Taking bets on how many FTO's and AOC's will be lost.

[fluffy5]

Sitting here bored, in my snuggly warm tax free enviroment and hearing the impending doom financially of alot of operators in the Uk. Can I be proven wrong, are there operators out there that see 2009 as a profitable year.
Training school's with more money to pay on fuel, less incoming students because they can't get there hands on the cash as their house goes into negative equity, and with many other financial restrictions.
The corporate market as I've heard rumours is nose diving, how many young bright eyed newly Cpl's are going to get kicked in the n**s :sad:, and realise the money they have spent with no future in sight. Also many old boys that have been on the commercial circuit for years, fully I.R'd up when suddenly the company owner or aircraft owner were in property, banks or manufacturing, and can no longer afford these outgoings.
Can this simply be a downturn for the next 2 years, 5 years ......
As we know it's always the rotary side to recover last. So send me your views, on how you think the companies will weather 2009.
Instead of Dear Deidre, Dear Fluffy will do :E

[Heliringer]

I don't know about the UK but here in Australia we are as busy as ever.
I've done 78.2 hours in the last 28 days.

[choppertop]

...how many young bright eyed newly Cpl's are going to get kicked in the n**s...

So older pilots will stop retiring, right? And NS companies will only replace from the bottom with 8,000 hour ex-corporate guys?? Is that what you're saying?

The really dismaying part for young bright eyed guys like me is the terminal pessimism which is endemic on this forum.

C-top

[Camp Freddie]

hey fluffy,

I also wondered how these corporate operators are doing right now, particuarly the big 3 around london, I heard anecdotal evidence that they were much quieter and 1 had laid some pilots off.

is this true ? anyone know what is the truth about how business is affected, in percentage terms since the same time last year?

regards

CF

[R44-pilot]

The really dismaying part for young bright eyed guys like me is the terminal pessimism which is endemic on this forum

Agreed!

If it wasnt for new cpls alot more intructors would be out of a job!

Way to inspire new pilots fluffy :D as trying to make it as a pro pilot want hard enough.........

[fluffy5]

HI Camp Freddie,
yep have heard the rumour mill about the big 3, as we know if you talk the man in management everyone is doing wonderfully well. The indicators is the sudden c.v's that get hurled around by some very experienced pilots, the lack of aircraft movement and the company aircraft up for sale.
Unfortunately I am not being negative about the situation that young cpl's will find themselves in, it is a standard baptism of fire to get your foot into the first place of work. It may be a little difficult this year.

[nigelh]

Sometimes pessimism can be understated ....and in this case it may well be . It is only sensible to make someone think again if they are about to sell or mortgage their house to get a cpl . There are now loads of very experienced pilots not working and dropping their rates if they are freelance . I know of plenty who were v v busy 6 months ago but done nothing for the last 3 months . I have just sold my 350 due to no work when for the last 2 years i have had plenty . We will always feel the pinch quicker here due to being swamped with beaurocracy and costs . I will guess that 50% of aoc,s go out of business in the next 12 - 18 months or at least just drop their aoc . Hope i am wrong but i have had one call for a flight in last month:eek:
ps the top end twin market will survive as their users are mostly recession proof.

[fluffy5]

The negativity about becoming a new cpl should not be the case. what I am stating is because of the financial situation looming in the uk, the want to be pilot will have difficulty in finding the financial resources to accomplish his dream which will have a knock on effect to the training organisations. If the poor chap has gone to a training provider and they have promised he will make the same amount of cash as a lawyer flying around in a jet ranger, then he will need to research a bit more before parting with his cash.
Any newly cpl's my word's are " This is a lifestlye change, not a financial one "
Anyway going off the subject.

[fluffy5]

Hi Nigelh
Yes that is what I am hearing about the top end of the market, depending on who was into property and instead of keeping there aircraft now are simply paying to use someone else's partly.
maybe the one's that can afford will not buy their own aircraft, and simply buy some time on an aircraft. As I know one or two companies that are offering this service.

[mikelimapapa]

Fluffy,

I echo your concerns on this side of the pond as the assistant chief instructor of a small school (4 R22, 1 R44) in florida. Given the current state of the economy, I don't see how we will be in business much longer, without some sort of outside investment. New students has trickled down to nearly zero and creditors are constantly calling. In addition, I'm on the low side for qualifying for a commercial job, 1250hr TT, at a time when most companies seem to be raising there minimums. Its to the point where I'm just hoping my boss can make payroll on friday.:sad: We shall see.

