Goodbye Dubai: World's Worst Business Idea

[nolimitholdem]

Prescient Dubai Article (http://smashingtelly.com/2009/02/15/bye-bye-dubai/)

Short of opening a Radio Shack in an Amish town, Dubai is the world’s worst business idea, and there isn’t even any oil. Imagine proposing to build Vegas in a place where sex and drugs and rock and roll are an anathema. This is effectively the proposition that created Dubai - it was a stupid idea before the crash, and now it is dangerous.

Dubai threatens to become an instant ruin, an emblematic hybrid of the worst of both the West and the Middle-East and a dangerous totem for those who would mistakenly interpret this as the de facto product of a secular driven culture.

The opening shot of this clip shows 200 skyscrapers that were built in the last 5 years. It looks like Manhattan except that it isn’t the place that made Mingus or Van Allen or Kerouac or Wolfe or Warhol or Reed or Bernstein or any one of the 1001 other cultural icons from Bob Dylan to Dylan Thomas that form the core spirit of what is needed, in the absence of extreme toleration of vice, to infuse such edifices with purpose and create a self-sustaining culture that will prevent them crumbling into the empty desert that surrounds them.

Dubai is a place for the shallow and fickle. Tabloid celebrities and worn out sports stars are sponsored by swollen faced, botox injected, perma-tanned European property developers to encourage the type of people who are impressed by fame itself, rather than what originated it, to inhabit pastiche Mediterranean villas on fake islands. Its a grotesquely leveraged version of time-share where people are sold a life in the same way as being peddled a set of steak knives. Funny shaped towers smatter empty neighborhoods, based on designs with unsubtle, eye-catching envelopes but bland floor plans and churned out by the dozen by anonymous minions in brand name architects offices and signed by the boss, unseen, as they fly through the door. This architecture, a three dimensional solidified version of a synthesized musical jingle, consists of ever more preposterous gimmickry - an underwater, revolving, white leather **** pad or a marina skyscraper with a product placement name that would normally only appeal to teenage boys, such as the preposterous Michael Schumacher World Champion Tower.

But if there is one problem with the shallow and the fickle, its that they are shallow and fickle, they won’t put down deep roots and they won’t remain loyal to Dubai. The people who appear in People magazine need to be told what is cool by Wallpaper magazine who in turn will discover something after the hipsters have moved on. The problem is that Dubai was never hipster-cool and is no longer Wallpaper-cool. This realization will have the same impact as suburbanite bachelorette party in a Wallpaper-cool nightclub. It will spread like the sighting of a floating turd in a public pool, flushing people to the exits with silent panic, unacknowledged for fear of embarrassment.

As people scramble for the exits in Dubai, there is no ‘key mail’, like in America, where people can often mail back their house keys and walk away from a mortgage without the immediate threat of jail. People are literally fleeing this place, to date leaving 3000 cars stranded at the airport with keys still in the ignition. And the reason for this is that if you default on your Dubai mortgage, you can end up in a debtors prison. Perhaps Dubai will at least create a new Dickens?

Beware, beware!!
:=

[skysod]

Yawn! yawn!

[Spoonius]

And your point is??

[Sal-e]

They're renaming Dubai, Don't-bai:}

[allaru]

Seems to be the latest Jurno trend to write scathing articles about Dubai.

Jermaine Grier's recent rantings based on a Big Bus tour she recently took in Dubai is a classic example.

Yes Dubai has always had its problems, and no doubt the emphasis will now shift to Abu Dhabi, but the fact remains that when the economy picks up the 'shallow people' (including those Jurnos) will be back in droves, for the same reasons they came in droves in the first place, to escape the Ghettos that have been allowed to proliferate in western countries over the years thanks to a total disregard of national interests by our politicians.

Contrats to the Sheikh for continuing to hold his head up high in view of current circumstances...you have our support.

