Virgin Blue worth less than a B777

[TIMMEEEE]

Virgin Blue market value slumps as shares tank | Business | News.com.au (http://www.news.com.au/story/0,2,25092768-462,00.html?from=optus+-+3ps_rss)

[Lorditch]

VB should have stayed as a niche domestic carrier and left the long haul operations to established players. Even at this late stage it would not be too late to close down V oz and wear the losses, this probably being preferable to operating half full 777's across the Pacific. It doesn't take Einstein to work out how long it would take to deplete 600 mil of cash reserves (if that is what is still left). Wrong time, wrong place, bite off more than you can chew etc. Time will tell but I am sure most shareholders would be very nervous with the decisions coming out of Brissy. I hope I am wrong but like they say, the writing is on the wall.

[wirgin blew]

Gee TIMMEEEE thanks for your insight. Plenty of other threads already on this. Perhaps Mods should refer you to the other two.

[roamingwolf]

wirgin blew,
There might be other threads but the truth hurts huh.

Anyone else see Branson latest grandstanding yesterday as well as the Honda Formula one joke.

[zube]

Branson seemed more interested in flogging his upcoming health & fitness venture in Oz.

As he insultingly puts it, we here in Oz can't run these ventures as well as he can.

His lack of interest in Virgin Blue was noticeable.

[Mat Finish]

Bransons new health clubs.. 'Fit Virgin' ??

I might win a competition (new Tele?) with this suggestion :}


Mat Finish
never a shiny moment..:suspect:

[markontop]

Any suggestions for the new Voz aircraft? Maybe "virgin on the ridiculous?":ok: Or "on the verge?"

[rescue 1]

US Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke has warned Congress that without the right policies from the government, the US recession could last into 2010.

The Obama Government is taking some steps to improve the economy, so maybe (and its a real maybe) if VB can get through the next 12 - 18 months, VA could become the success story of the recession...

Maybe its time to speculate and buy a few VB shares?

[markontop]

How pollyannarish of you.:sad: Remember Gary Toomey saying Ansett had $1BILL in cash six weeks before they went belly up. It's not the money it's the debt, bankers get very nervous about their exposure to debt laden companies.:(

[KRUSTY 34]

Crikey rescue 1!

The original projection for VA to turn a profit was 18 months. So I don't see how, based on their own forcast, they could become "the success story" untill at least some time after that. That of course was before the economic meltdown, and before the literal evaporation of the market they were pitching to. Now I'm just Joe Bloggs nobody, but I reckon DJ will be lucky to survive without the drain from VA.

I'm afraid that in 6-12 months VA, and hopefully not VB as well, will be just a memory. :sad:

[The Green Goblin]

On the bright side it won't take much work in the paint shop to paint a rat on the tail of those 777's, remember there are still a few ex Ansett ships flying about with the rat :ok:

[ditzyboy]

remember there are still a few ex Ansett ships flying about with the rat

Really, Goblin? :confused:

[dizzylizzy]

I thought all the 300/400's were from TAA?

[Enema Bandit's Dad]

Maybe Qantas might be interested in buying the777's off them? :eek:

[Curved Approach]

this probably being preferable to operating half full 777's across the Pacific


hmmmmmmmmmm, well somehow I dont think they will be half full.....who else takes you SYD - LAX return for $975 including taxes!!!!!!!!!!! that is the cheapest on there at the moment but they were going even cheaper before!

[flyergirl]

The problem is, curved approach, that even at these prices(which are great), people are NOT travelling at all. The projections from June for many airlines (including those such as Singair, as posted in the straits times-not rumour) are quite honestly AWFUL. Just because you can afford the airfare, doesn't mean you can afford the holiday! With jobs being lost in every industry left, right and centre, many are conserving their dough for the basics, not luxury items like holidays.

I wish VA crew all the best and every success.:ok:

[tsalta]

Curved,

The bigger problem is that even if they fill the planes with $1000 return tickets, they will be losing truckloads of money on each sector as they won't even be covering the fuel costs.

Madness with shareholder money.

tsalta

[pylet]

Just working some very rough numbers as I don't fly a 777 or have access to V's fuel hedging, but say it takes 100,000KG of fuel SYD - LAX, at 0.8 that's 125,000L. At AU$1 per litre, divided by seats (350), that comes to just under AU$360.

$1000 return fares will mean minimum $720 just for fuel costs, and that's assuming 100% load factors and not taking into account the extra fuel required for LAX - SYD. These fares would just cover fuel and taxes.

Therefore don't expect these cheap fares as the norm. They're around to gain initial market share at the worst possible time against (soon to be) 4 major carriers.

On another note, nice to see the management spending big on a launch party only a week after 400 job losses were announced......nice touch!

[inandout]

trip fuel 120T and I did go

[Wod]

On another note, nice to see the management spending big on a launch party only a week after 400 job losses for announced......nice touch!


I think that's unfair. The show goes on to bring in the revenue to keep the rest of the employees in work.

