What would happen if...

[sirhcttarp]

Ok guys, let's for argument sake say...
90% FO/SO's vote NO to COS08 (1080 guys on 99 and 120 guys on 08)
90% Capt vote YES to COS08 (720 guys on 99 and 80 on 08)
remaining FO/SO/CP already on 08 (500 guys)

That leaves the pilot body with:
1340 in Cos 08 and increasing
1160 on Cos 99

Capts voting no is waiting on outcome of court case on age discrimination or thinking of retiring anyway and has the balls to stand up to company and say I don't need your money after 55.

FO's voting yes is nearing 55 and figures that at min, 10 years on FO pay is worth more than BPP for the remainder of his/her career to 55.

What weapons could the company use to take advantage of the fact that the majority of people are now on COS 08?

I can think of some:
1. Come up with a slight pay increase for COS08 i.e. COS12 and nil for COS99 and let inflation wither away purchasing power of guys on COS99 and have the GC vote on accepting the new deal...

2. They know that once the majority of guys are on COS08, that's the last chance AOA has of mounting any sort of joint industrial action to protect COS 99. And so they can do more unilateral actions without any responses.

Any other ideas? Or are the above plausible and feasible within the confines of HK labor law?

[Loopdeloop]

On Cos 08 you'd be looking at F/O pay until you get a command then command pay for the first 3 years which has been frozen anyway (see latest update). On CoS 99 you'd be looking at bypass pay for between 2 and 5 years followed by frozen command pay for the first 3 years. Say you're 3 years from a command now and could expect BPP for 2 of those if you stay on CoS99, then over the next 6 years you'll be up by 2 years worth of BPP on CoS99 whether they freeze the pay or not.......by which time there will, no doubt, be C0S2015 to worry about.

Unless you're approaching 55 or a freighter captain, CoS 08 has nothing for you if your seniority number is over about 1000.

[Frogman1484]

one thing to keep in mind is that:

Most Fo's have more than 20 years to 55 (Ave Age of 34)
In 20 years time legislation will have caught up on age discrimination.

If it does not, when a Captain reached 65, another one on COS99 will also be retiring at 55. Which means that there is going to be this massive training cost in the future to replace the ballooning retirements.

If a majority of Fo's do not sign , there is going to be a huge amount of bypass pay paid, which is another reason why they are going to come back and give a better offer.

This contract is all about to get rid of the bypass pay, nothing else. They know that sooner or later RA65 will come by it self.. They know that they will be loosing the court cases at the labour tribunal. Once they loose that they also know that they is going to be a big influx of claims...very expensive for them.

Do not accept Cos 08, there will be many more chances in the future to get RA65. Stick to your BBP that is the only leverage we have.

[badairsucker]

Very, very good point Frogman.

I've been saying this for a long time. 65 will become LAW in a number of years.


Don't sign anything.

[flatlands744]

Good point Frogman.

I personally have nothing against RA65, it is a fact that it will happen at some point legally enforced or not. What really grips my ***t with the current situation is the way the Co is trying to force RA65 wrapped in with cost saving measures such as SLS. Let's face it the junior guys are always going to suffer when the RA is increased but at least let's try and negotiate a reasonable offer to alleviate some of the pain; I don't think 2 extra years of FO increments cut it when time to command could increase by 6 years+:eek:

My feeling is that yes it is a risk turning down the possibility of an extra 10 years of employment, but I am asking myself whether I am going to want to work to 65, probably not, 60 is my planned cutoff and also do I really want to work for a company like this for that additional time - maybe just maybe there is a better place to be in the future:)

I can see that for some COS08 is the way to go and that is fine, I have no axe to grind with those that think that way, but I believe that there is still scope that a "better" deal will be available in the future????????......

[Numero Crunchero]

frogman, well said.

Without BPP you are not getting 10 more years pay - you are getting 6 or 7 or 8 years more pay for 10 years more work. Because it will take you to 56-58 to earn the same money, NPV wise, as you would have by 55 with BPP. The greater the slowdown, the more 'free work' you are giving CX.

If the numbers above occur then CX will have to deal with 1160 CoS99 Captains in about 2029 - most of the CoS08 captains will already have reached 65. So do you really think you will have no industrial might?

I think people should sign/not sign CoS08 based on personal circumstances, not on some self determined political ideology. Its like working G days, or going into training - unless it is an AOA directive to do or not do something, do what you like. I suggest you all take the hyperbole and political passion out of the equation and do whats right for you - but don't do anything until we approach whatever the deadline ends up being;-) I won't be signing CoS08 - for personal, not political reasons!

[Numero Crunchero]

Here is a numerical example for those less numerically literate with NPV calculations etc. Assume BPP received is about $1.5M over 5 years - from the age of say 40-44. Assume he/she is paying off a mortgage with interest rate of 7.2% or has an investment that pays 7.2% (rule of 72 - divide the interest rate into 72 and that tells you how many years money halves/doubles). So if the FO gives up on BPP by signing CoS08 he will need to earn $4.2M more between 55-59 to replace the money he/she gave up at 40-44.

So a dollar in 5 years time is the same as $2.8 in 20 years time!

clear as mud?