[Wiley]

I have to agree with allaru. There seems to be a degree of gloating involved in these articles, as if the writers are glad to see those expats and locals who, (in the journos' minds at least), did not deserve the success and good life they were enjoying when Dubai was booming.

While I acknowledge things aren't good, I have to say I've yet to encounter deserted roads or empty restaurants.

The problem with 24 hour news channels is that when they go into gloom and doom mode, (as they are are now), they become self-fullfilling. After 24 hours in a hotel room where the Beeb and CNN are the only English language TV available, one could be forgiven for looking for the nearest high window ledge to jump from.

[wapses]

Spot on. What a great article. The guy has got it absolutely correct.

[Hook]

For what it's worth, although I have some serious concerns about the future prospects of our jobs etc. I am actually quite relieved at what's happening in Dubai. It's becoming a "normal city" (well, sort of) again, pretty much like it was about 15 years ago.
Lately it was getting nauseating constantly hearing "we have the biggest, the highest, tallest, most expensive etc etc etc (some of which was not actually true - amazingly last week an advert proclaimed that Dubai Mall is the biggest in the world - not the case at all).
It's nice to be able to live here without constantly being in the spotlight ( don't mean me but the city!!). Or going home on leave and friends back there talk of Dubai like it was simply amazing, basing their opinion only on what they saw during a 24 hour stopover or some documentary on TV.

As for congrats to the Shk for keeping his chin up, i'm not sure about that. The emirate's finances are in a complete mess and someone needs to take the blame for it. Where's all the "amazing vision" gone?????:ugh::confused:

[Trader]

Where is the vision gone???????????? The worlds financial system is a mess and somehow Dubai's ruler is at fault???

There is no doubt there was/is a bubble in Dubai. Had things come to a climax with the world markets in a different state the situation would be much different. It would be a good healthy correction. Everyone, everywhere is caught up in this led by the Americans and British and, like it or not, Dubai is going to have to weather it like everyone else.

The Dubai bashing is rather symbolic of the trashy media these days who love to take down anyone, anyplace that was once in the spotlight.

I find it ironic that it is the British press leading the charge since their banks were the most overleveraged of all the world banks and are leading the way to riping new aholes for their poor average citizen in the UK. They should turn their time and attention to good reporting about that issue rather than trash talking Dubai.

[5star]

If there would be freedom of press in Dubai, you might get a more unbiassed report by newspapers.
I'm afraid the rulers here are digging themselves a big big hole in the sand by restricting reporters. After reading the GN, I always get the feeling... guys wake up.
If you see in what a mess the UK and the US currently are, I'm afraid the worst is yet to come to Dubai.

[Jet II]

If there would be freedom of press in Dubai, you might get a more unbiassed report by newspapers.

wouldn't help the international press though would it?

We've seen reports recently from international papers written by people who haven't even been to the country - whether Dubai has press freedom is irrelevant to them.

It might make the local papers be a bit more critical but as the media is now international does any restriction actually have much effect nowdays?

[Martin1234]

As people scramble for the exits in Dubai, there is no ‘key mail’, like in America, where people can often mail back their house keys and walk away from a mortgage[..]

Isn't the "key mail" one of the reasons why this downturn started in the first place? :ooh:

[fatigueflyer]

Guys, Dubai 10-15 years ago was not a bad place. I still remember those days with great fondness. I understand that the emirate will never return to the past as too many changes have occurred since but I for one am still confident that Dubai will bounce back. There are many critics viewing their opinions now as Dubai is an easy target for doom and gloom but watch this space!! I have no mortgage, loans, properties nor am I a citizen of the UAE but I have many friends and consider it my home so rather than adopt the Dubai bashing attitude, I would always choose to make the most of it. There are a lot worse places in the world to be right now, facing recession and economic downturns AS WELL AS PAYING TAXES FROM ALREADY ERODED SALARIES!!! Look on the bright side...:)

[White Knight]

Well said fatigueflyer:ok:

As for the 'key-mail' - well, if you can't afford the mortgage then DON"T take it:ugh::ugh::ugh:

[L1011]

Fatigue flyer I do agree. Us Greybeard's do miss the 'old Dubai'. The demolition of CBV was the precursor for the plastic horrors that followed. Most EK pilots never knew the charming seaside city that kept us here.

