Well done CX

[badairsucker]

Well done CX,

You have totally managed to pi$$ off the pilot body in an incredibly underhanded and pathetic manner.

Using the down turn to screw our terms and conditions whilst during the great times you gave us nothing. The managers have absolutely no morals or respect for a body of professional aviators and I hope you don't achieve what you were hoping for.:ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh:


Come on the AOA, this is your time to shine!!!!!!

[The Professor]

". . . . whilst during the great times you gave us nothing."

During the great times they gave you one of the highest paying jobs around with some of the most attractive bells and whistles to go with it.

Yet this constitutes nothing?

Make no mistake, CX are struggling and will protect the business no matter how upset it may make you.

[Dragon69]

gave you one of the highest paying jobs



Make no mistake, CX are struggling


I would sure like to know what kind of professor you are because by the above statements it is obvious that you are completely clueless!

[badairsucker]

The Professor,

It's a two way street buddy.
We have given them a professional service with loyalty, they gave us nothing, no pay rise during time of economic boom etc.

So you think that as the pay is ok they can treat us like dogs!!! You clearly have a low self esteem. :ugh: that or management.

[4PW's]

It's an amazing site, PPRuNe.

Even more amazing is the utter naivete shown by the majority of posters about the state of the real economy.

Peril is about to overcome the vast majority of the globalised world.

The markets will rally perhaps slightly more, after which all indexes and every market, oil included, will collapse into price oblivion.

Sorry, but that's the way it is. In fact, Cathay's Management is a bit late in coming to the conclusions it has.

Harden up. You're going to need it.

[Dragon69]

What's actually amazing is the utter pessimism displayed by some.

If there is going to be a major collapse as you predict 4PW's any action will not suffice as we will all be eating bread and butter.

Lighten up you are going to need it!

[badairsucker]

We recognise that age 65 is not an immediate benefit to younger offices and so an F/O or S/O on CoS 99 who wishes to sign across to CoS 08 will have the option of doing so without having to apply for SLS.


Cx is using the downturn to cut our COS. NR weekly comic even states if you go onto COS08 you don't need to take SLS......So they really need to save money, eh!

Nothing more than a smoke screen.
4PWs and the Professor, I don't need my KYjelly but you two can borrow it.

[4PW's]

The Dow going down to 1000 isn't the end of the world. What can and probably will do it is the delisting of major companies that now populate the index. That is not the end but, yes, I do need to lighten up. Point taken.

The buy and hold philosophy held true for decades on the basis that if you bought and held stock in 1928 you'd have made out ok in the end. What was not spoken of is that less than 10% of the companies on the Big Board in 1929 were still on the Big Board in 1955.

To buy and hold successfully then, you'd have to have had 100% of all your stock holdings in the less than 10% of the stock on the board in 1928. AND you'd have to have been very patient, with no need for redemptions for a loooong time. Large losses are occuring now. More will follow. That doesn't mean the end of the world. It does mean the end of highly leveraged living and spending way beyond our means, individually and collectively.

What's going on now is not a failure of capitalism but of capitalist's having acted without regard for long-term shareholder wealth, or anyone's wealth for that matter but their own. It is also a failure of regulation, which is why better regulation, I hope, is coming. This is a cyclical phenomenon, but we're talking about a large time frame. So much excess has been laid out that only a deep correction will rebalance markets, worldwide, with the exception of some very uniquely positioned stock markets. Sorry, again, but the watering down of excesses is always painful and it will be no less this time.

Unfortunately, few people are educated on and even fewer lived through the excesses of the 1920's and the decimation of wealth in the 1970's.

It takes a long, long time to write all this down, and I do so regularly, but in the end your jobs and mine as pilots with national and commercial carriers has never been more threatened, along with the system of capitalism which, by the way, has not been discredited but brought to its knees by financial excesses the likes of which are only coming to the attention of an unwitting public now.

Amazingly, the US Federal Reserve is right now announcing the worst of the downturn as being behind us. That is so patently ridiculous it bears mentioning that in July 2007 the very same Fed was also saying we were in the "best times in the best market EVER!". Do a search, you'll come up with the headlines in the major periodicals and newspapers at the time.

That some can say without batting an eyelid that the current turmoil was unpredictable is disingenious at best, scurrilous at worst. Reams of data and comment from those in the know were warning about what will happen, and that which is now happening. These are not trenchcoat-wearing denizens of a some mythical spy novel I'm talking about but actual economists AND market forecasters. You just weren't listening, as you're not listening now.

Of what to do, precisely, is difficult to answer. Positioning oneself now is not too late. In fact if you're actually invested in the markets then now, right now, is the best time you have left to get out. It is not a return of the bull market of yore. Forget the gains you might recover if you hold out another week, fortnight, month, for the markets will not move against the major trend much longer. Get out now, park your money in cash and stop spending.

Cash you say? But what of the all but negative return? Sorry, again, but this is a situation where you should consider the return of your money first, and the return on your money second. But of course, no-one reading this will do so.

I was asked by a reasonably well off, counting millions, pilot colleague what to do with his investments. Yes, there are those fellows about. He almost sold his entire holdings in July 2007 but was waylaid in ringing his broker. Since then he has watched his 401k TANK!!! yet is still fully invested. He hasn't sold a thing and in fact has added to his position since by utilizing that insane perspective of dollar cost averaging. Paralyzed by indecision and inaction.

When I patiently explained, as requested, why we are where we are, he nodded sagely but we have seen nothing acted on. The reason is simple, and he admits it. "If I did so now", the logic goes, I'll lose around $x. That's too much to bear and as his voice tails off he adds a final plea that "maybe it'll go up?"