Mike

[ROTORVATION]

I'm guessing 60% of onshore UK AOC holders will not be here within the next twelve months, and 40% of TRTO/FTO training establishments.

Whats my winning prize if I'm right?

[fluffy5]

Well I have to go out now, drink beer with lots of fillipino girls. your prize will be to come out here and I will get you lots of fillipino girls,
how's that !!:}

[fluffy5]

Oh I'm back for a moment, the little dragon is putting on her make up.
seriously what countries are seeing a down turn in their business ?
fluffy.

[ROTORVATION]

Sounds like a superb prize to me! My passport is a the ready.

Developing your enquiry Fluffy, how many UK pilots are out there with a CPL(H) not working at the moment. Lodge a post & let us know your Total Time, Turbine Time, and whether your IR'd.

RV

[Droopy]

Anyone know if the recently announced cuts at JCB have affected their aviation department?

[windowseatplease]

http://www.pprune.org/rotorheads/328511-you-busy.html

[organ donor]

South Africa is busy as ever, not yet been hit by the downturn over here yet. It may well still come though, but for the meantime everyone seems to be working flat out.

[WylieCoyote]

Fluffy,

Good to know the heat hasn't affected your brain, but if I were you I'd stick to a bucket and spade to play with in all that sand!;)

For those who think Fluffers is been a little pessimistic then I'd have to agree with him that the next couple of years will be hard for anyone trying to find work let alone a fresh CPL...but it is silly season and come April everything will be much rosier...right?

One school of thought is that the wealthy American and Euro types will be liking the exchange rate and spending lots of time over here (playing Golf probably..yawn!) Which should provide some work.

I think FTO's will struggle, especially those who rely on students requiring loans to fund their training rather than the gentlemen flyer who is pursuing a hobby rather than a career.

Banks are unwilling to lend to companies aswell which restricts a companys ability to compete within the market.

My prediction is a 50% reduction in the onshore industry as regards training and charter, HEMS e.t.c I believe to be a continuing if not expanding market.

And no I don't want a Fillipino thanks.:)

[helimutt]

Heard through the grapevine that one of the JCB's 76's is up for sale but has been for a while as they have the newer model now. Far as I know, they still have the 5 pilots on staff, and not been word of job losses for them as yet.
All ruomours and supposition though, heard 2nd hand, etc etc:ok:



I reckon ROTORVATION's numbers could be pretty accurate, but wouldn't be surprised if it gets worse.

[fluffy5]

Hi just got back, won't take long drunk fillipino lady to attend too.
I don't thing's are far off with the predictions of 50% of fto's going down the pan in the next twelve months. At the moment as it sounds the US and the UK are going to feel the hit first.

fluffy

[fluffy5]

And yes, had a near brush with JCB a few years back, got warned off from her ladyship " small beastie with big pointy teeth " alledgelly. if that is spelt correctly I will be amazed as I have had to many beers now. My name is not fluffy5 but head of the CAA.Even if that does not work I'm just a poor helicopter pilot that cannot afford a solicitor.

Fluffy

[FLY 7]

There will be testing times, inevitably with some casualties.

Others will survive the worst through prudent management and lower costs (fuel, interest rates, etc, although exchange rates work both ways).

Can't help thinking that there is too much talk of 'doom and gloom', especially by the BBC, which is erroding the most important factor in any economy - confidence.

[Need money]

Interesting Conundrum - lower costs SHOULD mean lower prices to allow people to afford more flying ?? (Has fuel come down yet ?) As a student I have not yet seen any of these reductions trickle through to me ?

Less customers - may mean higher prices to cover those same fixed costs through less flying hours - but that puts off more people from more flying !

[FloaterNorthWest]

Need Money,

Yes fuel (at least AVTUR) has dropped recently. Our delivered fuel has dropped from 55p to 39.5p a litre in 2 months.

You will probably find that airports will not be passing on the decrease to prop up any profits (or reduce loss) due to the tough financial times.

FNW

[fluffy5]

Yep, with the lowering fuel cost's for only a particularly short time. The airport and service companies are not going to be passing on the price reduction, in fact in 9 month's time they will probably go up again. Also the small G.A. airfield's around the country will have a real hard time, with having to put up landing fee's or even handling charges, or worse case cease to operate. Think how that will impact are corporate role, " drop the punters off at the hotel, and I can just pick up the fuel I need at, Oh bugger there shut now ! "
But at least you won't have property developers trying to snap them up at the moment.
fluffy

[OffshoreHeli]

What a pessimist I bet you check the obituaries to make sure you are still alive. Ha Ha:=

[fluffy5]

