_have_your_say_fault.html#comments)

I'm not one for conspiracy theories but it seems odd that all the tech resources of the Beeb haven't been able to fix it in 3 days....

ORAC
2nd May 2009, 10:46
Seems to be working fine for me. Latest post from Mexico:

InfofromMex (http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/profile/?userid=13943937)

I am contacting you from Mexico City because I am really worried that the information is not getting through correctly. At this point in Mexico we have 397 confirmed cases of Influenza A H1N1 virus (previously called Swine Flu) of which 16 deaths have been confirmed after reviewing 908 possible cases of this type of flu including the supposed original number of deaths that "floated" around for days of 159. Furthermore, of the 16 total confirmed deaths - 11 were from Mexico City, 3 from the State of Mexico, 1 from Oaxaca and 1 from Tlaxcala; 11 were woman and 6 were men; 9 deaths within the ages of 21 - 40. This is the only official information to this point. The Mexican government is working directly with the WHO and CDC and they are handling the same data. The virus at this point has a death index of close to 1.2%.

It is really important that this information is handled correctly to start putting this virus in perspective. Specially since we are talking about 397 cases of a virus in a country of +100 million people, and a virus that is curable and that is relatively mild.
--------------------------------------------------

Before you get carried away, 1.2% is a lot, lot worse than the usual seasonal flu rate of 0.1% - and just about everyone will be vulnerable with no immunity.

I saw an estimate that, based on no immunity, about 30% of the population would eventual get infected. Based on a conservative UK population of 60M, that's 18M, and with no increase in virulence, 1.2% gives a projected death rate in the UK of 216,000.

Independent: Swine flu: A health warning
(http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/swine-flu-a-health-warning-1677640.html) Global panic or media hype? After the week swine flu went worldwide, Health Editor Jeremy Laurance says there is genuine cause for alarm

itinerant
2nd May 2009, 11:37
Thanks ORAC. It was this link that was down BBC NEWS | Have Your Say | Swine flu: Your experiences (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/talking_point/8018428.stm) though it seems to be back up but with no adds since Thursday.

bnt
2nd May 2009, 12:00
Even if this 'flu is not as serious as first thought, I don't mind the official flap. I can look at it as a practice run for the real thing, a chance to spot where it might go wrong in the future. I could live without the media hype, though.

hellsbrink
2nd May 2009, 12:12
The problem with that though, bnt, is that when we keep getting too many false scares like this we're more likely to be complacent so when the big one hits it will hit harder than it should.

G-CPTN
2nd May 2009, 14:13
The danger will be - if depleted resources are not replenished.
It has taken some time to build up the stocks of Tamiflu (and the manufacturers are currently in full swing increasing supplies from 30 million to 50 million), and if the second phase hits before production supply (or government orders) are in place then we could see a very different situation.

G-CPTN
2nd May 2009, 15:33
Are we ignoring H2N3?
Gobonastick wrote:-
It's not H5N1 or H1N1 you gotta watch, it's H2N3.
(now transferred to the Fun and Foderol thread)
A search on Googoo revealed this:-
Everyone is blaming H1N1, but could a different strain of Influenza be the cause of Mexican deaths? Clinica - a news source for the medical technology industry - wonders what implications that would have for Mexico and the rest of the world.

Clinica is investigating the details and significance of Mexican health ministry statements that the H2N3 influenza virus was responsible for the majority of cases tested in an influenza outbreak in early April, three weeks before H1N1 came on the scene.

The existence of an additional strain of the disease would raise fundamental questions concerning the management of the swine flu epidemic internationally.

Comments made by Mexican health minister José Angel Córdova Villalobos during an April 27 press conference refer to the investigation of an outbreak reported in Perote, Veracruz, on April 2. The response on that day is said to have triggered a local alert and that in looking for the influenza virus, the majority of cases tested were H2N3.

Clinica said they have not been able to ascertain from the health ministry the details behind these assertions, and that they await a response from the World Health Organization (WHO) to a request for feedback related to the presence or otherwise of H2N3 in Mexico, and the potential implications.