Hey, lighten up.:ok:

[Saturn]

I was not going to say anything but I guess I will.

I have to agree with 4PW. I think things are going to get worse and the belief that CX or any big company will snap back to the "Good times" is a big mistake. Freight especially will not rebound forever! No more buying things you cannot really afford, including houses and cars, and no more cheap Chinese tainted crap!

Ladies and Gents, this time it is different. I know that sounds silly but the train was wobbling on the tracks a while ago. Like Amtrak the wreck is just an amazing site. Hold on to your hats girls and boys the ride is going to get REALLY bumpy.

As to the company proposal, we all saw this coming! You have two choices, accept it or not. I am no fan of CX as you know but being employed today is better then being unemployed like the millions around the World. You paying your bills, eating and have a roof over your head, then be thankful because a lot of folks right now do not.

It is better than nothing. Perhaps some time off and a trip to less favorable places might put things in perspective.:}

[Air Profit]

...'this time it's different'... uh huh. Yes, this statement usually underlines the failed reputations of many 'oracles' throughout the ages. I seem to remember hearing this in 97', seem to remember hearing it during Sars, seem to remember hearing this many, many times throughout my life.....and guess what, history has a nasty habit of repeating itself. The only reason CX is trying to force through the LWOP and new contract right now is because there are conspicuous signs that the economy is turning for the better. I don't need to get into a debate as to whether or not this is the case, the main point being that NO ONE really knows what will actually happen. CX however probably sees brighter days on the horizon, hence the need to get this in place now...before their lack of legitimacy is plain for all to see. If the cuts are needed because 'times are difficult'...then surely they will agree to return the pay when times improve...right? I'm sure that language is contained somewhere in the fine print....isn't it? Yea, sure it is. Sixty + years of big (BIG) profits seem to have gone walkabout....because they sure don't seem to be around when we may need them. Ask yourselves a simple question: if they have been profitable for the best part of a century...don't you think they could 'carry' their loyal and hardworking staff for a year or so? Interesting how they seem to feel that their salaried staff should suffer even more and give up part of their basic pay, but management seem to think that giving up 'some' of their bonuses (not even part of their basic pay) is somehow to be considered as 'sharing the sacrifice'. I suggest everyone see this for what it is. Don't live in denial...it's not healthy.

[sisyphos]

China, our biggest market in the future, is still growing by estimated 6% in 2009...

[Free Flight]

Dear 4PW,
Some very interesting opinions and analysis, many parts of which I agree with in part and some I believe are unsubstantiated.

The pain in the stock market indices is not over yet - look what will happen when the next bad news is announced which I expect will be the unemployment figures for the US. We will see a further significant fall.

I do not see, however, the freefall and eradication of stocks from the market listings that ocured in the Depression. There will be significant numbers of stocks that are delisted but this will be as a result of returning to private hands - much like the present efforts of Richard Li to take PCCW private on the cheap. You will recognise that the present situation is an opportunity for the wealthy to secure and increase that wealth by taking the low levels of economic confidence in the general population. This is the first time that the much wider share-owning population has experienced such a collapse of the structure of the market.

Going on to other issues, there is no doubt that this GFC IS different. But, the question is " What are you comparing it too?" Anyone who is comparing the present challenge to that of the 1930s depression will have to admit that the total environment and financial market is different to that which prevailed back then. Global electronic trading, computerised trading programmes, the lack of exchange controls, global trading in commodities, the list goes on and on.
As this environment is different to that which occured in the Depression, many of the basic pressures and root causes of the collapse are structurally different. It therefore follows that the root solutions will be different as well.
In the Depression of the 1930s, the industries that were dessimated were the driving forces of manufacturing industry. What we see today is the collapse of the financial sector and the problems that this has brought to the service and maufacturing industries - we have not seen the collapse of the manufacturing industries themselves.
Concerted efforts by international governments and organisations is more effective now because communications and information flows are faster. Now, I think that most of the efforts to try to stimulate the economies of various countries are misguided - giving tax rebates doesn't allow Joe Average to stimulate the domestic economy - he just goes and buys imported goods or saves the money to pay off debt.

Anyway, the basic result of everything I have stated is that the efforts to prevent major structural damage to our basic economies are more likely to be able to prevent the long term slide into another Depression.

Your comments on the dangers of remaining in the market and refusing to accept moderate losses before more comes along are well put and I agree with them.
Cash is King and avoid debt at all times. Invest in "value" - there is a flight to value. Strategic investments are the order of the day - don't thin k of short term appreciation at this time.

Best of luck to all.

[badairsucker]

I don't see CX trying to change the COS of the rest of the employees, just the flight deck.....Strange!!!!!!!!!!


Oh yes, this times different...oh please.


FYI. CX are still recruiting cadets. The cost involved in producing a cadet is massive, why are they still spending money on new staff if we are supposed to be saving money????

[7478]

badairsucker:

the cost of producing a cadet isn't massive at all, roughly AUD200,000.
it's good investment~

[badairsucker]

My point is that all spending was due to cease at this time. An investment in crew when we are cutting back! I can't see why ALL recruitment could have stopped.

I know this is one minor point but all minor points add up in the end. How about the bosses gettting themselves to to work instead of being driven!!

[geh065]

My point is that all spending was due to cease at this time.

Actually they never said all spending would stop. They stated that some projects would still go ahead if they were deemed to be worthy of the expense.