Historically the Aus-US market is flat February-March, but starts to pick up ex Aus during April, so the launch isn't too badly timed since the promotional fares aren't diluting otherwise high yield fares.

Overall though, there will be excess capacity, and therefore losses, from July.

[Going Boeing]

Most of the contributors to this thread seem to be unaware that American Airlines also operate the route (via a code share with QF) and it's their considerable marketing resources that contributes greatly to the load factors on the QF aircraft. Also Air NZ operate the route via AKL (they used to operate SYD-LAX direct but not at present) and they attract a significant number of holiday & VFR pax because of their fare discounting. When you add the new Delta operation in addition to the incumbent United Airlines, then V Oz is definitely going to struggle getting any significant yield. They may get bums on seats through heavy discounting but no airline will survive if they can't cover costs.

[Ken Borough]

remember there are still a few ex Ansett ships flying about with the rat

Really? There are a few ex Qantas ships flying about with Jetstar but ex-Ansett equipment at Qantas?

[markontop]

Curved approach you can't be serious; Virgin's normal trick, how many seats are available at this price, and how much do you figure it costs to run a B777/hr? Revenue equals $500/seat at 300 seats. $150,000. You reckon it costs $10,000/hr to run a B777. Do you work for Virgin money?

[lizzydizzy]

always said virgin blue and any associated companies were "on the cheap"..... got the moet in the cupboard for when the inevitable happens... Anset all over again. ....if i was exsiting staff id be taking all yor holiday entitilements now while the money is there

[Getzo]

:ouch:It looks a bit Blue at Virgin Flew:sad:

G

[markontop]

I guess Branson must be reaching for the sticky tape to fix the "this virgin bride is not for sale cheque" Hindsight:ok:

[Mikeb744]

QF A380
UA B744
Delta B777 ( Starting June / July)

I think V Australia has a uphill battle! Especially launching in the Low Season IE missing school holidays.
It is tradition that Americans like American "Things", ie they would prefer to travel on there own carriers. QF picks up alot of business as it has A1 Saftey Record.

As a Consumer, i am glad they are flying, as a Empolyee of QF, i hope V Australia goes under :)
Considering i was told SYD/MEL/BNE - LAX Route accounts for 20 - 30% of our total Profit.

[Mr. Hat]

as a Empolyee of QF, i hope V Australia goes under

never understood pilots wishing other pilots to be out of work

[John Citizen]

I also hate to see pilots out of work, including all those in the Virgin group.

However V Australia declared war on Qantas to start with.

Quote from news article December 17 :

V AUSTRALIA has fired the first shot in a new ticket war with Qantas ....

Whats the idea with the red tail ? How original. Are they trying to brand themselves as a new image/alternate Qantas !!

How about all endless arrogant cheap shot remarks made by Virgin towards Qantas in their advertisements or by Branson himself.

If they are happy to declare war with Qantas in such an arrogant way, then I can understand why a Qantas employee would be more than happy to see them loose.

Isn't this what a war is about ? Remember, they started it !!

Why not work together as friendly competitors instead of declaring war with one always putting the other one down.

When did you last see a Qantas add or CEO having a cheap go at the Virgin group or making any comparison "we are better than them....blah blah" ?

Sorry Branson, but Qantas might have the last laugh, I hope they don't, but if they do, they got every right to do so I think.

[CSTGuy]

One thing is definately crystal clear about V Oz - there's not a virgin in sight, cause the operation and the mother ship looked pretty f#@ked to me.

12 to 18 months max and then it'll be everyone elses fault - QF, the fed gov., the US gov, the credit crunch...etc. In my opinion VB are just a bunch of amateurs who believe the fake image they see in the mirror. But with a Grand Poobah like Branson who has thrived on such Teflon imagery, its no wonder that all VB people from him down believe the same crap.

But as a few have alluded to in this thread, even Branson's attitude to VB seems to be waning. Without the spiritual head leading the cult in trumped up self belief, its only a matter of time till a mass suicide will be planned.

PS. No EMB incident for 3 days - whats going on? Any time soon no doubt.:ok:

[flyby]

Hi John if you believe every thing the press say woe to you.:O

By the way Qantas are most certainly not saints and have in the past opted quite ruthless tactics when it came to competition.

Isn't this what a war is about ? Remember, they started it !!

Aahh the old you started it arguement , im pretty sure this is how most wars start isn't it.

Any how chin up lest you didn't lose loved ones in the Victorian bushfires,
Big Picture People.:ok:

[markontop]

If anyone would like a non sanitised branson biography read this book by Tom Bower. It is revealing. Needless to say he threatened to sue but couldn't - it was true. BTW this book costs half as much as his multiple self inflating ones.:D

[Mr. Hat]

Just media hype mate its hardly a war. Branson drops in tries to rev up as much free pubilicity as possible and then leaves. In reality I think both QF and VB do work together on some things (spares ect).