In terms of national pandemic control policies, the UK's Health Protection Agency said that its current screening of suspected cases is being targeted at detecting H1N1 and that, in not monitoring H2N3, the presence of this virus would not be revealed automatically.

What would be the implications of undiscovered H2N3 infection, such as in cleared suspected cases of H1N1? Would the co-presence of H2N3 fill in the ongoing gaps in understanding of H1N1's higher mortality rates in Mexico?
From:- Are We Ignoring H2N3? News Outlet Speculates About A Different Influenza In Mexican Deaths (http://www.scientificblogging.com/news_articles/are_we_ignoring_h2n3_news_outlet_speculates_about_different_ influenza_mexican_deaths)

quant
3rd May 2009, 20:11
I think the proper course of action is not to panic! get informed and stay positive :ok:

G-CPTN
6th May 2009, 12:47
The government has appointed a swine flu "tsar" for England to deal with the threat of a pandemic.
He will ensure that the NHS "is in the best possible position to protect the population," the health secretary said.

More at:- BBC NEWS | UK | Government names swine flu 'tsar' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/8035121.stm)

Storminnorm
6th May 2009, 17:14
Here we go again.
We were really "Well Placed" to ride out the effects of the "Crash."
NOW it appears, we are "Well Placed" to counter any "Pandemic."
Is there a set script for this sort of "Disaster Impending" scenario
somewhere in Whitehall?
I think a desert island somewhere beckons me, while all these
"Well Placed" simpletons battle on, Alone!!!!

Cheerio
6th May 2009, 17:35
The Kevin Bacon effect?

I was in the company of someone yesterday, who is the partner of someone who was in the company of someone who has swine flu caught in New York and brought back to the UK. Nothing to worry about I was assured by old Uncle Tom Cobbbley and all. By the time I got home, I see in the news his partner is tested +ve...... Ahhhahhhahhhh......Tishoo!

Anyone else? :}

dead_pan
6th May 2009, 17:36
Has anyone received the much-vaunted leaflet yet? A proper waste of money.

After trying to talk the threat down all last week, the WHO are now trying to talk it up. Talk about crying wolf. Basically its a pandemic of the sniffles.

Hyph
7th May 2009, 15:45
Is there a set script for this sort of "Disaster Impending" scenario somewhere in Whitehall?

Yes there is. And it is the "everything's fine" message you described. For the Government to say otherwise would cause mass panic and civil unrest which would almost certainly create bigger problems.

In an alternate truth-based reality... Gordy says "we're f**ked!"

* - forked, obviously.

Storminnorm
7th May 2009, 18:07
Don't know what we'll do when the Sun goes out.!
Box of candles anyone?
Buy them now, before the rush.

BlooMoo
7th May 2009, 21:47
Swine Flu - anyone still worried? Really? Even though it might come back in a more 'deadly form' later in the year? Anyone?

No, didn't think so.

Just got the UK National 'Leaflet' through the post and guess what? The benefit of the CO2 produced in distributing 30,000,000+ of these is, well, F*ck all?

Especially like the back page (of 10)...

Order Form
To order more copies, translations or alternative formats of this leaflet, fill out this form, cut out where marked, and post it to FREEPOST SWINE FLU INFORMATION (I kid you not for non uk'ers) or call 0800 1 513 513

Now, if you could get as far as understanding that then why the f*ck would you need to get more copies translated?

Now immediately below that on the same page is (in English:})

Please write the number of copies you want next to your choice. eg [1] (maximum 5)

Audio Tape
Large Print
Braille
English <---:confused:
Welsh
French
Polish
Bengali
Chinese
Urdu
Arabic
Punjabi
Somali
Gujurati

And that's not all that's just page 10. I haven't really absorbed the 'set up a network of flu friends' advice nor monitored for symotoms like 'fever, cough, shortness of breath, headache, sore throat, tiredness, aching muscles, chills, sneezing, runny nose or loss of appetite'

Right now it seems I have almost defintely got SWINE FLU. In fact my dad says he feels just fine but I pressed him and it seems that with all probability - he's got it too.:ugh::rolleyes::ugh::rolleyes:

Without a breath of hypocrisy our 'Govt' will lecture and tax us on 'waste'.:yuk::yuk::yuk::yuk:

And then councils will say they have to raise tax to maintain 'service' levels?:yuk:

TBirdFrank
7th May 2009, 22:14
Economic Troubles + Flu Pandemic = End of Economic troubles for drug companies

Flu pandemic very mild - everyone becomes complacent. Panic eases - drug company order book shrinks

Autumn comes round and with it H1N1, or H5N1 or something else - panic button switched back on

Everyone rolls over - heard it all before.