Just heard from a few people that a southern company is having big difficulties at the moment, and no I'm not a pessimist, just a realist. If pilots see what is going on around them, they can plan what their next move will be.

fluffy

[fluffy5]

Just got a cv through on my desk from, a person who actually run's the company, up north. well known company. I do hope his pilots know what is going on.....

start the count at 1 Aoc/ fto down.

fluffy

[helimutt]

I heard a rumour that a co. on the south coast UK has had one a/c taken off them by the owner for non payment/lack of use, and this could lead to further problems for them. That might mean the count will be at two soon!:E

[tecpilot]

As i hear around there are a lot of non british - but european hotshots preparing to storm the island for flight training. The reason simple, the strong devaluation of the GPB. More than 20% down in 3 months :} Seldom got so much fun for my Euro than in the last months in Iceland and Norway.

Now i'm steering to LCY next week.

Unfortunately there is nothing left for me in flight training. Therefore i decided to buy out London on a corridor from LCY to Wembley and to impress the ladies with real money.

Be prepared :\ after monday and hide the girls! :suspect:

[Camp Freddie]

hey fluffy,

just between you and me, who is that from up north then, who wants a job?

regards

John

[misterbonkers]

John by Depol?

[fluffy5]

Hello Camp freddie,
I have Pm you back, did you recieve. It's not a surprise. There will be alot of one man bands folding by the summer. Rising fuel costs again, airport fee's increasing and less punters with the finance.

fluffy

[fluffy5]

Yep PDG, the scare mongering about the company. A good mate works for them, it is not as bad as people think. In fact PDG have done the smart thing and actually looked forward and pre planned for this, not like the majority of companies that are purely reactionary.

fluffy.

[P1DRIVER]

F5
Think your being a bit optimistic. I think there are quite a few pilots here that think this is my last flight today and AM I GOING TO GET PAID.
ITS NOT LOOKING GOOD. :ouch::ugh::ugh::ugh:

P1D

[helimutt]

So, did you get paid and was it your last flight?:confused:

[Storm No More]

Heard a rumour that a helicopter operation at shobden is down to a 4 day week can anyone confirm?

Times are tough, I hope they pull through

[fluffy5]

Hello Again,
Now at the begining of 2010, are we any better off in the UK market.
I think not, in fact this will be a worse year than 2009.
The training organisations have just had a delayed reaction of the kick in the nuts from last year. From the amount of aircraft up for sale in helidata alot of owners are desperate sell.
Tiger on a 4 day week, Coventry airport up the swany, aeromega very small turn over, patriot barely breathing and who else is going to try and survie this year.
Anyone desperate enough to pay for their own IR still.
Have talked to some experienced free lance all twined and IR'd up old boys, and they are not being called anymore.
Today fluffy 5 the grim reaper of a positive market place........:}

[HeliCraig]

Wow - fluffy5's prediction of doom this year is 5 days later than last!

In other news, I have heard the world will end 10:05 this morning. Its been a blast folks!! :D

[Heliringer]

It can't be too bad PDG are looking for a AS350 pilot with sling experience.

[SECRET SERVICE]

I've got to admit - I often wonder how the very small operators such as EBG Helicopter, AV8 Helicopters and Thurston, etc... keep on surviving considering they are FTO/TRO/charter (mainly with SE) ops only?

SS

[John R81]

All depends on the volume of work taken
That depends on the quality / price and marketing
That depends on management, caliber of owners / machine, and the student base

I expect that almost everyone has some reduction / shrinkage, but what we are interested in is both relative performance of the business and how close to "cash exhaustion" (the usual reason for bankrupcy) the business comes. You may find that some of the smaller operators did better last year comparatively than some of the larger operators (less costs, more personal relationship directly with owners & students, nimbler on their feet to diversify offerings which still sell). You may also be suprised to find that a number of the smaller operators had less risky business models as their fixed cost exposure is lower.

Enough speculation! Anyone want to post "fact" from their operation?

[fluffy5]

I thought I would bring back this old thread, seems quite fitting now.

Fluffy

[Camp Freddie]

fluffy might be depressing but i think his prediction was pretty good,a few examples i can think off are: premiair have turned into a slow moving train wreck, cabair have gone completely, anyone who has been to cranfield recently must be surprised by how quiet it is, i was at elstree last week and saw nothing going on at all on a nice good weather day.
the single engine charter market appears to be well down still and i bet twin charter is too although the companies involved wont admit it of course.
its quite a hard sell these days to convince someone that spending a £100k on flight training is a good idea, especially since we have lovely EASA now taking away your type ratings when 3 years expired.