One thing is for sure is that QF VB and the rest need to work together to get the Government to ease up on all the ridiculous fees levys and charges they have on the sector. There is a limit to cost cutting and leaning out companies.

I'd rather see both aussie companies do well than the American ones.

I don't think Virgin is a threat to the massive Qantas machine.

Yeah the colour of the tail is a poor choice i agree.

[dizzylizzy]

... lets not forget the continued insults about Q at their annual b'day party... infact a certain CCDM was silly enough to upload it onto youtube for all to see. What a coincidence that its since been removed, only last week though. For those who aren't sure what I'm referring to lets just say "like a virgin"

[John Citizen]

Hi John if you believe every thing the press say woe to you.....Just media hype


Ok, so maybe the quote from a media article was a bad example.

But how about all the Virgin group advertisements you have all seen bagging out Qantas ?

Here are some quotes from an email I recently received from "velocity rewards" titled "Have you heard from Qantas"

If you're a QANTAS Frequent Flyer you may.......
So please don't be spooked by the QANTAS.......


Thats nothing but arrogant I say.

Do you ever see Coles and Woolworths bagging each other out ?

I can only believe this arrogance from the Virgin group comes through from the very top (Branson) and down. It sure fits his style.

As such Qantas got every right to have pleasure to see V-Australia go down if V-Australia / Branson / the Virgin group always want to make mockery of them. No offence to V-Australia pilots and I wish you all the best of luck.

[Qantas 787]

Lets face it - V Aust's biggest asset this week was Branson. He alone brings in 4 times the media coverage than normal. The media love him, he is a great interview........he got the best possible publicity for the airline this week.

I don't know what the future will be for V Aus - I know that if things are worse than we are being told, they won't reveal it to the public. Remember - survival of the fittest. As for the exchanges this week, it has all been V Aus taking shots at all airlines. Sometimes it is not worth getting into a pointless slanging match.

[wirgin blew]

Just media hype mate its hardly a war. Branson drops in tries to rev up as much free pubilicity as possible and then leaves. In reality I think both QF and VB do work together on some things (spares ect).


Branson is the face of Virgin and draws the crowds. I would have to say that he probably should be concerned about his empire as things are looking bleak worldwide for his Virgins.

The main reason he is so interested in V-OZ is the round the world airfare that he can finally offer. VB was just a vehicle to gain such approval. Now that he has that it doesn't really matter what happens to VB does it?

[AN Flyer]

dizzy lizzy

I thought all the 300/400's were from TAA?

Indeed, they are now - however from memory, (and only just as the years are passing quickly) - I recall that Jetconnect took two Ansett 733's, VH-CZR and VH-CZS, which were quickly renamed ZK-CZR and CZS for domestic ops in NZ. Both were temporary "fillers" at a time when Jetconnect could lease them cheaply from either AN direct or the aircraft's lessors. Both departed within a year or two of the collapse. A similar deal was done with VH-CZQ, which went to DJ in the same rego.

QF mainline also wet-leased VH-BZI (new 763 delivery to AN) which arrived just after ops ceased. Operated with an AWAS crew and left within a few months.

Anyway - back to topic :)

[yowieII]

So does anyone have a real lifespan on the big V's ventures?

[hotnhigh]

V Australia considers slowing its 777 deliveries (http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2009/03/01/323236/v-australia-considers-slowing-its-777-deliveries.html)

[Mikeb744]

Why does everyone associate Branson with DJ ??
He sold out a lonnnnggg time ago.
Untill recently, he only had a 4% share.

When Toll wanted to sell it, hey said he had no interest in buying it! I now believe he has around 20% ???? anyone confirm ?
He isnt stupid! Saw the writing on the wall

The Virgin name is owned by Singapore too - Once again - a Smart man selling out.
He was in town for the launch of his "Virgin Fitness Centre", seemed alot more interested in that than V Australia is you ask me.

DJ was a good LCC, then they went to the self professed "New World Carrier" and tryed to compete with QF, thats when things started going down.
From a all B737 Fleet - To B737, E-170's, E-190's now B777, a pathetic attempt of a business class seat ( folding the middle seat up ????? - do they really think business people are stupid) and Lounges.

[John Citizen]

Why does everyone associate Branson with DJ ??

Maybe because it was founded by Richard Branson :ooh:

Maybe because Richard Branson is still the president of both Virgin Blue Holdings and Virgin Blue :ooh:

[Thylacine]

It is a sad reflection on a profession that one would normally associate with objectivity and application of rational argument that so much bile and misdirected hatred is to be found on this forum.

By all means comment on the viability of the operations if you have the expertise to do so but if all you have to contribute is a gloat, then as it has been noted in a similar post, get a life.

And finally; be careful for what you wish lest it come true, as none should feel so secure as to think they are immune from a potentially similar fate in the current economic climate.

[Phlap1]

To all you red rat gloaters I say this

You will all be on Jetstar terms before too long, so
relax and watch how real competition operates.