Next line ..............

Best look out for those coded messages - and stay in touch with my mate's mrs - who decodes them for us!

BlooMoo
7th May 2009, 22:21
Economic Troubles + Flu Pandemic = End of Economic troubles for drug companies

I'd say equation is maybe more like...

Economic Troubles + Bollocks :eek: Health Scare > Momentary Deflection of Interest in Economic Troubles + transient respite to drug companies from Economic Troubles.

Dushan
9th May 2009, 13:42
Now immediately below that on the same page is (in English:})

Please write the number of copies you want next to your choice. eg [1] (maximum 5)

Audio Tape
Large Print
Braille
English <---:confused:
Welsh
French
Polish
Bengali
Chinese
Urdu
Arabic
Punjabi
Somali
Gujurati


I'll see your Somali and raise you two Croatians.

Toronto City Hall prides itself that hey have services and pamphlets in 47 languages:ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh:

How do they think that those people who presumably need services in one of those languages function day-to-day:confused::confused:

hellsbrink
10th May 2009, 10:24
Naah, the best one was the last UK census when you could get the instructions in "Ulster Scots"

http://www.nisranew.nisra.gov.uk/census/pdf/UlsterScots.pdf


Would be funny if it wasn't real

Roger Sofarover
10th May 2009, 10:52
It all seems to have gone very quiet on the flu front. Amazing that anything portrayed in the media as such a terrible possible extinction event could disappear so quickly.:hmm:

lexxity
10th May 2009, 11:08
It's just not as interesting as seeing our MP's squeal.

BlooMoo
11th May 2009, 00:23
From 10 days ago in a UK broadsheet - i.e. a suposedly more 'sensible' one ???...

Swine Flu: Inflatable mortuaries and 'express' funerals planned for flu pandemic
(http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/swine-flu/5257719/Swine-Flu-Inflatable-mortuaries-and-express-funerals-planned-for-flu-pandemic.html)


Department of Health projections put the total UK death toll from a pandemic as high as 750,000.

In the event if a mass-casualty pandemic, one of the biggest problems for planners is where to store the bodies when normal mortuaries become full.

Crematoria have also been put on notice to prepare for a pandemic and consider moving toward "24/7 working."


Much like Northern Crock and the then Govt announcements of reassurance as a tipping point, the time to start feeling there's something to worry about is when the Govt/Meeja are actively saying 'don't worry'.

OFSO
11th May 2009, 12:49
"In its heyday, research on SARS - Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome - was inhibited because scientists were unsure who owned the genome - three simultaneous patent claims had been filed. As a result, research on SARS wasn't as vigorous as it might have been. That should scare every sensible person. Here was a contagous disease with a 10% death rate that had spread to two dozen countries around the world. Yet scientific research to combat the disease was diluted - because of infringment of patent fears.

At the moment (written 2008) hepatitis C, HIV, hemophilus influenza and various diabetes genes are all owned by some entity.

Much, if not all, research was carried out at US universities and academic centres, and was funded by the US taxpayer. But today these same institutes have been busy patenting genes and genomes (allowed by the Bayh-Dole act of Congress, 1980) resulting in huge profits (not for the taxpayer of course) and restrictions of research by other institutes and corporations."

So when you are dying of SARS or Swine Flu, or Marburg or Ebola, just remember - there could have been more research into what's killing you - but it wasn't allowed due to patent law: someone owned the copyright and no matter how brilliant or well funded others might have been, they WERE NOT ALLOWED TO RESEARCH YOUR CASE.

G-CPTN
17th May 2009, 19:23
BBC NEWS | Health | Fourteen new cases of swine flu (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/8054476.stm)

FlapsFive
17th May 2009, 21:15
At the number of cases have steadily increased, the newscoverage has steadily decreased... :ooh:

FF

Capot
17th May 2009, 22:38
Well, I guess that the news has been dominated by another herd of pigs with their heads in the trou............

hang on........