Hubris is the best word to describe it all.

Mr. Stick - the construction of the 'world's tallest building' is almost always a sign that the crash is coming. The Empire State, WTC, KL Petronas were all completed amidst a real-estate debacle. Over-tall buildings are a symptom of a bubble, easy credit and ridiculously inflated values. They almost never pay for themselves, and developers almost never learn from past mistakes.:ugh:

The scary part is that KL has never really recovered and it is over 10 years since the crash there.

[MrMachfivepointfive]

Mike, As always you are so right. Hope to see many more DXB sunsets with the likes of you.

[alkatifa]

Leaving dubai hu? Do come to Portugal though....things are just peachy here.......... (!NOT!)

[disconnected]

If you think Dubai is bad then follow this link:

Hydra Properties defends price hike for Village homes - Real Estate - ArabianBusiness.com (http://www.arabianbusiness.com/547288-hydra-properties-defends-price-hike-for-village-homes)

Read the comments and see what happens in Abu Dhabi. It is even worse!

[Krypton]

Ok besides the warning, I dont see any aviation relevance here, the post would be more appropriate in a real estate forum, I guess.

[Marooned]

BBC Business:

More than half of the residential and commercial property projects in Dubai due for completion by 2012 have been put on hold or cancelled, a study says.

Property company Jones Lang LaSalle says a lack of funding, job cuts and a fall in population are the cause of the delays and cancellations.
Dubai's property market has seen a sharp downturn recently after years of rapid development and booming prices.
The report shows vacant office space has doubled in the past six months.
Hotel occupancy rates have also fallen to a five-year low. Jones Lang LaSalle expects the residential property market to suffer further in the next three months.


Krypton: Of course it has relevance to aviation as EKs growth has and remains inextricably linked to that of the Emirate.

We're taking a dozen or so 777s this year with only one extra destination. We have to take the aircraft as there are heafty penalties if we don't. With capacity increasing throughout the Gulf and decreasing yields on most routes then it might not be long until the Airline itself hits the wall.

[Flygulfair]

I just hope they return the QE2 to the UK instead of scrapping her, and she could return back to my home town southampton :}

[ferris]

As posted elsewhere on this forum, AD bailed the Dubai govt out to the tune of $10 Billion on 23rd Feb. The reuters article points out that clearly AD will have to continue to support the neighbours, lest they lose that money. If they were going to let them sink, they would've done so without putting any of their own cash in. What price they will extract for that support- methinks they will want more than 4% (the bond yield)??
10 BILLION DOLLARS buys lots of leverage when talking about airline mergers, etc.

[JuniorMan]

Someone mentioned CBV!!!! I grew up there and have such fond memories of that place!!!! I have never been back to Dubai, but it is always on my mind.

[Marooned]

I agree that if EK hits the wall the door through it will be provided by our neighbours.

It is a question of national pride and ego but a 'strategic alliance' makes sense in many ways.

The plan to link Jebel Ali Apt in both directions by the metro-rail system is an indication that some sort of cooperation is already taking place. The airport itself has the land to expand well beyond the next few decades. It could be the UAEs international hub but there are other factors not least Qatar and Gulf Air who do have significant political influence on any decision especially as far as AUH is concerned.

Whilst it may make sense to many to merge, sense and the ME have seldom coexisted...

[White Knight]

And what exactly is the influence that the mighty Gulf Air and Goat have politically over AUH:confused::confused::confused: Can't see that myself!!

[GBB]

Bahrain is a "Number ONE" place for Saudi "tourists", and Qatar is in general just a circus. They have nothing to say in UAE.
Dont you think Gulf Traveler would be still in AUH if Gulf Air (Bahrain) had so much to say...