Eureka! A Solution! Introduce Swine Flu to the House of Commons, and stand back as its victims self-select.

When the bodies are cleared away, what's left would be a non-swine nucleus of honest MPs for the future. Only 2 or 3, I admit, but it's a start.

tinpis
20th May 2009, 04:46
Don't know if this is just a sick coincidence but....

2007 - Chinese year of the Chicken - Bird Flu Pandemic devastates parts of Asia

2008 - Chinese year of the Horse - Equine Influenza decimates Australian racing

2009 - Chinese year of the Pig - Swine Flu Pandemic kills hundreds of pigs around the globe.

Has any one else noticed this???!!!!!!!!!!!!!



It gets worse........

next year is......

















2010 - Chinese year of the Cock - what could possibly go wrong next?

SDFlyer
20th May 2009, 05:45
OFSO: "So when you are dying of SARS or Swine Flu, or Marburg or Ebola, just remember - there could have been more research into what's killing you - but it wasn't allowed due to patent law: someone owned the copyright and no matter how brilliant or well funded others might have been, they WERE NOT ALLOWED TO RESEARCH YOUR CASE."

Nice point. There's a similar situation in anticancer drug discovery, where certain transgenic models (mutations targeted to particular organs/tissues causing organ-specific cancer to develop in lab animals) have been patented by academics or pharma companies, preventing others from using them for drug candidate screening without paying an astronomical fee. The true clinical utility of these models is unclear but that didn't stop the U.S. Patent Office from issuing the patents.

hellsbrink
20th May 2009, 08:00
2005 9 February 2005 - 28 January 2006 Rooster (http://www.holymtn.com/astrology/cock.htm) Wood (-)

2006 29 January 2006 - 17 February 2007 Dog (http://www.holymtn.com/astrology/dog.htm) Fire (+)

2007 18 February 2007 - 6 February 2008 Pig (http://www.holymtn.com/astrology/pig.htm) Fire (-)



2008 7 February 2008 - 25 January 2009 Rat (http://www.holymtn.com/astrology/rat.htm) Earth (+)

2009 26 January 2009 - 13 February 2010 Ox (http://www.holymtn.com/astrology/ox.htm) Earth (-)

2010 14 February 2010 - 2 February 2011 Tiger (http://www.holymtn.com/astrology/tiger.htm) Metal (+)

tinpis
20th May 2009, 08:27
Depends which chinaman you talking to.

Argonautical
21st May 2009, 15:48
First photo of an unfortunate side effect :-

http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c2/argonautical/swineflu.jpg

MagnusP
21st May 2009, 16:15
Argonautical: I thought the photos on European election leaflets were copyright . . .

green granite
21st May 2009, 16:30
Are you sure that it's the effect of swine flu and not a MP who's had his snout in the expenses trough for too long.

BlooMoo
21st May 2009, 19:45
Interesting that Argonautical's rare colour image of Margaret Beckett circa late 1940s will in all likelhood be a very close match to one of Hazel Blears in 10 or so years time. Spooky or what?

G-CPTN
26th May 2009, 20:39
A man who has been identified as a "highly probable" case of swine flu is critically ill, it has been confirmed.
There was no evidence he had contact with any known case of swine flu and had no history of recent travel.
From (and more at):- BBC NEWS | Scotland | Glasgow, Lanarkshire and West | Probable swine flu man 'critical' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/glasgow_and_west/8068992.stm)

FlapsFive
27th May 2009, 12:54
"severe bacterial infection" ... I thought swine flu was a virus...?

hellsbrink
27th May 2009, 16:57
"severe bacterial infection" ... I thought swine flu was a virus...?


It is, but as soon as you catch it and start fighting it your immune system is weakened so it leaves a chance of another virus/bacteria entering you and taking over, especially if, like that person in the report, you have a "number of health problems"

FlapsFive
27th May 2009, 17:30
fair 'nuff. Thanks

ORAC
1st Jun 2009, 07:38
Torygraph: Swine flu pandemic 'in autumn' (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/swine-flu/5416452/Swine-flu-pandemic-in-autumn.html)

A flu pandemic is likely to strike the UK in September or October, with the virus gathering strength as it spreads, a leading expert will say today.

Professor John Oxford, an expert in virology, said that even though only 229 cases of swine fu have been confirmed in the UK so far, he was certain of a flu pandemic which would take hold as autumn begins.

Children going back to school, universities re-opening and people returning to work after the summer break would give swine flu the "opportunity" it needs, he said. He warned that a pandemic was likely to affect the UK before a vaccine becomes available, adding that the vaccine - which is expected to be ready in October or November - would only cover about 15 per cent of the population.

Prof Oxford, of Queen Mary School of Medicine, University of London, praised campaigns urging people to observe good hygiene - such as using tissues and not coming into contact with infected people - but said they would not halt the virus altogether.

"Problems at the moment are fairly low, with schoolchildren and the odd sporadic case in the community. But when children go back to school in September the virus has an opportunity, and normally it takes it. That's the scenario we should prepare for."

Prof Oxford said children were usually involved in an outbreak because they liked to be in close contact. "Children are very social, they play together and put their arms around each other, they kiss each other. Also, their hygiene levels are not very high."

He added: "I view it [tackling flu] like a medieval castle, with several layers of defence: you've got the outer layer which is hygiene and social distancing, then the virus breaks through that and then we have antivirals like Tamiflu and then the final layer is the vaccine. You chuck all of this at the virus. You can't stop it, but you can slow it down."

Prof Oxford said there had already been sporadic cases which were not linked with anyone coming into the UK from the US or Mexico. "That does suggest that the virus is silently spreading around," he said.

He said the current estimate that 50 per cent of the population may get infected was on the "low side".

He added: "The virus will be like a bushfire."

airship
4th Jun 2009, 00:02
Yesterday, I happened to read this BBC article (http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/ferguswalsh/2009/06/pandemic_getting_closer_says_who.shtml) Dr Keiji Fukuda, WHO's Assistant Director-General, said that the virus had now reached 64 countries with 18,965 laboratory-confirmed cases and 117 deaths.

"We are getting closer to phase six," said Dr Fukuda, which would mean that a pandemic had occurred.

I'm confused, mainly because my understanding of the WHO's explanation of the pandemic influenza alert phases (http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html) Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.

Phase 6, the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way. means that we're already there...?! Considering for example, many of the recent cases in the UK but especially Eton College (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/berkshire/8081136.stm). Add to this the 3 crew members of the cruise ship Pacific Dawn dunnunder (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8076419.stm), then all the cases in N. America we've already heard about, and you might be forgiven for wondering what exactly is going on and whether 'politics' has entered the fray...?!

PS. I've been suffering from a bout of flu over the past week. Meet a lot of international travellers in my job too. Not quite like any flu I've had before. Very strange, mild syptoms, not needed to take any time off work. But I've had a tremendous craving for barbecued (pork) spare ribs - in fact, I've had them 3 times over the past week...?! :eek:

BlooMoo
4th Jun 2009, 00:11
and you might be forgiven for wondering what exactly is going on and whether 'politics' has entered the fray...?!

:ugh::rolleyes::ugh::rolleyes::ugh:

G-CPTN
11th Jun 2009, 16:18
Reduced use of anti-virals and no testing of those in contact with previously confirmed cases - to reduce the risk of resistance and reduce work-load on laboratories.
BBC NEWS | Health | WHO 'declares swine flu pandemic' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8094655.stm)

airship
11th Jun 2009, 16:46
Yeah well, when eventually the WHO, governments and the media decide what to call the initial Meican swine flu H1N1 variant, it'll probably be coming upto winter 2009/10 in the northern hemisphere. :}

All going well, (if, like me and the Pope, you prefer to believe in natural population-control measures, as opposed to Chinese-like official limits on new-borns), this will have allowed the original virus lots of chances to mutate, ideally combining with H5N1.

Forget about what the WHO is there for. And hope that whatever happens, someone has some plans for controlling the spread (nah, as we've already witnessed, noone, the WHO or individual governments have been brave enough to impose any draconian-like measures hitherto. Lucky for them, what's hit us so far is a very mild pandemic.

But what can we all expect from the WHO, and individual governments if (or when) a much more virulent and dangerous mutation appears...?! In view of the laissez faire attitude conducted by all parties to date, not much...?! :eek:

Just hope that you live in a country which has been able to commandeer sufficient doses of whatever vaccines might be effective...?! :sad:

AltFlaps
15th Jun 2009, 08:14
Please tell us why you're posting this here?
How many people have died from normal flu this week?

Do you really have nothing better to do ?

AltFlaps
15th Jun 2009, 10:38
So is the common cold ...

Donalk
15th Jun 2009, 13:38
Please tell us why you're posting this here?

Why on earth should he have to explain anything to you. There is an entire thread running on this issue, which includes, for the most part some topical and informative views. The mods have quite appropriately moved his post here. If you fail to find it newsworthy then move on instead of venting your hostility on someone who is clearly using this forum for the purpose for which it was intended.

If swine flu does not float your boat then consider starting a thread on 'Pig Ignorance'. You would appear to be well qualified.

lomapaseo
15th Jun 2009, 16:09
Heck I thought it was as entertaining as the rest of the thread.

It's useful data.

hellsbrink
15th Jun 2009, 17:27
So it shows how dangerous the pig flu pandemic is, since one person out of 500 has died and even that person has "underlying medical conditions".

How many people usually die of flu every year in the UK, by the way, especially as the reports on the Beeb this morning quite happily stated that the "death rate" was perfeectly normal for seasonal flu?

airship
15th Jun 2009, 18:23
Somewhere on the BBC today, I came across a report suggesting that the 'over 60s' were less susceptible to catching the current H1N1 virus, or at least less vulnerable to serious consequences (I'd have posted a link but try as hard as I did, I couldn't find it again...55° proof).

However, that does introduce another new facet as to what might happen if (or when) the current mild virus mutates into something much more nasty this winter: I'm thinking of all those mainly 'over 60s' who might by virtue of their age have some added in-built resistance to the current (and even future mutations thereof) of the current strain, perhaps by having acquired some immunity from parents born in the early 1900s and previously exposed to the other flu pandemics etc. (or like me, in their late '40s, the offspring of quite old parents - father was 40 when I was conceived)...

So, sometime during the winter of 2009/10, a great pandemic is declared. Those aged 18-40 are falling over 'like pins at a bowling alley' on a Friday night. Those that remain realise their time is short. All the most beautiful women, turn to us healthy older men, seemingly unaffected by it all: "Take me, give me child, raise her, time is short!" or words to that effect.

That should represent for many of us at least, a marvellous period of respite in comparison to many decades of drought and famine...?! I mean, if I can't raise the resulting blighters by meself, there's always social security and welfare right? Only, I just thought, if it's as bad as all that, there'll be a huge reduction in the working population, those that currently pay for the pensions and all for older folk. And maybe the guvermints won't be handing out free cheques and houses for raising young'uns or even pensions like they used to anymore...?! :eek:

To be on the safe side, in order to make the most of a sad but possibly the most frenetic opportunities for copulation (last seen during the era of the Great Plague perhaps) and won't be seen for awhile, I suggest that those who wish to partake ought to consider vasectomies before they get too expensive (like Tamilflu when everyone wants a dose but they ain't available anymore very easily...)?! :uhoh:

PS. And stock up on Viagra, I almost forgot to add...

frostbite
15th Jun 2009, 22:40
All the most beautiful women, turn to us healthy older men


Not quite! Based on the scenario you've suggested, all "the most beautiful women" will have snuffed it and only the older and much less attractive ones will be left.

You won't need the vasectomy either (assuming you can raise the interest) because they'll all be beyond child-bearing age,

Rollingthunder
15th Jun 2009, 22:46
5?

Six I tell you

Hide your babies and grandmothers

Hit the bomb shelters

They're coming

airship
16th Jun 2009, 18:55
Not quite! Based on the scenario you've suggested, all "the most beautiful women" will have snuffed it and only the older and much less attractive ones will be left. Actually frostbite, you've just clarified and in fact, reinforced my initial thoughts on the subject:

IE. All going well, sometime over the winter of 2009/10, whilst lots of younger women who obviously share many genes and attributes with Nicole Kidman, Michelle Pfeiffer and Meg Ryan etc. are now increasingly aware that they might not survive and therefore desperately seek the company of those they would hitherto not normally 'be caught dead with in public'. If only to attempt to ensure the survival of their own lineages...instinctive?! This will be a gradual on-going process, lasting several months. But as you've correctly intimated, they're probably all going to disappear quite rapidly, certainly before the required 9 months...?! So, there won't be any requirements for any additional child-care afterwards!

And hey, what's left here in the 1st World will be in a pretty rotten state anyway. So I reckon when push comes to shove, we too should put all those surviving kids (under-18s) to work, just like they do in many parts of Asia today (perhaps not making Nuke trainers or whatever, but you get the picture?) That'll pay for a few pensions...?! :ok:

ORAC
21st Jun 2009, 10:25
Figures in May (http://www.gccapitalideas.com/2009/05/07/chart-2009-h1n1-swine-flu-lethality-rate-198-percent/) show, as the total level of infection becomes known, that the lethality rate of Swine Flue is 1.98%. By no means as bad as first feared, but still nasty.

The Independent today reports (http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/swine-flu-could-infect-up-to-half-the-population-1711552.html) the Department of Health anticipating an infection rate in the UK of about 50%, with past rates being between 25-35%.

With a UK population of around 65M, that gives a predicted death rate in the second half of this year of between 320,000 to 650,000.

Glad that was a just a press scare we can stop worrying about then......

hellsbrink
21st Jun 2009, 11:48
And please give us the stats on how many die of flu or from conditions made worse by flu every winter, ORAC.

Now, let's disseminate your bit about the Independent article. The figures you are quoting are what the DoH does NOT expect to happen but are preparing for a "worst possible case" scenario. Because previous pandemics have hit 25-30% they are preparing for a 50% infection rate which they do NOT anticipate actually happening, same as they do not actually expect 40% of the workforce to be affected over the whole duration of the pandemic (note, not all at once).

Now, to take things further, let's go to these WHO stats. You have to remember that they will include less-developed countries so you could say that things are a bit skewed when it comes to predicting the total deaths in a country like the UK. In the US, for example, you have 21449 cases of infection resulting in 87 deaths (source, CDC to Thurs 18/06 CDC H1N1 Flu | CDC H1N1 Flu Update: U.S. Human Cases of H1N1 Flu Infection (http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/update.htm) ) and that works out at a 0.405% death rate of persons infected with pig flu.

So how far do you use stats to predict what will happen?

BlueWolf
21st Jun 2009, 12:15
Swine Flu. Bird Flu. SARS. AIDS. Y2K. Global Warming. Global Recession. Weapons of Mass Destruction. etc etc etc.....:hmm::rolleyes::bored:

...same non-event, same mass hysteria, same media sensationalism, same political grandstanding, same pseudo-intellectual bull poo from same pseudo-intellectual bull poo-artists (both qualified and Googleified), same self-righteous panic from aforementioned, same old story - ie, nothing.

What a complete and utter crock. Again.
:yuk::ugh:

Solid Rust Twotter
21st Jun 2009, 14:37
So you won't be buying any of my new bacon lined anti H1N1 tinfoil helmets then, Mr Wolf?:}

quant
13th Jul 2009, 21:31
It has mutated into a stronger form..

all you heathens better make peace with your maker :E

bnt
25th Jul 2009, 14:07
With an alleged 100,000 new cases in the UK in the last week, it's a good time to unveil the perfect one-stop shop for all your Swine Flu needs: Flubay.co.uk: Buy and sell your free flu antivirals and vaccines here (http://www.flubay.co.uk/)

ArthurR
25th Jul 2009, 15:30
Friend of mine has just been diagnosed with it, he's pig sick about it.

Storminnorm
25th Jul 2009, 15:47
It's all very well going on about all the Pig Flu.
What I want to know is how are the PIGS coping
with it? And will I still be able to buy Pork Sausages???
No-one's thought of the after effects at all. I'm Worried.